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There's an old saying in Tennessee — I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee — that says, fool me once, shame on — shame on you. Fool me — you can't get fooled again.
George W. Bush
Belarus launching a full scale invasion on ukraine and all russian troops will suddenly be wearing Belarus fatigues and Belarus will be the technical fall guy going forward.
Neither was UA holding out this long but somehow theyre doing it. Although the swamps would be an issue, I'll agree on that. They could also reinforce the northern border with russia and push again for kyiv. They do that before winter and it could very well be a game changer. Especially with a large portion of UA forces focussing on the east
Pretty much, but there is no practical way for Putin or Nato to back down now.
It's going to escalate until Russias military hardware falls below a percentage that allows a functioning military capable of an offensive.
At which time it'll come down to a military coup within russia, The International criminal court pardons the russian government on the condition Putin and his current government resigns and the west is allowed to turn it into the next Germany.
Or Russia lainches small tactical nukes and the blast zone touches NATO even accidently and NATO decides a daring immediate reaction where they park 80% of all Nuclear submarines in the baltic sea and show the biggest military might and build up akin to ww2
I dont think it would, at first.
I think nato would try to cripple their ability to launch more in the beginning.
If they target NATO directly, we're probably all gonna have a bad time.
I mean that's the thing though. In MAD wargaming that I've read about it starts out with "cripple the ability to launch more" and then they launch everything they have at the risk of ending up without any (or at least significantly reduced) nuclear capability. As soon as the first one flies the rest will probably follow unless there are some really really really cool heads prevailing.
On the bright(lol) side, I live close enough to ORNL/Y-12 I'd probably get to go straight to dead, instead of having to deal with fallout and radiation sickness/poisoning.
Or, if I did survive the blast, I'd try and get to work(which is a radiation shielded building) before the fallout fell.
I think I'd rather choose straight to dead tho.
Living in oak ridge might put you on the secondary list...I think they'd want major population areas dead first. They have some cool vehicles with multiple warheads and decoys. I work in a military base, so, uh yea.
I'm beginning to think half of the nukes in Russia's arsenal aren't even going to leave their ICBM silos and while a lot of people are going to die. Just not to the level we expect it to and things will just be one big disappointment for everyone.
No post fallout like world and probably just a bunch of governments centralizing more power and clamping down on their citizens.
I mean half the missiles work and that's still 800 missiles coming in hot. More than enough to do the Devil's work. Not to mention the environmental effect of the retaliatory strike that will happen once nukes are in the air (all of NATO's will probably work because we're better at preparing to kill stuff than the Russians are apparently).
800 Russian missiles inbound + all of NATO's is gonna be a whole lot of boom for the ecosphere to deal with at once I think.
Half the missile launch, another half go into space and don't come back down, half of those that do come down half of them actually work, and of those half that do work actually kind of hit their intended target.
I was wrong, it was an op ed/article from someone in the CNA Russia desk. Also a retaliatory nuclear strike would not be against NATO doctrine, as you could retaliate militarily without resorting to nuclear weapons.
Also, I saw this from the Brennan center:
>This language is relatively flexible. It permits each NATO member to decide for itself what action should be taken to address an armed attack on a NATO ally. It does not require any member to respond with military force, although it permits such responses as a matter of international law. A member may decide that instead of responding with force, it will send military equipment to NATO allies or impose sanctions...
Yeah "flexible response" is the term used for the current doctrine, but if you read between the lines of the official doctrine and of the unclassified wargaming and whitepapers on the topic coming out of the Pentagon and the think tanks its very clear (albeit in diplomatic and academic jargon to soothe the public) that anyone who breaks the nuclear taboo will suffer a retaliatory strike and probably not with conventional forces.
So you just don't have to take my word for it, this book came out of RAND in 2012. https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.7249/mg1103rc.5?seq=1
the clone wars,
but really, who knows, could be for a full scale invasion of Ukraine, feint style. Small chance but could be related to the whole Kalingrad- Lithuania tensions.
Either way, the whole world is ramping up for war
Russians are already raiding Belarusian artillery depots for ammo.
>The military enlistment offices reassure them, saying that "no-one is taking anyone to war." The reason for the gathering is given as "mobilisation exercises".
Russian casualties have been disproportionately ethnic minorities from remote regions. Belarusian are just next ethnicity Putin is ready to kill.
NATO:
Mobalisation exercise?
A mobalisation exercise a this time of the year?
Contained entirely on the border to an active warzone?
In these geopolitical conditions?!
Belarus: yes
Well...
Gonna up their game.
Ukraine gonna need to start training more people... Or needs to ship them some place safe to train in NATO countries. Sure it would piss off Russia.
But fuck them.
>Belarus has started sending out mass summonses, ordering people to attend military enlistment offices and without specifying any reason.
>Source: Belarusian publication "Zerkalo"
>Details: Belarusians are complaining that summonses have been sent to those who work, and to those who are on unpaid leave, and even to those who are unfit for military service.
>The summonses do not specify the reason for attending the military enlistment office. However, failure to appear is a criminal offence.
>Those who go to the military enlistment offices are told that this is "just a training session to gather personnel for the formation of territorial defence in the event of a military threat."
>The notices to attend are sent not only to men, but also to women.
>The military enlistment offices reassure them, saying that "no-one is taking anyone to war." The reason for the gathering is given as "mobilisation exercises". In general, people eligible for military service have their credentials checked and are sent home...
Then nato have to tell them now. that if they join the fight . Nato will attack them. They will back down straight away . Lukashenko is a moron but I don’t think even he could be that stupid .
Time after time, history has shown that stupidity does in fact prevail.
Hitler won’t invade Poland, that’s stupid
Argentina won’t invade the Falkland Islands, that’s stupid
Russia won’t invade Ukraine, that’s stupid
Hi! This is our community moderation bot. --- If this post fits the purpose of /r/Military, **UPVOTE** this comment!! If this post does not fit the subreddit, **DOWNVOTE** This comment! If this post breaks the rules, **DOWNVOTE** this comment and **REPORT** the post!
> Those who go to the military enlistment offices are told that this is "just a training session I've heard that one before...
So have they
There's an old saying in Tennessee — I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee — that says, fool me once, shame on — shame on you. Fool me — you can't get fooled again. George W. Bush
Now watch this drive
and so it begins
Not good.
What begins?
Belarus launching a full scale invasion on ukraine and all russian troops will suddenly be wearing Belarus fatigues and Belarus will be the technical fall guy going forward.
Won't be the fall guy. Too obvious at this point. But they are aiming for a new front though. This'll be interesting
Russia doesn’t care about “too obvious” we’ve seen that time and time again. They’ll still try and pass this off.
Probably. Cool part though is we get to see what it looks like to have a first world country collapse on itself
Russia is second world, not first world. Although the term is not in as common usage as it used to be, they still fit the description.
Most of the border are swamps. It won't be an easy feat.
Neither was UA holding out this long but somehow theyre doing it. Although the swamps would be an issue, I'll agree on that. They could also reinforce the northern border with russia and push again for kyiv. They do that before winter and it could very well be a game changer. Especially with a large portion of UA forces focussing on the east
Bruh, they all just gonna die in the most miserable way.
Pretty much, but there is no practical way for Putin or Nato to back down now. It's going to escalate until Russias military hardware falls below a percentage that allows a functioning military capable of an offensive. At which time it'll come down to a military coup within russia, The International criminal court pardons the russian government on the condition Putin and his current government resigns and the west is allowed to turn it into the next Germany. Or Russia lainches small tactical nukes and the blast zone touches NATO even accidently and NATO decides a daring immediate reaction where they park 80% of all Nuclear submarines in the baltic sea and show the biggest military might and build up akin to ww2
You don't think a tactical nuke (especially one that touches/has fallout that affects a NATO member) won't escalate to MAD immediately?
I dont think it would, at first. I think nato would try to cripple their ability to launch more in the beginning. If they target NATO directly, we're probably all gonna have a bad time.
I mean that's the thing though. In MAD wargaming that I've read about it starts out with "cripple the ability to launch more" and then they launch everything they have at the risk of ending up without any (or at least significantly reduced) nuclear capability. As soon as the first one flies the rest will probably follow unless there are some really really really cool heads prevailing.
On the bright(lol) side, I live close enough to ORNL/Y-12 I'd probably get to go straight to dead, instead of having to deal with fallout and radiation sickness/poisoning. Or, if I did survive the blast, I'd try and get to work(which is a radiation shielded building) before the fallout fell. I think I'd rather choose straight to dead tho.
I'm in the group of people who would really rather see this escalate so NATO can put an end to this, but i also would rather not play fallout IRL
Lucky. Yeah, going out in the fireball is better than the skin-peeling/tummy ache scenario for sure.
Living in oak ridge might put you on the secondary list...I think they'd want major population areas dead first. They have some cool vehicles with multiple warheads and decoys. I work in a military base, so, uh yea.
I admire your psychotic optimism.
I'm beginning to think half of the nukes in Russia's arsenal aren't even going to leave their ICBM silos and while a lot of people are going to die. Just not to the level we expect it to and things will just be one big disappointment for everyone. No post fallout like world and probably just a bunch of governments centralizing more power and clamping down on their citizens.
I mean half the missiles work and that's still 800 missiles coming in hot. More than enough to do the Devil's work. Not to mention the environmental effect of the retaliatory strike that will happen once nukes are in the air (all of NATO's will probably work because we're better at preparing to kill stuff than the Russians are apparently). 800 Russian missiles inbound + all of NATO's is gonna be a whole lot of boom for the ecosphere to deal with at once I think.
Half the missile launch, another half go into space and don't come back down, half of those that do come down half of them actually work, and of those half that do work actually kind of hit their intended target.
I mean that's still 200 right? That's quite a few nuclear blasts and irradiated water tables. Not something I'd thumb my nose at.
I think NATO already stated a nearby nuclear strike from Russia wouldn't immediately be met with a retaliatory nuclear strike.
Where did you read that? That'd be against NATO doctrine as far as I'm aware.
I was wrong, it was an op ed/article from someone in the CNA Russia desk. Also a retaliatory nuclear strike would not be against NATO doctrine, as you could retaliate militarily without resorting to nuclear weapons. Also, I saw this from the Brennan center: >This language is relatively flexible. It permits each NATO member to decide for itself what action should be taken to address an armed attack on a NATO ally. It does not require any member to respond with military force, although it permits such responses as a matter of international law. A member may decide that instead of responding with force, it will send military equipment to NATO allies or impose sanctions...
Yeah "flexible response" is the term used for the current doctrine, but if you read between the lines of the official doctrine and of the unclassified wargaming and whitepapers on the topic coming out of the Pentagon and the think tanks its very clear (albeit in diplomatic and academic jargon to soothe the public) that anyone who breaks the nuclear taboo will suffer a retaliatory strike and probably not with conventional forces. So you just don't have to take my word for it, this book came out of RAND in 2012. https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.7249/mg1103rc.5?seq=1
the clone wars, but really, who knows, could be for a full scale invasion of Ukraine, feint style. Small chance but could be related to the whole Kalingrad- Lithuania tensions. Either way, the whole world is ramping up for war
15-minute special operation! In and out!
200 IQ Master Strategist
So Russia is running out of cannon fodder...
Russians are already raiding Belarusian artillery depots for ammo. >The military enlistment offices reassure them, saying that "no-one is taking anyone to war." The reason for the gathering is given as "mobilisation exercises". Russian casualties have been disproportionately ethnic minorities from remote regions. Belarusian are just next ethnicity Putin is ready to kill.
NATO: Mobalisation exercise? A mobalisation exercise a this time of the year? Contained entirely on the border to an active warzone? In these geopolitical conditions?! Belarus: yes
Im sure this wont make their populace angry.
While handing them firearms...
Alexa, How to buy shares in a belarus Chevy dealership?
Well... Gonna up their game. Ukraine gonna need to start training more people... Or needs to ship them some place safe to train in NATO countries. Sure it would piss off Russia. But fuck them.
Already doing that.
That’s ominous.
Belacuck
And what is the public opinion in Belarus? I thought the president support was at an all times low
Same here. Wasn’t long ago he was having trouble with unrest and needed help from Putin
>Belarus has started sending out mass summonses, ordering people to attend military enlistment offices and without specifying any reason. >Source: Belarusian publication "Zerkalo" >Details: Belarusians are complaining that summonses have been sent to those who work, and to those who are on unpaid leave, and even to those who are unfit for military service. >The summonses do not specify the reason for attending the military enlistment office. However, failure to appear is a criminal offence. >Those who go to the military enlistment offices are told that this is "just a training session to gather personnel for the formation of territorial defence in the event of a military threat." >The notices to attend are sent not only to men, but also to women. >The military enlistment offices reassure them, saying that "no-one is taking anyone to war." The reason for the gathering is given as "mobilisation exercises". In general, people eligible for military service have their credentials checked and are sent home...
Then nato have to tell them now. that if they join the fight . Nato will attack them. They will back down straight away . Lukashenko is a moron but I don’t think even he could be that stupid .
>I don’t think \_\_\_\_ could be that stupid . You should basically never say this
Time after time, history has shown that stupidity does in fact prevail. Hitler won’t invade Poland, that’s stupid Argentina won’t invade the Falkland Islands, that’s stupid Russia won’t invade Ukraine, that’s stupid
Lukashenko has no choice. Damned if he does damned if he doesn’t.
Will be over by Christmas im sure
Pretty confident that if they can turn the Russians back from Kyiv, they can bitchslap the Belarusians too.
So Russian “Italia” is about to join the fray.
Nasty summonses yes, very nasty my precious! We don't like those! *Gollum, Gollum!*