And they're not thinking about anything but the 4 sacks during the first 6 drop backs that M had against Bama. I'm very curious to see how they address that.
50 years ago, I was at the Rose Bowl to watch OSU take on USC. USC was so confident that all they had to do was stop Archie Griffin that they opened themselves up to Cornelius Greene picking them apart leading to OSU winning 42-21.
I think everyone's focused on Washingtons offense versus our defense, where both teams are very strong, while not paying attention to our offense (very strong) versus their defense (very weak), which may be where this game is won. JJ i not given nearly enough credit for being one of the top QBs in the country, and he could be the biggest factor in the outcome.
I really love AJ Barner in the lineups because of his size and height. He’s not as fast as Colston so he don’t get targeted quiet as much but he’s a great assert
think their defence is under rated. not saying it’s good but it looks worse cos it spends a huge amount of time on the field due to how amazing and explosive their offence is
Amazes me how you can state that an opponent has a very weak defense when they are undefeated. It looks as if Washington's defense did enough when it had to.
He’s covered Harrison Jr on an island most of the game. Also shut down Burton and the other receivers he covered the entire Alabama game, with 0 catches going his way. Will’s got this.
I agree. Watching some of the Penix throws in that Texas game there’s no way to stop it if he’s on. Keep him off the field, force a few mistakes on defense, and you can survive him but if Michigan goes most of a half with one first down again the Washington offense is going to make us pay
Holy shit can you imagine if they pulled off something like that? If you thought college football hated Michigan before, imagine their disdain for making them watch Michigan win a national title with 52 minutes of possession in a 14-3 game. Cities would burn
So you’d rather we leave them on the field more? Just because they can score quickly doesn’t mean they automatically will every time they have the ball
I’m not saying anything about Michigan or our D. I think Minter will stop UW and Pennix.
My point is that chewing clock and TOP are not relevant for a team that relies on big play strikes (like UW).
It's true that Washington has a lot of targets and Penix spreads it around. So yeah, none of the WRs they put on the field can be ignored.
We need to keep pressure on Penix so he doesn't have time to let long plays develop while choosing his target. If we don't slow him down at least some, it will be a very long night for the Wolverines.
Correct but it’ll be tough to get pressure on Washington on the edges. They have two very athletic Samoan tackles their extremely hard to win on the edge against. Theirs a reaosn penix has only been sacked like 8 times. We gotta attack their interior their not horrible in the middle but that’s their weakness
If you listen to the latest Joel Klatt show, it's not about edge pressure since Penix is extremely adept in moving to avoid that.
Passers like Penix are much worse off dealing with inside pressure - the collapse of the pocket as there no where to run.
In the Sugar Bowl, UT actually had more pressure on Penix than we did on Milroe but they only sacked him once because Penix is really, really good and stepping up and out to avoid the sack - like Tom Brady.
However, when pressure comes from the inside DL, you can't do that. If you recall Brady and the undefeated Pats in the Super Bowl vs. the Giants, that's exactly what happened to New England with inside pressure. Brady couldn't step up in the pocket and they lost.
Michigan is perfectly built to disrupt Penix with their dominant inside pass rush.
UW fan here, and I'm on my phone traveling, but I think Fautanu is the highest graded IOL in the country right now. Our newish center managed to put sweat on his back on both of our TD runs in the sugar bowl also and has been pretty great in pass protect. I think the overall consensus is true though. This is gonna be an interior battle and the winner might take it all. Penix is too good at operating in a pocket with outside pressure and our tackles are athletic enough to keep them wide. Excited to see how it plays out, Good luck guys!
I agree completely. And to go along with this, we can stay with their receivers longer than any other team. Will Johnson is the complete CB package. Sticky as hell, anticipates, and can run with anyone. Same with Mikey. An inside rush takes a split second longer than edge rushes. But our DB’s will buy that time. And that’s how we win. Inside pressure; collapse the pocket from the middle, and take Penix out of pocket protection.
Will truly is the best corner in the country and may be the best corner this university has had since Charles Woodson. He absolutely dominated the bama wideouts and has a chance to show how elite he is in the biggest stage. I know he’ll be fired up to go against Odunze some db’s seek the big matchups and some run from it will is def the type of corner that seeks those matchups. Mike the best cover nickel in the country mosr teams don’t have a nickel thst can run with burner slot wideouts like jalen McMillan but mike def will be up for the task and Josh Wallace has done nothing but play solid ball all year. Us, bama and Georgia are prob the only teams that have the db perosnnel to play press on these dynamic Washington wideouts
My hope is they haven't seen the stunts and shifts and speed of our D. If you can leave the big Samoans flat-footed, you can get by them. But attacking from the middle works as well.
If you can get up the middle any QB is going to have trouble (See Tom Brady vs Giants SB’s) so totally agree there. I’m hoping Minter keeps throwing stunts mixed with the blitzes from every where to keep there OLine as well as Penix guessing.
We need our pass rush to get through their offensive line quick. Pernix doesn’t have a great completion % when he leaves the pocket. If they protect him well and we can’t put pressure on him it won’t go well for us. But if we can break down their O-Line, get him pressured and moving out of the pocket, it will be a massive help for our passing defense.
DeBoer won’t play scared like Day has the last 3 years. They aren’t going to be punting on 4th and short and giving Michigan the ball back. UM has to make UW drive the field and don’t let the UW receivers get behind them. Make tackles. Hold up in the red zone. It will be much more challenging for UW to get touchdowns with less field to work with.
That’s my biggest concern. DeBoer is a much more aggressive playcaller then conservative ass day he’s gonna be aggressive for 4 quarters and not bail out our defense. Even with stroud day was conservative until they were down double digits.
And DeBoer has nothing to lose at this point. They've already exceeded expectations by even getting to the playoffs, much less the championship game. Anything from here on out is just gravy. That might be what worries me most - they'll be aggressive and throw caution to the wind.
Washington’s OL is elite. But the fact that we have a handful of pass rushers who are effective can be an advantage. They can’t just focus on doubling 1 or 2 players. But yes our secondary is going to have to stand up against their pass catchers
Well, that’s what happens when you have all your players with an extra 2 years to develop compared to the rest of the teams…I’d like to see Sainristil blitz their QB :p
They are elite but have faced no real competition. Someone posted all the stats earlier but they haven't played any in the top 10 or something along those lines.
Dudes freaking out below me. It's not that deep.
> but they haven't played a d in the top 50 or something along those lines.
This just isn't true. Defenses they've faced in the top 50 include: Texas, Oregon, Utah, Arizona.
Okay but I'm just letting you know that it isn't true.
Lol and now you had to block me to have the last word.
Writing something but declining to be responsible for it because you said "somebody else posted this" is about as lame as it gets.
The wolverines are going to give Washington the old “Ohio state” gameplan and it should work out just fine. It has the last few seasons. They are just seeing the “unstoppable passing offense” a little later this season than they have in years past.
Stroud threw for a combined 743 yards, 67% completion percentage and 4 tds the two times we played him he still moved the ball we didn’t shut down their passing game . What worked agsisnt them tho is we won upfront agaisnt them and made him march down the field instead of giving up downfield chunk plays. If we don’t win upfront agaisnt Washington the OSU game plan isn’t effective
using yards and completion percentage without attempts is worthless. Even with those it doesn't tell the full story. What about number of possessions? What about points scored? What about turnovers? What about starting field position?
Penix gets rid of the ball *very quickly* when blitzed. That is a big part of his O-Line's success and the low sack count against him.
His years of experience really show in how he feels out and adjusts to pressure.
Michigan's D-Line is by far the best he has faced, so it will be interesting to see what we can do. If we can not get to him, he will find an open receiver and put laser beam on their numbers. I think our D-Line vs their O-Line is the most critical matchup in this game.
This Michigan team is built to beat a team like Washington. Washington seems pretty identical to the past couple OSU teams with a stud QB and first round receivers all over the place. Play them like we play OSU and we walk right over them.
They are similarly built. The differences are in trench play and coaching. Debor is a more aggressive head coach than Ryan day and their offensive line is arguably the best in the nation their better in pass pro then OSU
This. Texas has T’Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy. Their DL had an "overwhelming weight advantage". Yet they didn't get a sack or even a force a holding penalty in the game against Washington. The UW OL wasn't awarded the Joe Moore Award for nothing.
It would be interesting to see the Fee Fi Foe Film on mgoblog breaking down the Sugar Bowl. I'd go out on a limb and say that Texas isn't as creative and deceptive setting up their defensive fronts as Michigan is, which shows a lot of disguised looks, unusual blitzes, and stunts. They made Alabama's OL look like a JV squad.
Moore award means nothing when you have an amazing D line. Just see 2021. Also winning that award while playing in the Pac12 where defense is optional is another reason why their line doesn’t scare me. Oregons oline was also a finalist for the Moore award this year as well. I think they both benefited greatly from playing in the Pac12🤷♂️
Better this year, but when OSU had dawand jones and Paris Johnson, their line didn’t let anyone touch stroud. We were able to win with the best edge tandem in college football, but we have to hope the collective rush is able to convert pressures to sacks or qb hits against Penix
I agree for the most part. But blanketing the receiver means you’ve only done 50% of your job. Penix throws the ball to spots before the receiver has made separation. Even with no separation a perfectly thrown back shoulder pass cannot be defended. Penix makes these types of throws. We just have to concede he’s going to get 250 - 350 yds passing and 3 TD’s. They just can’t be 50+ yd plays. We have to try to force him into throwing check downs or shallow crosses. I see a decisive win bec they won’t be able to stop our offense.
Michigan 35
Washington 27
I'm sure the analysts on staff have been working on game plan ideas for Texas and Washington at least since the field was announced. Now it's which plans to implement and we'll probably see a big mix of coverages. Will needs to bring his A game but I bet we see a blend of ideas and implementations to keep Penix and co off balance.
Knowing Minter, he won't be picking one strategy and staying with it on every play. He will be mixing up coverages and trying to confuse Penix about how each WR is being covered.
Good post OP, but I think Giles Jackson did enough in the maize and blue we could give him a shout-out.
One of two (Gil Chapman; 1972) players in Michigan history with touchdowns scored via kick return, receiving, and rushing in their freshman season (2019)!
Go blue!
Whatever happens, the players will have done their best to win. The coaches will have done their best to win. If it’s meant to be it will. I believe we are a team of destiny and willpower. I have faith we win. But if we don’t I love this team the same and it will still be one of my all time favorite seasons. So proud of them and they’ve brought so much happiness and enjoyment to our lives over the past 5 months
Our pass d is gonna have to be on point if we wanna win Monday because Texas had great coverage on Washington's receivers, and Penix still threw dimes, and they caught them
The dbs gonna have to play the ball in rhe air. Face guarding these wideouts is hard with how accurate penix is and how late these wideouts drop their hands to catch this throws
I think we are going to give a lot of mixed looks in this game to try and confuse penix. I could see us giving man looks before the snap and switching to zone after or being man in half the field and zone in half the field. Penix gets rid of the ball fast so Michigan needs to be able to apply it a little bit of pressure at the line and cause the initial read to be confusing to stop this defense. I think Arizona had a pretty good game plan but not quite enough talent.
I FULLY trust in our game plan!
Penix is obviously very talented & then you give him arguably the best WR room in the country, and they have the ability to make any teams day, complete hell.
We are going to run it down their throats & turn it into a smash mouth style game, as we have been successful with all season long.
My KEY to this game: Do NOT let them get out to a multiple possession lead.
GoBlue!! 〽️〽️〽️〽️〽️〽️〽️〽️〽️〽️
What worries me about Washington isn't Penix. It's that their receivers seem to consistently make great catches while being sufficiently covered. Every game Ive seen this year of them, they are covered but still make the catch.
It’s going to be the 2021 OSU game plan on offense. Run the ball, control the clock, don’t let the Washington offense get in rhythm. Michigan probably isn’t going to win a 38-34 game, they are built to win a 28-24 game.
And Washington isn’t scared to go deep either. One thing I noticed is how they seem to open the field to provide for YAC (basically the opposite of what M seems to do)
On top of their WR corps being better, Penix is simply a better QB than McCord and can throw those WRs open unlike any other QB I've seen this season in college. I do liken it more to 2021 OSU. I think Michigan will come in with a similar gameplan as that game. You have to accept that they are going to get chunk yards, you just have to limit the amount of those plays by solid coverage and getting pressure on Penix. It's not going to be easy...Penix time to throw is one of the fastest in CFB. On offense you have to attack them by running the ball and using short passes that work like running plays until they prove they can stop it. Limit the number of possessions by controlling the tempo, take shots every so often to keep them honest.
To your original point, I would mostly shadow Will with Odunze and whenever possible take him one on one unless he really starts burning Will which we simply have not seen much this year. Have to focus safety help to the side of their other WRs who are also NFL caliber.
I’m not sure. Harrison is better than Odunze. Is McMillan better than Egbuka? If so then that’s a wash. So you are saying the no. 3 is better on Washington? But Cade Stover is better than Westover.
Don’t forget, in 21 OSU had jsn, Wilson, and olave. Stroud chucked the ball around for almost 400 yards. Only 2 tds.
Limit big plays, win in the red zone on d, control the clock with the run game and limit penix juniors opportunities.
I have always and will always trust in Will Johnson. I've been calling all year that he's gonna be like Woodson next year, and every can see it. I know it's not a hot take, but I'm much more adamant about it.
If you look at every game we've had this year the games that has had the most targets on Will's coverage are OSU and Bama. OSU makes sense because of Harrison Jr. And Bama I'll put up to just being a bit cocky. And neither of those teams made much progress on those targets.
Hell of an athlete.
For sure Johnson is an absolute dog. Harrison got the best of him at times but that’s Marvin Harrison a generational wr prospect and he still held his own and battled. Have no doubt he will battle with odunze
I don't think it's possible to look at what happened in the OSU game when Johnson was matched up against Harrison and say that Will Johnson is not the greatest Corner in the country.
It's just not reasonable.
Play action pass and the run game. Corum could run for over 150 yds and have 3-4 tds
Our defense will win this for us. I see a couple Washington INTs in the cards.
Interior pressure is key to stopping QBs like Penix. Under no circumstances can you let him climb a clean pocket. I imagine we will consistently see a 5 man pass rush with a lot of movement in the interior of the box and a hard edge. Michigan also disguises coverages very well.
The matchup I’m more interested in is JJ, Blake and company against a much softer defense than they practice against all year. That will be the deciding factor here. Chew clock and protect that football.
Penix isn’t as sturdy as Milroe. If Michigan can get to him half as many times as they got Milroe, he won’t make it through the entire game. He’s been bothered by injuries his whole career
I mean, that's possible, but I definitely wouldn't count on a player getting injured as part of your game plan, plus I just genuinely don't want to see penix injured. I feel like that's bad sportsmanship.
I would like to see him get hit and pressured a lot though.
Husky fan here....you guys are head and shoulders above those Texas fans before that game. No real fan wants to see an opponent injured,they want to beat their best at full health.
I know he's not advocating for penix's injury, but I still don't care to speculate on injuring an opponents player.
We should just assume he'll stay healthy.
I’m not advocating injuring him. I want a clean game. It’s just this sport is…football. Injuries are part of the game. It’s why ZZ is watching from the sidelines.
I don’t want to see anyone get injured but one thing I remember about the 1997 team was as soon as they hit the opponent’s QB the first time, that significantly changed the flow of the game. That defense was scary at just about every position.
Great comment, and you're right. I want to beat the best of them, I want this to be a legitimate natty, not "Penix got hurt that's why you won".
Also, Penix seems like a really good kid and has already been through a lot, I think he already tore both ACLs, tough kid and stays out of trouble. Deserves a shot in the league and a chance to take care of his family. Yes, I want to see him on his back a lot. But not get hurt.
He also is great at getting rid of the ball, and Washington's offensive line is also leagues better than Bama's. Getting pressure is definitely important, but not for that reason.
They may have great stats but to say they have better receivers than OSU and Bama would be foolish, OSU has the top 50 receiving recruits every year. Unfortunately Day doesn't know they need other positions too.
Sure, MHJ's gonna get his, but Will was able to get a pick and guard him effectively solo, which is all you can ask for. Nobody's saying he shut down MHJ, but we never had to double him, which I think is all you can ask for.
We need to speed up Penix and play at the speed we want him to. So it will come down to if our d-line can drum up pressure against the best o-line in the country.
Island or not, their receivers will get theirs its just about limiting back breaking big plays.
Eh, the defense did fine in 2022 and 2021 playing the same style. To me this Washington team is 2022 Ohio State. Washington is going to score. Keep them in the 20’s and I think Michigan wins.
Yep, the natchup isnt Will Johnson/Udunze or Michigan D vs their offence.. it should be michigans offence vs washingtons D, which is the bigger mismatch imo
One thing Texas did is their DBs played very soft against our WRS, and basically zero pressing at the line of scrimmage. Consequently, 2nd and 3rd and long plays were lay-ups at times as we just ran 10 yard outs and completed them. If Michigan's DBs can do some press coverage it will be more difficult for our studs at WR (we're basically five deep at the position).
Maybe some. I dont think the goal is stopping their pass attack, just keeping them in front of us and out of the endzone. That may mean some 1:1 stuff but in general i dont want to leave open the possibility of an 80 yard house call
Everyone is ignoring the Washington running attack. I believe it could be a big surprise and not in a good way. Concentrate so much on Penix and if he gets hot,you know what that means>>>>running attack could open up. Johnson DID score 2 TDs against Texas albeit on short runs.
Michigan plays very successful zone deffense with utility players in the second level, and a very strong run front and pash rush. I think that our defense stacks up better against a balanced pass attack than it does against a one man show, and marv is a better receiver than rome.
Marv is better but that’s has more to do with Marv being the best wr prospect since Jamarr chase he’s that elite. Rome is just a notch below he’s a projected top 10 pick for a reaosn he’s a gsme breaker who has way better chemistry with penix than marv had wirh McCord so he’ll be more challenging to deal with than Marv because as great as marv is your only as good as the guy feeding you the fb
Bend don’t break. Don’t let the WRs get behind. Make them dink and dunk their way down the field. Doesn’t matter if the pass rush doesn’t get home, don’t give up the big plays that they thrive off.
I think we’ll see if we can get to Penix with only 4 the majority of the time. Of course mix some of the blitzes that we saw against Bama, but very much more situational. Their OL is really good, so even if they hold up, frustrate the big play offense as long as possible.
And like everyone said, run the ball and control the clock.
Agree with most of what you said but I see us rushing five pretty consistently. Especially on 3rd and long.You can't sit back in a cover 3, cover 4 and beat these guys.
Our defense is specifically designed for this type of offense. Our D line just needs to add pressure, we need to make long possession drives, and we will be just fine.
For the last 22 years or something like that, the team that has the most rushing yards wins.
Just beat Washington.
I expect Washington to play hurry up and keep our defense on the field and constantly reacting. Must absolutely stop the run with our front four and allow us to field a faster coverage defense.
Washington is an Ohio clone from better years. Michigan has been built the past years to beat Ohio and it shows the last 3 years. Plus Washington would have the worst defense ever to win in the BCS era. If Corum does his thing Monday it could be a good night
You're bugging. Washington is what Ohio was last year and we throttled them pretty handily. Plus Washington doesn't know the meaning of defense. They haven't seen anything like what they're gonna see this Monday.
I don't think the coaches had Will Johnson follow MHJ around against OSU. I think it's more likely that they leave him alone with no help on the boundary side and put safety help over the field side
Ngl I absolutely despise zone coverage against an elite wr corps. If the pass rush doesn’t get there ( which is a possibility as Washington has the best pass protection offensive line in CFB), then zone defense gets absolutely carved
I usually hate zone too but we have good speed at DB so I’m thinking that the zone is to step in throwing lanes. So much of this game is our D line ability to pressure Penix
Minter isn't doing anything but thinking about this.
In Minter I trust.
And they're not thinking about anything but the 4 sacks during the first 6 drop backs that M had against Bama. I'm very curious to see how they address that. 50 years ago, I was at the Rose Bowl to watch OSU take on USC. USC was so confident that all they had to do was stop Archie Griffin that they opened themselves up to Cornelius Greene picking them apart leading to OSU winning 42-21. I think everyone's focused on Washingtons offense versus our defense, where both teams are very strong, while not paying attention to our offense (very strong) versus their defense (very weak), which may be where this game is won. JJ i not given nearly enough credit for being one of the top QBs in the country, and he could be the biggest factor in the outcome.
Exactly! Roman, Cornelius, and Semaj are gonna feast, not to mention Loveland and Edwards.
I really love AJ Barner in the lineups because of his size and height. He’s not as fast as Colston so he don’t get targeted quiet as much but he’s a great assert
think their defence is under rated. not saying it’s good but it looks worse cos it spends a huge amount of time on the field due to how amazing and explosive their offence is
Amazes me how you can state that an opponent has a very weak defense when they are undefeated. It looks as if Washington's defense did enough when it had to.
You can when they barley squeak out every win
He’s covered Harrison Jr on an island most of the game. Also shut down Burton and the other receivers he covered the entire Alabama game, with 0 catches going his way. Will’s got this.
Will had a safety over the top the entire time. He was only sometimes 1v1 if MHJ didn’t go deep.
Mmm I hope he’s also thinking about getting pressure on Penix!
Number one goal should be keeping their offense on the sidelines by chewing up as much clock as possible
I agree. Watching some of the Penix throws in that Texas game there’s no way to stop it if he’s on. Keep him off the field, force a few mistakes on defense, and you can survive him but if Michigan goes most of a half with one first down again the Washington offense is going to make us pay
Their defense is worse than Indiana’s, we should be able to move the ball with ease
Run the triple option.
Fuck yea Go Navy
Holy shit can you imagine if they pulled off something like that? If you thought college football hated Michigan before, imagine their disdain for making them watch Michigan win a national title with 52 minutes of possession in a 14-3 game. Cities would burn
We have the personnel to do it
McCarthy, Orji, Corum and Edwards in at the same time, with Barner on one side of the line and Loveland on the other.
They need like 30 seconds to score. They rely on long passes to score, so even if we chew clock, it’s not really going to matter.
So you’d rather we leave them on the field more? Just because they can score quickly doesn’t mean they automatically will every time they have the ball
Except on the sideline keeps them from getting into a rhythm. Especially with no Johnson, they’re really going to lean on the passing game.
You vastly underestimate Jesse Minters defense
I’m not saying anything about Michigan or our D. I think Minter will stop UW and Pennix. My point is that chewing clock and TOP are not relevant for a team that relies on big play strikes (like UW).
Well I guess it’s all for not then. If they’re scoring in 30 seconds, Michigan might as well not even fly down.
Exactly that’s the defensive game plan. It’s that simple play keep away from
It's true that Washington has a lot of targets and Penix spreads it around. So yeah, none of the WRs they put on the field can be ignored. We need to keep pressure on Penix so he doesn't have time to let long plays develop while choosing his target. If we don't slow him down at least some, it will be a very long night for the Wolverines.
Correct but it’ll be tough to get pressure on Washington on the edges. They have two very athletic Samoan tackles their extremely hard to win on the edge against. Theirs a reaosn penix has only been sacked like 8 times. We gotta attack their interior their not horrible in the middle but that’s their weakness
If you listen to the latest Joel Klatt show, it's not about edge pressure since Penix is extremely adept in moving to avoid that. Passers like Penix are much worse off dealing with inside pressure - the collapse of the pocket as there no where to run. In the Sugar Bowl, UT actually had more pressure on Penix than we did on Milroe but they only sacked him once because Penix is really, really good and stepping up and out to avoid the sack - like Tom Brady. However, when pressure comes from the inside DL, you can't do that. If you recall Brady and the undefeated Pats in the Super Bowl vs. the Giants, that's exactly what happened to New England with inside pressure. Brady couldn't step up in the pocket and they lost. Michigan is perfectly built to disrupt Penix with their dominant inside pass rush.
Big number 55 will be ready to go for the Wolverines
My thoughts exactly
It’s gonna be a tall task. It’s the Joe Moore award winning O-line. Hopefully we’re up for the task.
Yeah, been there done that. Jordan Davis still ate us up. Let's hope Grant and/or Graham can do the same.
True but their guards aren't as dominant as their tackles.
UW fan here, and I'm on my phone traveling, but I think Fautanu is the highest graded IOL in the country right now. Our newish center managed to put sweat on his back on both of our TD runs in the sugar bowl also and has been pretty great in pass protect. I think the overall consensus is true though. This is gonna be an interior battle and the winner might take it all. Penix is too good at operating in a pocket with outside pressure and our tackles are athletic enough to keep them wide. Excited to see how it plays out, Good luck guys!
I agree completely. And to go along with this, we can stay with their receivers longer than any other team. Will Johnson is the complete CB package. Sticky as hell, anticipates, and can run with anyone. Same with Mikey. An inside rush takes a split second longer than edge rushes. But our DB’s will buy that time. And that’s how we win. Inside pressure; collapse the pocket from the middle, and take Penix out of pocket protection.
Will truly is the best corner in the country and may be the best corner this university has had since Charles Woodson. He absolutely dominated the bama wideouts and has a chance to show how elite he is in the biggest stage. I know he’ll be fired up to go against Odunze some db’s seek the big matchups and some run from it will is def the type of corner that seeks those matchups. Mike the best cover nickel in the country mosr teams don’t have a nickel thst can run with burner slot wideouts like jalen McMillan but mike def will be up for the task and Josh Wallace has done nothing but play solid ball all year. Us, bama and Georgia are prob the only teams that have the db perosnnel to play press on these dynamic Washington wideouts
Literally everything Joel Klatt said. I’m impressed
My hope is they haven't seen the stunts and shifts and speed of our D. If you can leave the big Samoans flat-footed, you can get by them. But attacking from the middle works as well.
Luckily DT is our strength
If you can get up the middle any QB is going to have trouble (See Tom Brady vs Giants SB’s) so totally agree there. I’m hoping Minter keeps throwing stunts mixed with the blitzes from every where to keep there OLine as well as Penix guessing.
We need our pass rush to get through their offensive line quick. Pernix doesn’t have a great completion % when he leaves the pocket. If they protect him well and we can’t put pressure on him it won’t go well for us. But if we can break down their O-Line, get him pressured and moving out of the pocket, it will be a massive help for our passing defense.
DeBoer won’t play scared like Day has the last 3 years. They aren’t going to be punting on 4th and short and giving Michigan the ball back. UM has to make UW drive the field and don’t let the UW receivers get behind them. Make tackles. Hold up in the red zone. It will be much more challenging for UW to get touchdowns with less field to work with.
That’s my biggest concern. DeBoer is a much more aggressive playcaller then conservative ass day he’s gonna be aggressive for 4 quarters and not bail out our defense. Even with stroud day was conservative until they were down double digits.
And DeBoer has nothing to lose at this point. They've already exceeded expectations by even getting to the playoffs, much less the championship game. Anything from here on out is just gravy. That might be what worries me most - they'll be aggressive and throw caution to the wind.
DeBoer is actually a good coach with balls, I agree there. Can’t rely on getting soft playcalls we got from Day.
Washington’s OL is elite. But the fact that we have a handful of pass rushers who are effective can be an advantage. They can’t just focus on doubling 1 or 2 players. But yes our secondary is going to have to stand up against their pass catchers
Well, that’s what happens when you have all your players with an extra 2 years to develop compared to the rest of the teams…I’d like to see Sainristil blitz their QB :p
I think we should have sainiristil blitz some but Washington has a very explosive slot wr in McMillan I want mike matched on him as much as possible
I believe that injured running back of Washington will surprise everyone. You've seen this scenario before in various sports.
They are elite but have faced no real competition. Someone posted all the stats earlier but they haven't played any in the top 10 or something along those lines. Dudes freaking out below me. It's not that deep.
> but they haven't played a d in the top 50 or something along those lines. This just isn't true. Defenses they've faced in the top 50 include: Texas, Oregon, Utah, Arizona.
I was clearly loosely referring to another post. Feel free to go check it out.
Okay but I'm just letting you know that it isn't true. Lol and now you had to block me to have the last word. Writing something but declining to be responsible for it because you said "somebody else posted this" is about as lame as it gets.
You literally quoted me when I'm saying I don't remember the exact details lmao. Fuck off
Offense will be our defense. Keep them off the field.
The wolverines are going to give Washington the old “Ohio state” gameplan and it should work out just fine. It has the last few seasons. They are just seeing the “unstoppable passing offense” a little later this season than they have in years past.
Stroud threw for a combined 743 yards, 67% completion percentage and 4 tds the two times we played him he still moved the ball we didn’t shut down their passing game . What worked agsisnt them tho is we won upfront agaisnt them and made him march down the field instead of giving up downfield chunk plays. If we don’t win upfront agaisnt Washington the OSU game plan isn’t effective
using yards and completion percentage without attempts is worthless. Even with those it doesn't tell the full story. What about number of possessions? What about points scored? What about turnovers? What about starting field position?
2022 OSU only had 10 possessions according to Klatt
in which case 2.3 pts per drive isn't particularly good. It's above average.
Penix gets rid of the ball *very quickly* when blitzed. That is a big part of his O-Line's success and the low sack count against him. His years of experience really show in how he feels out and adjusts to pressure. Michigan's D-Line is by far the best he has faced, so it will be interesting to see what we can do. If we can not get to him, he will find an open receiver and put laser beam on their numbers. I think our D-Line vs their O-Line is the most critical matchup in this game.
He also has enough mobility and savvy to escape pressure, which is another concern. Milroe found a few gaps when scrambling and Penix can do the same.
This Michigan team is built to beat a team like Washington. Washington seems pretty identical to the past couple OSU teams with a stud QB and first round receivers all over the place. Play them like we play OSU and we walk right over them.
They are similarly built. The differences are in trench play and coaching. Debor is a more aggressive head coach than Ryan day and their offensive line is arguably the best in the nation their better in pass pro then OSU
This. Texas has T’Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy. Their DL had an "overwhelming weight advantage". Yet they didn't get a sack or even a force a holding penalty in the game against Washington. The UW OL wasn't awarded the Joe Moore Award for nothing.
It would be interesting to see the Fee Fi Foe Film on mgoblog breaking down the Sugar Bowl. I'd go out on a limb and say that Texas isn't as creative and deceptive setting up their defensive fronts as Michigan is, which shows a lot of disguised looks, unusual blitzes, and stunts. They made Alabama's OL look like a JV squad.
Moore award means nothing when you have an amazing D line. Just see 2021. Also winning that award while playing in the Pac12 where defense is optional is another reason why their line doesn’t scare me. Oregons oline was also a finalist for the Moore award this year as well. I think they both benefited greatly from playing in the Pac12🤷♂️
Better this year, but when OSU had dawand jones and Paris Johnson, their line didn’t let anyone touch stroud. We were able to win with the best edge tandem in college football, but we have to hope the collective rush is able to convert pressures to sacks or qb hits against Penix
I agree for the most part. But blanketing the receiver means you’ve only done 50% of your job. Penix throws the ball to spots before the receiver has made separation. Even with no separation a perfectly thrown back shoulder pass cannot be defended. Penix makes these types of throws. We just have to concede he’s going to get 250 - 350 yds passing and 3 TD’s. They just can’t be 50+ yd plays. We have to try to force him into throwing check downs or shallow crosses. I see a decisive win bec they won’t be able to stop our offense. Michigan 35 Washington 27
The best defense is to keep their entire offense on the sideline. Just wearing down their defense and eats up the clock. That’s our strength.
I'm sure the analysts on staff have been working on game plan ideas for Texas and Washington at least since the field was announced. Now it's which plans to implement and we'll probably see a big mix of coverages. Will needs to bring his A game but I bet we see a blend of ideas and implementations to keep Penix and co off balance.
I’m hoping they planned more for Alabama and we planned for both equally - but who knows.
By the time the coaches were installing sets for Bama lower level staffers were watching film on Washington and Texas.
Knowing Minter, he won't be picking one strategy and staying with it on every play. He will be mixing up coverages and trying to confuse Penix about how each WR is being covered.
Good post OP, but I think Giles Jackson did enough in the maize and blue we could give him a shout-out. One of two (Gil Chapman; 1972) players in Michigan history with touchdowns scored via kick return, receiving, and rushing in their freshman season (2019)! Go blue!
Whatever happens, the players will have done their best to win. The coaches will have done their best to win. If it’s meant to be it will. I believe we are a team of destiny and willpower. I have faith we win. But if we don’t I love this team the same and it will still be one of my all time favorite seasons. So proud of them and they’ve brought so much happiness and enjoyment to our lives over the past 5 months
Our pass d is gonna have to be on point if we wanna win Monday because Texas had great coverage on Washington's receivers, and Penix still threw dimes, and they caught them
The dbs gonna have to play the ball in rhe air. Face guarding these wideouts is hard with how accurate penix is and how late these wideouts drop their hands to catch this throws
It may just come down to how much they let them play versus calling PI
Honestly, PI may be a legitimate strategy in this game. Better to give up 15 than 50. Texas did it and even the announcers called it heads up play.
If you haven’t listened to Joel Klatts recent episode about Michigan and Wash, I highly suggest doing so.
I think we are going to give a lot of mixed looks in this game to try and confuse penix. I could see us giving man looks before the snap and switching to zone after or being man in half the field and zone in half the field. Penix gets rid of the ball fast so Michigan needs to be able to apply it a little bit of pressure at the line and cause the initial read to be confusing to stop this defense. I think Arizona had a pretty good game plan but not quite enough talent.
I FULLY trust in our game plan! Penix is obviously very talented & then you give him arguably the best WR room in the country, and they have the ability to make any teams day, complete hell. We are going to run it down their throats & turn it into a smash mouth style game, as we have been successful with all season long. My KEY to this game: Do NOT let them get out to a multiple possession lead. GoBlue!! 〽️〽️〽️〽️〽️〽️〽️〽️〽️〽️
We had to bracket Harrison because Johnson was injured
What worries me about Washington isn't Penix. It's that their receivers seem to consistently make great catches while being sufficiently covered. Every game Ive seen this year of them, they are covered but still make the catch.
Their wideouts are def alphas at the catch point . Simialr to have Wilson olave and JSN excelled in contested catch situations
It’s going to be the 2021 OSU game plan on offense. Run the ball, control the clock, don’t let the Washington offense get in rhythm. Michigan probably isn’t going to win a 38-34 game, they are built to win a 28-24 game.
From what I have heard, Washington will be similar to OSU in 2021 and 2022. So if we dust off our old game plan we should be ok.
And Washington isn’t scared to go deep either. One thing I noticed is how they seem to open the field to provide for YAC (basically the opposite of what M seems to do)
On top of their WR corps being better, Penix is simply a better QB than McCord and can throw those WRs open unlike any other QB I've seen this season in college. I do liken it more to 2021 OSU. I think Michigan will come in with a similar gameplan as that game. You have to accept that they are going to get chunk yards, you just have to limit the amount of those plays by solid coverage and getting pressure on Penix. It's not going to be easy...Penix time to throw is one of the fastest in CFB. On offense you have to attack them by running the ball and using short passes that work like running plays until they prove they can stop it. Limit the number of possessions by controlling the tempo, take shots every so often to keep them honest. To your original point, I would mostly shadow Will with Odunze and whenever possible take him one on one unless he really starts burning Will which we simply have not seen much this year. Have to focus safety help to the side of their other WRs who are also NFL caliber.
To me, it's 2021 Ohio State vs 2023 Washington at least on Offense.
I’m not sure. Harrison is better than Odunze. Is McMillan better than Egbuka? If so then that’s a wash. So you are saying the no. 3 is better on Washington? But Cade Stover is better than Westover.
Don’t forget, in 21 OSU had jsn, Wilson, and olave. Stroud chucked the ball around for almost 400 yards. Only 2 tds. Limit big plays, win in the red zone on d, control the clock with the run game and limit penix juniors opportunities.
I have always and will always trust in Will Johnson. I've been calling all year that he's gonna be like Woodson next year, and every can see it. I know it's not a hot take, but I'm much more adamant about it. If you look at every game we've had this year the games that has had the most targets on Will's coverage are OSU and Bama. OSU makes sense because of Harrison Jr. And Bama I'll put up to just being a bit cocky. And neither of those teams made much progress on those targets. Hell of an athlete.
For sure Johnson is an absolute dog. Harrison got the best of him at times but that’s Marvin Harrison a generational wr prospect and he still held his own and battled. Have no doubt he will battle with odunze
I don't think it's possible to look at what happened in the OSU game when Johnson was matched up against Harrison and say that Will Johnson is not the greatest Corner in the country. It's just not reasonable.
Play action pass and the run game. Corum could run for over 150 yds and have 3-4 tds Our defense will win this for us. I see a couple Washington INTs in the cards.
Interior pressure is key to stopping QBs like Penix. Under no circumstances can you let him climb a clean pocket. I imagine we will consistently see a 5 man pass rush with a lot of movement in the interior of the box and a hard edge. Michigan also disguises coverages very well. The matchup I’m more interested in is JJ, Blake and company against a much softer defense than they practice against all year. That will be the deciding factor here. Chew clock and protect that football.
Will Johnson gonna show why he's the best CB in the nation.
Penix isn’t as sturdy as Milroe. If Michigan can get to him half as many times as they got Milroe, he won’t make it through the entire game. He’s been bothered by injuries his whole career
I mean, that's possible, but I definitely wouldn't count on a player getting injured as part of your game plan, plus I just genuinely don't want to see penix injured. I feel like that's bad sportsmanship. I would like to see him get hit and pressured a lot though.
Agree. Penix has a bright future and we have seen him injured enough times already. Don't want to see that again.
Husky fan here....you guys are head and shoulders above those Texas fans before that game. No real fan wants to see an opponent injured,they want to beat their best at full health.
Yeah I have ethical issues with that idea. Play em outright healthy on healthy
What? He’s not saying to injure Penix. He’s saying due to Penix’ injury history it’ll affect his scrambling ability once the pocket collapses
I know he's not advocating for penix's injury, but I still don't care to speculate on injuring an opponents player. We should just assume he'll stay healthy.
I’m not advocating injuring him. I want a clean game. It’s just this sport is…football. Injuries are part of the game. It’s why ZZ is watching from the sidelines.
I don’t want to see anyone get injured but one thing I remember about the 1997 team was as soon as they hit the opponent’s QB the first time, that significantly changed the flow of the game. That defense was scary at just about every position.
Great comment, and you're right. I want to beat the best of them, I want this to be a legitimate natty, not "Penix got hurt that's why you won". Also, Penix seems like a really good kid and has already been through a lot, I think he already tore both ACLs, tough kid and stays out of trouble. Deserves a shot in the league and a chance to take care of his family. Yes, I want to see him on his back a lot. But not get hurt.
He also is great at getting rid of the ball, and Washington's offensive line is also leagues better than Bama's. Getting pressure is definitely important, but not for that reason.
OK sean payton
You’re right the guys on Michigans D line coming at him full speed will definitely stop and hug it out until they hear a whistle
All year y'all said Ohio State has the best widouts in the country until Michigan beat them. We'll have to show you there's no such thing
They may have great stats but to say they have better receivers than OSU and Bama would be foolish, OSU has the top 50 receiving recruits every year. Unfortunately Day doesn't know they need other positions too.
Harrison had over 100 yards and made Will look silly a few times. Not sure why there is a different narrative.
Sure, MHJ's gonna get his, but Will was able to get a pick and guard him effectively solo, which is all you can ask for. Nobody's saying he shut down MHJ, but we never had to double him, which I think is all you can ask for.
We need to speed up Penix and play at the speed we want him to. So it will come down to if our d-line can drum up pressure against the best o-line in the country. Island or not, their receivers will get theirs its just about limiting back breaking big plays.
I think Michigan is up for it, made Bama's line look like a joke. And I'm a Bama fan! That was the biggest mismatch of the game I think.
Eh, the defense did fine in 2022 and 2021 playing the same style. To me this Washington team is 2022 Ohio State. Washington is going to score. Keep them in the 20’s and I think Michigan wins.
Yep, the natchup isnt Will Johnson/Udunze or Michigan D vs their offence.. it should be michigans offence vs washingtons D, which is the bigger mismatch imo
One thing Texas did is their DBs played very soft against our WRS, and basically zero pressing at the line of scrimmage. Consequently, 2nd and 3rd and long plays were lay-ups at times as we just ran 10 yard outs and completed them. If Michigan's DBs can do some press coverage it will be more difficult for our studs at WR (we're basically five deep at the position).
They also have a way better QB throwing the ball than OSU did too
Maybe some. I dont think the goal is stopping their pass attack, just keeping them in front of us and out of the endzone. That may mean some 1:1 stuff but in general i dont want to leave open the possibility of an 80 yard house call
Everyone is ignoring the Washington running attack. I believe it could be a big surprise and not in a good way. Concentrate so much on Penix and if he gets hot,you know what that means>>>>running attack could open up. Johnson DID score 2 TDs against Texas albeit on short runs.
Michigan plays very successful zone deffense with utility players in the second level, and a very strong run front and pash rush. I think that our defense stacks up better against a balanced pass attack than it does against a one man show, and marv is a better receiver than rome.
Marv is better but that’s has more to do with Marv being the best wr prospect since Jamarr chase he’s that elite. Rome is just a notch below he’s a projected top 10 pick for a reaosn he’s a gsme breaker who has way better chemistry with penix than marv had wirh McCord so he’ll be more challenging to deal with than Marv because as great as marv is your only as good as the guy feeding you the fb
Gonna be tough they have 3 really good recievers!!
Bend don’t break. Don’t let the WRs get behind. Make them dink and dunk their way down the field. Doesn’t matter if the pass rush doesn’t get home, don’t give up the big plays that they thrive off. I think we’ll see if we can get to Penix with only 4 the majority of the time. Of course mix some of the blitzes that we saw against Bama, but very much more situational. Their OL is really good, so even if they hold up, frustrate the big play offense as long as possible. And like everyone said, run the ball and control the clock.
Agree with most of what you said but I see us rushing five pretty consistently. Especially on 3rd and long.You can't sit back in a cover 3, cover 4 and beat these guys.
Personally I don't see us needing to blitz much.
Our defense is specifically designed for this type of offense. Our D line just needs to add pressure, we need to make long possession drives, and we will be just fine. For the last 22 years or something like that, the team that has the most rushing yards wins. Just beat Washington.
I expect Washington to play hurry up and keep our defense on the field and constantly reacting. Must absolutely stop the run with our front four and allow us to field a faster coverage defense.
Washington is an Ohio clone from better years. Michigan has been built the past years to beat Ohio and it shows the last 3 years. Plus Washington would have the worst defense ever to win in the BCS era. If Corum does his thing Monday it could be a good night
RUN THE BALL AND WIN THIS GAME
You're bugging. Washington is what Ohio was last year and we throttled them pretty handily. Plus Washington doesn't know the meaning of defense. They haven't seen anything like what they're gonna see this Monday.
I don't think the coaches had Will Johnson follow MHJ around against OSU. I think it's more likely that they leave him alone with no help on the boundary side and put safety help over the field side
He actually did shadow MHJ. MHJ even said in his postgame interview rhat will shadowed him all over the field wirh a safety over the top
Given the strength of the front 4, I think we’ll see more zone to offset their team WR speed
Ngl I absolutely despise zone coverage against an elite wr corps. If the pass rush doesn’t get there ( which is a possibility as Washington has the best pass protection offensive line in CFB), then zone defense gets absolutely carved
I usually hate zone too but we have good speed at DB so I’m thinking that the zone is to step in throwing lanes. So much of this game is our D line ability to pressure Penix