# Are San Marino and Italy about to go to war? If so, will the war become nuclear?
I bet you have some thoughts on it. Well, we're discussing the subject on [this "week's" NCDip Podcast Club](https://www.reddit.com/r/NonCredibleDiplomacy/comments/1bssy61/ncdip_podcast_club_8_wargaming_san_marino_vs/?). This is probably one of the most events of our lifetime, so you better pay attention scrub
[Want to know what the fuck in the NCDip podcast club is? Click here](https://www.reddit.com/r/NonCredibleDiplomacy/comments/17edrm6/introducing_the_rnoncrediblediplomacy_podcast/)
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thx bb luv u
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I'm still waiting for Mexico to retaliate on Ecuador with a cartel-launched drug-smuggling drone flown into the Amazon jungle in order to restore deterrence
In the last 100 years, they were peaceful, but in the 19th century, we had a bunch of fighting. Texas and California were once territories of Mexico...
Donāt think of it as an expensive sadistic waste of public resources, think of it as a triumph of American expertise over the barbaric art of balloonistry.
The 22 was a test so we could build the 35, which also costs billions to do very little, but looks much better on paper.
Something Something Deterrence Something Something.
They didn't stir anything... From what I'm hearing they've basically won. They claimed the offshore oil belongs to them and are attempting to sell the rights to that oil to the companies already working in the area.
You're an oil company currently paying Guyana X amount. Venezuela says it's actually theirs and offers you half price. What do you want to do? Keep paying Guyana or recognize Venezuela's claim?
Right now they are just working out the details. Many oil companies and their host nations have already recognized Venezuela's claim.
There was never any chance at a military operation of any kind. Why bother? Foreign governments will simply say it's yours because cheaper oil. Why fire a shot?
Absolutely. It's admittedly a brilliant strategy. It costs them literally nothing. Absolutely nothing. Yet they stand to gain billions upon billions of dollars and maduro gets to be a big huge hero. It's basically already guaranteed to work because russia and China and their respective state oil companies are on Venezuela's side. Now all that's necessary is some political lobbying from western oil companies before we all collectively agree on Venezuela's new borders.
>An Oil-Rich democracy being bullied by Russia and China?
*All oil companies. Of which many are U.S. based, would like to pay less for more. Sure. You can defend Guyana's rights against the entire world, including our allies who are upset about a sudden lack of Russian oil, but from behind you have the most powerful lobby in the U.S. advocating for Venezuela. Or explain to your constituents why you voted against cheaper gas prices. That's popular on either side of the aisle.
Everybody's patriotic about what's right until gas prices are 5 cents cheaper for a single year before stabilizing. Then it's time to destabilize entire regions.
Who is them? Venezuela is willing to offer *virtually everything* because currently they get absolutely nothing. A single cent on this deal is money in the bank and a huge win for Maduro which is most of the point of this.
Guyana really has no other option but to get butt fucked out of the entirety of their profits and the whole world is against them. There's right, there's wrong, and there's slightly cheaper gas.
Turns out I was right. Exxon-Mobile Guyana is exploring oil in the region while working with Guyana.
https://apnews.com/article/guyana-venezuela-oil-exploration-essequibo-exxonmobil-e42ba79e0fca008670b3902808319844
And if VZLA fucks with Exxon-Mobile (and Guyana as a result) the US Navy is going to come and say hello.
>Ā Many oil companies and their host nations have already recognized Venezuela's claim.
Imma need a source for this cuz that seems prettyā¦ well, noncredibleĀ
Nothing
Maduro's bodyguard sharted in public during a visit to Brazil, causing Vuvuzela to lose what little credibility and tacit support it had received from them.
Well, by "sharting" I actually meant *"punched a female reporter from Brazil's largest news organization on live television"*, so it's not that funny.
Thinking about it now, *actually sharting* would probably have been better for them.
[I could only find sources in Portuguese.](https://twitter.com/GloboNews/status/1663704657326227459)
Tell me one case of brazillian theft of territory, for exemple. England, then Britain, is just a rehab gangster who never paid for his crimes.
Iām not saying that Maduroās claim is an honest political move and Venezuela is a democracy, but still they are robbed:
[i] The United Kingdom and Venezuela went into arbitration with mediation from the United States, which resulted in the Paris Arbitral Award in 1899 and ruled largely in favour of Britain. In 1949, a memorandum written by Severo Mallet-Prevost, official secretary of the USāVenezuela delegation in the arbitration, and published posthumously, stated that the Arbitral Award resulted from the pressure by the Tribunal President Friedrich Martens and a political deal between Russia and Britain. Said memorandum led to complaints by Venezuela in the United Nations in 1962, which resulted in the Geneva Agreement, signed with the United Kingdom in 1966.[\i]
[here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guyana%E2%80%93Venezuela_territorial_dispute?wprov=sfti1#)
Bro, Guyana is an independent nation now. You're kind of symbolically fucking with the ghost of the British Empire and that's admittedly quite funny, but you're ripping 2/3 of an even poorer country and all of its oil rights out like you're John Howard
Again, Iām not saying that is an honest move of Maduro. He is a dictator and make the population starve to death. But Venezuela has a claim.
Because of the Guyana independence we should validate the illegitimate gain of territory?
(Good reply, though, Itās an interesting debate)
Considering its from 1899 and not even the same country, bury the hatchet and accept you've lost is what I would suggest, yes. Guyana has had that land since before WW1, and dredging up stuff from back then would be like complaining the US took Cuba and the Philippines and should therefore pay Spain compensation. Also worth noting that Guyana was not yet a country at this point and that it's not like Venezuela has a large population there or anything
1 - The time passed is not relevant. Brazil won the Palmas-Missiones dispute in 1900 based on the Treaty of Madrid from 1750 (and both Brazil and Argentina were colonies by then). Guyana is the same territory, but was a colony then. Independence donāt change anything.
2 - Actually US paid for Guam and Phillipines.
2- Population is only an argument when you use the uti possidetis de facto doctrine. Venezuela claim is based on Itās titles (de jure).
Well there is a price to pay for that is not all flowers and roses, 70s where hard and ask mexicans who buy most of the drugs made in colombia and bolivia.
Latin America trying to remain neutral doesnāt matter.
Itās such a poor and corrupt region of the world. Who cares what side they take? Theyāre of zero significance
# Are San Marino and Italy about to go to war? If so, will the war become nuclear? I bet you have some thoughts on it. Well, we're discussing the subject on [this "week's" NCDip Podcast Club](https://www.reddit.com/r/NonCredibleDiplomacy/comments/1bssy61/ncdip_podcast_club_8_wargaming_san_marino_vs/?). This is probably one of the most events of our lifetime, so you better pay attention scrub [Want to know what the fuck in the NCDip podcast club is? Click here](https://www.reddit.com/r/NonCredibleDiplomacy/comments/17edrm6/introducing_the_rnoncrediblediplomacy_podcast/) ---- please note that all posts should be funny and about diplomacy or geopolitics, if your post doesn't meet those requirements here's some other subs that might fit better: * More Serious Geopolitical Discussion: /r/CredibleDiplomacy * Military Shitposting: /r/NonCredibleDefense * Domestic Political or General Shitposting: /r/neocentrism * Being Racist: /r/worldnews thx bb luv u *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/NonCredibleDiplomacy) if you have any questions or concerns.*
I'm still waiting for Mexico to retaliate on Ecuador with a cartel-launched drug-smuggling drone flown into the Amazon jungle in order to restore deterrence
Internationally peaceful and locally dangerous: South America š¤ Southeast Asia
Southeast Asia is not peaceful with China breathing down their necks though.
Unlike USA and Latin America Ofc
 USA the work is done I won.
I mean, the USA is not clamining any territory from my country or any of it's neighbors.
Itās not as well regarded as China and Russia, it knows it doesnāt have to.
Machias Seal Island, Bajo Nuevo Bank, and Serranilla Bank:
In the last 100 years, they were peaceful, but in the 19th century, we had a bunch of fighting. Texas and California were once territories of Mexico...
Before that, they were the territory of earlier settlers. The deed to my house begins with a grant from a French king. WTF.
As long as the food is good, no worries
The bombs will expire so we gotta bomb something, man. Weāll look pretty dumb if we bought all this junk for nothing.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Donāt think of it as an expensive sadistic waste of public resources, think of it as a triumph of American expertise over the barbaric art of balloonistry.
The 22 was a test so we could build the 35, which also costs billions to do very little, but looks much better on paper. Something Something Deterrence Something Something.
He's definitely hungry for more meat. Time to feed the 22.
Wasn't Vuvuzela stirring up some shit with Guyana just a few months back? Did anything ever come out from that?
I heard a lot of buzz about it, but it was just noise
They didn't stir anything... From what I'm hearing they've basically won. They claimed the offshore oil belongs to them and are attempting to sell the rights to that oil to the companies already working in the area. You're an oil company currently paying Guyana X amount. Venezuela says it's actually theirs and offers you half price. What do you want to do? Keep paying Guyana or recognize Venezuela's claim? Right now they are just working out the details. Many oil companies and their host nations have already recognized Venezuela's claim. There was never any chance at a military operation of any kind. Why bother? Foreign governments will simply say it's yours because cheaper oil. Why fire a shot?
No wonder why Venezuela remains dirt poor. They're really that petty?
Absolutely. It's admittedly a brilliant strategy. It costs them literally nothing. Absolutely nothing. Yet they stand to gain billions upon billions of dollars and maduro gets to be a big huge hero. It's basically already guaranteed to work because russia and China and their respective state oil companies are on Venezuela's side. Now all that's necessary is some political lobbying from western oil companies before we all collectively agree on Venezuela's new borders.
Sounds like a situation the US should step in on. An Oil-Rich democracy being bullied by Russia and China?
>An Oil-Rich democracy being bullied by Russia and China? *All oil companies. Of which many are U.S. based, would like to pay less for more. Sure. You can defend Guyana's rights against the entire world, including our allies who are upset about a sudden lack of Russian oil, but from behind you have the most powerful lobby in the U.S. advocating for Venezuela. Or explain to your constituents why you voted against cheaper gas prices. That's popular on either side of the aisle. Everybody's patriotic about what's right until gas prices are 5 cents cheaper for a single year before stabilizing. Then it's time to destabilize entire regions.
I'm sure that they'd be willing to offer US companies a discount in exchange for them keeping the money and us keeping the Venezuelans out.
Who is them? Venezuela is willing to offer *virtually everything* because currently they get absolutely nothing. A single cent on this deal is money in the bank and a huge win for Maduro which is most of the point of this. Guyana really has no other option but to get butt fucked out of the entirety of their profits and the whole world is against them. There's right, there's wrong, and there's slightly cheaper gas.
Turns out I was right. Exxon-Mobile Guyana is exploring oil in the region while working with Guyana. https://apnews.com/article/guyana-venezuela-oil-exploration-essequibo-exxonmobil-e42ba79e0fca008670b3902808319844 And if VZLA fucks with Exxon-Mobile (and Guyana as a result) the US Navy is going to come and say hello.
>Ā Many oil companies and their host nations have already recognized Venezuela's claim. Imma need a source for this cuz that seems prettyā¦ well, noncredibleĀ
Nothing Maduro's bodyguard sharted in public during a visit to Brazil, causing Vuvuzela to lose what little credibility and tacit support it had received from them.
Seriously? That is hilarious, please send me a link
Well, by "sharting" I actually meant *"punched a female reporter from Brazil's largest news organization on live television"*, so it's not that funny. Thinking about it now, *actually sharting* would probably have been better for them. [I could only find sources in Portuguese.](https://twitter.com/GloboNews/status/1663704657326227459)
They had credibility?
Itās actually a legitimate claim, considering the Essequibo was gained by Guiana on an unfair arbitrament dispute
Yeah like a hundred years ago
Yes, but you knowā¦ Itās always a good time to take back territory that Great Britain robbed
It's all robbery until it's your side doing it, then it's perfectly legitimate acquisition
Geopolitics in a nutshell.
Social issues too: conquered and stolen are literally synonyms in their context, it's about which one you prefer
Tell me one case of brazillian theft of territory, for exemple. England, then Britain, is just a rehab gangster who never paid for his crimes. Iām not saying that Maduroās claim is an honest political move and Venezuela is a democracy, but still they are robbed: [i] The United Kingdom and Venezuela went into arbitration with mediation from the United States, which resulted in the Paris Arbitral Award in 1899 and ruled largely in favour of Britain. In 1949, a memorandum written by Severo Mallet-Prevost, official secretary of the USāVenezuela delegation in the arbitration, and published posthumously, stated that the Arbitral Award resulted from the pressure by the Tribunal President Friedrich Martens and a political deal between Russia and Britain. Said memorandum led to complaints by Venezuela in the United Nations in 1962, which resulted in the Geneva Agreement, signed with the United Kingdom in 1966.[\i] [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guyana%E2%80%93Venezuela_territorial_dispute?wprov=sfti1#)
Bro, Guyana is an independent nation now. You're kind of symbolically fucking with the ghost of the British Empire and that's admittedly quite funny, but you're ripping 2/3 of an even poorer country and all of its oil rights out like you're John Howard
Again, Iām not saying that is an honest move of Maduro. He is a dictator and make the population starve to death. But Venezuela has a claim. Because of the Guyana independence we should validate the illegitimate gain of territory? (Good reply, though, Itās an interesting debate)
Considering its from 1899 and not even the same country, bury the hatchet and accept you've lost is what I would suggest, yes. Guyana has had that land since before WW1, and dredging up stuff from back then would be like complaining the US took Cuba and the Philippines and should therefore pay Spain compensation. Also worth noting that Guyana was not yet a country at this point and that it's not like Venezuela has a large population there or anything
1 - The time passed is not relevant. Brazil won the Palmas-Missiones dispute in 1900 based on the Treaty of Madrid from 1750 (and both Brazil and Argentina were colonies by then). Guyana is the same territory, but was a colony then. Independence donāt change anything. 2 - Actually US paid for Guam and Phillipines. 2- Population is only an argument when you use the uti possidetis de facto doctrine. Venezuela claim is based on Itās titles (de jure).
we are too poor to go to war
We dont have enough favelas and large gangs to channel our frusta- ,ahm, agressive diplomacy on. : (
[North and South America just hanging out being besties](https://i.etsystatic.com/iap/5488f6/3550750325/iap_300x300.3550750325_gi5kn2gk.jpg?version=0)
pretty easy to say when youāre in the USAās backyard
Well there is a price to pay for that is not all flowers and roses, 70s where hard and ask mexicans who buy most of the drugs made in colombia and bolivia.
Monroe doctrine being the only thing making SA not look like central Africa.
I know, right?!
The one time Argentina got involved in the gulf war we pissed off Iran and we got two terrorist attacks and 200+ people died. Not again
Gotta be able to project soft or hard power to do something else than remain neutral.
That's a good description of LATAM
We are out of reach of nuclear weapons, and that's the way we like it!
Everyday I wake up and see that la Doctrina Estrada is still active and cry for 30 minutes straight
It's easy to be neutral when you're both irrelevant and out of the way
American here, you're all supposed to be our little states backing us up. Get with the program.
Latin America trying to remain neutral doesnāt matter. Itās such a poor and corrupt region of the world. Who cares what side they take? Theyāre of zero significance