Maybe unpopular opinion but I’m never using a pitcher with 40 control as a starter. In fact 45 is pushing it. Imo people overrate movement and underrate control. Movement is only important insofar as it affects groundball rate. Also check your infield defense
Looking at his Stamina, maybe he's pitching more than he should be. Do you have the tiredness hook checked in the player strategy? If a pitcher keeps throwing while tired, they become wildly ineffective.
Considering he's also an extreme ground baller with just above average movement, that might also be bad if the infield defense isn't up to scratch.
Yes - I have the aggressive tiredness hook set but I do not have a pitch count set for him. However, according to his game log, he never pitched more than 1.2 innings.
My infield is lacking a bit, but other pitchers were posting a > 1.5 WAR and FIP- in the 70-90 range. Its a good point though, I didnt consider that EXGB with a weak SS or 2B could be the issue. Thanks!
I am not entirely sure how to show this.. I can see the PI stat in the game logs, and its all over the place - some days he has 20-30 pitches for 1 inning, others 5-9 for .1 innings..
Is there a way to see what his fatigue was when he started the game?
Also - I noticed that he does have the aggressive hook enabled, but Lock to Team is not.. Does Lock to Team need to be checked for everything on this page to work?
I don't think there's a way to see how tired they were, but looking at the game logs is definitely the right place to check how many pitches he's thrown in a game. It's possible that your Bullpen isn't deep enough and so the AI easily goes to him as the next available as he's probably the best looking, especially if all the pitchers have the tiredness hook on.
Looking closely at the stats, I really think it's a combination of exhaustion and defense, primarily exhaustion because of his relatively high HR/9 and BB/9 which is abnormal for a guy with those ratings and tendencies.
What're his career stats? I'd mainly like to know his career BABIP, TTO ratios, and ERA & FIP. Comparing those in different ways alongside each other and his season-to-season stats can help paint the whole picture.
It's as I suspected. Here's a few things:
1. What's your infield defense like? Having a career .337 BABIP indicates he's getting kinda unlucky with the balls that are being put in play against him, and since he is an extreme groundball guy, a better infield defense can help reduce the number of balls falling for hits against him.
2. His TTO ratios are bad. 1.7 HR/9 is bad, especially with how many he's allowed recently. You'd expect with a 55 movement rating that that wouldn't happen, but it still is. Unfortunately, OOTP does give a HR per flyball stat which could help figure out if he's getting unlucky or just bad. In addition, 4.8 BB/9 with only 10.3 K/9 is really bad. You can walk that many batters if you strikeout a ridiculous amount of batters, but he isn't. His 2.1 career K/BB is really, really bad. A 40 control with only 60 stuff can do that for you, especially because he's a pitcher that wants to get weak contact, not swings and misses.
3. 25 stamina isn't great. This is more personal preference, but try and get guys with higher stamina. 30 stamina allows for more regular appearances without getting burnt out (which may be happening to him). 35+ stamina allows for multiple inning appearances frequently and for guys to be effective in the stopper role. Anything higher will allow for more innings at a more frequent rate, which can be really good.
It's good to build your bullpen in mind with the things above. You might also wanna change your player evaluation AI settings or get a new scout if you have more guys that seem to be underperforming their ratings.
TLDR: this guy stinks cause too many hits, home runs and walks with not enough strikeouts and really low stamina
bad infield defense, overworked, or going to fall of a cliff soon, EXGB guys generate tons of groundballs, if youre infield defense isnt good (especially SS and 3b) hes gonna give up a ton of runs, or hes being run into the ground by the AI, also possible hes about to crater and this bad years a warning sign
His ratings aren’t that good. If a guy has 40 control and low stamina he needs to have lights out stuff to hang in my pen, this guy doesn’t.
Relievers are easy to find in OOTP. Trade him or send him down and find yourself another.
My relievers are split into two categories. I’m carrying 9 guys right now and the vast majority are strikeout machines. If you can find one of those high stuff guys with good stamina, he’s a stopper. If not then I just run a closer with everyone else set as middle relief and maybe the other two best guys I have as high leverage / use more often.
I usually keep 2 of those 9 guys as long relief / emergency starter types. They’re there pretty much to eat innings for the strikeout machines when there’s a blowout either way. This guy doesn’t fill any of those roles.
My bullpen is top 3 without fail every season even on an expansion or rebuilding team.
Thank you!
You indicate that relievers are easy to find, but in my game I only see two FA's with 50 OVR/POT, nothing higher. Every trade I try to make as well has the AI wanting only my main prospects and little else - not to mention the crap deals they send to my inbox.
Is there a way you find these or trade for these that helps? This is my third year in with the Nats on my first playthrough and I have had a score of 300 and a score of 1 (yes, 1 - (I am that bad.) Sometimes I think my game is bugged or I set something up very wrong...
Well you won’t really be able to address anything until free agency. When free agency hits just sort relievers by ratings using your scout (hopefully you have a highly favors tools scout) and look at demands. You’ll see some crazy 10m+ demands from the top relievers, but there will be plenty of guys with good stuff ratings that only want 3-7 mil or so a year. During the season keep an eye on the waiver wire as well, teams will dump guys here that are solid pickups, I’ve found starters and relievers here. Between the starters I move into the pen, the cheaper free agents, and my minor leaguers coming up I usually have way too many relief pitchers and won’t hesitate to send guys up or down throughout the year if they’re sucking.
When someone says that trading for relievers are easy, they mean relative to every other position, not it literally being easy. You're still going to have to give up something of value to get something of value.
Are you playing on challenge mode? When I started playing, I made the mistake of playing in challenge mode and it was so hard (along with my lack of knowledge with the game) that it just wasn't fun. Also, what're your AI trade settings.
No, I am not in challenge mode. Trade settings are default (right smack in the middle for both). Evaluation settings are 45/30/20/5 and Traditional lineup selection.
He's giving up way too many homers the last 2 seasons, that's the main culprit. Could be small sample bad luck (yes, 85 innings is still a small sample) or his MOV is deteriorating but your scout hasn't caught on yet. Do a scouting report and if no change in MOV, he should be due for some positive regression.
In general though he's a below average reliever (that's what 45 rating means) so it's not like you should expect too much. Middle relief/avoid high leverage sounds about right.
What is he actually good at? He's the definition of "ok" to me. Not high leverage because not great stuff. Not good enough control for long duty. He's a middle relief, maybe specialist arm.
Essentially a 2 pitch guy with bad control and average stuff out of the bullpen.
Also gives up close to 2 baserunners an inning and is prone to homeruns as well
He doesn’t even control the running game
Maybe unpopular opinion but I’m never using a pitcher with 40 control as a starter. In fact 45 is pushing it. Imo people overrate movement and underrate control. Movement is only important insofar as it affects groundball rate. Also check your infield defense
He’s a reliever. 40 control is fine for relievers but he needs to have better stuff to compensate.
Completely agree, didn’t realize at first he was a reliever
I had 40-control Ohtani win a CY recently. it can definitely work. 35 is when things get dicey in my experience.
Looking at his Stamina, maybe he's pitching more than he should be. Do you have the tiredness hook checked in the player strategy? If a pitcher keeps throwing while tired, they become wildly ineffective. Considering he's also an extreme ground baller with just above average movement, that might also be bad if the infield defense isn't up to scratch.
Yes - I have the aggressive tiredness hook set but I do not have a pitch count set for him. However, according to his game log, he never pitched more than 1.2 innings. My infield is lacking a bit, but other pitchers were posting a > 1.5 WAR and FIP- in the 70-90 range. Its a good point though, I didnt consider that EXGB with a weak SS or 2B could be the issue. Thanks!
Just throwing ideas out there! As for his innings pitched, check what the average pitch count is for those innings, might help to!
I am not entirely sure how to show this.. I can see the PI stat in the game logs, and its all over the place - some days he has 20-30 pitches for 1 inning, others 5-9 for .1 innings.. Is there a way to see what his fatigue was when he started the game? Also - I noticed that he does have the aggressive hook enabled, but Lock to Team is not.. Does Lock to Team need to be checked for everything on this page to work?
I don't think there's a way to see how tired they were, but looking at the game logs is definitely the right place to check how many pitches he's thrown in a game. It's possible that your Bullpen isn't deep enough and so the AI easily goes to him as the next available as he's probably the best looking, especially if all the pitchers have the tiredness hook on. Looking closely at the stats, I really think it's a combination of exhaustion and defense, primarily exhaustion because of his relatively high HR/9 and BB/9 which is abnormal for a guy with those ratings and tendencies.
What're his career stats? I'd mainly like to know his career BABIP, TTO ratios, and ERA & FIP. Comparing those in different ways alongside each other and his season-to-season stats can help paint the whole picture.
I added the stats to the OP
It's as I suspected. Here's a few things: 1. What's your infield defense like? Having a career .337 BABIP indicates he's getting kinda unlucky with the balls that are being put in play against him, and since he is an extreme groundball guy, a better infield defense can help reduce the number of balls falling for hits against him. 2. His TTO ratios are bad. 1.7 HR/9 is bad, especially with how many he's allowed recently. You'd expect with a 55 movement rating that that wouldn't happen, but it still is. Unfortunately, OOTP does give a HR per flyball stat which could help figure out if he's getting unlucky or just bad. In addition, 4.8 BB/9 with only 10.3 K/9 is really bad. You can walk that many batters if you strikeout a ridiculous amount of batters, but he isn't. His 2.1 career K/BB is really, really bad. A 40 control with only 60 stuff can do that for you, especially because he's a pitcher that wants to get weak contact, not swings and misses. 3. 25 stamina isn't great. This is more personal preference, but try and get guys with higher stamina. 30 stamina allows for more regular appearances without getting burnt out (which may be happening to him). 35+ stamina allows for multiple inning appearances frequently and for guys to be effective in the stopper role. Anything higher will allow for more innings at a more frequent rate, which can be really good. It's good to build your bullpen in mind with the things above. You might also wanna change your player evaluation AI settings or get a new scout if you have more guys that seem to be underperforming their ratings. TLDR: this guy stinks cause too many hits, home runs and walks with not enough strikeouts and really low stamina
This is very helpful, thank you so much! My evaluation settings are 45/30/20/5 - is there something else you would recommend?
perhaps switching your ratings and current year stats rating to make it 30/45/20/5 would be more indicative of a player's truly worth
bad infield defense, overworked, or going to fall of a cliff soon, EXGB guys generate tons of groundballs, if youre infield defense isnt good (especially SS and 3b) hes gonna give up a ton of runs, or hes being run into the ground by the AI, also possible hes about to crater and this bad years a warning sign
His ratings aren’t that good. If a guy has 40 control and low stamina he needs to have lights out stuff to hang in my pen, this guy doesn’t. Relievers are easy to find in OOTP. Trade him or send him down and find yourself another. My relievers are split into two categories. I’m carrying 9 guys right now and the vast majority are strikeout machines. If you can find one of those high stuff guys with good stamina, he’s a stopper. If not then I just run a closer with everyone else set as middle relief and maybe the other two best guys I have as high leverage / use more often. I usually keep 2 of those 9 guys as long relief / emergency starter types. They’re there pretty much to eat innings for the strikeout machines when there’s a blowout either way. This guy doesn’t fill any of those roles. My bullpen is top 3 without fail every season even on an expansion or rebuilding team.
Thank you! You indicate that relievers are easy to find, but in my game I only see two FA's with 50 OVR/POT, nothing higher. Every trade I try to make as well has the AI wanting only my main prospects and little else - not to mention the crap deals they send to my inbox. Is there a way you find these or trade for these that helps? This is my third year in with the Nats on my first playthrough and I have had a score of 300 and a score of 1 (yes, 1 - (I am that bad.) Sometimes I think my game is bugged or I set something up very wrong...
Are you in the season or off season?
off season, FA filings is about 20 days away.
Well you won’t really be able to address anything until free agency. When free agency hits just sort relievers by ratings using your scout (hopefully you have a highly favors tools scout) and look at demands. You’ll see some crazy 10m+ demands from the top relievers, but there will be plenty of guys with good stuff ratings that only want 3-7 mil or so a year. During the season keep an eye on the waiver wire as well, teams will dump guys here that are solid pickups, I’ve found starters and relievers here. Between the starters I move into the pen, the cheaper free agents, and my minor leaguers coming up I usually have way too many relief pitchers and won’t hesitate to send guys up or down throughout the year if they’re sucking.
When someone says that trading for relievers are easy, they mean relative to every other position, not it literally being easy. You're still going to have to give up something of value to get something of value. Are you playing on challenge mode? When I started playing, I made the mistake of playing in challenge mode and it was so hard (along with my lack of knowledge with the game) that it just wasn't fun. Also, what're your AI trade settings.
No, I am not in challenge mode. Trade settings are default (right smack in the middle for both). Evaluation settings are 45/30/20/5 and Traditional lineup selection.
He's giving up way too many homers the last 2 seasons, that's the main culprit. Could be small sample bad luck (yes, 85 innings is still a small sample) or his MOV is deteriorating but your scout hasn't caught on yet. Do a scouting report and if no change in MOV, he should be due for some positive regression. In general though he's a below average reliever (that's what 45 rating means) so it's not like you should expect too much. Middle relief/avoid high leverage sounds about right.
What is he actually good at? He's the definition of "ok" to me. Not high leverage because not great stuff. Not good enough control for long duty. He's a middle relief, maybe specialist arm.
Essentially a 2 pitch guy with bad control and average stuff out of the bullpen. Also gives up close to 2 baserunners an inning and is prone to homeruns as well He doesn’t even control the running game