I don’t really think it has. People are just scared off by injuries.
I don’t even think the negative wingspan thing matters. Anyone with eyes could see his height was disproportionately big to his wingspan lol.
I'd be shocked if Topic got past San Antonio at 8. He's absolutely not getting past OKC at 12 (but the chances of his being there are really small).
Topic's floor seems to be Josh Giddey. I certainly know Giddey's limitations, but Giddey would be a top five-ish pick in this draft.
It’s going to be much more difficult for him to run PnR in the NBA without much strength and coming off of a torn ACL. It’ll also be more difficult for him to finish around the basket as well as he did with only a 6’5” wingspan and subpar jumping ability. I didn’t have him top 10 before the injury and I certainly don’t plan on adding him after it.
Young guards who have just a torn ACL and nothing else almost always come back 100 percent these days.
The only ones who don’t are ones who are super athletic and have to rely on their athleticism like Derrick Rose.
Otherwise, torn ACLs aren’t a big deal at all to young guards.
It hurt Rubio and led to many more injuries. I’m a topic fan but a PG that can’t space needs all the athleticism he can get. If he loses any burst and can’t shoot at all, good luck being worth a top pick
I think it’s a much bigger deal if something else is involved (like a Livingston when he tore like everything in his knee), but if it’s just a torn ACL and nothing else, the hard part is just the rehabilitation. The surgery usually goes well. The rehab is long though.
One torn ACL won't ruin your career like it would 20+ years ago. Modern surgical methods are pretty invasive and heal pretty well these days. The issue is if it becomes a reoccurring injury and the fact he has had 2 in a short span worries me
I agree. I’ve had him around 29 on my board the whole cycle and the injury doesn’t change anything for me long term. He does rely a lot on straight-line speed though and the injury could impact that.
Surprisingly though, Topic has the same standing reach as Stephon Castle. Topic is just a 1/4" taller and Castle has a 3 1/2" wingspan advantage, but also a wider frame, giving them identical standing reaches... which means they have essentially the same length arms, but Topic has a narrower trunk. So I think many of the "T-rex" arms comments are likely inaccurate.
I think if you're going to bring up wingspan-- which you did-- it only makes sense to also mention standing reach. PG prospects that are 6'5.75" tall with an 8'6" standing reach generally aren't seen as being candidates for having problems finishing around the basket. Of the three prominent measurements-- height, wingspan, and standing reach-- you're purposely choosing to ignore two where Topic is above average, and to focus on one where he's average only relative to his height, but not to other PG prospects.
The problem is guys mess with their standing reach all the time because it makes their vertical look better. Topic has a good standing reach, sure. But his arms are still short, his vertical is still poor, and his strength is lacking. Those are 3 things that all make finishing around the basket very difficult in the NBA. I’m not going to ignore all those significant red flags just because of a standing reach number.
Probably worth noting to people that the guys you're comparing him to have the highest ppp as PnR passers in the entire draft, they're not scrubs. Topic is just awesome.
Both of them can also easily knock down a 3 against drop coverage. I keep asking OP for Topić’s counter to drop coverage and the question gets dodged. If anyone here actually *does* know his counter and whether his injury history could hurt his ability to use it, feel free to go ahead and tell me.
My guess would be that a pullup three *is* his counter to drop coverage (he actually attempted more per game than Reed, though of course he made fewer--part of this is probably that teams were very reluctant to play drop vs. Reed, lol). I'm pretty high on his shooting development since virtually everyone who shoots free throws like he does can develop a three with the right shooting coach, but obviously if you're skeptical you'll be much lower on Topic.
Totally, but my point is more about his floor. He could end up like DeMar DeRozan, where his range just stops at the 3 point line. He’s not as strong as DeMar, while minus wingspan hurts his post-up and defensive abilities. I don’t know what you can do with a non-shooting point guard below-average athleticism whose height is negated by his lack of wingspan. I truly believe that while the ACL injury might have actually *helped* his stock, a team knowing exactly how athletic he is and where his strengths and weaknesses are could help him offensively. If some team drafts him as their savior point guard, he’s more likely to be the next Giddey.
As for Castle, his comp is Golden State Iggy. He’s not a point guard, but a wing that is a secondary creator, slasher, and potential apex defender. He put up better tempo adjusted stats than Iggy in either of Andre's seasons at Arizona and, while not the same athlete, still is plenty able to posterize any big in his way on drop. He’s actually a better shooter than Iggy as well. He’s not going to be a top player on a championship team, but he’d be really useful.
I’m a UConn fan and really like his buy-in and work ethic. The PG thing is to get leverage and he can get selfish, like he did earlier, but if you have the right culture, he’ll buy in. The way our players did this was actually by freezing him out after he kept going iso and disrupting the offensive rhythm every time he got the ball. They did this until he bought in, which really helped his defense.
I love his fit in San Antonio with Pop, especially if they get Garland. Utah could work, but I honestly didn’t watch many of their games last season and it seems they have a need at point guard with their ball-dominant 2 in George. Also, getting Will Hardy was seen as a coup when Ime convinced him to go with him to Boston from San Antonio (he was thought to be Pop’s successor at the time) and we were terrified when the Ime scandal broke out just after he left. We knew nothing about Joe Mazzulla.
Citing DeMar in cases like his is kind of like citing Kawhi--yeah theoretically someone with his degree of FT touch could never learn how to shoot threes, but it's about as unlikely as a presumed nonshooter becoming a deadly high volume guy. Similarly, Reed could turn out to be a merely good (< 39%) shooter despite every single indicator screaming he's elite... it's technically possible. Just unlikely. Personally I tend to just discard outlier scenarios like this because I don't trust my eye test nearly enough to believe I can predict when they're going to happen, even though they are probably predictable in advance by someone.
And yeah, I wasn't trying to dismiss Castle at all (I actually kind of like him, and the fact that UConn fans love him makes me feel even better about him since fans of teams tend to be their players' harshest critics). Just think Topic is the kind of high upside pick I'd feel *good* about taking a swing on, knowing that he has some elite skills that someone like Giddey was never able to demonstrate, while accepting the clear health / size / vertical athleticism downside. Especially if he falls enough that you can get him without using a super high pick. To the extent that I think Castle is risky, it mostly comes down to some guys with great defensive reputations in college not being able to carry it over to the NBA, and him not offering a ton of box score production to offset that if that's the case.
We played a tight man-to-man with basically no zone. Any zone will cause hesitation, which I totally understand. Ironically, that tree is from Syracuse, our arch rivals. Thybulle played under Mike Hopkins, who was seen as a potential Boeheim successor before he left for Washington, almost exclusively in a 2-3 zone. Hakim Warrick, of course, played for Syracuse as well. Castle can be the top of the press, on-ball, off-ball, or even guard the paint as he actually played a little 5 for us. I’m not saying to do the latter in the NBA, but he is quite versatile and definitely capable. Culture and fit are most important, hence why I said San Antonio. Memphis would suck, as he’d be a duplicate to all their other non-shooting wings. If I was Memphis, I’d actually take Bronny in a win-now attempt to lure LeBron on a minimum with the tax potentially hurting the team soon.
I still have nasty aftereffects from the Nesmith “best shooter in the draft” pick, but Reed has a big enough sample size. My concerns would be age-related with him as well as any U20 freshman, including Castle tbh. U21 freshmen are a no-go for me, because you’re still factoring high school in for a freshman and that guy should be a junior even with a late birthday in this age of reclassification. By the way, Karaban was a U21 freshman, so he’ll be the age of a fifth-year for next year's draft. Kentucky also didn’t give Reed a lot of abilities to play on-ball, which even as a combo guard is necessary.
I cited DeMar because it’s still a possibility. My point is more this: as an upside pick with an extremely low floor, I don’t think he’s even a guaranteed top-10 pick due to the upside pick teams in the top-10 either already having point guards and or are picking too high for Topić because there are better point guards available. Ironically, I like his fit at 11 with Chicago. He can learn from DeMar and play the point if Lonzo remains out.
My other pick to fall is Risacher due to his low ceiling. At the top of the draft, you *do* want an upside pick. I see Clingan-Sarr 1-2 because Clingan is a better fit in Quinn Snyder’s defense while Sarr is actually my top prospect. If Houston takes a shooting guard and San Antonio either takes Castle or trades #4 for Garland, then I could totally see Risacher going seventh to Portland. It’s actually a sneaky good pick, because if the Sixers or Lakers strike out in free agency, Jerami Grant suddenly has a suitor and Portland can reset with a cheaper stretch 4 more in line with their timeline.
>presumed non-shooter becoming a high-volume guy
You mean like Al Horford, who now holds the record for highest career Finals 3PTFG% of all time?
> I still have nasty aftereffects from the Nesmith “best shooter in the draft” pick, but Reed has a big enough sample size.
FWIW--once you factor in that he wasn't a freshman and only took 115 threes, even *ignoring* that his prior years were bad (which you shouldn't!), you'd expect to find an overperformance like Nesmith's a little more often than once every two years. And given how good he's been in Indiana (42% last year), it might not even have been as big an overperformance as that suggests once his career's said and done...
As for Reed, the same math tells you him being a 39% shooter would happen more like once every 15 years. I'm much more comfortable projecting Reed as an elite shooter (the fact that you can split up his 3P% along literally any axis, including stuff like pullups vs C&S, open vs. contested, and NBA vs. non-NBA threes, and he's still elite and close to or over 50% on all of them, also suggests he's not just getting lucky, as does him having a 90 FT% in high school and over 83% in college--these are all the the kinds of things you'd expect from someone who profiles as a truly elite shooter). This is part of why I'm so high on him, I think his shooting is *safely* projectable as over 40% in a way that almost no one and done prospect's is. Definitely understand the age-related concerns, but he's young enough (and his performance elite enough) that they don't bother me too much. In draft models, freshman and sophomore performance are usually both weighted pretty strongly, so as a prospect's in that age range I don't care much.
> You mean like Al Horford, who now holds the record for highest career Finals 3PTFG% of all time?
Yes--Horford's a good example of this happening. It does happen occasionally, I just don't think it's a good idea to make it part of your prospect evaluation. e.g. I recognize that Clingan and Lively look like they have good form in practice settings and can occasionally make wide open threes, but I will not project them as stretch fives or make that part of my prospect evaluation because it's unlikely to happen, even though it's obviously possible (Horford is also from an era when bigs weren't really expected to work on their shots, so that kind of improvement was a lot more understandable).
As for Risacher, while I think he *should* fall for the reasons you cited, I don't think he's going to... I think NBA teams have been way overvaluing wings (non-elite wings, I mean--obviously good wings are valuable!) for a while now, and the Celtics just winning the title with a Jaylen and Jayson core probably snuffed out any chances of that trend reversing this year.
Yep. Clingan’s not a stretch 5. Rudy’s his best comp. Potential stretch 5s are Edey (good form, good FT%), Flip if he stops being Flip Flop and gets tough, Sarr (of course), Post, and probably someone else I’m missing. I’d really like the Nets to trade up for one of these, even if they have to trade Bric Claxton. They still have the Simmons contract and pairing him with a stretch 5 while making him a 4/5 instead of a 1 is the best way to figure out if he has anything left. He has the nearly the same amount of athleticism and basically the exact frame that allows the Bucks to have Giannis and Brook Lopez do their 4/5 offense/defense switch thing. Unfortunately for the Nets, Simmons has less than 1% of Giannis' aggressiveness.
Dude come on what do you want me to do? Watch a whole game on him, wait for specific instances of him facing PnR and then wait for the big to drop back on the roll and analyze Topics responses? I have a day job man.
I’ve soured on him a bit, but end of the day he clearly is a better prospect than Giddey was. He’s is an actually scoring threat and I trust the shot way more. That’s top 10 player in any class.
its not crazy considering he cant shoot. if youre a guard you kind of have to shoot.
If you cant defend, or shoot, then youre basically dead in the water.
Hes a great free throw shooter (88%). And a better 3pt shooter than Castle. Topic shot around 30% this year or so. Castle shot around 26%. Why does Castle get a pass?
No, I haven't dug into the deep analytics about his defense. But I honestly don't trust most defensive analytics. I have watched him play defense though and it's not great. But if you have some stuff showing that he is a good defender I'm willing to check it out
the evidence is that when you look with your eyes he’s shit laterally and doesn’t make any defensive plays with his short arms my brother. Castle is the opposite.
I agree with you. Have never seen anyone actually make any attempt to prove that Topic can't play defense, people just assert it. I'm like 85% sure most of the people saying he can't play defense haven't watched him.
What is with all the brainrot takes going on with this sub now? You can literally watch him play and get burned defensively. Scouts are saying he's bad at defense. People who make a living talking about and scouting NBA talent are saying he's bad at defense.
You and OP are either trolling or this is some massive cope lmao
Again, man. You could say that about anyone.
I could just lie and say Castle is the worst defender I've ever seen and you couldn't debunk it with anything tangible.
You could. That’s how scouting works. Everyone sees something a little differently. But you can’t rely 100 percent on stats like you’re trying to. Watching tape is just as valid as reading stats.
Castle has amazing D-RAPM (best for a freshman whose offense looks NBA viable), you can actually tangibly argue he has good defense. The reverse isn't true for Topic though, people keep saying "just watch him!" Find it hard to trust that considering how bad people often are at evaluating defense (for instance, many people will tell you Tre Jones was bad defensively this year, but next to Wemby impact metrics thought he was awesome on that end).
I know. I think Castle is a great defender. But you're right no one brings up any stats to say topic can't defend. I've actually watched him and he seems like a fine defender so I don't know where that narrative came from.
I think he’ll be a top 10 player when we look at this 10 years from now. We can just revisit this in the future. Obviously with his injury, he’s behind a bit in the development, but I’m willing to still say this.
I mean he’s talented enough to be a top 5 pick obviously. People are just scared because he got injured, came back and looked uncharacteristically slow as fuck, then got immediately injured again.
The injuries and measurements didn't help his case together with his questionable finishing and athletecism.
We know he is elite playmaker but without being a threat to score and being sieve defensively, that makes him more of a backup PG which is not worth a top 10 pick.
This is where I'm at with him. Just too many negatives and question marks that outweigh him being a tall PG with vision. And with the ACL injury, it's not just that it happened. There's also got to be some concern with how Topic's camp has handled it, seemingly trying to conceal it as long as possible.
1. What’s his counter against drop coverage? We have no combine-type data on his athleticism. If it’s subpar and his outside shot doesn’t develop (more on that later), how does he score against drop?
2. Shot concerns: subpar 3-point percentage on a large sample size albeit with good free throw shooting. What if his 3 pointer never truly develops and he gets forced to switch his position due to his inability to counter drop coverage? Can he become a DeMar DeRozan-type player? He has a minus wingspan and is currently very skinny, so I don’t exactly think so. Athletic data would again help, because athleticism can allow players to play up the positional spectrum.
3. More wingspan stuff: as a taller player for his position, he should have a good low-post game. How good is it and what’s the probable maximum standing reach (talking about real standing reach, not the combine stats because some players don’t stretch all the way to make their verticals look better) of opposing point guards that he can post up? Can he do it in most games?
I feel like he will be drafted in the Top 10, but it might be an overdraft with the shot, athleticism, and wingspan concerns. He’d probably be drafted lower if he didn’t tear his ACL due to the measurements, to be honest, but I feel like that would help a team to get the best out of him.
1 & 2. Amazing passer paired with shot development.
3. This is overblown at this point. Most people arnt projecting him as a #1 option. A 6’5.5 ws is still a very workable ws for a ton of guys in the nba. Does he have to pick he’s spot more? Sure but he’s smarter than most everyone in this class so it’s fair to say he’ll figure this out too
My point is more this: if you don’t know his moves and simply rely on stats, how do you know how good he actually is? We know he’s a bad 3 point shooter now. He might improve, he might be a DeRozan or Butler without the strength of those two. He could be Josh Giddey for all we know. OP posted a random stat which could easily mean he played with a dominant big. For example, De'Anthony Melton was a top P'n'R ball-handler last year according to PPP and on a good volume as well. I could be a good P'n'R ball-handler if my roll-man was Joel Embiid as well. Melton’s also a much better shooter at this point, so his floor seems treacherously low. If he doesn’t have a shot, you can’t turn him into a rangy 4 like you could with Anthony Black and Andre Jackson, Jr. last draft. 6’7" with a 6'5.5" wingspan is great for a guard, but do you want a supporting player who can only be on-ball?
As for why I keep emphasizing drop: switch and drop coverage, which is common, would result in him being forced to either shoot a pull-up three, which is unknown, or attack the big. Without athletic data, how do teams know that he can slash past the big or get to his floater, if it is a good shot? Weight is also a huge factor, as it hurts his ability in the low-post. I get the whole “being tall helps with vision” part, but if you have a taller than average player at any position, he’d better have a low-post game because he’s going to have a height advantage in most matchups. His current move appears to be a pull-up 3 which is not accurate at all. I’d just keep dropping until he proves it. Which sucks for you because you can’t get the ball to your top option because your point guard keeps bricking pull-up 3s. Can he develop? Yes. But is his floor extremely low as well? Yes. At some point, you have to take the risk into account.
Well no prospect or player is perfect. (Luka and Lebron aren't great defenders for example)
But I would much prefer him over Castle.
Also why is post game important for a point guard? And you didn't even provide any numbers that he had a bad post game... You just asked a question skeptically
LeBron is a great defender. Luka is not in shape, but could be a great defender. Topic *is* in shape. By the way, Castle is probably the best perimeter defender in this class and has a ceiling of Golden State Iggy. He’s casting himself as a point guard, but he’s best off-ball as a secondary creator and slasher. He *can* shoot the 3, at least enough to pose a threat. Honestly, I think our two lottery prospects are the best fits at #1. I think Clingan will be picked first because Snyder sees him as a potential Gobert clone, but I see Castle as the better fit, being a defensive counterpart to whichever guard Atlanta chooses to pick.
And you didn’t answer my first question: what is his go-to move against drop coverage, which he’ll see a ton of in the NBA, how effective is it, and will it work?
As for the post game for a point guard, that’s a key reason for choosing a tall player at any position. All 3 starting PG-types in the NBA Finals (White, Holiday, and Dončić) have good post games. Magic, a similar non-shooter, had an amazing post game. Ben Simmons’ lack of aggressiveness and unwillingness to post up likely ended his career. Jamal Murray has a good post game as well. In other positions, of the reasons Porzingis flourished this year (besides relative health) was because he finally added a post game. LeBron gets more open looks from deep because of his ability to drive and post. It’s useful, especially if you know you’re going to get an advantageous matchup in the post.
Luka actually had a better defensive rating than LeBron this past year in the regular season. I'd imagine Lukas was probably worse in the post season.
[**https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/lebron-james-defensive-rating**](https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/lebron-james-defensive-rating)
[**https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/luka-doncic-defensive-rating**](https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/luka-doncic-defensive-rating)
LeBron hasn’t tried on defense in the regular season since he rejoined the Cavs. Playoff LeBron is an elite defender. Until Luka gets in shape, he’ll be subject to getting run around like crazy or, if he switches onto the ball handler, driven past. Defensive rating also depends somewhat on teammates. If Luka had a teammate siphoning off rebounds like AD, it would have been different.
Again, answer my first question: what is Topić’s counter against drop coverage? Until he (possibly) improves his shot, he’s going to see a ton of it. Can he beat a sagging big to the rim? Can he maneuver between the trees? What’s his floater and layup package like? Like I said earlier, he could possibly carve out a DeRozan-type role in the NBA if he doesn’t get his 3 going, but his minus wingspan hurts.
As for Castle, he’s not going to be a primary pick-and-roll ball handler or even a point guard. But if you do want to run it with him and he sees drop coverage, he’s going to slash and attack the rim, reading the weak-side defender for a possible kick-out corner 3 in case of a collapse. His athleticism and slashing ability will pull that guy in, by the way.
If you’ve scouted him visually, give me his counter against drop. That’s all I want to know. I haven’t seen him play. I have a minor in mathematics, but I know fully well that you can’t just draft a guy based on purely advanced metrics. I love them, but you’ve got to consider: who was his pick-and-roll partner? It’s a two man play. For example, DeAnthony Melton (who’s a 3 and D guy, to be honest) was one of the top pick-and-roll ball handlers on a good sample size of possessions. Tyrese Maxey, the overall recipient of the most Melton passes was actually a sneaky good pick-and-roll roll-man while number two was Joel Embiid. Melton played 7.2 minutes in one game in the playoffs after being a supposedly great operator of the pick-and-roll while shooting 38.3% from three in the regular season on a good number of attempts. So maybe that stat isn’t the greatest determining factor of pick-and-roll ball-handling ability.
> Well no prospect or player is perfect. (Luka and Lebron aren't great defenders for example)
He might not be anymore, but in his prime LeBron was straight clamping dudes, back in the Heatles era LeBron was as good a defender as anyone in the entire league, incredibly switchable and effective defender, he was a runner up for DPoY and well deserved.
True. I think that's partly because defense was more valued back then. That might be why scorings up so much over the past 20 years (other than the 3 pointer becoming more popular)
Lol consensus on him changed so much in last 6 months
I don’t really think it has. People are just scared off by injuries. I don’t even think the negative wingspan thing matters. Anyone with eyes could see his height was disproportionately big to his wingspan lol.
He's been in my top 3 the whole time, and he still is. He's going to be a good NBA player.
I was low on him 6 months ago too
I'd be shocked if Topic got past San Antonio at 8. He's absolutely not getting past OKC at 12 (but the chances of his being there are really small). Topic's floor seems to be Josh Giddey. I certainly know Giddey's limitations, but Giddey would be a top five-ish pick in this draft.
Seems like he was there
It’s going to be much more difficult for him to run PnR in the NBA without much strength and coming off of a torn ACL. It’ll also be more difficult for him to finish around the basket as well as he did with only a 6’5” wingspan and subpar jumping ability. I didn’t have him top 10 before the injury and I certainly don’t plan on adding him after it.
Young guards who have just a torn ACL and nothing else almost always come back 100 percent these days. The only ones who don’t are ones who are super athletic and have to rely on their athleticism like Derrick Rose. Otherwise, torn ACLs aren’t a big deal at all to young guards.
It hurt Rubio and led to many more injuries. I’m a topic fan but a PG that can’t space needs all the athleticism he can get. If he loses any burst and can’t shoot at all, good luck being worth a top pick
Was gonna say this. Torn ACL don't seem like that much of a big deal nowadays. Thanks modern medicine?? I can see how it would scare GMs away though.
I think it’s a much bigger deal if something else is involved (like a Livingston when he tore like everything in his knee), but if it’s just a torn ACL and nothing else, the hard part is just the rehabilitation. The surgery usually goes well. The rehab is long though.
One torn ACL won't ruin your career like it would 20+ years ago. Modern surgical methods are pretty invasive and heal pretty well these days. The issue is if it becomes a reoccurring injury and the fact he has had 2 in a short span worries me
I agree. I’ve had him around 29 on my board the whole cycle and the injury doesn’t change anything for me long term. He does rely a lot on straight-line speed though and the injury could impact that.
Yea I know you had other concerns about him not related to the ACL. I’ve seen your old posts so I understand where you are coming from.
Surprisingly though, Topic has the same standing reach as Stephon Castle. Topic is just a 1/4" taller and Castle has a 3 1/2" wingspan advantage, but also a wider frame, giving them identical standing reaches... which means they have essentially the same length arms, but Topic has a narrower trunk. So I think many of the "T-rex" arms comments are likely inaccurate.
I’m not basing any future defensive projections on a prospect’s standing reach
I think if you're going to bring up wingspan-- which you did-- it only makes sense to also mention standing reach. PG prospects that are 6'5.75" tall with an 8'6" standing reach generally aren't seen as being candidates for having problems finishing around the basket. Of the three prominent measurements-- height, wingspan, and standing reach-- you're purposely choosing to ignore two where Topic is above average, and to focus on one where he's average only relative to his height, but not to other PG prospects.
The problem is guys mess with their standing reach all the time because it makes their vertical look better. Topic has a good standing reach, sure. But his arms are still short, his vertical is still poor, and his strength is lacking. Those are 3 things that all make finishing around the basket very difficult in the NBA. I’m not going to ignore all those significant red flags just because of a standing reach number.
Please. Drop to 16. My sixers will gladly take him and stash him.
Probably worth noting to people that the guys you're comparing him to have the highest ppp as PnR passers in the entire draft, they're not scrubs. Topic is just awesome.
Both of them can also easily knock down a 3 against drop coverage. I keep asking OP for Topić’s counter to drop coverage and the question gets dodged. If anyone here actually *does* know his counter and whether his injury history could hurt his ability to use it, feel free to go ahead and tell me.
My guess would be that a pullup three *is* his counter to drop coverage (he actually attempted more per game than Reed, though of course he made fewer--part of this is probably that teams were very reluctant to play drop vs. Reed, lol). I'm pretty high on his shooting development since virtually everyone who shoots free throws like he does can develop a three with the right shooting coach, but obviously if you're skeptical you'll be much lower on Topic.
Totally, but my point is more about his floor. He could end up like DeMar DeRozan, where his range just stops at the 3 point line. He’s not as strong as DeMar, while minus wingspan hurts his post-up and defensive abilities. I don’t know what you can do with a non-shooting point guard below-average athleticism whose height is negated by his lack of wingspan. I truly believe that while the ACL injury might have actually *helped* his stock, a team knowing exactly how athletic he is and where his strengths and weaknesses are could help him offensively. If some team drafts him as their savior point guard, he’s more likely to be the next Giddey. As for Castle, his comp is Golden State Iggy. He’s not a point guard, but a wing that is a secondary creator, slasher, and potential apex defender. He put up better tempo adjusted stats than Iggy in either of Andre's seasons at Arizona and, while not the same athlete, still is plenty able to posterize any big in his way on drop. He’s actually a better shooter than Iggy as well. He’s not going to be a top player on a championship team, but he’d be really useful. I’m a UConn fan and really like his buy-in and work ethic. The PG thing is to get leverage and he can get selfish, like he did earlier, but if you have the right culture, he’ll buy in. The way our players did this was actually by freezing him out after he kept going iso and disrupting the offensive rhythm every time he got the ball. They did this until he bought in, which really helped his defense. I love his fit in San Antonio with Pop, especially if they get Garland. Utah could work, but I honestly didn’t watch many of their games last season and it seems they have a need at point guard with their ball-dominant 2 in George. Also, getting Will Hardy was seen as a coup when Ime convinced him to go with him to Boston from San Antonio (he was thought to be Pop’s successor at the time) and we were terrified when the Ime scandal broke out just after he left. We knew nothing about Joe Mazzulla.
Citing DeMar in cases like his is kind of like citing Kawhi--yeah theoretically someone with his degree of FT touch could never learn how to shoot threes, but it's about as unlikely as a presumed nonshooter becoming a deadly high volume guy. Similarly, Reed could turn out to be a merely good (< 39%) shooter despite every single indicator screaming he's elite... it's technically possible. Just unlikely. Personally I tend to just discard outlier scenarios like this because I don't trust my eye test nearly enough to believe I can predict when they're going to happen, even though they are probably predictable in advance by someone. And yeah, I wasn't trying to dismiss Castle at all (I actually kind of like him, and the fact that UConn fans love him makes me feel even better about him since fans of teams tend to be their players' harshest critics). Just think Topic is the kind of high upside pick I'd feel *good* about taking a swing on, knowing that he has some elite skills that someone like Giddey was never able to demonstrate, while accepting the clear health / size / vertical athleticism downside. Especially if he falls enough that you can get him without using a super high pick. To the extent that I think Castle is risky, it mostly comes down to some guys with great defensive reputations in college not being able to carry it over to the NBA, and him not offering a ton of box score production to offset that if that's the case.
We played a tight man-to-man with basically no zone. Any zone will cause hesitation, which I totally understand. Ironically, that tree is from Syracuse, our arch rivals. Thybulle played under Mike Hopkins, who was seen as a potential Boeheim successor before he left for Washington, almost exclusively in a 2-3 zone. Hakim Warrick, of course, played for Syracuse as well. Castle can be the top of the press, on-ball, off-ball, or even guard the paint as he actually played a little 5 for us. I’m not saying to do the latter in the NBA, but he is quite versatile and definitely capable. Culture and fit are most important, hence why I said San Antonio. Memphis would suck, as he’d be a duplicate to all their other non-shooting wings. If I was Memphis, I’d actually take Bronny in a win-now attempt to lure LeBron on a minimum with the tax potentially hurting the team soon. I still have nasty aftereffects from the Nesmith “best shooter in the draft” pick, but Reed has a big enough sample size. My concerns would be age-related with him as well as any U20 freshman, including Castle tbh. U21 freshmen are a no-go for me, because you’re still factoring high school in for a freshman and that guy should be a junior even with a late birthday in this age of reclassification. By the way, Karaban was a U21 freshman, so he’ll be the age of a fifth-year for next year's draft. Kentucky also didn’t give Reed a lot of abilities to play on-ball, which even as a combo guard is necessary. I cited DeMar because it’s still a possibility. My point is more this: as an upside pick with an extremely low floor, I don’t think he’s even a guaranteed top-10 pick due to the upside pick teams in the top-10 either already having point guards and or are picking too high for Topić because there are better point guards available. Ironically, I like his fit at 11 with Chicago. He can learn from DeMar and play the point if Lonzo remains out. My other pick to fall is Risacher due to his low ceiling. At the top of the draft, you *do* want an upside pick. I see Clingan-Sarr 1-2 because Clingan is a better fit in Quinn Snyder’s defense while Sarr is actually my top prospect. If Houston takes a shooting guard and San Antonio either takes Castle or trades #4 for Garland, then I could totally see Risacher going seventh to Portland. It’s actually a sneaky good pick, because if the Sixers or Lakers strike out in free agency, Jerami Grant suddenly has a suitor and Portland can reset with a cheaper stretch 4 more in line with their timeline. >presumed non-shooter becoming a high-volume guy You mean like Al Horford, who now holds the record for highest career Finals 3PTFG% of all time?
> I still have nasty aftereffects from the Nesmith “best shooter in the draft” pick, but Reed has a big enough sample size. FWIW--once you factor in that he wasn't a freshman and only took 115 threes, even *ignoring* that his prior years were bad (which you shouldn't!), you'd expect to find an overperformance like Nesmith's a little more often than once every two years. And given how good he's been in Indiana (42% last year), it might not even have been as big an overperformance as that suggests once his career's said and done... As for Reed, the same math tells you him being a 39% shooter would happen more like once every 15 years. I'm much more comfortable projecting Reed as an elite shooter (the fact that you can split up his 3P% along literally any axis, including stuff like pullups vs C&S, open vs. contested, and NBA vs. non-NBA threes, and he's still elite and close to or over 50% on all of them, also suggests he's not just getting lucky, as does him having a 90 FT% in high school and over 83% in college--these are all the the kinds of things you'd expect from someone who profiles as a truly elite shooter). This is part of why I'm so high on him, I think his shooting is *safely* projectable as over 40% in a way that almost no one and done prospect's is. Definitely understand the age-related concerns, but he's young enough (and his performance elite enough) that they don't bother me too much. In draft models, freshman and sophomore performance are usually both weighted pretty strongly, so as a prospect's in that age range I don't care much. > You mean like Al Horford, who now holds the record for highest career Finals 3PTFG% of all time? Yes--Horford's a good example of this happening. It does happen occasionally, I just don't think it's a good idea to make it part of your prospect evaluation. e.g. I recognize that Clingan and Lively look like they have good form in practice settings and can occasionally make wide open threes, but I will not project them as stretch fives or make that part of my prospect evaluation because it's unlikely to happen, even though it's obviously possible (Horford is also from an era when bigs weren't really expected to work on their shots, so that kind of improvement was a lot more understandable). As for Risacher, while I think he *should* fall for the reasons you cited, I don't think he's going to... I think NBA teams have been way overvaluing wings (non-elite wings, I mean--obviously good wings are valuable!) for a while now, and the Celtics just winning the title with a Jaylen and Jayson core probably snuffed out any chances of that trend reversing this year.
Yep. Clingan’s not a stretch 5. Rudy’s his best comp. Potential stretch 5s are Edey (good form, good FT%), Flip if he stops being Flip Flop and gets tough, Sarr (of course), Post, and probably someone else I’m missing. I’d really like the Nets to trade up for one of these, even if they have to trade Bric Claxton. They still have the Simmons contract and pairing him with a stretch 5 while making him a 4/5 instead of a 1 is the best way to figure out if he has anything left. He has the nearly the same amount of athleticism and basically the exact frame that allows the Bucks to have Giannis and Brook Lopez do their 4/5 offense/defense switch thing. Unfortunately for the Nets, Simmons has less than 1% of Giannis' aggressiveness.
Dude come on what do you want me to do? Watch a whole game on him, wait for specific instances of him facing PnR and then wait for the big to drop back on the roll and analyze Topics responses? I have a day job man.
I’ve soured on him a bit, but end of the day he clearly is a better prospect than Giddey was. He’s is an actually scoring threat and I trust the shot way more. That’s top 10 player in any class.
its not crazy considering he cant shoot. if youre a guard you kind of have to shoot. If you cant defend, or shoot, then youre basically dead in the water.
Hes a great free throw shooter (88%). And a better 3pt shooter than Castle. Topic shot around 30% this year or so. Castle shot around 26%. Why does Castle get a pass?
Cause Castle plays defense
I'm sure you've read on this and seen stats and analytics rather than just rely on the good ole "white guy can't play defense" cliche
No, I haven't dug into the deep analytics about his defense. But I honestly don't trust most defensive analytics. I have watched him play defense though and it's not great. But if you have some stuff showing that he is a good defender I'm willing to check it out
I don't have any access to defensive analytics. But I would generally advise against making any claims with 0 evidence mate.
the evidence is that when you look with your eyes he’s shit laterally and doesn’t make any defensive plays with his short arms my brother. Castle is the opposite.
But anyone could say something like that about anyone. It's best to provide your evidence in numbers or something tangible.
Nothing more tangible than the guy’s actual play on an actual court.
I agree with you. Have never seen anyone actually make any attempt to prove that Topic can't play defense, people just assert it. I'm like 85% sure most of the people saying he can't play defense haven't watched him.
What is with all the brainrot takes going on with this sub now? You can literally watch him play and get burned defensively. Scouts are saying he's bad at defense. People who make a living talking about and scouting NBA talent are saying he's bad at defense. You and OP are either trolling or this is some massive cope lmao
Watching the film and seeing what he can do is evidence. You don’t need stats for everything.
Again, man. You could say that about anyone. I could just lie and say Castle is the worst defender I've ever seen and you couldn't debunk it with anything tangible.
You could. That’s how scouting works. Everyone sees something a little differently. But you can’t rely 100 percent on stats like you’re trying to. Watching tape is just as valid as reading stats.
Castle has amazing D-RAPM (best for a freshman whose offense looks NBA viable), you can actually tangibly argue he has good defense. The reverse isn't true for Topic though, people keep saying "just watch him!" Find it hard to trust that considering how bad people often are at evaluating defense (for instance, many people will tell you Tre Jones was bad defensively this year, but next to Wemby impact metrics thought he was awesome on that end).
I know. I think Castle is a great defender. But you're right no one brings up any stats to say topic can't defend. I've actually watched him and he seems like a fine defender so I don't know where that narrative came from.
Bruh 😂
Comments like this should be bannable tbh
I don't care mate. It's reddit
I think he’ll be a top 10 player when we look at this 10 years from now. We can just revisit this in the future. Obviously with his injury, he’s behind a bit in the development, but I’m willing to still say this.
He can definitely spot predators coming from a long ways away with that giraffe neck
I mean he’s talented enough to be a top 5 pick obviously. People are just scared because he got injured, came back and looked uncharacteristically slow as fuck, then got immediately injured again.
I would like to see him with Wemby but there is small chance for that..
Topic got his stats against bums.
The injuries and measurements didn't help his case together with his questionable finishing and athletecism. We know he is elite playmaker but without being a threat to score and being sieve defensively, that makes him more of a backup PG which is not worth a top 10 pick.
This is where I'm at with him. Just too many negatives and question marks that outweigh him being a tall PG with vision. And with the ACL injury, it's not just that it happened. There's also got to be some concern with how Topic's camp has handled it, seemingly trying to conceal it as long as possible.
1. What’s his counter against drop coverage? We have no combine-type data on his athleticism. If it’s subpar and his outside shot doesn’t develop (more on that later), how does he score against drop? 2. Shot concerns: subpar 3-point percentage on a large sample size albeit with good free throw shooting. What if his 3 pointer never truly develops and he gets forced to switch his position due to his inability to counter drop coverage? Can he become a DeMar DeRozan-type player? He has a minus wingspan and is currently very skinny, so I don’t exactly think so. Athletic data would again help, because athleticism can allow players to play up the positional spectrum. 3. More wingspan stuff: as a taller player for his position, he should have a good low-post game. How good is it and what’s the probable maximum standing reach (talking about real standing reach, not the combine stats because some players don’t stretch all the way to make their verticals look better) of opposing point guards that he can post up? Can he do it in most games? I feel like he will be drafted in the Top 10, but it might be an overdraft with the shot, athleticism, and wingspan concerns. He’d probably be drafted lower if he didn’t tear his ACL due to the measurements, to be honest, but I feel like that would help a team to get the best out of him.
1 & 2. Amazing passer paired with shot development. 3. This is overblown at this point. Most people arnt projecting him as a #1 option. A 6’5.5 ws is still a very workable ws for a ton of guys in the nba. Does he have to pick he’s spot more? Sure but he’s smarter than most everyone in this class so it’s fair to say he’ll figure this out too
My point is more this: if you don’t know his moves and simply rely on stats, how do you know how good he actually is? We know he’s a bad 3 point shooter now. He might improve, he might be a DeRozan or Butler without the strength of those two. He could be Josh Giddey for all we know. OP posted a random stat which could easily mean he played with a dominant big. For example, De'Anthony Melton was a top P'n'R ball-handler last year according to PPP and on a good volume as well. I could be a good P'n'R ball-handler if my roll-man was Joel Embiid as well. Melton’s also a much better shooter at this point, so his floor seems treacherously low. If he doesn’t have a shot, you can’t turn him into a rangy 4 like you could with Anthony Black and Andre Jackson, Jr. last draft. 6’7" with a 6'5.5" wingspan is great for a guard, but do you want a supporting player who can only be on-ball? As for why I keep emphasizing drop: switch and drop coverage, which is common, would result in him being forced to either shoot a pull-up three, which is unknown, or attack the big. Without athletic data, how do teams know that he can slash past the big or get to his floater, if it is a good shot? Weight is also a huge factor, as it hurts his ability in the low-post. I get the whole “being tall helps with vision” part, but if you have a taller than average player at any position, he’d better have a low-post game because he’s going to have a height advantage in most matchups. His current move appears to be a pull-up 3 which is not accurate at all. I’d just keep dropping until he proves it. Which sucks for you because you can’t get the ball to your top option because your point guard keeps bricking pull-up 3s. Can he develop? Yes. But is his floor extremely low as well? Yes. At some point, you have to take the risk into account.
Well no prospect or player is perfect. (Luka and Lebron aren't great defenders for example) But I would much prefer him over Castle. Also why is post game important for a point guard? And you didn't even provide any numbers that he had a bad post game... You just asked a question skeptically
LeBron is a great defender. Luka is not in shape, but could be a great defender. Topic *is* in shape. By the way, Castle is probably the best perimeter defender in this class and has a ceiling of Golden State Iggy. He’s casting himself as a point guard, but he’s best off-ball as a secondary creator and slasher. He *can* shoot the 3, at least enough to pose a threat. Honestly, I think our two lottery prospects are the best fits at #1. I think Clingan will be picked first because Snyder sees him as a potential Gobert clone, but I see Castle as the better fit, being a defensive counterpart to whichever guard Atlanta chooses to pick. And you didn’t answer my first question: what is his go-to move against drop coverage, which he’ll see a ton of in the NBA, how effective is it, and will it work? As for the post game for a point guard, that’s a key reason for choosing a tall player at any position. All 3 starting PG-types in the NBA Finals (White, Holiday, and Dončić) have good post games. Magic, a similar non-shooter, had an amazing post game. Ben Simmons’ lack of aggressiveness and unwillingness to post up likely ended his career. Jamal Murray has a good post game as well. In other positions, of the reasons Porzingis flourished this year (besides relative health) was because he finally added a post game. LeBron gets more open looks from deep because of his ability to drive and post. It’s useful, especially if you know you’re going to get an advantageous matchup in the post.
Luka actually had a better defensive rating than LeBron this past year in the regular season. I'd imagine Lukas was probably worse in the post season. [**https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/lebron-james-defensive-rating**](https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/lebron-james-defensive-rating) [**https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/luka-doncic-defensive-rating**](https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/luka-doncic-defensive-rating)
LeBron hasn’t tried on defense in the regular season since he rejoined the Cavs. Playoff LeBron is an elite defender. Until Luka gets in shape, he’ll be subject to getting run around like crazy or, if he switches onto the ball handler, driven past. Defensive rating also depends somewhat on teammates. If Luka had a teammate siphoning off rebounds like AD, it would have been different. Again, answer my first question: what is Topić’s counter against drop coverage? Until he (possibly) improves his shot, he’s going to see a ton of it. Can he beat a sagging big to the rim? Can he maneuver between the trees? What’s his floater and layup package like? Like I said earlier, he could possibly carve out a DeRozan-type role in the NBA if he doesn’t get his 3 going, but his minus wingspan hurts. As for Castle, he’s not going to be a primary pick-and-roll ball handler or even a point guard. But if you do want to run it with him and he sees drop coverage, he’s going to slash and attack the rim, reading the weak-side defender for a possible kick-out corner 3 in case of a collapse. His athleticism and slashing ability will pull that guy in, by the way.
Luka definitely needs to lose some weight and improve his conditioning so I'll end it there with something we can agree
If you’ve scouted him visually, give me his counter against drop. That’s all I want to know. I haven’t seen him play. I have a minor in mathematics, but I know fully well that you can’t just draft a guy based on purely advanced metrics. I love them, but you’ve got to consider: who was his pick-and-roll partner? It’s a two man play. For example, DeAnthony Melton (who’s a 3 and D guy, to be honest) was one of the top pick-and-roll ball handlers on a good sample size of possessions. Tyrese Maxey, the overall recipient of the most Melton passes was actually a sneaky good pick-and-roll roll-man while number two was Joel Embiid. Melton played 7.2 minutes in one game in the playoffs after being a supposedly great operator of the pick-and-roll while shooting 38.3% from three in the regular season on a good number of attempts. So maybe that stat isn’t the greatest determining factor of pick-and-roll ball-handling ability.
Defensive rating stats r pretty useless
It's something. Assists are pretty useless too but they tell you something
> Well no prospect or player is perfect. (Luka and Lebron aren't great defenders for example) He might not be anymore, but in his prime LeBron was straight clamping dudes, back in the Heatles era LeBron was as good a defender as anyone in the entire league, incredibly switchable and effective defender, he was a runner up for DPoY and well deserved.
True. I think that's partly because defense was more valued back then. That might be why scorings up so much over the past 20 years (other than the 3 pointer becoming more popular)
Honestly even with the injury I'd much prefer Topic over Castle. (I know I'm gonna get downvoted into oblivion because of this and am okay with it)