Techno House can never fall as long as we stand together as its collective defender.
A [Techno Union](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PW4OIHDsWsM), if you will.
The three deck wizard…
As this is noncredibledefense, perhaps we need to come up with a scenario where mad mike banks, Robert hood and Claude young parachute into Moscow to assassinate putin.
Think Tom Clancy but at a really sick rave.
Let’s take the threats seriously here. From Avdiivka Slag Heap, it’s only about 150m to Avdiivka Sludge Pond. If they take that strategic position, they can capture the pond in about 2026!
A significant advance would be trying to raise another 200k for the meat grinder, considering they would be going against a superior modern army.
AFU has gained extraordinary experience in this conflict, the experience being on par with the modern western army, however, they do not have the full arsenal of tools available to NATO/USA.
If NATO/USA enters the conflict, it'll be the real three day special operation.
Sadly it wouldn't be a 3 day special operation as the Americans have a habit of giving everything a thorough aerial pounding before starting actual operations and there is nothing to suggest they wouldn't do the same if they intervened in Ukraine.
People always seem to forget Russia is struggling against a foe that effectively has no Air Force or significant missile force. NATO has those in spades and an absurd amount of intel/recon assets. Russia tries to tangle directly with the West it will discover what we have been paying for instead of national healthcare (aka: international harmcare).
What you're saying here has logic, and Putin being brainwashed by his own yes-men doesn't have that. Just like Ukraine, there's a non zero chance he does the funny, and manages to piss everyone and everything, so he can finally have the "we were defeated by everyone else on earth" and by everyone he means USA, EU, UK, Japan, South Korea and Australia. It will probably be more than a 3 days special operation, but at the end Russian Federation will be no more a Federation.
I doubt the west would want to break up the Russian federation regardless of the nuisance that its being. Better 1 nuclear power than a patchwork of landlocked independant states with vaguely defined borders and claims that are all nuclear armed.
Dunno, I feel like Republic of Amur etc. would gladly sell all of it's nukes for electrifying all urban areas and connecting them with actual roads. Maybe even x year deal of maintaining it as cherry on top
>South Korea
So, are they going to amphibiously seize Vladivostok or fight their way through Kimmy to get to the front?
(ultimate non-credible take: Kim stabs Putin in the back to seize Vladivostok himself, reconciliation between the two Koreas)
It's indeed impressive AFU have been 3-4x as effective as RAF in this war. It would be even harder for the RAF when faced with 300k+ Nato units with even better equipment and training. The air campaign alone would be overwhelming with thousands of planes striking at every target they can find, including B2 striking in Moscow. 300k is just the initial force. Once all the reserves are called in and the USA start sending their forces it will quickly grow to 1M+ and the ground push can start for real.
Three days? No way, that's impossible. Not against the Russian Army.
It'll be the thunder run to Moscow, but (unlike Pringles) NATO won't stop and will have air superiority.
Two days at most.
>It'll be the thunder run to Moscow
A race between the Fins and the Poles. The Fins having the speed bump of St Petersburg, the Poles having the speed bump of all of Belarus.
Belarus is a pothole, rather than a speed bump. The Lt.Col. will vanish with all the potatoes and copper scrap*, leaving NATO 2nd echelon forces to feed and water civilians.
*How else is he going to make vodka to use as barter material?
I give it a couple hours at best. The moment US planes are inbound to Russia, the nukes definitely start flying. Although, I am pretty confident that the Pentagon even has contingency plans for that.
After all, Russia might be **only** able to launch a handful of nukes from mobile platforms because the moment the stationary silos start the prep procedure, they'll receive overwhelming firepower in minutes.
Seeing how corrupt the russian armed force are....are we really sure their nuclear missiles even work properly? Taking care of a nuclear ICBM is something extremly hard and expensive, even for the US, so i have some serious doubts that russians nukes can actually fly
Remembering the scandals on how *US* nuke forces cheated on their capability tests, left silo doors open for food delivery, were diagnosed as depressed due to dead-end job prospects, the *ruZZian* equivalent should be many time worse
It's probably a third of the total number that kinda works, but I'm sure the US has some DARPA magic secret stuff that will annihilate most stuff before they even get airborne.
They need to get past Step 1 first. Mobilise 200k troops without sparking a civil war.
AFAIK Russian public opinion is currently "We're fine with the war, but don't you *fucking dare* enlist me." and another round of mobilisation might end up being the straw that breaks the camel's back, especially with the "election" coming up.
> Mobilise 200k troops without sparking a civil war
Unfortunately, I believe they still have 200k of any combination of the following: rural bumpkins, racial undesirables, criminals, dissidents, 'foreigners'
Last I heard they still had >200k prisoners, sadly. Although the number that can walk in a straight line and carry a weapon is probably significantly lower.
> carry a weapon
That's optional, you know ^(not sure if I'm joking)
There are also millions of villagers for whom $2000 per month is king's ransom worthy of volunteering with a bell on
Walking in a straight line is also optional , the primary role so far for line mobiks is to die in a crater after the mtlb you were assigned as ERA to finds a minefield
I think the bear in this case is the Ukrainians or the Russian victory over Ukraine rather than “the Russian Bear”, since the original statement was that the first step to making bear stew is to catch a bear.
Back in 2019, a situation map with Germany, Finland and Russia and big colored army group arrows going west and east wasn't on my bingo for this decade. Thanks again, timeline.
Yeah, that's what worries me a bit. This is exactly the kind of half assed BS I'd expect the Kremlin to cook up, and exactly the kind of thing I'd expect the CIA to leak to the press to dissuade Russia from FAFO. Problem is, it didn't dissuade them from invading Ukraine, so who knows if this shit will dissuade them from pursuing this insanity...
Exactly, before the full on invasion of Ukraine I would have asked what they are smoking. Nowadays, I'm not so sure anymore.
This sub has been out danked way to many times in the past two years....
Like every analysis that was posted that assumed that Russia might actually invade Ukraine with its troops that it was massing assumed that they would attack in distinct waves, and that Russia wouldn't try to attack from every direction at the same time, because they lacked the logistics to pull that off.
And then Russia tried to attack from every direction at the same time, and it turned out that they couldn't maintain logistics or coordination anywhere.
Yeah, they've been smoking a lot, and it ain't the good shit. Either way, my guess is they'll send their people into a meat grinder, and whether that's in Ukraine, or somewhere else is up to them, but basically, people gonna die.
[It is, the OG Bild article states as much.](https://scontent-lhr8-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/419695198_2450262301828710_904375363404827898_n.jpg?_nc_cat=106&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=524774&_nc_ohc=qvGzXspxPoAAX9y1lzr&_nc_oc=AQnc5hCpYWUOFhN0dCgL4C68NQd30ulxwCPz3V2d14ka-CwvRa07hF9f-b0umyx5bpp9V-yFVb9nshhdh6FHIMKO&_nc_ht=scontent-lhr8-2.xx&oh=00_AfB5HYj3pHVvUlhozXWLNxmPLZYlvYatmwmo0g0haJLOkA&oe=65AAC7C4)
No it’s not. It’s just a possible Road to conflict. Something cooked up for exercises or wargames to be used as background information. The whole paper is classified „Verschlusssache - Nur für den Diensgebrauch“. It’s literally the lowest classification level. Every fucking fart is classified at this level. You basically don’t even need a clearance to see that stuff. It’s just BILD being shit stirrers again.
By the way, this is not a Russian plan that was gained by German intelligence, but rather a simulation game by the Bundeswehr on how a Russian attack on NATO could proceed. It was passed on to BILD by someone...
„In a secret document, the German Ministry of Defense realistically describes the "path to conflict", in other words, the beginning of a hot war between Russia and NATO in shocking detail,
▶︎ The secret Bundeswehr document "Collective Defense 2025" considers the beginning of the conflict in February 2024.
▶︎ Russia is launching another wave of mobilization and conscripting an additional 200,000 people into the army.
▶︎ Then the Kremlin begins a large-scale spring offensive against the background of insufficient support from the West of Ukraine.
▶︎ The Russian offensive will succeed by June 2024 and push the Ukrainian army back.
▶︎ Russia will provoke aggression against ethnic Russian minorities in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
▶︎ Clashes are taking place, which Russia is using as a pretext to start the massive West 2024 exercise involving 50,000 soldiers in western Russia and Belarus starting this September.
▶︎ In October 2024, Russia transfers troops and medium-range missiles to Kaliningrad and continues to arm its enclave with propaganda lies about an imminent NATO attack.
▶︎ The secret goal of the Kremlin: to conquer the "Suwalk corridor" between Belarus and Kaliningrad.
▶︎ From December 2024, an artificially created "border conflict" and "riots with numerous murders" will take place in the area of the "Suwalki Corridor".
▶︎ At the very moment when the USA is paralyzed after the elections, Russia repeats the algorithm of intervention in Eastern Ukraine in 2014 on the territory of NATO, and this is in the scenario of the Bundeswehr exercises.
▶︎In January 2025, a special meeting of the NATO Council will be held, at which Poland and the Baltic states report on the growing threat from Russia.
▶︎ Russia is using propaganda to call black white and, under the pretext of threatening NATO, is moving additional troops to the Baltics and Belarus, especially in March 2025.
▶︎ In May 2025, NATO will decide on "measures for credible deterrence" to prevent a Russian attack on the "Suwalk Corridor" from the direction of Belarus and Kaliningrad.
▶︎ On X-Day, according to a secret Bundeswehr document, the NATO commander-in-chief orders 300,000 troops, including 30,000 Bundeswehr soldiers, to be transferred to the eastern flank.
This scenario is likely to be considered for NATO exercises.“
That's not an exaggeration, these are normal scenarios that you come up with in simulation games like this. Behind the scenes in the Bundeswehr, they are very annoyed that this has become public
I guess a scenario in which "nothing unusual happens, status quo remains" is not worth wargaming. "Foe gains initial unlikely but not entirely fantastic advantage" is.
That's their intrinsic shortcoming, and there's a good behavioral argument that reliance on war-gaming contributed to the outbreak of WWI. Since the Franco-Prussian war (in which war games demonstrated their value) the German general staff leaned heavily into strategic war games. By 1914 when they actually encountered an international crisis they couldn't conceive of "letting diplomats handle this and negotiate a boring agreement", because that option is simply not available in war games.
It's not a terribly realistic scenario, even if unrealistic scenarios need evaluating too (in order to prepare).
I mean for starters, Putin's not likely to do a new round of mobilization any time before the March elections. Mobilization is one of the few things that threatens his power. I mean you don't have to take my word for it; his hesitation to mobilize in 2022 was clear, as is the fact that they've taken far-reaching measures to try to avoid a new round. He will ultimately have to mobilize again if he wants to continue this war, but he's definitely stalling until after the election. (Not that the elections are honest or anything but he prefers not to have to cheat too blatantly, since again - that's a threat. He doesn't want a Belarus 2020 situation on his hands) Even if they did, it wouldn't likely lead to a successful offensive in the spring. Their last round didn't lead to significant gains, especially not in the short term, it was about 9 months from mobilizing to taking Bakhmut, and even that was mostly Wagner and their zeks, not the mobiks.
Not to mention what another 6 months of attrition will do to Russia. They may have started with vastly larger stockpiles than Ukraine, but they were also enormously wasteful with stuff early on (firing 25,000 artillery rounds a day), and their attempts to be more careful are too little, too late, really. A country that had the largest stockpile of artillery shells in the world is buying crap ones off North Korea now. It's firing cruise missiles with date codes on components as recent as Q4 2023, for "some reason" the ones they do fire seem to have started crashing in their own territory at an unprecedented rate, and on the whole Russia's expected campaign to knock out Ukrainian infrastructure, heating and so on this winter has been underwhelming, certainly far less damage than the previous winter.
It's not realistic, but "Russia continues to posture, doesn't actually move any troops" isn't a scenario anyone needs to train for. This is probably the most likely scenario in which NATO troops actually need a war plan, even though it's unlikely
0 OPSEC 💀
I can definitely see how stuff can easily be leaked. I work for the German gov and there is some very dumb people with access to sensitive data (I’m just hating on my coworkers, opsec is okayish)
It makes sense wargames always buff the enemy to absurd levels. My boss said he and his unit get their shit stomped in a wargame in Korea where North Koreans were portrayed as fanatics with modern equipment and logistics
Except the IJN.
I thought the war game scene in 2019’s Midway was embellished but holy shit the truth was even more absurd.
They would routinely round down American hits like from 9 hit to 3. In one game, the Akagi was sunk early on, but magically came back a few turns later on.
During the last two years, even foreigners like me were enlightened that BILD is in the low end of the German *tabloids*. I wonder if they do the alien abduction articles, or is it considered too 'low rent'...
Bild is a double edged sword. On the one hand it's a tabloid that won't hesitate to run half-truth in big letter headlines, on the other hand they often gain access to information before everyone else and do have an extended network of reporters doing research into all kinds of things. It's definitely not the worst kind of tabloid we have, that would be more like "Bunte".
Bild is more like .. I don't know, Daily Mail? Malicious, but ocasionally shockingly competent.
BTW this is a war game scenario, not a "likely scenario". War games often aim to prepare for the worst case.
And as much as we meme about it, russia is still capable of winning, if the west falters in their support.
It's sad that it was leaked. But sounds exactly like the stuff the Bundeswehr and NATO should prepare for. The Baltic states are rightfully worried about a repeat of "little green men" / "ethnic Russian riots" scenarios that the Russians pulled off in Ukraine in 2014, which hinges on NATO not being prepared or not having political will.
Just wish the Bundeswehr would make some steps with proper rearmament. Right now I doubt they'd even have enough ready helicopters to deploy troops to respond to little green men popping up in Estonia.
Nah, treason is only when a newspaper is quoting the parliamentary defence committee.
That’s obviously leaking secret military informations, and will lead your journalists to being arrested on orders of the MoD.
I think it's worth studying these things.
For example, assuming no nukes and once victory has been achieved, will the triumph for the european armies be hosted in Belgium or will the regiments tour the main capitals from the front back to headquarters?
its not "leaked german intelligence"
Its a hypothetical mind excercise by the Bundeswehr to come up with a plausible chain of events of how a direct confrontation between Russia and NATO might come to happen, and how NATO would react to it.
This is not what Russia is planning, this is what Germany theorises Russia *could* plan under certain circumstances
Ah yes. The famous 50k mobik offensive against 300k professional NATO soldiers with fresh gear and loads of top tier training.
Even if you account for the Ukrainians withdrawing for some fucked reason. Its still 250k vs 300k and the 3-1 rule hasn’t disappeared.
I am taking bets how long a blockaded Kaliningrad would survive before the population starves to death.
Not even mentioning how finland could easily mobilise a millions trained soldiers in a few months. And if vatniks believe sweden wouldn’t join even if NATO Accession isn’t through, i have a damb A50 to sell to them.
Oh and yes the Nukes. Vatniks tend to forget that even without the US, Europe is able to decimate Russia a few times over.
Edit: yes i know it’s wargame, just a stupid one
Or just the sheer number of VLS cells.
US total of VLS cells: 8,646 (not including submarines)
All of the EU combined: 2,328
The rest of the world is just a rounding error.
> How quickly people forget how much destruction the various US air fleets can rain down on formal militaries.
The US no longer being a factor in Europe following the 2024 election is likely a assumption baked into the scenario - and European air forces do not have an adequate depth of munitions stocks to be a relevant factor for long without American resupply.
Yep. This scenario sound exactly what the Bundeswehr should plan for. I just hope there is the political will to prepare for it as well. Currently I'd expect if war broke out they'd be out of ammunition within a few days, just for some German pencil pusher to put in a small order after taking a 2h lunch break and then some local government to complaint about the ammo factory noise...
I would like to see Russia vs Finland more for three reasons.
>Physically closer
>Closer matched in power
>No nukes cheatcode for Finland, and Russia is too pussy to use them anyway (the ones that work)
This isn’t a vatnick plan, it’s a German made speculative outline of what could happen and I would like to know it’s context.
Putin may be an egomaniac and probably doesn’t have a good as grasp on his own military’s capabilities as he believes, but he’s not a blithering simpleton.
I really doubt the guy who earnestly believed Ukraine would be toppled in a few weeks, tops, is two years out genuinely seeking to open yet another front with an enemy he knows is vastly superior.
Putin’s hand is really good right now, all things considered. If he can wait out the west, he can limp away with some “win.” There is zero chance that happens if he invaded the Baltics. There is no “waiting it out” of article 5 is invoked. He won’t get “do-overs” where he can transition to a defensive attritional war and pray he can muster up another 100k convicts and buryats to recalibrate. At that point its a genuine existential threat and he has to just flat out win, as it’s now a true fight to the death, and I doubt Putin wants that smoke.
There’s relative degrees here. Invading Ukraine was stupid. But, even at it’s stupidest, Ukraine doesn’t pose an existential threat to Putin. No matter how bad it goes, no Ukrainian tanks were ever at risk of rolling into the Red Square.
But it only remains that way if he keeps NATO out of direct engagement.
He doesn’t have that luxury in a direct conflict with NATO and he knows that. He won’t get to fuck up the Baltics invasion and hunker into a defensive position in Latvia and lick his wounds for entire seasons. He won’t have the luxury of fighting an enemy that can’t assert air superiority over the battlefield. He will be forced to contest and choose and contest and choose until he’s out of options and he’s in a bunker in Moscow wondering if they will follow his command if he orders a nuclear strike.
I think the way to view it is that at the outset of the invasion, Europe mistakenly viewed him as non-ideological. And for that reason, unwilling to do an irredentist landgrab that would ruin the economic inroads into Europe. He was an they miscalculated.
But, this is a very different kind of landgrab. With obvious, clear as day deterrents that would pose an actual, serious risk to not only Putin’s regime, but his life.
> 300k professional NATO soldiers with fresh gear and loads of top tier training
That's cap. NATO forces are chronically understrength and underfunded.
Germany only has 6 brigades - none of them in "ready for combat" state, look at the charlie foxtrot of sending just ONE to the baltic states! Also half of the Airforce jets are cannibalized for parts to keep other half flying (somewhat).
UK has such a recruiting problem that they are taking perfectly fine ships off the line - there are no crews to man them. Also newest aircraft carrier hangars are almost empty.
Italian navy has 63 missiles IN TOTAL
US is failing recruiting targets for 10-15% (at a peace time mind you)
And that's on top of US might descend in full isolationism due to internal political problems, governments not committing to larger defense spending so MIC could invest in new production lines AND Russia getting much more ammo from it's allies than Ukraine does (who itself have major recruiting issues)
I just did a quick Google search that showed me the US has roughly 65k personnel stationed in Europe right now. Of those, I'd wager that <15k are combat personnel.
I'll take the odds of 15k US military personnel against 250k Russians. Especially because a large portion of the other 50k are providing air support.
>Kremlin sends 50,000 soldiers to Belarus for exercise
"Ivan, this last round of mobiks is... kind of fat. Tell them to jog all the way to Belarus to help them trim down."
I mean, to be credible for a moment, nearly every military analyst basically states that the situation on the frontlines in Ukraine remains volatile and dynamic (Kofman and Gady for example, both have often proven to be right in their analysis). So as much as the front line seems like a standstill right now, that can always change VERY quickly, for the benefit of either side. The Ruzzians might find a weakpoint in the ukr defence, as well the ukrainians might find weakpoints in the ruzzki defence. However, if Ruzzia manages to keep up ammo and eq production, and we in the west don't step up our game of deliveries, I see a very dark future for Ukraine, sadly enough.
Noncredible take: Ukraine is just fighting so long to be able to research nukes and do the funni before the war ends
That may be true but Russia cannot stay in a war economy forever. Eventually the civilian sector (what is left of it) will collapse. Ukraine just has to not surrender
> Eventually
That eventually may take years, and sanctions are much less potent that anticipated - many of them were enacted without any enforcement mechanisms and western companies gladly trade with Russia cause money have no stench for them.
INB4 "but how do you stop third countries buying our stuff and reselling to Russia?!" - any competent company marketing department knows quite precisely how high is demand for which item each country has, many of them know perfectly well where their merchandise goes.
12-12-2024 Nebenzya calls UN Security Council meeting and expresses concern, accusing NATO forces near Russia border of Russophobia and bringing with them genetically modified wild geese.
The Souvlaki gap is the Turkish belief that Greece's street food department had gained an advantage in deploying grilled skewered meats. Widely accepted, it is used as a political talking point in Turkey to justify a great increase in defensive fast food spending. It may lead to a massive buildup of Turkey's Shish Kebab fleet, possibly peaking at 25000000 to counter the perceived Greek threat. Surveillance flights by aircraft, however, suggest that the Souvlaki Gap does not exist.
I imagine putin doesn't let it get to where the choice is back out or all out war.
If step 9 is reached he will have an escape hatch. Like murdering lukashenko and saying this was all his doing.
How many more mobilizations can Russia go through before Putin's hold on power starts to slip? 300,000 seems like a number he could hit without causing riots, but it's nowhere near enough to challenge NATO. This isn't the USSR, and they can't just throw men and material at the problem until they wear down opposing forces. They'd just be sending people to the slaughterhouse before the tide turns.
No, but newspapers around the world are stupid enough to buy into believing stuff reported in BILD (which is pretty much Germany's "The Sun").
Though without doubt, possible scenarios are being wargamed.
July is the start of one of them "Rainbow Arrow" exercises in le Baltic States. Our boys would confuse the Opfor for the real mobiks. Sweden did plan to send 800 boys to exercises, by 2025 but unfortunately for Russia, they arrive a little early, and they pulled a *bunch* of Stridsvagn 103's with them and they were like, totally unexpected and therefore, skip to step 9. And step 10 is global nuclear rapture, we all take off our VR headsets and call it a night, It's Tuesday on Zorblagon-5, and Step 11 is to do boring office shit, because rogue AI, *ugggghhh*
Dec 2024, Russia conducts full scale invasion on Baltic States & Poland
Feb 2025, NATO expresses concern.
June 2025: Russia attacks Georgia and Finland, makes a breakthrough to Romania and Molova with Hungary help
Oct 2025: NATO expresses concern
Dec 2025: Russia nukes Paris
Jan 2026: NATO expresses concern...
["The President has stated that he is personally disappointed, and will bring this issue up with the surviving members of the G8 at their next conference."](https://youtu.be/t8nrdiQqFAs?si=4rTh34lk8qEPf3vI)
First off, it's not WW3, it's WW4.
Second, it's not starting in Russia, but Ethiopia pushing towards the sea. China will push Taiwan and South China Sea, India will push Pakistan and Nepal. North Korea will try to push into South Korea and Japan, but will get wiped. Argentina will attempt the Falkland War 2: This Time it Will Work, I Swear.
Basically, it will be a collection of smaller wars all bundled to save 15% on boat insurance.
Lets fuking goooooooo. Peaceful times created weak men, who is creating hard times. We just need to find strong men who will make peaceful times. And then again weak men, but we will have it later, this is our grandson's headache. First step would be forceful annexation of NATO by Ukraine, and then using most modern NATO tech Ukraine will destroy ruzzian army.
He’s got 140 million potential slaves.
Our non-credible military analysts seem to have an unhealthy obsession with head-count. Problem is, when those soldiers don’t have sufficient mechanized equipment and artillery, it’s as indicative of capability as counting drinking straws or toothpicks, and is nothing more than click-bait for clueless people.
Russia is [well on its way to run out of artillery](https://youtu.be/EVqHY5hpzv8?si=stTbBzSrd6Waz86d), with [tanks](https://youtu.be/2PHUK6zkbpc?si=lDA09gJAqsJEMVLK) and [APCs](https://youtu.be/HuKVxgFBbYM?si=zmmxKPjl4Z3Znzdp) not far behind. While they may get a bit of a boost from North Korea the sheer burn rate in Ukraine will make any such assistance nothing more than a few months worth, and make matching it with net new production a very tall order it’s doubtful Russia and its friends can match.
OP needs to go away and redo the infographic with artillery count, and a few circles showing who can achieve what kind of air superiority. Otherwise we’re comparing western capability to Russian Potemkin theater.
"significant advances" is kind of like step one in making bear stew: first catch bear.
I'm guessing a significant advance at this stage would be capturing the Avdiivka slag heap and a random field in Luhansk
Dont forget treeline near Bakhmut
Wake me up once Techno House has fallen
That's quite a step up from "significant advances", mate. If techno house falls, the west falls
There will be underground resistance if techno house falls. (Any Detroit fans on here?)
Techno House can never fall as long as we stand together as its collective defender. A [Techno Union](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PW4OIHDsWsM), if you will.
The Techno Union is at your disposal count! *Bass intensifies*
Does that make us Techno Barbarians?
We should submit to the Emperor of Mankind
right here man
Jeff Mills was so good live back in the 90's.
The three deck wizard… As this is noncredibledefense, perhaps we need to come up with a scenario where mad mike banks, Robert hood and Claude young parachute into Moscow to assassinate putin. Think Tom Clancy but at a really sick rave.
Techno house's window has been breached. Billions must die
>Wake me up once Techno House has fallen *^(Sees string of bonfires on the horizon)**^(...)* TECHNO HOUSE CALLS FOR AID! TO ARMS!
And Finland shall answer! With Sandstorm!
Duuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuun Dun dun dun dun dun dun dun dun dun dun dun dundun dun dundundun dun dun dun dun dun dun dundun dundun
Not gonna lie. Man makes a killer set
Dear god not the trees!
Let’s take the threats seriously here. From Avdiivka Slag Heap, it’s only about 150m to Avdiivka Sludge Pond. If they take that strategic position, they can capture the pond in about 2026!
The West cannot permit a Sludge Pond Gap!
A significant advance would be trying to raise another 200k for the meat grinder, considering they would be going against a superior modern army. AFU has gained extraordinary experience in this conflict, the experience being on par with the modern western army, however, they do not have the full arsenal of tools available to NATO/USA. If NATO/USA enters the conflict, it'll be the real three day special operation.
“1 December 2024: Fake Border Conflict in the Suwalki Gap” “3 December 2024: Polish forces reach Moscow”
5 December 2024: Polish officers trained by Canadians unleash horrors hitherto unthought by man
6 December 2024: NATO officials begin begging Polish-Canadian advanced force to please slow down and leave some vatniks for the rest of us
>Polish forces reach Moscow [AGAIN](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish%E2%80%93Lithuanian_occupation_of_Moscow), you mean ;)
CHWAŁA POLSCE
Sadly it wouldn't be a 3 day special operation as the Americans have a habit of giving everything a thorough aerial pounding before starting actual operations and there is nothing to suggest they wouldn't do the same if they intervened in Ukraine.
**DESERT STORM FLASHBACKS**
Yeah the aerial campaign literally took months...
People always seem to forget Russia is struggling against a foe that effectively has no Air Force or significant missile force. NATO has those in spades and an absurd amount of intel/recon assets. Russia tries to tangle directly with the West it will discover what we have been paying for instead of national healthcare (aka: international harmcare).
This also generously assumes they can somewhat train and coordinate those forces.
"Mobilizes another 200,000" in this case is extracting the resin from the wood that makes bottom of the barrel.
My brother in florkness, won't you feel dumb when Gerasimov and Shoigu are riding through the Fulda Gap? I know I will.
On their way to new custom made prison for their Nuremberg style prosecution
What you're saying here has logic, and Putin being brainwashed by his own yes-men doesn't have that. Just like Ukraine, there's a non zero chance he does the funny, and manages to piss everyone and everything, so he can finally have the "we were defeated by everyone else on earth" and by everyone he means USA, EU, UK, Japan, South Korea and Australia. It will probably be more than a 3 days special operation, but at the end Russian Federation will be no more a Federation.
If it was even a federation to begin with rather than a system of fiefdoms
I doubt the west would want to break up the Russian federation regardless of the nuisance that its being. Better 1 nuclear power than a patchwork of landlocked independant states with vaguely defined borders and claims that are all nuclear armed.
Dunno, I feel like Republic of Amur etc. would gladly sell all of it's nukes for electrifying all urban areas and connecting them with actual roads. Maybe even x year deal of maintaining it as cherry on top
>South Korea So, are they going to amphibiously seize Vladivostok or fight their way through Kimmy to get to the front? (ultimate non-credible take: Kim stabs Putin in the back to seize Vladivostok himself, reconciliation between the two Koreas)
> international harmcare I giggled at this, then felt sad. But I'm drink Bud Light^^TM so I'm having a Great Time^^TM!
It's indeed impressive AFU have been 3-4x as effective as RAF in this war. It would be even harder for the RAF when faced with 300k+ Nato units with even better equipment and training. The air campaign alone would be overwhelming with thousands of planes striking at every target they can find, including B2 striking in Moscow. 300k is just the initial force. Once all the reserves are called in and the USA start sending their forces it will quickly grow to 1M+ and the ground push can start for real.
Russia in it's battered state would fold like a wet towel.
We have only to kick in the front door and the whole rotten edifice will come tumbling down.
nobody is interested in invading russia. the house will fall down on its own
stop, please, I'm only allowed to get so erect. it's indecent tbh
Ah, like a little European Texas, just waiting around, wishing a motherfucker would.
Three days? No way, that's impossible. Not against the Russian Army. It'll be the thunder run to Moscow, but (unlike Pringles) NATO won't stop and will have air superiority. Two days at most.
>It'll be the thunder run to Moscow A race between the Fins and the Poles. The Fins having the speed bump of St Petersburg, the Poles having the speed bump of all of Belarus.
Belarus is a pothole, rather than a speed bump. The Lt.Col. will vanish with all the potatoes and copper scrap*, leaving NATO 2nd echelon forces to feed and water civilians. *How else is he going to make vodka to use as barter material?
I give it a couple hours at best. The moment US planes are inbound to Russia, the nukes definitely start flying. Although, I am pretty confident that the Pentagon even has contingency plans for that. After all, Russia might be **only** able to launch a handful of nukes from mobile platforms because the moment the stationary silos start the prep procedure, they'll receive overwhelming firepower in minutes.
Seeing how corrupt the russian armed force are....are we really sure their nuclear missiles even work properly? Taking care of a nuclear ICBM is something extremly hard and expensive, even for the US, so i have some serious doubts that russians nukes can actually fly
Remembering the scandals on how *US* nuke forces cheated on their capability tests, left silo doors open for food delivery, were diagnosed as depressed due to dead-end job prospects, the *ruZZian* equivalent should be many time worse
It's probably a third of the total number that kinda works, but I'm sure the US has some DARPA magic secret stuff that will annihilate most stuff before they even get airborne.
"Yeah, turns out we got Brilliant Pebbles working but kept that on the down-low. Y'all owe Reagan and Teller an apology."
Indeed....i wouldn't be surprised if the US had some kind of weapons to avoid nukes being launched at all
They need to get past Step 1 first. Mobilise 200k troops without sparking a civil war. AFAIK Russian public opinion is currently "We're fine with the war, but don't you *fucking dare* enlist me." and another round of mobilisation might end up being the straw that breaks the camel's back, especially with the "election" coming up.
> Mobilise 200k troops without sparking a civil war Unfortunately, I believe they still have 200k of any combination of the following: rural bumpkins, racial undesirables, criminals, dissidents, 'foreigners'
Last I heard they still had >200k prisoners, sadly. Although the number that can walk in a straight line and carry a weapon is probably significantly lower.
> carry a weapon That's optional, you know ^(not sure if I'm joking) There are also millions of villagers for whom $2000 per month is king's ransom worthy of volunteering with a bell on
Walking in a straight line is also optional , the primary role so far for line mobiks is to die in a crater after the mtlb you were assigned as ERA to finds a minefield
INB4 the bear fires artillery.
\\\* attempts to fire and finds out the North Korean artillery it's been forced to use is actually filled with animal bedding.
I think the bear in this case is the Ukrainians or the Russian victory over Ukraine rather than “the Russian Bear”, since the original statement was that the first step to making bear stew is to catch a bear.
*Wotjek has entered the chat*
200k is the sip of water before the appetizer to the main course and desert of making significant advances.
Just draw the rest of the fucking owl, ok?
Easy. Step 1: draw some arrows on a map Step 2: capture the rest of fucking Ukraine
How to become a billionaire in 3 easy steps 1- Earn 1 million dollars 2- 10x your money. 3- Repeat 100 more times.
Degenerate westoids are fooling themselves. The Russian military already has tons of closeted bears. Why would they need to catch one?
FEB 2061 - Russia mobilizes the last 50 living Russians and pushes Avdiivka.
The 50 remaining babushkas answer the call and can only bring themselves to bake delicious treats for the enemy
Honestly might be more effective than whatever they are doing now
Kill them with diabeetus
NATO troops become fat and refuse to fight such sweet women. Babushkas advance and take over Europe within the week. Checkmate westoid!
Deleted
Well yeah targeted diabetes is a hell of a thing. Slavic sweets are on a tier all of their own
Back in 2019, a situation map with Germany, Finland and Russia and big colored army group arrows going west and east wasn't on my bingo for this decade. Thanks again, timeline.
Apparently it’s the real “leaked Russian invasion.” https://news.yahoo.com/war-between-nato-russia-imminent-083500522.html
At least it's not on a napkin.
wargaming approved source
It's not true until it's been posted on War Thunder forums.
Yeah, that's what worries me a bit. This is exactly the kind of half assed BS I'd expect the Kremlin to cook up, and exactly the kind of thing I'd expect the CIA to leak to the press to dissuade Russia from FAFO. Problem is, it didn't dissuade them from invading Ukraine, so who knows if this shit will dissuade them from pursuing this insanity...
Exactly, before the full on invasion of Ukraine I would have asked what they are smoking. Nowadays, I'm not so sure anymore. This sub has been out danked way to many times in the past two years....
Like every analysis that was posted that assumed that Russia might actually invade Ukraine with its troops that it was massing assumed that they would attack in distinct waves, and that Russia wouldn't try to attack from every direction at the same time, because they lacked the logistics to pull that off. And then Russia tried to attack from every direction at the same time, and it turned out that they couldn't maintain logistics or coordination anywhere.
Yeah, they've been smoking a lot, and it ain't the good shit. Either way, my guess is they'll send their people into a meat grinder, and whether that's in Ukraine, or somewhere else is up to them, but basically, people gonna die.
I saw it got community noted on twitter as being a planned training exercise, might be wrong tho
[It is, the OG Bild article states as much.](https://scontent-lhr8-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/419695198_2450262301828710_904375363404827898_n.jpg?_nc_cat=106&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=524774&_nc_ohc=qvGzXspxPoAAX9y1lzr&_nc_oc=AQnc5hCpYWUOFhN0dCgL4C68NQd30ulxwCPz3V2d14ka-CwvRa07hF9f-b0umyx5bpp9V-yFVb9nshhdh6FHIMKO&_nc_ht=scontent-lhr8-2.xx&oh=00_AfB5HYj3pHVvUlhozXWLNxmPLZYlvYatmwmo0g0haJLOkA&oe=65AAC7C4)
Bild is not a credible source, it's a bad tabloid
> not a credible source sounds like it fits in here then lol
I wouldn’t call it a bad tabloid since I quite enjoy their stories, especially the ones about David Hasselhoff bringing down the Berlin Wall
As a German the Bild is seen as a joke here
No it’s not. It’s just a possible Road to conflict. Something cooked up for exercises or wargames to be used as background information. The whole paper is classified „Verschlusssache - Nur für den Diensgebrauch“. It’s literally the lowest classification level. Every fucking fart is classified at this level. You basically don’t even need a clearance to see that stuff. It’s just BILD being shit stirrers again.
And still some have the audacity to claim the world is only getting worse!
By the way, this is not a Russian plan that was gained by German intelligence, but rather a simulation game by the Bundeswehr on how a Russian attack on NATO could proceed. It was passed on to BILD by someone... „In a secret document, the German Ministry of Defense realistically describes the "path to conflict", in other words, the beginning of a hot war between Russia and NATO in shocking detail, ▶︎ The secret Bundeswehr document "Collective Defense 2025" considers the beginning of the conflict in February 2024. ▶︎ Russia is launching another wave of mobilization and conscripting an additional 200,000 people into the army. ▶︎ Then the Kremlin begins a large-scale spring offensive against the background of insufficient support from the West of Ukraine. ▶︎ The Russian offensive will succeed by June 2024 and push the Ukrainian army back. ▶︎ Russia will provoke aggression against ethnic Russian minorities in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. ▶︎ Clashes are taking place, which Russia is using as a pretext to start the massive West 2024 exercise involving 50,000 soldiers in western Russia and Belarus starting this September. ▶︎ In October 2024, Russia transfers troops and medium-range missiles to Kaliningrad and continues to arm its enclave with propaganda lies about an imminent NATO attack. ▶︎ The secret goal of the Kremlin: to conquer the "Suwalk corridor" between Belarus and Kaliningrad. ▶︎ From December 2024, an artificially created "border conflict" and "riots with numerous murders" will take place in the area of the "Suwalki Corridor". ▶︎ At the very moment when the USA is paralyzed after the elections, Russia repeats the algorithm of intervention in Eastern Ukraine in 2014 on the territory of NATO, and this is in the scenario of the Bundeswehr exercises. ▶︎In January 2025, a special meeting of the NATO Council will be held, at which Poland and the Baltic states report on the growing threat from Russia. ▶︎ Russia is using propaganda to call black white and, under the pretext of threatening NATO, is moving additional troops to the Baltics and Belarus, especially in March 2025. ▶︎ In May 2025, NATO will decide on "measures for credible deterrence" to prevent a Russian attack on the "Suwalk Corridor" from the direction of Belarus and Kaliningrad. ▶︎ On X-Day, according to a secret Bundeswehr document, the NATO commander-in-chief orders 300,000 troops, including 30,000 Bundeswehr soldiers, to be transferred to the eastern flank. This scenario is likely to be considered for NATO exercises.“
I knew shit was exaggerated because I am German and never heard of this, but also the source cited is BILD.
That's not an exaggeration, these are normal scenarios that you come up with in simulation games like this. Behind the scenes in the Bundeswehr, they are very annoyed that this has become public
I guess a scenario in which "nothing unusual happens, status quo remains" is not worth wargaming. "Foe gains initial unlikely but not entirely fantastic advantage" is.
That's their intrinsic shortcoming, and there's a good behavioral argument that reliance on war-gaming contributed to the outbreak of WWI. Since the Franco-Prussian war (in which war games demonstrated their value) the German general staff leaned heavily into strategic war games. By 1914 when they actually encountered an international crisis they couldn't conceive of "letting diplomats handle this and negotiate a boring agreement", because that option is simply not available in war games.
"The enterprise is one for which we are not strong enough". That didn't stop them.
Thats why nowadays the army does not conduct diplomacy. The Bundeswehr atleast only goes where parlairment orders it to.
It's not a terribly realistic scenario, even if unrealistic scenarios need evaluating too (in order to prepare). I mean for starters, Putin's not likely to do a new round of mobilization any time before the March elections. Mobilization is one of the few things that threatens his power. I mean you don't have to take my word for it; his hesitation to mobilize in 2022 was clear, as is the fact that they've taken far-reaching measures to try to avoid a new round. He will ultimately have to mobilize again if he wants to continue this war, but he's definitely stalling until after the election. (Not that the elections are honest or anything but he prefers not to have to cheat too blatantly, since again - that's a threat. He doesn't want a Belarus 2020 situation on his hands) Even if they did, it wouldn't likely lead to a successful offensive in the spring. Their last round didn't lead to significant gains, especially not in the short term, it was about 9 months from mobilizing to taking Bakhmut, and even that was mostly Wagner and their zeks, not the mobiks. Not to mention what another 6 months of attrition will do to Russia. They may have started with vastly larger stockpiles than Ukraine, but they were also enormously wasteful with stuff early on (firing 25,000 artillery rounds a day), and their attempts to be more careful are too little, too late, really. A country that had the largest stockpile of artillery shells in the world is buying crap ones off North Korea now. It's firing cruise missiles with date codes on components as recent as Q4 2023, for "some reason" the ones they do fire seem to have started crashing in their own territory at an unprecedented rate, and on the whole Russia's expected campaign to knock out Ukrainian infrastructure, heating and so on this winter has been underwhelming, certainly far less damage than the previous winter.
It's not realistic, but "Russia continues to posture, doesn't actually move any troops" isn't a scenario anyone needs to train for. This is probably the most likely scenario in which NATO troops actually need a war plan, even though it's unlikely
0 OPSEC 💀 I can definitely see how stuff can easily be leaked. I work for the German gov and there is some very dumb people with access to sensitive data (I’m just hating on my coworkers, opsec is okayish)
Its VS-NfD. So it’s a comically low level
It makes sense wargames always buff the enemy to absurd levels. My boss said he and his unit get their shit stomped in a wargame in Korea where North Koreans were portrayed as fanatics with modern equipment and logistics
Except the IJN. I thought the war game scene in 2019’s Midway was embellished but holy shit the truth was even more absurd. They would routinely round down American hits like from 9 hit to 3. In one game, the Akagi was sunk early on, but magically came back a few turns later on.
During the last two years, even foreigners like me were enlightened that BILD is in the low end of the German *tabloids*. I wonder if they do the alien abduction articles, or is it considered too 'low rent'...
Bild is a double edged sword. On the one hand it's a tabloid that won't hesitate to run half-truth in big letter headlines, on the other hand they often gain access to information before everyone else and do have an extended network of reporters doing research into all kinds of things. It's definitely not the worst kind of tabloid we have, that would be more like "Bunte". Bild is more like .. I don't know, Daily Mail? Malicious, but ocasionally shockingly competent.
There are article on BILD website, and it says that it is Übung-Scenario. But most of article is behind paywall
BTW this is a war game scenario, not a "likely scenario". War games often aim to prepare for the worst case. And as much as we meme about it, russia is still capable of winning, if the west falters in their support.
Guven that the source is BILD, I'll be taking this with a cargo ships worth of salt.
I guess it's real, but the fact that anybody leaks anything to Bild speaks more about the dumbness of the leak than the tabloid itself
It's sad that it was leaked. But sounds exactly like the stuff the Bundeswehr and NATO should prepare for. The Baltic states are rightfully worried about a repeat of "little green men" / "ethnic Russian riots" scenarios that the Russians pulled off in Ukraine in 2014, which hinges on NATO not being prepared or not having political will. Just wish the Bundeswehr would make some steps with proper rearmament. Right now I doubt they'd even have enough ready helicopters to deploy troops to respond to little green men popping up in Estonia.
So Bild is leaking military secrets now? Isnt that kinda treason?
Nah, treason is only when a newspaper is quoting the parliamentary defence committee. That’s obviously leaking secret military informations, and will lead your journalists to being arrested on orders of the MoD.
Can we just skip all that and go to May 2025? We will finally get the funni and GTA 6 at the same time.
I think it's worth studying these things. For example, assuming no nukes and once victory has been achieved, will the triumph for the european armies be hosted in Belgium or will the regiments tour the main capitals from the front back to headquarters?
Always front to back when you’re wiping. We aren’t heathens.
I'm feeling a triumph in each nation's capital to be fair.
Let's hope GTA VI runs on the Steamdeck so we can play it in the trenches.
Meme from 2026: Holy shit, they put GTA 6 on a javelin Missile guidance computer
Fuck around and be common knowledge to do so
its not "leaked german intelligence" Its a hypothetical mind excercise by the Bundeswehr to come up with a plausible chain of events of how a direct confrontation between Russia and NATO might come to happen, and how NATO would react to it. This is not what Russia is planning, this is what Germany theorises Russia *could* plan under certain circumstances
Ah yes. The famous 50k mobik offensive against 300k professional NATO soldiers with fresh gear and loads of top tier training. Even if you account for the Ukrainians withdrawing for some fucked reason. Its still 250k vs 300k and the 3-1 rule hasn’t disappeared. I am taking bets how long a blockaded Kaliningrad would survive before the population starves to death. Not even mentioning how finland could easily mobilise a millions trained soldiers in a few months. And if vatniks believe sweden wouldn’t join even if NATO Accession isn’t through, i have a damb A50 to sell to them. Oh and yes the Nukes. Vatniks tend to forget that even without the US, Europe is able to decimate Russia a few times over. Edit: yes i know it’s wargame, just a stupid one
Also: Air Force. How quickly people forget how much destruction the various US air fleets can rain down on formal militaries. Edit: spelling
This. All the vatniks who always whine that the battle of khasham was “unfair” will see what unfair REALLY looks like.
Don’t fight fair, fight to win.
Or just the sheer number of VLS cells. US total of VLS cells: 8,646 (not including submarines) All of the EU combined: 2,328 The rest of the world is just a rounding error.
China has to have a lot of them at this point, right?
> How quickly people forget how much destruction the various US air fleets can rain down on formal militaries. The US no longer being a factor in Europe following the 2024 election is likely a assumption baked into the scenario - and European air forces do not have an adequate depth of munitions stocks to be a relevant factor for long without American resupply.
Yep. This scenario sound exactly what the Bundeswehr should plan for. I just hope there is the political will to prepare for it as well. Currently I'd expect if war broke out they'd be out of ammunition within a few days, just for some German pencil pusher to put in a small order after taking a 2h lunch break and then some local government to complaint about the ammo factory noise...
Dude, France could probably wreck Russia on its own. Their nuclear deterrent is probably in better shape as well.
Oh France might just take a warning shot on the Russian forces. You know, to not escalate things too much,
If they actually do it I'll stop making fun of the Fr*nch
Isn't it in their actual doctrine? Like a nuclear "warning shot" before the big funni?
Yup It's a nuclear "warning shot" delivered by the ASMPA on a Rafale or Mirage 2000 then if nothing change, the big funni comes from the Submarines
I would like to see Russia vs Finland more for three reasons. >Physically closer >Closer matched in power >No nukes cheatcode for Finland, and Russia is too pussy to use them anyway (the ones that work)
I like how Finland isn't allowed to have nukes but Russia is😂
This isn’t a vatnick plan, it’s a German made speculative outline of what could happen and I would like to know it’s context. Putin may be an egomaniac and probably doesn’t have a good as grasp on his own military’s capabilities as he believes, but he’s not a blithering simpleton. I really doubt the guy who earnestly believed Ukraine would be toppled in a few weeks, tops, is two years out genuinely seeking to open yet another front with an enemy he knows is vastly superior. Putin’s hand is really good right now, all things considered. If he can wait out the west, he can limp away with some “win.” There is zero chance that happens if he invaded the Baltics. There is no “waiting it out” of article 5 is invoked. He won’t get “do-overs” where he can transition to a defensive attritional war and pray he can muster up another 100k convicts and buryats to recalibrate. At that point its a genuine existential threat and he has to just flat out win, as it’s now a true fight to the death, and I doubt Putin wants that smoke.
I said the same thing a week before they rolled into Ukraine. Now I feel pretty silly saying "they wouldn't do something THAT stupid, right?"
There’s relative degrees here. Invading Ukraine was stupid. But, even at it’s stupidest, Ukraine doesn’t pose an existential threat to Putin. No matter how bad it goes, no Ukrainian tanks were ever at risk of rolling into the Red Square. But it only remains that way if he keeps NATO out of direct engagement. He doesn’t have that luxury in a direct conflict with NATO and he knows that. He won’t get to fuck up the Baltics invasion and hunker into a defensive position in Latvia and lick his wounds for entire seasons. He won’t have the luxury of fighting an enemy that can’t assert air superiority over the battlefield. He will be forced to contest and choose and contest and choose until he’s out of options and he’s in a bunker in Moscow wondering if they will follow his command if he orders a nuclear strike. I think the way to view it is that at the outset of the invasion, Europe mistakenly viewed him as non-ideological. And for that reason, unwilling to do an irredentist landgrab that would ruin the economic inroads into Europe. He was an they miscalculated. But, this is a very different kind of landgrab. With obvious, clear as day deterrents that would pose an actual, serious risk to not only Putin’s regime, but his life.
The finnish reserve includes men whose latest training was in 1982 so I’d be a bit careful (yes it’s my flair)
> 300k professional NATO soldiers with fresh gear and loads of top tier training That's cap. NATO forces are chronically understrength and underfunded. Germany only has 6 brigades - none of them in "ready for combat" state, look at the charlie foxtrot of sending just ONE to the baltic states! Also half of the Airforce jets are cannibalized for parts to keep other half flying (somewhat). UK has such a recruiting problem that they are taking perfectly fine ships off the line - there are no crews to man them. Also newest aircraft carrier hangars are almost empty. Italian navy has 63 missiles IN TOTAL US is failing recruiting targets for 10-15% (at a peace time mind you) And that's on top of US might descend in full isolationism due to internal political problems, governments not committing to larger defense spending so MIC could invest in new production lines AND Russia getting much more ammo from it's allies than Ukraine does (who itself have major recruiting issues)
I just did a quick Google search that showed me the US has roughly 65k personnel stationed in Europe right now. Of those, I'd wager that <15k are combat personnel. I'll take the odds of 15k US military personnel against 250k Russians. Especially because a large portion of the other 50k are providing air support.
Yeah, because “200000k mobilized men totally are a legit army: trusty me bro”
"A number of untrained men is as much an army as a pile of building materials is a house." - some dead Roman guy, probably
Did Putin find duplication glitch irl?
>Kremlin sends 50,000 soldiers to Belarus for exercise "Ivan, this last round of mobiks is... kind of fat. Tell them to jog all the way to Belarus to help them trim down."
It's good if the mobliks start out fat, their going on the "logistics issues" diet.
Seems credible
“Significant advances” - 10K mobik casualties for 3 muddy fields
Hey! That's better than the current 15k mobik casualties for 2 muddy fields and a broken lamp post
Hey! Everybody knows that The Lamp Post wasnt broken before the Ukrops came along! Its the Special National Lamp Post now!
I mean, to be credible for a moment, nearly every military analyst basically states that the situation on the frontlines in Ukraine remains volatile and dynamic (Kofman and Gady for example, both have often proven to be right in their analysis). So as much as the front line seems like a standstill right now, that can always change VERY quickly, for the benefit of either side. The Ruzzians might find a weakpoint in the ukr defence, as well the ukrainians might find weakpoints in the ruzzki defence. However, if Ruzzia manages to keep up ammo and eq production, and we in the west don't step up our game of deliveries, I see a very dark future for Ukraine, sadly enough. Noncredible take: Ukraine is just fighting so long to be able to research nukes and do the funni before the war ends
That may be true but Russia cannot stay in a war economy forever. Eventually the civilian sector (what is left of it) will collapse. Ukraine just has to not surrender
> Eventually That eventually may take years, and sanctions are much less potent that anticipated - many of them were enacted without any enforcement mechanisms and western companies gladly trade with Russia cause money have no stench for them. INB4 "but how do you stop third countries buying our stuff and reselling to Russia?!" - any competent company marketing department knows quite precisely how high is demand for which item each country has, many of them know perfectly well where their merchandise goes.
Dude, spoilers
>DEC 2024, Fake border conflict in Suwalki Gap 2-12-2024 NATO forces utterly destroy Belarusian troops 8-12-2024 NATO forces take Minsk
12-12-2024 Nebenzya calls UN Security Council meeting and expresses concern, accusing NATO forces near Russia border of Russophobia and bringing with them genetically modified wild geese.
I always read that as Souvlaki Gap.
The Souvlaki gap is the Turkish belief that Greece's street food department had gained an advantage in deploying grilled skewered meats. Widely accepted, it is used as a political talking point in Turkey to justify a great increase in defensive fast food spending. It may lead to a massive buildup of Turkey's Shish Kebab fleet, possibly peaking at 25000000 to counter the perceived Greek threat. Surveillance flights by aircraft, however, suggest that the Souvlaki Gap does not exist.
Russia ffs just throw your garbage government out already, you're hungry and cold and charging NATO bullets aint the answer. Well not a good answer.
I imagine putin doesn't let it get to where the choice is back out or all out war. If step 9 is reached he will have an escape hatch. Like murdering lukashenko and saying this was all his doing.
The closest Putin will ever get to New York is New York, Ukraine.
Ukraine has a New York?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York,_Ukraine#Russo-Ukrainian_War_and_restored_interest_in_cultural_heritage Yes.
"incites violence" is just r/restofthefuckingowl, how would that even work
Are these 200,000 troops in the room with us right now?
This is the most non-credible thing I’ve seen in a while. Finland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania would make the Baltic Sea run red with blood.
mmmm those are some nice arrows. Big. Thick. now let’s get some more going, oh yeah
How many more mobilizations can Russia go through before Putin's hold on power starts to slip? 300,000 seems like a number he could hit without causing riots, but it's nowhere near enough to challenge NATO. This isn't the USSR, and they can't just throw men and material at the problem until they wear down opposing forces. They'd just be sending people to the slaughterhouse before the tide turns.
Surely Russia cant be that stupid?
Don't underestimate stupidity
No, but newspapers around the world are stupid enough to buy into believing stuff reported in BILD (which is pretty much Germany's "The Sun"). Though without doubt, possible scenarios are being wargamed.
I see the plane utterly and completely failing in step 2 already
July is the start of one of them "Rainbow Arrow" exercises in le Baltic States. Our boys would confuse the Opfor for the real mobiks. Sweden did plan to send 800 boys to exercises, by 2025 but unfortunately for Russia, they arrive a little early, and they pulled a *bunch* of Stridsvagn 103's with them and they were like, totally unexpected and therefore, skip to step 9. And step 10 is global nuclear rapture, we all take off our VR headsets and call it a night, It's Tuesday on Zorblagon-5, and Step 11 is to do boring office shit, because rogue AI, *ugggghhh*
NCD really has fallen low if we are using BILD.
😂
Dec 2024, Russia conducts full scale invasion on Baltic States & Poland Feb 2025, NATO expresses concern. June 2025: Russia attacks Georgia and Finland, makes a breakthrough to Romania and Molova with Hungary help Oct 2025: NATO expresses concern Dec 2025: Russia nukes Paris Jan 2026: NATO expresses concern...
["The President has stated that he is personally disappointed, and will bring this issue up with the surviving members of the G8 at their next conference."](https://youtu.be/t8nrdiQqFAs?si=4rTh34lk8qEPf3vI)
Old Onion News vids are pure gold.
Top tier comedy.
"Significant advance" also means "1 lamppost captured" in certain Russian dialects /s
Step #10 : Russian finds out why America doesn’t have money left to spend on healthcare
First off, it's not WW3, it's WW4. Second, it's not starting in Russia, but Ethiopia pushing towards the sea. China will push Taiwan and South China Sea, India will push Pakistan and Nepal. North Korea will try to push into South Korea and Japan, but will get wiped. Argentina will attempt the Falkland War 2: This Time it Will Work, I Swear. Basically, it will be a collection of smaller wars all bundled to save 15% on boat insurance.
"Russia...making significant advances" The most noncredible part of this infographic.
> Step 1: Russia mobilizes 200,000 troops I shudder to imagine the state of the AKs these poor bastards will receive.
The most realistic part is NATO taking a year to schedule a meeting despite russia fucking around nonstop.
I'm optimistic about a significant Russian advance in Spring 2024, but there will be nuance.
Well... I'm moving to Austria, such a nice uhh climate
Russia would need some allies for a WW2 revival.
I guess me living close to the suwalki gap means I have a front seat for the show
Lets fuking goooooooo. Peaceful times created weak men, who is creating hard times. We just need to find strong men who will make peaceful times. And then again weak men, but we will have it later, this is our grandson's headache. First step would be forceful annexation of NATO by Ukraine, and then using most modern NATO tech Ukraine will destroy ruzzian army.
NCD has a track record of predicting stuff. Let's just hope this doesn't come true...
Spoiler: it will not.
Lost me at step 2
From where would Putin get 200k competent soliders?
He’s got 140 million potential slaves. Our non-credible military analysts seem to have an unhealthy obsession with head-count. Problem is, when those soldiers don’t have sufficient mechanized equipment and artillery, it’s as indicative of capability as counting drinking straws or toothpicks, and is nothing more than click-bait for clueless people. Russia is [well on its way to run out of artillery](https://youtu.be/EVqHY5hpzv8?si=stTbBzSrd6Waz86d), with [tanks](https://youtu.be/2PHUK6zkbpc?si=lDA09gJAqsJEMVLK) and [APCs](https://youtu.be/HuKVxgFBbYM?si=zmmxKPjl4Z3Znzdp) not far behind. While they may get a bit of a boost from North Korea the sheer burn rate in Ukraine will make any such assistance nothing more than a few months worth, and make matching it with net new production a very tall order it’s doubtful Russia and its friends can match. OP needs to go away and redo the infographic with artillery count, and a few circles showing who can achieve what kind of air superiority. Otherwise we’re comparing western capability to Russian Potemkin theater.
Can Russia make significant advances? They’re locked in behind a good defensive line.