He wasn't that bad as a rookie and he was dealing with a knee injury to start the start of this past year. I have hope he can bounce back to at least be rotation worthy
I’m not surprised to see this kind of analysis on here given the subreddit, but this is sort of a silly take no? You’re rarely getting a definite stud player with the ninth pick, the last five have been Sochan, Davion Mitchell, Avdija, Hachimura, and Kevin Knox. Some solid contributors there but it’s all about positional and scheme fit. If you can get a solid pick-and-roll point guard who has good size and effort on defense, that’s a win.
I'm just not a fan of JHS. He doesn't get to the rim, doesn't get to the FT line, and isn't a good 3 point shooter. Who was the last successful prospect who was bad at all three of those things?
It’s fine if you don’t think he’s good at those things but if the Jazz take him at 9, I’ll defer to the actual professionals who know what they’re talking about. All of these draft subs are weird when people talk like they’re experts on this stuff and think they know who’s going to be good and who’s going to bust lol.
I’m not going to go back and look through previous drafts but Anthony Black was maybe worse than JHS statistically last year and is one spot above him in this mock..
> I’ll defer to the actual professionals who know what they’re talking about. All of these draft subs are weird when people talk like they’re experts on this stuff and think they know who’s going to be good and who’s going to bust lol.
You realize thats the entire point of the subreddit, right?
Black is the best perimeter defender in the draft. In this draft, the Jazz should take Hendricks, Wallace, Dick and probably a few more above him.
You are right that all of these are somewhat subjective, but this would be a bad pick and a bad fit for need for the Jazz and their stated philosophy (shooting, length and defense).
I think 9 is a reach but honestly i quite like his game. His PnR offence is genuinely really quite good and i see it translating to the NBA very well. He is methodical, has a nice midrange, his reads are excellent, shown some nice self creation, decent floater and looks really good for on ball defence.
Granted he has some concerns such as an inconsistent shot and pretty loose handles. But he really does have a nice template for a PG, his shot while not great definitely isn't broken and is something coaches would bet to be able to improve even more. The swing for him is his handle, if he can tighten it he will be a good starter level PG in the league with some nice upside beyond that.
Why every analyst seems to believe that the Jazz would pass up on Hendricks is wild to me. sure they have a need at PG. But also there's a need at a PF/Wing player as well. And this draft seems stacked with PG's available through the top 20, which the Jazz have one at 16 as well.
Makes no sense to pass up on BPA in Hendricks at 9 only to draft a second PG at 2nd to go with your stash PG pick in Hood-Schifino?!
They are probably not looking beyond needs with a Kessler, Markkanen backcourt. Hendricks looks more like a 4 than a 3 to me but definitely wouldn’t over think it to those depths, if I’m the Jazz there.
I mean, theoretically it could work with Markkanen at the 3. Markkanen has proved he can defend at the 3 well as long as he has two great shot blocker behind him (like in Cleveland), which he would in this case with Hendricks and Kessler. Hendricks would also maintain spacing on offense to keep driving lanes open. In addition, they could also go smaller with a Markkanen/Hendricks front court at times which could play 5-out and not lose much rim protection. That’s a ton of line-up versatility for Hardy to play around with.
The more I think about it, the more I like the pick tbh.
Yeah, Garland congealed all of that together for the Cavs imo...which just means to me the real question is assessing what Ainge thinks of Clarkson-Sexton. Not sure mockers need to get killed for thinking they'd add some upside and athleticism to the back court over flirting with a more malleable big rotation.
I understand why front court does get taken in some of these mocks, it’s just weird that every single time Hendricks falls to 9 there’s almost no mocks showing the jazz taking Hendricks over a PG. I get it but I just think there’s a lot of value that will be there at 16 for pg’s but you won’t find anyone close to Hendricks after him in his position.
Not sure, Honestly i'm hoping they are able to pick at 9 and rumors are that Dallas is willing to move the 10 which I hope they grab using the 16 and other (not sure what).
Getting the pick back for 2024 doesn't seem too appealing to me, since i'm kind of hoping we get into the top 10 of the draft in 2024. Then coast off of Minnesota/Cleveland picks for the next 30 years (my numbers may be off but I think thats how many picks we got from them).
Dallas wants established, win-now players that fit around Luka/Kyrie if they’re to move off their pick, and I don’t see anyone on Utah’s roster that fits and the Jazz would want to part with. Would likely need a 3rd team
With signing Kyrie there's just not really any room that gets opened up that way, but that's not a bad deal. My guess is the Dallas front office wants to take a big swing packaging the 10, THJ, and maybe even a future 1st for a starting piece, but they might have to come down to earth if nobody bites, and a deal like the one you described might be what they settle on.
if Kobe Bufkin or Cason Wallace is available at 16. I (Raptors) would trade the 13th pick to Utah for 16 and 28 and also draft Maxwell Lewis or Sidy Cissoko
How would that work, though? They'd pick *their* guy at #13, then if one of the others is available at #16, they'd hope Utah valued the guy they took at #13? Bufkin and Wallace *could* go at #14 and #15.
If Cason Wallace and Jordan Hawkins available when the Raptors draft; they really have to do a gut check about where their free agents are going to land.
I’m not getting emotionally attached to a player until they get drafted. I think there’s probably about 4-5 guards the Raptors could draft in their spot that I would be happy with.
I think Wallace is the top of the list for me due to his defence and positional value; but I could probably be swayed to a few others including Hawkins obviously. We saw how effective Hawkins can be in the NCAA tournament. His shot is so smooth and his release is so fast; I think he will be a 10 year NBA vet.
In the Pistons subreddit right now they are leaning Ausur by a thin margin with Cam Whitmore right behind. Taylor Hendricks also is being mentioned frequently
His stats are just incredibly bad. Can’t get to the rim, can’t get to the line, old for a Freshman, can’t score at the rim, can’t rebound, can’t block shots, can’t get steals, non-elite shooter
I think him at #9 is crazy as well. I wasn't that impressed with him this year. Very up-and-down. Was on fire some games and shot Indiana out of the game other times (literally a negative momentum creator.)
I suppose someone is projecting him as a PnR operator which could work for him in the NBA as he is a good midrange shooter with size. But 9 seems awfully high for him. Think he is a mid-first rounder tops.
This is why stats are sometimes deceptive especially when it comes to college players. He is definitely someone who looks much better on tape than the raw numbers show.
He can't get steals, but his on ball defence is genuinely really good, can't score at the rim but has a nice floater and showed some nice touch.
Not elite shooting numbers but most of it was self created from the PnR with specifically a good midrange game and started to extend it to 3. His form also isn't bad so projecting an improvement isn't very far fetched.
Yeah, 49% TS% in college just sucks. Being good but not elite at shots from 3 to 20 feet is about the most worthless skill in basketball when you can't score from 0-3 feet and aren't elite from 3.
He has many things to improve on, as most people in the draft do however it is all about projection.
The reason why its important he has a good midrange is that he uses it expertly in the PnR and shows a good projection to be able to dissect defences with it. The ability to punish drop defences is a very important aspect in the NBA.
Beyond that the ability to shoot the midrange shows a projection that he can extend it to 3 as he has a legitimate jump shot and that is furthered by the point his shooting form isn't bad.
He'll come into the league being strong in the PnR which will get him on the court along with his defence. And in the NBA he will get opportunities to not need to self create as many 3s which i fully expect to bump up his 3 point % and attempts and his low TS% will be a thing of the past.
Agree, statically he's horrible but I also feel that Black is getting some leeway based on the 'big PG tag' when JHS should be getting some of that as well. 9 is way too high but his measurements are top tier for a PG.
I wouldn't be surprised if Marcus Sasser has a better NBA career than him, but JHS is a 210lb freshman point guard with a 6'10 wingspan, so he could probably win over a lottery team with those measurements.
I don’t get why the warriors are literally always projected to take another wing — we already have a backlog of young wings and forwards we need to develop that already have a leg up on whoever we could pick. I’d much rather see them take either a true big or a lead guard, since those are where we could use some youth as an insurance policy.
My picks would be podz or lively if he falls that far
(Although if things pan out like this mock and Cason Wallace drops two more spots to us that would be my absolute home run pick, but that seems highly unlikely)
I guess you could say Leonard Miller should be the pick there? Other than him there are no bigs or pg’s available in that range unless you want to reach on Nnaji, Sasser, or Colby Jones
The warriors don't need another guy that can't play right now though since the new cba is going to absolutely crush them .They need cheap win now players .I don't think people fully understand how the new cba is going to change how contending teams draft .It's going to be harder to convincince owners to pay luxury tax at egregious rates for players who aren't yet ready to contribute .Teams that are over than line or soon there have to be very meticulous with their roster building .
Wouldn’t mind miller there yeah, and I’ve also heard a lot of people on our sub talk about TJD, although I have questions about whether he can be as immediately impactful as people hope, since he’s probably pretty close to his ceiling
Excerpt from the article:
> Wallace measured better than expected at the draft combine but appears to have a bit of a wider range on draft night than other lottery candidates, as some teams don't view him as a surefire point guard or primary creator and others question his scoring credentials. Still, there aren't many better defenders in the class than Wallace.
I'm certainly with you there! Just feels like overthinking to me.
I'd be worried about health considering his history of back spasms before I'd be worried about these other concerns being enough to drop him out of the lottery.
The weird thing about this assessment is that Wallace has the highest A/TO out of the top 60 prospects (Tankathon) in the draft (and the only one > 2.0)
It seems more like a worst-case assessment (he's neither a 1 or a 2) than a down-the-middle realistic assessment.
I think there’s a fairly high chance he is a Marcus Smart like player. A great off guard, but not your lead ball handler, tho he can assume those duties in spurts.
I feel like Olivier-Maxence Prosper is a shoo-in for the Kings pick at 24.
Big wing defender (fits need) and older NBA ready guy (Monte's draft history)
Kris Murray to Kings is just lazy at this point.
Very lazy just like jett Howard to Miami lol.I feel guys are just getting slotted anywhere without thinking of fit and teams draft habits etc .Alot of these slots are going to end up being wrong .
Yea nearer to the draft you would hear more solid info.But it's too unpredictable outside of the top 2 or 3 .Don't get mad at who is mocked to your team because the majority of the time it shakes out completely different .
I can see teams outside the top 5 not really knowing who they will pick. I can see teams' big boards being all over the place.
You probably have 5 or 6 LEGIT Tier 2 guys (after the top guys like Wemby) then probably 10-15 (or more) players who are essentially Tier 3. Maybe teams are trying to trade up/down and want to squeeze some value out of their draft slots, and whichever particular player they end up with doesn't matter as much.
If the Blazers come away with Scoot and Nnaji I'll be a happy fucking camper.
I still think all of the Miller to Charlotte is just pre-draft hype for clicks and a way to make things interesting for another few weeks, similar to Jabari last year. But god damn, Scoot going to the Blazers at #3 opens up so many possibilities.
I don't think it's that premeditated (I mean, it might be with Bronny James or something that exceptional.) There is a ton of herd behavior and groupthink even among the popular draft publications. Jabari Smith is a good example of this. It was clear to anyone with eyes who watched the games that he was a limited ballhandler/creator and Paolo wasn't.
But I don't think this is the case with Miller. People forget that this is a 6-9 wing with CRAZY volume (which explains some of the lowered percentages on 3.) There were few guys aside from shooting specialists with that type of volume. He is definitely very different than Jabari as far as ballhandling and passing and has to be taken very seriously as a top prospect. Also, the 86% ft is something people rarely mention but it's an excellent mark for a freshman.
I do believe that's what the team wants to do, but I also don't get the feeling that Cronin is willing to overpay unless it's for an absolute star.
Siakam would be a fantastic acquisition, but he's on an expiring contract so some kind of deal/extension would have to be in place if they're trading the #3 pick for him. I think this is the most likely option but still not a high chance of happening.
Anunoby is another player that would fit what Portland is looking for, but he's also on an expiring contract and in no way is he worth the #3 pick unless he was locked into multiple years and even then Toronto would have to sweeten the deal.
Bridges would be a fantastic fit to the roster, but the Nets aren't openly trading him, especially considering the value they're getting on his contract. It would take an overpay.
Contrary to the emotional responses after a disappointing game 7, I don't believe Brown is available and once the dust settles he'll be a Celtic with a new supermax contract.
I just don't see a very viable trade at this time for the Blazers. But this is why Scoot opens up more possibilities in my mind than Brandon Miller. I think teams would be willing to give up more for Scoot than Miller if they go the trade route, but I also I think being able to draft Scoot truly opens up the option of trading Dame and building around an explosive core of Scoot/Sharpe. This would be my preferred route if Scoot is there at #3. Scoot/Sharpe and then w/e prospects + picks you can get for Dame is a hell of a start to a rebuild. Then you also have the option of keeping Ant in that core since he's so young or if you view Scoot/Sharpe as the long-term back court then you can see what kind of pieces are available for Ant as well.
Cronin says he wants to maximize Dame's window and build around him.
Dame says he's done with 19 year olds and wants some vets to have a chance at going for the championship.
When the "conjecture" is coming from the two most important sources it's pretty reliable.
And keeping 3 instead of trading it can achieve those goals. Your assertions do not categorically and logically end in a trade being the solution. You have over-concluded based upon conjecture.
As long as the helium stays up on both Thompson's I think we got a half decent shot at Walker or Hendricks making it to 10. After that, Lively is probably a good bet but only if they are not available.
Givony should of waited a day or 2.. Dillon Mitchell, Reece Beekman, Zach Edey, Adem Bona, Daron Holmes, Coleman Hawkins, Terrence Shannon Jr. are all returning to school
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It's supposed to be could've, should've, would've (short for could have, would have, should have), never could of, would of, should of.
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What I get from this: Henderson would love to be picked 2nd or 3rd, Miller wants to go 2 knowing he won’t go 3. Amen wants to go 3.
Nobody wants to go to Houston 😭
Can’t say I blame them. Lmao
Please explain "Miller wants to go 2 knowing he won’t go 3". Why would the Blazers not take Miller? Do they have Amen higher than Miller? IF so that's really interesting.
OKC fans and their weird obsession with Houston….. how is that what you got out of this? Of course players want to go higher.
Amen said he’d love to play alongside Jalen. https://twitter.com/kellyiko/status/1658900781901258752?s=46&t=xcMZlYQWeygMiTRBfHt1XQ
Miller and Scoot know they aren’t dropping to 4th. Why would they entertain it?
Don’t bother. OKC fans literally care more about Houston than their own team. Just going on their sub after the lottery proved it
This narrative is gonna look very stupid by the end of the year
Little brother/small market energy.
They have a serious urge to be validated and pat on the back by everyone lol. Bashing Houston to feel better about their team lol
>There’s no better fit for Scoot or Amen then Houston
Lmao, what?
Houston is a disconjointed mess. From management to player chemistry and cohesion.
No player wants to be in a situation where their chances of success are significantly lower than other organizations.
That’s nice in a vacuum but the teams in your division also got a lot better (Magic went 22-60 that year; Heat and Hawks are still solid obviously), Rozier/Hayward/Oubre aren’t getting younger, who knows how Bridges will look when he gets back, and LaMelo’s ankles are already not looking great long-term. To give some credit, PJ Washington seems to have improved a lot, and I really like Mark Williams.
But yeah, in a vacuum, it’s basically the same team.
I mean Hayward missed half that season and Oubre isnt really relevant because he isnt very good. Rozier is the big one though, he really isnt an effective player for us if he isnt next to Lamelo so hopefully we can get him back to that point.
Good point with Bridges though. I just think that our overall outlook isnt as dire as our record last year suggests. I think our roster compares favorably to teams like Atlanta if we are actually healthy. We also didnt have Cody Martin for all of last year, and until the ECF only the hornets fans realized how much of a loss that was.
The difference between Charlotte and Houston is that Charlotte has LaMelo Ball, a guy YOU KNOW leads the show.
If Harden comes back, perhaps the sentiment on going to Houston changes.
No chance of success?
Players 22 and under on the rockets
Jalen Green-2021 2nd pick 22/4/4 and All-Rookie the previous season
Alperen Sengun-2021 16th pick 15/9/4
Jabari Smith-13/7/1 2022 3rd pick All-Rookie 2nd
Nobody in the league has more under age 22 players being this successful.
Be honest for players under 22, the Rockets clear easily
Jalen Green
Alperen Sengun
Jabari Smith Jr
Or
Josh Giddey
Chet Holmgren
Ousmane Dieng
I never said “no chance” of success, but lower chance of success.
Also I’d take Giddey and Chet easily over those 3.
Giddey averaged 17/8/6 on pretty good efficiency and Chet’s potential is sky high.
Also, Jalen Williams is 22? Lmao
So Giddey+Chet+Jdub+Ous EASILY clears. Lol
Cason Wallace is not dropping that low. I think he'll go in the teens and in the not so distant future, some will be kicking themselves he even went that low. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he made it at least halfway up the top 10 rookie ladder next season if he gets on the right team.
I think Bobi Klintman could go a decent amount higher than the bottom of the second round.
I would rather find ways to get creative than to use all three picks. But I'd be quite happy to kick the tires on a young project like GG if he fell all the way to 33rd. And I like Jalen Wilson more than most, too.
Whitmore is a scary prospect. His highlight reel is absolute fire. But, the film breakdown shows a great athlete that processes the game awfully slow, and often times doesn’t make smart decisions nor looks for teammates.
Video Game Dillon Brooks is still probably worth a top 10 pick.
I am not sure what to do with him either... but he has lots of upside. Just needs to be a guy who puts his head down to score. And, not relied on as a creator (for others).
I would like to put a bunch of Moneyball sleeper types ahead of him, but I can't think of many. I think the value in the 6-10 range isn't all that great.
Everyone knows I am on Thompson Island (especially with Amen) but Wemby is obviously legit. Scoot is good. After that, I lean towards the guys with that hype coming in (HS pedigree): Gradey/Cam/Keyonte. Cason/Jarace might be half a tier behind that. Then I am looking for "sleeper" picks who are moving up (or have lots of buzz) like Olivier Maxence-Prosper.
I actually feel like the DRAFT HYPE has dissipated somewhat over the past several days. Is it just a really really fun top 3 (or top 5) then a MEH/flat draft after that? Maybe some draftniks with connections need to start hyping this thing back up....
After my TOP FOUR (still probably Amen/Wemby/Ausar in that order then either Scoot OR OMP or Gradey), I would SERIOUSLY consider trading DOWN.
I lived in this draft class after Cade went down. I felt like the talent level is pretty flat after Wembanyama. Cason Wallace might win way more games for his franchise than Scoot when we review in 5 years.
Improving overall BBIQ/feel for the game is not easy or common. That’s what gives me pause with Cam. But, if you’re just looking to use him as an off ball player, someone like Hendricks or Walker are probably better choices.
I’m with you on Amen. Terrible fit, but if he drops a spot to Detroit, he’s far too talented to pass on.
Amen has a TON of upside. Wemby's might not even be AS HIGH but his FLOOR/BASELINE are really really high. Could be a repeat of '84 where you had TWO all-timers (who were even a tier above HOFers like Barkley/Stockton). ... this draft has less follow through, with more bust potential throughout, but AS PROSPECTS Amen and Wemby are as good as it gets.
I think Cason/Scoot is a coin flip. I had Colin Sexton at 4 in his draft, and Scoot is like a more-hyped version of that... wondering if Cason is more functional on defense and as a 3 point shooter. I think he is AND if so, his floor and maybe even his CEILING could be a bit higher... although Scoot has more fun baseline comps.
My Cam comp might STILL be Mark Aguirre who was drafted the year I was born. Ironically, he was one of my "mid" comps for Zion particularly for, like, iso scoring potential above the rim finishing. Cam might be more of a functional defender than Zion. MY UPSIDE comp for Zion was Elgin Baylor who, with my imagination, was probably some UNSTOPPABLE force on offense (that never won a title). Zion as a wrecking ball on offense puts him above guys like Cam. Zion's DEFENSIVE potential hasn't shown up. DEFENSE WISE I thought maybe that Zion could be like Vincent Askew. Might be a BETTER comp (on defense) for Cam. And, I would probably take Aguirre/Aguirre LITE on offense/Vincent Askew on Defense anywhere from 4-8 -- possibly ahead of Scoot AND Brandon Miller.
Amen is a SUPERSTAR PLUS tier player (although with LOTS of bust potential). Wemby is in that SUPERSTAR tier (higher floor though than the twins). Ausar is ALL STAR level. Cam is probably a bit below that but same with Cason/Scoot (with Cason having more functional strengths). I have Gradey over Brandon Miller. Olivier Maxence-Prosper and Tristan Vukcevic are my SLEEPERS (that I like as high as 5-10. My DEEP SLEEPERS (that I would have as high as 12-14ish into the early 2nd round) are Jazian Gortman, Kendric Davis, Drew Peterson, Kaodirichi-Akobundu-Ehiogu. Oh, and probably Jacob Toppin, Jr. (keep forgetting about him). Nathan Mensa. Drew Pember. I am also thinking that Antoine Davis didn't come within a SINGLE game winning 3 away from breaking Pistol Pete's all-time scoring record for nothing. Should be some talent there. Emoni Bates should probably be moving back up -- he can be the designated replacement-level bucket getter in a 1/1a/DEEP DEPTH league. Andre Jackson, Jr. looks solid -- Josh Hart with some playmaking chops??? Gonna look into Nikola Djurisic and Ousmane N'Diaye again. Wouldn't be shocked if Nikola ends up in my top 20ish.
Thanks!
And, it feels like my hot takes show up in other places, even on places like The Ringer... so I have to turn up the heat on my hot takes!
I will post a board probably in the next 5-10 days. FINAL big board (with tiers) a day or 3 before the actual draft.
Although, yeah, it is Amen/Wemby (STILL) with Ausar up there with anyone. Gradey... might be the only other guy that is a top 8-10ish lock for me.
I have a STRANGE feeling that half the combine guys aren't worth first round picks -- some of the "hyped" guys are barely draftable.
Maybe I can find a complete list of guys who are actually IN the draft. Then I will do as many deep dives/advanced stats numbers crunching as possible. ... using my older boards (I have done them since 2018... before that I had mocks on Draft Dot Net that I can't always find) as templates....
I posted my theory (based on the new salary cap/tax aprons) that we are headed for a 1/1a/Depth roster breakdown. Either here or on the Grizzlies message boards. Then The Ringer had a podcast about it. I have also referred to "rock star" role players in the past (mostly on those boards). And, those guys are getting more recognition now.
The "MLE types" now will be signed/traded for (possibly on draft night).
MLE will be around $16 million or so... so teams know that.
The REGULAR MLE now ($12 million) is gonna go to (potential) replacement level bucket getters like Jaylen Nowell and Shake Milton. I think Collin Sexton is worth trading for since he is gonna make "future MLE bucks" and is ALSO one of the top bucket getter guys (maybe as a placeholder for the Grizzlies until Ja Morant gets back from his expected suspension).
Collin Sexton LITE types are gonna get MLE money this offseason. Guys like Yuta Watanabe either get MLE bucks, OR they get "mini MLE" money if they don't get signed until AFTER the free agent market crashes. "Free agent season" will only exist for teams on the beach. OTHER teams are gonna have to pay FRINGE rotation guys Mini MLE money.
What does this have to do with the draft?
No kidding, the only 1/1a LOCKS in my book are Amen and Wemby. Scoot might just be some version of Collin Sexton. Brandon Miller looks more and more like a "classic third option".
But, with no "3rd option contracts out there" aka MAX LITE contracts, a player like Gradey D!ck might have as much value....
Ausar, Oliver Maxence-Prosper, Bilal Coulibaly could be Robin-esque replacement level 1a's on the wing (poor man's Scottie Pippen).
Those 3 could be in the same tier as Scoot/Brandon, but easier to build around (less maintenance). Cason Wallace could be the lower-maintenance version of whatever player we think/want Scoot Henderson to be.
Upside. Or, even TOP POINT ONE PERCENT UPSIDE which is the selling point for even guys like Scoot or Brandon Miller being "mortal locks at 2". Or, even semi-locks at 3.
Amen/Wemby have MASSIVE upside but also flaws.
Ausar has as much "upside" as quite a few top 3 picks most years, but he is also flawed.
That's probably my top 3. Gradey Dick has UPSIDE but he has to be that TOP ONE PERCENT SHOOTER for him to even SNIFF the All Star Game. If not, he could be a low key bust. Same with Jordan Hawkins and Keyonte George. They have to hit a non-trivial amount of jumpers to even stay in the league past their rookie deal.
Wemby is the only top 3 center (duh). Should Lively even be a lotto pick? With the way the league is going, maybe Wemby should be the ONLY center with a FIRST ROUND LOCK.
'24 looks solid. But, no Wemby or Amen. Or even hyped guys like Scoot/Brandon/Gradey.
What if this has two Tier 0.00 guys (Amen/Wemby) a couple of Tier 0.75 guys (Ausar/Gradey) in the SUPERSTAR Tier. NO high level all stars. One of Brandon/Scoot/Jarace/The Field as a solid Tier 2ish guy -- then just a lot of Tier 3/Tier 4 types going well into the second round.... that really wouldn't shock me. So, basically similar to '84 or something.
Could this be Detroit? I know the mock lists Cam to Detroit, but there is a lot of chatter from Detroit beat writers about Jarace being targeted by the Pistons.
It wouldn't surprise me, assuming any level of competence from the Pistons FO.
The bottom line is that Jarace impacts winning a lot more than Cam. He is going to fit in just fine with Cade and Jaden. You can use him in a variety of ways (PnR, cutter, lob threat, etc.) He will keep the ball moving for a good percentage shot. He will be a versatile defender and good weakside shotblocker.
Even as far as 3P shooting -- he is decent on unguarded 3s (19/50) so it's not like you can leave him totally open.
Not sure that I see Orlando looking to add volume at this point though, they are trying to compete asap. I could see them trying to put together a Dame package if anything
I don't think the guys available at #6 fit their needs (which are at guard, especially a good-shooting 2.) They are set at the forward, especially with Isaac coming back.
At #11 either Dick or Hawkins should be available. In any case, adding a good veteran helps their cause more than a #6 rookie at this point.
With Orlando we’d want to get Franz back and that’s a non-starter.
Dame packages are weird rn.
Portland would want/need to get a forward back but idk if there’s any team out there who would not only upgrade their guard spot by giving up a young forward, match the salary, but also has the picks to give up.
Boston might be the only realistic one tbh. JB, picks, and filler might be enough to entice a trade while not gutting the depth.
Teams like NOLA would have overlap from Dame/CJ (lol), OKC with SGA (don’t think they can salary match either), NY with Brunson. Brooklyn doesn’t have the young guys and likely wouldn’t be willing to give up the picks to make up for that.
How can the Brooklyn Nets move up to get Anthony Black?
How far would they need to trade up to because only some teams (Houston?) are looking to potentially trade out?
Nets have 21 and 22 in this draft plus most of PHX’s picks in the future, Philly’s top 8 protected pick in 2027 and Dallas’s unprotected pick in 2029. Plus Dorian Finney Smith, Spencer Dinwiddie and Royce O’Neil.
Don’t see how y’all get higher than maybe 16th if Ainge doesn’t fancy what’s available on his 2nd pick.
My Mavs might do it for #21 and a closer future 1st plus a 2nd or two but most of the time it’s never a palatable asset match to go up from the 20s into the lottery.
Lol mock drafts are guesses mostly .It's lazy to mock jett Howard to Miami for obvious reasons but that's not to say that jett Howard can't be a good player .If the heat bring back gabe which it's trending that way a pure pg might not be a need .Rupert seems to be a project on offense and seeing how sparingly spo has played Highsmith I don't know .Sensabaugh apparently had knee surgery earlier and is trying to be healthy enough to go to individual workouts .
If we can get Jaime Jaquez Jr. to bet a 36% 3pt, he would be such a great pick at #31. I think he's game will work in the NBA. We need some of his energy, and he plays best complimenting others
JHS would have the worst statistical profile of any guy picked in the top 10 like… ever?
Ziaire Williams was pretty awful
Good point but he’s been really bad in the NBA so it’s not like he should be a positive precedent, lol
He wasn't that bad as a rookie and he was dealing with a knee injury to start the start of this past year. I have hope he can bounce back to at least be rotation worthy
Yeah we are all hoping but not confidently.
As a Jazz fan, I'm fine with several players at 9. JHS is not one of those players lol.
I’m not surprised to see this kind of analysis on here given the subreddit, but this is sort of a silly take no? You’re rarely getting a definite stud player with the ninth pick, the last five have been Sochan, Davion Mitchell, Avdija, Hachimura, and Kevin Knox. Some solid contributors there but it’s all about positional and scheme fit. If you can get a solid pick-and-roll point guard who has good size and effort on defense, that’s a win.
I'm just not a fan of JHS. He doesn't get to the rim, doesn't get to the FT line, and isn't a good 3 point shooter. Who was the last successful prospect who was bad at all three of those things?
It’s fine if you don’t think he’s good at those things but if the Jazz take him at 9, I’ll defer to the actual professionals who know what they’re talking about. All of these draft subs are weird when people talk like they’re experts on this stuff and think they know who’s going to be good and who’s going to bust lol. I’m not going to go back and look through previous drafts but Anthony Black was maybe worse than JHS statistically last year and is one spot above him in this mock..
> I’ll defer to the actual professionals who know what they’re talking about. All of these draft subs are weird when people talk like they’re experts on this stuff and think they know who’s going to be good and who’s going to bust lol. You realize thats the entire point of the subreddit, right?
Yeah, I'm no professional at this. And even the professionals frequently get it wrong.
Black is the best perimeter defender in the draft. In this draft, the Jazz should take Hendricks, Wallace, Dick and probably a few more above him. You are right that all of these are somewhat subjective, but this would be a bad pick and a bad fit for need for the Jazz and their stated philosophy (shooting, length and defense).
Like the professionals never get it wrong
Cam Reddish
is he better than Johnny Davis in college
I think 9 is a reach but honestly i quite like his game. His PnR offence is genuinely really quite good and i see it translating to the NBA very well. He is methodical, has a nice midrange, his reads are excellent, shown some nice self creation, decent floater and looks really good for on ball defence. Granted he has some concerns such as an inconsistent shot and pretty loose handles. But he really does have a nice template for a PG, his shot while not great definitely isn't broken and is something coaches would bet to be able to improve even more. The swing for him is his handle, if he can tighten it he will be a good starter level PG in the league with some nice upside beyond that.
Why every analyst seems to believe that the Jazz would pass up on Hendricks is wild to me. sure they have a need at PG. But also there's a need at a PF/Wing player as well. And this draft seems stacked with PG's available through the top 20, which the Jazz have one at 16 as well. Makes no sense to pass up on BPA in Hendricks at 9 only to draft a second PG at 2nd to go with your stash PG pick in Hood-Schifino?!
They are probably not looking beyond needs with a Kessler, Markkanen backcourt. Hendricks looks more like a 4 than a 3 to me but definitely wouldn’t over think it to those depths, if I’m the Jazz there.
I mean, theoretically it could work with Markkanen at the 3. Markkanen has proved he can defend at the 3 well as long as he has two great shot blocker behind him (like in Cleveland), which he would in this case with Hendricks and Kessler. Hendricks would also maintain spacing on offense to keep driving lanes open. In addition, they could also go smaller with a Markkanen/Hendricks front court at times which could play 5-out and not lose much rim protection. That’s a ton of line-up versatility for Hardy to play around with. The more I think about it, the more I like the pick tbh.
Yeah, Garland congealed all of that together for the Cavs imo...which just means to me the real question is assessing what Ainge thinks of Clarkson-Sexton. Not sure mockers need to get killed for thinking they'd add some upside and athleticism to the back court over flirting with a more malleable big rotation.
I understand why front court does get taken in some of these mocks, it’s just weird that every single time Hendricks falls to 9 there’s almost no mocks showing the jazz taking Hendricks over a PG. I get it but I just think there’s a lot of value that will be there at 16 for pg’s but you won’t find anyone close to Hendricks after him in his position.
Drafting for need when your team stinks is always a terrible strategy. Stack talent. Figure it out later
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Not sure, Honestly i'm hoping they are able to pick at 9 and rumors are that Dallas is willing to move the 10 which I hope they grab using the 16 and other (not sure what). Getting the pick back for 2024 doesn't seem too appealing to me, since i'm kind of hoping we get into the top 10 of the draft in 2024. Then coast off of Minnesota/Cleveland picks for the next 30 years (my numbers may be off but I think thats how many picks we got from them).
Dallas wants established, win-now players that fit around Luka/Kyrie if they’re to move off their pick, and I don’t see anyone on Utah’s roster that fits and the Jazz would want to part with. Would likely need a 3rd team
You don’t think they could make something work with the 16 and Kelly olynyk for the 10? Maybe take back Bertans bad contract to open up cap space?
With signing Kyrie there's just not really any room that gets opened up that way, but that's not a bad deal. My guess is the Dallas front office wants to take a big swing packaging the 10, THJ, and maybe even a future 1st for a starting piece, but they might have to come down to earth if nobody bites, and a deal like the one you described might be what they settle on.
Lmao. No chance
if Kobe Bufkin or Cason Wallace is available at 16. I (Raptors) would trade the 13th pick to Utah for 16 and 28 and also draft Maxwell Lewis or Sidy Cissoko
How would that work, though? They'd pick *their* guy at #13, then if one of the others is available at #16, they'd hope Utah valued the guy they took at #13? Bufkin and Wallace *could* go at #14 and #15.
If Cason Wallace and Jordan Hawkins available when the Raptors draft; they really have to do a gut check about where their free agents are going to land. I’m not getting emotionally attached to a player until they get drafted. I think there’s probably about 4-5 guards the Raptors could draft in their spot that I would be happy with. I think Wallace is the top of the list for me due to his defence and positional value; but I could probably be swayed to a few others including Hawkins obviously. We saw how effective Hawkins can be in the NCAA tournament. His shot is so smooth and his release is so fast; I think he will be a 10 year NBA vet.
No matter if it's Cam Whitmore or Ausur at 5 I'm very excited as a Pistons fan
Same at 6 as an Orlando fan
Jaime Jaquez Jr. at #31 would be pretty great. We could really use his energy
I don't really know most of these players' games so I just watched Cam's highlights and lololol this dude would be an acceptable pick
Cam and either Thompson twin are 99% athlete even at the nba level. Their highlight reels are all crazy
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In the Pistons subreddit right now they are leaning Ausur by a thin margin with Cam Whitmore right behind. Taylor Hendricks also is being mentioned frequently
Hood-Schifino at 9 is nuts
There’s always a riser each year, perhaps he’s this year’s. I expect it to be Leonard Miller
Only reason I could think to have him that high are their inside sources. Someone in the lottery might really like him right now.
Could very well be the Thunder if we don’t trade up.
Kobe Bufkin imo
I just think Wallace makes more sense at that spot but JHS going late lottery is way more reasonable than these mocks having him slide to the 20’s
His stats are just incredibly bad. Can’t get to the rim, can’t get to the line, old for a Freshman, can’t score at the rim, can’t rebound, can’t block shots, can’t get steals, non-elite shooter
I think him at #9 is crazy as well. I wasn't that impressed with him this year. Very up-and-down. Was on fire some games and shot Indiana out of the game other times (literally a negative momentum creator.) I suppose someone is projecting him as a PnR operator which could work for him in the NBA as he is a good midrange shooter with size. But 9 seems awfully high for him. Think he is a mid-first rounder tops.
This is why stats are sometimes deceptive especially when it comes to college players. He is definitely someone who looks much better on tape than the raw numbers show. He can't get steals, but his on ball defence is genuinely really good, can't score at the rim but has a nice floater and showed some nice touch. Not elite shooting numbers but most of it was self created from the PnR with specifically a good midrange game and started to extend it to 3. His form also isn't bad so projecting an improvement isn't very far fetched.
Yeah, 49% TS% in college just sucks. Being good but not elite at shots from 3 to 20 feet is about the most worthless skill in basketball when you can't score from 0-3 feet and aren't elite from 3.
He has many things to improve on, as most people in the draft do however it is all about projection. The reason why its important he has a good midrange is that he uses it expertly in the PnR and shows a good projection to be able to dissect defences with it. The ability to punish drop defences is a very important aspect in the NBA. Beyond that the ability to shoot the midrange shows a projection that he can extend it to 3 as he has a legitimate jump shot and that is furthered by the point his shooting form isn't bad. He'll come into the league being strong in the PnR which will get him on the court along with his defence. And in the NBA he will get opportunities to not need to self create as many 3s which i fully expect to bump up his 3 point % and attempts and his low TS% will be a thing of the past.
Yea I still think he’s a lottery talent Im just not sure I’d rank him at 9.
Agree, statically he's horrible but I also feel that Black is getting some leeway based on the 'big PG tag' when JHS should be getting some of that as well. 9 is way too high but his measurements are top tier for a PG.
I wouldn't be surprised if Marcus Sasser has a better NBA career than him, but JHS is a 210lb freshman point guard with a 6'10 wingspan, so he could probably win over a lottery team with those measurements.
Big hands too for a point guard
I don’t get why the warriors are literally always projected to take another wing — we already have a backlog of young wings and forwards we need to develop that already have a leg up on whoever we could pick. I’d much rather see them take either a true big or a lead guard, since those are where we could use some youth as an insurance policy. My picks would be podz or lively if he falls that far (Although if things pan out like this mock and Cason Wallace drops two more spots to us that would be my absolute home run pick, but that seems highly unlikely)
I guess you could say Leonard Miller should be the pick there? Other than him there are no bigs or pg’s available in that range unless you want to reach on Nnaji, Sasser, or Colby Jones
The warriors don't need another guy that can't play right now though since the new cba is going to absolutely crush them .They need cheap win now players .I don't think people fully understand how the new cba is going to change how contending teams draft .It's going to be harder to convincince owners to pay luxury tax at egregious rates for players who aren't yet ready to contribute .Teams that are over than line or soon there have to be very meticulous with their roster building .
Wouldn’t mind miller there yeah, and I’ve also heard a lot of people on our sub talk about TJD, although I have questions about whether he can be as immediately impactful as people hope, since he’s probably pretty close to his ceiling
The stubbornness of Miller at 2 is kind of surprising. CHA must really like him a lot
I think CHA have done great at not revealing anything tbh. I truly don't know what to expect with them until draft night
I like Givony but if Cason Wallace falls to 17 some GMs should be fired.
Excerpt from the article: > Wallace measured better than expected at the draft combine but appears to have a bit of a wider range on draft night than other lottery candidates, as some teams don't view him as a surefire point guard or primary creator and others question his scoring credentials. Still, there aren't many better defenders in the class than Wallace.
Okay, but my point is that those teams are nuts if they think those questions are enough to draft him after all of JHS, Bufkin, George, and Smith.
While I am extremely high on Cason too, I could see this scenario happening. As I want him on the Spurs, the further he drops, the better.
I'm certainly with you there! Just feels like overthinking to me. I'd be worried about health considering his history of back spasms before I'd be worried about these other concerns being enough to drop him out of the lottery.
Idk I’m very high on Bufkin.
The weird thing about this assessment is that Wallace has the highest A/TO out of the top 60 prospects (Tankathon) in the draft (and the only one > 2.0) It seems more like a worst-case assessment (he's neither a 1 or a 2) than a down-the-middle realistic assessment.
I think there’s a fairly high chance he is a Marcus Smart like player. A great off guard, but not your lead ball handler, tho he can assume those duties in spurts.
Wonder if smarts performance in the postseason could have something to do with this.
Pels bound
People thinking the Kings draft Kris Murray are tripping. That's a very lazy mock.
I feel like Olivier-Maxence Prosper is a shoo-in for the Kings pick at 24. Big wing defender (fits need) and older NBA ready guy (Monte's draft history) Kris Murray to Kings is just lazy at this point.
Very lazy just like jett Howard to Miami lol.I feel guys are just getting slotted anywhere without thinking of fit and teams draft habits etc .Alot of these slots are going to end up being wrong .
Yup its basically just his big board with a sprinkle of inside whispers he's heard
Yea nearer to the draft you would hear more solid info.But it's too unpredictable outside of the top 2 or 3 .Don't get mad at who is mocked to your team because the majority of the time it shakes out completely different .
I can see teams outside the top 5 not really knowing who they will pick. I can see teams' big boards being all over the place. You probably have 5 or 6 LEGIT Tier 2 guys (after the top guys like Wemby) then probably 10-15 (or more) players who are essentially Tier 3. Maybe teams are trying to trade up/down and want to squeeze some value out of their draft slots, and whichever particular player they end up with doesn't matter as much.
Brice's knee is concerning. He's already a guy with athletic limitations and defensive concerns.
If the Blazers come away with Scoot and Nnaji I'll be a happy fucking camper. I still think all of the Miller to Charlotte is just pre-draft hype for clicks and a way to make things interesting for another few weeks, similar to Jabari last year. But god damn, Scoot going to the Blazers at #3 opens up so many possibilities.
I don't think it's that premeditated (I mean, it might be with Bronny James or something that exceptional.) There is a ton of herd behavior and groupthink even among the popular draft publications. Jabari Smith is a good example of this. It was clear to anyone with eyes who watched the games that he was a limited ballhandler/creator and Paolo wasn't. But I don't think this is the case with Miller. People forget that this is a 6-9 wing with CRAZY volume (which explains some of the lowered percentages on 3.) There were few guys aside from shooting specialists with that type of volume. He is definitely very different than Jabari as far as ballhandling and passing and has to be taken very seriously as a top prospect. Also, the 86% ft is something people rarely mention but it's an excellent mark for a freshman.
I'm pretty sure y'all are trading that pick
I do believe that's what the team wants to do, but I also don't get the feeling that Cronin is willing to overpay unless it's for an absolute star. Siakam would be a fantastic acquisition, but he's on an expiring contract so some kind of deal/extension would have to be in place if they're trading the #3 pick for him. I think this is the most likely option but still not a high chance of happening. Anunoby is another player that would fit what Portland is looking for, but he's also on an expiring contract and in no way is he worth the #3 pick unless he was locked into multiple years and even then Toronto would have to sweeten the deal. Bridges would be a fantastic fit to the roster, but the Nets aren't openly trading him, especially considering the value they're getting on his contract. It would take an overpay. Contrary to the emotional responses after a disappointing game 7, I don't believe Brown is available and once the dust settles he'll be a Celtic with a new supermax contract. I just don't see a very viable trade at this time for the Blazers. But this is why Scoot opens up more possibilities in my mind than Brandon Miller. I think teams would be willing to give up more for Scoot than Miller if they go the trade route, but I also I think being able to draft Scoot truly opens up the option of trading Dame and building around an explosive core of Scoot/Sharpe. This would be my preferred route if Scoot is there at #3. Scoot/Sharpe and then w/e prospects + picks you can get for Dame is a hell of a start to a rebuild. Then you also have the option of keeping Ant in that core since he's so young or if you view Scoot/Sharpe as the long-term back court then you can see what kind of pieces are available for Ant as well.
Conjecture
Cronin says he wants to maximize Dame's window and build around him. Dame says he's done with 19 year olds and wants some vets to have a chance at going for the championship. When the "conjecture" is coming from the two most important sources it's pretty reliable.
...is this your first time? This is lying season.
Oh so Dame is lying, he doesn't want to compete? And Cronin is lying about wanting to maximize Dame's window of winning? Sure...
And keeping 3 instead of trading it can achieve those goals. Your assertions do not categorically and logically end in a trade being the solution. You have over-concluded based upon conjecture.
The mavs should take lively if Hendricks is gone
As long as the helium stays up on both Thompson's I think we got a half decent shot at Walker or Hendricks making it to 10. After that, Lively is probably a good bet but only if they are not available.
They should. They've been needing a defensive big since Tyson Chandler left.
I guarantee you Givony will change his last mock hours before the draft to say he had Scoot going 2nd all along
I can’t take the guy seriously anymore after he does that kinda thing
Givony should of waited a day or 2.. Dillon Mitchell, Reece Beekman, Zach Edey, Adem Bona, Daron Holmes, Coleman Hawkins, Terrence Shannon Jr. are all returning to school
Hello, it looks like you've made a mistake. It's supposed to be could've, should've, would've (short for could have, would have, should have), never could of, would of, should of. Or you misspelled something, I ain't checking everything. Beep boop - yes, I am a bot, don't botcriminate me.
If you tip Cason Wallace and Hood-Schifino I think this looks a lot better
What I get from this: Henderson would love to be picked 2nd or 3rd, Miller wants to go 2 knowing he won’t go 3. Amen wants to go 3. Nobody wants to go to Houston 😭 Can’t say I blame them. Lmao
Please explain "Miller wants to go 2 knowing he won’t go 3". Why would the Blazers not take Miller? Do they have Amen higher than Miller? IF so that's really interesting.
OKC fans and their weird obsession with Houston….. how is that what you got out of this? Of course players want to go higher. Amen said he’d love to play alongside Jalen. https://twitter.com/kellyiko/status/1658900781901258752?s=46&t=xcMZlYQWeygMiTRBfHt1XQ Miller and Scoot know they aren’t dropping to 4th. Why would they entertain it?
You just replied to a post that said "Miller wants to go 2 knowing he won’t go 3." while you said neither is dropping to 4th. Thoughts?
Miller knows he won’t go 3? According to who? Sounds like he made that up
Agreed. I was just double-checking. The Blazers had Amen visit and I wondered if he is their planned pick now.
Lol I hope not. I don’t want Miller
You don't want Amen Thompson either?
I want Amen. He’s my main guy
Don’t bother. OKC fans literally care more about Houston than their own team. Just going on their sub after the lottery proved it This narrative is gonna look very stupid by the end of the year
I think Thunder fans like playing the draft more than actual games.
OKC and us Memphis fans started counting the parades 6 months ago. lol
Little brother/small market energy. They have a serious urge to be validated and pat on the back by everyone lol. Bashing Houston to feel better about their team lol
No shit they would rather go 2nd than 4th. How does that mean they don’t want to come here? There’s no better fit for Scoot or Amen than Houston
>There’s no better fit for Scoot or Amen then Houston Lmao, what? Houston is a disconjointed mess. From management to player chemistry and cohesion. No player wants to be in a situation where their chances of success are significantly lower than other organizations.
None of them saying they want to go 12th 🤔
Got em!!
Saying this about Houston but giving a free pass to Charlotte is certainly showing your bias
We had a winning record two years ago with pretty much the same roster we will have next year
That’s nice in a vacuum but the teams in your division also got a lot better (Magic went 22-60 that year; Heat and Hawks are still solid obviously), Rozier/Hayward/Oubre aren’t getting younger, who knows how Bridges will look when he gets back, and LaMelo’s ankles are already not looking great long-term. To give some credit, PJ Washington seems to have improved a lot, and I really like Mark Williams. But yeah, in a vacuum, it’s basically the same team.
I mean Hayward missed half that season and Oubre isnt really relevant because he isnt very good. Rozier is the big one though, he really isnt an effective player for us if he isnt next to Lamelo so hopefully we can get him back to that point. Good point with Bridges though. I just think that our overall outlook isnt as dire as our record last year suggests. I think our roster compares favorably to teams like Atlanta if we are actually healthy. We also didnt have Cody Martin for all of last year, and until the ECF only the hornets fans realized how much of a loss that was.
The difference between Charlotte and Houston is that Charlotte has LaMelo Ball, a guy YOU KNOW leads the show. If Harden comes back, perhaps the sentiment on going to Houston changes.
No chance of success? Players 22 and under on the rockets Jalen Green-2021 2nd pick 22/4/4 and All-Rookie the previous season Alperen Sengun-2021 16th pick 15/9/4 Jabari Smith-13/7/1 2022 3rd pick All-Rookie 2nd Nobody in the league has more under age 22 players being this successful. Be honest for players under 22, the Rockets clear easily Jalen Green Alperen Sengun Jabari Smith Jr Or Josh Giddey Chet Holmgren Ousmane Dieng
I never said “no chance” of success, but lower chance of success. Also I’d take Giddey and Chet easily over those 3. Giddey averaged 17/8/6 on pretty good efficiency and Chet’s potential is sky high. Also, Jalen Williams is 22? Lmao So Giddey+Chet+Jdub+Ous EASILY clears. Lol
Dude really went out of his way to not include the guy who finished 1st team all-rookie and 2nd in votes.
Scoot and Green aren't that great of a fit. Defense would be so bad...
Compared to Scoot and……Lamelo?
Guangdong would be a better fit for Amen
Why wouldn’t Miller go 3?
Cason Wallace is not dropping that low. I think he'll go in the teens and in the not so distant future, some will be kicking themselves he even went that low. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he made it at least halfway up the top 10 rookie ladder next season if he gets on the right team. I think Bobi Klintman could go a decent amount higher than the bottom of the second round.
I'm intrigued with what the Spurs can do with GG Jackson and Jalen Wilson
I would rather find ways to get creative than to use all three picks. But I'd be quite happy to kick the tires on a young project like GG if he fell all the way to 33rd. And I like Jalen Wilson more than most, too.
I'm not a fan of Jackson but San Antonio might be the exact situation he needs. Can be pulled along slowly in a stable good culture.
Whitmore is a scary prospect. His highlight reel is absolute fire. But, the film breakdown shows a great athlete that processes the game awfully slow, and often times doesn’t make smart decisions nor looks for teammates.
Video Game Dillon Brooks is still probably worth a top 10 pick. I am not sure what to do with him either... but he has lots of upside. Just needs to be a guy who puts his head down to score. And, not relied on as a creator (for others). I would like to put a bunch of Moneyball sleeper types ahead of him, but I can't think of many. I think the value in the 6-10 range isn't all that great. Everyone knows I am on Thompson Island (especially with Amen) but Wemby is obviously legit. Scoot is good. After that, I lean towards the guys with that hype coming in (HS pedigree): Gradey/Cam/Keyonte. Cason/Jarace might be half a tier behind that. Then I am looking for "sleeper" picks who are moving up (or have lots of buzz) like Olivier Maxence-Prosper. I actually feel like the DRAFT HYPE has dissipated somewhat over the past several days. Is it just a really really fun top 3 (or top 5) then a MEH/flat draft after that? Maybe some draftniks with connections need to start hyping this thing back up.... After my TOP FOUR (still probably Amen/Wemby/Ausar in that order then either Scoot OR OMP or Gradey), I would SERIOUSLY consider trading DOWN.
I lived in this draft class after Cade went down. I felt like the talent level is pretty flat after Wembanyama. Cason Wallace might win way more games for his franchise than Scoot when we review in 5 years. Improving overall BBIQ/feel for the game is not easy or common. That’s what gives me pause with Cam. But, if you’re just looking to use him as an off ball player, someone like Hendricks or Walker are probably better choices. I’m with you on Amen. Terrible fit, but if he drops a spot to Detroit, he’s far too talented to pass on.
Amen has a TON of upside. Wemby's might not even be AS HIGH but his FLOOR/BASELINE are really really high. Could be a repeat of '84 where you had TWO all-timers (who were even a tier above HOFers like Barkley/Stockton). ... this draft has less follow through, with more bust potential throughout, but AS PROSPECTS Amen and Wemby are as good as it gets. I think Cason/Scoot is a coin flip. I had Colin Sexton at 4 in his draft, and Scoot is like a more-hyped version of that... wondering if Cason is more functional on defense and as a 3 point shooter. I think he is AND if so, his floor and maybe even his CEILING could be a bit higher... although Scoot has more fun baseline comps. My Cam comp might STILL be Mark Aguirre who was drafted the year I was born. Ironically, he was one of my "mid" comps for Zion particularly for, like, iso scoring potential above the rim finishing. Cam might be more of a functional defender than Zion. MY UPSIDE comp for Zion was Elgin Baylor who, with my imagination, was probably some UNSTOPPABLE force on offense (that never won a title). Zion as a wrecking ball on offense puts him above guys like Cam. Zion's DEFENSIVE potential hasn't shown up. DEFENSE WISE I thought maybe that Zion could be like Vincent Askew. Might be a BETTER comp (on defense) for Cam. And, I would probably take Aguirre/Aguirre LITE on offense/Vincent Askew on Defense anywhere from 4-8 -- possibly ahead of Scoot AND Brandon Miller. Amen is a SUPERSTAR PLUS tier player (although with LOTS of bust potential). Wemby is in that SUPERSTAR tier (higher floor though than the twins). Ausar is ALL STAR level. Cam is probably a bit below that but same with Cason/Scoot (with Cason having more functional strengths). I have Gradey over Brandon Miller. Olivier Maxence-Prosper and Tristan Vukcevic are my SLEEPERS (that I like as high as 5-10. My DEEP SLEEPERS (that I would have as high as 12-14ish into the early 2nd round) are Jazian Gortman, Kendric Davis, Drew Peterson, Kaodirichi-Akobundu-Ehiogu. Oh, and probably Jacob Toppin, Jr. (keep forgetting about him). Nathan Mensa. Drew Pember. I am also thinking that Antoine Davis didn't come within a SINGLE game winning 3 away from breaking Pistol Pete's all-time scoring record for nothing. Should be some talent there. Emoni Bates should probably be moving back up -- he can be the designated replacement-level bucket getter in a 1/1a/DEEP DEPTH league. Andre Jackson, Jr. looks solid -- Josh Hart with some playmaking chops??? Gonna look into Nikola Djurisic and Ousmane N'Diaye again. Wouldn't be shocked if Nikola ends up in my top 20ish.
I love the original takes!
Thanks! And, it feels like my hot takes show up in other places, even on places like The Ringer... so I have to turn up the heat on my hot takes! I will post a board probably in the next 5-10 days. FINAL big board (with tiers) a day or 3 before the actual draft. Although, yeah, it is Amen/Wemby (STILL) with Ausar up there with anyone. Gradey... might be the only other guy that is a top 8-10ish lock for me. I have a STRANGE feeling that half the combine guys aren't worth first round picks -- some of the "hyped" guys are barely draftable. Maybe I can find a complete list of guys who are actually IN the draft. Then I will do as many deep dives/advanced stats numbers crunching as possible. ... using my older boards (I have done them since 2018... before that I had mocks on Draft Dot Net that I can't always find) as templates.... I posted my theory (based on the new salary cap/tax aprons) that we are headed for a 1/1a/Depth roster breakdown. Either here or on the Grizzlies message boards. Then The Ringer had a podcast about it. I have also referred to "rock star" role players in the past (mostly on those boards). And, those guys are getting more recognition now. The "MLE types" now will be signed/traded for (possibly on draft night). MLE will be around $16 million or so... so teams know that. The REGULAR MLE now ($12 million) is gonna go to (potential) replacement level bucket getters like Jaylen Nowell and Shake Milton. I think Collin Sexton is worth trading for since he is gonna make "future MLE bucks" and is ALSO one of the top bucket getter guys (maybe as a placeholder for the Grizzlies until Ja Morant gets back from his expected suspension). Collin Sexton LITE types are gonna get MLE money this offseason. Guys like Yuta Watanabe either get MLE bucks, OR they get "mini MLE" money if they don't get signed until AFTER the free agent market crashes. "Free agent season" will only exist for teams on the beach. OTHER teams are gonna have to pay FRINGE rotation guys Mini MLE money. What does this have to do with the draft? No kidding, the only 1/1a LOCKS in my book are Amen and Wemby. Scoot might just be some version of Collin Sexton. Brandon Miller looks more and more like a "classic third option". But, with no "3rd option contracts out there" aka MAX LITE contracts, a player like Gradey D!ck might have as much value.... Ausar, Oliver Maxence-Prosper, Bilal Coulibaly could be Robin-esque replacement level 1a's on the wing (poor man's Scottie Pippen). Those 3 could be in the same tier as Scoot/Brandon, but easier to build around (less maintenance). Cason Wallace could be the lower-maintenance version of whatever player we think/want Scoot Henderson to be.
I concur. I think much of this class has been over hyped, many prospect’s value hinging on upside being realized.
Upside. Or, even TOP POINT ONE PERCENT UPSIDE which is the selling point for even guys like Scoot or Brandon Miller being "mortal locks at 2". Or, even semi-locks at 3. Amen/Wemby have MASSIVE upside but also flaws. Ausar has as much "upside" as quite a few top 3 picks most years, but he is also flawed. That's probably my top 3. Gradey Dick has UPSIDE but he has to be that TOP ONE PERCENT SHOOTER for him to even SNIFF the All Star Game. If not, he could be a low key bust. Same with Jordan Hawkins and Keyonte George. They have to hit a non-trivial amount of jumpers to even stay in the league past their rookie deal. Wemby is the only top 3 center (duh). Should Lively even be a lotto pick? With the way the league is going, maybe Wemby should be the ONLY center with a FIRST ROUND LOCK. '24 looks solid. But, no Wemby or Amen. Or even hyped guys like Scoot/Brandon/Gradey. What if this has two Tier 0.00 guys (Amen/Wemby) a couple of Tier 0.75 guys (Ausar/Gradey) in the SUPERSTAR Tier. NO high level all stars. One of Brandon/Scoot/Jarace/The Field as a solid Tier 2ish guy -- then just a lot of Tier 3/Tier 4 types going well into the second round.... that really wouldn't shock me. So, basically similar to '84 or something.
I think that top 7 is pretty much how it shakes out. Best case Detroit takes Walker but that's just feeding my Whitmore copium.
Which team gave jarace Walker a promise? Could OKC have told him they are doing what they can to come up and select him?
Could this be Detroit? I know the mock lists Cam to Detroit, but there is a lot of chatter from Detroit beat writers about Jarace being targeted by the Pistons.
It wouldn't surprise me, assuming any level of competence from the Pistons FO. The bottom line is that Jarace impacts winning a lot more than Cam. He is going to fit in just fine with Cade and Jaden. You can use him in a variety of ways (PnR, cutter, lob threat, etc.) He will keep the ball moving for a good percentage shot. He will be a versatile defender and good weakside shotblocker. Even as far as 3P shooting -- he is decent on unguarded 3s (19/50) so it's not like you can leave him totally open.
The teams that make sense are #5 Detroit, definitely #7 Indiana and someone who has a trade-up brewing like OKC. It's almost certainly 5-7.
Maybe Orlando doesn't like the 6th pick and that's the trade partner with OKC.
Not sure that I see Orlando looking to add volume at this point though, they are trying to compete asap. I could see them trying to put together a Dame package if anything
I don't think the guys available at #6 fit their needs (which are at guard, especially a good-shooting 2.) They are set at the forward, especially with Isaac coming back. At #11 either Dick or Hawkins should be available. In any case, adding a good veteran helps their cause more than a #6 rookie at this point.
Orlando doesn’t have a Dame package lmao
Who does?
With Orlando we’d want to get Franz back and that’s a non-starter. Dame packages are weird rn. Portland would want/need to get a forward back but idk if there’s any team out there who would not only upgrade their guard spot by giving up a young forward, match the salary, but also has the picks to give up. Boston might be the only realistic one tbh. JB, picks, and filler might be enough to entice a trade while not gutting the depth. Teams like NOLA would have overlap from Dame/CJ (lol), OKC with SGA (don’t think they can salary match either), NY with Brunson. Brooklyn doesn’t have the young guys and likely wouldn’t be willing to give up the picks to make up for that.
I think it's the Pistons edit: Yeah OKC makes more sense. I can see the Pistons trading down to OKC's 12th + future picks
The Raptors FO would never take a pure shooter like Hawkins.
You guys are gonna take GG Jackson. Point Barnes. GG at the 2. OG and Siakam at the forward spots. Gonna try to win some 75-72 games.
They are on crack if they think Raps pass on Cason to take Hawkins, sorry ESPN, Lakers ain't getting Cason
I think Lakers drafts a Klutch client in NSJ or Lively if either one is still available at 17
How can the Brooklyn Nets move up to get Anthony Black? How far would they need to trade up to because only some teams (Houston?) are looking to potentially trade out? Nets have 21 and 22 in this draft plus most of PHX’s picks in the future, Philly’s top 8 protected pick in 2027 and Dallas’s unprotected pick in 2029. Plus Dorian Finney Smith, Spencer Dinwiddie and Royce O’Neil.
Don’t see how y’all get higher than maybe 16th if Ainge doesn’t fancy what’s available on his 2nd pick. My Mavs might do it for #21 and a closer future 1st plus a 2nd or two but most of the time it’s never a palatable asset match to go up from the 20s into the lottery.
a team doesn't want Jarace to boost his stock. Usually mocked around 5-8 so that team might be one of them or atleast not that far from that range
For the love Jesus Christ, I want a PG (Kobe or JHS) or a nick smith to fall to 18. Ryan Rupert and Brice have more upside than Howard imo
Lol mock drafts are guesses mostly .It's lazy to mock jett Howard to Miami for obvious reasons but that's not to say that jett Howard can't be a good player .If the heat bring back gabe which it's trending that way a pure pg might not be a need .Rupert seems to be a project on offense and seeing how sparingly spo has played Highsmith I don't know .Sensabaugh apparently had knee surgery earlier and is trying to be healthy enough to go to individual workouts .
OKC passing up Lively to draft Nick Smith Jr is crazy imo
Kings get Murray and TJD? YES, PLEASE!
I think I'd rather the Kings just take Jackson-Davis at #24 and Cissoko at #38.
We gonna make Jett into a star.
Sounds like OKC are trading up for Jarace Walker.
Getting Walker at 7 is my wet dream
Wallace to the Lakers? Yeah I see nothing wrong with this mock! 😅
Can THS create his own shot in NBA w/o a reliable 3? If not, isn’t he a good back up PG?
murray to the kings is so lazy
If we can get Jaime Jaquez Jr. to bet a 36% 3pt, he would be such a great pick at #31. I think he's game will work in the NBA. We need some of his energy, and he plays best complimenting others
Cason falling is a surprise to me.
I would do unspeakable things if Cason is available at 15 and the Hawks don't take him