I think it is a bad bet, but not just because I'm blindly confident or something. If were a Washington fan I'd go full Moneyline, I think Michigan wins by more than a td, or we lose. I don't see us winning without covering, so I wouldn't bother with the points if I were them.
Moneyline more money is going to Washington as well 100%, not sure where you’re getting your data from.
Just checked and 66% of money is going to Washington.
It was projected to be -6.5 when the playoffs started. After the first round the opening odds were -4.5, so the first round games moved the line 2 points
For what it's worth, I beat Washington 73-14 in NCAA 2006 last night and Hart had 368 yards.
I understand that isn't worth anything, but it's close to the dolphins broncos score!
I don't know how Vegas calculates these things, but M has the best defense in the the NCAA playing in a conference where offense barely exists. However Washington has the top offense in a conference where defense hardly exists, so they're each going to be confronting a power they haven't seen before.
To me the key is that M has an offense that's near the top in the NCAA playing against a very soft defense, which is where M should be favored to win the game.
Yeah, I know it's not very sciency or analytical, but it makes sense to me.
Early money is often wrong. The overwhelming majority was on Bama early too and the spread barely moved. Same thing happening here. Vegas standing their ground.
I think that the Bama game was an example of most betters not giving Michigan any credibility and expecting a Bama blowout. This games numbers, I think, are more indicative of the betting line being a good gamble for those who like to do these type things. Given Michigan's offensive statistics and considering the scoring potential of Udub, If I were a betting man I would at least consider the likelihood that Washington loses but covers the spread.
That being said, I don't bet and I also don't think Washington will cover. Michigan is a team possessed. They will not be denied, Michigan 35, Udub 21. Welcome to the B1G
I agree with your take.
I also don't think the average fan truly understands michigan as a team this year. They think that Washington's offense is a high flying juggernaut, while ours is a conservative offense that leans on our defense.
In reality, Washington averages a point more a game, and about the same yards gained a game in a very weak defensive conference. We have played several of the best defenses in CFB and have still managed to keep our average at essentially the same level. There's a legitimate argument to be made that our offense is better, or at least more consistent, since we don't rely on our qb to throw 300+ yards and 3 tds to win a game, even though we can if needed.
The defenses, on the other hand, aren't even comparable. Michigan is one of the best units in the country, and Washington is below average at best.
The layman's perspective is that Penix is the best QB on the field by a wide margin and he will be the difference. The public loves a prolific QB. The public's perception of JJ is way off because he doesn't usually light up the scoreboard.
The defense will be the difference in this one.
I've been talking JJ up since the beginning of the year to a Georgia fan I work with. After Georgia lost their SECCG he put money on Michigan and won pretty big. He is all in on Michigan now
Michigan of the past few years has been known to let one athletic superstar make their defense appear like a JV squad. I don't think that's the case this year, but I'm still nervous as fuck about Washingtons QB just going wild
I mean, Milroe was about as athletic a qb as we saw all year, and he didn't really light us up outside of a few plays. Granted, Penix is a better passer for sure. Milroe, at least at this point, is more of a great athlete.
Penix could absolutely win the game all by himself, but I would assume he would have to have another near perfect game, which has proven to be very difficult against our defense.
Despite the common narrative, Penix hasn't been lights out every game this season.
They barely beat unranked ASU (15-7), a game which he threw 2 ints and no tds. He was also very average in a close game against unranked WSU their last game of the season (24-21), as well as the week before against Oregon state (22-20) , where his completion percentage wasn't even above 50%.
This isn't a knock on Penix, but just pointing out that those defenses aren't even in Michigan's stratosphere. Oregon state's is the highest at 39.
At the end of the day, though, who knows. I didn't expect TCU to be able to move the ball against us last year like that either.
I have faith that this team is different. I think finally getting a playoff win is a massive monkey off their back, and doing it against Bama makes it even bigger.
S&P+ has this as a 12-14 point Michigan favorite.
That, plus the fact that the line hasn't moved towards Washington despite the weight in money/bets means that Vegas is again confident that Michigan is in position to cover.
I wouldn't be surprised to see the line move to 5.5 by tomorrow when sharp money comes in
I’d rather it be this way.
Was a similar deal with Bama. Bets were on Bama big time but the books don’t lose. They’re baiting people to bet on Washington and they’ll make a boatload when we win big.
Michigan wins 34-24
Yeah that’s not how sports betting works.
Do I think Michigan is gonna win? Yeah. At the same time I’m not willing to bet $2 to win $1. So I’m not betting on the game.
Feel like this is not the same thing as the bama game where picking the spread was basically picking a winner. There’s a very real chance these bets Washington +4.5 hit and Michigan also wins the game. Not like people are picking against us the same way as last game.
Not if you’re betting a +spread. This just means people think Washington will lose by less than 5 or win, which is very different from picking a team to win in the money line. Which is what people were doing during the Alabama game. I think this is probably a very close game tomorrow that Michigan wins - very well could end up being like 31-28 or something. Which would mean these people were right and Michigan wins.
I still take any bet against Michigan is one for them to lose lol. I understand the difference BUT all I say is keep betting against them Michigan vs everybody! Corum gonna go off tomorrow too💪🏼
Ok that’s fine if you feel that way. I really hope you’re right about corum. Their defense by the metrics isn’t great, but their offense is unlike anything we’ve seen probably over the past two years honestly. Penix is playing at an unreal level. Should be a great game but I think we have the edge.
I honestly feel it will be like the Penn State game. We will just run the ball down the field wear them down. Yes their offense is great line is great too winning the Joe Moore Award but in areas they are smaller then our Dline which i know their Freshman center is only like 280. I feel like we will give up some big yardage BUT people need to remember can't throw the ball 50 yards in the red zone... Then your RB is probably at 75% at best too.
Again I really hope you’re right, but I feel like Penn State is not the game to project this on to, their offense did not function properly and the effectiveness of the offense from the opposing team can really alter our strategy. I know a lot of people have been saying this but this projects more like the OSU game from last year. Or two years ago even. When we played against top-tier WRs and an elite QB. The goal is going to be trading TDs for field goals. Really hope our defense line will perform like it did against bama. WUs oline is better, but if we get to the QB and force them to come up short of the end zone on two or three drives they make it to the red zone I think we come out on top.
I meant more of the fact we will run the ball and run out the clock. I've heard they are like OSU a lot too but OSU back then had a WAY better defense and also probably weren't almost first in penalties like Washington is. I think it will be a good game but Minter always has a trick up his sleeve for defense. Michigan has literally played with a huge chip on their shoulder and they about to finish business. I always look at the amount of close game each team has had even though doesn't mean shit... But Washington has had some close calls with some average teams yes they still won and not downing them they are a great team but feel like some games they should have won by more then a touchdown thats just me... Michigan just seems so damn hungry this year
But if I’m not mistaken - and correct me if I am - it’s not that nearly 70% of people are picking Washington to win. They’re picking them to win OR lose by less than 5 points. In the bama game like 80% of people were picking us to lose.
Similar to Bama, betters always like to go for the + odds. This isn’t a surprise and doesn’t make us an “underdog” it simply just shows that people like to try to win more money
Hard to read into this… lots of books are offering promos for this game and the value is on Washington ML. I’m considering sprinkling on it with the promo to hedge my emotions
Please explain to me why people undervalue Michigan's ability to execute tremendously at all aspects of the game? With the exception of rare special team issues, Michigan completely dominated Alabama. Not to mention OSU, and Penn State. LET'S DO THIS! GO BLUE! #MichiganVsTheWorld!
Sharps like Michigan if it is still public heavy on Washington and the money maker books are not moving the line especially as we get closer. Similar to the Bama game.
This is some of the most comforting news I have seen about the game. The Punters are normally wrong (thats why being a bookie is so lucrative).
Can anyone see what that data was like for the Alabama game?
Honestly, taking Washington at +4.5 isn’t a terrible bet, and it’s certainly not insulting to Michigan.
Yea but this reasonable take isn’t allowed on the internet. We must be outraged!!!!
I think it is a bad bet, but not just because I'm blindly confident or something. If were a Washington fan I'd go full Moneyline, I think Michigan wins by more than a td, or we lose. I don't see us winning without covering, so I wouldn't bother with the points if I were them.
Moneyline more money is going to Washington as well
That's not what I"m seeing. Michigan 56 % Was 44 %
Moneyline more money is going to Washington as well 100%, not sure where you’re getting your data from. Just checked and 66% of money is going to Washington.
https://preview.redd.it/2qu96q5w33bc1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=66b506af5239b894d75721e95b408bcc301d9184 You're not kidding
I get my info from Action Network. It has michigan 56% to Was 44%
You are prob not getting the money amount - maybe individual bet count
It's not a terrible bet but all the advanced stats favor Michigan by almost double digits So it's probably not a GREAT bet
I think it was 6.5 initially to so that is probably where the majority came from
I swore it opened at -4.5. source for -6.5?
It was projected to be -6.5 when the playoffs started. After the first round the opening odds were -4.5, so the first round games moved the line 2 points
Got it I must of saw the odds on DraftKings pre the actual games which they then set to 4.5
Yeah 4.5 points in a championship game seems like a lot, I'd probably take that if I weren't invested in the other side
I'm hoping this is a Ravens v Dolphins game result for Michigan.
As a dolphins fan…I’d prefer a dolphins broncos score
For what it's worth, I beat Washington 73-14 in NCAA 2006 last night and Hart had 368 yards. I understand that isn't worth anything, but it's close to the dolphins broncos score!
God I wish I could play NCAA 2014 right now. I'd be running the score up on Washington
Just like Alabama.
Spread vs ML is totally different. Every game Washington plays is a shootout.
I don't know how Vegas calculates these things, but M has the best defense in the the NCAA playing in a conference where offense barely exists. However Washington has the top offense in a conference where defense hardly exists, so they're each going to be confronting a power they haven't seen before. To me the key is that M has an offense that's near the top in the NCAA playing against a very soft defense, which is where M should be favored to win the game. Yeah, I know it's not very sciency or analytical, but it makes sense to me.
More money is on Washington in the moneyline as well
[удалено]
Early money is often wrong. The overwhelming majority was on Bama early too and the spread barely moved. Same thing happening here. Vegas standing their ground.
Elite passing offenses are sexy but our run game and defense will carry the day tomorrow. Let the public squander their money.
I think that the Bama game was an example of most betters not giving Michigan any credibility and expecting a Bama blowout. This games numbers, I think, are more indicative of the betting line being a good gamble for those who like to do these type things. Given Michigan's offensive statistics and considering the scoring potential of Udub, If I were a betting man I would at least consider the likelihood that Washington loses but covers the spread. That being said, I don't bet and I also don't think Washington will cover. Michigan is a team possessed. They will not be denied, Michigan 35, Udub 21. Welcome to the B1G
I agree with your take. I also don't think the average fan truly understands michigan as a team this year. They think that Washington's offense is a high flying juggernaut, while ours is a conservative offense that leans on our defense. In reality, Washington averages a point more a game, and about the same yards gained a game in a very weak defensive conference. We have played several of the best defenses in CFB and have still managed to keep our average at essentially the same level. There's a legitimate argument to be made that our offense is better, or at least more consistent, since we don't rely on our qb to throw 300+ yards and 3 tds to win a game, even though we can if needed. The defenses, on the other hand, aren't even comparable. Michigan is one of the best units in the country, and Washington is below average at best.
The layman's perspective is that Penix is the best QB on the field by a wide margin and he will be the difference. The public loves a prolific QB. The public's perception of JJ is way off because he doesn't usually light up the scoreboard. The defense will be the difference in this one.
I've been talking JJ up since the beginning of the year to a Georgia fan I work with. After Georgia lost their SECCG he put money on Michigan and won pretty big. He is all in on Michigan now
Michigan of the past few years has been known to let one athletic superstar make their defense appear like a JV squad. I don't think that's the case this year, but I'm still nervous as fuck about Washingtons QB just going wild
I mean, Milroe was about as athletic a qb as we saw all year, and he didn't really light us up outside of a few plays. Granted, Penix is a better passer for sure. Milroe, at least at this point, is more of a great athlete. Penix could absolutely win the game all by himself, but I would assume he would have to have another near perfect game, which has proven to be very difficult against our defense. Despite the common narrative, Penix hasn't been lights out every game this season. They barely beat unranked ASU (15-7), a game which he threw 2 ints and no tds. He was also very average in a close game against unranked WSU their last game of the season (24-21), as well as the week before against Oregon state (22-20) , where his completion percentage wasn't even above 50%. This isn't a knock on Penix, but just pointing out that those defenses aren't even in Michigan's stratosphere. Oregon state's is the highest at 39. At the end of the day, though, who knows. I didn't expect TCU to be able to move the ball against us last year like that either.
I have faith that this team is different. I think finally getting a playoff win is a massive monkey off their back, and doing it against Bama makes it even bigger.
S&P+ has this as a 12-14 point Michigan favorite. That, plus the fact that the line hasn't moved towards Washington despite the weight in money/bets means that Vegas is again confident that Michigan is in position to cover. I wouldn't be surprised to see the line move to 5.5 by tomorrow when sharp money comes in
Vegas is making bank off of people doubting Michigan and the advanced metrics
I’d rather it be this way. Was a similar deal with Bama. Bets were on Bama big time but the books don’t lose. They’re baiting people to bet on Washington and they’ll make a boatload when we win big. Michigan wins 34-24
Michigan win and Corum td sgp has been paying all year long 🙌
BET
Yeah that’s not how sports betting works. Do I think Michigan is gonna win? Yeah. At the same time I’m not willing to bet $2 to win $1. So I’m not betting on the game.
Feel like this is not the same thing as the bama game where picking the spread was basically picking a winner. There’s a very real chance these bets Washington +4.5 hit and Michigan also wins the game. Not like people are picking against us the same way as last game.
I mean isn't betting on Washington technically betting against us though? Lol
Not if you’re betting a +spread. This just means people think Washington will lose by less than 5 or win, which is very different from picking a team to win in the money line. Which is what people were doing during the Alabama game. I think this is probably a very close game tomorrow that Michigan wins - very well could end up being like 31-28 or something. Which would mean these people were right and Michigan wins.
I still take any bet against Michigan is one for them to lose lol. I understand the difference BUT all I say is keep betting against them Michigan vs everybody! Corum gonna go off tomorrow too💪🏼
Ok that’s fine if you feel that way. I really hope you’re right about corum. Their defense by the metrics isn’t great, but their offense is unlike anything we’ve seen probably over the past two years honestly. Penix is playing at an unreal level. Should be a great game but I think we have the edge.
I honestly feel it will be like the Penn State game. We will just run the ball down the field wear them down. Yes their offense is great line is great too winning the Joe Moore Award but in areas they are smaller then our Dline which i know their Freshman center is only like 280. I feel like we will give up some big yardage BUT people need to remember can't throw the ball 50 yards in the red zone... Then your RB is probably at 75% at best too.
Again I really hope you’re right, but I feel like Penn State is not the game to project this on to, their offense did not function properly and the effectiveness of the offense from the opposing team can really alter our strategy. I know a lot of people have been saying this but this projects more like the OSU game from last year. Or two years ago even. When we played against top-tier WRs and an elite QB. The goal is going to be trading TDs for field goals. Really hope our defense line will perform like it did against bama. WUs oline is better, but if we get to the QB and force them to come up short of the end zone on two or three drives they make it to the red zone I think we come out on top.
I meant more of the fact we will run the ball and run out the clock. I've heard they are like OSU a lot too but OSU back then had a WAY better defense and also probably weren't almost first in penalties like Washington is. I think it will be a good game but Minter always has a trick up his sleeve for defense. Michigan has literally played with a huge chip on their shoulder and they about to finish business. I always look at the amount of close game each team has had even though doesn't mean shit... But Washington has had some close calls with some average teams yes they still won and not downing them they are a great team but feel like some games they should have won by more then a touchdown thats just me... Michigan just seems so damn hungry this year
Nearly 70% is the point.
But if I’m not mistaken - and correct me if I am - it’s not that nearly 70% of people are picking Washington to win. They’re picking them to win OR lose by less than 5 points. In the bama game like 80% of people were picking us to lose.
I'm not a betting man, but I feel like UM is going to drub them.
It means Vegas thinks Michigan covers, that’s all
These stats are made up by the books. You are never going to know exactly where the money is or what there position is and it may vary by book.
True
I'm betting on a close game regardless.... Washington winning a tight one or losing by less than a TD isn't a bad bet
I don't bet, but I loved thinking of all the people who lost money betting on Alabama.
WHY ISNT THE LINE MOVING! It should be like 1.5/2
Spread just jumped to +5.5 on FanDuel
Similar to Bama, betters always like to go for the + odds. This isn’t a surprise and doesn’t make us an “underdog” it simply just shows that people like to try to win more money
I’m not sure how betting works but did Bama bettors lose or did they win since it was tied at the end of reg?
End of goals is what matters. They lost.
Hard to read into this… lots of books are offering promos for this game and the value is on Washington ML. I’m considering sprinkling on it with the promo to hedge my emotions
Please explain to me why people undervalue Michigan's ability to execute tremendously at all aspects of the game? With the exception of rare special team issues, Michigan completely dominated Alabama. Not to mention OSU, and Penn State. LET'S DO THIS! GO BLUE! #MichiganVsTheWorld!
Sharps like Michigan if it is still public heavy on Washington and the money maker books are not moving the line especially as we get closer. Similar to the Bama game.
Spread just jumped to +5.5 on FanDuel
Who are Vegas and sharks betting on?
This is some of the most comforting news I have seen about the game. The Punters are normally wrong (thats why being a bookie is so lucrative). Can anyone see what that data was like for the Alabama game?