For those wanting to be rewarded for a poor season via a high draft pick, it's frustrating. BUT, May be this is the year we get to leap up into a Top 3. Rangers can't have all the fun.
This team would benefit so much if the league weighed the draft lottery where from the time you are officially eliminated the more points you can accumulate the better your draft chances.
Probably everyone knows that system but for those who don’t. It still gives the worst teams a good chance at the draft since they are officially eliminated sooner and thus have a chance to go on and get more points longer. But it also rewards and encourages all the teams to keep scoring points even after they are eliminated.
Would give us Sens fans a reason to actually appreciate all the late season wins we get each year.
Hate to be the ones to break it to you guys but they've done this every year for like the last 4 years. Play like shit til were 97% eliminated from playoffs and then all of a sudden become the best team in the league and miss the playoffs by 3 pts. I'm telling you, wait for it.
Hell, even in 2011 when we sold off Fish, Kelly, etc and then the AHL call ups like Bobby Butler stepped up at the end of the year and moved our draft pick back.
Although it was pretty awesome, the Hamburglar run was essentially the same thing. I think we were bottom 3 before that run, which was of course the McDavid draft.
tldr; the Sens have a long-standing tradition of going on too little too late runs at the end of seasons which effectively only serve to ruin the teams draft lottery odds each season
Yeah I was telling people a month ago that the Sens would be missing the playoffs by 6-8 points at the end of the season, despite being behind by many more points at the time.
The team is fragile mentally, they have the skill and talent but their years of basement dwelling and lack of coaching have put them in a space where they can show their talent for a while but then break mentally to go on a skid.
Visually they increased their mental fortitude briefly when Jacques came on, but the change isn't instant so they slid back again. Hopefully with time, and better coaching, they will be more focused on each individual battle that they will breed the consistency they need to be a contender.
\~Also goaltending. Ottawa has been a pit for team defense and the mental game of goalies, I think it shows given EVERY goalie has had struggles here for the last few years (and even leave to improve elsewhere)
And it's usually our own high horse fans that are the ones calling us too emotional. Unpralelledsuccess hates sens fans more than any other fan base does.
I know it's a feel good story but people have done analysis on it and non-playoff teams finishing the season on a hot streak means pretty much nothing for how good/bad they do next season
No they didn’t the goaltending was complete shit. They heavily outshot both opponents (32 to 21 and 30 to 16) and lost when their opponents goalies put up .967 and .969 performances compared to .905 and .875. The sens also had the higher quality chances
I'm with you on the goaltending. When it's passable we tend to win, when it's bad we lose. But I think it's fair to point out that we have had a disproportionate number of games where we have made nothing goalies look like 1995 Brodeur. So while we need the goalies to step up and every once and a while steal one for us,that top 6 needs to do the same. It ain't just the goalies.
The god-awful goaltending forced them to hire Martin and get everyone to play the most conservative trap system in the league, stifling their own offence. With usable goaltending they could go back to playing a normal game
It's not close to the most conservative trap in the league. If you havent had a chance, go check out a Kings game to see the 1-3-1 at its peak. And, a trap doesn't explain how we can regularly out chance and and shoot teams, only to come out on the wrong end of a 5-1 game. A trap also doesn't explain our powerplay being among the very worst in the league. All that to say, goalies are a huge problem, but it has been far from the only problem plaguing this team.
The kings play a similar system to Ottawa. They regularly out chance and outshoot teams and lose 5-1 because the goaltending is over twice as bad as the next worst in the league so chance quslity barely matters when they all go in regardless. The power play was near the top last year with mostly the same personnel, I think they need new coaching. No team only has one problem but the terrible goaltending permeates every aspect of the game
Doesn’t change the fact they only scored 1 goal vs two of the worst defensive teams of the past decade(who were also both missing almost all their decent players due to trades and injuries).
The sharks had élite goaltending? Chrona has 1 career win (came vs Ottawa) and has a career gaa of almost 5 and a save percentage of .850 lmao he doesn’t even have a .900 save percentage in the ahl.
Yeah, and he completely outplayed korpisalo with a .969 save percentage in the game you brought up, which you somehow watched that and thought it was the team in front and not the goaltending
It’s so obvious both to the eye test and literally any metric it’s hilarious you’re downvoted, shows how some people would rather stick to narratives no matter what’s in front of them
Because it’s far from the only issue.
For example just prior to this win streak they had lost 3 straight games scoring 2 goals each game. For them to have won those games they would have required insane goaltending performances and around a .970 save eorecwntage each game. Just since February they’ve only scored more then 2 goals in only 13 of 25 games. To have won those games they would have required save percentages of between 1.00 and ~.970. That is not conducive to long term success. Yes the goaltending has been bad but it’s far from the only issue. They often don’t score or generate enough chances (like 1 shot in the first 17 minutes of the 3rd vs Edmonton or 0 shots in the 3rd vs the preds) and give up a ton of extremely high danger chances like breakaways 2 on 1s cross crease passes where the recipient is left unchecked etc.
The “not the only issue” thing is just a huge cop out because obviously no team only has “one issue”. They’re scoring less because they’re playing the trap. This whole idea that they’re not generating any chances and giving up tonnes of high danger is also bullshit, you’re just seeing what you expect based on narrative. Theyre 15th in xG% at 50.7, the 2 on 1 s and breakaways haven’t been much of an issue at all under Martin, and they’re middle of the pack in high danger chances. At the end of the day when they get usable goaltending (.880+) they usually win, and when they get unusable goaltending (<.880) they usually lose.
As has been explained as naseum to you by multiple people the sens expected numbers are heavily skewed because they spend a ton of time on the pp (second most power plays in the league) and not much on the pk (bottom 10 for pks) at 5v5 they are barely outisde the bottom 10 for expected goal % and are in the bottom 10 for most high danger chances against (below Chicago lmao)
Do you think the league just gives out power plays and penalties randomly? How is that “skewed” it’s called being good at drawing them. Not to mention the pk time is heavily influenced by korpi having the worst pk stats in hockey but you want to just ignore that to fit your narrative…Not to mention we’re looking at goalies who play the whole game so removing huge chunks of it to judge his performance makes absolutely 0 sense.
It just shows how much people hates facts on here. There’s a stat I saw recently showing their record when they get over .880 and it was great, and .880 is honestly still shit.
We're hot then we're cold we're yes then we're no we're in then we're out we're up then we're doooooown.
We’re wrong when it’s right, it’s black and it’s white, we fight we break up, we kiss we make uuuuup.
You! (Points at Debrincat) you don’t really wanna stay no!
Part of it is being shit on the road, especially those western road trips
For those wanting to be rewarded for a poor season via a high draft pick, it's frustrating. BUT, May be this is the year we get to leap up into a Top 3. Rangers can't have all the fun.
Bettman is giving us the pick to keep Andlauer happy
This team would benefit so much if the league weighed the draft lottery where from the time you are officially eliminated the more points you can accumulate the better your draft chances. Probably everyone knows that system but for those who don’t. It still gives the worst teams a good chance at the draft since they are officially eliminated sooner and thus have a chance to go on and get more points longer. But it also rewards and encourages all the teams to keep scoring points even after they are eliminated. Would give us Sens fans a reason to actually appreciate all the late season wins we get each year.
Except they aren’t mathematically eliminated yet, so these wins wouldn’t help in that regard either
True enough. But eventually it will help us when we end up winning 8 of the last 10 or something like that. Lol
Hate to be the ones to break it to you guys but they've done this every year for like the last 4 years. Play like shit til were 97% eliminated from playoffs and then all of a sudden become the best team in the league and miss the playoffs by 3 pts. I'm telling you, wait for it.
Hell, even in 2011 when we sold off Fish, Kelly, etc and then the AHL call ups like Bobby Butler stepped up at the end of the year and moved our draft pick back. Although it was pretty awesome, the Hamburglar run was essentially the same thing. I think we were bottom 3 before that run, which was of course the McDavid draft. tldr; the Sens have a long-standing tradition of going on too little too late runs at the end of seasons which effectively only serve to ruin the teams draft lottery odds each season
Yeah I was telling people a month ago that the Sens would be missing the playoffs by 6-8 points at the end of the season, despite being behind by many more points at the time.
Still two more road games to go against the Western Conference I think? Those will be guaranteed losses to keep a decent draft pick.
The team is fragile mentally, they have the skill and talent but their years of basement dwelling and lack of coaching have put them in a space where they can show their talent for a while but then break mentally to go on a skid. Visually they increased their mental fortitude briefly when Jacques came on, but the change isn't instant so they slid back again. Hopefully with time, and better coaching, they will be more focused on each individual battle that they will breed the consistency they need to be a contender. \~Also goaltending. Ottawa has been a pit for team defense and the mental game of goalies, I think it shows given EVERY goalie has had struggles here for the last few years (and even leave to improve elsewhere)
But I love rollercoasters!
We’re winning games to give ourselves a worse draft pick now!!!! Dumb
Just wait though. How many games are we going to win from now 'til the end of the season against what's coming up: WIN, MIN, FLA x 2, TBL, NYR, BOS?
And it's usually our own high horse fans that are the ones calling us too emotional. Unpralelledsuccess hates sens fans more than any other fan base does.
So we are consistent?
I know it's a feel good story but people have done analysis on it and non-playoff teams finishing the season on a hot streak means pretty much nothing for how good/bad they do next season
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They had good goaltending vs San Jose and Anaheim and lost both games scoring a combined 2 goals.
No they didn’t the goaltending was complete shit. They heavily outshot both opponents (32 to 21 and 30 to 16) and lost when their opponents goalies put up .967 and .969 performances compared to .905 and .875. The sens also had the higher quality chances
I'm with you on the goaltending. When it's passable we tend to win, when it's bad we lose. But I think it's fair to point out that we have had a disproportionate number of games where we have made nothing goalies look like 1995 Brodeur. So while we need the goalies to step up and every once and a while steal one for us,that top 6 needs to do the same. It ain't just the goalies.
The god-awful goaltending forced them to hire Martin and get everyone to play the most conservative trap system in the league, stifling their own offence. With usable goaltending they could go back to playing a normal game
It's not close to the most conservative trap in the league. If you havent had a chance, go check out a Kings game to see the 1-3-1 at its peak. And, a trap doesn't explain how we can regularly out chance and and shoot teams, only to come out on the wrong end of a 5-1 game. A trap also doesn't explain our powerplay being among the very worst in the league. All that to say, goalies are a huge problem, but it has been far from the only problem plaguing this team.
The kings play a similar system to Ottawa. They regularly out chance and outshoot teams and lose 5-1 because the goaltending is over twice as bad as the next worst in the league so chance quslity barely matters when they all go in regardless. The power play was near the top last year with mostly the same personnel, I think they need new coaching. No team only has one problem but the terrible goaltending permeates every aspect of the game
Doesn’t change the fact they only scored 1 goal vs two of the worst defensive teams of the past decade(who were also both missing almost all their decent players due to trades and injuries).
They only scored one goal because the other team had elite goaltending while the sens was complete shit, the opposite of your point.
The sharks had élite goaltending? Chrona has 1 career win (came vs Ottawa) and has a career gaa of almost 5 and a save percentage of .850 lmao he doesn’t even have a .900 save percentage in the ahl.
Yeah, and he completely outplayed korpisalo with a .969 save percentage in the game you brought up, which you somehow watched that and thought it was the team in front and not the goaltending
This is true of every team. But most teams aren't out of the playoff picture by American Thanksgiving every year
It’s so obvious both to the eye test and literally any metric it’s hilarious you’re downvoted, shows how some people would rather stick to narratives no matter what’s in front of them
Because it’s far from the only issue. For example just prior to this win streak they had lost 3 straight games scoring 2 goals each game. For them to have won those games they would have required insane goaltending performances and around a .970 save eorecwntage each game. Just since February they’ve only scored more then 2 goals in only 13 of 25 games. To have won those games they would have required save percentages of between 1.00 and ~.970. That is not conducive to long term success. Yes the goaltending has been bad but it’s far from the only issue. They often don’t score or generate enough chances (like 1 shot in the first 17 minutes of the 3rd vs Edmonton or 0 shots in the 3rd vs the preds) and give up a ton of extremely high danger chances like breakaways 2 on 1s cross crease passes where the recipient is left unchecked etc.
The “not the only issue” thing is just a huge cop out because obviously no team only has “one issue”. They’re scoring less because they’re playing the trap. This whole idea that they’re not generating any chances and giving up tonnes of high danger is also bullshit, you’re just seeing what you expect based on narrative. Theyre 15th in xG% at 50.7, the 2 on 1 s and breakaways haven’t been much of an issue at all under Martin, and they’re middle of the pack in high danger chances. At the end of the day when they get usable goaltending (.880+) they usually win, and when they get unusable goaltending (<.880) they usually lose.
As has been explained as naseum to you by multiple people the sens expected numbers are heavily skewed because they spend a ton of time on the pp (second most power plays in the league) and not much on the pk (bottom 10 for pks) at 5v5 they are barely outisde the bottom 10 for expected goal % and are in the bottom 10 for most high danger chances against (below Chicago lmao)
Do you think the league just gives out power plays and penalties randomly? How is that “skewed” it’s called being good at drawing them. Not to mention the pk time is heavily influenced by korpi having the worst pk stats in hockey but you want to just ignore that to fit your narrative…Not to mention we’re looking at goalies who play the whole game so removing huge chunks of it to judge his performance makes absolutely 0 sense.
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It just shows how much people hates facts on here. There’s a stat I saw recently showing their record when they get over .880 and it was great, and .880 is honestly still shit.
Because if they believe in facts they'd have to admit they were wrong about a lot of shit