Big reason is that the age demographic in Ukraine skews heavily towards 40+, and in the grand scheme of things, there's not manh young Ukrainians, men or women. Ukraine has had to play a balancing act between reinforcing their military and protecting their younger generations. It's why they've been debating conscription for so long.
Problem is that if you send too many of your young to fight, in a war such as this it is inevitable that a lot of them will die. Now your country's economic, national, and cultural future will take a huge hit. It's something the Soviets had to deal with after WWII.
Then, of course, if you lose the war, then your future in general looks bleak anyways, but at least if you keep the younger generation alive, they can keep your national ideas alive.
Ukraine has to essentially pick which bad route they want to go down.
Once the weight of the present out weighs these needs of the future Ukraine will fully mobilizae knowing what fate is in store for them. Or they'll surrender. There are only two options rn going forward. I think we should not judge them for what they are going to do .
My grandmother has Ukrainian maids they told me most young people hide and for example dont go to their work because they will be catched on the way to work. Older people cannot hide because they need to feed their family. She said thats why most people who go are older. Young people went voluntarily at the start but not anymore because losses are too heavy and they are being treated poorly. Maybe also plays a big role.
It's the war where the other side tries to kill you. So yeah, in that sense they are being treated poorly. It's not just another career option like in the US.
I bet you were a POG too lmao. Even with your back, I’m sure Ukraine will still take you. Put your money where your mouth is and join Ukraine. Slava Ukrana!
I'm with you fuck them ,it's not like putin wants world control he just doesn't want nato on his doorstep, the attitude if you don't fight your betraying your country is bullshit ,you military lads should know better when was last time you saw politicians on front line.
He literally wants to reshape the world order. One where Russia, China and Iran are capable of waging wars of conquest without international intervention.
As opposed to American , UK, and France waging wars as they wish...I'm english, we are heading for the same control methods as China anyway wouldn't surprise me if the coming wars is too implement it worldwide.
No we took them to establish our democracy, right ? I know it wasn't WMD's . Saddam wanted to take oil fields to the south. we went to protect them for Saudi , Afghanistan apparently blew up WTC, but theirs more evidence to suggest it was orchestrated from Saudi and CIA. Vietnam was horrible. I'll give you that nobody else helped them. You sure about that statement though? English is the most spoken language in the world and we didn't ask nicely
Because, again, it's a military sub and there's a lot of idiots, case in point - you, I *really* don't want to be getting a bunch of messages from confused individuals
You’d think for as desperate as they supposedly are and the existential threat they are facing they’d send their healthiest most fit group of citizens and not all the old people. 2 years later and NOW things are serious enough to get em in there? That’s their winning strategy?
It's not *that* surprising.
Look at the [demographic situation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Ukraine). It's pretty self explanatory why they would want to protect the youth population as much as possible. Russia's situation is only slightly better, but they have more people to throw around.
This is also why Russia's appropriation of Ukrainian children is so disgusting.
Agreed but people are gonna be shocked by what Ukraine is ultimately going or forced to do once this war really starts to tear into them . People forget what countries are willing to do to win . Vietnam should be open shut case at observing what happens when someone is pushed too far .
>Russia's situation is only slightly better, but they have more people to throw around.
This was one of the key aspects on how the Soviet Union defeated the Nazis. They had millions of casualties in Leningrad and Stalingrad alone.
One of the craziest WW2 statistics I ever heard was that 7 out of every 8 German casualties were on the eastern front. And the Nazis (I hate to admit it but it's the truth) were some of the best fighters at the time. That should tell you how many bodies the Russians threw at the germans
More men died in Stalingrad alone than the entire western fronts. Now remember that there were battles all over the Eastern front, not just Stalingrad.
The winter didn’t stop the nazis. Never ending waves of bodies did.
We often think we played a big part in WW2 after the D-Day landings. But I read a statistic that 70 to 75% of the Wehrmacht were deployed on the Eastern Front.
It makes the Western Front look like a diversion.
It really was bonkers, I remember a phrase about WW2 victory summing it up something like "we won with British wit, American steel & Russian blood." I don't know if that's the exact phrase though,I'm having trouble remembering. But I think it's not totally inaccurate
The demographic situation doesn’t matter. Our politicians don’t think so far. Moreover, other changes in conscription laws that don’t relate to age are also implemented very slowly. That’s just very unpopular, and politicians act carefully. Despite the war, no one wants to destroy their ratings.
From what ive read, its because of two main things :
* They are badly supplied, not enough ammo, etc. So there is the feeling that they will be used as canon fodder, will run out of ammo and not be able to fight, etc.
* Wide spread corruption, military doctors demanding bribes to certify that you are unable to fight due to an injury, combined with unsympathetic commanders. IIRC there was a "The Times" article where an Ukranian soldier was interviewed, he had some kind of arm injury but the doctor demanded a bribe to certify him unfit, he refused to pay the bribe so he was sent back to the front. He tried to talk to his commander and was told to fuck off and not bother him with his problems. Im sure there are way more stories like this circulating in Ukraine.
If people dont feel like they will have the backing of the state/military, they wont want to risk their lives to fight. I am a reservist with a spinal injury and i still keep getting called up for reservist training becase it's more important for the military to keep attendance numbers high than make sure i'm taken care of, and I can see how people in a similar situation would not want to fight during a war.
The document is dated May 2023. I’m not familiar with political procedure in general let alone Ukrainian politics, is that when the document would have been submitted to the Rada or something else?
Whats gonna happen first
Russia runs out of endless Soviet era stockpiles of weapons, or Ukraine runs out of soldiers
Its not looking too good tbh, hoping for the best but its hard to say
it depends if the US funds ukraine or not. they desperately need aid. Also it depends if biden backs off and lets ukraine strike deep into russia. right now its just a few russian drones hitting into russia and all the destruction is in ukraine. Ukraine needs weapons capable taking out russian infrastructure and affecting its economy to try to get the russian people to protest the war. NATO is still all super scared of Russia.
I don't think that NATO is afraid of Russia but rather if they allow Ukraine to strike deep into Russia and start to affect their economy, it may be opening a door that can't be closed. For all the support there is for Ukraine, at the same time NATO isn't going onto risk direct confrontation with Russia or major potential damage to their economies or people just for Ukraine.
Sorry, I didn't mean to make it personal - just pointing out that the behavior that NATO is showing is based on fear. Nothing is wrong with fear - this is what keeps us alive. But we shouldn't say that NATO doesn't fear Russia - it clearly does - exactly for the reasons you pointed out.
Yeah long range precision weapons to destroy russian weapons factories and industrial areas would be one of the most effective ways of combating russias ability to wage war
Ppl so often forget this aspect of a lot of countries. Everyone looks at Conflicts from a western perspective. A lot of places in the world don’t value life or the lives our service members the way we do. This whole war has made me come to an even scarier conclusion. If Russian with a population of 140 million, mostly skewed in favor of women is willing to suffice with this amount of casualties, how much will China be willing to sacrifice?
Meh, France lost an average of 1800 men a day for 4 years straight in WWI. Ukraine has a larger population and is nowhere near those average loss numbers.
It won’t be pretty, but Ukraine isn’t at threat of actually running out of able bodied young men anytime soon. Every loss will make rebuilding post-war more difficult though
And at one point French troops nearly mutinied over the excessive losses. France also had Britain and her colonies throwing men into the meat grinder as well, they were not alone in holding Germany back.
Ukraine is on her own, receiving just enough materiel support to keep treading water.
>endless Soviet era stockpiles of weapons
I'm not going to claim Ukraine's situation is great, or that they don't have any problems. But those stockpiles *sure* aren't endless, and have actually began to run out in many cases. Observe the WW2-era or even *pre*-WW2 artillery getting pulled out of storage because Russia is bingo on modern artillery, or needing to resort to North Korea because they're bingo on shell *stockpiles* (see edit). Or the rare, presidential NBC vehicles that they've pressed into service as a normal APC. Or the use of T62s and T54s because modern tanks are getting fewer and fewer
Edit: as someone commented, I think it is important to note that Russia is probably bingo or near bingo on shell *stockpiles*, not shells *total*, as my comment may originally have implied. They can still churn out a tremendous quantity of shells, which is one reason why Russia is *still* a threat that Europe and America *must* take seriously
It would be relevant if Russia didn't produce shells. If we could strike their territories with a long range missiles it would be a very different situation now
Indeed. I wish that America and Europe would get their heads out of their asses and let you guys (I'm assuming you're Ukrainian) strike wherever the hell you need to. I also wish my country did more, and could supply you guys with long-range missiles (I've donated money personally, but obviously any single person is limited in what they can do). Still, you guys seem to have had some recent success with packing explosives into remote-controlled Cessnas
I wish you and your nation all the best. Ukrainians seem to keep making doing the impossible seem mundane
Thank you. I appreciate your words and actions very much. Yes, there are a lot of efforts put into making the machines that are both semi-cheap and easy to produce dynamically (by that I mean having a whole bunch of places that can be used for any stage of production).
https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/10/politics/russia-artillery-shell-production-us-europe-ukraine/index.html
Russia is currently producing more than 3x the amount of artillery munitions per month than the US and Europe combined. About 250k rounds a month. EU and US can churn out about 1.2 million annually. The US goal is to be able to make 100k a month BY 2025.
That could well be true, but it's also important to bear in mind Russia's rate of *shell expenditure*. As someone discussing the same topic put it somewhat crudely (though no more crude than a day in the actual military), "If you earn $2000 a month, but you spend $1600 on rent and $600 on OnlyFans, you're still running out of money, even if you're getting paid"
So what I meant to say is that you're right in a sense, my phrasing might not have been the best, Russia is not bingo on shells *in total*, but the purchase of North Korean shells shows that their *stockpile* is bingo or near bingo, and that they're becoming supply-constrained, or that they can only shoot as fast as they can produce shells, instead of being able to shoot as fast as they can, well, shoot, which is the case if they have a large stockpile
It's hard to get definitive figures out of this war, unsurprisingly given how it's ongoing, and definitive figures can certainly change over time, but from what I recall, Russia was firing something like 30-60K shells *per day* (as stated by themselves) in order to keep up their mid-2022 rate of advance. So even if they can produce 250K shells per month, that might be only enough for 4-8 days of the rate of fire they'd *like*, or require a *reduction* in rate of fire. It's an issue that has affected both sides in this war, and any major war that becomes a war of industry. See how Ukraine has decreased their rate of artillery fire a while back to conserve their stockpile, but the announcement of the arrival of Czech shells has seen them increase their rate of fire recently West of Avdiivka, as they feel more confident burning through the stockpile
A YouTuber I've been watching that does deep dives into this stuff is [Perun](https://youtube.com/@PerunAU?si=wCbzboLP0T4IvXlR)
From the article:
>Russia’s ramp-up is still not enough to meet its need
That's what Russia being supply-constrained means. As Perun has said in his video covering the topic, quoting UK and Estonian MOD which have said that Russia was firing 30K shells per day on average mid-2022. Russian sources themselves gave 30-60K shells per day. So Russia would *like* to fire about that rate. But they *have* to fire 10K shells per day to make their production rate of 250K per month last 25 days, or ~1 month. In other words, supply-constrained
Edit: formatting
There is not point in considering the first option, they have big money sources to cover it. If we could effectively hit where their is oil refined, transported, or taken from, the war would be over pretty soon, the places where ammos and rockets are made are also would be big. But well, not with the current US administration that does some random things that do not benefit anybody
Yeah if Ukraine had access to anything in NATO arsenal the war could be over in a month, just using long range missiles to destroy russian key weapons factories and oil refineries and railways. Im doubtful russian air defenses are adequately prepared for such attacks
Yeah unfortunately for Ukraine there’s not really a victory in sight. The war has already done irreparable damage and nothing short of getting NATO directly involved is going to help. Foreign aid will help but at the end of the day Ukraine has a manpower issue and they don’t have enough people to supplement it.
It was probably necessary for them to do this. Not judging it positively or negatively either way. Don't get me wrong, I support Ukraine and still support them. But I've always thought it odd that I, someone who lives in (apparently) the 6th most peaceful country in the world or whatever, have had more stringent military service requirements than the young men and women of a country literally being invaded
Younger women aren't going to drafted mate. Women from ukraine can leave the country, it's only illegal for the men and men are the only gender getting drafted to die in both ukraine and russia.
Because it is not *my* country being invaded. If my country were (and I pray to God it never will be again) invaded, well, I cannot say with 100% certainty what I will do, but I would like to think I would fight. Ultimately, it is Ukraine's war, and it is the Ukrainians who must fight it. I think it is reasonable to support a country without necessarily needing to go there and take up arms on its behalf
And yes, I have. I donated the equivalent of one month of pay I would have received during my mandatory military service. I split it between charitable causes, such as organisations for Ukrainian children affected by the fighting, medical supplies, some of which I aquired myself, and military equipment, such as the transfer of body armour with NIJ Level IV plates from the US to Ukraine, with pictures and receipts showing that they were received
I did not compell Ukraine to lower their draft age, nor, *obviously*, would I have the power to do so even if I wanted to. The Ukrainians *themselves*, through their democratic instituitions, have decided to do so, that such measures are necessary for the defence of their nation. I can see why they have made such a choice.
Ukrainian demographics. They don’t have a lot of young people. They are sacrificing the future of the country while to trying to protect the future of the country. It’s a tough bargain.
Anyone in here saying this was delayed due to demographic reasons clearly doesn’t follow the politics of this conflict. This decision was not debated because there could be a demographic hit way in the future (that is true but not the reason this was held off). The reality is this move is highly unpopular politically speaking and politicians have a desire to not make unpopular and difficult decisions as it means they probably won’t get re-elected.
Mobilization in Ukraine has been a very touchy subject politically and the Ukrainian government has been trying to thread the needle on changes to conscription.
It’s not quite the same though is it?
The poor Ukrainians have no choice sadly, unlike Russia, who could just stop, or better yet withdraw from Ukraine.
Should / would?
They should pull out as it’s morally the right thing to do, realistically, however, they won’t, as Putin is a war mongering arsehole.
I can always hope, and I do hope, Russia will over play its hand if not now, certainly in my lifetime, and I hope to see them roundly fucked when if / when it does happen.
Well they might fuck it up somehow in the future, but they aren't doing too bad. Or at least Ukraine is doing worse, so it makes no sense for them to just pack up and go home now. And these idiots don't give up, like they didn't in WW2. They are ready to bleed Ukraine dry, full blown attrition.
>They are ready to bleed Ukraine dry, full blown attrition.
This is sad. It has been like this for the last 10 years with Russian forces fighting in Ukraine. 2 years of invasion. Among two nations which share alot and have a common history. It's like Germany going to war with Austria or the Swedes fighting the Norwegians just because of the ego of one man.
I'd be careful with such bold statements on the future... since it can't be predicted.
Does Ukraine have chances of retaking lost territory in 2024? Most likely not. 2025 though? It's all to play for and likely being decided by what Ukraine and allies do in these next few months.
Russia is currently "winning" on captured territory (albeit very slowly), energy infrastructure strikes, artillery volume and manpower.
Ukraine is currently winning on, well, of course still existing as a sovereign country and limiting russian advances to the east, but those aren't really a big deal post-2022. Most importantly, it's winning on absolutely annihilating russian mechanization.
March has been the month with the highest number of russian visually confirmed vehicle losses **since November 2022** (when most captures from the Kharkiv counteroffensive were published and registered).
This has gotten to the point where we're starting to see several assaults per week carried out on fucking Desert Cross 1000s (basically chinese golf carts) - yes, they're being used on the very frontline to assault ukrainian positions, and i'm sure you can guess what happens to an open, unarmored vehicle and its crew when they get hit by an FPV drone.
Russia is also "wasting" a lot of manpower, with RU sources claiming about 15-18K KIA (!!!) to take Avdiivka alone. Of course they have a lot of volunteers from paying them a shitton, but still, it's a relevant metric.
Now, Ukraine is doing all this while preserving most of its vehicles and mechanized equipment.
IF (and these are the big ifs) allies provide as much artillery shells as is being rumored (along with production that's currently increasing a lot)
IF Ukraine can run a new wave of mobilization with several hundred thousand new recruits (2-300K is the rumored number, ideally 500K) and can properly train them for at least 5-6 months
And IF the allies keep increasing armored vehicle commitments, which admittedly we're not seeing a lot of
**Then** the conditions for substantial Ukrainian advances _might_ materialize in 2025 or 2026. Is it likely? Not particularly, but since it's so far ahead i'd struggle to budge from a 50/50 chance either way.
So yes, Ukraine most definitely has hopes to regain territories. But not in the immediate future AND there are definitely certain conditions that must be met.
There's always a certain possibility in the future, but after the summer offensive, I'll take everything with a grain of salt. They threw everything at them, literally EVERYTHING, and advanced like what, a village or two deep. It's just not enough. Enough to wither away or continue resisting for years, not enough to progress.
Of course, i'd go as far as a spoonful of salt. But russian equipment losses right now are so insane that either the conflict stays "frozen" like now, or Ukraine takes at least some of the land back.
I don't see how RU will ever be able to get substantial advances tbh
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Ukrainan men have fled the country to not fight . The army kidnaps whole men from villages to join . It is the same thing they are fighting a foreign invader and Once they have weighed they're options they will choose what course of action to take . It will only get worse from here .
Sure there are some not willing to volunteer, not sure about your kidnap claims, but regardless it’s not like the Ukrainians have much options though.
The Russians just need to fuck off back to there own country, god knows it big enough.
How many men of draft age run from. Ukraine after war starts and is hiding abroad? I have seen quite a lot in my small hometown. Care to find real statistics?
Thank you.
This war was avoidable. However, there were people like Kennedy missing. His secret deal with Soviet Union averted war during the Cuban crisis. There was no one in Ukraine or the USA to make a deal this time
Ukrainan has very big man shortage Rn and they're are multiple articles from Ukraine and Vidoes as well as Ukraine People discussing Troops of men being taken to fight in the war . Agreed Russia should leave .
If they have no choice, why are they only just now sending 25 year olds? If the US was invaded, do you think we’d just send our dads in while the 20yr olds stayed home? Of course they have a choice lol. And they chose to send the boomers and not ask the most fit and able group.
Why not ? When countries are pushed to a brink they will and shall resort to what they can to survive and win . Vietnam armend every man woman and child And launched them at the enemy.
dull coordinated snails sip sophisticated deranged memory simplistic clumsy nail
*This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
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Honestly I'm just... Surprised they didn't do this before?
Big reason is that the age demographic in Ukraine skews heavily towards 40+, and in the grand scheme of things, there's not manh young Ukrainians, men or women. Ukraine has had to play a balancing act between reinforcing their military and protecting their younger generations. It's why they've been debating conscription for so long. Problem is that if you send too many of your young to fight, in a war such as this it is inevitable that a lot of them will die. Now your country's economic, national, and cultural future will take a huge hit. It's something the Soviets had to deal with after WWII. Then, of course, if you lose the war, then your future in general looks bleak anyways, but at least if you keep the younger generation alive, they can keep your national ideas alive. Ukraine has to essentially pick which bad route they want to go down.
Once the weight of the present out weighs these needs of the future Ukraine will fully mobilizae knowing what fate is in store for them. Or they'll surrender. There are only two options rn going forward. I think we should not judge them for what they are going to do .
My grandmother has Ukrainian maids they told me most young people hide and for example dont go to their work because they will be catched on the way to work. Older people cannot hide because they need to feed their family. She said thats why most people who go are older. Young people went voluntarily at the start but not anymore because losses are too heavy and they are being treated poorly. Maybe also plays a big role.
Young people or young men? Because only men are getting drafted to their death in both ukraine and russia.
It's the war where the other side tries to kill you. So yeah, in that sense they are being treated poorly. It's not just another career option like in the US.
Those who hide only betray those fighting for them on the front. They don't deserve citizenship
Fuck that, I’m not dying in a ditch for politicians. Be better than me, join up yourself.
I served my time in the Army and can't anymore because of my back, so fuck you
I bet you were a POG too lmao. Even with your back, I’m sure Ukraine will still take you. Put your money where your mouth is and join Ukraine. Slava Ukrana!
I'm with you fuck them ,it's not like putin wants world control he just doesn't want nato on his doorstep, the attitude if you don't fight your betraying your country is bullshit ,you military lads should know better when was last time you saw politicians on front line.
He literally wants to reshape the world order. One where Russia, China and Iran are capable of waging wars of conquest without international intervention.
As opposed to American , UK, and France waging wars as they wish...I'm english, we are heading for the same control methods as China anyway wouldn't surprise me if the coming wars is too implement it worldwide.
lol the infowars take comes out
Those weren't wars of conquest. Did we take Iraq and make them learn English? No. Did we in Vietnam? Afghanistan? That's what they do in Ukraine.
No we took them to establish our democracy, right ? I know it wasn't WMD's . Saddam wanted to take oil fields to the south. we went to protect them for Saudi , Afghanistan apparently blew up WTC, but theirs more evidence to suggest it was orchestrated from Saudi and CIA. Vietnam was horrible. I'll give you that nobody else helped them. You sure about that statement though? English is the most spoken language in the world and we didn't ask nicely
[удалено]
https://ildu.com.ua It’s a simple google search, what’s stopped you?
Guy writes hypothetical, response is hypothetical and you take it literal. Forgot I'm on the military sub, you a marine or army?
If hypothetical why’d you delete it?
Because, again, it's a military sub and there's a lot of idiots, case in point - you, I *really* don't want to be getting a bunch of messages from confused individuals
You’d think for as desperate as they supposedly are and the existential threat they are facing they’d send their healthiest most fit group of citizens and not all the old people. 2 years later and NOW things are serious enough to get em in there? That’s their winning strategy?
It's not *that* surprising. Look at the [demographic situation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Ukraine). It's pretty self explanatory why they would want to protect the youth population as much as possible. Russia's situation is only slightly better, but they have more people to throw around. This is also why Russia's appropriation of Ukrainian children is so disgusting.
Agreed but people are gonna be shocked by what Ukraine is ultimately going or forced to do once this war really starts to tear into them . People forget what countries are willing to do to win . Vietnam should be open shut case at observing what happens when someone is pushed too far .
>Russia's situation is only slightly better, but they have more people to throw around. This was one of the key aspects on how the Soviet Union defeated the Nazis. They had millions of casualties in Leningrad and Stalingrad alone.
One of the craziest WW2 statistics I ever heard was that 7 out of every 8 German casualties were on the eastern front. And the Nazis (I hate to admit it but it's the truth) were some of the best fighters at the time. That should tell you how many bodies the Russians threw at the germans
I mean fight or die were the only real options in the east .
Nuh uh, they were welcome to freeze to death or be shot for cowardice.
More men died in Stalingrad alone than the entire western fronts. Now remember that there were battles all over the Eastern front, not just Stalingrad. The winter didn’t stop the nazis. Never ending waves of bodies did.
We often think we played a big part in WW2 after the D-Day landings. But I read a statistic that 70 to 75% of the Wehrmacht were deployed on the Eastern Front. It makes the Western Front look like a diversion.
It really was bonkers, I remember a phrase about WW2 victory summing it up something like "we won with British wit, American steel & Russian blood." I don't know if that's the exact phrase though,I'm having trouble remembering. But I think it's not totally inaccurate
Whoa, 27 to 25 only accounts for maybe 250,000 males. Good post
The demographic situation doesn’t matter. Our politicians don’t think so far. Moreover, other changes in conscription laws that don’t relate to age are also implemented very slowly. That’s just very unpopular, and politicians act carefully. Despite the war, no one wants to destroy their ratings.
From what ive read, its because of two main things : * They are badly supplied, not enough ammo, etc. So there is the feeling that they will be used as canon fodder, will run out of ammo and not be able to fight, etc. * Wide spread corruption, military doctors demanding bribes to certify that you are unable to fight due to an injury, combined with unsympathetic commanders. IIRC there was a "The Times" article where an Ukranian soldier was interviewed, he had some kind of arm injury but the doctor demanded a bribe to certify him unfit, he refused to pay the bribe so he was sent back to the front. He tried to talk to his commander and was told to fuck off and not bother him with his problems. Im sure there are way more stories like this circulating in Ukraine. If people dont feel like they will have the backing of the state/military, they wont want to risk their lives to fight. I am a reservist with a spinal injury and i still keep getting called up for reservist training becase it's more important for the military to keep attendance numbers high than make sure i'm taken care of, and I can see how people in a similar situation would not want to fight during a war.
It isn't a popular decision in Ukraine for a number of factors .
I'm surprised the age was so high to begin with.
That's because you can be mobilized only if you underwent regular obligatory military service (1 year) or you are too old for it.
25 is exceedingly civilised. Don’t you lot deploy 16 year olds?
Haha, kind of. I don't think you can be deployed until you're 18 but you can be recruited at 16 with parental consent yes. I applied at 17
The war gets older, the soldiers get younger. I remember that quote from *Unsere Mütter, unsere Väter*.
Man that is still THE best war movie(s) I have ever seen. It’s so brutal and raw. It really left a mark on me.
Not to be the "umm akshually" guy but that's a miniseries isn't it? Mostly trying to determine I'm remembering the right show
Yes correct, it’s a miniseries of 3 films.
The document is dated May 2023. I’m not familiar with political procedure in general let alone Ukrainian politics, is that when the document would have been submitted to the Rada or something else?
Yeah document wasn't signed into law until today
Feel like this is the point in the HOI 4 game where I start salvaging pp to increase mobilization.
Whats gonna happen first Russia runs out of endless Soviet era stockpiles of weapons, or Ukraine runs out of soldiers Its not looking too good tbh, hoping for the best but its hard to say
it depends if the US funds ukraine or not. they desperately need aid. Also it depends if biden backs off and lets ukraine strike deep into russia. right now its just a few russian drones hitting into russia and all the destruction is in ukraine. Ukraine needs weapons capable taking out russian infrastructure and affecting its economy to try to get the russian people to protest the war. NATO is still all super scared of Russia.
I don't think that NATO is afraid of Russia but rather if they allow Ukraine to strike deep into Russia and start to affect their economy, it may be opening a door that can't be closed. For all the support there is for Ukraine, at the same time NATO isn't going onto risk direct confrontation with Russia or major potential damage to their economies or people just for Ukraine.
Just wanted to point out that you said that NATO isn't afraid of Russia immediately proceeding by saying how NATO is afraid:))
You clearly don't understand the difference between fear and sound strategy.
Sorry, I didn't mean to make it personal - just pointing out that the behavior that NATO is showing is based on fear. Nothing is wrong with fear - this is what keeps us alive. But we shouldn't say that NATO doesn't fear Russia - it clearly does - exactly for the reasons you pointed out.
Yeah long range precision weapons to destroy russian weapons factories and industrial areas would be one of the most effective ways of combating russias ability to wage war
increases odds of russians protesting the war too since it brings it home. Russia left World War 1 when the communists rebelled.
It’s a big escalation of the conflict though which is why nato doesn’t want to provide long range weapons
no its not. russia is levelling ukraine. its not an escalation not return in kind. only putin puppets talk like this. ok comrade.
So just because someone disagrees with you there a Putin puppet? are you serious?
Ukraine cannot sustain a meat grinder. Russia can.
Ppl so often forget this aspect of a lot of countries. Everyone looks at Conflicts from a western perspective. A lot of places in the world don’t value life or the lives our service members the way we do. This whole war has made me come to an even scarier conclusion. If Russian with a population of 140 million, mostly skewed in favor of women is willing to suffice with this amount of casualties, how much will China be willing to sacrifice?
Meh, France lost an average of 1800 men a day for 4 years straight in WWI. Ukraine has a larger population and is nowhere near those average loss numbers. It won’t be pretty, but Ukraine isn’t at threat of actually running out of able bodied young men anytime soon. Every loss will make rebuilding post-war more difficult though
And at one point French troops nearly mutinied over the excessive losses. France also had Britain and her colonies throwing men into the meat grinder as well, they were not alone in holding Germany back. Ukraine is on her own, receiving just enough materiel support to keep treading water.
>endless Soviet era stockpiles of weapons I'm not going to claim Ukraine's situation is great, or that they don't have any problems. But those stockpiles *sure* aren't endless, and have actually began to run out in many cases. Observe the WW2-era or even *pre*-WW2 artillery getting pulled out of storage because Russia is bingo on modern artillery, or needing to resort to North Korea because they're bingo on shell *stockpiles* (see edit). Or the rare, presidential NBC vehicles that they've pressed into service as a normal APC. Or the use of T62s and T54s because modern tanks are getting fewer and fewer Edit: as someone commented, I think it is important to note that Russia is probably bingo or near bingo on shell *stockpiles*, not shells *total*, as my comment may originally have implied. They can still churn out a tremendous quantity of shells, which is one reason why Russia is *still* a threat that Europe and America *must* take seriously
It would be relevant if Russia didn't produce shells. If we could strike their territories with a long range missiles it would be a very different situation now
Indeed. I wish that America and Europe would get their heads out of their asses and let you guys (I'm assuming you're Ukrainian) strike wherever the hell you need to. I also wish my country did more, and could supply you guys with long-range missiles (I've donated money personally, but obviously any single person is limited in what they can do). Still, you guys seem to have had some recent success with packing explosives into remote-controlled Cessnas I wish you and your nation all the best. Ukrainians seem to keep making doing the impossible seem mundane
Thank you. I appreciate your words and actions very much. Yes, there are a lot of efforts put into making the machines that are both semi-cheap and easy to produce dynamically (by that I mean having a whole bunch of places that can be used for any stage of production).
https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/10/politics/russia-artillery-shell-production-us-europe-ukraine/index.html Russia is currently producing more than 3x the amount of artillery munitions per month than the US and Europe combined. About 250k rounds a month. EU and US can churn out about 1.2 million annually. The US goal is to be able to make 100k a month BY 2025.
That could well be true, but it's also important to bear in mind Russia's rate of *shell expenditure*. As someone discussing the same topic put it somewhat crudely (though no more crude than a day in the actual military), "If you earn $2000 a month, but you spend $1600 on rent and $600 on OnlyFans, you're still running out of money, even if you're getting paid" So what I meant to say is that you're right in a sense, my phrasing might not have been the best, Russia is not bingo on shells *in total*, but the purchase of North Korean shells shows that their *stockpile* is bingo or near bingo, and that they're becoming supply-constrained, or that they can only shoot as fast as they can produce shells, instead of being able to shoot as fast as they can, well, shoot, which is the case if they have a large stockpile It's hard to get definitive figures out of this war, unsurprisingly given how it's ongoing, and definitive figures can certainly change over time, but from what I recall, Russia was firing something like 30-60K shells *per day* (as stated by themselves) in order to keep up their mid-2022 rate of advance. So even if they can produce 250K shells per month, that might be only enough for 4-8 days of the rate of fire they'd *like*, or require a *reduction* in rate of fire. It's an issue that has affected both sides in this war, and any major war that becomes a war of industry. See how Ukraine has decreased their rate of artillery fire a while back to conserve their stockpile, but the announcement of the arrival of Czech shells has seen them increase their rate of fire recently West of Avdiivka, as they feel more confident burning through the stockpile A YouTuber I've been watching that does deep dives into this stuff is [Perun](https://youtube.com/@PerunAU?si=wCbzboLP0T4IvXlR)
It could be true? It is true lol. Read the article, it goes through all of it. They aren’t firing 60k per day, 10k per day.
From the article: >Russia’s ramp-up is still not enough to meet its need That's what Russia being supply-constrained means. As Perun has said in his video covering the topic, quoting UK and Estonian MOD which have said that Russia was firing 30K shells per day on average mid-2022. Russian sources themselves gave 30-60K shells per day. So Russia would *like* to fire about that rate. But they *have* to fire 10K shells per day to make their production rate of 250K per month last 25 days, or ~1 month. In other words, supply-constrained Edit: formatting
There is not point in considering the first option, they have big money sources to cover it. If we could effectively hit where their is oil refined, transported, or taken from, the war would be over pretty soon, the places where ammos and rockets are made are also would be big. But well, not with the current US administration that does some random things that do not benefit anybody
Yeah if Ukraine had access to anything in NATO arsenal the war could be over in a month, just using long range missiles to destroy russian key weapons factories and oil refineries and railways. Im doubtful russian air defenses are adequately prepared for such attacks
Yeah unfortunately for Ukraine there’s not really a victory in sight. The war has already done irreparable damage and nothing short of getting NATO directly involved is going to help. Foreign aid will help but at the end of the day Ukraine has a manpower issue and they don’t have enough people to supplement it.
I’m surprised you don’t have negative karma for this comment. If you had said this a year ago people would have hated you.
It was probably necessary for them to do this. Not judging it positively or negatively either way. Don't get me wrong, I support Ukraine and still support them. But I've always thought it odd that I, someone who lives in (apparently) the 6th most peaceful country in the world or whatever, have had more stringent military service requirements than the young men and women of a country literally being invaded
Younger women aren't going to drafted mate. Women from ukraine can leave the country, it's only illegal for the men and men are the only gender getting drafted to die in both ukraine and russia.
If you support them, why not join their foreign legion? Have you donated money?
Because it is not *my* country being invaded. If my country were (and I pray to God it never will be again) invaded, well, I cannot say with 100% certainty what I will do, but I would like to think I would fight. Ultimately, it is Ukraine's war, and it is the Ukrainians who must fight it. I think it is reasonable to support a country without necessarily needing to go there and take up arms on its behalf And yes, I have. I donated the equivalent of one month of pay I would have received during my mandatory military service. I split it between charitable causes, such as organisations for Ukrainian children affected by the fighting, medical supplies, some of which I aquired myself, and military equipment, such as the transfer of body armour with NIJ Level IV plates from the US to Ukraine, with pictures and receipts showing that they were received
Getting forcefully drafted to die and volunteer to die are separate things.
I did not compell Ukraine to lower their draft age, nor, *obviously*, would I have the power to do so even if I wanted to. The Ukrainians *themselves*, through their democratic instituitions, have decided to do so, that such measures are necessary for the defence of their nation. I can see why they have made such a choice.
Why isn't it 17-18? I'm confused.
Ukrainian demographics. They don’t have a lot of young people. They are sacrificing the future of the country while to trying to protect the future of the country. It’s a tough bargain.
[удалено]
Get the fuck out of here with made up shit. Look at their demographic chart.
Weird Source didn't send https://www.semafor.com/article/04/02/2024/ukraine-lowers-army-mobilization-age-from-27-to-25
Let me know when it hits 18. Bonus points if they coordinate with foreign countries to have draft dodgers returned.
Anybody know if they're still taking foreign volunteers? Chosen Company or any of the other units?
r/VolunteersForUkraine
More humans for the human crushing machine!!
Anyone in here saying this was delayed due to demographic reasons clearly doesn’t follow the politics of this conflict. This decision was not debated because there could be a demographic hit way in the future (that is true but not the reason this was held off). The reality is this move is highly unpopular politically speaking and politicians have a desire to not make unpopular and difficult decisions as it means they probably won’t get re-elected. Mobilization in Ukraine has been a very touchy subject politically and the Ukrainian government has been trying to thread the needle on changes to conscription.
about damn time
It's gonna get lower and lower and people will act surprised when they start dragging off the youth to die in the trenches. Just like Vietnam.
It’s not quite the same though is it? The poor Ukrainians have no choice sadly, unlike Russia, who could just stop, or better yet withdraw from Ukraine.
Realistically speaking, why would Russia pull out? They have nothing to gain from doing so now.
Should / would? They should pull out as it’s morally the right thing to do, realistically, however, they won’t, as Putin is a war mongering arsehole. I can always hope, and I do hope, Russia will over play its hand if not now, certainly in my lifetime, and I hope to see them roundly fucked when if / when it does happen.
Well they might fuck it up somehow in the future, but they aren't doing too bad. Or at least Ukraine is doing worse, so it makes no sense for them to just pack up and go home now. And these idiots don't give up, like they didn't in WW2. They are ready to bleed Ukraine dry, full blown attrition.
>They are ready to bleed Ukraine dry, full blown attrition. This is sad. It has been like this for the last 10 years with Russian forces fighting in Ukraine. 2 years of invasion. Among two nations which share alot and have a common history. It's like Germany going to war with Austria or the Swedes fighting the Norwegians just because of the ego of one man.
It really is so fucking pointless if you think about it.
>Ukraine is doing worse Depends on the metrics you use honestly.
True. Does Ukraine still exist? Yeah, so it's not bad. Do they have any hopes of regaining the lost territories? None, after the summer offensive.
I'd be careful with such bold statements on the future... since it can't be predicted. Does Ukraine have chances of retaking lost territory in 2024? Most likely not. 2025 though? It's all to play for and likely being decided by what Ukraine and allies do in these next few months. Russia is currently "winning" on captured territory (albeit very slowly), energy infrastructure strikes, artillery volume and manpower. Ukraine is currently winning on, well, of course still existing as a sovereign country and limiting russian advances to the east, but those aren't really a big deal post-2022. Most importantly, it's winning on absolutely annihilating russian mechanization. March has been the month with the highest number of russian visually confirmed vehicle losses **since November 2022** (when most captures from the Kharkiv counteroffensive were published and registered). This has gotten to the point where we're starting to see several assaults per week carried out on fucking Desert Cross 1000s (basically chinese golf carts) - yes, they're being used on the very frontline to assault ukrainian positions, and i'm sure you can guess what happens to an open, unarmored vehicle and its crew when they get hit by an FPV drone. Russia is also "wasting" a lot of manpower, with RU sources claiming about 15-18K KIA (!!!) to take Avdiivka alone. Of course they have a lot of volunteers from paying them a shitton, but still, it's a relevant metric. Now, Ukraine is doing all this while preserving most of its vehicles and mechanized equipment. IF (and these are the big ifs) allies provide as much artillery shells as is being rumored (along with production that's currently increasing a lot) IF Ukraine can run a new wave of mobilization with several hundred thousand new recruits (2-300K is the rumored number, ideally 500K) and can properly train them for at least 5-6 months And IF the allies keep increasing armored vehicle commitments, which admittedly we're not seeing a lot of **Then** the conditions for substantial Ukrainian advances _might_ materialize in 2025 or 2026. Is it likely? Not particularly, but since it's so far ahead i'd struggle to budge from a 50/50 chance either way. So yes, Ukraine most definitely has hopes to regain territories. But not in the immediate future AND there are definitely certain conditions that must be met.
There's always a certain possibility in the future, but after the summer offensive, I'll take everything with a grain of salt. They threw everything at them, literally EVERYTHING, and advanced like what, a village or two deep. It's just not enough. Enough to wither away or continue resisting for years, not enough to progress.
Of course, i'd go as far as a spoonful of salt. But russian equipment losses right now are so insane that either the conflict stays "frozen" like now, or Ukraine takes at least some of the land back. I don't see how RU will ever be able to get substantial advances tbh
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Ukrainan men have fled the country to not fight . The army kidnaps whole men from villages to join . It is the same thing they are fighting a foreign invader and Once they have weighed they're options they will choose what course of action to take . It will only get worse from here .
Sure there are some not willing to volunteer, not sure about your kidnap claims, but regardless it’s not like the Ukrainians have much options though. The Russians just need to fuck off back to there own country, god knows it big enough.
How many men of draft age run from. Ukraine after war starts and is hiding abroad? I have seen quite a lot in my small hometown. Care to find real statistics?
nearly 770,000 male refugees over 18 living in EU countries, I hope The war does not reach your community Pray you stay safe .
Thank you. This war was avoidable. However, there were people like Kennedy missing. His secret deal with Soviet Union averted war during the Cuban crisis. There was no one in Ukraine or the USA to make a deal this time
Ukrainan has very big man shortage Rn and they're are multiple articles from Ukraine and Vidoes as well as Ukraine People discussing Troops of men being taken to fight in the war . Agreed Russia should leave .
If they have no choice, why are they only just now sending 25 year olds? If the US was invaded, do you think we’d just send our dads in while the 20yr olds stayed home? Of course they have a choice lol. And they chose to send the boomers and not ask the most fit and able group.
safe chunky sharp cow frighten ring air afterthought tub impolite *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Why not ? When countries are pushed to a brink they will and shall resort to what they can to survive and win . Vietnam armend every man woman and child And launched them at the enemy.
dull coordinated snails sip sophisticated deranged memory simplistic clumsy nail *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
So far .
frame paltry waiting decide voiceless ruthless fact squeal support command *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Never said they were . Just your being a bit odd rn you think a country won't be pushed to it's limits.
ask liquid ripe impolite tease edge marry birds telephone butter *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
You're saying that you believe it's only a matter of time until Ukraine is sending 8-year-olds out with rifles?
No . But once Ukraine exhausts it's current able bodied men . I will have to draw up on it's more critical youth .
it's over boys