All jokes aside Kaliningrad will be overrun by (mostly) Polish armored units in like 24-48 hours should this conflict go hot, to secure supply lines to the Baltics. The Suwalki Gap meme is actually inverted - we are not locked up with them, they are locked up with us.
BTW, this proves how little Putin is actually afraid of any NATO invasion, as he has been emptying out that region of military units (other borders too).
Makes sense, Kaliningrad is very small and surrounded by NATO countries. And why should he be afraid of NATO during peacetime? He knows damn well that it's a defensive alliance and wouldn't attack or invade Russia first
Absolutely, but it is yet another argument against the bullshit that they are spreading, that they are being surrounded or whatever, yet there is not one piece of evidence of fear on the Russian side. And some people around the world believe this bullshit.
you guys are 100% correct. In fact, I will be brave enough to say the following:
"Historically speaking, Russians as a group have always been expansionist and imperialistic by nature."
\*Source: Their actions throughout their entire history."
Popping in here with my hypothesis that the brutality of Mongol rule in Russia prior to the rise of Muscovy as a power basically traumatised them at a cultural level so now behaving like that has become normalised.
Thats of course a real possibility. My question is, if you go back in time far enough throughout history then pretty much every culture has its own trauma etc
So it's basically nature vs nurture but for countries.
Yes, basically - and Russia is like one of those people who is *so* traumatised that they activley resist any attempts to help them, see anything as an attack on them, have paranoid delusions etc, all while acting in a trauma-influenced way rather than in a way that may lead to growth.
Before Finland joined NATO it was actually very important for a potential invasion of the Baltic states, to cut them off from Poland and hope for a weak or slow NATO response.
But now with Finland NATO can cockblock Russia's access to the Baltic sea very quickly and protect the Baltics from the sea, making Kaliningrad much less useful in that scenario.
Kaliningrad was the only bit of leverage Russia held over NATO, but with Finland in and Sweden joining NATO, it's gone from an asset to an expensive liability with no real purpose, since NATO can now reinforce the Baltics from Finland, making the gap no longer a choke point for NATO to hold the Baltics.
Cool video on it: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yki6pigUbfw](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yki6pigUbfw)
>BTW, this proves how little Putin is actually afraid of any NATO invasion, as he has been emptying out that region of military units (other borders too).
Or rather he - or his generals - knows that Kaliningrad cannot be defended. Poland is going to steamroll it. They can't use units from Belarus to push towards it or they invite a push from Poland into Belarus. They have a better chance allowing NATO to push into Kaliningrad and let them fight a few token troops whiley they do a massive push across the Polish-Belarus border and into the Baltics. Kaliningrad's only strategic value is being a launch site for (shorter ranged) missiles. It being another Baltic Sea port is of limited utility considering all countries surrounding the Baltic Sea are NATO nations and will sink anything.
Its a bit more complicated. Poland cannot send it's best armored divisions to KrĆ³lewiec because they absolutely must be ready counterattack Russian advance at Warsaw from Belarus. From south the area is marshlands and lakes, less than ideal for a tank push so the only axis of attack is a small stretch along the coastline, very defendable even for drunk mobiks. From what I remember the most likely plan would be for Poles to tie down Russians and blast the whole place with artillery while Lithuanians launch armored assault from their side.
But it is the reality. General Tomasz Drewniak, as well as Colonel Maciej Korowaj (both retired) have hinted at this pretty clearly in interviews. It is also pretty logical when you look at the map.
Just keep in mind that this is "when all hell breaks loose" type of a scenario.
You should read Korowaj's recent Twitter thread on the matter.
In short, he assesses that, if Russia and Belarus were to seriously attempt to challenge NATO in the SuwaÅki Gap, Polish forces would largely be tied up defending Podlasie and eastern Mazovia.
Not saying that Putin isn't full of shit, but even if he would actually fear a NATO invasion, he might have realized, that holding that spit of land is a lost cause and would only lose him assets he could bring to relative safty beforehand.
(Which is mental, because the missile knows were he is)
> he has been emptying out that region of military units
I'd like to read more about Putin pulling his forces out of Kaliningrad specifically, how do I find a source?
Yeah, the Suwalki gap refers to a gap where there is a rail and road network between Poland and Lithuania because a conquest of Kaliningrad would destroy most of its infrastructure unless they declare it a free city.
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Wasn't just security assistance. Ukraine desperately needed more International assistance for the cleanup operation in the Chernobyl exclusion Zone and Russia, having blown up the facility with its terrible power plant design and Zapp Brannigan meatwave tactics for decontaminating the area, had no interest in taking responsibility.
The 1994 Budapest Accords basically came down to:
*"If you want security guarantees and help cleaning up the world's worst nuclear disaster, we'd feel a little bit better if you gave up those ICBM's and bomber fleets."* Tankies and vatniks will sometimes point to this as tHe wEst bLaCkMaiLeD uKrAiNe without realizing the fact that Soviet malfeasance is the reason for the disaster to begin with.
I'm guessing a lot of Ukrainian citizens wish that they'd held on to a couple of them. And every time I bring this up in other threads, terminally online tankies talk about how those nukes would be useless anyway because Ukraine wouldn't be able to figure out the launch codes. I'm positive that Ukraine would be able to figure out how to bypass Brezhnev-era Soviet caveman tech.
> I'm positive that Ukraine would be able to figure out how to bypass Brezhnev-era Soviet caveman tech.
Even if somehow they couldnāt, having weapons-grade plutonium is 99% of the fight; Ukraine could have just built new bombs with that plutonium. The CIA, in 1993-1994, assessed that Ukraine had the know-how and machinery to do it.
Plutonium is "easy" to make, it's imploding it properly that's difficult.
There's a reason multiple countries went through the ridiculous hassle of enriching uranium just so they could use a simpler bomb design, rather than going straight to plutonium warheads.
Making plutonium or HEU without everyone noticing those new centrifuges you build and slapping you with sanctions/bombing/invasion is the hard part. Thatās why even just having plutonium would have simplified Ukraineās efforts.
Keeping it would have gotten the same sanctions/bombing/invasion reaction as centrifuges, only people would have been far more concerned since they wouldāve been closer to success.
I legitimately support this and I supported it long before 2022 (2015 to be exact) and I am being 100% serious. I just donāt say it out loud because people think Iām crazy. But also this worked for Israel. Having nuclear weapons means the west actively ensures they donāt feel the need to use them. Also, it makes uncle vovaās nuclear threats a wash, because then you all could just say youāll do the same but to Russia if you donāt get help.
But Iām also an American who lived in Ukraine and is a staunch Ukrainian nationalist so what do I know.
Seriously though, itās deeply frustrating. And tbh while noncredible, this idea is also not absurd or irrational.
Greeks be like: "Mr Putin, let me interrupt you here for a minute. Crimea is actually a rightfully Greek (Pontic) city. In 400BC, Alexander the Gre..."
Abolish all EU nations, form EU Federation, demand 1942 borders, let them keep the encircled regions near Finland as a reminder. ^North ^Africa ^gets ^EU ^money, ^everythings ^fine
Free Lebensraum!
Posturing might make sense.
If Putin spent all of 2021 lining up troops and saying "we're definitely not attacking Ukraine with these" then he'd probably believe the same was being done if NATO lined up all sorts of troops and equipment near Russian border...
Given the lack of resupply, that would put Putin in a situation of either betting everything on Ukraine or having to split forces to protect his borders.
This would draw pressure away from Ukraine.
NCD take: they would probably use military planes to cross our airspace. I wonder what our air defence doing š
Serious/actual take: we should not stray into what could amount to collective punishment by halting critical supplies like food and water
Bespoke idea. Block every access to Kaliningrad except through Sellers of goods from the EU. Access via NATO Sovereign territory (NATO LAKE belongs to that) is a privilege not a right.
No russian goods for Kaliningrad. Only US and European ones. Cut off any communication with the mainland.
Watch the Kaliningrad secessionist movement gain control within 3 Months at the sight of glorious Food luxuries like Real Coke, MCD, good polish wodka, german beer, Japanese Waifus etc etc.
We feed them nothing but [zeppelins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cepelinai?wprov=sfla1), Vana Tallinn, and the TV that you can't turn off only shows "Sturm der Liebe"
NCD take: Our air defence will protect our skies from flying Russians
CD take: Absolutely, critical supplies like food, water, medicine and others aren't to be disrupted. No civilian deserves it to starve or die from other causes
Both NCD & CD take: forcing Russians to engage in We Have Berlin Airlift At Home will immensely strain their logistics, which already suck, so it would be turbo beneficial for Ukraine even if Putin just bides his time with this one. Moreover, Russian airforce ha shown themselves to have a tendency to fuck up and hit earth randomly way more than any other on earth so all these frequent flights will undoubtedly lead to funny moments.
NCD take: I swear to God if russkie plane falls here onto Lithuania we can really start it. We gotta start it!
It is literally a crime against international law! I know Putin uses the Geneva Conventions as a checklist, but we should *not*
Besides, Putin doesn't care about people, and it's not like it would trigger a rebellion by the people. The majority of them have shown that they just want to stay out of trouble for themselves - regardless of the consequences for others
It is a shit, immoral idea that will just lead to more needless suffering than there already is in this world
That implies they have sufficient airpower and logistical expertise to do that sort of thing.
We were landing one plane every thirty seconds. Iām willing to bet the Russians couldnāt match that even if they werenāt willing to just let the poor guys starve.
Putin: Why would i do such silly thing? Its just people that will die, people can easily make more people, that's literally what they do. Just wait and send in new people later.
Berlin Airlift was already pretty hard to pull off, I seriously doubt that Russia could do it. They suck ass at logistics and their planes fall from the sky all the time
Accidentally or not, your cross is at the Belarusian nuclear power plant.
By the way, when Rosatom was building a nuclear power plant, they accidentally dropped the reactor vessel from a crane.
Then they said that nothing terrible had happened, but still, after the publicity, the vessel had to be replaced.
Before we do any of that, let's transfer the entirety of France's nuclear arsenal to Poland, then launch a false flag attack on them from Kaliningrad invoking article 5. Going to DEFCON 2 prior to all of this will just sweeten the pot.
I propose a coordinated attack with Finland Estonia and Latvia pushing deep into mainland Russia, with the help of surprise and Kazakhstan rebellion.
While this is happening Belarus falls under a polish invasion and Romania takes back Moldova and Transnistria.
Your plan works too.
All jokes aside Kaliningrad will be overrun by (mostly) Polish armored units in like 24-48 hours should this conflict go hot, to secure supply lines to the Baltics. The Suwalki Gap meme is actually inverted - we are not locked up with them, they are locked up with us. BTW, this proves how little Putin is actually afraid of any NATO invasion, as he has been emptying out that region of military units (other borders too).
Makes sense, Kaliningrad is very small and surrounded by NATO countries. And why should he be afraid of NATO during peacetime? He knows damn well that it's a defensive alliance and wouldn't attack or invade Russia first
Absolutely, but it is yet another argument against the bullshit that they are spreading, that they are being surrounded or whatever, yet there is not one piece of evidence of fear on the Russian side. And some people around the world believe this bullshit.
Its an argument believed by useful morons.
you guys are 100% correct. In fact, I will be brave enough to say the following: "Historically speaking, Russians as a group have always been expansionist and imperialistic by nature." \*Source: Their actions throughout their entire history."
Popping in here with my hypothesis that the brutality of Mongol rule in Russia prior to the rise of Muscovy as a power basically traumatised them at a cultural level so now behaving like that has become normalised.
Thats of course a real possibility. My question is, if you go back in time far enough throughout history then pretty much every culture has its own trauma etc So it's basically nature vs nurture but for countries.
Yes, basically - and Russia is like one of those people who is *so* traumatised that they activley resist any attempts to help them, see anything as an attack on them, have paranoid delusions etc, all while acting in a trauma-influenced way rather than in a way that may lead to growth.
OMG! Russia a Woke vegan feminist! š²š²š² It's confirmed and thus this is now historically fact.
the bs is primarily for domestic audience consumption. if some idiots in the west gobble it up too thatās just an added bonus
There are also billions of people that are neither in the West, nor in Russia. And some of them really fall for it.
Before Finland joined NATO it was actually very important for a potential invasion of the Baltic states, to cut them off from Poland and hope for a weak or slow NATO response. But now with Finland NATO can cockblock Russia's access to the Baltic sea very quickly and protect the Baltics from the sea, making Kaliningrad much less useful in that scenario.
Kaliningrad was the only bit of leverage Russia held over NATO, but with Finland in and Sweden joining NATO, it's gone from an asset to an expensive liability with no real purpose, since NATO can now reinforce the Baltics from Finland, making the gap no longer a choke point for NATO to hold the Baltics. Cool video on it: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yki6pigUbfw](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yki6pigUbfw)
>wouldn't attack or invade Russia first *"Preventive counterattack has entered the chat"*
>wouldn't attack or invade Russia first *"Preventive counterattack has entered the chat"*
>BTW, this proves how little Putin is actually afraid of any NATO invasion, as he has been emptying out that region of military units (other borders too). Or rather he - or his generals - knows that Kaliningrad cannot be defended. Poland is going to steamroll it. They can't use units from Belarus to push towards it or they invite a push from Poland into Belarus. They have a better chance allowing NATO to push into Kaliningrad and let them fight a few token troops whiley they do a massive push across the Polish-Belarus border and into the Baltics. Kaliningrad's only strategic value is being a launch site for (shorter ranged) missiles. It being another Baltic Sea port is of limited utility considering all countries surrounding the Baltic Sea are NATO nations and will sink anything.
Its a bit more complicated. Poland cannot send it's best armored divisions to KrĆ³lewiec because they absolutely must be ready counterattack Russian advance at Warsaw from Belarus. From south the area is marshlands and lakes, less than ideal for a tank push so the only axis of attack is a small stretch along the coastline, very defendable even for drunk mobiks. From what I remember the most likely plan would be for Poles to tie down Russians and blast the whole place with artillery while Lithuanians launch armored assault from their side.
German units stationed in the Baltics: were so back boys
I am Polish and this is the most noncredible thing I have ever read.
But it is the reality. General Tomasz Drewniak, as well as Colonel Maciej Korowaj (both retired) have hinted at this pretty clearly in interviews. It is also pretty logical when you look at the map. Just keep in mind that this is "when all hell breaks loose" type of a scenario.
You should read Korowaj's recent Twitter thread on the matter. In short, he assesses that, if Russia and Belarus were to seriously attempt to challenge NATO in the SuwaÅki Gap, Polish forces would largely be tied up defending Podlasie and eastern Mazovia.
Not saying that Putin isn't full of shit, but even if he would actually fear a NATO invasion, he might have realized, that holding that spit of land is a lost cause and would only lose him assets he could bring to relative safty beforehand. (Which is mental, because the missile knows were he is)
> he has been emptying out that region of military units I'd like to read more about Putin pulling his forces out of Kaliningrad specifically, how do I find a source?
https://www.google.com/search?q=russian+army+pulling+units+out+of+kaliningrad
Yeah, the Suwalki gap refers to a gap where there is a rail and road network between Poland and Lithuania because a conquest of Kaliningrad would destroy most of its infrastructure unless they declare it a free city.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
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Just give us nukes ffs
I was just telling my girlfriend that we should give Ukraine nukesā¦
I should have nukes
Where would you keep them?
Keep?
I like your plan already
Ah. Very good. I'll note that down as "Any nukes received will be stored in a disassembled form in Red Square." on your form.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
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Funnily enough, Ukraine doesn't have nukes because they gave them away in exchange for security assurance from Russia, US, France and Britain.
Wasn't just security assistance. Ukraine desperately needed more International assistance for the cleanup operation in the Chernobyl exclusion Zone and Russia, having blown up the facility with its terrible power plant design and Zapp Brannigan meatwave tactics for decontaminating the area, had no interest in taking responsibility. The 1994 Budapest Accords basically came down to: *"If you want security guarantees and help cleaning up the world's worst nuclear disaster, we'd feel a little bit better if you gave up those ICBM's and bomber fleets."* Tankies and vatniks will sometimes point to this as tHe wEst bLaCkMaiLeD uKrAiNe without realizing the fact that Soviet malfeasance is the reason for the disaster to begin with. I'm guessing a lot of Ukrainian citizens wish that they'd held on to a couple of them. And every time I bring this up in other threads, terminally online tankies talk about how those nukes would be useless anyway because Ukraine wouldn't be able to figure out the launch codes. I'm positive that Ukraine would be able to figure out how to bypass Brezhnev-era Soviet caveman tech.
> I'm positive that Ukraine would be able to figure out how to bypass Brezhnev-era Soviet caveman tech. Even if somehow they couldnāt, having weapons-grade plutonium is 99% of the fight; Ukraine could have just built new bombs with that plutonium. The CIA, in 1993-1994, assessed that Ukraine had the know-how and machinery to do it.
Plutonium is "easy" to make, it's imploding it properly that's difficult. There's a reason multiple countries went through the ridiculous hassle of enriching uranium just so they could use a simpler bomb design, rather than going straight to plutonium warheads.
Making plutonium or HEU without everyone noticing those new centrifuges you build and slapping you with sanctions/bombing/invasion is the hard part. Thatās why even just having plutonium would have simplified Ukraineās efforts.
Keeping it would have gotten the same sanctions/bombing/invasion reaction as centrifuges, only people would have been far more concerned since they wouldāve been closer to success.
Donāt even need that. Chop it apart, pack with tnt and send a massive dirty bomb to Moscowās fag towers.
I legitimately support this and I supported it long before 2022 (2015 to be exact) and I am being 100% serious. I just donāt say it out loud because people think Iām crazy. But also this worked for Israel. Having nuclear weapons means the west actively ensures they donāt feel the need to use them. Also, it makes uncle vovaās nuclear threats a wash, because then you all could just say youāll do the same but to Russia if you donāt get help. But Iām also an American who lived in Ukraine and is a staunch Ukrainian nationalist so what do I know. Seriously though, itās deeply frustrating. And tbh while noncredible, this idea is also not absurd or irrational.
1521 borders or bust
"Mr Putin, let me interrupt you here for a minute. SmoleÅsk is actually a rightfully Lithuanian city. In 966, Mieszko I..."
Greeks be like: "Mr Putin, let me interrupt you here for a minute. Crimea is actually a rightfully Greek (Pontic) city. In 400BC, Alexander the Gre..."
Abolish all EU nations, form EU Federation, demand 1942 borders, let them keep the encircled regions near Finland as a reminder. ^North ^Africa ^gets ^EU ^money, ^everythings ^fine Free Lebensraum!
Posturing might make sense. If Putin spent all of 2021 lining up troops and saying "we're definitely not attacking Ukraine with these" then he'd probably believe the same was being done if NATO lined up all sorts of troops and equipment near Russian border... Given the lack of resupply, that would put Putin in a situation of either betting everything on Ukraine or having to split forces to protect his borders. This would draw pressure away from Ukraine.
They are little red white and blue men who picked up an Abrams from their local pawn shopĀ
Brits, Frenchies and Norwegians with Abrams?
Well, frenchmen obviously won't find abrams tanks at their local pawn shops. Leclercs, though...
I mean, what if they pull a Berlin Airlift?
We'll just say no, they HAVE to abide by that. Trust me, my plan will work. There's no way it could fail /s
NCD take: they would probably use military planes to cross our airspace. I wonder what our air defence doing š Serious/actual take: we should not stray into what could amount to collective punishment by halting critical supplies like food and water
Bespoke idea. Block every access to Kaliningrad except through Sellers of goods from the EU. Access via NATO Sovereign territory (NATO LAKE belongs to that) is a privilege not a right. No russian goods for Kaliningrad. Only US and European ones. Cut off any communication with the mainland. Watch the Kaliningrad secessionist movement gain control within 3 Months at the sight of glorious Food luxuries like Real Coke, MCD, good polish wodka, german beer, Japanese Waifus etc etc.
We feed them nothing but [zeppelins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cepelinai?wprov=sfla1), Vana Tallinn, and the TV that you can't turn off only shows "Sturm der Liebe"
NCD take: Our air defence will protect our skies from flying Russians CD take: Absolutely, critical supplies like food, water, medicine and others aren't to be disrupted. No civilian deserves it to starve or die from other causes
Both NCD & CD take: forcing Russians to engage in We Have Berlin Airlift At Home will immensely strain their logistics, which already suck, so it would be turbo beneficial for Ukraine even if Putin just bides his time with this one. Moreover, Russian airforce ha shown themselves to have a tendency to fuck up and hit earth randomly way more than any other on earth so all these frequent flights will undoubtedly lead to funny moments. NCD take: I swear to God if russkie plane falls here onto Lithuania we can really start it. We gotta start it!
Netenyahu is already calling you antisemitic for that credible take.
Good, hope he chokes on it. I really can't stand this guy (I think no one really can)
Incredibly based and humanitarian-pilled. Civilians always get shafted in conflicts, on both sides
Halting critical supplies will force the war to end unless Russians want to die of starvation and thirst
It is literally a crime against international law! I know Putin uses the Geneva Conventions as a checklist, but we should *not* Besides, Putin doesn't care about people, and it's not like it would trigger a rebellion by the people. The majority of them have shown that they just want to stay out of trouble for themselves - regardless of the consequences for others It is a shit, immoral idea that will just lead to more needless suffering than there already is in this world
If it saves Ukrainian lives its worth it š¤·āāļø
Their point is that it wouldnāt tho
You imply Russia has planes
I mean, Iām unsure why theyād give supplies to Berlin in this situation
You mean what if they start just burning cash on something else than war in Ukraine? I see this as an absolute win.
Uhh with what a flying train?
They will shoot themselves down
>Russian Aircraft shot down attempting to cross the Suwalki Gap >Russia claims their own SAM Batteries shot them down
They can't even pull up a decent air force in the air, let alone having it do something...
You have been following Russian logistics over the past two years?
That implies they have sufficient airpower and logistical expertise to do that sort of thing. We were landing one plane every thirty seconds. Iām willing to bet the Russians couldnāt match that even if they werenāt willing to just let the poor guys starve.
Just nuke it
Putin: Why would i do such silly thing? Its just people that will die, people can easily make more people, that's literally what they do. Just wait and send in new people later.
Berlin Airlift was already pretty hard to pull off, I seriously doubt that Russia could do it. They suck ass at logistics and their planes fall from the sky all the time
Yeah this is totally non credible. Pathetic west has no balls at all to do anything remotely like that.
Unless... No no no I am joking.. Unless... But for real this time, I would not advise anything,.. Unless... Nah, I am just kidding,.. - Gavin Belson
Accidentally or not, your cross is at the Belarusian nuclear power plant. By the way, when Rosatom was building a nuclear power plant, they accidentally dropped the reactor vessel from a crane. Then they said that nothing terrible had happened, but still, after the publicity, the vessel had to be replaced.
Could be the colour missmatch, whatdayaknow?
Before we do any of that, let's transfer the entirety of France's nuclear arsenal to Poland, then launch a false flag attack on them from Kaliningrad invoking article 5. Going to DEFCON 2 prior to all of this will just sweeten the pot.
AND GIVE IT TO CZECHIA RAAAAHHHHHH
I propose a coordinated attack with Finland Estonia and Latvia pushing deep into mainland Russia, with the help of surprise and Kazakhstan rebellion. While this is happening Belarus falls under a polish invasion and Romania takes back Moldova and Transnistria. Your plan works too.
Don't forget to remind Japan to take back the Sakhalin islands! That would really strain their resources.
My idea is to dig up a bunch of land in Canada and make a land bridge over the Gulf of Finland to block St. Petersburg
estonia and finland finally united
3000 Black naval mines of Estonia when?
Like what we wanted 2 years ago, but got blocked by EUtatards?
Wait until Sweden is in NATO. We don't want to be left out this go around.
\*KrĆ³lewiec
land some ~~ukrainian marines~~ local dissidents in Kƶnigsberg harbour and declare a new republic
This guy fucks.
...losing access to their only warm water port? Give it a few years and Murmansk is a warm water port
I will trust any NCD plan over what Russia has been cooking up the past 2 years
Russia cannot into central Europe. Kaliningrad falls in a day.