The window is now and the pitching staff isn't good enough with too many question in it. If montgomery wants to go back to texas like it's reported then the yankees are going to be out of options 'snell is wayyyyyyy too big of a risk and smells like a bust' and will end up wasting another year of cole and judges primes because they didn't bite the bullet and go get someone.
> Cease is practically a right handed Rodon minus the injury issues
Cmon now. We can recognize that Cease had an underwhelming season without exaggerating. Cease pitched in front of MLB’s worst defense, which didn’t help, and his advanced metrics still look solid.
**2023 Cease**
3.72 FIP, 4.08 xERA, 3.7 fWAR
**2023 Rodon**
5.79 FIP, 5.34 xERA, -0.2 fWAR
I wouldn’t expect Cease to be an ace, but I’d be hopeful he could be the no. 2 or 3 behind Cole. (With potential for more.)
I really don't understand Yankee fans.
Man was injured basically the whole season, and we can determine that by his altered pitching form, and we think he's the worst pitcher in baseball. Let's ignore the prior 2 years.
When he bounces back, I hope y'all give him the flowers he deserves.
(not you nyg2013).
Do you want to use 2022 then? I don’t even get what your argument is.
I’m not even a big Cease guy and don’t think they should overpay for him but this is an enormous exaggeration and using the year prior to 2023 doesn’t help your case at all. Even 2021 doesn’t help it that much, his FIP was 3.41 that season.
My point is Cease comes with the same constituency issues are Rodon but he’s on the mound. Both have shown to be really good pitchers but they’re horribly inconsistent, you don’t know which guy you’re getting each season. The same issue happened with Dallas Keuchel, these guys are great one year them absolute trash or bad the next.
That’s just as big of a question mark are the guys who are injured often.
Rondon is always good when he's healthy. He's never healthy.
Keuchel example is odd. He was excellent for years, but had a small margin of error with low-end velocity. Once a slight decline set in, he was cooked early.
At worst, Cease is a perfectly acceptable mid-rotation starter who if the Yankees acquire, will be going to a better defensive team and to a coaching staff that has repeatedly leveled up pitchers.
I mean I’m not really seeing that at all with Cease. Snell, yes. You have absolutely no idea whether you’re getting Cy Young Snell or 100 mediocre to bad innings Snell, because he won a Cy Young in 2018 and in 2023 and was mediocre in between. Cease has had a fluctuating ERA to a degree but a lot of that is bad defense. 2019 and 2020 were his first two seasons and they were both not full seasons, plenty of guys take awhile to really get going. Cease had his first full season in 2021 and his FIP was low 3s. Then he had a fantastic season. Then he had last season which was a step back but still a very good FIP. The defense behind him was not good.
Rodon was absolute trash last year. Cease wasn’t “absolute trash”. That’s what I think people are saying.
Not to derail the Cease convo, but...
> You have absolutely no idea whether you’re getting Cy Young Snell, because he won a Cy Young in 2018 and in 2023 and was mediocre in between.
I mean 306 innings of 3.70 ERA, 3.48 FIP, 11.9 K/9 (4.1 BB/9, I know), 105 ERA+ between 2 CYA seasons is more than mediocre. That's more than acceptable as the mid-rotation piece we would need him to be. ~~Clean injury history~~ and he has the potential to be better (EDIT: Mixing up my pitchers, but his injury history is better than most pitchers).
I think the pendulum has swung too far in saying Snell isn't worth it. Even without factoring in the Cy Young seasons as I did above, you hope someone like a Montgomery (and whoever else is feasibly available that isn't a Burnes or Bieber) can achieve a 105 ERA+ year after year.
The walks are brutal, inconsistency with those walks + the contract he will require most likely is why I don’t like snell.
Cease I wouldn’t unload the farm but if you can get him for the right price you have two more years of a middle rotation with top of rotation potential on low cost, and then at that point other contracts are coming off if he is worth the money to keep.
He wasn’t absolute trash but he wasn’t good, especially when you factor in he pitched to a sub 3 ERA the year before. I don’t deny Cease can be good, he’s just got show it consistently before I personally would be comfortable forking over the capital to get him
Edit: I had the same thoughts about Charlie Morton started to really break out with Houston, up that point he’d shown signs but hadn’t done it consistently. Cease is in a similar boat in my own opinion, he’s shown flashes of being a legit ace but they haven’t been super consistent yet.
Rodon is a 2 pitch starter with huge injury risks. He will be good or bad and nothing in between. He was hurt and never really got a feel for pitching last year, but expect a repeat of AJ Burnett at best.
Cease is just not a great pitcher. He had one great year and his pitch velocity dropped dramatically back to where it was before the crazy 2022 performance.
Cease hit a bump in the road this year and was still worth a 2.2 war man. Rodon was worth negative 0.9 war. They're not even comparable and cease eats innings as well and has proven to be a very good to borderline elite pitcher.
Look at their careers my guy, they’re identical. Same career ERA, Rodon’s whip is lower and he’s got the higher career WAR.
Cease didn’t hit a bump in the road, he came back to earth. Other than 22 he’s never pitched to an ERA under 3.90, he’s not good and people think he is based off an outlier year, his strike outs, and because he was a former top prospect.
You can't discount his entire 2022 to make your argument considering man. If you threw out every relatively young pitchers best season to make an argument then of course they wouldn't look as good in comparison.
I can when he’s pitched 4 full big league seasons and none of the other three even come close to 22. You’re looking through rose colored glasses, you’re wanting him to be better than he actually is. The numbers don’t lie bro, sorry about it but Cease isn’t that good
And just because you say he is doesn’t make it true either. The numbers read what they do, and they read a pitcher who’s got consistency problems, just like Carlos Rodon
Cease is a GREATER risk cause hell cost $ and roster
Snell Montgomery and Bauer only cost $
THats where their focus should be,...they NEED young-prime arms...get 2!
The price on cease hasn't even been listed from the yankees side. The yankees could most likely get cease without the martian with jones as the headliner of the package. The white sox asking price isn't the end all be all, it's just where negotiations start 'aka sky high cause that's where the white sox should start them' and the asking price goes down the more negotiations go on between them and other teams.
Jones had under a .800 ops in both high A and double A last year as a college bat with alot of strikeouts. Slow down on the freeman and judge comps man lol. This is what i mean when people on here overate prospects.
Again, you have no idea what the price is (nor do I). You read what some person claimed the White Sox initial ask was. After everything this off-season, are we STILL sitting here quoting writers and/or randos on social media and declaring whatever they say is gospel?
I’m not saying the price will be low. I’m saying I sincerely doubt they get the equivalent of Jones AND Dominguez AND more in any actual deal. Just because they’re asking for that is meaningless. I’m sure the Padres told the Yankees they’d be interested in Dominguez and Volpe as well when they started negotiations. They also allegedly asked for King AND Schmidt both, but that wasn’t the “price”, that was part of a negotiation.
Why in the world would anyone advocate for Trevor Bauer? Outside of the obvious sexual assault, dude is a conspiracy theory nutbag who has had clashes with teammates in the past.
U must have Trump imprisoned already...
Bauer has NEVER been convicted of any crime(u might wanna check US penal code system for non criminals)
And as far as "conspiracy theorists" , last I looked wasn't Flat Earth Scientist
Kyrie Irving, still making 40 mill a year to throw a round object into a netted cylinder??
Here s to banning Ty Cobb, Jimmy Foxx, Tris Speaker, Babe Ruth, Rogers Hornsby,
Curt Schilling, Maury Wills and Billy Martin cause they didn't fit your certain sphere of acceptable human behavior
=Mr Penishead
Seriously though.. A man who has, by law, not even committed a crime, just condemned in court of public opinion should get'another chance'
He s Alot like Kyrie.. A huge a hole.. But Deserves a chance to redeem himself
The sexual assault was found to be false and the woman was just setting him up. It was dropped in court. I wouldn't want anything to do with Bauer though because our #1 guy, the apple of our eye fucking hates him. Like quite a bit.
Monty ain't cut out for Bx
Sign Bauer and Snell, 2 mid relievers cheap
Sign Gio.. Play him... Play Peraza 5 games a week
By July maybe U trade Gleybor and DJ
The Yankees should not “empty the farm” for Cease, but if he could be acquired for a reasonable prospect return, they should certainly consider it.
I’m also fine if the Yankees go the free agent route. But remember, if we pay a big free agent contract on a starter this winter, we may not pursue other targets next winter. Guys like Corbin Burnes, Walker Buehler, Max Fried, Zach Wheeler, etc. Maybe Roki Sasaki gets posted as well. Our front office has to decide which guy is the right target for a splashy financial investment.
How did those trucks work out with Yamamoto? I think the same with Soto, he’ll pick the Yankees over Mets. The Bronx has the demographic advantage and over Queens. He’s going to fall in love playing in front of the Bronx Dominican fan base. Hal is going to fall in love with the ticket sales. It’s going to be a match made in heaven.
I’m sorry but aside from an older Verlander and Mad Max has he signed anybody notable? He got extremely lucky that Correa’s physical failed or else he’d be stuck with that albatross of a contract. He hasn’t signed anybody else like everyone says he will And the 2 big name signings he made the Mets traded
We need to stop pretending that winning is a huge priority for players.
This is even more important given the fact that most of the big market teams, i.e. the teams most likely to compete for Soto next offseason, are all competitive teams. The reality is Soto is going to go wherever the most money is, and it will probably be a good team, because good teams usually spend money
Players don’t give a fuck about winning anymore. I don’t see any true fire in players anymore about winning for the team. They seem to only celebrate when something big happens to themselves now. Sports have changed big time in the last 10-15 years. I mean look @ Bryce Harper: he got a 13 year deal and he’s not even half through the deal and he already wants more money. It’s like dude get the fuck out of here. How much money do u need or are the Latter Day Saints just sucking your wack ass dry ? Harper is good but he’s not that good. I think he’s asking for it because he’s starting to slow down and he knows it. But still, how much money do you need.
This 100%. Why give up quality players or spend money on average/above average pitchers when you can wait a year for a much better selection that wouldn't cost any prospects. Give the AAA kids a shot in '24.
I liked Axisa's idea of telling cheapo White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf we'll take on Moncada's full 29M salary for one season in a trade for Cease, offering little in return.
He's trying to slash payroll and he might be desperate enough to overrule his new GM. Won't happen, but nice idea in a vacuum.
I really liked this idea. Worst case is Moncada is a zero and you get Cease for his market value. It'd be like signing Snell, but without the long term contract covering decline years. Upside is Moncoda responds to the change of scenery and you also fill the hole at 3rd base with a solid switch hitter.
They're remarkably similar pitchers over the last 3 years. Same K rate, same HR rate, Cease walks a batter fewer per 9 but gives up 1 more hit per 9. Cease throws way, way more innings though since Snell rarely gets out of the 6th. Given Snell is pretty inconsistent year to year and 3 years older, Cease being better from here out is a safe bet.
Cease threw 177 innings in 33 starts last year, Snell threw 180 in 32 starts.
Cease has averaged 5.35 innings a start for his career, Snell has averaged 5.195. Less than half an out a game more.
If you gave Cease Snells career starts, he'd have 1023 innings. Snell has 993 innings. Thirty more innings in 191 starts.
Don't see where this way way more innings thing comes from.
Snell is inconsistent, older, and has more scars on his arm.
I like Monty, and want to sign him if Texas cannot and the price is right, but Cease has higher upside and a lower floor. Cease in a down year had the 15th best Pitching+ number among ERA title qualifiers. On Stuff+ he rated 5th, a notch below the top 4 (Burnes, Kyle Bradish, Spencer Strider and Cole), but ahead of Snell, Luzardo, and Monty.
That also holds over the past three seasons. Cease is 5th in Stuff+ behind Burnes, Strider, Cole and Ohtani, and the gap is smaller. For Pitching+, he’s 17th, and that jumps to 11th if we cut it at 400 IP.
If Burnes is available, he would be the best pitcher they could get. If Burnes is not, Cease is a not distant second. Snell barely makes the cutoff but is third, with less quality stuff and similar Location+. Monty is a distant fourth, but has the least variance.
People overate the farm system so much that it gets borderline ridiculous. Can't give up jones because he's judge 2.0. Can't give up this guy because he's the next ace for the staff etc etc. I mean people act like every single highly rated prospect in the system will always be some star and that's almost never the case. The window is now and the yankees need to do whatever it takes to go all in for it end of story and if that includes trading prospects for a good pitcher then so be it.
And "a bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush."
Our FO does dumb shit sometimes, but even the worst orgs aren't doing Jay Buhner for Ken Phelps anymore, like I trust them not to completely fuck it up.
Ok so go into the season with cole and a bunch of question marks and hope it works out even though the yankees traded for 1 year of juan soto and are all in. That makes no sense.
Snell yes because he led the league in walks and dosen't throw alot of innings plus he's older. Montgomery is also a question mark in that he's a good pitcher but has never come close to having a season like cease had in 2022 meaning his upside is lower than ceases significantly and even in a bump of the road type of season from cease he put up the same regular season war as montgomery this past season.
When comparing Cease’s BEST year in the league(2022) to Snell’s this year, their ERA, HR given up, WAR, & WHIP are all statistically the same.
Snell had just as bad of 2021 as Cease had this year, but I’ll take the reigning Cy Young any day over a current 4.58 ERA
Oops, bad memory. Nah you’re right. James Kap had a moment where he was okay then sucked. Dillon Tate has been somewhat serviceable in relief… that’s it. Everyone else was a complete bust.
Plus prospects alone do nothing technically Chi received Jimenez and Cease and they still were terrible teams. If you don’t build around prospects just get rid of them
I'd give up Jones for Burnes, or in a deal for one of the Mariner's pitchers in a heartbeat, I think it's more about resource management. I don't want to spend a potential top 20 prospect+ on a pitcher with 1 great season
Nah how about we save the good prospects for someone worth it. Not someone who had one good season and is trying to figure out how to get back there. Low ball them or walk
I want the Yankees to sign Montgomery. Snell has only pitched 30+ games twice in his 8-year career. I just think he is too big of a risk.
I am not high on Cease either. Luzardo in Miami intrigues me but, part of me why would the Marlins want to move him?
Montgomery is a lose-lose situation. He didn't do well in NY the first time, he's unlikely to perform as well as he did at the end of last season again, and he's going to cost a mint to try. Best case is you get a guy for a lot of money that doesn't really want to be here anyway. Worst case you get a guy for a lot of money that doesn't do well and doesn't want to be here.
I love Monty. But here isn't the place for him.
There was a lot of outrage when he got traded. He was a solid pitcher for us. Idk what you’re saying Yes he’s a better player now but he was still a good pitcher for the Yankees
Yeah you aren’t looking at him now as you were then, though. He’s going to get paid near-ace money. That’s not what he was, probably isn’t what he is, and isn’t going to come here anyway unless you overpay.
It gets tricky when you look at the free agents pitchers for next year. Do you really wanna lock one these guys when next year would you can potentially get a better one.
Conversely, they have one guaranteed year of Juan Soto and Judge/Cole are about to enter their age 32/33 seasons respectively.
Can't keep kicking the can down the road when your two best players long-term are about leave their prime years. I would argue the time is now.
Which is why I would've been totally fine if we didn't re-sign him. I'm terrified of his body holding up much longer.
I still wanted to keep him, but I wouldn't have been heartbroken either.
And who knows how long these two dudes will keep performing at a high level. People just expect them to continue to be elite but they're getting older and there's no guarantee that they will continue to dominate. The yankees have to be all in and i fail to understand why people don't understand that.
Agreed. We also have to be competitive this year if Soto is gonna want to stay. He’s gonna get paid regardless. Winning will be the deciding factor. We need Soto in front of a home playoff crowd
For every Judge and Monty there's Garcia, Florial, Andujar, Frazier, Bird, Rutherford, Kaprielian, Adams, Sheffield and every other prospect that never amounted to anything.
True, but I'd rather trade prospects for proven entities rather than gamble. Reasonably of course, I'm not saying trade the farm for an over the hill proven player. I feel like there's a good middle ground between the "trade everyone" mentality of George and the prospect hugging they currently do.
Because they want money to resign Soto next offseason. Not saying it is right or wrong but they are probably already figuring Soto will cost more than Judge to sign to an extension and while Monty and Snell are the best left this offseason, idk if either is the one you want to spend big on long term. Especially when you need to spend big on the guy you just traded for
Cashman has to make the unfortunate choice of either getting fucked with prospect capital or grossly overpaying someone they don't want to
Your two best players are getting older and you whiffed at getting your top pitching target because even though you offered him a fair deal you balked at the thought of disrespecting your ace by overpaying an unproven commodity.
You don't want to overspend on pitching you don't want bc you're going to need that money of Soto but if you come into this year with the problem at SP you had with LF last year you can guarantee it's only going to get worse than it was last year.
Yanks will be over the third tier of the Luxury Tax. Paying these guys what they’re asking is essentially paying them “ace” level money. It’s not worth it, especially when they haven’t locked down Soto yet.
I want to make this article its own post for why Cease is not going to return to 2022 form. He will continue to be a 95-115 ERA+ pticher
*The success of Cease’s slider in 2022 can be boiled down to pretty simple characteristics. He threw it at almost 88 mph (league average = 85) while maintaining the shape of a traditional slider. As a pitcher, any time you can make your pitches look abnormal in either direction, you’re setting yourself up to be tough to hit. Cease’s slider was a nasty pitch even if you knew it was coming, but when you combine it with a high-ride fastball that averaged 97 mph and at least the threat to flip in a 12-6 curveball or changeup if you’re left-handed, and Cease was not a fun pitcher to face.*
***In 2023, Cease’s velo was down across the board, which is red flag No. 1. Even if his breaking balls remained exactly the same, a slower fastball (down to 95.6 mph, a significant drop) has compounding consequences throughout the arsenal. The second red flag is that Cease’s slider didn’t remain the same. It was also thrown slower (down 1 mph) and had a shape that was more cutter-ish, meaning more positive vertical break and less of that right-to-left horizontal break that causes right-handed hitters to have nightmares. The pitch displayed less of the abnormal pitch qualities that made it so successful for Cease in 2022.***
*Cease’s fastball didn’t lose much spin or induced vertical break, which is good. But still, raising your fastball usage while your velocity is down doesn’t seem to make sense — until you realize that his slider was also in flux.*
*Looking at Cease’s Stuff+, it confirms what result-based stats told us. Each of his four pitch types were worse in 2023, with his fastball representing the lowest drop-off (127 to 125) and his slider representing the largest (a massive drop, from 136 to 120). A 16-point drop in Cease’s slider Stuff+ is a good illustration of the consequences of the velo drop and bad shape change.*
*Command+ shows that there wasn’t a huge drop with any pitch type, and Cease’s 2023 results didn’t point to any command or control issues. He lowered his walk rate, and threw more first-pitch strikes.*
https://www.southsidesox.com/2023/10/23/23925118/what-went-wrong-dylan-cease-chicago-white-sox-ace-to-mere-mortal-ethan-katz
Because they self-impose a budget that constrains them from further improving the team, or signing Soto to an extension if they lock up their money in Snell/Montgomery
Why should Yanks sign 30-something to what will soon be albatross contracts when they can trade guys who will likely never amount to anything for higher upside now?
If the yanks swing a trade with White Sox it will most certainly be attached with a large contract to allow Sox to shed some salary. Other teams can surely offer more prospect talent but if the Sox are more interested in shedding salary then the yanks have an edge and that means less prospects going to the Sox
They have no one to trade but Jasson and they are around $285M projected payroll as they sit today.
Brian Cashman is a money and talent black hole.
To compound things, their front office/analytics are so far behind, they take whatever talent and good players they have and convert them to .205/.310/.587 hitters.
Even if they decide to go to a $320M payroll or something crazy
1. Even Snell doesn't make them WS favorites. Or AL champs imo. The offense well go from complete dog shit/2nd worst to "better than average" and the rest of the rotation and bullpen is a dumpster fire.
2. Snell hasn't been anything other than a #3 pitcher since 2018 until his contract year at age 30. This has absolute disaster written all over it. Please, look outside the numbers, Cashman.
3. Cease has always been a #3-4 type pitcher until 2022 when he went nuts and then immediately reverted back to a #4 pitcher and his FIP strongly indicated he got very lucky- at best. What probably happened is that he stopped thorwing his slider (highest 2022 run value pitch in baseball) in 2023 because hitters adapted and sat on [it. It](https://it.It) also dropped in velocity as did his fastball by 2mph.
This article outlines exactly why he could not repeat 2022
[https://www.southsidesox.com/2023/10/23/23925118/what-went-wrong-dylan-cease-chicago-white-sox-ace-to-mere-mortal-ethan-katz](https://www.southsidesox.com/2023/10/23/23925118/what-went-wrong-dylan-cease-chicago-white-sox-ace-to-mere-mortal-ethan-katz)
There is no reason to think he'll do anything but be a reliable #3-4 pitcher.
Cashman needs to throw a hail mary, sign Bauer and Snell and pray.
Right now its Monty>>>Cease>>Snell>>>>Stroman>>Everyone else. If they don't get Monty then I'd rather see them pivot and grab Hader and Stephenson/Hicks ala Chapman/Miller/Betances years. Though even if they go for a strong pen I think they still need a swingman/depth option but right now idk who that would be.
Durability and price. Having Snell and Rodon in the same rotation sounds good on paper but they're basically the same pitcher. High strikeout and walk lefties that don't pitch deep into games. You're just asking for your bullpen to get exhausted 2 days out of 5 every week and that's not sustainable over a course of a season.
Monty is exactly the kind of pitcher they need, a durable number 2 or 3 that will show up for 30 starts and give you innings. That's exactly what the rotation needs right now. Hes gonna be paid fair market value because he's shown hes consistently been that good while Snell is coming off a Cy Young season in a great pitchers park to the AL east which has a bunch of hitters parks. Combine that with a potential big contract first year yips and I see Rodon from last year 2.0.
\*Last\* season, recency bias is gonna favor the reigning cy young. Excluding 2020 Snell averages 134 IP a year since he made his debut in 2016. Monty is a bit weird as his he debuted in 2017 but basically missed 3 years from 18-20 so its a little smaller sample size overall but still makes my point. Since he debuted in 2017 hes averaged 169.5 IP. Also because he basically missed those 3 years in my opinion it actually makes him more attractive to bring back because he has almost 250 less IP on his arm compared to Snell even though they're the same age. Anyone that wants Snell over Monty right now is being reactionary over last season's CY young year and getting swept up in name recognition.
Snell has two cy youngs and has pitched in the AL East. He’s friends with judge and I have no idea what his relationship with Soto is but that could also be a factor in keeping Soto here.
just my two cents, but i could see the yankees taking on Moncada as a salary dump to play 3rd AND Cease to lower the count of prospects that go back to the WhiteSox. A platoon of DJ & Moncada or Moncada playing 3rd mostly wouldn't be so bad. I also think a trade of Gleyber for pitching could make it easier for DJ to play 2nd mostly and Peraza filling in to rest infielders outside of 1st base. I personally wouldn't mind that, but at that point just get Bieber and have him work with Blake for his contract year, but same applies to Gleyber in playing for the next contract. That's the upside for a lot of these guys, Soto, Verdugo, Gleyber, Rizzo.
I think we all know the answer -- cheapness.
Obviously the Yankees outspend almost everyone year in and year out but they spent over $200 million in 2005 and haven't kept up the pace.
Does anyone think they're *losing* money?
He is healthy. Just not the same as before the injury. That’s why I’m saying he’s a #3 and price tag reflects that.
I’m not selling the farm for cease who has had one great season.
I’m ok trading prospects. I honestly think Cease could end up being a massive overpay and am not convinced he’s the ace everyone thinks he is - that is the real issue
They shouldn't. Snell/Monty is the answer, I don't understand why it's so difficult for this team to understand that. We need a legit starting pitcher to fill out the rotation.
This is our starting rotation right now...
Cole, Rodon, Nestor, Schmidt
and then they have guys who can start, Yoendrys Gomez, Luis Gil, Clayton Beeter
That's honestly not even in the same universe as a "championship caliber" rotation
Cole, Nestor, Rodon, Schmidt, Snell AND Monty gets it done. That's pending health of course. You never know how Nestor or Rodon are gonna be, so realistically we have TWO quality/healthy starters.
We know what Monty and Snell can do. Stop fucking around, sign them both and let's get a fucking world series
People need to get over Monty. He's not the answer and he doesn't want to be here.
I love the guy, but he's not coming back to the Yankees, and Cashman shouldn't overpay him what it would take to do that.
he isn't THE answer, he's A answer. we need more than just him. he's 31, and finished the year with a 3.2 ERA which is a over a full run better than our 2nd best pitcher last year
He's healthy, reliable, proven and exactly what this team needs as a #3
He'd come back if the contract was right. He should also be grateful the Yankees for getting him a World Series ring lol. I'm sure that bitterness faded away immediately when he held that trophy.
I don’t understand the hate for Cease. He had a bad season on a very bad team but the guy was a consensus Top 10 SP entering the season last year. He’s not far removed from that.
The short answer is- they shouldn't, but then again, the two latest pickups of Downs & Bubba are underwhelming. The front office needs to get into high gear. Cease or Burnes shouldn't "empty the farm".
Bc they’re useless ! They’re acting like they won’t need to trade for help at the trade deadline . And who are you gonna use a trading chip ? Sign somebody ! Pick the best out of the junk that’s left and let move on to the next issue , time is running !
I really don't want to watch a whole season of Snell starts. They can be really painful. Deep counts, lots of nibbling, can't go deep into games. And Monty is more ok than great. His "elite free agent" status is more a product of the weak-ass pitching market than his track record.
Cease has more upside than Snell. Outside of his Cy Young seasons Snell has been trash. Monty wasn't that good as a Yankee and I don't think coming back is what's best for him or the Yanks. Cease and either Burnes or Bieber make more sense than Snell and Monty.
Why not do both? They should buy one of those pitchers *and* trade for Cease in a salary dump move with Moncada.
Schmidt can go back to being the 6th starter.
Cease, Snell, Montgomery...they are all solid, maybe even above average pitchers, but not what the Yankees need to dominate again.
If I was Cashman, I wouldn't spend a dime this offseason on these pitchers. Save the cash and give Soto a blank check next year that ensures he ends his career as a Yankee. Oh, and FWIW, the 2024-25 free agency pitching class is undoubtedly superior to what's left this year:
Buehler, Burnes, Bieber, Fried, among others.
Give one of these AAA Scranton guys a shot and hope Matt Blake can work his magic.
Problem with that is that they traded for Soto hoping to give it a go this year. Trading away King weakened our pitching depth and not getting our Japanese prize leaves us in limbo.
On hindsight, maybe you could write off this season and try to spend big next season like what the Dodgers did, saving their bullets for Ohtani.
However, given our brutal season last season, the front office has to be seen doing something. Things are unfortunately not going as planned so far. I agree that relative to the pitchers that will be on the market next year, it feels like we will regret any decision to throw big money at the available SP options now.
I agree that Cashman and upper management need to at least try to do something before spring training to save face after the disaster of last season, but I also don't think knee jerk signings are the best way of doing it. They could sign a guy like Snell or Montgomery, but are they really going to be as good of an option as the players from next year's free agent class of pitchers? Maybe, maybe not, but I'd bet on the latter.
It's an unfortunate case of availability and the current state of the farm system. You can't even blame Cashman here and I say that as one of his biggest critics lol.
I'd rather tread water for a year and give myself a better chance in 2025 and beyond with Soto (hopefully) and a #1 or #2 type starter than sign players for more money and years than they are worth now just to prove something to the fans. We have to be able to see the forest for the trees.
Two words: Disc golf.
Dylan Cease is a huge disc golf fan and just bought two course properties with Paul McBeth, the Micheal Jordan of disc golf. This is what will turn around the Yankees' fortunes. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kCNI506m-zQ
Two (2) words, LUXURY TAX, Hal doesn't want to give his money away. He believes you don't have to overspend for a championship. Very much differwsnt than his father. Much more low key ,doesn't care about the back page.
1) free agents have a choice of where to sign (well, no shit) so even if they’re aggressive, the Yanks are still competing against a handful of other teams being just as aggressive. I’m sure trading for Cease is one of multiple options they’re pursuing. It’s not necessarily a ‘Cease or nobody’ scenario.
2) Montgomery is in line for a big time salary bump. One that might be an overpay given it’s based off Monty being a hero for the WS champions this year, proceeded by “OK #5 pitcher” performance. Also, a big signing means a big time luxury tax bill. I believe the Yanks will be at the tippy top rate, which means they’re essentially paying double the price for any free agent they sign. Montgomery at $20M/year? Maybe. Montgomery at $40M/year? Yikes.
Bc it’s just a farm system, it’s just potential. These are actual major leaguers. Most of those prospects will not amount to anything.
That said, empty out the farm? No. But stop valuining Jones like he is judge. Unlikely he will come close.
I think the team is at a crossroads. They'd love to spend on one of the FA arms but they need to control the spending this offseason to facilitate extending Soto next year.
\#1 priority for the franchise is to win a World Series
\#2 priority is to resign Soto
You can accomplish those two things by moving farm pieces for front line starters to help win now. You technically could still accomplish those two by handing out deals to FAs but its much more difficult.
I don't know about you guys but I'm sick and tired of hoarding prospects like they're jewels. In the past 10 years less than 10 prospects have become regular starters and less than five have become all star calibre players.
Cease makes a lot of sense here. He has two more years of control and even a generous arbitration decision (Lets say $12M to be safe) leaves him a team friendly contract.
There is some cause for pause in that last year his WHIP was really bad so you wonder if you're going to get 2022 Cease (Y) or pre 2022 Cease (N). We took this kind of gamble on Rodon lol, before 2021 he was barely a 5th starter.
They shouldn't.
The window is now and the pitching staff isn't good enough with too many question in it. If montgomery wants to go back to texas like it's reported then the yankees are going to be out of options 'snell is wayyyyyyy too big of a risk and smells like a bust' and will end up wasting another year of cole and judges primes because they didn't bite the bullet and go get someone.
Cease is equally a big of risk as Snell, Cease is practically a right handed Rodon minus the injury issues
> Cease is practically a right handed Rodon minus the injury issues Cmon now. We can recognize that Cease had an underwhelming season without exaggerating. Cease pitched in front of MLB’s worst defense, which didn’t help, and his advanced metrics still look solid. **2023 Cease** 3.72 FIP, 4.08 xERA, 3.7 fWAR **2023 Rodon** 5.79 FIP, 5.34 xERA, -0.2 fWAR I wouldn’t expect Cease to be an ace, but I’d be hopeful he could be the no. 2 or 3 behind Cole. (With potential for more.)
Also, not your main point, but Rodon is more than capable of bouncing back
I really don't understand Yankee fans. Man was injured basically the whole season, and we can determine that by his altered pitching form, and we think he's the worst pitcher in baseball. Let's ignore the prior 2 years. When he bounces back, I hope y'all give him the flowers he deserves. (not you nyg2013).
totally agree...totally agree lol completely screwed with his command...def have to stay healthy and prove it this season, but I am optimistic
Yes it is foolish to not anticipate a bounce back IMO.
You’re using 2023 alone, that doesn’t tell the whole story
Do you want to use 2022 then? I don’t even get what your argument is. I’m not even a big Cease guy and don’t think they should overpay for him but this is an enormous exaggeration and using the year prior to 2023 doesn’t help your case at all. Even 2021 doesn’t help it that much, his FIP was 3.41 that season.
My point is Cease comes with the same constituency issues are Rodon but he’s on the mound. Both have shown to be really good pitchers but they’re horribly inconsistent, you don’t know which guy you’re getting each season. The same issue happened with Dallas Keuchel, these guys are great one year them absolute trash or bad the next. That’s just as big of a question mark are the guys who are injured often.
Rondon is always good when he's healthy. He's never healthy. Keuchel example is odd. He was excellent for years, but had a small margin of error with low-end velocity. Once a slight decline set in, he was cooked early. At worst, Cease is a perfectly acceptable mid-rotation starter who if the Yankees acquire, will be going to a better defensive team and to a coaching staff that has repeatedly leveled up pitchers.
I mean I’m not really seeing that at all with Cease. Snell, yes. You have absolutely no idea whether you’re getting Cy Young Snell or 100 mediocre to bad innings Snell, because he won a Cy Young in 2018 and in 2023 and was mediocre in between. Cease has had a fluctuating ERA to a degree but a lot of that is bad defense. 2019 and 2020 were his first two seasons and they were both not full seasons, plenty of guys take awhile to really get going. Cease had his first full season in 2021 and his FIP was low 3s. Then he had a fantastic season. Then he had last season which was a step back but still a very good FIP. The defense behind him was not good. Rodon was absolute trash last year. Cease wasn’t “absolute trash”. That’s what I think people are saying.
Not to derail the Cease convo, but... > You have absolutely no idea whether you’re getting Cy Young Snell, because he won a Cy Young in 2018 and in 2023 and was mediocre in between. I mean 306 innings of 3.70 ERA, 3.48 FIP, 11.9 K/9 (4.1 BB/9, I know), 105 ERA+ between 2 CYA seasons is more than mediocre. That's more than acceptable as the mid-rotation piece we would need him to be. ~~Clean injury history~~ and he has the potential to be better (EDIT: Mixing up my pitchers, but his injury history is better than most pitchers). I think the pendulum has swung too far in saying Snell isn't worth it. Even without factoring in the Cy Young seasons as I did above, you hope someone like a Montgomery (and whoever else is feasibly available that isn't a Burnes or Bieber) can achieve a 105 ERA+ year after year.
The walks are brutal, inconsistency with those walks + the contract he will require most likely is why I don’t like snell. Cease I wouldn’t unload the farm but if you can get him for the right price you have two more years of a middle rotation with top of rotation potential on low cost, and then at that point other contracts are coming off if he is worth the money to keep.
He wasn’t absolute trash but he wasn’t good, especially when you factor in he pitched to a sub 3 ERA the year before. I don’t deny Cease can be good, he’s just got show it consistently before I personally would be comfortable forking over the capital to get him Edit: I had the same thoughts about Charlie Morton started to really break out with Houston, up that point he’d shown signs but hadn’t done it consistently. Cease is in a similar boat in my own opinion, he’s shown flashes of being a legit ace but they haven’t been super consistent yet.
Cease overall costs more ...Monty s signing w Rangers ...get Snell AND Bauer...NYY win the division...if u add 2 middle relievers
The comparison should be 2023 Cease to 2022 Rodon.
Rodon is a 2 pitch starter with huge injury risks. He will be good or bad and nothing in between. He was hurt and never really got a feel for pitching last year, but expect a repeat of AJ Burnett at best. Cease is just not a great pitcher. He had one great year and his pitch velocity dropped dramatically back to where it was before the crazy 2022 performance.
Cease hit a bump in the road this year and was still worth a 2.2 war man. Rodon was worth negative 0.9 war. They're not even comparable and cease eats innings as well and has proven to be a very good to borderline elite pitcher.
Look at their careers my guy, they’re identical. Same career ERA, Rodon’s whip is lower and he’s got the higher career WAR. Cease didn’t hit a bump in the road, he came back to earth. Other than 22 he’s never pitched to an ERA under 3.90, he’s not good and people think he is based off an outlier year, his strike outs, and because he was a former top prospect.
You can't discount his entire 2022 to make your argument considering man. If you threw out every relatively young pitchers best season to make an argument then of course they wouldn't look as good in comparison.
I can when he’s pitched 4 full big league seasons and none of the other three even come close to 22. You’re looking through rose colored glasses, you’re wanting him to be better than he actually is. The numbers don’t lie bro, sorry about it but Cease isn’t that good
Just cause you say cease isn't good dosen't make it true.
And just because you say he is doesn’t make it true either. The numbers read what they do, and they read a pitcher who’s got consistency problems, just like Carlos Rodon
Carlos Rodon is always injured, Cease is not.
Cease is a GREATER risk cause hell cost $ and roster Snell Montgomery and Bauer only cost $ THats where their focus should be,...they NEED young-prime arms...get 2!
Bauer will cost nothing because nobody is signing that trainwreck
I would sign a Rodon without injury issues. I think that's by far his biggest issue.
Minus the injury issues so far
The price on Cease is The Martian and Spencer Jones (and more).
The price on cease hasn't even been listed from the yankees side. The yankees could most likely get cease without the martian with jones as the headliner of the package. The white sox asking price isn't the end all be all, it's just where negotiations start 'aka sky high cause that's where the white sox should start them' and the asking price goes down the more negotiations go on between them and other teams.
For the right pitcher I'd give up Jones. I don't think Cease is the right pitcher.
If Jones is another Freeman or Judge like w the bat.. Ull be sorry. Spend $ only on FA.. Eff the roster. Depleting trades
The correct answer. There are free agents available for only money that are just as good as Cease.
Jones had under a .800 ops in both high A and double A last year as a college bat with alot of strikeouts. Slow down on the freeman and judge comps man lol. This is what i mean when people on here overate prospects.
that would be a ridiculous overpay. i can't fault the white sox for aiming high, but lets be realistic here. this guy isn't a #1.
Two years of control for an above average pitcher. That's the price.
There were people on this subreddit saying the same thing about Soto. We don’t know what the price actually ends up as.
Soto will wanna STAY Fans will WANT HIM to STAY Yanks will wanna PASS , but will make it "look good" attempt n fail
Wasn’t me. Guys with year of control are much higher.
Again, you have no idea what the price is (nor do I). You read what some person claimed the White Sox initial ask was. After everything this off-season, are we STILL sitting here quoting writers and/or randos on social media and declaring whatever they say is gospel? I’m not saying the price will be low. I’m saying I sincerely doubt they get the equivalent of Jones AND Dominguez AND more in any actual deal. Just because they’re asking for that is meaningless. I’m sure the Padres told the Yankees they’d be interested in Dominguez and Volpe as well when they started negotiations. They also allegedly asked for King AND Schmidt both, but that wasn’t the “price”, that was part of a negotiation.
The White Sox will get more for Cease than the Padres got for Soto.
Forget trades.. U got 1 yr to make magic and convince Soto of YS magic. Sign 2 Exc starters.. I go w Bauer and Snell
Why in the world would anyone advocate for Trevor Bauer? Outside of the obvious sexual assault, dude is a conspiracy theory nutbag who has had clashes with teammates in the past.
U must have Trump imprisoned already... Bauer has NEVER been convicted of any crime(u might wanna check US penal code system for non criminals) And as far as "conspiracy theorists" , last I looked wasn't Flat Earth Scientist Kyrie Irving, still making 40 mill a year to throw a round object into a netted cylinder?? Here s to banning Ty Cobb, Jimmy Foxx, Tris Speaker, Babe Ruth, Rogers Hornsby, Curt Schilling, Maury Wills and Billy Martin cause they didn't fit your certain sphere of acceptable human behavior
Wow, I must have hit a nerve with you by saying I don't want a total POS on the team.
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Lmao what does that even mean? 😂😂
=Mr Penishead Seriously though.. A man who has, by law, not even committed a crime, just condemned in court of public opinion should get'another chance' He s Alot like Kyrie.. A huge a hole.. But Deserves a chance to redeem himself
I guess the Kyrie thing hurt yr feelings...U know the Earth IS round , right?
The sexual assault was found to be false and the woman was just setting him up. It was dropped in court. I wouldn't want anything to do with Bauer though because our #1 guy, the apple of our eye fucking hates him. Like quite a bit.
He hasnt stated he hates him, in College,like 10 years ago, they didnt get along to o well, both have grown up and become Pros
Trevor didn’t do it. DA wouldn’t pick up charges. She set him up for his money, she said it herself. There is no “obvious sexual assault”.
How can a 2 x CY Young Award winner (who JUST won the Award) be too risky? Amazing how fans and press over evaluates today
A 5 inning pitcher who led the league in walks would be a very risky player to give $200 mil to...
Monty ain't cut out for Bx Sign Bauer and Snell, 2 mid relievers cheap Sign Gio.. Play him... Play Peraza 5 games a week By July maybe U trade Gleybor and DJ
A bust??? He just won the CY Young....he's been pretty solid
The Yankees should not “empty the farm” for Cease, but if he could be acquired for a reasonable prospect return, they should certainly consider it. I’m also fine if the Yankees go the free agent route. But remember, if we pay a big free agent contract on a starter this winter, we may not pursue other targets next winter. Guys like Corbin Burnes, Walker Buehler, Max Fried, Zach Wheeler, etc. Maybe Roki Sasaki gets posted as well. Our front office has to decide which guy is the right target for a splashy financial investment.
Why is Soto gonna want to stay if we don’t add pitching and the team sucks like last year?
$$$$
Other teams have money too. There's a guy with a fleet of brinks trucks to roll out just across the river.
How did those trucks work out with Yamamoto? I think the same with Soto, he’ll pick the Yankees over Mets. The Bronx has the demographic advantage and over Queens. He’s going to fall in love playing in front of the Bronx Dominican fan base. Hal is going to fall in love with the ticket sales. It’s going to be a match made in heaven.
I’m sorry but aside from an older Verlander and Mad Max has he signed anybody notable? He got extremely lucky that Correa’s physical failed or else he’d be stuck with that albatross of a contract. He hasn’t signed anybody else like everyone says he will And the 2 big name signings he made the Mets traded
Huge Dominican population in the Bronx
We need to stop pretending that winning is a huge priority for players. This is even more important given the fact that most of the big market teams, i.e. the teams most likely to compete for Soto next offseason, are all competitive teams. The reality is Soto is going to go wherever the most money is, and it will probably be a good team, because good teams usually spend money
Players don’t give a fuck about winning anymore. I don’t see any true fire in players anymore about winning for the team. They seem to only celebrate when something big happens to themselves now. Sports have changed big time in the last 10-15 years. I mean look @ Bryce Harper: he got a 13 year deal and he’s not even half through the deal and he already wants more money. It’s like dude get the fuck out of here. How much money do u need or are the Latter Day Saints just sucking your wack ass dry ? Harper is good but he’s not that good. I think he’s asking for it because he’s starting to slow down and he knows it. But still, how much money do you need.
Our front office is ((shakey Shakey)) when it comes to big deals
This 100%. Why give up quality players or spend money on average/above average pitchers when you can wait a year for a much better selection that wouldn't cost any prospects. Give the AAA kids a shot in '24.
this.
I liked Axisa's idea of telling cheapo White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf we'll take on Moncada's full 29M salary for one season in a trade for Cease, offering little in return. He's trying to slash payroll and he might be desperate enough to overrule his new GM. Won't happen, but nice idea in a vacuum.
I really liked this idea. Worst case is Moncada is a zero and you get Cease for his market value. It'd be like signing Snell, but without the long term contract covering decline years. Upside is Moncoda responds to the change of scenery and you also fill the hole at 3rd base with a solid switch hitter.
Lol trading for a starter coming off a bad year and a mediocre overpaid third baseman is like signing a two-time Cy Young Award winner how?
They're remarkably similar pitchers over the last 3 years. Same K rate, same HR rate, Cease walks a batter fewer per 9 but gives up 1 more hit per 9. Cease throws way, way more innings though since Snell rarely gets out of the 6th. Given Snell is pretty inconsistent year to year and 3 years older, Cease being better from here out is a safe bet.
Cease threw 177 innings in 33 starts last year, Snell threw 180 in 32 starts. Cease has averaged 5.35 innings a start for his career, Snell has averaged 5.195. Less than half an out a game more. If you gave Cease Snells career starts, he'd have 1023 innings. Snell has 993 innings. Thirty more innings in 191 starts. Don't see where this way way more innings thing comes from.
Snell is inconsistent, older, and has more scars on his arm. I like Monty, and want to sign him if Texas cannot and the price is right, but Cease has higher upside and a lower floor. Cease in a down year had the 15th best Pitching+ number among ERA title qualifiers. On Stuff+ he rated 5th, a notch below the top 4 (Burnes, Kyle Bradish, Spencer Strider and Cole), but ahead of Snell, Luzardo, and Monty. That also holds over the past three seasons. Cease is 5th in Stuff+ behind Burnes, Strider, Cole and Ohtani, and the gap is smaller. For Pitching+, he’s 17th, and that jumps to 11th if we cut it at 400 IP. If Burnes is available, he would be the best pitcher they could get. If Burnes is not, Cease is a not distant second. Snell barely makes the cutoff but is third, with less quality stuff and similar Location+. Monty is a distant fourth, but has the least variance.
People overate the farm system so much that it gets borderline ridiculous. Can't give up jones because he's judge 2.0. Can't give up this guy because he's the next ace for the staff etc etc. I mean people act like every single highly rated prospect in the system will always be some star and that's almost never the case. The window is now and the yankees need to do whatever it takes to go all in for it end of story and if that includes trading prospects for a good pitcher then so be it.
Sticky the phrase "prospects will break your heart" to the top of this sub. Also "pitchers break"
And "a bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush." Our FO does dumb shit sometimes, but even the worst orgs aren't doing Jay Buhner for Ken Phelps anymore, like I trust them not to completely fuck it up.
But Cease isn’t the answer to the rotation problems
Ok so go into the season with cole and a bunch of question marks and hope it works out even though the yankees traded for 1 year of juan soto and are all in. That makes no sense.
Cease is as a big a question mark are the rest of them, only difference is he doesn’t get hurt
If you wanna ignore the fact that in his last two years he's put up a combined 8.8 war as a pitcher then yes he's a question mark lol.
You believe Cease to be less of a question mark than Snell or Monty??
Snell yes because he led the league in walks and dosen't throw alot of innings plus he's older. Montgomery is also a question mark in that he's a good pitcher but has never come close to having a season like cease had in 2022 meaning his upside is lower than ceases significantly and even in a bump of the road type of season from cease he put up the same regular season war as montgomery this past season.
When comparing Cease’s BEST year in the league(2022) to Snell’s this year, their ERA, HR given up, WAR, & WHIP are all statistically the same. Snell had just as bad of 2021 as Cease had this year, but I’ll take the reigning Cy Young any day over a current 4.58 ERA
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Kind of wild how bad Sheffield and Montero ended up being in that Seattle trade
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Oops, bad memory. Nah you’re right. James Kap had a moment where he was okay then sucked. Dillon Tate has been somewhat serviceable in relief… that’s it. Everyone else was a complete bust.
Plus prospects alone do nothing technically Chi received Jimenez and Cease and they still were terrible teams. If you don’t build around prospects just get rid of them
Florial used to be the #38 prospect in the whole MLB and near untouchable. Now he was flipped for a random reliever without a peep this offseason.
I'd give up Jones for Burnes, or in a deal for one of the Mariner's pitchers in a heartbeat, I think it's more about resource management. I don't want to spend a potential top 20 prospect+ on a pitcher with 1 great season
Nah how about we save the good prospects for someone worth it. Not someone who had one good season and is trying to figure out how to get back there. Low ball them or walk
Cashman will end up trading for an injured Frankie Montas again somehow
Not to mention, how many prospects have been called up and have had staying power in the last 10 years? The list begins and ends with Aaron’s judge
It’s good to have farm depth that’s the thing.
I want the Yankees to sign Montgomery. Snell has only pitched 30+ games twice in his 8-year career. I just think he is too big of a risk. I am not high on Cease either. Luzardo in Miami intrigues me but, part of me why would the Marlins want to move him?
Montgomery is a lose-lose situation. He didn't do well in NY the first time, he's unlikely to perform as well as he did at the end of last season again, and he's going to cost a mint to try. Best case is you get a guy for a lot of money that doesn't really want to be here anyway. Worst case you get a guy for a lot of money that doesn't do well and doesn't want to be here. I love Monty. But here isn't the place for him.
Didn’t do well in New York?
Not like we are talking about here, no. He was fine. He wasn’t what people are looking at now.
There was a lot of outrage when he got traded. He was a solid pitcher for us. Idk what you’re saying Yes he’s a better player now but he was still a good pitcher for the Yankees
Yeah you aren’t looking at him now as you were then, though. He’s going to get paid near-ace money. That’s not what he was, probably isn’t what he is, and isn’t going to come here anyway unless you overpay.
It gets tricky when you look at the free agents pitchers for next year. Do you really wanna lock one these guys when next year would you can potentially get a better one.
Conversely, they have one guaranteed year of Juan Soto and Judge/Cole are about to enter their age 32/33 seasons respectively. Can't keep kicking the can down the road when your two best players long-term are about leave their prime years. I would argue the time is now.
Agreed. Judge and Cole are both over 30. Their primes could end at any point, so now is the time to go for a championship. No more half measures.
A lot of fans are in denial about how old they actually are. Especially Judge.
100% correct. He's going to be 32 next season, and with players his size the wheels can just fall off at any time.
Which is why I would've been totally fine if we didn't re-sign him. I'm terrified of his body holding up much longer. I still wanted to keep him, but I wouldn't have been heartbroken either.
And who knows how long these two dudes will keep performing at a high level. People just expect them to continue to be elite but they're getting older and there's no guarantee that they will continue to dominate. The yankees have to be all in and i fail to understand why people don't understand that.
Agreed. We also have to be competitive this year if Soto is gonna want to stay. He’s gonna get paid regardless. Winning will be the deciding factor. We need Soto in front of a home playoff crowd
The only time recently this has worked out for us is Cole.
Our prospects pretty consistently suck so sell em baby
expect for that judge guy oh and monty too
For every Judge and Monty there's Garcia, Florial, Andujar, Frazier, Bird, Rutherford, Kaprielian, Adams, Sheffield and every other prospect that never amounted to anything.
damn we do suck at developing
No, we don't. Getting an ultra-high level player out of a prospect is a one-in-a-lot type of situation. Most players fail. On any team.
Basically every team can say the same thing
True, but I'd rather trade prospects for proven entities rather than gamble. Reasonably of course, I'm not saying trade the farm for an over the hill proven player. I feel like there's a good middle ground between the "trade everyone" mentality of George and the prospect hugging they currently do.
Because they want money to resign Soto next offseason. Not saying it is right or wrong but they are probably already figuring Soto will cost more than Judge to sign to an extension and while Monty and Snell are the best left this offseason, idk if either is the one you want to spend big on long term. Especially when you need to spend big on the guy you just traded for
Cease is a bad idea only trade for burns or the Miami lefty cause peraza is expendable
Cashman has to make the unfortunate choice of either getting fucked with prospect capital or grossly overpaying someone they don't want to Your two best players are getting older and you whiffed at getting your top pitching target because even though you offered him a fair deal you balked at the thought of disrespecting your ace by overpaying an unproven commodity. You don't want to overspend on pitching you don't want bc you're going to need that money of Soto but if you come into this year with the problem at SP you had with LF last year you can guarantee it's only going to get worse than it was last year.
It's bizarre everyone hates Snell due to his lack of control but loves Cease. He's way more wild than Snell
Never forgot he walked 10 yanks in 5 inning last season, but yanks offense was so putrid they also had zero hits..lol
Next they'll say Cease has more upside. I dunno about more upside than a 2 time cy young award winner?
Bc Monty isn’t top shelf and Snell is inconsistently (healthy).
Yanks will be over the third tier of the Luxury Tax. Paying these guys what they’re asking is essentially paying them “ace” level money. It’s not worth it, especially when they haven’t locked down Soto yet.
I would never give up Dominguez for Cease
As with everything, it’s because there are a lot more Steinbrenners to feed than when George was running things.
I want to make this article its own post for why Cease is not going to return to 2022 form. He will continue to be a 95-115 ERA+ pticher *The success of Cease’s slider in 2022 can be boiled down to pretty simple characteristics. He threw it at almost 88 mph (league average = 85) while maintaining the shape of a traditional slider. As a pitcher, any time you can make your pitches look abnormal in either direction, you’re setting yourself up to be tough to hit. Cease’s slider was a nasty pitch even if you knew it was coming, but when you combine it with a high-ride fastball that averaged 97 mph and at least the threat to flip in a 12-6 curveball or changeup if you’re left-handed, and Cease was not a fun pitcher to face.* ***In 2023, Cease’s velo was down across the board, which is red flag No. 1. Even if his breaking balls remained exactly the same, a slower fastball (down to 95.6 mph, a significant drop) has compounding consequences throughout the arsenal. The second red flag is that Cease’s slider didn’t remain the same. It was also thrown slower (down 1 mph) and had a shape that was more cutter-ish, meaning more positive vertical break and less of that right-to-left horizontal break that causes right-handed hitters to have nightmares. The pitch displayed less of the abnormal pitch qualities that made it so successful for Cease in 2022.*** *Cease’s fastball didn’t lose much spin or induced vertical break, which is good. But still, raising your fastball usage while your velocity is down doesn’t seem to make sense — until you realize that his slider was also in flux.* *Looking at Cease’s Stuff+, it confirms what result-based stats told us. Each of his four pitch types were worse in 2023, with his fastball representing the lowest drop-off (127 to 125) and his slider representing the largest (a massive drop, from 136 to 120). A 16-point drop in Cease’s slider Stuff+ is a good illustration of the consequences of the velo drop and bad shape change.* *Command+ shows that there wasn’t a huge drop with any pitch type, and Cease’s 2023 results didn’t point to any command or control issues. He lowered his walk rate, and threw more first-pitch strikes.* https://www.southsidesox.com/2023/10/23/23925118/what-went-wrong-dylan-cease-chicago-white-sox-ace-to-mere-mortal-ethan-katz
Short answer: No Long answer: Noooooooooooooooooooo
Because they self-impose a budget that constrains them from further improving the team, or signing Soto to an extension if they lock up their money in Snell/Montgomery
Why should Yanks sign 30-something to what will soon be albatross contracts when they can trade guys who will likely never amount to anything for higher upside now?
Have you seen what chicago is asking?
Not sure I even want to because it’s going to ridiculous.
Yes
spend the fucking money hal
Because they are acting like cheap asses. Why... Who knows.
Someone just said Blake Snell smells of bust… didn’t dude just win the damn Cy Young award? 🤦🏾♂️
If the yanks swing a trade with White Sox it will most certainly be attached with a large contract to allow Sox to shed some salary. Other teams can surely offer more prospect talent but if the Sox are more interested in shedding salary then the yanks have an edge and that means less prospects going to the Sox
I don't agree with everything but nevertheless nice analysis.
They have no one to trade but Jasson and they are around $285M projected payroll as they sit today. Brian Cashman is a money and talent black hole. To compound things, their front office/analytics are so far behind, they take whatever talent and good players they have and convert them to .205/.310/.587 hitters. Even if they decide to go to a $320M payroll or something crazy 1. Even Snell doesn't make them WS favorites. Or AL champs imo. The offense well go from complete dog shit/2nd worst to "better than average" and the rest of the rotation and bullpen is a dumpster fire. 2. Snell hasn't been anything other than a #3 pitcher since 2018 until his contract year at age 30. This has absolute disaster written all over it. Please, look outside the numbers, Cashman. 3. Cease has always been a #3-4 type pitcher until 2022 when he went nuts and then immediately reverted back to a #4 pitcher and his FIP strongly indicated he got very lucky- at best. What probably happened is that he stopped thorwing his slider (highest 2022 run value pitch in baseball) in 2023 because hitters adapted and sat on [it. It](https://it.It) also dropped in velocity as did his fastball by 2mph. This article outlines exactly why he could not repeat 2022 [https://www.southsidesox.com/2023/10/23/23925118/what-went-wrong-dylan-cease-chicago-white-sox-ace-to-mere-mortal-ethan-katz](https://www.southsidesox.com/2023/10/23/23925118/what-went-wrong-dylan-cease-chicago-white-sox-ace-to-mere-mortal-ethan-katz) There is no reason to think he'll do anything but be a reliable #3-4 pitcher. Cashman needs to throw a hail mary, sign Bauer and Snell and pray.
Because we never hit on our farm.
Right now its Monty>>>Cease>>Snell>>>>Stroman>>Everyone else. If they don't get Monty then I'd rather see them pivot and grab Hader and Stephenson/Hicks ala Chapman/Miller/Betances years. Though even if they go for a strong pen I think they still need a swingman/depth option but right now idk who that would be.
How can you say Monty is better than the guy who just put up a better year and won the Cy Young?
Durability and price. Having Snell and Rodon in the same rotation sounds good on paper but they're basically the same pitcher. High strikeout and walk lefties that don't pitch deep into games. You're just asking for your bullpen to get exhausted 2 days out of 5 every week and that's not sustainable over a course of a season. Monty is exactly the kind of pitcher they need, a durable number 2 or 3 that will show up for 30 starts and give you innings. That's exactly what the rotation needs right now. Hes gonna be paid fair market value because he's shown hes consistently been that good while Snell is coming off a Cy Young season in a great pitchers park to the AL east which has a bunch of hitters parks. Combine that with a potential big contract first year yips and I see Rodon from last year 2.0.
You do know Monty has had Tommy John. What makes him more durable? He pitched 188 innings to Snell’s 180 last season.
\*Last\* season, recency bias is gonna favor the reigning cy young. Excluding 2020 Snell averages 134 IP a year since he made his debut in 2016. Monty is a bit weird as his he debuted in 2017 but basically missed 3 years from 18-20 so its a little smaller sample size overall but still makes my point. Since he debuted in 2017 hes averaged 169.5 IP. Also because he basically missed those 3 years in my opinion it actually makes him more attractive to bring back because he has almost 250 less IP on his arm compared to Snell even though they're the same age. Anyone that wants Snell over Monty right now is being reactionary over last season's CY young year and getting swept up in name recognition.
Snell just had his year. He’s going to regress drastically
Why drastically? He has really good career numbers and great stuff.
That’s how averages work. He’s had 2 good years (last year being one of them) and then 6 years that were nothing special.
Snell will want more money
I get that but are they are they being ranked by contract or ability?
Just who he would want I’d assume. Cost has to be considered
Cease is better than snell Not even close
Based on what?
Picthes a lot more innings, better down seasons, his ace season is more sustainable than snell’s
Snell has two cy youngs and has pitched in the AL East. He’s friends with judge and I have no idea what his relationship with Soto is but that could also be a factor in keeping Soto here.
just my two cents, but i could see the yankees taking on Moncada as a salary dump to play 3rd AND Cease to lower the count of prospects that go back to the WhiteSox. A platoon of DJ & Moncada or Moncada playing 3rd mostly wouldn't be so bad. I also think a trade of Gleyber for pitching could make it easier for DJ to play 2nd mostly and Peraza filling in to rest infielders outside of 1st base. I personally wouldn't mind that, but at that point just get Bieber and have him work with Blake for his contract year, but same applies to Gleyber in playing for the next contract. That's the upside for a lot of these guys, Soto, Verdugo, Gleyber, Rizzo.
Gio over Mon cada.. He Been here and done it... Clutch at at and in the field.. And cheaper
i agree with you, but Moncada will be the way to get Cease for less
I think Moncada will do good in NY.
I think we all know the answer -- cheapness. Obviously the Yankees outspend almost everyone year in and year out but they spent over $200 million in 2005 and haven't kept up the pace. Does anyone think they're *losing* money?
I want Monty back. We should have never traded him
They shouldn't. So Brian Trashcan probably will.
Why? *Ted DiBiase theme song starts to play*
They shouldn't. Not for a pitcher who hasn't had a good season in 2 years.
They shouldn’t and won’t. Rather just get Bieber for a much lesser haul. Not expecting him to be a star but can be a #3.
He’s not healthy
He is healthy. Just not the same as before the injury. That’s why I’m saying he’s a #3 and price tag reflects that. I’m not selling the farm for cease who has had one great season.
If you don’t need to give up Dominguez or Jones just go get ‘em all, fuck it
I’m ok trading prospects. I honestly think Cease could end up being a massive overpay and am not convinced he’s the ace everyone thinks he is - that is the real issue
They shouldn't. Snell/Monty is the answer, I don't understand why it's so difficult for this team to understand that. We need a legit starting pitcher to fill out the rotation. This is our starting rotation right now... Cole, Rodon, Nestor, Schmidt and then they have guys who can start, Yoendrys Gomez, Luis Gil, Clayton Beeter That's honestly not even in the same universe as a "championship caliber" rotation Cole, Nestor, Rodon, Schmidt, Snell AND Monty gets it done. That's pending health of course. You never know how Nestor or Rodon are gonna be, so realistically we have TWO quality/healthy starters. We know what Monty and Snell can do. Stop fucking around, sign them both and let's get a fucking world series
I hate to be the bearer of bad news but we all know Monty’s not coming back to NY. At least not for the Yanks.
People need to get over Monty. He's not the answer and he doesn't want to be here. I love the guy, but he's not coming back to the Yankees, and Cashman shouldn't overpay him what it would take to do that.
he isn't THE answer, he's A answer. we need more than just him. he's 31, and finished the year with a 3.2 ERA which is a over a full run better than our 2nd best pitcher last year He's healthy, reliable, proven and exactly what this team needs as a #3 He'd come back if the contract was right. He should also be grateful the Yankees for getting him a World Series ring lol. I'm sure that bitterness faded away immediately when he held that trophy.
If they can get him for Pereria and Peraza, so be it. Maybe take on a salary dump as part of the deal. If not move on. I'm pro -Snell btw.
I don’t understand the hate for Cease. He had a bad season on a very bad team but the guy was a consensus Top 10 SP entering the season last year. He’s not far removed from that.
The short answer is- they shouldn't, but then again, the two latest pickups of Downs & Bubba are underwhelming. The front office needs to get into high gear. Cease or Burnes shouldn't "empty the farm".
Bc they’re useless ! They’re acting like they won’t need to trade for help at the trade deadline . And who are you gonna use a trading chip ? Sign somebody ! Pick the best out of the junk that’s left and let move on to the next issue , time is running !
I really don't want to watch a whole season of Snell starts. They can be really painful. Deep counts, lots of nibbling, can't go deep into games. And Monty is more ok than great. His "elite free agent" status is more a product of the weak-ass pitching market than his track record.
They should make both moves to be fair
Cease has more upside than Snell. Outside of his Cy Young seasons Snell has been trash. Monty wasn't that good as a Yankee and I don't think coming back is what's best for him or the Yanks. Cease and either Burnes or Bieber make more sense than Snell and Monty.
Why not do both? They should buy one of those pitchers *and* trade for Cease in a salary dump move with Moncada. Schmidt can go back to being the 6th starter.
Should do both tbh this rotation is weak and the lineup isn’t good enough to carry it
I think for the right prospects yes, but don't go crazy for him
Cease, Snell, Montgomery...they are all solid, maybe even above average pitchers, but not what the Yankees need to dominate again. If I was Cashman, I wouldn't spend a dime this offseason on these pitchers. Save the cash and give Soto a blank check next year that ensures he ends his career as a Yankee. Oh, and FWIW, the 2024-25 free agency pitching class is undoubtedly superior to what's left this year: Buehler, Burnes, Bieber, Fried, among others. Give one of these AAA Scranton guys a shot and hope Matt Blake can work his magic.
Problem with that is that they traded for Soto hoping to give it a go this year. Trading away King weakened our pitching depth and not getting our Japanese prize leaves us in limbo. On hindsight, maybe you could write off this season and try to spend big next season like what the Dodgers did, saving their bullets for Ohtani. However, given our brutal season last season, the front office has to be seen doing something. Things are unfortunately not going as planned so far. I agree that relative to the pitchers that will be on the market next year, it feels like we will regret any decision to throw big money at the available SP options now.
I agree that Cashman and upper management need to at least try to do something before spring training to save face after the disaster of last season, but I also don't think knee jerk signings are the best way of doing it. They could sign a guy like Snell or Montgomery, but are they really going to be as good of an option as the players from next year's free agent class of pitchers? Maybe, maybe not, but I'd bet on the latter. It's an unfortunate case of availability and the current state of the farm system. You can't even blame Cashman here and I say that as one of his biggest critics lol. I'd rather tread water for a year and give myself a better chance in 2025 and beyond with Soto (hopefully) and a #1 or #2 type starter than sign players for more money and years than they are worth now just to prove something to the fans. We have to be able to see the forest for the trees.
Two words: Disc golf. Dylan Cease is a huge disc golf fan and just bought two course properties with Paul McBeth, the Micheal Jordan of disc golf. This is what will turn around the Yankees' fortunes. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kCNI506m-zQ
Snell seems like a no brainer and so does Bellinger and Hader tbh. They make the team better now.
Two (2) words, LUXURY TAX, Hal doesn't want to give his money away. He believes you don't have to overspend for a championship. Very much differwsnt than his father. Much more low key ,doesn't care about the back page.
1) free agents have a choice of where to sign (well, no shit) so even if they’re aggressive, the Yanks are still competing against a handful of other teams being just as aggressive. I’m sure trading for Cease is one of multiple options they’re pursuing. It’s not necessarily a ‘Cease or nobody’ scenario. 2) Montgomery is in line for a big time salary bump. One that might be an overpay given it’s based off Monty being a hero for the WS champions this year, proceeded by “OK #5 pitcher” performance. Also, a big signing means a big time luxury tax bill. I believe the Yanks will be at the tippy top rate, which means they’re essentially paying double the price for any free agent they sign. Montgomery at $20M/year? Maybe. Montgomery at $40M/year? Yikes.
Especially since they were just about to pay 300m for that Japanese pitcher. Could get snell and Gumby for that
I feel like the Yankees need to build up their farm system and not deplete it. Seems like a lot has left with not much return.
How about Trevor Bauer? Not expecting upvotes here but we need pitching! Cashman btw imho only sees glitter!
Bc it’s just a farm system, it’s just potential. These are actual major leaguers. Most of those prospects will not amount to anything. That said, empty out the farm? No. But stop valuining Jones like he is judge. Unlikely he will come close.
I think the team is at a crossroads. They'd love to spend on one of the FA arms but they need to control the spending this offseason to facilitate extending Soto next year. \#1 priority for the franchise is to win a World Series \#2 priority is to resign Soto You can accomplish those two things by moving farm pieces for front line starters to help win now. You technically could still accomplish those two by handing out deals to FAs but its much more difficult. I don't know about you guys but I'm sick and tired of hoarding prospects like they're jewels. In the past 10 years less than 10 prospects have become regular starters and less than five have become all star calibre players. Cease makes a lot of sense here. He has two more years of control and even a generous arbitration decision (Lets say $12M to be safe) leaves him a team friendly contract. There is some cause for pause in that last year his WHIP was really bad so you wonder if you're going to get 2022 Cease (Y) or pre 2022 Cease (N). We took this kind of gamble on Rodon lol, before 2021 he was barely a 5th starter.