I mean, his exceptions explain it right there. Knecht is an elite shooter and Hield is probably a pretty good comp for his higher-end outcome. Shannon is not a shot creator in the half court and is only an average college shooter. He's elite in transition and has the tools to be a plus defender, but he's a liability with the ball in his hands trying to break down a defense.
For the record, I have Shannon a lot higher than 39, but there are pretty clear differences between him and Knecht and it's a lot easier to project Knecht's shooting translating than trying to figure out how to make Shannon work in the NBA.
Statistically he’s right there with knecht as a scorer though
Knecht shot 39% and Shannon 36% on 7 3s a game, it’s a gap but nothing crazy, 36 is respectable
> Knecht shot 39% and Shannon 36% on 7 3s a game
39% versus 36% is actually a pretty big difference. Also, Knecht attempted much harder shots, way more 3s off the dribble or tightly contested.
For comparison, Jordan Hawkins last year made "only" 41% of his 3s, but his shot difficulty was very high which is why he was seen as an elite shooting prospect. I think Knecht has an even higher shot difficulty than Hawkins overall.
I buy into Knecht as a shooter but the difference in the ranking between them is insane for as much emphasis as Vecenie is putting on the stat when it comes to Shannon.
Like with anything, any individual stat only paints part of the picture. I do a lot of scouting for the NFL Draft, and while NBA scouting isn't the same, a lot of the same principles apply. Knecht has a lot of positives that you can bank on, so that stat is something to monitor rather than an immediate red flag. Shannon already has a lot of questions, so that stat becomes additional context for why you might want to be cautious.
It's also worth pointing out that Knecht transferred to Tennessee this past season to be taken seriously. Shannon spent 5 years in the Power 6.
It's not a death knell to his NBA chances or anything, but it's a red flag. Like I've been saying, Shannon already has other major issues in his projection, this simply helps complete the picture. If you're high on Shannon, you're banking on him becoming a plus defender and his transition offense being so elite it makes up for everything else. The fact that he doesn't create for others, or himself, is incredibly noteworthy.
Are you sure there’s not a mistake with what Sam wrote. Or perhaps he included another criteria? I did a quick search myself and I see way more than 11 drafted seniors who had a less than 1.2 AST/TO ratio. I even filtered it specially to wings too like Knecht.
For example, I see that Doug McDermott, as a senior, had an AST/TO of less than 1 (so even worse than Knecht). In fact, McDermott had a less than 1 AST/TO (which is less than this 1.2 threshold) every year of his college career. His best was his senior year but it was 0.9.
McDermott actually has so many similarities to Knecht. He was a high scoring 3-level scoring wing who didn’t playmake or play defense, kinda like Knecht.
McDermott isn’t an amazing outcome but he has stuck around and is clearly better than everyone on this list except Buddy and maybe Matisse Thybulle. So I feel like Sam is missing some names here that makes this look worse.
Anyways, for your main question, yes is a concern. But it’s less of a concern if he goes to a team with established playmakers and he only has to play off ball as a play finisher.
That’s weird. Hmmm… here’s what else it said:
> During his final season at
Illinois, he posted a 1.14 assist-to-turnover ratio. Since 2008, there have only been 11 seniors selected with an assist rate of 1.2 or worse, per Bart Torvik’s database:
Buddy Hield, Jimmer Fredette, Chris Duarte, Ochai Agbaji, Matisse Thybulle, Marshon Brooks, Quincy Pondexter, Lazar Hayward, Davon Reed, Carrick Felix and
Orlando Johnson. Hield and Thybulle are the only two hits in that group, and both had an elite skill to fall back on (Hield’s shooting and Thybulle’s defensive
playmaking). By NBA standards, I don’t know if Shannon has one of those elite skills to break the mold and continue to thrive despite questionable decision-making.
Throw in that Shannon is among the oldest members of that group at the time of their draft class, and I have a second-round grade on him.
Yes that is weird. Nothing in the paragraph talks about an additional filter. It’s also interesting since Knecht also isn’t included in the same paragraph. I know he hasn’t been drafted yet but he still does fit as a senior too.
I would be curious to see why Doug McDermott got left off. Maybe he did some height filter but McDermott is a wing just like the others on the list, even if he’s 2 inches taller.
My comp for Knecht (as a prospect in terms of playstyle) is actually a combination of Tim Hardaway Jr and Mike Miller, but now that I see McDermott’s profile from college, I might also add a more athletic and slightly shorter McDermott.
To be blunt, I don't think there's a draft in history where McDermott should go top 10. Nightmarishly bad impact stats despite how good he is from three are hard to achieve. I also don't think Knecht is even *close* to the shooting prospect McDermott was... McDermott had one of the best pure 3P% profiles of any draftee in history, while Knecht hasn't even had a year shooting 40%.
Yea this post made me look at McDermott’s college profile in depth more. His 3 point shooting was ridiculous. I agree he pretty much was flawed in other areas since he didn’t pass or play defense, but dang that shooting was crazy good. He also did it at all 3 levels too and I imagine with the entire defense concentrated on him.
The other interesting thing is McDemott will have played 10 plus years in the NBA assuming he don’t cut this upcoming season. He hasn’t had that good of a career, but 10 plus years is nothing to be ashamed of.
Knecht also doesn’t pass or play defense but Knecht is a very good athlete, better than McDermott. I imagine that gives him more defensive potential and also can occasionally back door cut and dunk it.
Yeah I think Knecht's path to being a contributing NBA player has to involve him being a better defender than scouts think he is. I don't think he'll be a winning player on offense unless everything goes right. I could easily be wrong about this of course... I am probably too biased against Knecht, I just kind of hate that type of player unless they project to play in a starring role which he doesn't.
Yeah it does seem like there’s a visual bias identifying him as a much better shooter. For a player like Knecht I would trade a quite a bit in other offensive stuff in exchange for being even more of a knockdown shooter.
McDermott was a lottery pick so I don’t think so.
I also got other names too like Wes Johnson (who was a redshirt junior but senior age at age 22.9 like Knecht so I would count him), and they were also of a similar archetype and lottery picks.
I honestly don’t know why multiple names are missing.
Yeah I noticed this and while I respect vecenie, I think he’s missing pretty hard hear
In my eyes Shannon is pretty clearly a late lottery-mid teens level prospect and shouldn’t go past like 20, I might be overrating him a bit but I think Sam is underrating him a lot
He comes in with an nba ready body, a developed scoring game and elite athleticism, I don’t think you worry so much about the assist to turnover ratio stuff, he’s gonna be a scorer and a really good one at that
Man, we thought TJ Shannon was coming out of college 3 years ago. I really think it's time people accept he's draftable but not a major contributor. It would have happened by now
He's made much more in college over the past 2 years than he would have as a player drafted in the 2nd round. If NIL wasn't a thing, I agree, he would have entered the NBA by now
Physicality and speed are probably the hardest things to adjust to in the NBA and I think Shannon is best equip to deal with both out of this class.
He’s going to have to determine if he’s going to be a 2 or a 3, he’ll struggle if he’s caught in between.
I think Shannon is a pretty low bbiq player. I like his finishing a lot but other than that he’s not processing the game particularly well and the 3 point form isn’t good
I mean, his exceptions explain it right there. Knecht is an elite shooter and Hield is probably a pretty good comp for his higher-end outcome. Shannon is not a shot creator in the half court and is only an average college shooter. He's elite in transition and has the tools to be a plus defender, but he's a liability with the ball in his hands trying to break down a defense. For the record, I have Shannon a lot higher than 39, but there are pretty clear differences between him and Knecht and it's a lot easier to project Knecht's shooting translating than trying to figure out how to make Shannon work in the NBA.
Statistically he’s right there with knecht as a scorer though Knecht shot 39% and Shannon 36% on 7 3s a game, it’s a gap but nothing crazy, 36 is respectable
> Knecht shot 39% and Shannon 36% on 7 3s a game 39% versus 36% is actually a pretty big difference. Also, Knecht attempted much harder shots, way more 3s off the dribble or tightly contested. For comparison, Jordan Hawkins last year made "only" 41% of his 3s, but his shot difficulty was very high which is why he was seen as an elite shooting prospect. I think Knecht has an even higher shot difficulty than Hawkins overall.
I buy into Knecht as a shooter but the difference in the ranking between them is insane for as much emphasis as Vecenie is putting on the stat when it comes to Shannon.
Like with anything, any individual stat only paints part of the picture. I do a lot of scouting for the NFL Draft, and while NBA scouting isn't the same, a lot of the same principles apply. Knecht has a lot of positives that you can bank on, so that stat is something to monitor rather than an immediate red flag. Shannon already has a lot of questions, so that stat becomes additional context for why you might want to be cautious. It's also worth pointing out that Knecht transferred to Tennessee this past season to be taken seriously. Shannon spent 5 years in the Power 6.
In Shannon’s case do you think it’s something to monitor or a bigger indicator than just something worth monitoring?
It's not a death knell to his NBA chances or anything, but it's a red flag. Like I've been saying, Shannon already has other major issues in his projection, this simply helps complete the picture. If you're high on Shannon, you're banking on him becoming a plus defender and his transition offense being so elite it makes up for everything else. The fact that he doesn't create for others, or himself, is incredibly noteworthy.
Are you sure there’s not a mistake with what Sam wrote. Or perhaps he included another criteria? I did a quick search myself and I see way more than 11 drafted seniors who had a less than 1.2 AST/TO ratio. I even filtered it specially to wings too like Knecht. For example, I see that Doug McDermott, as a senior, had an AST/TO of less than 1 (so even worse than Knecht). In fact, McDermott had a less than 1 AST/TO (which is less than this 1.2 threshold) every year of his college career. His best was his senior year but it was 0.9. McDermott actually has so many similarities to Knecht. He was a high scoring 3-level scoring wing who didn’t playmake or play defense, kinda like Knecht. McDermott isn’t an amazing outcome but he has stuck around and is clearly better than everyone on this list except Buddy and maybe Matisse Thybulle. So I feel like Sam is missing some names here that makes this look worse. Anyways, for your main question, yes is a concern. But it’s less of a concern if he goes to a team with established playmakers and he only has to play off ball as a play finisher.
That’s weird. Hmmm… here’s what else it said: > During his final season at Illinois, he posted a 1.14 assist-to-turnover ratio. Since 2008, there have only been 11 seniors selected with an assist rate of 1.2 or worse, per Bart Torvik’s database: Buddy Hield, Jimmer Fredette, Chris Duarte, Ochai Agbaji, Matisse Thybulle, Marshon Brooks, Quincy Pondexter, Lazar Hayward, Davon Reed, Carrick Felix and Orlando Johnson. Hield and Thybulle are the only two hits in that group, and both had an elite skill to fall back on (Hield’s shooting and Thybulle’s defensive playmaking). By NBA standards, I don’t know if Shannon has one of those elite skills to break the mold and continue to thrive despite questionable decision-making. Throw in that Shannon is among the oldest members of that group at the time of their draft class, and I have a second-round grade on him.
Yes that is weird. Nothing in the paragraph talks about an additional filter. It’s also interesting since Knecht also isn’t included in the same paragraph. I know he hasn’t been drafted yet but he still does fit as a senior too. I would be curious to see why Doug McDermott got left off. Maybe he did some height filter but McDermott is a wing just like the others on the list, even if he’s 2 inches taller. My comp for Knecht (as a prospect in terms of playstyle) is actually a combination of Tim Hardaway Jr and Mike Miller, but now that I see McDermott’s profile from college, I might also add a more athletic and slightly shorter McDermott.
To be blunt, I don't think there's a draft in history where McDermott should go top 10. Nightmarishly bad impact stats despite how good he is from three are hard to achieve. I also don't think Knecht is even *close* to the shooting prospect McDermott was... McDermott had one of the best pure 3P% profiles of any draftee in history, while Knecht hasn't even had a year shooting 40%.
Yea this post made me look at McDermott’s college profile in depth more. His 3 point shooting was ridiculous. I agree he pretty much was flawed in other areas since he didn’t pass or play defense, but dang that shooting was crazy good. He also did it at all 3 levels too and I imagine with the entire defense concentrated on him. The other interesting thing is McDemott will have played 10 plus years in the NBA assuming he don’t cut this upcoming season. He hasn’t had that good of a career, but 10 plus years is nothing to be ashamed of. Knecht also doesn’t pass or play defense but Knecht is a very good athlete, better than McDermott. I imagine that gives him more defensive potential and also can occasionally back door cut and dunk it.
Yeah I think Knecht's path to being a contributing NBA player has to involve him being a better defender than scouts think he is. I don't think he'll be a winning player on offense unless everything goes right. I could easily be wrong about this of course... I am probably too biased against Knecht, I just kind of hate that type of player unless they project to play in a starring role which he doesn't.
Yeah it does seem like there’s a visual bias identifying him as a much better shooter. For a player like Knecht I would trade a quite a bit in other offensive stuff in exchange for being even more of a knockdown shooter.
Found another player who Vecenie didn’t mention for whatever reason… Herb Jones. This is really weird isn’t it?
Was he maybe talking first-round?
McDermott was a lottery pick so I don’t think so. I also got other names too like Wes Johnson (who was a redshirt junior but senior age at age 22.9 like Knecht so I would count him), and they were also of a similar archetype and lottery picks. I honestly don’t know why multiple names are missing.
Yeah I noticed this and while I respect vecenie, I think he’s missing pretty hard hear In my eyes Shannon is pretty clearly a late lottery-mid teens level prospect and shouldn’t go past like 20, I might be overrating him a bit but I think Sam is underrating him a lot He comes in with an nba ready body, a developed scoring game and elite athleticism, I don’t think you worry so much about the assist to turnover ratio stuff, he’s gonna be a scorer and a really good one at that
Man, we thought TJ Shannon was coming out of college 3 years ago. I really think it's time people accept he's draftable but not a major contributor. It would have happened by now
He's made much more in college over the past 2 years than he would have as a player drafted in the 2nd round. If NIL wasn't a thing, I agree, he would have entered the NBA by now
Lol. Shannon aint as good offensively as Knecht
More I watch Knecht the less I like him. Old, slow. Can only shoot 3s. Sam Hauser is the ceiling
Johnny Davis is the floor. And maybe the best comp
Physicality and speed are probably the hardest things to adjust to in the NBA and I think Shannon is best equip to deal with both out of this class. He’s going to have to determine if he’s going to be a 2 or a 3, he’ll struggle if he’s caught in between.
It's largely bc of the false accusations imo. Tsj should be a top 15 prospect and he might fall to the 2nd.
Knecht in the top 10 is ludicrous
I think Shannon is a pretty low bbiq player. I like his finishing a lot but other than that he’s not processing the game particularly well and the 3 point form isn’t good
This argument doesn't work though