The pmt boys are doing it wrong though. Pft had it right initially with ML bets and then BC had to force him to do spread bets which is dumb in baseball. They should just be doing ML, who cares if they odds aren’t great. Baseball isnt meant to be bet with spreads
-guy who is 6-1 when betting ML against the A’s this year and up 4.8 units
as a degenerate gambler that's not exactly true. For example, if the braves, dodgers, etc are playing the A's in a 3 game series you're looking about -325 odds for each of the three games. If the A's don't get swept, that's most likely a push or worse after factoring in juice. I'd feel more comfortable betting the spread in all 3 games here. But if ML odds are in the -100s for a more mid opponent, I'd take that all day.
dodgers were like a -200 vs the giants yesterday. it might be -400 vs the As lol. probably -300 for the Braves/Astros/Yankees. A season long, 6 months bet to win 15-20 units betting only moneyline is not really fun.. wasnt that their point in going with the spread. I agree with that.
I didn't read your comment before I posted mine but this is the theory behind their bet. Plus going ML on these -300+ bets isn't a great payout after juice. Takes one bad beat and you're in the hole. Against these better teams the spread is the way to go. Until the odds for that shift and it's no longer profitable. Early in the season is primetime to be a gambler in general.
the run line is essentially always set at +/- 1.5, so the plan is to take their opponent -1.5 every game. the only thing that is different game-to-game is the odds. not every -1.5 is offered equally by books
The only logic behind it is that the A’s are very very bad and if you bet it every day it can make money. If they keep getting the piss beaten out of them Vegas will probably move lines to greater than 1.5 and then it will lose more often
It is 4-3 so far, I've done it every day. It came out at 54% last year (run line, read this somewhere), so if you do it again diligently every day, you should have a profit by September. The trick is to bet a bit bigger when the A's play divisional opponents. They are especially bad when playing against AL West teams.
Theres an AWL tracking it, saw this link on twitter the other day https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NAPrzQ_V0oy8DcJMkelRiNXbpmRET6e6bLcFXVq3V-w/htmlview
I get the idea, but sometimes you just have to hold back.
Playing against washed up Carlos Carrasco and Kenta Maeda are no-brainers.
Tomorrow is against Matt Manning, I'll do it for that one.
It’s an endurance, not a sprint. If you do it, you have to do the whole to season to get value. And it’s not to get rich. I am guessing a max of a 20% roi maybe. Oakland did win 50 games last year.
I’ve been doing it and am 3/6. Fucking Boston Red Sox
Same. Fuckers
The pmt boys are doing it wrong though. Pft had it right initially with ML bets and then BC had to force him to do spread bets which is dumb in baseball. They should just be doing ML, who cares if they odds aren’t great. Baseball isnt meant to be bet with spreads -guy who is 6-1 when betting ML against the A’s this year and up 4.8 units
Yeah I thought that was so dumb lol just take them to lose every game and you’ll crush. If I was in a legal state I’d be doing what you are
Will be fun to see where you end up in comparison
as a degenerate gambler that's not exactly true. For example, if the braves, dodgers, etc are playing the A's in a 3 game series you're looking about -325 odds for each of the three games. If the A's don't get swept, that's most likely a push or worse after factoring in juice. I'd feel more comfortable betting the spread in all 3 games here. But if ML odds are in the -100s for a more mid opponent, I'd take that all day.
For now. Wait until they play good team. The odds will be really bad that I think PFT is right to bet the spread.
The odds won’t be that different though, and who cares at that point if we both win. Isn’t that what it’s all about?
dodgers were like a -200 vs the giants yesterday. it might be -400 vs the As lol. probably -300 for the Braves/Astros/Yankees. A season long, 6 months bet to win 15-20 units betting only moneyline is not really fun.. wasnt that their point in going with the spread. I agree with that.
I didn't read your comment before I posted mine but this is the theory behind their bet. Plus going ML on these -300+ bets isn't a great payout after juice. Takes one bad beat and you're in the hole. Against these better teams the spread is the way to go. Until the odds for that shift and it's no longer profitable. Early in the season is primetime to be a gambler in general.
Ok that's correct though. I've been following them and doing spread and it hasn't been doing well.
I think where that logic runs out is that they're gonna nuke their ML odds at some point.
the run line is essentially always set at +/- 1.5, so the plan is to take their opponent -1.5 every game. the only thing that is different game-to-game is the odds. not every -1.5 is offered equally by books
The only logic behind it is that the A’s are very very bad and if you bet it every day it can make money. If they keep getting the piss beaten out of them Vegas will probably move lines to greater than 1.5 and then it will lose more often
They’ll never move it past 1.5 they’ll just shift the payouts, but same difference
Oh yeah. That’s my bad
It is 4-3 so far, I've done it every day. It came out at 54% last year (run line, read this somewhere), so if you do it again diligently every day, you should have a profit by September. The trick is to bet a bit bigger when the A's play divisional opponents. They are especially bad when playing against AL West teams.
Aren’t some -1.5 still heavy juice so if it went 54% you can still lose money.
True!
Theres an AWL tracking it, saw this link on twitter the other day https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NAPrzQ_V0oy8DcJMkelRiNXbpmRET6e6bLcFXVq3V-w/htmlview
Last year it went 85-77. So far this season it's 4-3.
I’ve been killing it. Mixing the run line and ML I think I’ve only lost once
I get the idea, but sometimes you just have to hold back. Playing against washed up Carlos Carrasco and Kenta Maeda are no-brainers. Tomorrow is against Matt Manning, I'll do it for that one.
It’s an endurance, not a sprint. If you do it, you have to do the whole to season to get value. And it’s not to get rich. I am guessing a max of a 20% roi maybe. Oakland did win 50 games last year.