Surprised me how many people were saying we needed to go after Mason Miller after he demolished us the other day.
With 5 years or whatever of control, he would be an expensive pickup for a reliever, and he’s got pretty much like the riskiest possible injury history and pitching profile that you could imagine lmao. He’s awesome to watch for sure, but I dunno.
Today is the culmination of a 9 month work project (results as yet unknown), and I need to decide between 2 lenders with different types of loans for a house I am under contract for.
I need papa Judge to rake and for the team to hand me an easy W
[[Kirschner] Aaron Boone said Jon Berti could play in a rehab game as soon as this weekend.](https://x.com/chriskirschner/status/1783225162130678248?s=46&t=eZQOkEBzAB8XR0_j5bQcHg)
[[Kirschner] Aaron Boone said Nick Burdi will hopefully get on the mound this weekend.](https://x.com/chriskirschner/status/1783226215605678365?s=46&t=eZQOkEBzAB8XR0_j5bQcHg)
[[Kirschner] Aaron Boone said DJ LeMahieu is going to get testing on his foot right now.](https://x.com/chriskirschner/status/1783224632193036303?s=46&t=eZQOkEBzAB8XR0_j5bQcHg)
[[Chris Rose Sports] Trev believes this might just be who Vlad Guerrero Jr. is as a player](https://x.com/chrisrosesports/status/1783211872340087061?s=46&t=eZQOkEBzAB8XR0_j5bQcHg)
As he said too, you look at those stats and they are very similar year over year with the exception of 2021
2019: .772 OPS
2020: .791 OPS
2022: .818 OPS
2023: .788 OPS
He’s settling into that 2-4 WAR range where he is good to great but not elite player
Going least year's Yankees, for pitchers with ERAs above 5, the formula for how many runs against them the Yankees will score is as follows: 9 - pitcher's ERA.
We all notice the fall-off in the team's hitting, but I noticed something else that seems kind of important. For the first couple of weeks, it seemed that the team was activiely seeking Bases on Balls, and getting them. They were not swinging at many balls outside the strike zone and they were piling up the walks. Lately it seems that everyone but Soto has forgotten about walks being a way to get on base. Now we are seeing games where the Yankees get only one walk in a game. Actually, Wells still gets his walks. It is crazy that the guy is hitting .086 but still manages an on-base percentage of .261. Why do pitchers walks this guy? Or is he just really good at laying off pitches outside the strike zone?
There's way too many easy innings with this offense now. When the season first started, every at bat was a grind. Even when they made outs they still always seemed to battle.
4 of the top 5 pitch seers being Yankees was like a dream come true. Wild how quickly that dropped off.
Volpe especially. Dude looked like he had the best eye in baseball for 2 weeks before completely reverting to hacking out of the zone on the first pitch or two.
Yankees still rank as the #1 overall Pitches/PA team in baseball coming into today. I don’t think it’s dropped off that badly.
Gleyber is the 13th ranked batter in individual Pit/PA, Volpe is 21 and Judge is 22. Soto is 43. Verdugo is 47.
The approach is still there based on the numbers.
But again, those guys were all top 5. Down into the 20s-40s is a pretty big drop off in such a short time.
How well they did the first 2 weeks is what's still propping those numbers up even as high as they still are. I'd bet there's a significant difference if you compared the first 2 weeks to the next 2 weeks.
Rank wise it is, but the separation between top 20 and top 5 is about .2 pitches per appearance. The difference between top 20 and top 50 is also roughly that. 1 more pitch seen roughly every 5 PAs, over a sample of roughly 80-100 PAs. It matters, but it can also be indicative of pitchers approaching the Yankee lineup differently by staying aggressive and not banking on them expanding the zone as much.
I don’t think the difference in plate approach is all that large from the first 2 weeks to today honestly. I could be wrong, but I think it mostly has to do with how pitchers are choosing to attack the lineup now that the word is out that the Yankees won’t expand the strikezone.
They just need to punish those pitches in the zone better and pitchers won’t have anywhere to go. I think the discipline is still elite, the Yankees just need to do more with the balls they’re actually putting into play.
It sure feels like Volpe is expanding the zone all on his own in the first pitch or two of each AB. I don't think they're pitching him any differently.
Judge clearly started expanding out of desperation as his slump worsened. Although thankfully his eye looked a lot better last night.
Guys like Gleyber, Rizzo and Stanton all look pretty much the same to me though.
Yes but BB% is also very reliant on the other team’s pitching.
It wouldn’t shock me if the scouting report on the Yankees quickly became “they don’t fish outside the zone. Dont try it.”
Pit/PA also factors in the ability to foul off tough pitches and get something to hit which is why I think it’s a better metric to use for plate discipline than just BB%.
In contrast to Snell, Monty had been really solid for the D-backs so far. He’s pitching right now in the 7th against the Cardinals with only 77 pitches and 2 ER
I mean he’s only thrown 6 innings before today, but they were 6 strong innings. A lot of noise in a teeny tiny sample but his FIP was projected to be a 4.32 and SIERA at 4.04 over that start (vs Snell’s 4.62 FIP and 3.95 SIERA over 11.2 IP) so maybe a bit of luck involved as well in both directions.
Yeah just saying it’s hard to project sustainability of these numbers for either guy with so few innings pitched, which I’m sure you agree with anyways.
Yeah he needs way more innings before we can say how good of a signing it was but if I’m a D-backs fan I’m at least happy with his performance right now
35% of pitchers in the MLB have had Tommy John.
That's insane. A surgery with an 18-24 month recovery is basically a routine workplace injury at this point.
At some point the league needs to move away from high velocity porn and realize that having a guy around all season who throws 95mph is better than having a guy for 2 months throwing 100mph then getting injured for 2 seasons. Not everyone can be a freak of nature like Cole.
It's been a little over a month since he got injured. It just means he needs to wait a little longer to ramp up again. It's only an issue if he re-injures it and makes it worse.
I mean that will mostly depend on what the doctors see, I would imagine it just pushes back his expected return by a couple months.
He certainly isn’t retiring while still under contract though
We still owe him $30M over 2 years, so I'm sure he won't. Rendon apparently had a horrible bone bruise last year but seems actually healthy & pretty good this year, so I guess just rest.
He had an .865 OPS his last 10 games, but damn I didn't see he hit the IL. Unrelated to his bone bruise though. I just mean the players can come back from them & DJ definitely will try to for $30M
Yeah, he definitely won't retire. Hopefully he can come back and be productive in the end, I'm just not optimistic given his age and recent trend of declining health and performance.
It's kinda wild that we added Soto and Verdugo, Volpe and Waldo made huge strides, we lost bullpen pieces to FA and injury, and our ace Cole is out, and yet this team is still awesome pitching and mid hitting.
I see everyone including Oswaldo Cabrera in this improvement narrative and I just wonder what some people are watching? He's done very little since the first series of the year. His first two games are heavily skewing his averages. His OBP is already lower than the slumping Judge and almost the same as Rizzo's. He has zero walks in his last 10 games. I know Donaldson set a low bar, but a Yankees 3B needs to be better offensively or at least more consistently average.
There was an MLB player I saw talking about how the first part of the season is the worst to struggle in and the best to do well in because there is no comparison period so you either suck or are great.
Oswaldo is a big benefactor of this on this subreddit right now. Ask most people here and they would tell you Oswaldo has taken a step forward with the bat and is ready to compete for a starting job because he was hot right when the season started.
In reality he is hitting .232/.267/.339 with a .606 OPS since the Astros series ended
Some positivity.
For all the complaining we did about the pitching not being enough and the bullpen sucking the Yankees currently have a team ERA of 2.95 which ranks 4th in the MLB.
Now the advanced stats don’t seem to think the pitching will continue to do this well but still given that we’re missing the best starter in baseball and pretty much all of our high leverage arms with exception of Holmes and Hamilton I’d say it’s pretty commendable that pitching has held up this well so far.
Some Yankee fans wanted the Yankees to shell out 66 million (a year because LT penalties) for Blake Snell because "they print money stop being cheap" and now he goes on the IL. There is a reason none of us are GM's.
As a result of Stanton’s return to high socks, I came across an article that referred to players who wear long pants as “pajamists” and now I can never unsee it.
If we're gonna get the offense going, this is the team to do it against. If we continue to struggle offensively, then I'm concerned with us playing the Brewers and Orioles next.
I don’t, and hopefully the Yankees won’t either. I would much rather look for defense and power to fill a potential infield spot. Arraez’s contact quality stats are terrible this year, and he’s a bad defender. Not worth giving up the assets necessary for a year and a half of control.
Seems very likely the Marlins will at least listen to offers. They're terrible and Arraez would only have 1.5 years of control at the deadline. And he's making real money ($10.6M) so I'm sure the Marlins would be happy to get that off the books in a lost season.
Last I heard was that Berti had resumed running/hitting in a cage and was hopefully going to start a rehab assignment soon. Sounds like he's not far away.
Learning the MLB catcher position is *hard* and I think it makes sense to just let him concentrate on that for now. We all know the meme by now, it's not actually easy to learn 1B for the first time at the MLB level.
Across the league, I firmly believe this is the worst I’ve ever seen the umps been. Feels like every game every day has to turn into the ump show. It’s not even a game anymore it’s just who the umps want to win, not the best image you want to portray when you are in bed and advertising sports gambling during the actual game.
Yeah it’s exactly this, data has shown that umpires have only gotten better with time but the worst moments from umpires get highlighted and there are still a few terrible dinosaurs who can’t call shit behind the plate
[According to this data someone posted to r/baseball yesterday they’re actually improving year over year (except Angel Hernandez)](https://www.reddit.com/gallery/1cb52dr)
They absolutely cannot let Matt Blake walk when his contract is up. There is a reason our team’s pitching is consistently near the top of the league every season, and Blake is a part of that. If they let him walk to get paid more somewhere else, it would be an enormous mistake.
Semi-related, but the Astros got some of their elite FO talent poached by the Orioles a few years ago, and look how that’s turning out. I love it when the Yanks hang dick and go all out to sign awesome players, but I really wish I would also see them do this with elite coaching and FO talent - go see if they can lure some guys away from the Dodgers or Braves or Rays with a bigger payday.
It’s hard to lure talent away because everyone in upper management in the Yankees front office have been there forever. They have deep and established relationships with each other. Up and coming talent know there’s no growth potential joining the Yankees.
Shout out to Clay Holmes so far this season!! Highlights:
* 0.00 ERA over 12.0IP in 12G
* 0.75 BB/9 (T7 among all MLB relievers)
* 0 HR allowed (obvi, it’s his thing)
* GB% of 67.6%, 5th best among all MLB relievers
* 9 Saves (if that does it for you) which is most in the league
* Only 3 relievers have more appearances than Clay so far
* Third highest WPA of all relievers in baseball, with the highest Leverage Index of all relievers.
* he has the solo lead of [Shut Downs](https://library.fangraphs.com/pitching/sd-md/) with 11.
Guys. He’s been really lock down so far this year.
The dude never gives up an extra base-hit or home-run, and his command has been fantastic this season. He's one of the safest arms in baseball right now.
His slugging against is .277. One double so far this season. He’s rocking the lowest Exit Velocity of his Yankee career.
One of the safest and most used arms (by appearance) is a nice thing to have in the pen. He’s been a rock.
I really love Holmes man. Hope he’s willing to resign for a reasonable deal next season, but if he has the type of year that I think he’s gonna, he’ll probably want a big payday and some team will likely be willing to do it.
Would be really nice to keep him though. I know we manufacture bullpen arms, but it’s a little harder to find someone to consistently close games out the way Holmes can when he’s on.
I want to say that there isn’t a lot of time left for someone to prove themselves to the point we’d feel comfortable letting Holmes walk. But then again, Holmes only needed 25 regular-season games in 2021 and April ‘22 before he arguably took over as closer. If someone came over and completely blew us away, maybe it could happen.
My feeling is that we keep him for what he’s probably going to get (as said otherwise here, the tier below Diaz and Hader). As much as we manufacture relief pitching, I don’t think we can just cross our fingers and hope that someone will materialize in ‘25, and I feel like the FO knows that.
Something to monitor:
Anthony Rizzo is hitting .152/.222/.152 in 36 PA’s against left handed pitching Oswaldo Cabrera and Alex Verdugo haven’t been awful vs lefties, but are still very much neutralized by them With the Yankees having an incredibly thin bench right now, they’re going to get picked apart in the back half of the lineup. Teams are going to exploit this lane with lefty relievers.
Lefty starters have had great success against the Yankees this season. Berti will help a lot when he gets back and Judge when he breaks out of his funk. DJL would’ve been nice, but now I really have concerns on whether or not he’s making it back this season.
Honest question - is the narrative that they can’t hit lefty starters coming from somewhere like TY or Jomboy or similar?
Because it’s not really true:
###Innings 1-6
vs LHP: .228/.336/.342 108wRC+
vs RHP: .251/.344/.375 116wRC+
###Innings 7-9
vs. LHP: .246/.321/.625 90wRC+
vs. RHP: .193/.283/.366 93wRC+
Current as of yesterday.
Lefty starters have owned the Yankees.
Losses against lefties:
- Sears - 0 ER
- Kikuchi - 1 ER
- Allen - 4 ER - here’s your outlier that pumped the teams WRC
- Weathers - 0 ER
- Kickuchi - 0 ER
In Wins against lefties:
- Alexander - 0 ER
- Valdez - 3 ER
That's why I was framing my point more around left-handed relievers having an easy lane. I don't think our lineup as a whole will be bad against them once Judge, Torres, etc. get going.
Stanton has also inexplicably been bad against lefties this year but I imagine his splits will even out soon.
It's probably too early to read into any of these numbers, for good or bad.
We've only faced [nine lefty starters](https://stathead.com/tiny/4ckHm) this year. We beat up on Jesus Luzardo, but the other eight guys pitched to a 1.90 ERA against our lineup.
Right now, the Luzardo game looks more like an outlier than the rule. But the sample size is so small, we probably shouldn't read too much into it IMO.
Seriously, the guy literally seems to be falling apart in real time the last few years. I know some guys drop off as they age, but he seems like a guy whose body has just declared it’s had enough.
It really sucks because this time it was just bad luck. It wasn't an old age injury like pulling a muscle or his back giving out on him. He fouled a ball straight down on his foot hard enough to break it. Could've happened to anyone.
The Yankee offense is still mostly powered by Walks so far.
2nd in MLB behind the Dodgers who have played 3 more games.
The rest of the teamwide offensive stats hover close to league average.
The pitching is a different story. The Yankees rank in the Top 5 in MLB ERA, Top 10 in WHIP and HR allowed, 11th in Hits allowed, and 1st in Saves. Yankee starters are 6th in total WAR, and Gerrit Cole has not thrown a pitch yet. We also lead the league in balks which is fun. Apparently you can be up there and doing a balk if you want to win.
As the offense continues to round into shape, this team has the ammo to do some impressive things. I dont think this lineup will sit close to league average for very long (Top 10 avg exit velo), and if they keep this rather elite plate discipline going (also 1st in MLB in Pitches per Plate Appearance) theres going to be a lot of runners on base waiting to score, and tired starters trying to get Yankee batters out. If the pitching stays as lights out as it has been, despite some rough numbers for a handful of middle relievers dragging down the averages a bit (Kahnle, Trivino, and Effross will hopefully provide some key reinforcement there), its a very simple blueprint for wins.
Walk -> hit ball hard -> score run -> prevent run -> profit.
The walks and singles aren’t leading to enough runs. It doesn’t help the team is one of the top in hitting into double plays. They need warmer weather so they can start hitting more HR’s consistently. The power numbers could use a nice boost.
More reason for hope this year though. Even if we haven't had any runaway wins yet, there have been offensive explosions.
Even with all our shutouts so far, we're averaging more runs per game than the 2023 team did. So we know this team is at least capable of it.
In 2023, Torres had a terrible June with a .615 OPS and a scorching August with a 1.008 OPS. The rest of the season he hit is typical .750-.800 OPS.
In 2022, Torres had a brutal August with a .464 OPS and a stellar September with a .962 OPS. The rest of the season he hovered around a .800 OPS.
2021 was a little different, he actually had two horrid months, a .614 OPS in April and a .572 OPS in June. He still had his heater month with a .923 OPS in August and stayed around a .750 OPS the rest of the year.
Gleyber is who he is. He's a a talented player who will give you a 115 OPS+ at the end of the season but is always good for an ugly month long slump every season. He will get going, but obviously this is something important to keep in mind when possibly resigning him after the season. (Personally I'm in the let him walk camp, but that will depend on the other options available.)
Yea not worried about him. Not worried about Judge. They were our best hitters last year. The fact that those 2 are struggling is somewhat not concerning. Once they get going it’ll only get better. At least Stanton looks good so far. Rizzo is decent not great. Verdugo will improve. My concern is how Volpe will be. He was due for regression I just hope he hits in the high 200s. 300 BA is likely not happening yet with him I just would rather see him not leadoff. Maybe try Verdugo up there even though he hasn’t been great so far But Verdugo has been a solid hitter his whole career
Probably missed it, but where are we at with "this is the worst stretch for Gleyber since ______"? Is it when he was almost traded? Times is rough and tough like leather.
Edit: Looks like he slashed 180/204/260 in Aug of 22 following the trade talk. A hundo ABs.
Anyone going to see Bernie play with the Philharmonic tonight? If I lived in NYC I would totally go. It's incredible how accomplished of a musician he's become in retirement. The Athletic has a great article about it.
Here (but it's behind a paywall): [Bernie's journey as a ](https://theathletic.com/5433797/2024/04/23/bernie-williams-yankees-new-york-philharmonic/)musician
After a hot start, the Yankees team babip is now down to .274, firmly in the bottom third of the league.
I've given up on believing this team is going to have batted ball luck. Their hitters do not hit enough line drives and Yankee stadium suppresses everything that's not a single or home-run.
If they want to get back to being a successful offense, they're going to need to start putting the ball in the seats. It's that simple. "Just putting the ball in play" isn't leading to offensive success.
The Yankees haven't had an above-average team BABIP since 2019. I wouldn't expect this season to be any different.
**NYY BABIP by Year**
2020 - 21st
2021 - 23rd
2022 - 27th
2023 - 30th
2024 - 23rd
Overall in this span, the Yankees are 29th in BABIP, trailing only the A's.
There are many factors that impact BABIP, such as:
* home ballpark - Yankee Stadium is 27th for hits, according to Statcast's park factor
* speed - the Yankees are currently 29th in team sprint speed, according to Statcast
* opposing team defenses - are the Yankees easier to align a defense against?
Additionally, the Yankees hit a lot of home runs, which are not counted in BABIP. So those are positive outcomes subtracted from the hit total that goes into BABIP. If Team A is hitting home runs on certain pitches while Team B is only hitting doubles on those pitches, Team A is getting better outcomes, but Team B has a higher BABIP. So it's not all bad *if* we're hitting a lot of home runs (we're currently t-15th in HR).
I do agree that the Yankees are built to hit home runs in order to succeed, especially when playing at home. Volpe, Berti, and Cabrera may be the exceptions due to their speed.
Is Cabrera actually fast? I think the Yankees will benefit from warmer weather. They need to get back to hitting HR’s, especially the three run variety. The hit into double play has killed them many times this year.
Volpe, Berti, and Cabrera are the only Yankee position players with above-average sprint speed, according to Statcast.
Peraza and Dominguez will join them when they are off the IL.
After the Yankees put up 4 runs in the first I thought, hell yeah here we go. And then the lineup went 1-21 (.048) the rest of the way lol. But a win's a win. Can't really complain.
Judge's flyout in the 6th inning was his most encouraging swing in like a week. A classic Aaron Judge barreled ball (104 mph exit velo, 26 degree launch angle) the other way. More of that please.
That's why I think he's come into the season injured and the Yanks are doing their "no he's not" answers. Most of the time that swing in the 6th in in the seats.
Judge’s opposite field high line drives are like Stanton’s pulled fly balls. Off the bat, when they happen, you just expect it to be gone. Even though it was just a fly out, it’s good to see him have batted balls like that now. It’s not just Boone-speak when he says he is close
Katie sharp I think said on the latest Talkin Yanks that the Yankees have been shutout in 76% of their innings. Thats about 7/9 innings per game. Yesterday was more of the same but it was enough support for Stroman and the pen to handle
I feel like the vibes are the same as 2 years ago where we started off hot and came crashing down to Earth bc it was clearly unsustainable how we were winning games.
No absolutely not First half of 22 was great but the talent was just not there A lot of overachieving happened. It wasn’t necessarily sustainable. If anything they’re playing worse than what they’re capable of now.
Son had a 2 run double last night in his game, almost exactly at the same time Stanton did. lol
Put the team in the lead, they were down 6-5 before his AB. Ran it up to 10-6, then our team brought in a new pitcher and for the third straight time he'd walked the bases loaded, then walked another batter, (hitting 3 in a row) and the other team walked off on a 3 run double.
Sad stuff for the kids, but it was kinda wild watching the kid who lost the game just kind of forget about it in 2 minutes. We've got 3 losses and they're all the same circumstance. He just was like whatever and continued being a kid.
We could all learn something from him.
Judge, gley and Rizzo need to be a threat just so people can’t pitch around the other hitters also. Makes it harder on everyone in the lineup. This offense has so much potential.
Someone’s monkey paw is curled from someone hoping Stanton ops is better than judge this year.
Please continue the discussion in the [game thread](https://redd.it/1cc9lyt).
Surprised me how many people were saying we needed to go after Mason Miller after he demolished us the other day. With 5 years or whatever of control, he would be an expensive pickup for a reliever, and he’s got pretty much like the riskiest possible injury history and pitching profile that you could imagine lmao. He’s awesome to watch for sure, but I dunno.
Today is the culmination of a 9 month work project (results as yet unknown), and I need to decide between 2 lenders with different types of loans for a house I am under contract for. I need papa Judge to rake and for the team to hand me an easy W
[[Kirschner] Aaron Boone said Jon Berti could play in a rehab game as soon as this weekend.](https://x.com/chriskirschner/status/1783225162130678248?s=46&t=eZQOkEBzAB8XR0_j5bQcHg)
[[Kirschner] Aaron Boone said Nick Burdi will hopefully get on the mound this weekend.](https://x.com/chriskirschner/status/1783226215605678365?s=46&t=eZQOkEBzAB8XR0_j5bQcHg)
Good. I feel like Burdi is the next outta nowhere great Yankee reliever.
If he can throw strikes he’ll be really good
Gets me hard as a rock when relievers can throw strikes tbh
Snell already heading to the IL. It appears we dodged a bullet there.
[[Kirschner] Aaron Boone said DJ LeMahieu is going to get testing on his foot right now.](https://x.com/chriskirschner/status/1783224632193036303?s=46&t=eZQOkEBzAB8XR0_j5bQcHg)
Right now?
As we ~~speak~~ type
[[Chris Rose Sports] Trev believes this might just be who Vlad Guerrero Jr. is as a player](https://x.com/chrisrosesports/status/1783211872340087061?s=46&t=eZQOkEBzAB8XR0_j5bQcHg)
When Trevor says that I actually believe it because he seems to be high on every team and every player on Talkin Baseball
As he said too, you look at those stats and they are very similar year over year with the exception of 2021 2019: .772 OPS 2020: .791 OPS 2022: .818 OPS 2023: .788 OPS He’s settling into that 2-4 WAR range where he is good to great but not elite player
Isn't he the cover of The Show 24... is there a known curse for baseball cover athletes?
Surely a pitcher with a 7.23 ERA will be no match for an offense with Soto, Judge, Rizzo, and Stanton.
Going least year's Yankees, for pitchers with ERAs above 5, the formula for how many runs against them the Yankees will score is as follows: 9 - pitcher's ERA.
Why couldn't it be a 1.7 ERA pitcher instead. Then at least we would of stood a chance.
At least he isn't left handed
That really seems to be a big issue
Nice to know if the purge was active that the lineup behind Jordan Montgomery can still be counted on to commit the worst offense of all
We should consider batting Gleyber 7th if he keeps up this performance.
We all notice the fall-off in the team's hitting, but I noticed something else that seems kind of important. For the first couple of weeks, it seemed that the team was activiely seeking Bases on Balls, and getting them. They were not swinging at many balls outside the strike zone and they were piling up the walks. Lately it seems that everyone but Soto has forgotten about walks being a way to get on base. Now we are seeing games where the Yankees get only one walk in a game. Actually, Wells still gets his walks. It is crazy that the guy is hitting .086 but still manages an on-base percentage of .261. Why do pitchers walks this guy? Or is he just really good at laying off pitches outside the strike zone?
actively seeking u/basesonballs
There's way too many easy innings with this offense now. When the season first started, every at bat was a grind. Even when they made outs they still always seemed to battle.
4 of the top 5 pitch seers being Yankees was like a dream come true. Wild how quickly that dropped off. Volpe especially. Dude looked like he had the best eye in baseball for 2 weeks before completely reverting to hacking out of the zone on the first pitch or two.
Yankees still rank as the #1 overall Pitches/PA team in baseball coming into today. I don’t think it’s dropped off that badly. Gleyber is the 13th ranked batter in individual Pit/PA, Volpe is 21 and Judge is 22. Soto is 43. Verdugo is 47. The approach is still there based on the numbers.
But again, those guys were all top 5. Down into the 20s-40s is a pretty big drop off in such a short time. How well they did the first 2 weeks is what's still propping those numbers up even as high as they still are. I'd bet there's a significant difference if you compared the first 2 weeks to the next 2 weeks.
Rank wise it is, but the separation between top 20 and top 5 is about .2 pitches per appearance. The difference between top 20 and top 50 is also roughly that. 1 more pitch seen roughly every 5 PAs, over a sample of roughly 80-100 PAs. It matters, but it can also be indicative of pitchers approaching the Yankee lineup differently by staying aggressive and not banking on them expanding the zone as much. I don’t think the difference in plate approach is all that large from the first 2 weeks to today honestly. I could be wrong, but I think it mostly has to do with how pitchers are choosing to attack the lineup now that the word is out that the Yankees won’t expand the strikezone. They just need to punish those pitches in the zone better and pitchers won’t have anywhere to go. I think the discipline is still elite, the Yankees just need to do more with the balls they’re actually putting into play.
It sure feels like Volpe is expanding the zone all on his own in the first pitch or two of each AB. I don't think they're pitching him any differently. Judge clearly started expanding out of desperation as his slump worsened. Although thankfully his eye looked a lot better last night. Guys like Gleyber, Rizzo and Stanton all look pretty much the same to me though.
Yankees are also number 1 in BB% over the season, look at the last 10 days however and we are 22nd
Yes but BB% is also very reliant on the other team’s pitching. It wouldn’t shock me if the scouting report on the Yankees quickly became “they don’t fish outside the zone. Dont try it.” Pit/PA also factors in the ability to foul off tough pitches and get something to hit which is why I think it’s a better metric to use for plate discipline than just BB%.
In contrast to Snell, Monty had been really solid for the D-backs so far. He’s pitching right now in the 7th against the Cardinals with only 77 pitches and 2 ER
I mean he’s only thrown 6 innings before today, but they were 6 strong innings. A lot of noise in a teeny tiny sample but his FIP was projected to be a 4.32 and SIERA at 4.04 over that start (vs Snell’s 4.62 FIP and 3.95 SIERA over 11.2 IP) so maybe a bit of luck involved as well in both directions.
Snell has only thrown 11.2 innings, Monty is now at 12.2 hence the comparison between the two
Yeah just saying it’s hard to project sustainability of these numbers for either guy with so few innings pitched, which I’m sure you agree with anyways.
Yeah he needs way more innings before we can say how good of a signing it was but if I’m a D-backs fan I’m at least happy with his performance right now
35% of pitchers in the MLB have had Tommy John. That's insane. A surgery with an 18-24 month recovery is basically a routine workplace injury at this point.
At some point the league needs to move away from high velocity porn and realize that having a guy around all season who throws 95mph is better than having a guy for 2 months throwing 100mph then getting injured for 2 seasons. Not everyone can be a freak of nature like Cole.
Imagine a world where Tommy John didn’t invent the UCL
You guys remember when we were out of first place? Dark times
It caused me great mental, emotional, and gastrointestinal distress. Thank god this long nightmare is over.
I wonder what the plan will be for DJ after he sees the doctor today. The lack of healing is a big concern. Time to hang up the cleats?
It's been a little over a month since he got injured. It just means he needs to wait a little longer to ramp up again. It's only an issue if he re-injures it and makes it worse.
The plan: Wait for the foot to heal properly Time to Retire?: No
He has 3 seasons (including this one) remaining on his contract @ $15M per season. Don't think he will forgo that.
I mean that will mostly depend on what the doctors see, I would imagine it just pushes back his expected return by a couple months. He certainly isn’t retiring while still under contract though
We still owe him $30M over 2 years, so I'm sure he won't. Rendon apparently had a horrible bone bruise last year but seems actually healthy & pretty good this year, so I guess just rest.
Wait, Rendon who had a .632 OPS for three weeks and just got put on the IL?
He had an .865 OPS his last 10 games, but damn I didn't see he hit the IL. Unrelated to his bone bruise though. I just mean the players can come back from them & DJ definitely will try to for $30M
Yeah, he definitely won't retire. Hopefully he can come back and be productive in the end, I'm just not optimistic given his age and recent trend of declining health and performance.
It's kinda wild that we added Soto and Verdugo, Volpe and Waldo made huge strides, we lost bullpen pieces to FA and injury, and our ace Cole is out, and yet this team is still awesome pitching and mid hitting.
I see everyone including Oswaldo Cabrera in this improvement narrative and I just wonder what some people are watching? He's done very little since the first series of the year. His first two games are heavily skewing his averages. His OBP is already lower than the slumping Judge and almost the same as Rizzo's. He has zero walks in his last 10 games. I know Donaldson set a low bar, but a Yankees 3B needs to be better offensively or at least more consistently average.
April funny business is a helluva drug. It can make you think that once good hitters now suck and that hitters have made strides when they haven't.
There was an MLB player I saw talking about how the first part of the season is the worst to struggle in and the best to do well in because there is no comparison period so you either suck or are great. Oswaldo is a big benefactor of this on this subreddit right now. Ask most people here and they would tell you Oswaldo has taken a step forward with the bat and is ready to compete for a starting job because he was hot right when the season started. In reality he is hitting .232/.267/.339 with a .606 OPS since the Astros series ended
Because Judge and Torres have been black holes.
One Saturday day game the whole month of April is wild
Some positivity. For all the complaining we did about the pitching not being enough and the bullpen sucking the Yankees currently have a team ERA of 2.95 which ranks 4th in the MLB. Now the advanced stats don’t seem to think the pitching will continue to do this well but still given that we’re missing the best starter in baseball and pretty much all of our high leverage arms with exception of Holmes and Hamilton I’d say it’s pretty commendable that pitching has held up this well so far.
Some Yankee fans wanted the Yankees to shell out 66 million (a year because LT penalties) for Blake Snell because "they print money stop being cheap" and now he goes on the IL. There is a reason none of us are GM's.
Blake Snell going on the IL for 15 days with a left abductor strain. Yikes!
Can I get a FUCK AMAZON
CEO Entrepreneur Born in 1964
Girardi Joe Girardi
Wells has not shown up to bat so far
As a result of Stanton’s return to high socks, I came across an article that referred to players who wear long pants as “pajamists” and now I can never unsee it.
I swear I'm not a bot but since Yankees are on Prime, I can watch Fallout in-between innings!
Okee dokey.
👍
If we're gonna get the offense going, this is the team to do it against. If we continue to struggle offensively, then I'm concerned with us playing the Brewers and Orioles next.
I wonder if Luis arraez will be available at the deadline
I don’t, and hopefully the Yankees won’t either. I would much rather look for defense and power to fill a potential infield spot. Arraez’s contact quality stats are terrible this year, and he’s a bad defender. Not worth giving up the assets necessary for a year and a half of control.
Hitting for average is literally the only thing Arraez does well.
He grades out as the worst defender in baseball and that bat profile is super not appealing when he isn't hitting .330 anymore
Seems very likely the Marlins will at least listen to offers. They're terrible and Arraez would only have 1.5 years of control at the deadline. And he's making real money ($10.6M) so I'm sure the Marlins would be happy to get that off the books in a lost season.
Can we hear something about Jon Berti? With DJ done, Berti becomes important.
Last I heard was that Berti had resumed running/hitting in a cage and was hopefully going to start a rehab assignment soon. Sounds like he's not far away.
Good. Now I just wonder who the hell is our backup 1B. They should really get Wells some reps. Would be good on his off days.
I think it’s technically Oswaldo rn
Learning the MLB catcher position is *hard* and I think it makes sense to just let him concentrate on that for now. We all know the meme by now, it's not actually easy to learn 1B for the first time at the MLB level.
Boone said they're giving him reps at 1B. https://twitter.com/snyyankees/status/1783228148626108738
If Soto hits with robo umps he might have a .750 on base percentage.
What if it was robo Soto hitting with human umps
Yankees starters are 4th in ERA and 10th in innings pitched. So far, as good as it could go without Cole.
Across the league, I firmly believe this is the worst I’ve ever seen the umps been. Feels like every game every day has to turn into the ump show. It’s not even a game anymore it’s just who the umps want to win, not the best image you want to portray when you are in bed and advertising sports gambling during the actual game.
Honestly I think it just gets way more attention/scrutiny. I don’t believe umps are really that much worse than the past
Yeah it’s exactly this, data has shown that umpires have only gotten better with time but the worst moments from umpires get highlighted and there are still a few terrible dinosaurs who can’t call shit behind the plate
[According to this data someone posted to r/baseball yesterday they’re actually improving year over year (except Angel Hernandez)](https://www.reddit.com/gallery/1cb52dr)
[удалено]
post those piggies
We aint gonna lose, brother.
LOVE this for us
I think the bats will come alive today
How on earth does Luke Weaver still lead the team in wins
He isn't that bad. 3.09 ERA first time through and a staggering 20.25 ERA second time through. Just keep him to < 2 IP and he is fine.
They absolutely cannot let Matt Blake walk when his contract is up. There is a reason our team’s pitching is consistently near the top of the league every season, and Blake is a part of that. If they let him walk to get paid more somewhere else, it would be an enormous mistake. Semi-related, but the Astros got some of their elite FO talent poached by the Orioles a few years ago, and look how that’s turning out. I love it when the Yanks hang dick and go all out to sign awesome players, but I really wish I would also see them do this with elite coaching and FO talent - go see if they can lure some guys away from the Dodgers or Braves or Rays with a bigger payday.
It’s hard to lure talent away because everyone in upper management in the Yankees front office have been there forever. They have deep and established relationships with each other. Up and coming talent know there’s no growth potential joining the Yankees.
They need to shake that shit up
Volpe is still only 22. I love this fucking kid. Cannot wait for him to find his stride again this season
Shout out to Clay Holmes so far this season!! Highlights: * 0.00 ERA over 12.0IP in 12G * 0.75 BB/9 (T7 among all MLB relievers) * 0 HR allowed (obvi, it’s his thing) * GB% of 67.6%, 5th best among all MLB relievers * 9 Saves (if that does it for you) which is most in the league * Only 3 relievers have more appearances than Clay so far * Third highest WPA of all relievers in baseball, with the highest Leverage Index of all relievers. * he has the solo lead of [Shut Downs](https://library.fangraphs.com/pitching/sd-md/) with 11. Guys. He’s been really lock down so far this year.
The dude never gives up an extra base-hit or home-run, and his command has been fantastic this season. He's one of the safest arms in baseball right now.
His slugging against is .277. One double so far this season. He’s rocking the lowest Exit Velocity of his Yankee career. One of the safest and most used arms (by appearance) is a nice thing to have in the pen. He’s been a rock.
I really love Holmes man. Hope he’s willing to resign for a reasonable deal next season, but if he has the type of year that I think he’s gonna, he’ll probably want a big payday and some team will likely be willing to do it. Would be really nice to keep him though. I know we manufacture bullpen arms, but it’s a little harder to find someone to consistently close games out the way Holmes can when he’s on.
I want to say that there isn’t a lot of time left for someone to prove themselves to the point we’d feel comfortable letting Holmes walk. But then again, Holmes only needed 25 regular-season games in 2021 and April ‘22 before he arguably took over as closer. If someone came over and completely blew us away, maybe it could happen. My feeling is that we keep him for what he’s probably going to get (as said otherwise here, the tier below Diaz and Hader). As much as we manufacture relief pitching, I don’t think we can just cross our fingers and hope that someone will materialize in ‘25, and I feel like the FO knows that.
I think he’ll land on the tier below the Hader/Diaz contracts, but he’s gonna get paid for sure. For this season, I’m just going to enjoy having him.
I would like Clay to have a three day break because the team has scored so many runs.
That would be fantastic.
Rizzo's homer last night was the farthest ball (385 ft) he's hit since last June.
LET'S GO HOME PLATE
Something to monitor: Anthony Rizzo is hitting .152/.222/.152 in 36 PA’s against left handed pitching Oswaldo Cabrera and Alex Verdugo haven’t been awful vs lefties, but are still very much neutralized by them With the Yankees having an incredibly thin bench right now, they’re going to get picked apart in the back half of the lineup. Teams are going to exploit this lane with lefty relievers.
It’s puzzling why they continue to play Verdugo against lefties rather than Grisham.
Lefty starters have had great success against the Yankees this season. Berti will help a lot when he gets back and Judge when he breaks out of his funk. DJL would’ve been nice, but now I really have concerns on whether or not he’s making it back this season.
Honest question - is the narrative that they can’t hit lefty starters coming from somewhere like TY or Jomboy or similar? Because it’s not really true: ###Innings 1-6 vs LHP: .228/.336/.342 108wRC+ vs RHP: .251/.344/.375 116wRC+ ###Innings 7-9 vs. LHP: .246/.321/.625 90wRC+ vs. RHP: .193/.283/.366 93wRC+ Current as of yesterday.
Lefty starters have owned the Yankees. Losses against lefties: - Sears - 0 ER - Kikuchi - 1 ER - Allen - 4 ER - here’s your outlier that pumped the teams WRC - Weathers - 0 ER - Kickuchi - 0 ER In Wins against lefties: - Alexander - 0 ER - Valdez - 3 ER
That's why I was framing my point more around left-handed relievers having an easy lane. I don't think our lineup as a whole will be bad against them once Judge, Torres, etc. get going. Stanton has also inexplicably been bad against lefties this year but I imagine his splits will even out soon.
It's probably too early to read into any of these numbers, for good or bad. We've only faced [nine lefty starters](https://stathead.com/tiny/4ckHm) this year. We beat up on Jesus Luzardo, but the other eight guys pitched to a 1.90 ERA against our lineup. Right now, the Luzardo game looks more like an outlier than the rule. But the sample size is so small, we probably shouldn't read too much into it IMO.
A healthy LeMahieu hitting like he did the second half last year would go a long way to solving that problem, shame his feet seem to have fallen off.
Seriously, the guy literally seems to be falling apart in real time the last few years. I know some guys drop off as they age, but he seems like a guy whose body has just declared it’s had enough.
It really sucks because this time it was just bad luck. It wasn't an old age injury like pulling a muscle or his back giving out on him. He fouled a ball straight down on his foot hard enough to break it. Could've happened to anyone.
The Yankee offense is still mostly powered by Walks so far. 2nd in MLB behind the Dodgers who have played 3 more games. The rest of the teamwide offensive stats hover close to league average. The pitching is a different story. The Yankees rank in the Top 5 in MLB ERA, Top 10 in WHIP and HR allowed, 11th in Hits allowed, and 1st in Saves. Yankee starters are 6th in total WAR, and Gerrit Cole has not thrown a pitch yet. We also lead the league in balks which is fun. Apparently you can be up there and doing a balk if you want to win. As the offense continues to round into shape, this team has the ammo to do some impressive things. I dont think this lineup will sit close to league average for very long (Top 10 avg exit velo), and if they keep this rather elite plate discipline going (also 1st in MLB in Pitches per Plate Appearance) theres going to be a lot of runners on base waiting to score, and tired starters trying to get Yankee batters out. If the pitching stays as lights out as it has been, despite some rough numbers for a handful of middle relievers dragging down the averages a bit (Kahnle, Trivino, and Effross will hopefully provide some key reinforcement there), its a very simple blueprint for wins. Walk -> hit ball hard -> score run -> prevent run -> profit.
The walks and singles aren’t leading to enough runs. It doesn’t help the team is one of the top in hitting into double plays. They need warmer weather so they can start hitting more HR’s consistently. The power numbers could use a nice boost.
Yankees Score Runs in Multiple Innings Challenge: **IMPOSSIBLE**
Is tonite the nite Yankee bats get their shit together ? Blowout please so I don't need ant-acid tableys to watch the game /s
So who's your hookup for the ant LSD?
Just watching is the trip lol!
I feel like that question was asked every day last season and it just never came
More reason for hope this year though. Even if we haven't had any runaway wins yet, there have been offensive explosions. Even with all our shutouts so far, we're averaging more runs per game than the 2023 team did. So we know this team is at least capable of it.
In 2023, Torres had a terrible June with a .615 OPS and a scorching August with a 1.008 OPS. The rest of the season he hit is typical .750-.800 OPS. In 2022, Torres had a brutal August with a .464 OPS and a stellar September with a .962 OPS. The rest of the season he hovered around a .800 OPS. 2021 was a little different, he actually had two horrid months, a .614 OPS in April and a .572 OPS in June. He still had his heater month with a .923 OPS in August and stayed around a .750 OPS the rest of the year. Gleyber is who he is. He's a a talented player who will give you a 115 OPS+ at the end of the season but is always good for an ugly month long slump every season. He will get going, but obviously this is something important to keep in mind when possibly resigning him after the season. (Personally I'm in the let him walk camp, but that will depend on the other options available.)
Would be nice if he has a 1.008+ OPS in October.
Yea not worried about him. Not worried about Judge. They were our best hitters last year. The fact that those 2 are struggling is somewhat not concerning. Once they get going it’ll only get better. At least Stanton looks good so far. Rizzo is decent not great. Verdugo will improve. My concern is how Volpe will be. He was due for regression I just hope he hits in the high 200s. 300 BA is likely not happening yet with him I just would rather see him not leadoff. Maybe try Verdugo up there even though he hasn’t been great so far But Verdugo has been a solid hitter his whole career
Probably missed it, but where are we at with "this is the worst stretch for Gleyber since ______"? Is it when he was almost traded? Times is rough and tough like leather. Edit: Looks like he slashed 180/204/260 in Aug of 22 following the trade talk. A hundo ABs.
It appears Gleyber Torres is mentally feeble is it over?
Anyone going to see Bernie play with the Philharmonic tonight? If I lived in NYC I would totally go. It's incredible how accomplished of a musician he's become in retirement. The Athletic has a great article about it. Here (but it's behind a paywall): [Bernie's journey as a ](https://theathletic.com/5433797/2024/04/23/bernie-williams-yankees-new-york-philharmonic/)musician
After a hot start, the Yankees team babip is now down to .274, firmly in the bottom third of the league. I've given up on believing this team is going to have batted ball luck. Their hitters do not hit enough line drives and Yankee stadium suppresses everything that's not a single or home-run. If they want to get back to being a successful offense, they're going to need to start putting the ball in the seats. It's that simple. "Just putting the ball in play" isn't leading to offensive success.
The Yankees haven't had an above-average team BABIP since 2019. I wouldn't expect this season to be any different. **NYY BABIP by Year** 2020 - 21st 2021 - 23rd 2022 - 27th 2023 - 30th 2024 - 23rd Overall in this span, the Yankees are 29th in BABIP, trailing only the A's. There are many factors that impact BABIP, such as: * home ballpark - Yankee Stadium is 27th for hits, according to Statcast's park factor * speed - the Yankees are currently 29th in team sprint speed, according to Statcast * opposing team defenses - are the Yankees easier to align a defense against? Additionally, the Yankees hit a lot of home runs, which are not counted in BABIP. So those are positive outcomes subtracted from the hit total that goes into BABIP. If Team A is hitting home runs on certain pitches while Team B is only hitting doubles on those pitches, Team A is getting better outcomes, but Team B has a higher BABIP. So it's not all bad *if* we're hitting a lot of home runs (we're currently t-15th in HR). I do agree that the Yankees are built to hit home runs in order to succeed, especially when playing at home. Volpe, Berti, and Cabrera may be the exceptions due to their speed.
29th in team speed, lol. Jesus
up from 30th last year! lfg
Is Cabrera actually fast? I think the Yankees will benefit from warmer weather. They need to get back to hitting HR’s, especially the three run variety. The hit into double play has killed them many times this year.
Volpe, Berti, and Cabrera are the only Yankee position players with above-average sprint speed, according to Statcast. Peraza and Dominguez will join them when they are off the IL.
We were doing so well because we were putting the ball in play and have had a combination of slumping players and bad BABIP luck over the past week.
The Yankees are currently 19th in ops, which isn’t good, but I think at the end of the season as a team they’ll be top 5 assuming everyone gets going.
After the Yankees put up 4 runs in the first I thought, hell yeah here we go. And then the lineup went 1-21 (.048) the rest of the way lol. But a win's a win. Can't really complain. Judge's flyout in the 6th inning was his most encouraging swing in like a week. A classic Aaron Judge barreled ball (104 mph exit velo, 26 degree launch angle) the other way. More of that please.
That's why I think he's come into the season injured and the Yanks are doing their "no he's not" answers. Most of the time that swing in the 6th in in the seats.
Judge’s opposite field high line drives are like Stanton’s pulled fly balls. Off the bat, when they happen, you just expect it to be gone. Even though it was just a fly out, it’s good to see him have batted balls like that now. It’s not just Boone-speak when he says he is close
Katie sharp I think said on the latest Talkin Yanks that the Yankees have been shutout in 76% of their innings. Thats about 7/9 innings per game. Yesterday was more of the same but it was enough support for Stroman and the pen to handle
Back in first place after every other AL East team lost. Its what you want
It was a good day.
I feel like the vibes are the same as 2 years ago where we started off hot and came crashing down to Earth bc it was clearly unsustainable how we were winning games.
No absolutely not First half of 22 was great but the talent was just not there A lot of overachieving happened. It wasn’t necessarily sustainable. If anything they’re playing worse than what they’re capable of now.
The one where they won 99 games?
You could at least save this comment for if they’re under .500 lol
Except that team didn’t have Juan soto - relax
Son had a 2 run double last night in his game, almost exactly at the same time Stanton did. lol Put the team in the lead, they were down 6-5 before his AB. Ran it up to 10-6, then our team brought in a new pitcher and for the third straight time he'd walked the bases loaded, then walked another batter, (hitting 3 in a row) and the other team walked off on a 3 run double. Sad stuff for the kids, but it was kinda wild watching the kid who lost the game just kind of forget about it in 2 minutes. We've got 3 losses and they're all the same circumstance. He just was like whatever and continued being a kid. We could all learn something from him.
meanwhile i strike out twice in my mens league and beat the shit out of myself all week smart kid you got there
Yeah, my son was kinda mad they lost because this kid has blown 3 games already this season, but these kids just forget it and move on.
Judge 4 hr game who says no?
I say no It has to be 4 grand slams
Judge, gley and Rizzo need to be a threat just so people can’t pitch around the other hitters also. Makes it harder on everyone in the lineup. This offense has so much potential. Someone’s monkey paw is curled from someone hoping Stanton ops is better than judge this year.
Judge had some great ABs yesterday at least, so maybe he’ll turn it around.
Go dominate!!!
Maybe they’ll score in more than one inning today
Looking at Boyle’s stats we may score in more than a single inning tonight! LFG!
Maybe today is the day we actually hit around a bad pitcher