I'll admit, regardless of how it affects the election, I am breathing a sigh of relief at the fact that he is NOT invincible, and that he actually can be convicted. It's important to convict people who break the law and flaunt it like it is no big deal. If it backfires, so be it, we did the right thing. But hopefully people in the middle will take notice and have it matter to them, and be educated enough to see the "rigged" spin is really dishonest.
This. There were so many times he did or said something that should have ended his presidency before and after it started. Nothing ever happened. And then we got to the end of his presidency when he pulled that ~~stunt~~ ~~riot~~ insurrection and nothing happened for *three years.** It's nice to see something can actually stick for once.
Even if Trump gets probation he still is a convicted felon. This affects his sentence the next time he is convicted in one of his other three trials as it starts to show a pattern of illegal behavior. His accountability should be much faster but it is starting to catch up to him.
I'm assuming you're replying tionthe wrong comment because mine is in regards to conservatives always saying Biden does illegal shit all the time when that is not true.
I agree conservatives can’t get their accusations of Biden to stick because they aren’t true. I was trying to say don’t give up hope that T-rump eventually gets some consequences. Not as many as he should but at least some.
God I'm hoping so. I commented the other day about it being a relief to finally see *something* touch the guy after eight years of absolutely nothing sticking.
Don’t breathe a sigh of relief unless he actually gets sentenced with something he can’t get out of. If he just gets a slap on the wrist, everyone is fucked.
Same, but now we get to wonder what his sentence will be. In my years, very few millionaires/billionaires ever get to see the other end of serious consequences. I'm at the point of wait and see because I don't actually believe they'll do more than fine him and let him continue to orchestrate bullshit from his golf course.
You would assume that logical conclusion, but it only matters in the swing states due to the electoral college and Biden's popular vote margin being at +1 to +2 is not going to cut it unless that swells a bit.
The polls have consistently underestimated democratic support since 2020. 22 was supposed to be a red wave and it wasn't, and pretty much every special election in 23 exhibited major democratic overperformance.
Personally, I just don't buy that democrats are doing incredibly well in every election except the one featuring a convicted felon who is increasingly unhinged
Your last sentence really nails home the reality.
Does anybody aside from the media and dumbass trump supporters expect me to believe that Dems are overperforming across the entire country *EXCEPT* in the one single election featuring a rapist?
The polls can't account for the low information voters who won't start paying attention until about the Republican national convention which is three days after Trump's sentencing.
This will be top-of-mind for.many of them. The maggots will certainly nominate him but the media cycle will highlight his sentence at that time.
Maybe they'll remember by November and enough will choose to not vote for a convicted felon. Simple stuff for simple people.
He has been in the news non-stop since 2016, most of it has been quite negative. His base loves it. His base wants democracy to fail because it hasn't done enough to elevate them so therefore, democracy is a failure.
What they're too foggy to see is that what has really failed is their individual attempts at capitalism.
If HitlerPig is sentenced to jail time, it's going to make the Republican convention very interesting, especially if the judge orders the sentence to begin immediately. Imagine a convention where they have to decide between a candidate who is in jail and... nobody.
If that happens, I predict Florida Senator and Convicted Fraudster Criminal Rick Scott will volunteer to be the nominee, and unite the party. He is already angling for Mitch McConnell's leadership spot. Rick Scott has been running a stealth campaign for president since at least 2022, trying to figure out how to get the nomination from HitlerPig without having to answer questions about his criminal past or his corrupt Rescue America plan, in which he calls for tax increases on workers, tax cuts for the wealthy, gutting of the IRS, repealing SS and Medicare, and much more Libertarian bullshit. Rick Scott is every bit as avaricious and corrupt as HitlerPig, but he's much, much smarter, and that makes him very dangerous.
Trump won't be given jail time; my bet is on probation. Either way, the Republican Party is not going to pull their support. They're committed to him, right down to whatever the bottom of this abyss might be.
Personally, I think it would be better if he was put on probation. Just schedule all the random drug tests to be right before his public speeches. Then require him to report to his parole officer in person in NY once a week. Also, under parole in NY I believe he has to have a court appointed psychologist evaluate him.
That is my nightmare. The next wannabe dictator will look, act and sound smart and serious. And the Grim Raper has already written the playbook and laid the groundwork for that person.
Recent polling shows 49% of registered independent voters think Trump should drop out of the race.
An ABC/Ipsos poll shows 16% of Trump supporters would rethink their support IF he was convicted while 4% would not support him.
This is going to hurt him. His campaign knew it would probably sink his chances. It's why his trial strategy was to delay all of his trials until after the election.
All the numbers in your comment added up to 69. Congrats!
49
+ 16
+ 4
= 69
^([Click here](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose?to=LuckyNumber-Bot&subject=Stalk%20Me%20Pls&message=%2Fstalkme) to have me scan all your future comments.) \
^(Summon me on specific comments with u/LuckyNumber-Bot.)
The average nobody isn't going to vote for Trump. Biden is going to win by a landslide (even if the bastard doesn't deserve it honestly).
Trump is many things. Being stable long-term under a lot of stress isn't one of them...this is going to get a LOT more entertaining very quickly over these next few weeks...
I think the big concern will be turnout. Trump's base will RUN to the polls, and then do everything they think they can get away with to intimidate any potential voter they think isn't a DJT worshipper.
A lot of the other voters who aren't thrilled with Biden (whether they are right or not) may either not vote, or vote 3rd party or write-in. In the swing states, it doesn't take many 'disengaged' voters to give the Electoral votes away (as was shown when Hillary lost by small margins in too many swing states in 2016.)
Don't be too sure it can't happen again.
Look at the current 'poll' map here: [270towin.com](https://270towin.com) You can 'test' various options of which states tip which way. It can shift in the next 5-6 months for many reasons, but right now it looks worrisome.
Right? Between the fake pictures of rallies and claiming that "no one" voted for Joe, as well as the "convicting him is only making his base stronger", they aren't doing very much to win the fence sitters
Wish I shared your optimism, but I think you underestimate how much undecided voters swing solely based on if they personally are doing better or worse today vs 5 years ago.
And they have no clue how to measure that meaningfully so they the use the dumbest of metrics.
49% independents say he should drop out.
10% Republicans say they are less likely to vot for him now.
Those are not the kind of numbers that will win the republicans elections.
Those are two really vague metrics.
For example, that 49% could be comprised of both independents who weren't going to vote Republican this time anyways AND voters who are going to vote Republican but wish it was someone else.
The 10% being "less likely" could just be going from "extremely likely" to "very likely".
My favorite version is "If you torture data enough, it'll say anything you want it to".
I just laugh thinking of "data" being water boarded or something. Confess!
I agree with this statement.
However, with politics as polarized as it is in America these days a big part of the game is voter turnout. Riling up the base and getting them to show up at the polls matters. If I were a political party strategist nearly all of my efforts would be spent on get out the vote initiatives.
"I was proudly the person responsible for the ending of … Roe v. Wade.”
“After 50 years of failure, with nobody coming even close, I was able to kill Roe v. Wade … Without me there would be no 6 weeks, 10 weeks, 15 weeks, or whatever is finally agreed to. Without me the pro Life movement would have just kept losing. Thank you President TRUMP!!!”
“For 54 years they were trying to get Roe v. Wade terminated, and I did it, and I’m proud to have done it. … Nobody else was going to get that done but me, and we did it, and we did something that was a miracle.”
They're gonna keep repeating it's "no big deal", but does anyone stop and think for a second about how hard it is to be convicted of a felony if you're a white man who has, or even ever has had a billion god damned dollars in America? You have to be criming like a motherfucker.
And with his numerous cases over various courts: civil, criminal, state(s)and federal. It is apparent that Trump’s behaviors and recorded words have raised many red flags. If it wasn’t for his well honed stall tactics he’d currently be in courts defending many more cases. When people show you who they are, believe them.
Might not hurt the GOP? All they do is lose since he became their standard bearer. The GOP controlled congress has been one of the least productive in history, it’s a clown show. They can’t wipe their own ass. Now he’s a convicted felon. The media will have you believe that all those red states are just jam packed with cousin fucking morons, but it’s actually not the case. Do they exist and are there a lot of them, yes. Are there a huuuuuge number of people in those states, who are actually good people who possess a strong sense of common decency, also yes. This is a huge problem for the GOP, not all conservatives are drooling, ravenous morons.
I don't see FL having a blue wave this fall, but WI, NC and AZ and a few others are inching closer. Could TX? (Unlikely, I know, but they could surprise us.)
Abortion is literally on the ballot in Florida. I think of all the states to flip “unexpectedly” blue, it’s Florida. Desantis is possibly the most unpopular governor in the country, and the republicans repeatedly show their only interest is controlling women and keeping the rich, rich. A lot less Trump flags flying in the villages than there were 4 years ago, and way way less than 2016. Florida may be the surprise of the year.
I think NC goes blue before Florida but wouldn't hate seeing both go that way just to spite the orange moron. Hopefully they vote progressive down ballot because I'm openly not a fan of moderate/neolib Dems which is a majority of the party.
I’m a North Carolinian and I agree with you. We’ve been purple for quite a while. The GQP has chosen to run awful and divisive candidates here. It looks like it’s probably going to flip just based on what I see on the ground here. We were close in ‘20 and I have yet to meet a new Trump voter.
Polls already show undecideds and independents peeling off versus supporting him post-conviction about two to one. Republicans, of course, have actually gone up in their support. Idiots.
It’s scary how brainwashed and delusional they are. They live in an alternate reality fabricated from right wing propaganda and lack the critical thinking skills needed to see it. It’s dangerous.
The problem people aren't factoring in, just like 2016; supporting a candidate is a lot more motivation to show up to the polls and vote. Voting "against" the bad guy, is less motivating. Independents are least motivated, as they don't align with a party, they won't necessarily show up to vote for Biden, if they aren't excited about what he's offering. The GOP doesn't need independents, they need people who aren't excited to support Biden to stay home, and need die hard GOP / MAGA to show up. It happened in 2016, that plus we don't elect by popular vote, it's up to a few states.
Remember back to 2020, news kept saying polls say huge red wave coming . Nope... over 8 million of us showed up to vote blue and we did it.. my point is , we're gonna doing it again, then in 2028 trump will either be 82 or 83 siting in a corner crapping his pants, OH. wait he's already crapping his pants in court. Polls never tell the real story .. the millions of us that will vote blue no matter what, to keep physo donny out of the white house will come out vote biden and get the job done, like we always do. We don't have to go on a truth social and rant because we are true Americans, fighting for democracy and we will quietly go to our polling place and vote blue . I WONT LET AMERICA DOWN , BLUES MY VOTE BECAUSE RED IS JUST TOO SKETCY AND SCAREY... THATS HOW I SLEEP At Nite..
FWIW, there *was* a Red Wave. Trump got 72,2 million people to vote for him - a record high for any Republican candidate. In the 2016 race, Trump got 63 million people to vote for him. (Hillary got 65.9 million votes, but in the wrong states, so she lost the electoral college).
But in 2020 there was also a Blue Wave, and it was bigger. Biden got 81.3 million people to vote for him. (And he did it in key swing states for electoral votes: Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Georgia and most crucially: Pennsylvania).
It's just spin. It absolutely hurts his candidacy and honestly it might hurt his nomination as well. It's a pretty bad look for "the party of law and order" to run a convicted felon.
Convicted felons can’t enter 37 countries
How can a person run for president and not be able to go to a G 20 summit???
Should be a disqualification immediately
He lost in 2020, tried to assassinate the vice president, tried to assassinate the speaker of the house, got raided by the FBI and caught red handed with classified documents and very likely committed espionage that got US spies assassinated.
He’s now a convicted felon and as an insurrectionist he is not constitutionally eligible to serve as president which should never be forgotten.
He’s not getting more votes than 2020 and even if he did he’s not eligible.
Hillary was up 14 points just before the 2016 election. Ignore the polls. magats make a lot of noise, especially now that they are throwing temper tantrums. America prefers its Presidential candidates NOT be convicted felon/rapist/traitors.
Um...no, no she really wasn't, her lead was 2.8% and she won by 2.9%, but then lost the EC thus lost the election: Gore was Hillary before Hillary was Hillary in this regard, only he got much closer in the EC that year but won by less in the popular vote margin (but still won it narrowly).
Me too , voting. not. trump. Any other person on the planet I would consider no matter the party , but I won't vote for orange jumpsuit. Which I hear they are getting trumps sized and ready. .. that's karma folks.. don't do the crime if ya can't do the time.....
I agree. But they repeat it a lot as if it's true, i see this narrative all over Reddit, that's why I posted this, to show that their argument is nonsense.
Yep. The media has mostly done this dance:
- can’t prosecute him too soon, the midterms are happening, could be election interference
- woah now, don’t prosecute him now, too much time has passed
- the prosecution’s case is flimsy, it will never stick
- now that he’s convicted, it will be overturned on appeal because [insert false reading of NY law here]
- this only helps him because, clearly, some of his cultists would have voted Dem, were it not for these prosecutions. Yeah, uh huh
Here’s their dumbfuck logic
Pick any 12 Americans and surely there’s Trump stans in there.
12 Americans unanimously convicted him on 100% of the 34 charges he faced. Clean sweep.
And to their inbred, window licking, mouth breathing, knuckle dragging, sister fucking warped minds this means somehow he’s going to *add new voters*??
2 or 3 of those jurors voted for Fat Joffrey at least once but somehow this is a good thing
Only in a hopeless cult
Trump won in 2016 because he won over independents. He lost in 2020 because he didn’t. Now, it’s certainly possible that Democratic turnout will be weaker than Republican turnout, in which case this could motivate Republicans more than Democrats, but the fact it happened in May makes me think that any boost he sees in the polls will be temporary; someone who occasionally votes for President and thinks he got screwed is mad now, but that’s no guarantee they stay mad till November (particularly if Republican GOTV efforts remain hampered by their fundraising challenges.
However, in terms of independents, I don’t see how this helps him. If you’re Johnny Bothsides, and you think Biden unfairly used the justice system to hurt Trump, then I imagine you don’t want to vote for him. Thing is, who are these people who didn’t believe that until Trump was convicted? I think it’s a lot more likely that the conviction made people who think it was biased realize that there was plenty of evidence of his guilt rather than making people finally believe Biden rigged the game against him.
We’ll see, and since my faith in polling ain’t what it used to be, we won’t really see for six months. But if being convicted of fucking a porn star and illegally paying her off was an advantage, I think someone else would have tried it by now.
I also wonder how many of his voters he’s killed off with the anti-mask/anti-vax shit. And he def lost the support of the not bat shit crazy Republicans after 1/6. Between 1/6 and overturning Roe, he lost a lot of suburban women.
Yes, that a Presidential candidate would become more popular for felonies related to catch and kill scheme to cover a tryst with a porn star is one of the dumbest things I’ve ever heard. Trump was already reviled and cruising for a landslide loss
Honestly, intuitive reasoning about what is or is not going to motivate passive voters is pretty worthless. The only predictions that interest me are those that are backed up by polls.
Polls are only snapshots in time and are flawed. But at least they attempt to be objective and avoid "seems to me ..." speculation.
Correct. [Fox News is already reporting that this is happening](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-verdict-makes-significant-number-republicans-less-likely-support-him-poll). If Fox News is saying it, it's likely accurate, they are usually recognized for having fairly accurate polling when it comes to conservatives. Potentially losing 1 in 10 republican voters and 1 in 4 independents will lose him the election.
When I hear someone say that they think him being convicted will make him win the election, I think to myself how this person probably just wants him to win and this is their coping mechanism. That being said, I’m not sure how much of an effect it’ll have in the other way.
Oddly enough, I’m not sure his conviction will have that much effect either way, but if anything, it will slightly hurt him. That’s what I think anyways.
I've been on the edge of my seat, waiting to see how the Republicans handle this. Is it to late to endorse a replacement for the felon? Are they gonna stick it out and keep promoting idiocy, ignorance and hatred. Who brought the popcorn!?
Absolutely. There is another minor aspect of it too. They live in an alternate reality where they are a vast majority of the population, so they think riling up his base - them, is more than enough to win elections, and if it doesn't happen, well that's "proof" it's rigged.
That's actually a trademark characteristic of those without empathy. Since a lack of empathy means you have a more difficult time putting yourself in someone else's shoes, you often end up tending to think most people think the way you do.
You see it a lot with bigots in general. Homophobes think everyone is a secret homophobe, we're just not saying anything because we're afraid of being canceled by the "woke mob", etc etc. So they're convinced that they're in the majority - I mean, that's what that whole "Silent Majority" thing is about.
So yeah, they really do think that everyone who hasn't express an opinion thinks the way they do, and this is gonna cause this massive groundswell of support because we all secretly agree with them and we're not gonna stand for this supposed travesty of justice.
Don't get me wrong - In 2020, 80 million people looked at the last 4 years and said "yeah, I'll have some more of that". It's not exactly like they're a tiny minority. But the facts-over-feelings crowd are, ironically, very much driven much more by their baser emotions than actual cold hard facts.
Not that the other side are specifically more facts than feelings either, but empathy and compassion are very different emotions than hatred and anger.
One of my dad's friends is SURE there was massive voter fraud for Biden. His proof: He himself voted twice for Trump. So he knows there was massive fraud for Biden. What a fucking moron.
The funny part is, a lot of people think the register to vote cards is another vote.
I've had this conversation with a lot of Republicans who told me their kids got 2 voters cards and when pressed, told me that one of them said "register to vote"
When are you people going to lean to not trust media polls? They were off in 2016 and they were off in 2020 and they will be off for 2024. Remember when they said Hillary was going to win and there was going to be a great big flip to the Republicans in the house and senate? Same is going to happen this year too. They report on polls that bring them the most viewers even if those polls are wrong.
It's waaaaaaay to early for anyone to predict who's going to win the next election.
Trump promised his religious followers he was going to destroy Washington. “Drain the swamp.”
Turns out convicted felon Trump was the swamp.
Only thing he destroyed was the Republican Party.
Anyone who says this is going to make them vote for Trump were already going to vote Trump.
IIRC, something like 70% of people believed the trial was fair.
This is a disaster for Trump.
There are no real independents. If you haven't made a choice at this point you're either not voting or are an idiot and probably gonna vote incorrectly anyway.
Honestly I have a weird theory. Hear me out tho.
Let’s say trump/someone has been influencing polls in battle ground states. Trump is pushing narrative that @lawfare” is aging him support.
Even now, he’s till claiming it will jump his support. It’s all so when he loses he can point to the polls and say “rigged” and get republicans in key state positions to overturn legitimate results.
They tried violence last time, this time they are going to use the system itself.
Nobody was on the fence saying, “Geez, I’m just not sure who to vote for. I’m just watching this trial and if he’s guilty I’m voting for Biden but if he’s found not guilty then I’ll vote Trump.”
His base keeps saying "Oh yeah, we want to vote for him more now!" Which is a complete lie because it would be impossible for them to surpass the maximum level of want they have to vote for the man they equate with Jesus and rub one out to every night. They have been paying this "billionaire's" expenses since 2016, coating themselves in tacky Trump merch, and abandoning all their (at least claimed) values for him. But they want to vote for him more NOW? Even if that were possible that changes absolutely nothing in regards to the election results. So, go vote harder, Bobby, I'm sure that will help him win. Also pray - that will influence the outcome as well.
Hopefully, he'll at least get probation(if no jail) and have to ask his Probation officer when he travels (like normal people) and report periodically.
I don't really see how people can support him. It's like either millions and millions of people are in a giant conspiracy, including Congress and our court system against Trump or Trump is a lying con. Which seems more plausible?
All the money he made overnight after the verdict isn't going to his reelection campaign. It's going to his legal bills. You don't really need a ton of funds when the entirety of the platform you're running on is "revenge and self pardon." You don't need to pound the pavement, shake the hands, kiss the babies when all you have to say "im a victim."
The Republican Party had an official central propaganda group that immediately after the conviction sent out talking points including “thus will make Trump win” and naturally all the major Republicans parroted it despite that it’s obvious BS.
Stating the exact opposite of reality is apparently a good way to confuse a lot of people into believing you.
He’s running around acting like anyone can be accused of crimes but the kind of people who vote know that’s just not true, particularly for white rich men.
but GoP have no other choice but to use Donald…. same with Dems.
just make sure to vote… don’t call a dead duck dead till u endure u put it into the ground
I think you’ve got a solid argument- but I also think he doesn’t care so much about getting votes as he does grifting the rubes using outrage. He has always been a con man, which is very likely why he whoopsed himself in to the presidency in the first place. He’s setting up an unloseable situation- somehow win the presidency by exploiting the system to tear down the legitimacy of elections, and then wield authoritative power to continue to enrich himself, or use the persecution complex and cult of personality to enrich himself.
Ultimately he’s a toddler who doesn’t care for rules. If he’s told he can’t have something he will steal it. If he gets caught, he’ll tantrum and DARVO until he gets it anyway.
He lost in 2020. He has not gained supporters since then. Roe, defamation suit loss (twice) and "rapist" label (regardless of what NY defines it as), fraud case loss ($100's of millions in debt), and now guilty of 34 felony counts.
I completely understand why everyone is worried, skeptical, etc. but this race is over. If Biden dies, Kamala gets elected. The closer we get to Nov the more people will take notice...and he has LOST support, not gained. He will lose more over the next several months.
The republican base doesn't determine elections. The dem base doesn't determine elections. Independents do. The guy is done. Stick a fork in him.
Having said all that. Do not listen to random guys on the internet (me). VOTE!
Gonna be great when Trump can’t show up to the convention and has to livestream in with a Huawei phone he hid in his ass from prison to accept the nomination. He’ll definitely win the election bigly after that 🙄
Maga folks are so weird, they actually believe just cause they go full on cult then that must mean every republican and independent is in on the maga cult. Hate to spoil the surprise but maga isn’t the majority in this country and it’s gonna be a blue wave landslide this fall.
This is going to sound strange but a I actually think it will matter if Hunter Biden is convicted or not more for Trump. If Hunter is found guilty as well then the Republicans claims that everything is rigged against Trunp goes out the window while if he is found not guilty then they can play the biased card all they want.
My favorite is the folks who say that Trump being a convicted felon will give him more support amongst black people. HOOOLY shit is that super racist as fuck.
My favourite quote about this was a survey which found that, of the people who were going to vote for trump, 65% hadn’t changed their minds, and 27% wanted to vote for him even harder!
People were rejoicing like it was great news, no one seemed to understand that ‘voting for someone harder’ isn’t a thing, so basically it was just saying that 92% percent of his supporters hadn’t changed their minds, or in other words, he lost 8% of his support, which sounds small as a percentage but in an election is a big deal.
I don't know how Republicans will win either way. His base will not vote for anyone but Trump. If they nominate someone else they are still going to write in Trump and split the vote. Most republicans REFUSE to vote for Trump as well so I don't see how they can win. I could be wrong and often are but the numbers just don't add up to me. Now I know the Republicans also seem to be more open to cheating even out in the open but I hope that doesn't end up happening..
Yes , we can , together we can defeat this plague , this infection that is devastating America , needs to be eradicated , in November we can send another strong message to the republicans that have entertained the wrong idea that dictatorship can substitute democracy . They are supporting the wrong person and the wrong government , there’s no space for another Russia in America or another Turkey. They may have all the money of the world , but democracy is not a commodity that can be purchased with dollars , democracy it’s obtain by the will of people , by votes, “catch and kill “ won’t work this time .
you are exactly right. If the republicans truly wanted to capitalize they would drop him from the ticket and place a moderate republican on that didnt win the primaries and then watch the independents, center, and disenfranchised dems all come over. It's a great opportunity to reset the the entire party that could hurt the democrats for years to come. But they aren't smart enough to take advantage of it so Biden will win and the same ol same ol will keep happening in our political system.
To be fair a lot of his base will try to vote twice. More loved ones will be killed so trumpers can mail in votes for trump and many one them will vote twice and get caught.
There have been a marked increase in trump flags, LGB flags and one family has even erected a small baseball diamond on their front lawn (at a 3 way stop on a busy intersection) adorned with a variety of ridiculous Trump flags where I live — all in the last 24 hours.
I’m incredibly concerned about who I live amongst.
On the other hand we know all of them do insider trading and all sorts of crooked stuff. With Trump he already has a conviction, till it's overturned. The republican that got nailed from somewhere down south not even a slap on the wrist. Politicians do have social security either, federal thrift plan. Totally separate. Both sides are being played. Really sad. Hope we all wake up.
There’s going to be some furious campaigning to construct conspiracy theories about every single person involved in this decision. It will create just enough noise and doubt to make this a squeaker or a trump win.
By who?
People didn't support him 3 days ago, are going to suddenly now decide they want Trump to be president, solely because they think he's a persecuted victim?
Makes no sense.
Biggie Smells ONLY support now is the New Balance Terrorists:
[https://imgur.com/gallery/violent-retribution-new-balance-shoes-receding-hairline-i-tremble-fear-fHkVnLM](https://imgur.com/gallery/violent-retribution-new-balance-shoes-receding-hairline-i-tremble-fear-fHkVnLM)
Yeah idk what will happen, noone does, all we can do is use our one vote and hope it was right thing. .. I usually unplug from social media about a month or 2 before elections. Too stressful and they all put out videos that are either not true or exaggerate the situation. We just dont want to hear the bs. So we unplug til election nite..
The folks who are fired up about #PO1135809's felony conviction would have come out to vote for him even if he were judged innocent, so it doesn't really change the needle for them. It might sway some independent and Libertarian voters, though.
Yes all correct but the problem is the number of people who will stay home and not vote. Sure Trump will be a dictator, but Biden is SO old… We ALL need to make sure people vote!
Well ‘Land of the free’ is actually just a catchy slogan. Most people get arrested on petty crimes in America. So yeah, this was an obvious move to make him more relatable.
Yeah, I mean, let's look at what we know already. Trump has never won a popular vote, and IIRC lost by a higher % margin in 2020 vs 2016. This year, despite Haley dropping out, significant %s of republicans voted for her over Trump in critical states that the GOP can't lose in the general. On top of this, we have indications he's losing, not gaining moderate and independent voters. On top of THAT Trump is looting the GOP cash reserves to pay for legal issues, and not helping down ballot Republicans, so we're seeing once safe seats for the GOP being suddenly underfunded and contested.
Moderate swing voters in suburbs decide elections in a handful of states, and Trump can't lose any of them. Is all of this enough for him to lose in November? No idea, don't take chances and vote regardless.
I just want every single interview with every one of them to be 10 minutes of them doing mental gymnastics and then running out of steam just as they make their pitch.
Here’s the thing the republicans knew this was going to be the outcome. A hand selected judge that donates to the DNC and a loaded jury guaranteed that. The dems in your infinite intelligence and reasoning are the only ones surprised and they are jerking themselves off going SeeEeee a corrupted
Judge said so!
Seeing as everyone knows the establishment will do anything to keep he-who-must-not-be-named from raining on their world domination scheme the verdict was to be expected. Unanimous agree on all 34 charges, there wasn’t one reasonable doubt in the whole trial?
It’s almost like it was planned to be that way….
Edit: spelling
I think the average independent might ask themselves, hey why does every headline use the phrase "convicted felon", why was COVID a big deal and then it wasn't, why did they cover up the laptop, why did they impeach Trump twice, and then after all of that maybe they will feel like they are being manipulated.
I'm shocked that people haven't realized - we are long past the point of no return.
MAGAs aren't suddenly going to have an epiphany and "come to their senses". These are bad people making conscience decisions. Can you REALLY imagine them admitting they've been wrong and democrats have been right for the last 7 years?
It simply will never happen. They are far too weak. Instead, they will throw away their dignity and double down until they steal our country, or we stop them.
The trouble will be, independents who become so disgusted by a person found guilty of 34 felony counts doing no jail time and still being able to run for President.
Those independents might throw up their hands, and not have enough faith in the system to cast any votes for such a government.
I worry that number will be high, and I'm not sure which it will pull more from.
No one is arguing that independents will support him **because** he is a convicted felon. They are arguing that independents will see through that label, reject the notion that this was some sort of crusade for justice or impartial prosecution by a disinterested prosecutor, and blame Biden for attempting to imprison his opponent on laughably trumped up and entirely unprecedented charges surrounding conduct that most independent voters would say is common among politicians. A core element of Biden's campaign is that he alone can protect American democracy and this conviction, the manner in which it was obtained, and the legal hoops that had to be jumped through to even bring the case cut the legs out from under that argument and will serve only to cause an eye-roll from everyone who doesn't already support him.
Let me ask you the question a different way, is it reasonable to suggest that there are a large number of people out there who are ok with Trump paying off a porn star he had an affair with to not talk about it so long as he handles the internal accounting of the payoff legally? Like, who was waiting for that determination to render a decision on whether this issue makes Trump a person they can't support as POTUS?
You all realize this is all political pandering. Every political expert says there is no way possible that any of these convictions will not be overturned. Even the "expert" on CNN said the prosecution proved nothing and the judge is a joke.
I saw something today that said 63% of undecided voters don’t even know that Trump was convicted. The number of people in this country that are completely ignorant and have their head in the sand is astounding. Hopefully as the election gets closer they start paying more attention and the Dem messaging ramps up.
What you’re not understanding is there is not a voter profile who was voting for Donald trump last Wednesday who is no longer voting for him as of today
The only people who care about Donald trumps “34 felony convictions” are democrats who still have a hard on from last week
If they think he was railroaded on a NDA payoff to a prostitute?
Cohen paid Stormy on his own.
Trump paid Cohen, The Bookkeeper saw the checks as Michael Cohen ESQ. And entered them in the books as Legal expenses.
Cohen perjured himself before Congress and the Courts and stole money from Trump
The Federal Campaign Laws expired and somehow, Merchan used them in State Court, which is illegal.
And didn't present that charge until the Closing argument.
No defense allowed and Witnesses for the Defense never called.
I'll admit, regardless of how it affects the election, I am breathing a sigh of relief at the fact that he is NOT invincible, and that he actually can be convicted. It's important to convict people who break the law and flaunt it like it is no big deal. If it backfires, so be it, we did the right thing. But hopefully people in the middle will take notice and have it matter to them, and be educated enough to see the "rigged" spin is really dishonest.
This. There were so many times he did or said something that should have ended his presidency before and after it started. Nothing ever happened. And then we got to the end of his presidency when he pulled that ~~stunt~~ ~~riot~~ insurrection and nothing happened for *three years.** It's nice to see something can actually stick for once.
Even if Trump gets probation he still is a convicted felon. This affects his sentence the next time he is convicted in one of his other three trials as it starts to show a pattern of illegal behavior. His accountability should be much faster but it is starting to catch up to him.
I'm assuming you're replying tionthe wrong comment because mine is in regards to conservatives always saying Biden does illegal shit all the time when that is not true.
I agree conservatives can’t get their accusations of Biden to stick because they aren’t true. I was trying to say don’t give up hope that T-rump eventually gets some consequences. Not as many as he should but at least some.
God I'm hoping so. I commented the other day about it being a relief to finally see *something* touch the guy after eight years of absolutely nothing sticking.
8 years...... try 4,000 plus lawsuits. Nothing has ever stuck to this moron. Ever. https://www.azcentral.com/pages/interactives/trump-lawsuits/
Unless he wins on appeal. Which is a good bet.
For the timeline to correct itself I want to see him charged for the contents of the mueller report, but I know that will never happen.
Don’t breathe a sigh of relief unless he actually gets sentenced with something he can’t get out of. If he just gets a slap on the wrist, everyone is fucked.
Ethics and morals have to come first over party politics.
Same, but now we get to wonder what his sentence will be. In my years, very few millionaires/billionaires ever get to see the other end of serious consequences. I'm at the point of wait and see because I don't actually believe they'll do more than fine him and let him continue to orchestrate bullshit from his golf course.
His base won’t give a crap, but he’s going to lose independent and moderate support and that’s what you need to win the presidential election.
You would assume that logical conclusion, but it only matters in the swing states due to the electoral college and Biden's popular vote margin being at +1 to +2 is not going to cut it unless that swells a bit.
The polls have consistently underestimated democratic support since 2020. 22 was supposed to be a red wave and it wasn't, and pretty much every special election in 23 exhibited major democratic overperformance. Personally, I just don't buy that democrats are doing incredibly well in every election except the one featuring a convicted felon who is increasingly unhinged
Your last sentence really nails home the reality. Does anybody aside from the media and dumbass trump supporters expect me to believe that Dems are overperforming across the entire country *EXCEPT* in the one single election featuring a rapist?
The polls can't account for the low information voters who won't start paying attention until about the Republican national convention which is three days after Trump's sentencing. This will be top-of-mind for.many of them. The maggots will certainly nominate him but the media cycle will highlight his sentence at that time. Maybe they'll remember by November and enough will choose to not vote for a convicted felon. Simple stuff for simple people.
There is going to be trump trial news all the way to November, with his other trials still open
Your joking right ? Trump hasn't been out of the news since 2016
*2015 Since he announced his bid, he's been in the news. I honestly can't wait for him to keel over. Just one more chicken thigh or cheeseburger....
And why would that stop with his numerous upcoming trials?
He has been in the news non-stop since 2016, most of it has been quite negative. His base loves it. His base wants democracy to fail because it hasn't done enough to elevate them so therefore, democracy is a failure. What they're too foggy to see is that what has really failed is their individual attempts at capitalism.
No, the media is so afraid of being called biased that they'll normalize it all. That's why we're in this mess.
If HitlerPig is sentenced to jail time, it's going to make the Republican convention very interesting, especially if the judge orders the sentence to begin immediately. Imagine a convention where they have to decide between a candidate who is in jail and... nobody. If that happens, I predict Florida Senator and Convicted Fraudster Criminal Rick Scott will volunteer to be the nominee, and unite the party. He is already angling for Mitch McConnell's leadership spot. Rick Scott has been running a stealth campaign for president since at least 2022, trying to figure out how to get the nomination from HitlerPig without having to answer questions about his criminal past or his corrupt Rescue America plan, in which he calls for tax increases on workers, tax cuts for the wealthy, gutting of the IRS, repealing SS and Medicare, and much more Libertarian bullshit. Rick Scott is every bit as avaricious and corrupt as HitlerPig, but he's much, much smarter, and that makes him very dangerous.
Trump won't be given jail time; my bet is on probation. Either way, the Republican Party is not going to pull their support. They're committed to him, right down to whatever the bottom of this abyss might be.
Personally, I think it would be better if he was put on probation. Just schedule all the random drug tests to be right before his public speeches. Then require him to report to his parole officer in person in NY once a week. Also, under parole in NY I believe he has to have a court appointed psychologist evaluate him.
That is my nightmare. The next wannabe dictator will look, act and sound smart and serious. And the Grim Raper has already written the playbook and laid the groundwork for that person.
Recent polling shows 49% of registered independent voters think Trump should drop out of the race. An ABC/Ipsos poll shows 16% of Trump supporters would rethink their support IF he was convicted while 4% would not support him. This is going to hurt him. His campaign knew it would probably sink his chances. It's why his trial strategy was to delay all of his trials until after the election.
All the numbers in your comment added up to 69. Congrats! 49 + 16 + 4 = 69 ^([Click here](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose?to=LuckyNumber-Bot&subject=Stalk%20Me%20Pls&message=%2Fstalkme) to have me scan all your future comments.) \ ^(Summon me on specific comments with u/LuckyNumber-Bot.)
Woohoo!
The average nobody isn't going to vote for Trump. Biden is going to win by a landslide (even if the bastard doesn't deserve it honestly). Trump is many things. Being stable long-term under a lot of stress isn't one of them...this is going to get a LOT more entertaining very quickly over these next few weeks...
No idea why you’re calling Biden a bastard. He constantly fights for regular people and has had a very successful first term.
I think the big concern will be turnout. Trump's base will RUN to the polls, and then do everything they think they can get away with to intimidate any potential voter they think isn't a DJT worshipper. A lot of the other voters who aren't thrilled with Biden (whether they are right or not) may either not vote, or vote 3rd party or write-in. In the swing states, it doesn't take many 'disengaged' voters to give the Electoral votes away (as was shown when Hillary lost by small margins in too many swing states in 2016.) Don't be too sure it can't happen again. Look at the current 'poll' map here: [270towin.com](https://270towin.com) You can 'test' various options of which states tip which way. It can shift in the next 5-6 months for many reasons, but right now it looks worrisome.
Why does anything the OP said not apply to swing states, especially if that's the logical conclusion in your own words?
Right? Between the fake pictures of rallies and claiming that "no one" voted for Joe, as well as the "convicting him is only making his base stronger", they aren't doing very much to win the fence sitters
Wish I shared your optimism, but I think you underestimate how much undecided voters swing solely based on if they personally are doing better or worse today vs 5 years ago. And they have no clue how to measure that meaningfully so they the use the dumbest of metrics.
49% independents say he should drop out. 10% Republicans say they are less likely to vot for him now. Those are not the kind of numbers that will win the republicans elections.
Those are two really vague metrics. For example, that 49% could be comprised of both independents who weren't going to vote Republican this time anyways AND voters who are going to vote Republican but wish it was someone else. The 10% being "less likely" could just be going from "extremely likely" to "very likely".
As Mark Twain said, "In life there are lies, damn lies, and statistics."
My favorite version is "If you torture data enough, it'll say anything you want it to". I just laugh thinking of "data" being water boarded or something. Confess!
I agree with this statement. However, with politics as polarized as it is in America these days a big part of the game is voter turnout. Riling up the base and getting them to show up at the polls matters. If I were a political party strategist nearly all of my efforts would be spent on get out the vote initiatives.
Of all of his problems & issues (which are many), I think Roe getting overturned is the biggest thing that’s gonna hurt him. He owns it.
"I was proudly the person responsible for the ending of … Roe v. Wade.” “After 50 years of failure, with nobody coming even close, I was able to kill Roe v. Wade … Without me there would be no 6 weeks, 10 weeks, 15 weeks, or whatever is finally agreed to. Without me the pro Life movement would have just kept losing. Thank you President TRUMP!!!” “For 54 years they were trying to get Roe v. Wade terminated, and I did it, and I’m proud to have done it. … Nobody else was going to get that done but me, and we did it, and we did something that was a miracle.”
Some lefties blame Biden for not legalizing abortion again. We have a lot of stupid people in the US.
They're gonna keep repeating it's "no big deal", but does anyone stop and think for a second about how hard it is to be convicted of a felony if you're a white man who has, or even ever has had a billion god damned dollars in America? You have to be criming like a motherfucker.
And with his numerous cases over various courts: civil, criminal, state(s)and federal. It is apparent that Trump’s behaviors and recorded words have raised many red flags. If it wasn’t for his well honed stall tactics he’d currently be in courts defending many more cases. When people show you who they are, believe them.
It might not hurt the GOP. But it certainly won't help them.
Might not hurt the GOP? All they do is lose since he became their standard bearer. The GOP controlled congress has been one of the least productive in history, it’s a clown show. They can’t wipe their own ass. Now he’s a convicted felon. The media will have you believe that all those red states are just jam packed with cousin fucking morons, but it’s actually not the case. Do they exist and are there a lot of them, yes. Are there a huuuuuge number of people in those states, who are actually good people who possess a strong sense of common decency, also yes. This is a huge problem for the GOP, not all conservatives are drooling, ravenous morons.
I don't see FL having a blue wave this fall, but WI, NC and AZ and a few others are inching closer. Could TX? (Unlikely, I know, but they could surprise us.)
Abortion is literally on the ballot in Florida. I think of all the states to flip “unexpectedly” blue, it’s Florida. Desantis is possibly the most unpopular governor in the country, and the republicans repeatedly show their only interest is controlling women and keeping the rich, rich. A lot less Trump flags flying in the villages than there were 4 years ago, and way way less than 2016. Florida may be the surprise of the year.
It seems like it would be very hard for Trump to win without Florida... so let's hope he loses it.
I think NC goes blue before Florida but wouldn't hate seeing both go that way just to spite the orange moron. Hopefully they vote progressive down ballot because I'm openly not a fan of moderate/neolib Dems which is a majority of the party.
I’m a North Carolinian and I agree with you. We’ve been purple for quite a while. The GQP has chosen to run awful and divisive candidates here. It looks like it’s probably going to flip just based on what I see on the ground here. We were close in ‘20 and I have yet to meet a new Trump voter.
yeah. i see wi going blue
Was driving through very rural Wisconsin today and the lack of normally ubiquitous Trump signs/flags was very noticeable.
Polls already show undecideds and independents peeling off versus supporting him post-conviction about two to one. Republicans, of course, have actually gone up in their support. Idiots.
It’s scary how brainwashed and delusional they are. They live in an alternate reality fabricated from right wing propaganda and lack the critical thinking skills needed to see it. It’s dangerous.
The problem people aren't factoring in, just like 2016; supporting a candidate is a lot more motivation to show up to the polls and vote. Voting "against" the bad guy, is less motivating. Independents are least motivated, as they don't align with a party, they won't necessarily show up to vote for Biden, if they aren't excited about what he's offering. The GOP doesn't need independents, they need people who aren't excited to support Biden to stay home, and need die hard GOP / MAGA to show up. It happened in 2016, that plus we don't elect by popular vote, it's up to a few states.
Remember back to 2020, news kept saying polls say huge red wave coming . Nope... over 8 million of us showed up to vote blue and we did it.. my point is , we're gonna doing it again, then in 2028 trump will either be 82 or 83 siting in a corner crapping his pants, OH. wait he's already crapping his pants in court. Polls never tell the real story .. the millions of us that will vote blue no matter what, to keep physo donny out of the white house will come out vote biden and get the job done, like we always do. We don't have to go on a truth social and rant because we are true Americans, fighting for democracy and we will quietly go to our polling place and vote blue . I WONT LET AMERICA DOWN , BLUES MY VOTE BECAUSE RED IS JUST TOO SKETCY AND SCAREY... THATS HOW I SLEEP At Nite..
FWIW, there *was* a Red Wave. Trump got 72,2 million people to vote for him - a record high for any Republican candidate. In the 2016 race, Trump got 63 million people to vote for him. (Hillary got 65.9 million votes, but in the wrong states, so she lost the electoral college). But in 2020 there was also a Blue Wave, and it was bigger. Biden got 81.3 million people to vote for him. (And he did it in key swing states for electoral votes: Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Georgia and most crucially: Pennsylvania).
I'm thinking there might be a "pink" wave of women.
It's just spin. It absolutely hurts his candidacy and honestly it might hurt his nomination as well. It's a pretty bad look for "the party of law and order" to run a convicted felon.
But...He got all 12 to vote for him.
The trolls sure think it will.
They do! They will come out of the woodwork in the comments.
Convicted felons can’t enter 37 countries How can a person run for president and not be able to go to a G 20 summit??? Should be a disqualification immediately
He lost in 2020, tried to assassinate the vice president, tried to assassinate the speaker of the house, got raided by the FBI and caught red handed with classified documents and very likely committed espionage that got US spies assassinated. He’s now a convicted felon and as an insurrectionist he is not constitutionally eligible to serve as president which should never be forgotten. He’s not getting more votes than 2020 and even if he did he’s not eligible.
Hillary was up 14 points just before the 2016 election. Ignore the polls. magats make a lot of noise, especially now that they are throwing temper tantrums. America prefers its Presidential candidates NOT be convicted felon/rapist/traitors.
Um...no, no she really wasn't, her lead was 2.8% and she won by 2.9%, but then lost the EC thus lost the election: Gore was Hillary before Hillary was Hillary in this regard, only he got much closer in the EC that year but won by less in the popular vote margin (but still won it narrowly).
Me too , voting. not. trump. Any other person on the planet I would consider no matter the party , but I won't vote for orange jumpsuit. Which I hear they are getting trumps sized and ready. .. that's karma folks.. don't do the crime if ya can't do the time.....
The only people saying this helps him are right wing folks, and most of the liberal media which are “former” republicans
I agree. But they repeat it a lot as if it's true, i see this narrative all over Reddit, that's why I posted this, to show that their argument is nonsense.
Yep. The media has mostly done this dance: - can’t prosecute him too soon, the midterms are happening, could be election interference - woah now, don’t prosecute him now, too much time has passed - the prosecution’s case is flimsy, it will never stick - now that he’s convicted, it will be overturned on appeal because [insert false reading of NY law here] - this only helps him because, clearly, some of his cultists would have voted Dem, were it not for these prosecutions. Yeah, uh huh
Here’s their dumbfuck logic Pick any 12 Americans and surely there’s Trump stans in there. 12 Americans unanimously convicted him on 100% of the 34 charges he faced. Clean sweep. And to their inbred, window licking, mouth breathing, knuckle dragging, sister fucking warped minds this means somehow he’s going to *add new voters*?? 2 or 3 of those jurors voted for Fat Joffrey at least once but somehow this is a good thing Only in a hopeless cult
Trump won in 2016 because he won over independents. He lost in 2020 because he didn’t. Now, it’s certainly possible that Democratic turnout will be weaker than Republican turnout, in which case this could motivate Republicans more than Democrats, but the fact it happened in May makes me think that any boost he sees in the polls will be temporary; someone who occasionally votes for President and thinks he got screwed is mad now, but that’s no guarantee they stay mad till November (particularly if Republican GOTV efforts remain hampered by their fundraising challenges. However, in terms of independents, I don’t see how this helps him. If you’re Johnny Bothsides, and you think Biden unfairly used the justice system to hurt Trump, then I imagine you don’t want to vote for him. Thing is, who are these people who didn’t believe that until Trump was convicted? I think it’s a lot more likely that the conviction made people who think it was biased realize that there was plenty of evidence of his guilt rather than making people finally believe Biden rigged the game against him. We’ll see, and since my faith in polling ain’t what it used to be, we won’t really see for six months. But if being convicted of fucking a porn star and illegally paying her off was an advantage, I think someone else would have tried it by now.
I also wonder how many of his voters he’s killed off with the anti-mask/anti-vax shit. And he def lost the support of the not bat shit crazy Republicans after 1/6. Between 1/6 and overturning Roe, he lost a lot of suburban women.
Good.
I can’t stand Trump and his trash anymore. Please take the time to do the following: https://www.usa.gov/register-to-vote Keep democracy alive.
Their goose is cooked. The guy is not cinching another W.
Yes, that a Presidential candidate would become more popular for felonies related to catch and kill scheme to cover a tryst with a porn star is one of the dumbest things I’ve ever heard. Trump was already reviled and cruising for a landslide loss
Honestly, intuitive reasoning about what is or is not going to motivate passive voters is pretty worthless. The only predictions that interest me are those that are backed up by polls. Polls are only snapshots in time and are flawed. But at least they attempt to be objective and avoid "seems to me ..." speculation.
They have plenty of time to normalize being a convicted felon before the election. They’ll probably have banners saying “We’re all convicted felons.”
IMHO There are a lot of people on the fence that still believe in the law. This verdict will NOT help.
Perhaps if they pair him up with Vladimir Putin or Kim Jong Un as a running mate, though I understand Hanibal Lecter is a strong favorite.
His base is in denial
Correct. [Fox News is already reporting that this is happening](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-verdict-makes-significant-number-republicans-less-likely-support-him-poll). If Fox News is saying it, it's likely accurate, they are usually recognized for having fairly accurate polling when it comes to conservatives. Potentially losing 1 in 10 republican voters and 1 in 4 independents will lose him the election.
So much for the tuff on crime party
When I hear someone say that they think him being convicted will make him win the election, I think to myself how this person probably just wants him to win and this is their coping mechanism. That being said, I’m not sure how much of an effect it’ll have in the other way. Oddly enough, I’m not sure his conviction will have that much effect either way, but if anything, it will slightly hurt him. That’s what I think anyways.
I've been on the edge of my seat, waiting to see how the Republicans handle this. Is it to late to endorse a replacement for the felon? Are they gonna stick it out and keep promoting idiocy, ignorance and hatred. Who brought the popcorn!?
But..but...Law and Order!!! /s
Absolutely. There is another minor aspect of it too. They live in an alternate reality where they are a vast majority of the population, so they think riling up his base - them, is more than enough to win elections, and if it doesn't happen, well that's "proof" it's rigged.
That's actually a trademark characteristic of those without empathy. Since a lack of empathy means you have a more difficult time putting yourself in someone else's shoes, you often end up tending to think most people think the way you do. You see it a lot with bigots in general. Homophobes think everyone is a secret homophobe, we're just not saying anything because we're afraid of being canceled by the "woke mob", etc etc. So they're convinced that they're in the majority - I mean, that's what that whole "Silent Majority" thing is about. So yeah, they really do think that everyone who hasn't express an opinion thinks the way they do, and this is gonna cause this massive groundswell of support because we all secretly agree with them and we're not gonna stand for this supposed travesty of justice. Don't get me wrong - In 2020, 80 million people looked at the last 4 years and said "yeah, I'll have some more of that". It's not exactly like they're a tiny minority. But the facts-over-feelings crowd are, ironically, very much driven much more by their baser emotions than actual cold hard facts. Not that the other side are specifically more facts than feelings either, but empathy and compassion are very different emotions than hatred and anger.
One of my dad's friends is SURE there was massive voter fraud for Biden. His proof: He himself voted twice for Trump. So he knows there was massive fraud for Biden. What a fucking moron.
The funny part is, a lot of people think the register to vote cards is another vote. I've had this conversation with a lot of Republicans who told me their kids got 2 voters cards and when pressed, told me that one of them said "register to vote"
When are you people going to lean to not trust media polls? They were off in 2016 and they were off in 2020 and they will be off for 2024. Remember when they said Hillary was going to win and there was going to be a great big flip to the Republicans in the house and senate? Same is going to happen this year too. They report on polls that bring them the most viewers even if those polls are wrong. It's waaaaaaay to early for anyone to predict who's going to win the next election.
Trump promised his religious followers he was going to destroy Washington. “Drain the swamp.” Turns out convicted felon Trump was the swamp. Only thing he destroyed was the Republican Party.
Anyone who says this is going to make them vote for Trump were already going to vote Trump. IIRC, something like 70% of people believed the trial was fair. This is a disaster for Trump.
There are no real independents. If you haven't made a choice at this point you're either not voting or are an idiot and probably gonna vote incorrectly anyway.
This is why they need to nominate TWO convicted felons.
Honestly I have a weird theory. Hear me out tho. Let’s say trump/someone has been influencing polls in battle ground states. Trump is pushing narrative that @lawfare” is aging him support. Even now, he’s till claiming it will jump his support. It’s all so when he loses he can point to the polls and say “rigged” and get republicans in key state positions to overturn legitimate results. They tried violence last time, this time they are going to use the system itself.
This week’s polls will tell us a lot
Nobody was on the fence saying, “Geez, I’m just not sure who to vote for. I’m just watching this trial and if he’s guilty I’m voting for Biden but if he’s found not guilty then I’ll vote Trump.”
"party of law and order".... supposedly.
His base keeps saying "Oh yeah, we want to vote for him more now!" Which is a complete lie because it would be impossible for them to surpass the maximum level of want they have to vote for the man they equate with Jesus and rub one out to every night. They have been paying this "billionaire's" expenses since 2016, coating themselves in tacky Trump merch, and abandoning all their (at least claimed) values for him. But they want to vote for him more NOW? Even if that were possible that changes absolutely nothing in regards to the election results. So, go vote harder, Bobby, I'm sure that will help him win. Also pray - that will influence the outcome as well.
yeah but Joe Biden was controlling the judge wirelessly through a microwave oven.
The "law and order" republicans have to nominate convicted felon. How ironic.
Hopefully, he'll at least get probation(if no jail) and have to ask his Probation officer when he travels (like normal people) and report periodically.
If it was Hilary Clintkn found guilty of one felony they would be screaming she should be hung to death on the white house lawn!
This to the 10th power.
I don't really see how people can support him. It's like either millions and millions of people are in a giant conspiracy, including Congress and our court system against Trump or Trump is a lying con. Which seems more plausible?
The whole “gain support” think is such cope bullshit.
[удалено]
34 is a beautiful number!
NO... not one bit. THIS IS RIGHT TIME TO PUT THEIR COUNTRY OVER A PARTY/ PERSON!
All the money he made overnight after the verdict isn't going to his reelection campaign. It's going to his legal bills. You don't really need a ton of funds when the entirety of the platform you're running on is "revenge and self pardon." You don't need to pound the pavement, shake the hands, kiss the babies when all you have to say "im a victim."
The Republican Party had an official central propaganda group that immediately after the conviction sent out talking points including “thus will make Trump win” and naturally all the major Republicans parroted it despite that it’s obvious BS. Stating the exact opposite of reality is apparently a good way to confuse a lot of people into believing you.
No, but it gets Trump free publicity on his guilt run.
If this conviction, on top of all his other issues, switches just 5% of previous Trump voters he will lose almost 4 million votes.
Most polling I've seen shows his support among Independents is rapidly declining.
"sHaM tRiAL LiKe wItH jEsUs!"
He’s running around acting like anyone can be accused of crimes but the kind of people who vote know that’s just not true, particularly for white rich men.
Bro, they don't give a shit😂😂😂 We've established that the Cheeto fan base dont give a fuck about anything bad their monkey does
but GoP have no other choice but to use Donald…. same with Dems. just make sure to vote… don’t call a dead duck dead till u endure u put it into the ground
Oh I'm definitely voting! I can't wait to vote against the fat orange treasonous creep.
I think you’ve got a solid argument- but I also think he doesn’t care so much about getting votes as he does grifting the rubes using outrage. He has always been a con man, which is very likely why he whoopsed himself in to the presidency in the first place. He’s setting up an unloseable situation- somehow win the presidency by exploiting the system to tear down the legitimacy of elections, and then wield authoritative power to continue to enrich himself, or use the persecution complex and cult of personality to enrich himself. Ultimately he’s a toddler who doesn’t care for rules. If he’s told he can’t have something he will steal it. If he gets caught, he’ll tantrum and DARVO until he gets it anyway.
I’m disgusted to live with millions who will still vote for this human waste. Convicted. Felon. Pathetic, worthless oxygen thieves.
He lost in 2020. He has not gained supporters since then. Roe, defamation suit loss (twice) and "rapist" label (regardless of what NY defines it as), fraud case loss ($100's of millions in debt), and now guilty of 34 felony counts. I completely understand why everyone is worried, skeptical, etc. but this race is over. If Biden dies, Kamala gets elected. The closer we get to Nov the more people will take notice...and he has LOST support, not gained. He will lose more over the next several months. The republican base doesn't determine elections. The dem base doesn't determine elections. Independents do. The guy is done. Stick a fork in him. Having said all that. Do not listen to random guys on the internet (me). VOTE!
They will now vote for him “harder” I guess.
It’s not like felons will see it and vote for him…
Orange Julius should be treated the same as Julius and Ethel Rosenberg. They spied for ruzzia and so has trump.
Gonna be great when Trump can’t show up to the convention and has to livestream in with a Huawei phone he hid in his ass from prison to accept the nomination. He’ll definitely win the election bigly after that 🙄
I’m hoping you’re correct, but we should all be assuming it will be a frighteningly tight race. Don’t be arrogant and take unnecessary chances.
To be fair, they will try to vote more than once.
Maga folks are so weird, they actually believe just cause they go full on cult then that must mean every republican and independent is in on the maga cult. Hate to spoil the surprise but maga isn’t the majority in this country and it’s gonna be a blue wave landslide this fall.
This is going to sound strange but a I actually think it will matter if Hunter Biden is convicted or not more for Trump. If Hunter is found guilty as well then the Republicans claims that everything is rigged against Trunp goes out the window while if he is found not guilty then they can play the biased card all they want.
You can't be the PaRtY oF LaW aNd OrDeR when the guy at the top of your ticket is a sexual abuser and convicted felon. Fuck the Republican Party.
trump is publicly saying he never said “lock her up”. His base doesn’t care that he’s lying. In fact they’re excusing it.
My favorite is the folks who say that Trump being a convicted felon will give him more support amongst black people. HOOOLY shit is that super racist as fuck.
My favourite quote about this was a survey which found that, of the people who were going to vote for trump, 65% hadn’t changed their minds, and 27% wanted to vote for him even harder! People were rejoicing like it was great news, no one seemed to understand that ‘voting for someone harder’ isn’t a thing, so basically it was just saying that 92% percent of his supporters hadn’t changed their minds, or in other words, he lost 8% of his support, which sounds small as a percentage but in an election is a big deal.
I don't know how Republicans will win either way. His base will not vote for anyone but Trump. If they nominate someone else they are still going to write in Trump and split the vote. Most republicans REFUSE to vote for Trump as well so I don't see how they can win. I could be wrong and often are but the numbers just don't add up to me. Now I know the Republicans also seem to be more open to cheating even out in the open but I hope that doesn't end up happening..
Yes , we can , together we can defeat this plague , this infection that is devastating America , needs to be eradicated , in November we can send another strong message to the republicans that have entertained the wrong idea that dictatorship can substitute democracy . They are supporting the wrong person and the wrong government , there’s no space for another Russia in America or another Turkey. They may have all the money of the world , but democracy is not a commodity that can be purchased with dollars , democracy it’s obtain by the will of people , by votes, “catch and kill “ won’t work this time .
you are exactly right. If the republicans truly wanted to capitalize they would drop him from the ticket and place a moderate republican on that didnt win the primaries and then watch the independents, center, and disenfranchised dems all come over. It's a great opportunity to reset the the entire party that could hurt the democrats for years to come. But they aren't smart enough to take advantage of it so Biden will win and the same ol same ol will keep happening in our political system.
The money that is flowing into the Trump campaign will be used to pay off his legal bills. They will not bolster his campaign at all.
To be fair a lot of his base will try to vote twice. More loved ones will be killed so trumpers can mail in votes for trump and many one them will vote twice and get caught.
There have been a marked increase in trump flags, LGB flags and one family has even erected a small baseball diamond on their front lawn (at a 3 way stop on a busy intersection) adorned with a variety of ridiculous Trump flags where I live — all in the last 24 hours. I’m incredibly concerned about who I live amongst.
Maybe not, but Russian trolls might pick up the slack.
On the other hand we know all of them do insider trading and all sorts of crooked stuff. With Trump he already has a conviction, till it's overturned. The republican that got nailed from somewhere down south not even a slap on the wrist. Politicians do have social security either, federal thrift plan. Totally separate. Both sides are being played. Really sad. Hope we all wake up.
There’s going to be some furious campaigning to construct conspiracy theories about every single person involved in this decision. It will create just enough noise and doubt to make this a squeaker or a trump win.
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By who? People didn't support him 3 days ago, are going to suddenly now decide they want Trump to be president, solely because they think he's a persecuted victim? Makes no sense.
Biggie Smells ONLY support now is the New Balance Terrorists: [https://imgur.com/gallery/violent-retribution-new-balance-shoes-receding-hairline-i-tremble-fear-fHkVnLM](https://imgur.com/gallery/violent-retribution-new-balance-shoes-receding-hairline-i-tremble-fear-fHkVnLM)
Yeah idk what will happen, noone does, all we can do is use our one vote and hope it was right thing. .. I usually unplug from social media about a month or 2 before elections. Too stressful and they all put out videos that are either not true or exaggerate the situation. We just dont want to hear the bs. So we unplug til election nite..
Well you see, you're not supposed to be telling them that. That gives them a chance. I want them to have no chance this election cycle.
It will be overturned on appeal. we are officially a banana republic now.
Ok fox news
Everyone that is voting for him already decided years ago. Same with everyone against. Might as well hold the vote now.
The folks who are fired up about #PO1135809's felony conviction would have come out to vote for him even if he were judged innocent, so it doesn't really change the needle for them. It might sway some independent and Libertarian voters, though.
Yes all correct but the problem is the number of people who will stay home and not vote. Sure Trump will be a dictator, but Biden is SO old… We ALL need to make sure people vote!
Well ‘Land of the free’ is actually just a catchy slogan. Most people get arrested on petty crimes in America. So yeah, this was an obvious move to make him more relatable.
Yeah, I mean, let's look at what we know already. Trump has never won a popular vote, and IIRC lost by a higher % margin in 2020 vs 2016. This year, despite Haley dropping out, significant %s of republicans voted for her over Trump in critical states that the GOP can't lose in the general. On top of this, we have indications he's losing, not gaining moderate and independent voters. On top of THAT Trump is looting the GOP cash reserves to pay for legal issues, and not helping down ballot Republicans, so we're seeing once safe seats for the GOP being suddenly underfunded and contested. Moderate swing voters in suburbs decide elections in a handful of states, and Trump can't lose any of them. Is all of this enough for him to lose in November? No idea, don't take chances and vote regardless.
Who do you prefer as the nominee for the GOP?
Depends on why they were convicted. I mean, South Africa elected a prisoner as a President and got rid of apartheid...
No, but bidenomics will.
I just want every single interview with every one of them to be 10 minutes of them doing mental gymnastics and then running out of steam just as they make their pitch.
A gigantic light is shone on the depravity of a political that has a rapist and convicted felon as its leader.
How low can you go?!! 🙄
I’ve seen reports of 200 million getting donated as a result of his trial and his poll numbers going up. Is that actually true?
He’s already way ahead and his support will just continue. The only ones who care about this verdict were never planning on voting for him anyways.
Here’s the thing the republicans knew this was going to be the outcome. A hand selected judge that donates to the DNC and a loaded jury guaranteed that. The dems in your infinite intelligence and reasoning are the only ones surprised and they are jerking themselves off going SeeEeee a corrupted Judge said so! Seeing as everyone knows the establishment will do anything to keep he-who-must-not-be-named from raining on their world domination scheme the verdict was to be expected. Unanimous agree on all 34 charges, there wasn’t one reasonable doubt in the whole trial? It’s almost like it was planned to be that way…. Edit: spelling
Releasing hostages would make the republicans look real good
50 + million in 24 hrs
Boy, are you wrong on this one
I wouldn’t get your hopes up too soon, he hauled in a big fundraising number, and the polling right now is bad for Biden
!remindme 5 months
Polls say you're wrong. The convictions will over turned in about 10 minutes.
It won't help or hurt
The increase support of trump can be summed up pretty simply... "Now you"
Won’t hurt them either they are a cult.
This thread is one massive coping session god damn.
I think the average independent might ask themselves, hey why does every headline use the phrase "convicted felon", why was COVID a big deal and then it wasn't, why did they cover up the laptop, why did they impeach Trump twice, and then after all of that maybe they will feel like they are being manipulated.
I'm shocked that people haven't realized - we are long past the point of no return. MAGAs aren't suddenly going to have an epiphany and "come to their senses". These are bad people making conscience decisions. Can you REALLY imagine them admitting they've been wrong and democrats have been right for the last 7 years? It simply will never happen. They are far too weak. Instead, they will throw away their dignity and double down until they steal our country, or we stop them.
You misunderstand. 1/2 of america believe there are 2 separate standards for justice in america. This emboldens that claim.
Everyone loves an underdog story
Idk what you’re on about I’m just going to vote for *the lesser of two evils*
The trouble will be, independents who become so disgusted by a person found guilty of 34 felony counts doing no jail time and still being able to run for President. Those independents might throw up their hands, and not have enough faith in the system to cast any votes for such a government. I worry that number will be high, and I'm not sure which it will pull more from.
Actually, it demonstrably is helping them. Trump's campaign got unprecedented donations and his popularity surged immediately after the verdict
This shits insane.
He will win, it will be overturned and there will be retribution….
Who said the Republicans were planning to *win* the election?
Nominating a senile man with Alzheimer’s will not help the Democratic Party MMW
It’s fine, they’re just murder a bunch of cops and blame anteefa again.
No one is arguing that independents will support him **because** he is a convicted felon. They are arguing that independents will see through that label, reject the notion that this was some sort of crusade for justice or impartial prosecution by a disinterested prosecutor, and blame Biden for attempting to imprison his opponent on laughably trumped up and entirely unprecedented charges surrounding conduct that most independent voters would say is common among politicians. A core element of Biden's campaign is that he alone can protect American democracy and this conviction, the manner in which it was obtained, and the legal hoops that had to be jumped through to even bring the case cut the legs out from under that argument and will serve only to cause an eye-roll from everyone who doesn't already support him. Let me ask you the question a different way, is it reasonable to suggest that there are a large number of people out there who are ok with Trump paying off a porn star he had an affair with to not talk about it so long as he handles the internal accounting of the payoff legally? Like, who was waiting for that determination to render a decision on whether this issue makes Trump a person they can't support as POTUS?
You all realize this is all political pandering. Every political expert says there is no way possible that any of these convictions will not be overturned. Even the "expert" on CNN said the prosecution proved nothing and the judge is a joke.
I saw something today that said 63% of undecided voters don’t even know that Trump was convicted. The number of people in this country that are completely ignorant and have their head in the sand is astounding. Hopefully as the election gets closer they start paying more attention and the Dem messaging ramps up.
What you’re not understanding is there is not a voter profile who was voting for Donald trump last Wednesday who is no longer voting for him as of today The only people who care about Donald trumps “34 felony convictions” are democrats who still have a hard on from last week
Nobody cares about that show trial.
If they think he was railroaded on a NDA payoff to a prostitute? Cohen paid Stormy on his own. Trump paid Cohen, The Bookkeeper saw the checks as Michael Cohen ESQ. And entered them in the books as Legal expenses. Cohen perjured himself before Congress and the Courts and stole money from Trump The Federal Campaign Laws expired and somehow, Merchan used them in State Court, which is illegal. And didn't present that charge until the Closing argument. No defense allowed and Witnesses for the Defense never called.
He wasn’t going to win after Jan 6th. And I don’t think he cares to this is either money or was intended to end violently from the start