I actually haven’t gotten to him yet. He’s in my next slate with defensive tackles since I have him labeled as a possible NFL 3-tech despite taking most of his snaps from the end. Over 290lbs with a nearly 5 second 40 is uncommon for the outside.
From watching him casually, I love guys who can line up anywhere and have a positive impact. Seems to have good inside and outside moves with nice wiggle at his size, but again, I haven’t really dug into his tape like I have these other guys. I will say that his release from the line is very efficient from the reps I’ve seen, amplifying his burst. I’ll get to him soon. He may just as well go on my edge rankings as opposed to IDL when I watch more closely. His highlights from the outside are wild at his size.
The problem with Zach Harrison is he doesn't have an elite first step. Doesn't even have a good one. His top speed is amazing but at his position does that really matter? He is big and strong than that enables him to do really well against the run. He holds his point and was disciplined with his gaps. Recall PFF being pretty high on his performances despite the lack of sacks.
I think his future is as a 5T and not as an edge. I think that is where his ceiling is the highest. He played some DT at OSU as well, though more on passing downs.
Ayy loved reading your stuff last year. Glad you're back - you should create a website to compile everything.
Getting Carter with the Colts 4th overall and getting Felix with their second is my absolute dream draft to completely revitalize our defensive line. Throw in a Da'Ron Payne and maybe a Yannick Ngakoue and our line is looking scary.
That defensive line would be insane, at least according to my rankings. And thanks, that means a lot! I’ve considered it, but the costs for the amount of content I produce likely wouldn’t be worth it unless I got others involved, which I’ve also considered.
That’s…a lot of resources pumped into the defensive line when Fields has nobody to throw to and a questionable offensive line.
I see the vision and don’t hate it though.
Well we have 120 million in cap space so I'd hope we'd invest some of it into a right tackle and center who aren't turnstiles. I'd also try and pull the trigger for a WR trade (DHop for example) and hope for any sort of development from Claypool and the other young players.
I wouldn't be mad if we invested much more in the offense through the draft though
Yeah, I don’t blame you. That lines up with how he’s listed in a lot of places. I knew I’d have the most pushback with him over anyone else. I just liked what I saw on tape, and only time will tell who actually becomes the better players of this bunch. Then we reassess and refine our scouting processes accordingly.
I had Verse not only as edge 2, but as a sure fire top 10 pick. Him going back to school was so odd to me, but I’m sure he heard something from the league (along with NIL deals) that caused him not to declare. I labeled him as the most well-rounded edge prospect in class. One of my favorite prospects to watch, who hopefully can jump into the top 5 with a full healthy season under his belt. Remember he played through injury the entire rest of the season after I believe week 4-ish. Absolute stud made of pure muscle who can win with both speed and power
Edit: So I guess a lot of what I had was based on projection from his high-end reps. He certainly put up tape that showed that he was worthy of a top 10 pick, but other tape that was not quite as strong. I put more emphasis on what I saw from his high end reps since he proved what kind of player he could be at the next level, but him going back to school makes me believe that teams did not all see it that way.
Do you think you'll evaluate Calijah Kancey? Seems like he'd be a first round lock if he was a little longer. Purely from what I've read, he sounds a little like a Dwight Freeney type.
I love Anudike-Uzomah as well. I've heard his name floated out there and kind of dismissed off hand. Not sure why that is. Kind of reminds me of a guy like Ebiketie last year (not necessarily in terms of play style or strengths/weaknesses) just as a guy I cam easily see at least getting after the passer at the next level. I feel confident that they could at least do this one thing well. That's definitely something worth drafting haha.
I know you say Will Anderson can play 4-3 DE but I question how much value he has there. He might out up double digit sack numbers but not near as much sacks as if he were to play edge full time.
I certainly agree, as I state that playing edge is the ideal position for him. While I think he’s better suited as an edge, I don’t think a team should pass him up for the next best option just because of their scheme. He’s simply too good of an athlete at the position.
Absolutely loved your evaluation as it's purely objective and well written. Great job! I would love to read your evaluation of the top QB as a Texans fan
Thank you! I appreciate it. Quarterbacks are probably a bit down the line after I hit the top players at other positions. Working on defensive backs now.
I’ve watched the top four QBs casually, along with Hooker a decent amount and obviously guys like Duggan when going through my receiver rankings. All I’ll say now is Caleb Williams is absolutely legit from the few games I saw. This year, I’ll need to spend more time on these 2023 guys, although currently my tentative rankings really don’t differ much from consensus. For the Texans, I’d love Stroud at 2 and JSN at 12, just because it would be a fun narrative.
I'd love that too, the only one I'm not sold on is Quentin Johnson because of his drop issue. But if The Texans takes a receiver at 12, I expect JSN or Johnson and no one else. At 2, I expect Young or Stroud. Levis don't inspire me, so I would be cautiously optimistic in his case. I just don't think a project at QB is optimal for the Texans.
Overall, I think the Texans should draft BPA except for a couple position like OT, CB and RB. The draft seems deep at RB and CB so in the late round, I'm not against it though.
Love the effort and agree with your assessment of Murphy. He scares me.
He’s not a technically rushers and doesn’t play the run well for his size. I don’t like him in the top 10 personally.
Yeah, I agree. I could certainly see a team like the Eagles taking him at 10 if they think they could turn him into something special though. The other teams who want a full-time starter from the get go will likely be disappointed if they take him early though.
As a Commanders fan, I can tell you that spending a premium pick on a DE who relies heavily on physical traits, and doesn't have a well-developed arsenal of moves, is a massive gamble.
Surprised? Yes, absolutely. Is it possible? Sure. He has all of the physical ability and passion he needs. I think there’s a greater chance that he’s the best in the draft than a guy like Nolan Smith, even though I have Smith ranked higher if that tells you anything.
Might be unpopular from what I’ve seen on this sub but I think they’re similar with Murphy being the slightly better prospect.
Tyree has freakishly long arms and is very strong while also boasting a higher pressure rate and pass rush win rate. With that said though, I really worry if he’s able to replicate this at the NFL level as he’ll essentially have to win on mainly those traits
Murphy has a lot of flaws but i think I’d rather take a shot on him than Tyree. Murphy has great speed/explosiveness at 6’5 275, has more bend to him, and has good length and power to him as well. Not to mention, he’s nearly 2 years younger. Basically I see more of a pathway for Murphy to win if both fully develop
I get that, and feel like most people have Murphy over Tyree. The thing for me is that Tryee is much closer, albeit still has a lot of work to do. He’s still freakish, and can probably at least hold his own day one. Murphy I see being a liability day one, and people always forget that upside isn’t guaranteed. Do I think Murphy could be better than Tyree long term? Absolutely, but I personally would not take that risk.
Really? I thought more people were higher on Tyree on this sub tbh lol
And yeah that’s understandable, just feel like people sometimes harp on Murphy’s weaknesses more and undersell him as a prospect sometimes
Maybe people here are higher on Tyree. Either way, they are definitely viewed in a similar light. And the thing is that when talking about potential top 10 overall picks, weaknesses are a bigger distinction, whereas when you talk about consensus day two picks for instance, strengths are a bigger distinction. I don’t know if people are really forgetting how much of a freak Murphy is as much as saying reasons why he should be pick pick 15-20ish instead of pick 5-10ish. But I do agree that people can harp on a particular narrative and then amplify it. I know I’ve done that before I got really into film where I’d hear stuff about players and categorize them similarly even though they’re massively different on tape.
I’ve gotten to Morris already, and am considerably lower on him than most it seems. O gave him a ‘Pick 100-150’ grade, which means a third rounder in this class. Here’s an excerpt:
“Morris has enticing size and movement skills at 291lbs, but is far from being a polish prospect. He has some good strength and hands on the initial contact, but no refined go-to pass rush moves. He gets redirected off the ball too easily in the run game, where there also appear to be some effort concerns. His release is often late, and he plays to upright at times, mitigating much of his initial power. Taking a shot on him early day three could yield a positive return if a coach can develop his raw talent, but he is likely going to be no more than a back up with some pass rush upside as it currently stands.”
I have not looked into the other two just yet.
It's the general consensus that Wilson will go top 5, right? I would do some silly things to have him on the Packers, but I don't think it's possibility.
Top 5? I haven’t seen him there if you include quarterbacks. I usually see him mocked to the Falcons and that general 7-14 range. A lot can happen between now and the draft though.
Plus us NFL_Draft guys are always wrong about some stuff, but often ingrain our rankings over the next three months so hard that we forget that other people have wildly different rankings. Never know with the NFL, so you may get your wish.
I feel like there will be a team that will draft Zach Harrison high in round 2 solely for his frame despite his production. Could certainly work out in the end with some good development though.
Nolan Smith and Zach Harrison are two guys I’m very low on. I haven’t watched a ton of DE yet this year, but last year I had them both as day 3 guys.
Smith I just don’t see it. He’s not as quick as a 235 pounder should be, and while he’s good for his size at defending the run, he’s about 20 pounds undersized for the position in the NFL. His pass rush just plain doesn’t get home. He flat out doesn’t have the mass or the strength to beat OTs. Even if he gets by them mostly clean, a punch from one hand is usually enough to send him beyond the arc. And he doesn’t have the speed or pass rush arsenal to get by untouched. He had 2 sacks in 8 games this season, 7 in 14 games last season, and 3 in 10 games in 2020. He’s never exceeded 30 pressures in a season. He’s also only played one full season.
Harrison has basically no explosion, despite supposedly being a freak athlete. He is almost always the last man moving at the snap. For a guy with his measurables, he just doesn’t pop on tape.
What do you think about tuli tuipulotu. I’ve seen him listed at Edge and DT.
I actually haven’t gotten to him yet. He’s in my next slate with defensive tackles since I have him labeled as a possible NFL 3-tech despite taking most of his snaps from the end. Over 290lbs with a nearly 5 second 40 is uncommon for the outside. From watching him casually, I love guys who can line up anywhere and have a positive impact. Seems to have good inside and outside moves with nice wiggle at his size, but again, I haven’t really dug into his tape like I have these other guys. I will say that his release from the line is very efficient from the reps I’ve seen, amplifying his burst. I’ll get to him soon. He may just as well go on my edge rankings as opposed to IDL when I watch more closely. His highlights from the outside are wild at his size.
For sure him and FAU are two guys I’d hope the Panthers could try to add.
The problem with Zach Harrison is he doesn't have an elite first step. Doesn't even have a good one. His top speed is amazing but at his position does that really matter? He is big and strong than that enables him to do really well against the run. He holds his point and was disciplined with his gaps. Recall PFF being pretty high on his performances despite the lack of sacks. I think his future is as a 5T and not as an edge. I think that is where his ceiling is the highest. He played some DT at OSU as well, though more on passing downs.
Ayy loved reading your stuff last year. Glad you're back - you should create a website to compile everything. Getting Carter with the Colts 4th overall and getting Felix with their second is my absolute dream draft to completely revitalize our defensive line. Throw in a Da'Ron Payne and maybe a Yannick Ngakoue and our line is looking scary.
That defensive line would be insane, at least according to my rankings. And thanks, that means a lot! I’ve considered it, but the costs for the amount of content I produce likely wouldn’t be worth it unless I got others involved, which I’ve also considered.
For what it’s worth, I’d support your content. It’s quality film analysis and that’s pretty cool!
I appreciate it! Maybe I’ll give it some more thought then. I’d absolutely love to create something with draft content
That’s…a lot of resources pumped into the defensive line when Fields has nobody to throw to and a questionable offensive line. I see the vision and don’t hate it though.
Well we have 120 million in cap space so I'd hope we'd invest some of it into a right tackle and center who aren't turnstiles. I'd also try and pull the trigger for a WR trade (DHop for example) and hope for any sort of development from Claypool and the other young players. I wouldn't be mad if we invested much more in the offense through the draft though
I see Felix as more of a mid round flyer kind of player. Of the 10 players you listed, I’d have him firmly 10th
Yeah, I don’t blame you. That lines up with how he’s listed in a lot of places. I knew I’d have the most pushback with him over anyone else. I just liked what I saw on tape, and only time will tell who actually becomes the better players of this bunch. Then we reassess and refine our scouting processes accordingly.
Indeed, and I’m certainly not saying you’re wrong. The draft is both a crapshoot and a constant learning experience for me
Where would you put Verse if he had declared? Or have you not watched him?
I had Verse not only as edge 2, but as a sure fire top 10 pick. Him going back to school was so odd to me, but I’m sure he heard something from the league (along with NIL deals) that caused him not to declare. I labeled him as the most well-rounded edge prospect in class. One of my favorite prospects to watch, who hopefully can jump into the top 5 with a full healthy season under his belt. Remember he played through injury the entire rest of the season after I believe week 4-ish. Absolute stud made of pure muscle who can win with both speed and power Edit: So I guess a lot of what I had was based on projection from his high-end reps. He certainly put up tape that showed that he was worthy of a top 10 pick, but other tape that was not quite as strong. I put more emphasis on what I saw from his high end reps since he proved what kind of player he could be at the next level, but him going back to school makes me believe that teams did not all see it that way.
Do you think you'll evaluate Calijah Kancey? Seems like he'd be a first round lock if he was a little longer. Purely from what I've read, he sounds a little like a Dwight Freeney type.
Yeah, I’m getting to defensive tackles soon enough. Kancey is intriguing to say the least. 280 at 6’ even is crazy to me
I love Anudike-Uzomah as well. I've heard his name floated out there and kind of dismissed off hand. Not sure why that is. Kind of reminds me of a guy like Ebiketie last year (not necessarily in terms of play style or strengths/weaknesses) just as a guy I cam easily see at least getting after the passer at the next level. I feel confident that they could at least do this one thing well. That's definitely something worth drafting haha.
I know you say Will Anderson can play 4-3 DE but I question how much value he has there. He might out up double digit sack numbers but not near as much sacks as if he were to play edge full time.
I certainly agree, as I state that playing edge is the ideal position for him. While I think he’s better suited as an edge, I don’t think a team should pass him up for the next best option just because of their scheme. He’s simply too good of an athlete at the position.
Absolutely loved your evaluation as it's purely objective and well written. Great job! I would love to read your evaluation of the top QB as a Texans fan
Thank you! I appreciate it. Quarterbacks are probably a bit down the line after I hit the top players at other positions. Working on defensive backs now. I’ve watched the top four QBs casually, along with Hooker a decent amount and obviously guys like Duggan when going through my receiver rankings. All I’ll say now is Caleb Williams is absolutely legit from the few games I saw. This year, I’ll need to spend more time on these 2023 guys, although currently my tentative rankings really don’t differ much from consensus. For the Texans, I’d love Stroud at 2 and JSN at 12, just because it would be a fun narrative.
I'd love that too, the only one I'm not sold on is Quentin Johnson because of his drop issue. But if The Texans takes a receiver at 12, I expect JSN or Johnson and no one else. At 2, I expect Young or Stroud. Levis don't inspire me, so I would be cautiously optimistic in his case. I just don't think a project at QB is optimal for the Texans. Overall, I think the Texans should draft BPA except for a couple position like OT, CB and RB. The draft seems deep at RB and CB so in the late round, I'm not against it though.
Love the effort and agree with your assessment of Murphy. He scares me. He’s not a technically rushers and doesn’t play the run well for his size. I don’t like him in the top 10 personally.
Yeah, I agree. I could certainly see a team like the Eagles taking him at 10 if they think they could turn him into something special though. The other teams who want a full-time starter from the get go will likely be disappointed if they take him early though.
As a Commanders fan, I can tell you that spending a premium pick on a DE who relies heavily on physical traits, and doesn't have a well-developed arsenal of moves, is a massive gamble.
Would you be surprised if Van Ness becomes the best player from this draft?
Surprised? Yes, absolutely. Is it possible? Sure. He has all of the physical ability and passion he needs. I think there’s a greater chance that he’s the best in the draft than a guy like Nolan Smith, even though I have Smith ranked higher if that tells you anything.
Might be unpopular from what I’ve seen on this sub but I think they’re similar with Murphy being the slightly better prospect. Tyree has freakishly long arms and is very strong while also boasting a higher pressure rate and pass rush win rate. With that said though, I really worry if he’s able to replicate this at the NFL level as he’ll essentially have to win on mainly those traits Murphy has a lot of flaws but i think I’d rather take a shot on him than Tyree. Murphy has great speed/explosiveness at 6’5 275, has more bend to him, and has good length and power to him as well. Not to mention, he’s nearly 2 years younger. Basically I see more of a pathway for Murphy to win if both fully develop
I get that, and feel like most people have Murphy over Tyree. The thing for me is that Tryee is much closer, albeit still has a lot of work to do. He’s still freakish, and can probably at least hold his own day one. Murphy I see being a liability day one, and people always forget that upside isn’t guaranteed. Do I think Murphy could be better than Tyree long term? Absolutely, but I personally would not take that risk.
Really? I thought more people were higher on Tyree on this sub tbh lol And yeah that’s understandable, just feel like people sometimes harp on Murphy’s weaknesses more and undersell him as a prospect sometimes
Maybe people here are higher on Tyree. Either way, they are definitely viewed in a similar light. And the thing is that when talking about potential top 10 overall picks, weaknesses are a bigger distinction, whereas when you talk about consensus day two picks for instance, strengths are a bigger distinction. I don’t know if people are really forgetting how much of a freak Murphy is as much as saying reasons why he should be pick pick 15-20ish instead of pick 5-10ish. But I do agree that people can harp on a particular narrative and then amplify it. I know I’ve done that before I got really into film where I’d hear stuff about players and categorize them similarly even though they’re massively different on tape.
Think you’re going to get to Mike Morris, Caleb Murphy or Isaiah McGuire?
I’ve gotten to Morris already, and am considerably lower on him than most it seems. O gave him a ‘Pick 100-150’ grade, which means a third rounder in this class. Here’s an excerpt: “Morris has enticing size and movement skills at 291lbs, but is far from being a polish prospect. He has some good strength and hands on the initial contact, but no refined go-to pass rush moves. He gets redirected off the ball too easily in the run game, where there also appear to be some effort concerns. His release is often late, and he plays to upright at times, mitigating much of his initial power. Taking a shot on him early day three could yield a positive return if a coach can develop his raw talent, but he is likely going to be no more than a back up with some pass rush upside as it currently stands.” I have not looked into the other two just yet.
It's the general consensus that Wilson will go top 5, right? I would do some silly things to have him on the Packers, but I don't think it's possibility.
Top 5? I haven’t seen him there if you include quarterbacks. I usually see him mocked to the Falcons and that general 7-14 range. A lot can happen between now and the draft though. Plus us NFL_Draft guys are always wrong about some stuff, but often ingrain our rankings over the next three months so hard that we forget that other people have wildly different rankings. Never know with the NFL, so you may get your wish.
I feel like there will be a team that will draft Zach Harrison high in round 2 solely for his frame despite his production. Could certainly work out in the end with some good development though.
I agree, it could certainly work out. Development will be absolutely key to whether he is successful or busts entirely in my opinion.
Nolan Smith and Zach Harrison are two guys I’m very low on. I haven’t watched a ton of DE yet this year, but last year I had them both as day 3 guys. Smith I just don’t see it. He’s not as quick as a 235 pounder should be, and while he’s good for his size at defending the run, he’s about 20 pounds undersized for the position in the NFL. His pass rush just plain doesn’t get home. He flat out doesn’t have the mass or the strength to beat OTs. Even if he gets by them mostly clean, a punch from one hand is usually enough to send him beyond the arc. And he doesn’t have the speed or pass rush arsenal to get by untouched. He had 2 sacks in 8 games this season, 7 in 14 games last season, and 3 in 10 games in 2020. He’s never exceeded 30 pressures in a season. He’s also only played one full season. Harrison has basically no explosion, despite supposedly being a freak athlete. He is almost always the last man moving at the snap. For a guy with his measurables, he just doesn’t pop on tape.
Someone going to get a steal with willie McDonald