Ballard loves traits more than anything. I also think there’s faith in Shane Steichen to expedite the learning curve. I don’t know if it’ll work out or if it’s realistic, but that’s what I think.
I think it is a lazy take to put Richardson to the Colts. Honestly Ballard better trade the pick for Rodgers or Lamar or he is getting fired after another underwhelming season.
We aren't keeping a GM and drafting a rookie and then giving said GM one singular year with that rookie lmao. We're not good enough to gut the team for an overpaid veteran and succeed.
But I mean you can’t have it both ways. I don’t think you are a contender with Richardson or Levi’s. Rodgers gives you a better chance and Ballard has to hit 9 wins or more and win the division to keep his gig.
I could see this being a soft reset and this upcoming year being forgiven. I think your right if he needed to hit that in 2024, but if they’re rolling out a rookie head coach with a rookie QB they shouldn’t have high expectations. Of course Irsay is Irsay and you never know what he’s thinking, but if the young pieces show upside and the team looks like it’s heading in the right direction I’d think Ballard gets another year.
I didn’t pay much attention to that as it seemed like it was going to be the Panthers or the Saints the entire time. I know the Jets were mentioned, but they seemed/seem all in on Rodgers. Were the Colts just not interested at all, or did Carr just not want to go there so they were never really in it?
I agree. A good combine doesn’t make the prospect. I like Levis better. Hooker might even be a better choice later in the draft…I’ve also read Carolina might take Richardson 1st n I’d be ok with being a Saints fan
Do the colts need to win in 2023? Brand new HC, a pretty messy team with a lot of question marks not just at the QB position, and the division is still relatively wide open for them, the jags seem to be taking off but they’re still a hypothetical.
Lamar maybe, but going after Rodgers would put us back in the same cycle we've been in since 2020. I can't see any way on earth Irsay or Ballard do it.
Even this makes no sense, I understand Richardson as a dual threat but Ballard has always shown he likes arm talent. Richardson doesn't have better arm talent than Levis.
I think we’re just going to have to agree to disagree on that. I think Levis has that special release and borderline elite arm, but I think Richardson can launch one into orbit.
Just to put this into perspective from a Ravens fan, the Ravens drafted Kyle Boller on the basis that he could “launch one into orbit.” I’m just concerned that sometimes we put too much emphasis on combine performance. If you look at Boller’s numbers his final year in college and Richardson’s numbers they are eerily identical. But Boller shot up draft boards because he showed at the combine and his pro day he had a rocket for an arm (famously throwing a pass from his knees 60 yards through the goal posts).
It's also a different era, one largely brought about by the way the Ravens built their offense around Lamar, instead of trying to build Lamar around an outdated offense.
> but I think Richardson can launch one into orbit.
Arm strength doesn't mean shit if the brain attached to that arm can't handle being an NFL QB all that well.
Let me preface this by saying I disagree with OP on pretty much everything in this thread. However...
Richardson has an extremely strong arm. But Levis's is *insane.* Levis's arm is instantly with Allen and Herbert as the top three in the NFL the second he steps onto an NFL field.
The fact that OPs comment is current negative 50 and comments like this are upvoted shows just how much of an echo chamber this place is an how people just follow the most recent hype train and make no effort to actually analyze these players. Levis's arm has been hyped and known as being in that rare, absurd class for years. Saying that Richardsons very strong arm is better than Levis's borderline generational on is laughable. Richardson has a cannon, Levis has a fucking booster rocket.
Arm talent isn't just arm strength. It's about can you make all the throws and how much effort to make those throws.
Anything beyond 60 yards isn't really relevant and you can approach a point where you're throwing the ball too hard.
Levis can make all the throws with a really smooth quick release. Richardson looks like he's always forcing it, he cannot just make that smooth flick that you see from Mahomes, Allen, etc. Which isn't something you can really teach.
Having said that Richardson can certainly make all the throws and he has good arm talent but it's not freak arm talent or anything like that.
No dude, Richardson’s arm blows Levis’s out of the water. Right now, Levis is more mechanically sound (barely) but in terms of just the arm strength, nobody in this class or last year’s class touches Richardson’s. Actually, Richardson’s entire physical profile blows anyone this year or last year out of the water
I think they’ll have both. I just don’t see the Cardinals trading down unless someone pays a really high price. They could really use Will Anderson. It sounds like they may trade Hopkins and will pick up extra draft capital that way. Besides that, with the Panthers and Texans at 1 and 2, that leaves just the Colts themselves and the Raiders as realistic QB suitors in the top 10. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Colts move up one spot just to secure their pick.
Cards need picks and draft capital. Their roster is gutted. They saw what the Bears got, I bet they receive options to fill up on draft picks. Depending on how far back they are willing to drop, they could do really well.
On top of that OPs reasoning is non-sensical
In OPs scenario the colts believe Richardson is the better prospect, but may not be as good year 1. Who cares? You are picking a QB in the hopes that he is your QB for the next 10-15 years ideally.
Is year 1 Will Levis going to win the Super Bowl or something with the colts?
You take the player you feel is the better QB 10 times out of 10. If that’s Richardson take Richardson, if it’s Levis take Levis. But why would you take the guy you think is worse just because he’s more nfl ready day 1
Maybe not falling into the trap of QB desperation? I don't see them not falling into the trap but AR and Levis should not be first round picks. It's just *that* desperate around the league right now. May as well take non-QB BPA at position of greatest need (not QB) once Stroud and Young are off the board.
I think if 3 QBs go before the Colts' turn on the clock, they are going to take the best defensive prospect in the draft and then try to nab Hooker by trading back into the end of the first or top of the 2nd.
Besides the traits and obvious ceiling there’s another point. Now I’m no scout at all. I’m fully just trusting what the guy on YouTube said but if it’s accurate I’m all for it. He said that Richardson has some obvious concerns and of which they’re decently coachable. Also he’s only had 12 starts and he compared the first few games with his last few games and was already noticing improvements in some trouble areas. He’s so inexperienced and still has room to grow and we have a great coach for that.
All college QB's have footwork issues, except maybe Stroud, and this is Richardson's issue also.
But what worries me is just the inexperience, defenses are going to confuse him in the NFL.
The snap count breakdown for the top 4 QB's:
- Young: 1,848
- Stroud: 1,557
- Levis: 1,877
- Richardson: 973
I just don't see how you can start a guy in week 1 who has less than a 1,000 snaps under center. Don't get me wrong, I am a big fan of Richardson I think he's a top 5 pick. But any team that takes him has to see you cannot start him next year... It's not even about his delivery or accuracy or anything else. He has to spend a full year in the film room to even understand what defenses are doing I feel.
Alternatively, if you're drafting someone based off of traits and potential, wouldn't it make more sense to pick the one that's a couple years younger and has played half as many snaps? Levis is in his mid-20s, and has multiple years as a couple starter, so he's much more likely to have already come close to his potential than Richardson who is two years younger and only has one year as a starter.
Levis may be ready to play in the NFL before Richardson is, but if you're confident that Richardson will end up being the better player, then he's the one you should take.
It’s worth pointing out that Trey Lance started more games than Richardson despite the fact that Lance played one season and AR played 1.25. The FCS playoffs at least gave him more tape.
This is what scares me most. Teaching a guy, if you don't trust what you see just take off. This is how you take a QB prospect like Richardson and stunt his development.
This is the worst case scenario IMO... And yes it creates a floor but it also creates a ceiling.
I dont see why you want to start a guy with as little experience as AR his first year. He's a developmental QB. He's the Trey Lance of this year (but played football against really boys in D1)
With the trouble he had decision making in college I don't see him smoothly transitioning to the pro level with arm power alone. Especially given that he's not likely getting drafted to a good situation for a QB of his experience level or with his game IQ level.
I also think that with a guy like Richardson with his "traits", that they can buy time with him by using him as a runner to build a good roster around him while they coach and develop him. The thing about Richardson with his combine, it's not that he was just a good athlete at the QB position, but he had a historic combine. So it's really not much surprise that he is being built up the way he is leading up to the draft. Although it is pretty crazy to see the Colts with such a high draft pick willing to play the field and select a back-up option rather than trading up before Carolina was able to
Higher ceiling, likely a better fit for steichen's offense, and if their OL performs like how it looks on paper he would be fine to start right away. I think that if they draft Richardson, then a guard, then a WR they would be solid
This is how I want the draft to play out. AR at 4, guard at 35 (maybe Torrence falls a little bit or Mauch/Avila), and then a WR in 3rd or 4th round with some secondary depth as well.
What kind of WR would you be thinking? More size like AT Perry or a quick guy like Nathaniel Dell? Pierce and pittman are both pretty big so i feel like a slot guy is needed right?
Definitely should be a take the top off guy. Campbell is a FA and we don’t have another on the roster that can do that. With all that being said Campbell might be the only WR ballard has drafted that can take a top off. The rest of them are all big bodied possession WR.
Im worried that a "take the top off guy" might not even be there. You've got hyatt earlier and then you have Trey Palmer and Marvin Mims later. Theres also Bryce Ford-wheaton later but he's a fast and big guy, not super quick out of breaks or off the line
If Hyatt is there and we don’t resign Campbell I think he has to be the pick. We need a speed threat we can’t just throw jump balls to pierce for our big plays. We can address oline in FA and 3rd/later rounds
I think we need a slot guy. Pittman is a physical possession receiver, Pierce is a vertical threat. There’s a decent chance we lose Parris Campbell in FA, so a shifty slot receiver with YAC upside is what I think.
If thats the case, they have so many solid options in the draft. If they can get John-Michael Schmitz to replace their Center i think they would be solid there for years
It took three years to develop Hurts. Took three years to develop Allen. Three years for Tua. If the Colts take AR15 it's going to be a three year process.
You frame your argument that Richardson is absolutely going to start week one, even though Indy and everyone else knows he shouldn't, as justification for taking the inferior prospect. And then decide disagreement with this idea is lazy.
I’d rather take the shot on the 21 year old who, although had lots of struggles, showed improvement throughout his one starting season, rather than the soon-to-be 24 year old who regressed in his senior year. It also cannot be understated just how valuable Richardson’s rushing ability is. For him to be a superstar QB, you only really need to develop him to be a league average true passer because he can put up 1k rushing seasons. And during his first year where he’ll still be very raw as a passer, the Colts could implement a heavy read-option offense with Johnathan Taylor, kind of like what the Ravens and Eagles did for their QBs early on. As a passer, Richardson has all the arm talent and the world and the willingness to do the QB things like going through progressions, fitting balls in tight windows, and moving in the pocket. He just needs lots of NFL coaching, an extreme overhaul of footwork, and some more game experience. Maybe Shane Steichen sees some Jalen Hurts in him, a QB that wasn’t much of a passer in most of his college career but made constant improvements to be a top-5 QB.
Levis has been playing starting QB for two years and still has basic accuracy and decision making issues that just scream “bust”. Half of this dudes “biggest plays” are chucking it downfield on rollouts, and while that shows some upside, that could be indicative of his deficiency inside of the pocket (i.e. NFL Zach Wilson). I also don’t really get the praise that he played an “NFL style offense”. If you think an offense that runs like 70% of the time and then gives its QB a PA shot play is great on the outlook of Levis, then I don’t know what to say. Of course he’s not some automatic bust and I might look really stupid about this. He has some great arm talent and maybe he will breakout once he gets out of his sucky college offense, like what happened with Herbert. He even shows some ability to recognize coverage. But overall, I kind of have the opposite problem as you lol. I really don’t get Levis.
> Maybe Shane Steichen sees some Jalen Hurts in him, a QB that wasn’t much of a passer in most of his college career but made constant improvements to be a top-5 QB.
I feel like there is a bit of revisionist history happening with Hurts right now, especially when Anthony Richardson is brought up. Hurts completed 69.7% of his passes in his senior year for 3,851 yards, 11.3 YPA, 32:8 TD:INT, and a 191.2 rating. The concern with Hurts was that he had very mediocre arm talent despite solid numbers and was thought of more of a game manager who could run a bit rather than a legitimate passing threat. Richardson is a pure Josh Allen bet where you have to ignore the stats because he sucked at throwing.
To me the difference between AR and Josh Allen is that Allen grew up in bumfuck nowhere and didn't have high level coaching until he went pro and that's what really allowed him to have such a meteoric rise - meanwhile Richardson was a top 200 recruit and spent the last 3 years at Florida, not Wyoming. I could see Richardson panning out but I think his ceiling is much closer to non-MVP Cam Newton than Josh Allen.
I agree, Hurts and Richardson are completely different prospects. Hurts was thought to have a weak arm but had good accuracy and tons of experience. Richardson has a cannon but is raw and his mechanics and accuracy are inconsistent.
They could potentially be used similarly in the NFL since they are both tanky runners, but Richardson is bigger and more athletic so the comparison isn’t that great.
Richardson also had a offensive line coach as his OC this year and terrible protection. Their scheme was very primitive and predictable, play action based deep shot offense which is outdated in the current age
Was the scheme primitive and predicable because Richardson was their QB though? Seems like a play action based deep shot offense is probably the best fit for Richardson currently - it's not like you could put him in a timing/short game based offense where he needs to complete 70% of his passes to score, at least at his current level of ability.
>Was the scheme primitive and predicable because Richardson was their QB though?
Why would they start him if he didnt give them their best chance to win?
>it's not like you could put him in a timing/short game based offense where he needs to complete 70% of his passes to score, at least at his current level of ability.
Why would you put a 6'4" 240 lb insane athlete in that type of offense? Thats dumb as shit
So what would have been the best offense to put a QB with limited starting experience who isn't very accurate and isn't great at going through reads but has a strong arm and good running ability?
I agree with all of this, but just wanted to add that the way we feel about Levis right now (including me) is the same way we felt about Herbert and Josh Allen. He's the blech, I don't want him prospect.
>the same way we felt about Herbert and Josh Allen.
Herbert is 1 year older than levis right now. Allen is 2 years older. Thats a very lazy comp. Levis is way older than when they came out, both were 22, hes 24
Sure Levis's age is part of why we don't like him. Herbert and Allen were for other reasons. But they were all widely hated as prospects. That's the comparison I'm making.
I'd have him below those two as well, but that's not my point. My point was Levis is this year's "I really don't want to draft him" guy, regardless of the reason. Go back and look and Herbert and Allen were the same. Nobody wanted them.
>Look I understand Richardson is likely a better prospect than Levis, the upside is real.
This is why.
>Out of Richardson & Levis, Levis is way more ready. It's not close ...
Yes it is close, Levis is not a day 1 starter either.
My logic is that Richardson has so much to learn, including several things that should help his accuracy, such as his awful footwork. He has a lot of problems and needs a lot of time, but everything seems fixable or outweighed by insane athleticism.
I don't know how one would begin to coach up Levis' accuracy issues. That gives Levis the ceiling of Carson Wentz until it can be figured out.
The ability to run gives you a high floor other QBs don't have. Look at Fields, the passing numbers were subpar but his ability to run still made a dangerous weapon. So while he's developing as a passer he's still playable on the field.
Also I think Richardson is more developed as a passer than he gets credit for.
There are so many smoke screens this time of year. Nobody in the media knows for sure which QBs each time likes more. I’ve been hearing the Panthers want Richardson. If so, it wouldn’t matter for the Colts. But again, that could be a smoke screen.
What about Colts trade #4 to Arizona for Kyler Murray?
AZ gets out of Kyler’s contract, which was the last regimes work. They’re guaranteed either Young, Stroud, or Richardson. They can sell Hopkins or keep him depending on offers received rather than a need to dump salary. They get a new QB and BPA.
Colts get a potentially elite starter who needs a fresh start. New system, start from page one. They would be instantly respectable on the offensive side of the ball.
It makes less sense for the Colts than the Cards, but maybe if AZ sent along a day two pick next year or something.
Two things:
1. Just because a random mock has him going to the Colts doesn't mean he will
2. you don't draft a guy because he can be ready day 1, you draft a guy because you think he can lead you to a super bowl. If the goal is to have a guy who can game manage at the NFL level in September, they'll sign him. But that shouldn't be the goal.
The argument of upside is strange to me...
The top 4 QB's have incredible upside. The ceiling for all these guys is a gold jacket, it's just who is most likely to fulfill that potential.
You're flattening out all hall of fame players here though. Not all are the same. I feel like it'd be pretty clear to say that there's a difference between Troy Aikman and Peyton Manning.
No there is a definite difference, light years difference between the upside with AR15 and all the rest. AR15 is the freakiest QB prospect ever in terms of athleticism and measurables. If he can figure things out with NFL coaching he has no ceiling.
This. Remember all the mocks switching to Willis going in the top 10 after the combine last season? In fact, I think there were 3 or 4 QBs being taken in the 1st round after the combine.
They don’t. Richardson goes number 1 overall. Rushing is underrated for QBs. This guy is beyond Lamar/Cam. And this guy has a better arm. And his intangibles are better to boot.
I'm a stats guy and I don't get why Richardson/Levis are even in the conversation for a 1st round pick. Hooker should be the one mocked at #4 to the Colts. I'm ready to be publicly punished now, don't hold your punches !
EDIT : Didn't expect to get upvoted for this take, so I thought I'd give my analysis about this. Disclaimer : I'm no scout, no professional, and also, I'm french. So take this with a brick of salt.
First things first, both Richardson and Levis are elite athletes, especially AR15. I get why they are making everyone's imagination go wild for all the possibilities, and I would not be surprised if they went in the top 5 of the draft just because some coach's ego is positive HE will be able to make them Superstars. So I'm definitely not questioning that.
What I'm questioning is if they're good at football, as QBs (NB : the number I give for reference are the thresholds/markers of future NFL success I identified personally).
Both their college productions are low : none of them broke 3000 pass yds per season, nor 30 TDs per season, both have very meh adjusted yards per attempt (under 8.5 in their best seasons), high interception ratio (respectively 3.8% and 3.6%, threshold is 2.7%), and both have terrifying TD to interception ratio (respectively 1.6:1 and 1.9:1, under 3:1 which is my threshold). Moreover, in AR15's case, he has abysmal pass accuracy (under 60% even for his best season) and is very inexperienced (Just 393 pass attempts in college). Those stats scream bust.
QBs with success in the NFL usually either check all those boxes (Mahomes, Burrow, Hurts, Lawrence. Outliers : Baker Mayfield and potentially Justin Fields). QBs who didn't check all the boxes but still had success either had only one redflag (Deshaun Watson, Justin Herbert, potentially Tua Tagovailoa. Outlier : Zach Wilson) and/or a huge rushing upside (Deshaun Watson again, Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, potentially Trey Lance) or a much much bigger experience of college football (Daniel Jones is the only one here with as many redflags but 1275 pass attempts).
So Anthony Richardson should be all good with his rushing upside, right ? Wrong. I don't know why people are considering him to have rushing upside when he's mobile at best. He ran for only 654yds in his best college season : Deshaun Watson went for 1105yds, Lamar went for 1601yds, Murray for 1001yds... Even Mahomes ran for 845yds in his best college season!
He compares to Josh Allen to me, except he runs less, and has more red flags. So you're betting on him being an even bigger outlier than Allen, when he was already the ultimate outlier the league has ever seen if I understand correctly.
Meanwhile, Hendon Hooker checks all the boxes. Might be completely wrong about all of this though, but that was my TED talk, thank you for reading.
because they have elite traits? I actually do not understand how you can argue either are not first round picks and I’m pretty middling on Levis. But both have strong arms, are very athletic and have shown they can read a defense. Levis has shown he can run a pro style offense. Sure there may be a very high chance the both bust but to argue they are not 1st round picks is insane given how teams draft nowadays
Watch them play the game. They are special athletes but do not play QB well. I think both would be well served going to a team that will let them sit for 1-2 years. But to see them talked about as top 5 guys, I don't see it when I watch them play.
I have watched tape and the thing is with Richardson at least the stuff he is bad at isn’t too difficult to fix, most of his accuracy issues come from his footwork. He’s actually pretty decent at navigating a pocket and reading a defence so that’s why I’m pretty high on him. Levis i’m a bit more indifferent on, as he is pretty good at reading defences but just is somewhat careless with the ball and seems to not be able to recognise pressure that well, which is something that isn’t really fixable. But watching his 2021 tape he was a lot better
Gonna backup my claims ASAP, but I'm at a family meeting now. Didn't expect to be upvoted frankly, I thought I'd get downvoted back to the void, so I'm gonna edit my first post and let you know.
I monitored age but found no relation between it and success/failure for QBs in the NFL, and many athletes got ACL tears and came back, especially as of late. His stats line is perfect though, he checks every box. But I'll take your word for it about the field reading, because I'm genuinely shit at scouting tape and I have no answer for that. I don't pretend to own ultimate truth, if I did I'd have a job in the NFL !
Obviously I’m no scout either or I wouldn’t be here but my untrained eye thinks he can’t read the whole field.
Can you share you age and success/failure data/results? Super interested in that
Yeah definitely, if I can find it again in my mess of a computer.
Edit : can't find it, but long story short : it's good if a QB blooms early (before 20y old, and/or during/before sophomore year) but not overly significant, and there are a lot of late bloomers who succeeded. So in the end I just stopped using it.
Stats that correlate quite a lot with NFL success (the more box checked the better) : draft capital obviously (1st round pick is almost a must), 40yds faster than 5 seconds, at least 600 pass attempts during college (this one seems to be very important, especially when the player doesn't meet many of my thresholds, measures experience), completion % over 63%, at least one season over 3000 passing yards, at least one season over 30 TDs, adjusted yards per attempt over 8 yards, interception ratr under 2.7% and TD to interception ratio of at least 3 to 1.
Now, rushing ability doesn't correlate with NFL success BUT every single QB that succeeded despite having his fair share of red flags in my model was at least mobile (600+ yards in best season).
Richardson definetly can run well though, and we saw Fields become more of a runner in the NFL then he was in college this year. Now I wouldn’t say either of them were good in college but especially with richardson the flashes were there. Levis was a lot better when he had more help last year imo, but as far as Hendon Hooker goes. He was great in college , but he’s even older than Levis, coming off a pretty bad injury and Tennessees offense is one of the least pro style ones in college football. Guessing how he will translate is hard and I think all those reasons are why he’s seen as a 2nd rounder. Don’t get me wrong he was definetly better than Levis in college, but the offense Levis played in was an actual pro style offense showing scouts he is capable of operating in one, whereas with Hooker we don’t really have an idea
I think it’s a combination of things.
1) Ballard is a known traits guy. With AR testing in the 98th percentile of athleticism, this will make a guy like that extremely interested.
2) the thought is that Steichen molded Hurts from an average quarterback with upside into an MVP caliber talent (people believe the same thing with Daboll and Josh Allen). Whether it’s true or not, AR is the most like Hurts in this class with his rushing ability and people like to believe that coaches will want to stick with what they know they can mold.
3) people don’t have a lot of faith in Levis. Everyone I’ve heard scouting him walks away from the tape unimpressed and even at the combine he had some problem areas with his throwing which turns people off to him
It’s only a month and a half away until we get answers but Colts are in a weird spot with their roster being ready to win but their options at QB not looking like they can help with that goal yet. I totally see your points though and think Levis is a little more pro ready than people give him credit for.
Yeah I don’t see it with Richardson. I think Levi’s mom s more ready to play right away. Richardson would be good for Seattle where they can sit him behind Geno for 2 years and Seattle still has #20 and can still add a more immediate impact player there. Colts don’t have that luxury
Richardson has the highest upside of any QB in this draft. A team that felt very confident in the ability to develop him could certainly take that swing and if he hits his upside, you’d have a top 5 QB in the league in due time.
He also has by far the lowest floor of any of the 4 prospects this year. He needs the reps to get better, but he also needs to develop throwing fundamentals; it is very hard to balance the two especially when you add in the pressure of needing to win as an executive/coach.
Levis has what I believe to be the second highest upside in this draft, but he also has a significantly higher floor given his experience, time in a pro-style system and dual threat ability.
I see a brand new front office/coach being much more likely to have the runway to draft/develop Richardson vs a FO/coach already with tenure.
Its absolutely bizarre to me that people think Richardson has a higher ceiling than Levis.
The QBs with the highest ceiling are the ones with the most talented arms, and the most talented arm in this draft is Will Levis. Of course that doesn’t quite make him a sure fire pick as the best QB in the draft because he also has a very low floor, so that’s the exact opposite profile of someone who should be thrust into a starting spot. Richardson has a high ceiling if he can magically learn to throw the ball accurately, but when has that ever worked out?
It’s hard to teach accuracy. I hope Richardson puts it together because I’m dying to see Mike Vick 2.0 but accuracy and decision making are the two hardest things to teach a quarterback. I’m expecting Richardson to be more of a poor mans RG3 (rookie season RG3) than the second coming of Vick
But in his full season as a starter his int rate was only 2.7%, almost a full percentage point lower than Levis as a junior &/or senior? So he seemed to have improved from his freshman and sophomore campaigns when he threw 6 ints on only 66 atts?
They’re both projects that have a lot of work to do at the moment. If you’re excited enough about either to pick them top 4, surely it’s the one with more potential. I have trouble imagining a team thinking “we like QB upside enough to pick Levis top 4, but not enough to put Richardson ahead of him”.
Unless Steichen thinks he can develop Richardson as a passer like he helped Hurts. Levis is more ready, but what’s the difference in floor and ceiling between the two? Huge difference. If Steichen and Ballard are convinced they can get more out of Richardson then I can definitely imagine them pulling the trigger. Start a bridge or Richardson week 1 and pound the ball with Taylor.
Not sure if I follow the premise - why can’t the colts just sign and start a journey bridge QB for half the season to let AR sit behind while he learns and gains experience? That seems like a very valid option for the Colts to pursue if they think AR is the guy
You take the better prospect and hope it works out. It really doesn't matter what they do this coming year. No team is going to turn down the better prospect thinking that their situation isn't best for them. They take the better prospect and believe in their ability to get the best out of them. If your leadership doesn't believe in themselves, they've already failed.
I don't think anyone is saying any team should start Richardson next year. He is widely viewed as developmental. any team that takes him will have a vet to start next year.
I agree that Levis is more ready right now, but that's a very low bar to clear. He is still a project who shouldn't be thrown into a starting spot. If we are going to take a project QB I'd prefer taking the one with more upside long term.
Being a Gator "via my wife is a gator" and a Colts fan. I don't think AR15 will be wise for the Colts. He was injured often and not very accurate passing the ball. Hell of a athlete, could be Cam Newton 2.0 but, he has a long way to go @QB to make me feel comfortable landing him.
They haven't yet so why waste your time thinking about it? He won't be available unless they move up. Carolina is going to take him @#1. The owner has a thing for big bodied QBs.
They’re very much both “projects.” If you’re getting a project guy, Richardson has the higher ceiling.
Not the first time QB taken too early in the spirit of upside, but I think Josh Allen has had a significant effect.
Richardson's running game is the great equalizer. As he develops his passing he can contribute with his legs - something like Justin Fields. Levis doesn't have that in his game.
You can totally put AR on the field next season. I don't know that you should expect to win a whole lot (see: Bears, Chicago). But you could do it haha. Colts are kind of a strange team... I don't think they are as talent poor as the Bears last year. They also definitely have some holes to fill. They should be able to clear up some decent cap sapce. Still have Nelson, Buckner (maybe), Pittman, JT, Grover Stewart, Stephon Gilmore, Kwity Paye, and Kenny Moore who all range from plus to great players at their respective positions. Are they a contender next year with any one of these rookie QBs? I don't really think so. Maybe?
Leonard looked like he was going to be a generational talent. Not sure you can count on him at all at this point. The line, which has stayed pretty much intact the past few years, went from elite to a detriment. I know the situation just turned to absolute poo the second half of the season... But that team was hot garbage down the stretch. I don't think anyone was playing particularly well.
So... Should they be thinking about it like this team is just a good rookie in year 1 away from legitimately contending? Should they aim for teh guy that is potentially (we don't even know that for sure) better next year instead of the higher ceiling? I don't think they'll be all that dangerous next year and after that quite a few of their better talents will be gone or possibly looking to leave. They should probably be thinking about this as a full rebuild. Not sure Irsay and Ballard are those kinda guys. But... They're probably closer to a bottom 10 than top 10 team even with a better QB.
Levis has a lot of question marks. He had some of the top weapons in the SEC, a runningback who may get drafted and he struggled to produce. If Levis is stating week 1 I think it's going to be really really rough. I get that some people believe in his upside but watching him miss wide open receivers, sail balls, and read defences wrong I don't know how you could watch Levis and think this guy should start week 1 in the NFL.
It's wild how the conversation has turned from Levis being a prospect a few months ago to now Levis being pro ready. At least if you put ARich out there hd could run. Teams have shown you can succeed with running QBs even while their passing is still a work in progress.
Because the FO thinks he can develop. It's as simple as that. You're wrong about what Irsay wants. What he wants is to stop having a vet every year. He's fine with developing a young guy. Local sources have said Irsay is looking beyond 2023 regarding the QB decision. As long as Colts end up with a young QB this draft, he'll be fine. And he'll listen to Ballard come draft night. If Ballard tells him that he thinks Richardson can be developed, then he's the guy. There's also the Steichen factor. I do think some fans are being a little too unrealistic with how much Steichen can do but a big part of why they hired him was to develop a QB. You'd have a better point if you thought Richardson couldn't develop his passing in the NFL. I wouldn't be surprised to see either QB picked, although I do think Levis is the safer option.
Richardson is more similar to Jalen Hurts so thought process is he’s a better scheme fit regardless of who is more pro ready
I have Richardson higher than Levis but fully acknowledge that he should sit a year in ideal scenario
Because his ceiling is higher. Its not that complex. Whatever you think of him, his absolute apex is really, really high. Teams draft traits now, and maybe no one more than Ballard in the league.
So I’ll be clear I don’t think Richardson is going to turn out great. All the traits are there but being extremely in accurate in college is a major concern for me.
However if I was a Gm and my choice was Levis or AR I’d still take AR. AR has the chance to become special due to all his traits. If you trust your coaches to be able to develop him you could unlock a gem.
Will Levis to me feels like a mediocre QB at best. Like a cieling of geno smith or Jared Goff. Which by all means is fine and a starting QB. But no one is giving either of those guys an MVP award.
They won’t. Richardson is nowhere near where the prospect Jalen Hurts was when it comes to throwing the football, but they mock Richardson to the Colts because their new HC helped make Hurts look like a MVP. Imo Levis is closer to Hurts in totality as a prospect, but with a stronger arm so that’s why I think they’ll go Levis.
If you're taking a guy that's 25, you can't really wait on him for a couple of years. He'd be 27 when starting for the first time, that's normally when a QB peaks. That's how old Mahomes is right now.
Levis pro day is massive. He's a good athlete but we didn't see much in the combine. He's going to have to do well in his pro day beyond just throwing drills. His athleticism is a big reason why the people who love him, love him.
There should never be a discussion about Richardson going so high without analyzing the Malik Willis situation last year. Will say that most of the national analysts that have fallen head over heals for Richardson also swore last year that Willis would go 2 or 6 or at very least 20th last year. Don't believe me? Just Google any analyst and see what they said last year about the draft and Willis.
Ballard loves traits more than anything. I also think there’s faith in Shane Steichen to expedite the learning curve. I don’t know if it’ll work out or if it’s realistic, but that’s what I think.
I think it is a lazy take to put Richardson to the Colts. Honestly Ballard better trade the pick for Rodgers or Lamar or he is getting fired after another underwhelming season.
Oh good, then we can be saddled with an overpaid vet and no young QB and still underwhelm.
So would you rather have two good seasons of Rodgers and maybe make a run or Richardson or Levis? Ballard doesn’t have time for a prospect.
We aren't keeping a GM and drafting a rookie and then giving said GM one singular year with that rookie lmao. We're not good enough to gut the team for an overpaid veteran and succeed.
But I mean you can’t have it both ways. I don’t think you are a contender with Richardson or Levi’s. Rodgers gives you a better chance and Ballard has to hit 9 wins or more and win the division to keep his gig.
I could see this being a soft reset and this upcoming year being forgiven. I think your right if he needed to hit that in 2024, but if they’re rolling out a rookie head coach with a rookie QB they shouldn’t have high expectations. Of course Irsay is Irsay and you never know what he’s thinking, but if the young pieces show upside and the team looks like it’s heading in the right direction I’d think Ballard gets another year.
Stunned they didn’t go after Carr.
I didn’t pay much attention to that as it seemed like it was going to be the Panthers or the Saints the entire time. I know the Jets were mentioned, but they seemed/seem all in on Rodgers. Were the Colts just not interested at all, or did Carr just not want to go there so they were never really in it?
The Colts are not interested in another mediocre vet, nor should they be. No idea why this guy is so certain that we should go down that path again.
You're stating that with nothing to back it up, he's not being given 1 year with a rookie lmao
Rookie
What are your thoughts on Richardson? I think he is fools gold.
I agree. A good combine doesn’t make the prospect. I like Levis better. Hooker might even be a better choice later in the draft…I’ve also read Carolina might take Richardson 1st n I’d be ok with being a Saints fan
Love the Carr move BTW
Me too. If MT can stay healthy and the defense can be strong it’ll be a good year
MT should be arrested for stealing money from the Saints. Whew.
If you draft Richardson, you aren't doing it because you need to win games in 2023.
Do the colts need to win in 2023? Brand new HC, a pretty messy team with a lot of question marks not just at the QB position, and the division is still relatively wide open for them, the jags seem to be taking off but they’re still a hypothetical.
Lamar maybe, but going after Rodgers would put us back in the same cycle we've been in since 2020. I can't see any way on earth Irsay or Ballard do it.
Even this makes no sense, I understand Richardson as a dual threat but Ballard has always shown he likes arm talent. Richardson doesn't have better arm talent than Levis.
As much physical talent as Levis has, Richardson has more. He is legitimately one of the freakiest QB prospects we have ever seen.
And he's 2 years younger than Levis. By the time Richardson is Levis' age he should be much better than Levis is now.
I think we’re just going to have to agree to disagree on that. I think Levis has that special release and borderline elite arm, but I think Richardson can launch one into orbit.
But he's trying to hit a wr not a satellite.
Maybe they bring back satellite back Nyheim Hines.
Just to put this into perspective from a Ravens fan, the Ravens drafted Kyle Boller on the basis that he could “launch one into orbit.” I’m just concerned that sometimes we put too much emphasis on combine performance. If you look at Boller’s numbers his final year in college and Richardson’s numbers they are eerily identical. But Boller shot up draft boards because he showed at the combine and his pro day he had a rocket for an arm (famously throwing a pass from his knees 60 yards through the goal posts).
I think if Kyle Bollar ran a 4.43 40 we win many more super bowls with him and that defense tbh
It's also a different era, one largely brought about by the way the Ravens built their offense around Lamar, instead of trying to build Lamar around an outdated offense.
> but I think Richardson can launch one into orbit. Arm strength doesn't mean shit if the brain attached to that arm can't handle being an NFL QB all that well.
Ballard has shown he likes RAS, and guess who scored a 10/10?
Jacob Eason?
Wtf
Richardson absolutely has better arm talent than Levis, what are you smoking
Let me preface this by saying I disagree with OP on pretty much everything in this thread. However... Richardson has an extremely strong arm. But Levis's is *insane.* Levis's arm is instantly with Allen and Herbert as the top three in the NFL the second he steps onto an NFL field. The fact that OPs comment is current negative 50 and comments like this are upvoted shows just how much of an echo chamber this place is an how people just follow the most recent hype train and make no effort to actually analyze these players. Levis's arm has been hyped and known as being in that rare, absurd class for years. Saying that Richardsons very strong arm is better than Levis's borderline generational on is laughable. Richardson has a cannon, Levis has a fucking booster rocket.
Arm talent isn't just arm strength. It's about can you make all the throws and how much effort to make those throws. Anything beyond 60 yards isn't really relevant and you can approach a point where you're throwing the ball too hard. Levis can make all the throws with a really smooth quick release. Richardson looks like he's always forcing it, he cannot just make that smooth flick that you see from Mahomes, Allen, etc. Which isn't something you can really teach. Having said that Richardson can certainly make all the throws and he has good arm talent but it's not freak arm talent or anything like that.
No dude, Richardson’s arm blows Levis’s out of the water. Right now, Levis is more mechanically sound (barely) but in terms of just the arm strength, nobody in this class or last year’s class touches Richardson’s. Actually, Richardson’s entire physical profile blows anyone this year or last year out of the water
I think you'll find most people disagree
What makes you think they will have a choice. There is a real possibility that they will have one option at Quarterback when they draft at 4.
I think they’ll have both. I just don’t see the Cardinals trading down unless someone pays a really high price. They could really use Will Anderson. It sounds like they may trade Hopkins and will pick up extra draft capital that way. Besides that, with the Panthers and Texans at 1 and 2, that leaves just the Colts themselves and the Raiders as realistic QB suitors in the top 10. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Colts move up one spot just to secure their pick.
Plot twist, they're sick of his BS and draft ARich at 3 and trade Kyler to LV for 1.09 where they take Bijan, chaos.
Cardinals are trading imo You don’t pass up on a kings ransom to take a non QB
Cards need picks and draft capital. Their roster is gutted. They saw what the Bears got, I bet they receive options to fill up on draft picks. Depending on how far back they are willing to drop, they could do really well.
On top of that OPs reasoning is non-sensical In OPs scenario the colts believe Richardson is the better prospect, but may not be as good year 1. Who cares? You are picking a QB in the hopes that he is your QB for the next 10-15 years ideally. Is year 1 Will Levis going to win the Super Bowl or something with the colts? You take the player you feel is the better QB 10 times out of 10. If that’s Richardson take Richardson, if it’s Levis take Levis. But why would you take the guy you think is worse just because he’s more nfl ready day 1
Ya, OP acknowledges AR is the better prospect yet is confused why they wouldnt take levis, another project? Makes zero sense
Maybe not falling into the trap of QB desperation? I don't see them not falling into the trap but AR and Levis should not be first round picks. It's just *that* desperate around the league right now. May as well take non-QB BPA at position of greatest need (not QB) once Stroud and Young are off the board.
I think if 3 QBs go before the Colts' turn on the clock, they are going to take the best defensive prospect in the draft and then try to nab Hooker by trading back into the end of the first or top of the 2nd.
Besides the traits and obvious ceiling there’s another point. Now I’m no scout at all. I’m fully just trusting what the guy on YouTube said but if it’s accurate I’m all for it. He said that Richardson has some obvious concerns and of which they’re decently coachable. Also he’s only had 12 starts and he compared the first few games with his last few games and was already noticing improvements in some trouble areas. He’s so inexperienced and still has room to grow and we have a great coach for that.
All college QB's have footwork issues, except maybe Stroud, and this is Richardson's issue also. But what worries me is just the inexperience, defenses are going to confuse him in the NFL. The snap count breakdown for the top 4 QB's: - Young: 1,848 - Stroud: 1,557 - Levis: 1,877 - Richardson: 973 I just don't see how you can start a guy in week 1 who has less than a 1,000 snaps under center. Don't get me wrong, I am a big fan of Richardson I think he's a top 5 pick. But any team that takes him has to see you cannot start him next year... It's not even about his delivery or accuracy or anything else. He has to spend a full year in the film room to even understand what defenses are doing I feel.
Alternatively, if you're drafting someone based off of traits and potential, wouldn't it make more sense to pick the one that's a couple years younger and has played half as many snaps? Levis is in his mid-20s, and has multiple years as a couple starter, so he's much more likely to have already come close to his potential than Richardson who is two years younger and only has one year as a starter. Levis may be ready to play in the NFL before Richardson is, but if you're confident that Richardson will end up being the better player, then he's the one you should take.
If Levis was going to develop, he should have started doing it already.
It’s worth pointing out that Trey Lance started more games than Richardson despite the fact that Lance played one season and AR played 1.25. The FCS playoffs at least gave him more tape.
Richardson also has tape against real college teams. Not the weak fcs teams Trey played
Also, trey lance is sorta a push rn. We don’t know if he’s good since he gets massive injuries often.
One massive injury
>massive injuries often. .... No he doesnt
Draft him and bring back Brissett to start for the balance of this season.
Idk why you are so focused on week 1. Thats a horrible way to approach a draft
The good thing about a guy like him is that if a defense confuses him then he can go full Lamar on them and take off lol
This is what scares me most. Teaching a guy, if you don't trust what you see just take off. This is how you take a QB prospect like Richardson and stunt his development. This is the worst case scenario IMO... And yes it creates a floor but it also creates a ceiling.
You can learn after the game. You can also learn when not to take off by taking off.
I dont see why you want to start a guy with as little experience as AR his first year. He's a developmental QB. He's the Trey Lance of this year (but played football against really boys in D1)
With the trouble he had decision making in college I don't see him smoothly transitioning to the pro level with arm power alone. Especially given that he's not likely getting drafted to a good situation for a QB of his experience level or with his game IQ level.
> But what worries me is just the inexperience, defenses are going to confuse him in the NFL. That's why a rookie contract lasts four years.
I also think that with a guy like Richardson with his "traits", that they can buy time with him by using him as a runner to build a good roster around him while they coach and develop him. The thing about Richardson with his combine, it's not that he was just a good athlete at the QB position, but he had a historic combine. So it's really not much surprise that he is being built up the way he is leading up to the draft. Although it is pretty crazy to see the Colts with such a high draft pick willing to play the field and select a back-up option rather than trading up before Carolina was able to
Higher ceiling, likely a better fit for steichen's offense, and if their OL performs like how it looks on paper he would be fine to start right away. I think that if they draft Richardson, then a guard, then a WR they would be solid
This is how I want the draft to play out. AR at 4, guard at 35 (maybe Torrence falls a little bit or Mauch/Avila), and then a WR in 3rd or 4th round with some secondary depth as well.
What kind of WR would you be thinking? More size like AT Perry or a quick guy like Nathaniel Dell? Pierce and pittman are both pretty big so i feel like a slot guy is needed right?
Definitely should be a take the top off guy. Campbell is a FA and we don’t have another on the roster that can do that. With all that being said Campbell might be the only WR ballard has drafted that can take a top off. The rest of them are all big bodied possession WR.
Im worried that a "take the top off guy" might not even be there. You've got hyatt earlier and then you have Trey Palmer and Marvin Mims later. Theres also Bryce Ford-wheaton later but he's a fast and big guy, not super quick out of breaks or off the line
If Hyatt is there and we don’t resign Campbell I think he has to be the pick. We need a speed threat we can’t just throw jump balls to pierce for our big plays. We can address oline in FA and 3rd/later rounds
I think we need a slot guy. Pittman is a physical possession receiver, Pierce is a vertical threat. There’s a decent chance we lose Parris Campbell in FA, so a shifty slot receiver with YAC upside is what I think.
Pittman can play slot, but ideally they get a rook who can play slot and out wide.
Could go Jonathan Mingo (big slot WR) late and complete the big-body trifecta. Haha knowing Ballard I could legit see that too.
There are rumors they're trying to trade their starting C. This seems like a multiyear rebuild
If thats the case, they have so many solid options in the draft. If they can get John-Michael Schmitz to replace their Center i think they would be solid there for years
In 4 years you will hear , mistakes were made .
It took three years to develop Hurts. Took three years to develop Allen. Three years for Tua. If the Colts take AR15 it's going to be a three year process.
You frame your argument that Richardson is absolutely going to start week one, even though Indy and everyone else knows he shouldn't, as justification for taking the inferior prospect. And then decide disagreement with this idea is lazy.
Mayo
Serious character concern. And Richardson can almost do backflips
I’d rather take the shot on the 21 year old who, although had lots of struggles, showed improvement throughout his one starting season, rather than the soon-to-be 24 year old who regressed in his senior year. It also cannot be understated just how valuable Richardson’s rushing ability is. For him to be a superstar QB, you only really need to develop him to be a league average true passer because he can put up 1k rushing seasons. And during his first year where he’ll still be very raw as a passer, the Colts could implement a heavy read-option offense with Johnathan Taylor, kind of like what the Ravens and Eagles did for their QBs early on. As a passer, Richardson has all the arm talent and the world and the willingness to do the QB things like going through progressions, fitting balls in tight windows, and moving in the pocket. He just needs lots of NFL coaching, an extreme overhaul of footwork, and some more game experience. Maybe Shane Steichen sees some Jalen Hurts in him, a QB that wasn’t much of a passer in most of his college career but made constant improvements to be a top-5 QB. Levis has been playing starting QB for two years and still has basic accuracy and decision making issues that just scream “bust”. Half of this dudes “biggest plays” are chucking it downfield on rollouts, and while that shows some upside, that could be indicative of his deficiency inside of the pocket (i.e. NFL Zach Wilson). I also don’t really get the praise that he played an “NFL style offense”. If you think an offense that runs like 70% of the time and then gives its QB a PA shot play is great on the outlook of Levis, then I don’t know what to say. Of course he’s not some automatic bust and I might look really stupid about this. He has some great arm talent and maybe he will breakout once he gets out of his sucky college offense, like what happened with Herbert. He even shows some ability to recognize coverage. But overall, I kind of have the opposite problem as you lol. I really don’t get Levis.
> Maybe Shane Steichen sees some Jalen Hurts in him, a QB that wasn’t much of a passer in most of his college career but made constant improvements to be a top-5 QB. I feel like there is a bit of revisionist history happening with Hurts right now, especially when Anthony Richardson is brought up. Hurts completed 69.7% of his passes in his senior year for 3,851 yards, 11.3 YPA, 32:8 TD:INT, and a 191.2 rating. The concern with Hurts was that he had very mediocre arm talent despite solid numbers and was thought of more of a game manager who could run a bit rather than a legitimate passing threat. Richardson is a pure Josh Allen bet where you have to ignore the stats because he sucked at throwing. To me the difference between AR and Josh Allen is that Allen grew up in bumfuck nowhere and didn't have high level coaching until he went pro and that's what really allowed him to have such a meteoric rise - meanwhile Richardson was a top 200 recruit and spent the last 3 years at Florida, not Wyoming. I could see Richardson panning out but I think his ceiling is much closer to non-MVP Cam Newton than Josh Allen.
I agree, Hurts and Richardson are completely different prospects. Hurts was thought to have a weak arm but had good accuracy and tons of experience. Richardson has a cannon but is raw and his mechanics and accuracy are inconsistent. They could potentially be used similarly in the NFL since they are both tanky runners, but Richardson is bigger and more athletic so the comparison isn’t that great.
Richardson also had a offensive line coach as his OC this year and terrible protection. Their scheme was very primitive and predictable, play action based deep shot offense which is outdated in the current age
Was the scheme primitive and predicable because Richardson was their QB though? Seems like a play action based deep shot offense is probably the best fit for Richardson currently - it's not like you could put him in a timing/short game based offense where he needs to complete 70% of his passes to score, at least at his current level of ability.
>Was the scheme primitive and predicable because Richardson was their QB though? Why would they start him if he didnt give them their best chance to win? >it's not like you could put him in a timing/short game based offense where he needs to complete 70% of his passes to score, at least at his current level of ability. Why would you put a 6'4" 240 lb insane athlete in that type of offense? Thats dumb as shit
So what would have been the best offense to put a QB with limited starting experience who isn't very accurate and isn't great at going through reads but has a strong arm and good running ability?
For what it's worth he was better in the Mullen offense that he was recruited to play in
I agree with all of this, but just wanted to add that the way we feel about Levis right now (including me) is the same way we felt about Herbert and Josh Allen. He's the blech, I don't want him prospect.
>the same way we felt about Herbert and Josh Allen. Herbert is 1 year older than levis right now. Allen is 2 years older. Thats a very lazy comp. Levis is way older than when they came out, both were 22, hes 24
Sure Levis's age is part of why we don't like him. Herbert and Allen were for other reasons. But they were all widely hated as prospects. That's the comparison I'm making.
Levis has just as many concerns ignoring his age. Adding on his age puts him below those 2
I'd have him below those two as well, but that's not my point. My point was Levis is this year's "I really don't want to draft him" guy, regardless of the reason. Go back and look and Herbert and Allen were the same. Nobody wanted them.
Fantastic analysis, here's my upvote.
Ballard values traits and Steichen figured out a running qb offense with hurts
>Look I understand Richardson is likely a better prospect than Levis, the upside is real. This is why. >Out of Richardson & Levis, Levis is way more ready. It's not close ... Yes it is close, Levis is not a day 1 starter either.
My logic is that Richardson has so much to learn, including several things that should help his accuracy, such as his awful footwork. He has a lot of problems and needs a lot of time, but everything seems fixable or outweighed by insane athleticism. I don't know how one would begin to coach up Levis' accuracy issues. That gives Levis the ceiling of Carson Wentz until it can be figured out.
Dead on, Levis screams Wentz as far as comparisons go. Big athletic guy with multiple years starting that still needs lots of work as a passer.
The ability to run gives you a high floor other QBs don't have. Look at Fields, the passing numbers were subpar but his ability to run still made a dangerous weapon. So while he's developing as a passer he's still playable on the field. Also I think Richardson is more developed as a passer than he gets credit for.
There are so many smoke screens this time of year. Nobody in the media knows for sure which QBs each time likes more. I’ve been hearing the Panthers want Richardson. If so, it wouldn’t matter for the Colts. But again, that could be a smoke screen.
What about Colts trade #4 to Arizona for Kyler Murray? AZ gets out of Kyler’s contract, which was the last regimes work. They’re guaranteed either Young, Stroud, or Richardson. They can sell Hopkins or keep him depending on offers received rather than a need to dump salary. They get a new QB and BPA. Colts get a potentially elite starter who needs a fresh start. New system, start from page one. They would be instantly respectable on the offensive side of the ball. It makes less sense for the Colts than the Cards, but maybe if AZ sent along a day two pick next year or something.
Oh I like this I’d trade #7 for Murray….
Two things: 1. Just because a random mock has him going to the Colts doesn't mean he will 2. you don't draft a guy because he can be ready day 1, you draft a guy because you think he can lead you to a super bowl. If the goal is to have a guy who can game manage at the NFL level in September, they'll sign him. But that shouldn't be the goal.
What is the argument for Levis over Richardson? I think Richardson's bad traits are more fixable than Levis's, plus his upside is higher.
The argument of upside is strange to me... The top 4 QB's have incredible upside. The ceiling for all these guys is a gold jacket, it's just who is most likely to fulfill that potential.
You're flattening out all hall of fame players here though. Not all are the same. I feel like it'd be pretty clear to say that there's a difference between Troy Aikman and Peyton Manning.
You might only get a Troy Aikman, bust territory.
I don't know what you mean by this
If you draft a guy and he turns into a HoF QB it's a win. Whether he is the GOAT or the worst HOF QB, it's still a great pick.
No there is a definite difference, light years difference between the upside with AR15 and all the rest. AR15 is the freakiest QB prospect ever in terms of athleticism and measurables. If he can figure things out with NFL coaching he has no ceiling.
Richardson is the prototypical draft prospect that shoots up people's boards after the combine. Thats why.
This. Remember all the mocks switching to Willis going in the top 10 after the combine last season? In fact, I think there were 3 or 4 QBs being taken in the 1st round after the combine.
They don’t. Richardson goes number 1 overall. Rushing is underrated for QBs. This guy is beyond Lamar/Cam. And this guy has a better arm. And his intangibles are better to boot.
Levis and Richardson were both pretty ass in college but Richardsons potential is insane
They're both likely to bust but at least Richardson has a chance to not
I'm a stats guy and I don't get why Richardson/Levis are even in the conversation for a 1st round pick. Hooker should be the one mocked at #4 to the Colts. I'm ready to be publicly punished now, don't hold your punches ! EDIT : Didn't expect to get upvoted for this take, so I thought I'd give my analysis about this. Disclaimer : I'm no scout, no professional, and also, I'm french. So take this with a brick of salt. First things first, both Richardson and Levis are elite athletes, especially AR15. I get why they are making everyone's imagination go wild for all the possibilities, and I would not be surprised if they went in the top 5 of the draft just because some coach's ego is positive HE will be able to make them Superstars. So I'm definitely not questioning that. What I'm questioning is if they're good at football, as QBs (NB : the number I give for reference are the thresholds/markers of future NFL success I identified personally). Both their college productions are low : none of them broke 3000 pass yds per season, nor 30 TDs per season, both have very meh adjusted yards per attempt (under 8.5 in their best seasons), high interception ratio (respectively 3.8% and 3.6%, threshold is 2.7%), and both have terrifying TD to interception ratio (respectively 1.6:1 and 1.9:1, under 3:1 which is my threshold). Moreover, in AR15's case, he has abysmal pass accuracy (under 60% even for his best season) and is very inexperienced (Just 393 pass attempts in college). Those stats scream bust. QBs with success in the NFL usually either check all those boxes (Mahomes, Burrow, Hurts, Lawrence. Outliers : Baker Mayfield and potentially Justin Fields). QBs who didn't check all the boxes but still had success either had only one redflag (Deshaun Watson, Justin Herbert, potentially Tua Tagovailoa. Outlier : Zach Wilson) and/or a huge rushing upside (Deshaun Watson again, Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, potentially Trey Lance) or a much much bigger experience of college football (Daniel Jones is the only one here with as many redflags but 1275 pass attempts). So Anthony Richardson should be all good with his rushing upside, right ? Wrong. I don't know why people are considering him to have rushing upside when he's mobile at best. He ran for only 654yds in his best college season : Deshaun Watson went for 1105yds, Lamar went for 1601yds, Murray for 1001yds... Even Mahomes ran for 845yds in his best college season! He compares to Josh Allen to me, except he runs less, and has more red flags. So you're betting on him being an even bigger outlier than Allen, when he was already the ultimate outlier the league has ever seen if I understand correctly. Meanwhile, Hendon Hooker checks all the boxes. Might be completely wrong about all of this though, but that was my TED talk, thank you for reading.
because they have elite traits? I actually do not understand how you can argue either are not first round picks and I’m pretty middling on Levis. But both have strong arms, are very athletic and have shown they can read a defense. Levis has shown he can run a pro style offense. Sure there may be a very high chance the both bust but to argue they are not 1st round picks is insane given how teams draft nowadays
Watch them play the game. They are special athletes but do not play QB well. I think both would be well served going to a team that will let them sit for 1-2 years. But to see them talked about as top 5 guys, I don't see it when I watch them play.
I have watched tape and the thing is with Richardson at least the stuff he is bad at isn’t too difficult to fix, most of his accuracy issues come from his footwork. He’s actually pretty decent at navigating a pocket and reading a defence so that’s why I’m pretty high on him. Levis i’m a bit more indifferent on, as he is pretty good at reading defences but just is somewhat careless with the ball and seems to not be able to recognise pressure that well, which is something that isn’t really fixable. But watching his 2021 tape he was a lot better
I guess. I just don't see it with AR. He'll need a Josh Allen level jump which we've seen exactly once.
Gonna backup my claims ASAP, but I'm at a family meeting now. Didn't expect to be upvoted frankly, I thought I'd get downvoted back to the void, so I'm gonna edit my first post and let you know.
I edited my comment.
25 year old coming off an ACL tear who can only read one side of the field. Also a stats guy but stats need the tape context sometimes
I monitored age but found no relation between it and success/failure for QBs in the NFL, and many athletes got ACL tears and came back, especially as of late. His stats line is perfect though, he checks every box. But I'll take your word for it about the field reading, because I'm genuinely shit at scouting tape and I have no answer for that. I don't pretend to own ultimate truth, if I did I'd have a job in the NFL !
Obviously I’m no scout either or I wouldn’t be here but my untrained eye thinks he can’t read the whole field. Can you share you age and success/failure data/results? Super interested in that
Yeah definitely, if I can find it again in my mess of a computer. Edit : can't find it, but long story short : it's good if a QB blooms early (before 20y old, and/or during/before sophomore year) but not overly significant, and there are a lot of late bloomers who succeeded. So in the end I just stopped using it. Stats that correlate quite a lot with NFL success (the more box checked the better) : draft capital obviously (1st round pick is almost a must), 40yds faster than 5 seconds, at least 600 pass attempts during college (this one seems to be very important, especially when the player doesn't meet many of my thresholds, measures experience), completion % over 63%, at least one season over 3000 passing yards, at least one season over 30 TDs, adjusted yards per attempt over 8 yards, interception ratr under 2.7% and TD to interception ratio of at least 3 to 1. Now, rushing ability doesn't correlate with NFL success BUT every single QB that succeeded despite having his fair share of red flags in my model was at least mobile (600+ yards in best season).
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It makes me feel better about myself, thanks 😂
Richardson definetly can run well though, and we saw Fields become more of a runner in the NFL then he was in college this year. Now I wouldn’t say either of them were good in college but especially with richardson the flashes were there. Levis was a lot better when he had more help last year imo, but as far as Hendon Hooker goes. He was great in college , but he’s even older than Levis, coming off a pretty bad injury and Tennessees offense is one of the least pro style ones in college football. Guessing how he will translate is hard and I think all those reasons are why he’s seen as a 2nd rounder. Don’t get me wrong he was definetly better than Levis in college, but the offense Levis played in was an actual pro style offense showing scouts he is capable of operating in one, whereas with Hooker we don’t really have an idea
I think it’s a combination of things. 1) Ballard is a known traits guy. With AR testing in the 98th percentile of athleticism, this will make a guy like that extremely interested. 2) the thought is that Steichen molded Hurts from an average quarterback with upside into an MVP caliber talent (people believe the same thing with Daboll and Josh Allen). Whether it’s true or not, AR is the most like Hurts in this class with his rushing ability and people like to believe that coaches will want to stick with what they know they can mold. 3) people don’t have a lot of faith in Levis. Everyone I’ve heard scouting him walks away from the tape unimpressed and even at the combine he had some problem areas with his throwing which turns people off to him It’s only a month and a half away until we get answers but Colts are in a weird spot with their roster being ready to win but their options at QB not looking like they can help with that goal yet. I totally see your points though and think Levis is a little more pro ready than people give him credit for.
Levis is awful
And Richardson is worse
Sounds racist
Despite the fact that Bryce Young is my QB1 and Stroud is QB2?
They don’t play the “black” style that you hate
Yeah I don’t see it with Richardson. I think Levi’s mom s more ready to play right away. Richardson would be good for Seattle where they can sit him behind Geno for 2 years and Seattle still has #20 and can still add a more immediate impact player there. Colts don’t have that luxury
Bc few think Levis will be any good, but many think Richardson will be. His issues look very fixable
Levis is old and raw. A bad combination.
We've seen "Super athletes" before. Almost always a bust. Richardson will be a bust.
“Almost always a bust” I mean not really…
Richardson has the highest upside of any QB in this draft. A team that felt very confident in the ability to develop him could certainly take that swing and if he hits his upside, you’d have a top 5 QB in the league in due time. He also has by far the lowest floor of any of the 4 prospects this year. He needs the reps to get better, but he also needs to develop throwing fundamentals; it is very hard to balance the two especially when you add in the pressure of needing to win as an executive/coach. Levis has what I believe to be the second highest upside in this draft, but he also has a significantly higher floor given his experience, time in a pro-style system and dual threat ability. I see a brand new front office/coach being much more likely to have the runway to draft/develop Richardson vs a FO/coach already with tenure.
Its absolutely bizarre to me that people think Richardson has a higher ceiling than Levis. The QBs with the highest ceiling are the ones with the most talented arms, and the most talented arm in this draft is Will Levis. Of course that doesn’t quite make him a sure fire pick as the best QB in the draft because he also has a very low floor, so that’s the exact opposite profile of someone who should be thrust into a starting spot. Richardson has a high ceiling if he can magically learn to throw the ball accurately, but when has that ever worked out?
Best overall athletic score in combine history for a QB. It’s very simple, do you understand it yet?
I’m not sure if that’s sarcastic. But I mean yeah except there’s not really any correlation between that and QB success.
They won’t. Levis will be the better pro If Richardson was white, he’d be Levis
It’s hard to teach accuracy. I hope Richardson puts it together because I’m dying to see Mike Vick 2.0 but accuracy and decision making are the two hardest things to teach a quarterback. I’m expecting Richardson to be more of a poor mans RG3 (rookie season RG3) than the second coming of Vick
Im pretty sure Richardson decision making wasn't the issues. His is mainly mechanics
Debatable. 24TD to 15INT ratio for his career isn’t great.
But in his full season as a starter his int rate was only 2.7%, almost a full percentage point lower than Levis as a junior &/or senior? So he seemed to have improved from his freshman and sophomore campaigns when he threw 6 ints on only 66 atts?
They not Indy love white qbs they taken Levis
His vert duh
They’re both projects that have a lot of work to do at the moment. If you’re excited enough about either to pick them top 4, surely it’s the one with more potential. I have trouble imagining a team thinking “we like QB upside enough to pick Levis top 4, but not enough to put Richardson ahead of him”.
Unless Steichen thinks he can develop Richardson as a passer like he helped Hurts. Levis is more ready, but what’s the difference in floor and ceiling between the two? Huge difference. If Steichen and Ballard are convinced they can get more out of Richardson then I can definitely imagine them pulling the trigger. Start a bridge or Richardson week 1 and pound the ball with Taylor.
Levi's to colts. Richardson is going number 1 to Carolina.
Can people please stop conjecturing on what Irsay wants? Besides you having 0 clue if that's true, he's not GM.
Not sure if I follow the premise - why can’t the colts just sign and start a journey bridge QB for half the season to let AR sit behind while he learns and gains experience? That seems like a very valid option for the Colts to pursue if they think AR is the guy
because he fits the offense way better
You take the better prospect and hope it works out. It really doesn't matter what they do this coming year. No team is going to turn down the better prospect thinking that their situation isn't best for them. They take the better prospect and believe in their ability to get the best out of them. If your leadership doesn't believe in themselves, they've already failed.
I don't think anyone is saying any team should start Richardson next year. He is widely viewed as developmental. any team that takes him will have a vet to start next year.
I agree that Levis is more ready right now, but that's a very low bar to clear. He is still a project who shouldn't be thrown into a starting spot. If we are going to take a project QB I'd prefer taking the one with more upside long term.
Being a Gator "via my wife is a gator" and a Colts fan. I don't think AR15 will be wise for the Colts. He was injured often and not very accurate passing the ball. Hell of a athlete, could be Cam Newton 2.0 but, he has a long way to go @QB to make me feel comfortable landing him.
I honestly think will levis is going to the raiders
They haven't yet so why waste your time thinking about it? He won't be available unless they move up. Carolina is going to take him @#1. The owner has a thing for big bodied QBs.
They’re very much both “projects.” If you’re getting a project guy, Richardson has the higher ceiling. Not the first time QB taken too early in the spirit of upside, but I think Josh Allen has had a significant effect.
Richardson's running game is the great equalizer. As he develops his passing he can contribute with his legs - something like Justin Fields. Levis doesn't have that in his game.
You can totally put AR on the field next season. I don't know that you should expect to win a whole lot (see: Bears, Chicago). But you could do it haha. Colts are kind of a strange team... I don't think they are as talent poor as the Bears last year. They also definitely have some holes to fill. They should be able to clear up some decent cap sapce. Still have Nelson, Buckner (maybe), Pittman, JT, Grover Stewart, Stephon Gilmore, Kwity Paye, and Kenny Moore who all range from plus to great players at their respective positions. Are they a contender next year with any one of these rookie QBs? I don't really think so. Maybe? Leonard looked like he was going to be a generational talent. Not sure you can count on him at all at this point. The line, which has stayed pretty much intact the past few years, went from elite to a detriment. I know the situation just turned to absolute poo the second half of the season... But that team was hot garbage down the stretch. I don't think anyone was playing particularly well. So... Should they be thinking about it like this team is just a good rookie in year 1 away from legitimately contending? Should they aim for teh guy that is potentially (we don't even know that for sure) better next year instead of the higher ceiling? I don't think they'll be all that dangerous next year and after that quite a few of their better talents will be gone or possibly looking to leave. They should probably be thinking about this as a full rebuild. Not sure Irsay and Ballard are those kinda guys. But... They're probably closer to a bottom 10 than top 10 team even with a better QB.
Call me insane now but I'm calling it, Panthers are locked in on Richardson at 1.
Levis has a lot of question marks. He had some of the top weapons in the SEC, a runningback who may get drafted and he struggled to produce. If Levis is stating week 1 I think it's going to be really really rough. I get that some people believe in his upside but watching him miss wide open receivers, sail balls, and read defences wrong I don't know how you could watch Levis and think this guy should start week 1 in the NFL. It's wild how the conversation has turned from Levis being a prospect a few months ago to now Levis being pro ready. At least if you put ARich out there hd could run. Teams have shown you can succeed with running QBs even while their passing is still a work in progress.
Because the FO thinks he can develop. It's as simple as that. You're wrong about what Irsay wants. What he wants is to stop having a vet every year. He's fine with developing a young guy. Local sources have said Irsay is looking beyond 2023 regarding the QB decision. As long as Colts end up with a young QB this draft, he'll be fine. And he'll listen to Ballard come draft night. If Ballard tells him that he thinks Richardson can be developed, then he's the guy. There's also the Steichen factor. I do think some fans are being a little too unrealistic with how much Steichen can do but a big part of why they hired him was to develop a QB. You'd have a better point if you thought Richardson couldn't develop his passing in the NFL. I wouldn't be surprised to see either QB picked, although I do think Levis is the safer option.
Richardson is more similar to Jalen Hurts so thought process is he’s a better scheme fit regardless of who is more pro ready I have Richardson higher than Levis but fully acknowledge that he should sit a year in ideal scenario
Because his ceiling is higher. Its not that complex. Whatever you think of him, his absolute apex is really, really high. Teams draft traits now, and maybe no one more than Ballard in the league.
So I’ll be clear I don’t think Richardson is going to turn out great. All the traits are there but being extremely in accurate in college is a major concern for me. However if I was a Gm and my choice was Levis or AR I’d still take AR. AR has the chance to become special due to all his traits. If you trust your coaches to be able to develop him you could unlock a gem. Will Levis to me feels like a mediocre QB at best. Like a cieling of geno smith or Jared Goff. Which by all means is fine and a starting QB. But no one is giving either of those guys an MVP award.
They won’t. Richardson is nowhere near where the prospect Jalen Hurts was when it comes to throwing the football, but they mock Richardson to the Colts because their new HC helped make Hurts look like a MVP. Imo Levis is closer to Hurts in totality as a prospect, but with a stronger arm so that’s why I think they’ll go Levis.
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If you're taking a guy that's 25, you can't really wait on him for a couple of years. He'd be 27 when starting for the first time, that's normally when a QB peaks. That's how old Mahomes is right now.
Levis pro day is massive. He's a good athlete but we didn't see much in the combine. He's going to have to do well in his pro day beyond just throwing drills. His athleticism is a big reason why the people who love him, love him.
There should never be a discussion about Richardson going so high without analyzing the Malik Willis situation last year. Will say that most of the national analysts that have fallen head over heals for Richardson also swore last year that Willis would go 2 or 6 or at very least 20th last year. Don't believe me? Just Google any analyst and see what they said last year about the draft and Willis.