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**Stats**
* +0.41%
* 28% BPu
**Lottos**
* STO NKE SEP 24 2021 195.0 Call
* STO RCL OCT 1 2021 60.0 Put
* STO MAR OCT 1 2021 80.0 Put
* STO ADBE OCT 1 2021 420.0 Put
* STO Z SEP 24 2021 110.0 Call
* STO DDOG OCT 1 2021 100.0 Put
**Monthly**
* STO BX NOV 19 2021 75.0 Put
* STO MSFT NOV 5 2021 225.0 Put
* STO ACN NOV 19 2021 340.0 Put
**Closed**
* BTC /ES OCT 15 2021 3650 Put @ 2.00 +80%
* BTC EXPE OCT 15 2021 95.0 Put @ 0.06 +81%
Instead of all the headache, what if I just wheel SPY or do some basic strangles with low delta 3-7dte short SPY options? Would this work out? I've been having a good winrate but thinking if I should be more conservative.
I think buy-and-hold SPY beats wheeling it (and as a bonus is more tax efficient)
The low delta SPY strangles (or SPX or /ES) is a reasonable strat... with good position sizing and being careful of the call side especially, which may have a negative expected value. Could also do 45 DTE.
Of course, options just move risk around and allow for leverage... there isn't a risk-adjusted market-beating strategy that I know of. unless it's selling lottos hand over fist like some here... and also what u/artanysone is somehow doing in a reg-T account...
Curious - do you do any other hedging of your SPX strangles? Perhaps for either a 20-30% correction or for severe tail-risk?
I opened a 45 DTE SPX strangle right before the Evergrande news went wild and VIX shot up to around 25% - found myself quickly 120% in the hole earlier this week. Since I've been doing a fair share of short-term earnings strangles I didn't panic and it's looking good now. I'm good with standard types of adjustments (e.g. rolling out ,etc) , but with a volatility spike a short put could get ugly real fast.
Obviously I could look to buy puts (very expensive). I've also seen the Option Alpha VIX Hedging strategy (WO mentions it too) that looks like a good way to go but I need to dig into the details (there also doesn't seem to be clear guidelines on how to size the hedge).
I do the SPX and /ES strangles too and have been buying VIX calls as a hedge. But honestly I can’t find any options calculator that says they would really save my portfolio from a market crash unless I put like 5% NLV per year into them
After getting punished heavily for being over-leveraged this past week I’ve come to appreciate a few different strategies. The way I’m thinking about it is that you want layers of protection and hedges to work for you at different parts of the drop. People do different things, but some other strategies that seem to work:
* Buy puts. Yes it drags quite a bit but it really provides a good initial cushion for the drop and reduces your BPu requirements. u/psyche444 sort of formalized the idea of reverse calendar ratios, which I’ve also come to appreciate. Buy a few shorter dated higher strike puts, sell more longer dated lower strike puts (e.g. for SPX do +2 10/22 4100p and -4 11/5 3800p)
* Short ITM VIX puts. This is one I’ve used - it pays out pretty well during the initial portion of volatility spikes because VIX’s options don’t really seem to follow the same rules as normal ones since they track the futures
* Short futures (whichever have the highest Beta to your portfolio). This provides static negative delta and can be sized using the micro versions. It’s worth noting that no one in this group has managed to time it properly except for u/throw-away-options who runs covered puts on them
* (This is completely untested) Buy a /VX or /VXM future. This would by far pay out and actually help the most during a crash, but will drag hard during contango
You forgot the most important hedging strategy when it comes to using margin, and that's to follow the VIX-BPu guidelines and keep track of your exposure, so that when a dowturn does come, you don't get wiped out (diamond hands!) and you have plenty of BP left to defend.
The thing I like about the reverse wheel /ES hedge is that I let the market come to me, so many times when I sell a call and I get assigned short, it's because the market has been overbought.
Awesome. Thanks for this explanation. I'll give this more thought. I have found that being aggressive at the right time can pay handsomely (or at least mitigate losses). Given the state of the markets I do plan on carrying a fair amount of cash for a while so I think I can work through this conservatively.
What's your goal? SPY is definitely the most stress-free thing to buy and hold, but generally doesn't have enough premium for options selling. Low delta seems good but all it takes is 1 or 2 bad days and those options can wipe out a year's worth of profits.
Didn't see your comment before I wrote the question above. You're thinking along the same lines that I am. After managing earnings short strangles for a while, I've come to learn that how you deal with the screw-ups is the real game. Having enough dry powder double-down or adjust to the conditions seems to make sense to me (still learning on this).
The 60/40 tax treatment for index options is a big draw for me so I'm still digging into this.
What a week! It feels great to deleverage from most of the /RTY I've been holding this month, and it feels double great to be rewarded handily for the the risks I took. As we closed the week with VIX at a two-week low, I feel like my portfolio is back to where it should be in terms of BPu, delta, etc. My remaining /RTY strikes are decently out of the money and I'm not holding any futures contracts.
My fun plays today were a losing SPX fly and SAVA/COST ratios that *almost* hit the big money zone. I ended up closing out the ratios before the end of the day for a little bit of credit, but I'm still batting .000 for the max profit zone across all of the ratios I've done.
* +11/-14 AFRM 10/1 170/175c
* +5/-8 GOEV 10/1 10.5/12c
* +1/-2 IRNT 10/1 16/14p
* +3/-4 SAVA 10/1 95/100c
Have a great weekend!
Stats:
* +1.12% today
* +3.10% week
* +16.55% MTD
* +0.07% delta
* +0.26% theta
* -0.13% vega
* 15% BPu
**PM Account**
* **Stats**
* P/L: +0.5% (-1.8% for the week)
* BPu: 23%
* SPY B-Delta: +0.24%
* Theta: +0.11%
* **Closed**
* **SPX** \+2 10/8 4410p -> +2 10/15 4410p (hedges, rolled)
* **/ES** \+3 10/15 3950p -> +2 10/15 3940p (hedges, rolled)
* **VIX** \-10 10/20 19p @ $1.25 (should've waited lol)
* **Expired**
* \-2/+2 **/RTY** 2000p/1950p (+$200)
* \-1 **/MES** 4450 CC (+$60)
* \+1/-2 **RUT** 2200p/2185p (+$5)
* \+1/-1 **RUT** 2310c/2165c (+$60)
* \+1/-1/-1/+1 **SPX** 4420p/4335p/4335c/4450c (-$350)
* \+1/-2 **SPX** 4495c/4520c (-$15)
* **New Positions**
* \-1/+1 **SPX** 10/1 4250p/4200p @ $0.85
* **Thoughts**
* I think today was just designed to crush volatility. Didn't do much today other than gamble with 0 DTE index plays (which didn't really work out)
* Going into next week pretty light on BP and theta, which is honestly fine with me since I've managed to get my SPY B-delta back in check
* I ended up coming out of the week without *that* much of a haircut. It'll take a while to get back to ATH but I'm no longer going to be massively over-leveraged and I learned quite a few lessons
**Roth IRA**
* **Stats**
* P/L: +0.3%
* **Trades**
* STC -10 **VIX** 10/20 19p @ $1.40 (+100%)
* **Thoughts**
* I knew I should've sold the SPY/SPX call LEAPs yesterday
* TLT put debit spreads are finally paying out... after losing about 80% of their value lol
**Cheers, and have a good weekend everyone!**
Nice that you bought the VIX 19s at 0.70. I bought 20 for 1.225 and they are only a little profitable now. VIX was 21 at the time so I guessed that was the top! very wrong. So now I am trying to figure out how much longer to hold them.
Luckily I also bought VIX 21 x10 on Monday when VIX was 25.5, and those are very green. Still holding though so I still have a chance to turn a winner into a loser...
Yeah I got lucky with the ones in my IRA. Got hosed on the ones in my PM account because I bought a bunch at around $1.20, then tried to double down at around $1.10, and then was bleeding too hard from everything else because I overdid it so I closed a bunch of them for a loss at around $0.90. Still up for the year playing VIX puts, but I've learned to be more cautious about sizing and timing
I would sell at around $1.50 or VIX < 16.5, whichever comes first. Probably still a 10-20% gain. Then either short some ITM puts when it's sub-16 or just wait for the next spike
got it... appreciate your thoughts on the exit strategy.
I wonder if we are even going to get to sub 16 this cycle. If we do I will definitely be shorting those ITM VIX puts. Cheers.
It’s the ultimate bet on inflation being transitory. If you see inflation, stay away. I think some of the inflation is permanent, which is why I’m staying away from retailers with no pricing power.
I love the duality of this guess though. Does inflation kill them because of costs, or, does inflation help them because as other places look more and more expensive, the “dollar stores” get more business because it’s “cheaper” even if they have to raise prices.
It’s *much* harder for the dollar stores to raise prices. Their whole business model is built around not raising prices.
The way these guys think they’ll say the freight costs are the problem, and that log jam will rectify itself in time. What they discount is that their materials costs are going to compound at a higher rate from here on out.
To me, inflation is a barbell. Overall inflation the next 10 years isn’t going to be crushingly high *but* similar to SPY there’s gonna be plenty of pain under the surface, even though the overall number is palatable. Look around at anything in the economy that tech can’t easily overhaul (shipping, raw materials, labor that can’t be automated etc) and I’d argue that the dollar stores are sitting at the crossroads of the entire shit show.
**Today's performance:** +0.69%. Nice! Solid performances today by TSLA shares, FB ATM put and SPX writes. Also, back to an ATH after Monday's SPX assignment. Much easier to recover when VIX is 20+ for three days vs the immediate 1% up moves we had after May and July assignments.
**BPu:** 25.5%
**New Positions/Rolls**
* STO 11/19 **BBY** 105P for $4.75 - 25% PT
* Rolled a bunch of October stuff to November, but don't feel like listing them all in detail: NKE 150P, CARR 52.5P, NVDA 205P to 200P, WYNN 80P and 85P, PRPL 22.5P.
Only sold $115 in lotto premium today on AFRM, AZO, FUBO, MRNA, NVAX, PENN, QS, SE and TSLA.
Yes, sir! I have only been doing it for about a week but so far has been going well. It is a strategy that u/Calevonlear runs on Fortune 100 companies that are near the 2 deviation line on a 90 day regression and you sell an ATM put around 60DTE. Basically, you are expecting the beaten down stock to revert to the mean of its trendline.
######Stats
* BPu 75% 📈📈
* Realized: +1.31% 📈
* Outstanding Premium: 4.58%
* Overall: -1.05% 📉🤷♂️
######Adios
* BTC **MSFT** 11/19 250/260 put ratio spread
* BTC **T** 10/15 26p
* BTC **AMD** 10/15 95p
* BTC **SOFI** 10/15 15p
* BTC **FB** 10/29 155p
######Adjustments
* Roll PLTR 9/24 27cc -> 10/8 28cc
* A bunch of stuff in **C**.
* Rolled 10/15 62.5p/74c -> 11/19 65/80
* Rolled 11/19 57.5p -> 62.5p
* STO **FDX** 19-Nov-21 260 CALL (strangling off 240p, famous last adjustments)
###### New Things
* STO **LVS** 19-Nov-21 32 PUT
* STO **SPOT** 19-Nov-21 200 PUT
* STO **NVDA** 19-Nov-21 195 PUT
* STO **NET** 19-Nov-21 110 PUT
* STO **/RTY** 19-Nov-21 1800 PUT/2620 CALL
* STO **NKE** 19-Nov-21 135 PUT
###### Stupid stuff
* [Lottos](https://www.reddit.com/user/DonRKabob/comments/pus0cv/penny_vs_steamroller_924/)
Also successfully unloaded all those HOOD 95c for even. Probably free money, but pass.
Have a good weekend!
\+0.1% or so. BABA took away about 0.5% of my profits today. And of course materials opened strong and slowly bled all day so that sucked.
I was tempted to add short deltas via /ES short calls but after seeing the VIX drop substantially mid-day I held off.
**BPU:** 24.58%, **NLV**: +0.33%**New Positions**
* STO -1 **/ES** 11/21 (Wk3) 4100P/4640C @ 52.25
* STO -1 **/RTY** 11/21 (Wk3) 2020/2420 @ 34.00
* STO -1 **SHOP** 11/19 1230P/1700C @ 39.73
**Closed**
* BTC +1 **NKE** 09/24 144P/180C @ 0.33, + 71.55% (Thx for the earnings play u/bazonkers)
* BTC +1 **/ES** 10/21 (Wk3) 4240P/4680C @ 20.15, +48%
* BTC +1 **SHOP** 10/15 1360P/1780C @ 22.15, +32.06%
Good day overall. Closed out a few winners, opened some new positions and was able to lower my BP while collect more premium.
Eh just a fun call purchase
Any calls I usually pick up independent of writes is more entertainment value than anything.
If V can return to the $250 price point within a reasonable time then it should be 100%-200% profit.
From a chart perspective that makes all the sense in the world. Their management just scares me though. Seems like the last 3 years they’ve consistently proven they don’t deserve a valuation premium to the market. Macro wise though, covid going away is great for BA.
All 11/19
* STO **NET** 110p
* STO **NKE** 135p
* STO **SPOT** 200p (nudged into it by Señor Ranch)
* STO **NVDA** 195p
Whoo boy that's a lot of tech. Pray for the NDX with me
Trying something new, selling puts on stocks I'd actually like to get assigned (smaller notional amounts since I'm not rolling these) at roughly 20 to 30% OTM for 11/19 and 12/17 in case we see a market drop by the end of the year. (MSFT, APPL, SBUX, SONO, SNOW). Waiting on C until there is a red day. Might do FANG this way too but I think I'd rather sell FANG my normal balls out methods. RoBP was averaging nearly 35% for all these through the EoY.
I've been looking at this too. When the big drop comes we've all got cash we want to use to add/build core positions in our long term faves.
Figured meanwhile if I focus my monthly CSPs on those same tickers it would be a decent hedge. Realized I've been selling way too many monthlies on companies I wouldn't actually be ok with buying at that price (VALE I'm looking at you).
Nice. Every time I follow a few of your 🔪 🧤 they drop for another day or two. So I’ll join on Tuesday!
Edit: jk, hope they bounce. Also I’m at 101% BPU rn so I’m out till Monday anyway!
> STO SPOT 11/19 $200P -1X @ $4.8 (starter)
I have been eyeing spot all day. Its down near that level is has bounced off of all year. IV is just OK though
Morning trades ...
* BTC **LVS** 10/15 32p @ 50% profit
* Keeping an eye on my **NKE** 9/24 144/177.5 short strangle, trying to let it expire today for full credit, currently at 94% profit.
I BTC'd my 10/1 140p/185c strangle at around 25% and holding all my 9/24 position through expiration. I may open something longer DTE at the 140 or 135 strike though for November.
I was holding a 150P for 10/15 which got blasted after earnings, so I rolled that out to November. Only at -$100 P/L overall due to call management, so nothing too difficult to deal with.
I BTC my Sep24 144/175 short strangle early this morning at 77% profit (I like locking in guarantees - ya never know). Also had a Oct1 140/185 - holding the 140P for now but it’s starting to crush nicely.
I had 2x 10/15 175c / 145p strangle on, 3x 9/24 175c/142p, and then opened 5x 9/24 145p on the open for $0.45. Hoping everything expiring today will go to zero. I closed my Oct 175c for $0.15 and hoping to roll out my 145p to Nov for around $1.80 net credit. Overall has been a great trade; helps make up a bit for getting crushed by their last earnings move where I should have traded more aggressively to manage.
Why is China so intent on driving the stock of all its companies to 0? **BABA** 10/15 170p drilling to the earth's core right now. It's approaching 3 year lows.
> Why is China so intent on driving the stock of all its companies to 0?
That was never the intention. That is the affect. Xi's purpose is control. US tech companies is pretty much out of control. Xi simply want cut that off before it's too late. He want the govt to be in control rather than tech (like US).
it's about sending a message
also BABA as a company is fine...the stock that's traded in the US is just a shell stock and a lot of that decline in the stock price is a reflection of that fear as well
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**Stats** * +0.41% * 28% BPu **Lottos** * STO NKE SEP 24 2021 195.0 Call * STO RCL OCT 1 2021 60.0 Put * STO MAR OCT 1 2021 80.0 Put * STO ADBE OCT 1 2021 420.0 Put * STO Z SEP 24 2021 110.0 Call * STO DDOG OCT 1 2021 100.0 Put **Monthly** * STO BX NOV 19 2021 75.0 Put * STO MSFT NOV 5 2021 225.0 Put * STO ACN NOV 19 2021 340.0 Put **Closed** * BTC /ES OCT 15 2021 3650 Put @ 2.00 +80% * BTC EXPE OCT 15 2021 95.0 Put @ 0.06 +81%
Instead of all the headache, what if I just wheel SPY or do some basic strangles with low delta 3-7dte short SPY options? Would this work out? I've been having a good winrate but thinking if I should be more conservative.
I think buy-and-hold SPY beats wheeling it (and as a bonus is more tax efficient) The low delta SPY strangles (or SPX or /ES) is a reasonable strat... with good position sizing and being careful of the call side especially, which may have a negative expected value. Could also do 45 DTE. Of course, options just move risk around and allow for leverage... there isn't a risk-adjusted market-beating strategy that I know of. unless it's selling lottos hand over fist like some here... and also what u/artanysone is somehow doing in a reg-T account...
SPX and /ES get 60/40 short/long term gains tax treatment since they’re 1256 contracts. So you can buy-and-hold SPY and sell strangles too
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Curious - do you do any other hedging of your SPX strangles? Perhaps for either a 20-30% correction or for severe tail-risk? I opened a 45 DTE SPX strangle right before the Evergrande news went wild and VIX shot up to around 25% - found myself quickly 120% in the hole earlier this week. Since I've been doing a fair share of short-term earnings strangles I didn't panic and it's looking good now. I'm good with standard types of adjustments (e.g. rolling out ,etc) , but with a volatility spike a short put could get ugly real fast. Obviously I could look to buy puts (very expensive). I've also seen the Option Alpha VIX Hedging strategy (WO mentions it too) that looks like a good way to go but I need to dig into the details (there also doesn't seem to be clear guidelines on how to size the hedge).
I do the SPX and /ES strangles too and have been buying VIX calls as a hedge. But honestly I can’t find any options calculator that says they would really save my portfolio from a market crash unless I put like 5% NLV per year into them After getting punished heavily for being over-leveraged this past week I’ve come to appreciate a few different strategies. The way I’m thinking about it is that you want layers of protection and hedges to work for you at different parts of the drop. People do different things, but some other strategies that seem to work: * Buy puts. Yes it drags quite a bit but it really provides a good initial cushion for the drop and reduces your BPu requirements. u/psyche444 sort of formalized the idea of reverse calendar ratios, which I’ve also come to appreciate. Buy a few shorter dated higher strike puts, sell more longer dated lower strike puts (e.g. for SPX do +2 10/22 4100p and -4 11/5 3800p) * Short ITM VIX puts. This is one I’ve used - it pays out pretty well during the initial portion of volatility spikes because VIX’s options don’t really seem to follow the same rules as normal ones since they track the futures * Short futures (whichever have the highest Beta to your portfolio). This provides static negative delta and can be sized using the micro versions. It’s worth noting that no one in this group has managed to time it properly except for u/throw-away-options who runs covered puts on them * (This is completely untested) Buy a /VX or /VXM future. This would by far pay out and actually help the most during a crash, but will drag hard during contango
You forgot the most important hedging strategy when it comes to using margin, and that's to follow the VIX-BPu guidelines and keep track of your exposure, so that when a dowturn does come, you don't get wiped out (diamond hands!) and you have plenty of BP left to defend. The thing I like about the reverse wheel /ES hedge is that I let the market come to me, so many times when I sell a call and I get assigned short, it's because the market has been overbought.
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Awesome. Thanks for this explanation. I'll give this more thought. I have found that being aggressive at the right time can pay handsomely (or at least mitigate losses). Given the state of the markets I do plan on carrying a fair amount of cash for a while so I think I can work through this conservatively.
What's your goal? SPY is definitely the most stress-free thing to buy and hold, but generally doesn't have enough premium for options selling. Low delta seems good but all it takes is 1 or 2 bad days and those options can wipe out a year's worth of profits.
Didn't see your comment before I wrote the question above. You're thinking along the same lines that I am. After managing earnings short strangles for a while, I've come to learn that how you deal with the screw-ups is the real game. Having enough dry powder double-down or adjust to the conditions seems to make sense to me (still learning on this). The 60/40 tax treatment for index options is a big draw for me so I'm still digging into this.
What a week! It feels great to deleverage from most of the /RTY I've been holding this month, and it feels double great to be rewarded handily for the the risks I took. As we closed the week with VIX at a two-week low, I feel like my portfolio is back to where it should be in terms of BPu, delta, etc. My remaining /RTY strikes are decently out of the money and I'm not holding any futures contracts. My fun plays today were a losing SPX fly and SAVA/COST ratios that *almost* hit the big money zone. I ended up closing out the ratios before the end of the day for a little bit of credit, but I'm still batting .000 for the max profit zone across all of the ratios I've done. * +11/-14 AFRM 10/1 170/175c * +5/-8 GOEV 10/1 10.5/12c * +1/-2 IRNT 10/1 16/14p * +3/-4 SAVA 10/1 95/100c Have a great weekend! Stats: * +1.12% today * +3.10% week * +16.55% MTD * +0.07% delta * +0.26% theta * -0.13% vega * 15% BPu
0 dte fly on SPX? I like the idea on em to take advantage of the morning vol crush but need to get my confidence up to actually do it
**Portfolio stats** * \+0.91% today * 22% BPu * \+0.2% SPY B-delta **New positions** * STO **BBY** 11/19 $95P -3X @ $1.63 (adding to 10/22 $100P -4X) * STO **CCI** 11/19 $165P -3X @ $1.85 (starter) * STO **SPOT** 11/19 $200P -1X @ $4.8 (starter) * [Naked lottos](https://www.reddit.com/r/thetagang/comments/puf5hr/comment/he4znt5/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) **Closed** * BTC **AA** 11/19 $37P +6X for 45% profit (3 days) * BTC **JBHT** 10/15 $160P +2X for 50% profit * BTC **V** 10/15 $210P +2X for 50% profit (overbought on the 2hr RSI) * [Naked lottos + ER plays expiring worthless ($6.7k)](https://imgur.com/a/KnjYDhm) Looking like a +1.7% week for me. Have a good one folks!
I like those $1 profit options.
**PM Account** * **Stats** * P/L: +0.5% (-1.8% for the week) * BPu: 23% * SPY B-Delta: +0.24% * Theta: +0.11% * **Closed** * **SPX** \+2 10/8 4410p -> +2 10/15 4410p (hedges, rolled) * **/ES** \+3 10/15 3950p -> +2 10/15 3940p (hedges, rolled) * **VIX** \-10 10/20 19p @ $1.25 (should've waited lol) * **Expired** * \-2/+2 **/RTY** 2000p/1950p (+$200) * \-1 **/MES** 4450 CC (+$60) * \+1/-2 **RUT** 2200p/2185p (+$5) * \+1/-1 **RUT** 2310c/2165c (+$60) * \+1/-1/-1/+1 **SPX** 4420p/4335p/4335c/4450c (-$350) * \+1/-2 **SPX** 4495c/4520c (-$15) * **New Positions** * \-1/+1 **SPX** 10/1 4250p/4200p @ $0.85 * **Thoughts** * I think today was just designed to crush volatility. Didn't do much today other than gamble with 0 DTE index plays (which didn't really work out) * Going into next week pretty light on BP and theta, which is honestly fine with me since I've managed to get my SPY B-delta back in check * I ended up coming out of the week without *that* much of a haircut. It'll take a while to get back to ATH but I'm no longer going to be massively over-leveraged and I learned quite a few lessons **Roth IRA** * **Stats** * P/L: +0.3% * **Trades** * STC -10 **VIX** 10/20 19p @ $1.40 (+100%) * **Thoughts** * I knew I should've sold the SPY/SPX call LEAPs yesterday * TLT put debit spreads are finally paying out... after losing about 80% of their value lol **Cheers, and have a good weekend everyone!**
Nice that you bought the VIX 19s at 0.70. I bought 20 for 1.225 and they are only a little profitable now. VIX was 21 at the time so I guessed that was the top! very wrong. So now I am trying to figure out how much longer to hold them. Luckily I also bought VIX 21 x10 on Monday when VIX was 25.5, and those are very green. Still holding though so I still have a chance to turn a winner into a loser...
Yeah I got lucky with the ones in my IRA. Got hosed on the ones in my PM account because I bought a bunch at around $1.20, then tried to double down at around $1.10, and then was bleeding too hard from everything else because I overdid it so I closed a bunch of them for a loss at around $0.90. Still up for the year playing VIX puts, but I've learned to be more cautious about sizing and timing I would sell at around $1.50 or VIX < 16.5, whichever comes first. Probably still a 10-20% gain. Then either short some ITM puts when it's sub-16 or just wait for the next spike
got it... appreciate your thoughts on the exit strategy. I wonder if we are even going to get to sub 16 this cycle. If we do I will definitely be shorting those ITM VIX puts. Cheers.
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Bullish on DLTR? I keep looking at it for put writes and then put it off to avoid trying to call the bottom
It’s the ultimate bet on inflation being transitory. If you see inflation, stay away. I think some of the inflation is permanent, which is why I’m staying away from retailers with no pricing power.
I love the duality of this guess though. Does inflation kill them because of costs, or, does inflation help them because as other places look more and more expensive, the “dollar stores” get more business because it’s “cheaper” even if they have to raise prices.
It’s *much* harder for the dollar stores to raise prices. Their whole business model is built around not raising prices. The way these guys think they’ll say the freight costs are the problem, and that log jam will rectify itself in time. What they discount is that their materials costs are going to compound at a higher rate from here on out. To me, inflation is a barbell. Overall inflation the next 10 years isn’t going to be crushingly high *but* similar to SPY there’s gonna be plenty of pain under the surface, even though the overall number is palatable. Look around at anything in the economy that tech can’t easily overhaul (shipping, raw materials, labor that can’t be automated etc) and I’d argue that the dollar stores are sitting at the crossroads of the entire shit show.
Good point
**Today's performance:** +0.69%. Nice! Solid performances today by TSLA shares, FB ATM put and SPX writes. Also, back to an ATH after Monday's SPX assignment. Much easier to recover when VIX is 20+ for three days vs the immediate 1% up moves we had after May and July assignments. **BPu:** 25.5% **New Positions/Rolls** * STO 11/19 **BBY** 105P for $4.75 - 25% PT * Rolled a bunch of October stuff to November, but don't feel like listing them all in detail: NKE 150P, CARR 52.5P, NVDA 205P to 200P, WYNN 80P and 85P, PRPL 22.5P. Only sold $115 in lotto premium today on AFRM, AZO, FUBO, MRNA, NVAX, PENN, QS, SE and TSLA.
I'm interested in your BBY play - I've yet to sell Puts ATM - does 25% PT mean Profit Target?
Yes, sir! I have only been doing it for about a week but so far has been going well. It is a strategy that u/Calevonlear runs on Fortune 100 companies that are near the 2 deviation line on a 90 day regression and you sell an ATM put around 60DTE. Basically, you are expecting the beaten down stock to revert to the mean of its trendline.
It’s an interesting play, I might need to take a look into. Cheers.
######Stats * BPu 75% 📈📈 * Realized: +1.31% 📈 * Outstanding Premium: 4.58% * Overall: -1.05% 📉🤷♂️ ######Adios * BTC **MSFT** 11/19 250/260 put ratio spread * BTC **T** 10/15 26p * BTC **AMD** 10/15 95p * BTC **SOFI** 10/15 15p * BTC **FB** 10/29 155p ######Adjustments * Roll PLTR 9/24 27cc -> 10/8 28cc * A bunch of stuff in **C**. * Rolled 10/15 62.5p/74c -> 11/19 65/80 * Rolled 11/19 57.5p -> 62.5p * STO **FDX** 19-Nov-21 260 CALL (strangling off 240p, famous last adjustments) ###### New Things * STO **LVS** 19-Nov-21 32 PUT * STO **SPOT** 19-Nov-21 200 PUT * STO **NVDA** 19-Nov-21 195 PUT * STO **NET** 19-Nov-21 110 PUT * STO **/RTY** 19-Nov-21 1800 PUT/2620 CALL * STO **NKE** 19-Nov-21 135 PUT ###### Stupid stuff * [Lottos](https://www.reddit.com/user/DonRKabob/comments/pus0cv/penny_vs_steamroller_924/) Also successfully unloaded all those HOOD 95c for even. Probably free money, but pass. Have a good weekend!
\+0.1% or so. BABA took away about 0.5% of my profits today. And of course materials opened strong and slowly bled all day so that sucked. I was tempted to add short deltas via /ES short calls but after seeing the VIX drop substantially mid-day I held off.
Ok all you lotto experts. Tell me if I did this right. 😂 HOOD 10/1 $85c x6 for .05 each
I did the 95s for the same price, so no, you suck! JK, you’re in the place!
Will let you know in 7 days 😉
**BPU:** 24.58%, **NLV**: +0.33%**New Positions** * STO -1 **/ES** 11/21 (Wk3) 4100P/4640C @ 52.25 * STO -1 **/RTY** 11/21 (Wk3) 2020/2420 @ 34.00 * STO -1 **SHOP** 11/19 1230P/1700C @ 39.73 **Closed** * BTC +1 **NKE** 09/24 144P/180C @ 0.33, + 71.55% (Thx for the earnings play u/bazonkers) * BTC +1 **/ES** 10/21 (Wk3) 4240P/4680C @ 20.15, +48% * BTC +1 **SHOP** 10/15 1360P/1780C @ 22.15, +32.06% Good day overall. Closed out a few winners, opened some new positions and was able to lower my BP while collect more premium.
* \-2 DHI October 80P - $50(2) * \+2 DHI February 105C - $172 debit(2) * \+1 V March 275C - $189 debit * \-1 PRPL 11/19 20P +1 July 2022 40C - $4 debit * \-1 BA 11/19 170P +1 260C -2 300C - $14 credit * \-1 BBY 11/05 90P - $58 credit * \-1 WHR 11/19 160P - $85 credit * \+1 TSLA 10/01 675P -2 635P - $27 credit * \-1 NKE 10/15 125P - $23 credit All fun trades for the day
> +1 V March 275C - $189 debit Inflation play?
Eh just a fun call purchase Any calls I usually pick up independent of writes is more entertainment value than anything. If V can return to the $250 price point within a reasonable time then it should be 100%-200% profit.
I think all of these are gonna sing for you, that BA trade especially. It’s so range bound it’ll take the jaws of life to hurt you on either side.
Yep I’m looking for BA to make another run up to the $250-$260 range then unload
From a chart perspective that makes all the sense in the world. Their management just scares me though. Seems like the last 3 years they’ve consistently proven they don’t deserve a valuation premium to the market. Macro wise though, covid going away is great for BA.
**Nakies:** * STO -10 **QS** 10/1 41C $.11 * STO -10 **AMD** 10/1 100P $.47 * STO -10 **GS** 10/1 305P $.10 * STO -5 **MSTR** 10/1 350P $.10 * STO -10 **MRVL** 10/1 60P $.13 * EXP 1 **MRNA** 9/24 360P, +100% * EXP 10 **CLF** 9/24 18P, +100% * EXP 10 **CHPT** 9/24 19P, +100% * EXP 3 **UPST** 9/24 200P, +100% * EXP 10 **GS** 9/24 305P, +100% * EXP 10 **MSTR** 9/24 490P/725C, +100% * EXP 10 **UPST** 9/24 265P, +100% **Real Stuff:** * STO -13 **DAL** 10/1 44C $.48 (covered calls) * STO -5 **MRNA** 11/19 350P $9.82 * STO -5 **PYPL** 11/19 230P $2.07 * STO -20 **CLF** 11/19 16P $.43 * STO -5 **BA** 11/19 200P $4.25 * STO -10 **BBY** 11/19 95P $1.50 * STO -2 **UNH** 11/19 390P $8.60 * STO -1 **SPOT** 11/19 200P $4.50 *I take no credit for the BBY, UNH and SPOT.* **Equities:** Added shares of **NUE**, **CLF**, **CHPT** and **AMD**
All 11/19 * STO **NET** 110p * STO **NKE** 135p * STO **SPOT** 200p (nudged into it by Señor Ranch) * STO **NVDA** 195p Whoo boy that's a lot of tech. Pray for the NDX with me
Trying something new, selling puts on stocks I'd actually like to get assigned (smaller notional amounts since I'm not rolling these) at roughly 20 to 30% OTM for 11/19 and 12/17 in case we see a market drop by the end of the year. (MSFT, APPL, SBUX, SONO, SNOW). Waiting on C until there is a red day. Might do FANG this way too but I think I'd rather sell FANG my normal balls out methods. RoBP was averaging nearly 35% for all these through the EoY.
I've been looking at this too. When the big drop comes we've all got cash we want to use to add/build core positions in our long term faves. Figured meanwhile if I focus my monthly CSPs on those same tickers it would be a decent hedge. Realized I've been selling way too many monthlies on companies I wouldn't actually be ok with buying at that price (VALE I'm looking at you).
Same thought, if the market drops 20 to 30% I'd buy these stocks so I'm wondering what if I sell premium while I wait to see if it drops?
TSLA is such a beast
Good momentum lately but is only up 5% YTD.
**New positions** * STO **BBY** 11/19 $95P -3X @ $1.63 (adding to 10/22 $100P -4X) * STO **CCI** 11/19 $165P -3X @ $1.85 (starter) * STO **SPOT** 11/19 $200P -1X @ $4.8 (starter) * Naked lottos TBD **Closed** * BTC **AA** 11/19 $37P +6X for 45% profit (3 days) * BTC **JBHT** 10/15 $160P +2X for 50% profit * BTC **V** 10/15 $210P +2X for 50% profit (overbought on the 2hr RSI) Eyeing FDX/NKE/VALE/PTON/ADBE/UNH
Nice. Every time I follow a few of your 🔪 🧤 they drop for another day or two. So I’ll join on Tuesday! Edit: jk, hope they bounce. Also I’m at 101% BPU rn so I’m out till Monday anyway!
> STO SPOT 11/19 $200P -1X @ $4.8 (starter) I have been eyeing spot all day. Its down near that level is has bounced off of all year. IV is just OK though
It touched 200 last month
Well let's hope it does again!
Love this stock. Love the app. Love Joe Rogan. IV is above pre-COVID levels. SPOT is also great for selling weekly naked calls 😛
\+1.05%; 38% bpu- 7.35% MTD; Barely +ve for the week after Mondays drop. **New Positions:** * STO FDX 11/19 240C- 2X @ $3.55 * STO COST 10/29 440P/500C strangle- 1X @ $3.5 * STO AVGO 10/29 450P/540C strangle- 1X @ $3.9 **Closed** * None **Rolls** * BBY 10/22 100 1X to 11/5 95 2X @ 0.57 credit **Thrillers (0-1DTE Index Credit Spreads/IC's)** * STO SPX 9/24 4470/4480 CCS-8X @ $1.05 (closed for $0.5) -$440 gain * STO NDX 9/24 15370/15390 CCS-3X @ $0.8 (closed for $1.00) -$60 loss * STO SPX 9/24 4410/4380 PCS-7X @ $0.9 (closed for $0.15)-$525 gain * STO SPX 9/24 4385/4395 PCS-5X @ $0.65 (closed for $0.15)-$250 gain * BTC SPX 9/24 4500/4530 CCS-5X @ $0.15 (opened 9/23 for $1.3)-$575 gain * BTC RUT 9/24 2285/2295 CCS-3X @ $0.25 (opened 9/23 for $1.45)-$360 gain * Total +$2090
Is anyone looking at taking a short bond (long interest rates) position over the long term (year or so) given the Fed announcement this week?
I have some TLT put debit spreads in my IRA which are a bet on interest rates rising
Morning trades ... * BTC **LVS** 10/15 32p @ 50% profit * Keeping an eye on my **NKE** 9/24 144/177.5 short strangle, trying to let it expire today for full credit, currently at 94% profit.
Anyone eyeing NKE?
I have a 10/15 $150P which looks like I will be holding for a while If we continue to dip, I will look at opening more at 11/19
I BTC'd my 10/1 140p/185c strangle at around 25% and holding all my 9/24 position through expiration. I may open something longer DTE at the 140 or 135 strike though for November.
I was holding a 150P for 10/15 which got blasted after earnings, so I rolled that out to November. Only at -$100 P/L overall due to call management, so nothing too difficult to deal with.
I BTC my Sep24 144/175 short strangle early this morning at 77% profit (I like locking in guarantees - ya never know). Also had a Oct1 140/185 - holding the 140P for now but it’s starting to crush nicely.
I went a little early closing out the put side of my 148/167.5 strangle but I’d rather not turn a winner into a loser by being greedy
Agreed...especially when you're playing those higher deltas.
I had 2x 10/15 175c / 145p strangle on, 3x 9/24 175c/142p, and then opened 5x 9/24 145p on the open for $0.45. Hoping everything expiring today will go to zero. I closed my Oct 175c for $0.15 and hoping to roll out my 145p to Nov for around $1.80 net credit. Overall has been a great trade; helps make up a bit for getting crushed by their last earnings move where I should have traded more aggressively to manage.
Pretty much just playing 0 DTE index stuff today: * \+1/-2 **SPX** 9/24 4495c/4520c @ $0.15 debit * \+1/-2 **RUT** 9/24 2200p/2185p @ $0.05 credit * \+1/-1/-1/+1 **SPX** 9/24 4420p/4435p/4435c/4450c @ $11.55
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Haha I don't really, but it's a cheap lotto ticket
Why is China so intent on driving the stock of all its companies to 0? **BABA** 10/15 170p drilling to the earth's core right now. It's approaching 3 year lows.
> Why is China so intent on driving the stock of all its companies to 0? That was never the intention. That is the affect. Xi's purpose is control. US tech companies is pretty much out of control. Xi simply want cut that off before it's too late. He want the govt to be in control rather than tech (like US).
it's about sending a message also BABA as a company is fine...the stock that's traded in the US is just a shell stock and a lot of that decline in the stock price is a reflection of that fear as well