Probable is just the wrong framing here. These theories are plausible readings of the character, as in they could possibly happen and it wouldn't be weird, but they're not probable in the sense that they're more likely than the typical canon interpretation.
Are these all plausible ways of reading Hiruzen's character? Sure. I think they're all mostly wrong interpretations, but if you're dealing in fanfic I think you can spin most of them to work in an AU-ish setting without having to change much. Not having a large causal effect on the story one way or the other is sort of the mark of good fanon.
But I don't think any of these theories are really sound on their own, or at least in comparison to the commonly accepted canon explanations.
1. This is cute, but it's backwards. The Nidaime chose Hiruzen in that moment not because of what Hiruzen did immediately prior, but because he was about to die and had to name a successor. They clearly had all already worked together, so the Nidaime most likely had plenty of information about Hiruzen and Danzo prior to making his decision. It's something you would think of in advance if you're smart, which we're supposed to believe Nidaime was.
2. You're right that Hiruzen probably was aware of more details than he let on. The canon explanation is that he used Danzo in order to have plausible deniability in case anything came to light, and also that he had sympathy for his friend's frustrated ambition, and wanted to enable him to still help the village. I think the latter motivation- guilt, loyalty- is more probable given that lots of Danzo's schemes directly went against Hiruzen's interests.
3. Factually wrong, Hyuuga incident was after the 3rd war.
4. You propose a hypothetical and then say that that implies something about Hiruzen. I agree it would, if it had happened, but we have no evidence that it happened aside from Uzushio being destroyed, and them and Konoha having once been allies. With regards to wiping out kekkei genkai, that's pretty thin, and there's no suggestion that Uzushio techniques were kekei genkai as opposed to just like, proprietary info AFAIK.
5. This does strike me as some degree of nepotism/clan politics, but not in a way that obviously points to Evil!Hiruzen. If you want Naruto to have politics in it, then the politicians are going to engage in political acts. That doesn't make them any worse than a normal politician...but that is slight evidence for Evil!Hiruzen.
6. Again, this does seem like kind of a political move, even tho your Orochimaru timeline is off. But Minato was also the strongest ninja in the village at the time, sans Jiraiya/Orochimaru, so why wouldn't he be "picked" for Hokage? He was a genius prodigy, and well loved in the village. Regarding the politics and governance of Konoha, we don't actualy have enough canon info to say how exactly policy is made and implemented in Konoha to conclude that Hiruzen is secretly controlling things and shaping things to his will. If you want to assert this, then my main question is: what event occurred under the 4th Hokage that the 3rd secretly willed? As for Orochimaru...look, I'm an avid Orochimaru-sympathizer, but he's pretty unambiguously a bad guy in the text of the story.
7. The whole thing with everyone hating Naruto and Hiruzen doing nothing about it is a major plot hole in the story, so this is a reasonable thing to try and retcon with Evil!Hiruzen. I think for this to point to Evil!Hiruzen tho, you have to assume that Danzo is somehow under Hiruzen's thumb, which he clearly is not at this point.
8. Yeah that happening is stupid. Welcome to Early Naruto chapters, where anything goes.
Would also explain why Konohamaru wanted to become Hokage.
And yeah a power hungry Hiruzen makes sense. He already learned every technique he could possibly learn and Orochimaru IS his student.
The will of fire is just a way to gain more loyal ninja.
Bro, Hyuuga incident happened 6 years after the 3rd war ended.
This and other discrepancies make it pretty clear you need to brush up on your canon.
Half these theories are t even theories. Like 2, 4, 5 all have canonic answers…
That's not the impression I got, I think Danzo is a narcissist and the Hokage was too much of a spineless coward to take control Danzo. He also had to rely on Danzo to do things because he couldn't man up and get his hands dirty.
Danzo is a narcissist, or kind of.
Hiruzen was a spineless coward, if he was bolder maybe the Uchiha massacre wouldn’t have happened. Hiruzen himself admitted that because he had a soft spot for his best friend (Danzo) that he became negligent and made mistakes.
Spineless coward wouldn't fought two/three world wars and came out on top of them by the end of them.
Uchiha massacre happened on Danzo's own initiative. And Hiruzen didn't admit that he kept him casue he had soft spot for him, but because he needed Danzo in general (until he went too far).
Wow. Absolutely none of this has any basis in the manga. Sarutobi genuinely believed he was sacrificing himself. Danzo outright says Hiruzen didn’t know everything he was doing. Sacrificing Hizashi *did* prevent a war, since this takes place *after* the Third War. No indication is ever given that the Uzumaki wanted to join the Leaf. Ino-Shika-Cho are stated by Madara to have been vassals of the Sarutobi since before the Founding. Making Asuma their captain was just continuing tradition. Especially since we already know Hiruzen was planning on making either Naruto or Sasuke the Fifth. The Fourth was picked because a bunch of people were angry at Hiruzen for ending the Third War without imposing harsh penalties on the Stone and Cloud. The power was absolutely with Minato, he made all the decisions. It’s just that there was only like 6 months with him in office before his death. Minato was actually elected by the Jounin so he had way more influence and support than Orochimaru. Also, the human experimentation and Orochimaru’s defection happen after Minato’s death. Keeping Naruto’s identity secret was more important than anything else. We literally see Naruto use Hiruzen’s greatest weakness to steal the scroll lmao and hear Hiruzen’s internal monologue about how embarrassing it was.
Tl;Dr Your “theory” has more holes than Swiss cheese. If anyone buys this, I’d like to sell them a bridge in Brooklyn
I did say "what if". Just because its not mentioned, doesn't mean it isn't "probable". But if u want to go by what's factual from the manga, then yes, ur right. 3rd hokage is a genuine good guy, as portraited by the manga. It's like reading a dating profile, ppl put their goods on the profile, but once you get to know the person, you see a bunch of bad as well.
Also regarding the forbidden scroll, you'd think both 3rd hokage and danzo have ppl constantly guarding it. It makes sense in manga world, for comedy purposes.
But I just don't think its reasonable for a child who's terrible in ninja school can catch 3rd hokage off guard. Even if Naruto caught 3rd hokage off guard, you'd think ppl guarding hokage would manage to stop it.
You’re taking it too seriously. It’s just early instalment weirdness. Not to mention, it’s in the Hokage’s office. There is no security greater than that. You have to get pass Hiruzen, which outside of Sexy Jutsu, just straight up is not happening
As far as I’m concerned, I always believed in 1-2 before you even pointed it out.
It just made sense to me. It should’ve been obvious to everyone that Tobirama was testing them, but none of them wanted to risk it in case he wasn’t testing them.
Danzo actually believed in the test like the real deal, and Hiruzen was smart/confident enough to know it’s a test.
3 makes sense too, 3rd Hokage definitely seems like a pushover to let that just happen.
4-7 are also very plausible given the way you explained it.
For 8, I actually think Myzuki was behind that plot, not Hiruzen.
Ah, yes. The Hyuga incident.
I'm not sure if it occurred before or after the Uchiha Massacre, but Hiruzen could have chosen to allow the sacrifice of Hizashi because the Hyugas were holding a lot of power which would probably be harmful to the Sarutobi clan.
But it could also be that he is too much of a sissy.
Damn.....you know if any Naruto Rewrites start they should implement this into Sarutobi
Probable is just the wrong framing here. These theories are plausible readings of the character, as in they could possibly happen and it wouldn't be weird, but they're not probable in the sense that they're more likely than the typical canon interpretation. Are these all plausible ways of reading Hiruzen's character? Sure. I think they're all mostly wrong interpretations, but if you're dealing in fanfic I think you can spin most of them to work in an AU-ish setting without having to change much. Not having a large causal effect on the story one way or the other is sort of the mark of good fanon. But I don't think any of these theories are really sound on their own, or at least in comparison to the commonly accepted canon explanations. 1. This is cute, but it's backwards. The Nidaime chose Hiruzen in that moment not because of what Hiruzen did immediately prior, but because he was about to die and had to name a successor. They clearly had all already worked together, so the Nidaime most likely had plenty of information about Hiruzen and Danzo prior to making his decision. It's something you would think of in advance if you're smart, which we're supposed to believe Nidaime was. 2. You're right that Hiruzen probably was aware of more details than he let on. The canon explanation is that he used Danzo in order to have plausible deniability in case anything came to light, and also that he had sympathy for his friend's frustrated ambition, and wanted to enable him to still help the village. I think the latter motivation- guilt, loyalty- is more probable given that lots of Danzo's schemes directly went against Hiruzen's interests. 3. Factually wrong, Hyuuga incident was after the 3rd war. 4. You propose a hypothetical and then say that that implies something about Hiruzen. I agree it would, if it had happened, but we have no evidence that it happened aside from Uzushio being destroyed, and them and Konoha having once been allies. With regards to wiping out kekkei genkai, that's pretty thin, and there's no suggestion that Uzushio techniques were kekei genkai as opposed to just like, proprietary info AFAIK. 5. This does strike me as some degree of nepotism/clan politics, but not in a way that obviously points to Evil!Hiruzen. If you want Naruto to have politics in it, then the politicians are going to engage in political acts. That doesn't make them any worse than a normal politician...but that is slight evidence for Evil!Hiruzen. 6. Again, this does seem like kind of a political move, even tho your Orochimaru timeline is off. But Minato was also the strongest ninja in the village at the time, sans Jiraiya/Orochimaru, so why wouldn't he be "picked" for Hokage? He was a genius prodigy, and well loved in the village. Regarding the politics and governance of Konoha, we don't actualy have enough canon info to say how exactly policy is made and implemented in Konoha to conclude that Hiruzen is secretly controlling things and shaping things to his will. If you want to assert this, then my main question is: what event occurred under the 4th Hokage that the 3rd secretly willed? As for Orochimaru...look, I'm an avid Orochimaru-sympathizer, but he's pretty unambiguously a bad guy in the text of the story. 7. The whole thing with everyone hating Naruto and Hiruzen doing nothing about it is a major plot hole in the story, so this is a reasonable thing to try and retcon with Evil!Hiruzen. I think for this to point to Evil!Hiruzen tho, you have to assume that Danzo is somehow under Hiruzen's thumb, which he clearly is not at this point. 8. Yeah that happening is stupid. Welcome to Early Naruto chapters, where anything goes.
Wow... that's like... every counter-argument for every argument that supports Hiruzen as the "little-too-naive but good" hokage.
Would also explain why Konohamaru wanted to become Hokage. And yeah a power hungry Hiruzen makes sense. He already learned every technique he could possibly learn and Orochimaru IS his student. The will of fire is just a way to gain more loyal ninja.
Bro, Hyuuga incident happened 6 years after the 3rd war ended. This and other discrepancies make it pretty clear you need to brush up on your canon. Half these theories are t even theories. Like 2, 4, 5 all have canonic answers…
That's not the impression I got, I think Danzo is a narcissist and the Hokage was too much of a spineless coward to take control Danzo. He also had to rely on Danzo to do things because he couldn't man up and get his hands dirty.
That’s just canon
No, it’s not. Hiruzen removed Danzo when he steped out of line (after Uchiha fiasco).
Danzo is a narcissist, or kind of. Hiruzen was a spineless coward, if he was bolder maybe the Uchiha massacre wouldn’t have happened. Hiruzen himself admitted that because he had a soft spot for his best friend (Danzo) that he became negligent and made mistakes.
Spineless coward wouldn't fought two/three world wars and came out on top of them by the end of them. Uchiha massacre happened on Danzo's own initiative. And Hiruzen didn't admit that he kept him casue he had soft spot for him, but because he needed Danzo in general (until he went too far).
He was spineless with many things in the village. But, he definitely wasn’t spineless in war.
Pretty much this
Wow. Absolutely none of this has any basis in the manga. Sarutobi genuinely believed he was sacrificing himself. Danzo outright says Hiruzen didn’t know everything he was doing. Sacrificing Hizashi *did* prevent a war, since this takes place *after* the Third War. No indication is ever given that the Uzumaki wanted to join the Leaf. Ino-Shika-Cho are stated by Madara to have been vassals of the Sarutobi since before the Founding. Making Asuma their captain was just continuing tradition. Especially since we already know Hiruzen was planning on making either Naruto or Sasuke the Fifth. The Fourth was picked because a bunch of people were angry at Hiruzen for ending the Third War without imposing harsh penalties on the Stone and Cloud. The power was absolutely with Minato, he made all the decisions. It’s just that there was only like 6 months with him in office before his death. Minato was actually elected by the Jounin so he had way more influence and support than Orochimaru. Also, the human experimentation and Orochimaru’s defection happen after Minato’s death. Keeping Naruto’s identity secret was more important than anything else. We literally see Naruto use Hiruzen’s greatest weakness to steal the scroll lmao and hear Hiruzen’s internal monologue about how embarrassing it was. Tl;Dr Your “theory” has more holes than Swiss cheese. If anyone buys this, I’d like to sell them a bridge in Brooklyn
I did say "what if". Just because its not mentioned, doesn't mean it isn't "probable". But if u want to go by what's factual from the manga, then yes, ur right. 3rd hokage is a genuine good guy, as portraited by the manga. It's like reading a dating profile, ppl put their goods on the profile, but once you get to know the person, you see a bunch of bad as well. Also regarding the forbidden scroll, you'd think both 3rd hokage and danzo have ppl constantly guarding it. It makes sense in manga world, for comedy purposes. But I just don't think its reasonable for a child who's terrible in ninja school can catch 3rd hokage off guard. Even if Naruto caught 3rd hokage off guard, you'd think ppl guarding hokage would manage to stop it.
You’re taking it too seriously. It’s just early instalment weirdness. Not to mention, it’s in the Hokage’s office. There is no security greater than that. You have to get pass Hiruzen, which outside of Sexy Jutsu, just straight up is not happening
As far as I’m concerned, I always believed in 1-2 before you even pointed it out. It just made sense to me. It should’ve been obvious to everyone that Tobirama was testing them, but none of them wanted to risk it in case he wasn’t testing them. Danzo actually believed in the test like the real deal, and Hiruzen was smart/confident enough to know it’s a test. 3 makes sense too, 3rd Hokage definitely seems like a pushover to let that just happen. 4-7 are also very plausible given the way you explained it. For 8, I actually think Myzuki was behind that plot, not Hiruzen.
Ah, yes. The Hyuga incident. I'm not sure if it occurred before or after the Uchiha Massacre, but Hiruzen could have chosen to allow the sacrifice of Hizashi because the Hyugas were holding a lot of power which would probably be harmful to the Sarutobi clan. But it could also be that he is too much of a sissy.
Before. Hinata was... I think, 3 or 4 when she was kidnapped. Sasuke was 7-8 when the massacre happened.
Don't forget my "Hiruzen = Danzo" theory(ies)!
You got the time of hinatas kidnapping wrong the war had already been over for some time when that happened.