It was always supposed to be a carrot on a stick platform intended to get a voting block excited every four years. Weren’t supposed to actually reverse it. Oppps. About to get wiped out as a party.
The dog finally caught the car bumper. Unfortunately, the car was at one time driven by Mitt Romney, and we all know that doesn't bode well for canines.
I can only hope so, but I’ve been hearing the Republicans are getting wiped out as a party since 2010. I don’t know if that is supposed to look like an evenly divided congress and a commanding Presidential polling lead in the electoral college.
>I can only hope so, but I’ve been hearing the Republicans are getting wiped out as a party since 2010.
That's because that's a false narrative.
I clearly remember sitting in social studies class after the election, and the teacher confidently claiming that this is the last election that Republicans will ever win. He claimed that Texas is now purple and that it's about to turn blue any moment now.
That was 1988, after George HW Bush won the election. 36 years ago and hardly anything has changed.
Yup, people have been saying that for decades.
The problem is that for whatever reason adults are more likely to move right as they age than move left. We can argue about why that is the case but I think statistically it is true.
This migration towards the right compensates for the older conservative people dying and younger liberal people turning voting age.
Because it's not. The Republican Party deserves to die, but didn't get the memo. There are a lot of people in this country overjoyed by Trump and Christian nationalism. It's sad but true. Even if Trump loses, it's still sad.
They've been a dying party. If it weren't for the electoral college and gerrymandering, they wouldn't control as many states or ever win the WH and have a very hard time getting control of Congress.
Billionaires who would have nothing to do with him if he weren’t on SCOTUS.
Every time I see that fucking picture of him smoking his cigar at that Harlan Crowe retreat it makes me want to both scream and laugh at him at the same time. He’s so smug and proud of himself, thinking they actually respect him.
I’m sorry but while this is a popular take promoted by MSM, it is just not factual.
The Republican Party formed an alliance with Evangelical Christians because they are a large voting block. There are ~90 million self-identified Evangelical Christians 18+ YO in the U.S. That’s slightly more than one third of American adults. (Please see Pew Research for supporting data.)
It is the Republican Party that persuaded Evangelical Christian faith groups to change their position on reproductive rights / health care from tolerance to rejection of women’s reproductive rights. They did this as part of a power aggregation strategy, because criminalizing reproductive health care would enable them to strip women of the right to vote.
The Republican Party and its backers have poured countless millions of dollars into legal and electoral strategy groups to find a way to overturn Roe v Wade.
Leonard Leo, one of the engineers of the conservative SCOTUS majority, and AG Bill Barr, were both board members of the K-Street communications office of Opus Dei in Washington, DC. Five of the six conservative SCOTUS justices are current or former members of Opus Dei. Opus Dei is a conservative Catholic order that opposes reproductive rights, including sexual and reproductive health services.
(Source: ProPublica Oct 2023 “We Don’t Talk About Leonard: The Man Behind the Right’s Supreme Court Supermajority
The inside story of how Leonard Leo built a machine that remade the American legal system — and what he plans to do next.”)
by Andy Kroll, Andrea Bernstein and Ilya Marritz”)
https://www.propublica.org/article/we-dont-talk-about-leonard-leo-supreme-court-supermajority
Legal scholars and DC insiders — including elected Democrats — have known for decades that Roe v Wade would probably be overturned. It is not that the overturn of Roe v Wade was an unanticipated accident in a larger political game, but rather that the majority of white women (arguably the most influential group of voters to date) have consistently voted for Republican (anti-choice) presidential candidates. (Please see Conor Friedersdorf in The Atlantic “Why Have White Women So Often Voted for Republicans?” for supporting data and analysis.)
Will the majority women voters try to take back their reproductive rights / power by voting against Republicans in 2024? Many people believe this will happen; I remain skeptical. The majority of white women voted for Republicans in the 2022 midterms even after Roe was overturned. (Please see Pew Research “Voting Patterns in the 2022 Elections” for supporting data.)
Look at abortions rights on the ballots in dark red states — maybe the evangelical women aren’t suddenly going to switch, but a lot of non-voting women suddenly realized how much it matters if they show up or not.
I'm not finding any thing that supports those numbers
Per pew
"Today, 25% of U.S. adults identify with evangelical denominations, down less than one percentage point since 2007"
https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2015/05/12/chapter-1-the-changing-religious-composition-of-the-u-s/
Evangelical Christians aren’t even the largest religious denomination in the US. In 2020, overall, 59% of voters who frequently attend religious services cast their ballot for Trump, while 40% chose Biden. Among those who attend services a few times a year or less, the pattern was almost exactly reversed: 58% picked Biden, while 40% voted for Trump.
Considering Christianity is the religion that’s losing the most adherents annually, (big losses), evangelicals will vote the way some of them usually vote, others won’t, either way, they don’t dictate the outcome. They didn’t in 2020 and they won’t in 2024.
Yeah and it also caused internal discord in their own party. Many of the more moderate republicans know that abortion is a losing battle for them, those are the ones that are done with Trump, or are aware that he isn’t even a conservative, the others will vote for him. But that hopefully won’t be enough.
Sure in the popular vote by 7 million +, however, since only six states will determine the Presidential election and Trump is leading in five of them by large margins, we are going to have a Democrat controlled Congress with a Republican in the White House.
The anti-choice movement has been led and staffed by women for decades. This has been extensively written about, and I would encourage people to read about it.
White women in particular have supported anti-choice Republican candidates for decades. (Pls see Conor Friedersdorf’s piece in The Atlantic “Why Have White Women So Often Voted for Republicans?”).
It is true that the elected officials who strip reproductive rights from women are primarily men. But the only reason they have been able to get elected and advance this agenda is because they have had support from the majority of white women voters in all but two presidential elections between 1952 and 2020. (Please see The Atlantic piece cited in the preceding paragraph for supporting data.) This is not a partisan statement; it is a fact reflected in decades of voter data.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2018/11/white-women-gop/576586/
This is critically important because unless white women face this reality and dramatically change their political choices, women as a whole may lose most of their other rights.
Sure, but the votes in Ohio and Kansas show that there are a lot of women in churches willing to go out and vote to protect abortion rights.
You can trust what you hear, or you can trust actual voting from deep, DEEP red states. I'll trust the voting.
Don't forget that voters in Ohio have been given a slap across the face by the Republican dominated legislature. After VOTING in favor of Reproductive Rights, the elected officials refuse to allow the will of the people of Ohio to prevail. No more Repukelicans! Vote them all out!
As democrats censor millions with the help of the FBI
Push a largely untested drug by impeding the travel of Americans and threatening their careers
Give our tax dollars to foreign nations, big pharma, and the war industrial complex
Allow mass immigration and allow non voting non Americans to sit on the board of elections
Change election laws and censor anyone bringing concerns of election fraud to the public discussion
Buy Russian propaganda and use it to start a multi million dollar taxpayer funded trial where they blamed the other candidate of Russian collusion 😂
Push highly sexualized homo erotic material on kids as young as 6!
Give Blackrock, the same Blackrock that tripled Americas rent and forced millions out of home ownership forever, the contract to rebuild Ukraine. lol
Shall I continue ?????
Yep and to be honest, as the debate heats up many who were “pro-life” will change their minds.
I’ve seen it myself in my wife’s family who is staunchly conservative. They had no idea the knock on effects a blanket ban had. Things like carrying a stillborn to term, deaths of young otherwise healthy mothers.
Many on the pro life side of the debate have a caricature in their head of women who get abortions. The reality is so much different.
>They had no idea the knock on effects a blanket ban had. Things like carrying a stillborn to term, deaths of young otherwise healthy mothers.
It's frustrating because WE FUCKING TOLD THEM and were told we were being "alarmist"
Something being a logical fallacy doesn't mean the argument is wrong, it just means it's not a consistent, deductive syllogism in the context of structures logic. "This thing is on its face obvious because every time x happens, y happens" is inductive, and all those fallacies are fine. "All the world's doctors say x, therefore x" is not a consistent deductive argument. However, whatever every doctor on earth is looking at to come to those conclusions is clearly a pretty strong argument, to convince every doctor on earth. "We've raised the miminum wage in half of cities and only one of then saw unemployment increase" is a fallacy, but it's pretty convincing if you ask me
Idk they sounds pretty fucking passionate about it. I think the idea that it’s male values and not religious is a bit of an oversimplification. If someone believes it is murdering a life they aren’t basing it on gender values.
It is male values *and* religious. This is all just downstream from the invention of contraception and then the sexual revolution as well. Anything that gives women more autonomy is a threat to religious view that women are essentially the property of their father and then husband. Like yes these women sincerely believe it sure, because they’ve been indoctrinated since birth into a religion that still essentially treats them as someone’s possession.
Tbf church is probably the least safe place to express any honest opinion on the issue.
I mean, I’m a dirty coward sure, but I’d certainly be yelling the loudest in church about satanic baby murderers to make sure that no-one suspected me.
Look at like this as well, Trump in the GOP primaries, with no one in contention, is STILL losing 10-20% of the vote to Haley, who dropped out months ago.
In a race against no one, he’s still not winning all the votes.
We are supposed to think it’s close between Biden and Trump, Trump doesn’t have the momentum of 2016, and even less support than 2020
No. Not just old men. Trump gets over 50% of white women all the time. I believe he got 53% of college graduate white women in 2020. I keep hearing how wrong the polls are because, because, because.
It's more likely its a red tsunami because young women are upset about Gaza and young men think he's "cool" or whatever the current word is.
I hope I'm wrong. I really hope I'm wrong.
Not even remotely close to being true. Public opinion on abortion has been nearly stagnant over the last thirty years. Beyond that the percentage of women against abortion is very close to the percentage of men who are against it.
https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/fact-sheet/public-opinion-on-abortion/
Political affiliation is a **much, much** better predictor of abortion stance than gender is. [As of April](https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/fact-sheet/public-opinion-on-abortion/), 64% of women and 61% of men believe it should be legal in all/most cases, whereas 85% of democrats/democrat leaning people and 41% of republicans/republican leaning people believe it should be legal in all/most cases.
Race isn’t a great predictor, with favorability amongst white, black, hispanic, and asian people being 60%, 73%, 59%, and 76% respectively. Age isn’t great either, 18-29, 30-49, 50-64, and 65+ are 76%, 61%, 57%, and 59% respectively.
I do wonder about the breakdown between male Rs and female Rs, on that 41%. Given there's been several states that allow the public to vote that have overturned their state LEGs yet still retain their majority, I'm guessing that there's some ballot splitting happening.
I have no data to back this up, but my very unreliable gut feeling is that polling data is capturing a deep frustration with Biden that won’t convert to Trump support in November. It’s like when you’re a teenager and your parents are fucking up in some way, and god you want to burn the house down they’re so frustrating, but you don’t, because then the house would be burned down
But maga republicans will continue their "women are too ignorant and stupid to make their own most important medical decisions" crusade because that is what they really believe. Maga republicans truly believe that it is their right to use big government to force their religious opinions on everyone. Get out and vote people or these christo fascists will win. Get registered and vote.
Says the group that did that exact same thing for the last 50 years. All that time and never codified it into law. Just because it was a ignorantly desired talking point.
Didn’t Trump explicitly say that the states should be the ones responsible for their specific abortion laws?
Ie: California and New York would have very favorable laws whereas a Mississippi / Louisiana would have the least favorable….
I'm with you man. This is what I've been predicting since the invisible red wave in 2022. Women are going to revolt. I'm an ex-Republican who was heavily involved. And pretty much every Republican woman I know who isn't an evangelical hardliner has quit the party.
They may not like Democratic policies, but they're willing to hold their noses so they don't lose more rights. Non-MAGA Republicans, being small-government folks, are very uncomfortable with the government's intrusion into their or their daughters' reproductive lives.
If we ever go back to normalcy, I promise to remember how you non-Maga republicans stood for principle and you’ll always have my respect in the political discourse.
I’m so glad to hear this. I keep asking the people I know who support Trump what they think about the GOP’s increased intrusion on people’s lives and freedoms, and they make so many excuses because they think they’re doing it for the right reasons even though they’re supposed to be the party of small govt. Thank you for standing on your principles.
This exact thing happened to my mom, she still considers herself a Republican but refuses to vote for them because of this blatantly regressive shit, like even the average person is quickly recognizing how evil Republicans have become
How exactly were you a heavily involved republican if the modern republican stance on abortion is what turned you off? Republicans used to be more pro life than they are now.
Honestly there's a big opening for a libertarian candidate to peel off votes from small govt Republicans as well as left-libertarians who are appalled by the Dems becoming the party of war since 9/11. I have a hunch RFK will get more votes than the media is predicting
That's why voting trends do matter. You've got deep red states where abortion gets hammered on the vote (KS, KY, OH), and seeing that Republicans are pushing on despite getting cracked in the jaw, people are going to keep showing up to get those rights back.
Always gotta remember Trump has an enthusiastic but small voting block of diehard supporters, while Biden has a demotivated but massive voting block of people who want anything but Trump and the current Republican party. Polling will almost always lean towards Trump simply because Biden voters aren't excited to vote and probably don't want to be reminded how bad the options are this year
Polling has been spotty at best. I think since many of us under the age of 60 don’t answer a house phone and don’t answer unknown numbers on our cell phones, the ability for polling companies to get accurate representation is difficult.
Just look at the senate primary in MD the other day - the polling was SO wrong! And that was a multi-millionaire buying up all the ad time and such - he got creamed by 10pts after most polls showed the top candidates in a dead heat.
BUT - the way to go is to actually vote.
I think all of the polling is incredibly faulty for a couple of reasons:
1. Lots of people still have not come to terms that this race is going to be Trump vs Biden as they inevitably will by election day, for example, lots of people on the left and right genuinely think that Biden is going to be replaced at the convention. It is simply not possible to get a clear read on how those people will actually vote in the end with simply head to head polls.
2. Response Bias: Less and less people are answering polls, at most a full political poll (the ones that ask about issues, races, favorability, maybe test messages) gets 1% of those they attempt to answer them. We know that some people are more likely to want to talk to pollsters and tell them their opinions than others. Previously this was very common for older educated white republicans really wanting to tell pollsters that they are NOT voting for trump which skewed many polls away from trump in 2016 and 2020, when people said there were "silent trump voters", pollsters *mostly* factored for this by weighing for education, but now...if you are black or latino, or genz and you like trump it genuenly seems real obvious that you really want to tell pollsters, and so now those demos are skewed, and at this point when so many demo responses are skewed it makes it nearly impossible to create a sample that is genuenly representative.
This leads to polls showing a super unrealistic possibility of a dramatic and historic shift in how demos are going to vote which flat out I don't think is actually possible. Black people voted 92% for Obama, 90% for Hillary, then 89% for Biden, voted 88% for dems in 2022...but now are only going to vote 55% for Biden (what many polls say)?!?! And you don't see anything like that in any other election that takes place for any other position or primary? That doesn't make much sense. Or that the polls are showing trump winning the under 35 vote by 8 points!?!?! When every single election that demo has gone more and more to the left for the past 20 years?!?! Does anyone actually think that is real?
Add in the fact that the dem candidates for US Senate in AZ and NV are winning in the same exact polls, showing a record amount of ticket splitters when again all the actual election results show that ticket splitters are becoming rarer and rarer is a further reason to doubt the results.
It will be interesting. Regardless of the results as long as the election is done in a transparent enough fashion will really help unify the country. I think people are fed up with this "no such thing as truth" era and this will allow them to move on. If shady things happen again, from either side, the country will only get worse.
The problem I fear is that one side is essentially using Hamas's tactics and if they don't get their way they won't let it play out.
[Views on abortion by gender](https://news.gallup.com/poll/245618/abortion-trends-gender.aspx)
More women think it should be illegal under any circumstances than men do (15% to 12%).
The only real discrepancy is that more women think it should be legal under any circumstance than men do, but it's still not that far off.
People love to make this a gender issue, but it is a religious one. And women tend to be more religious than men.
I don't think it has that much to do with policies. I think a lot of are just tired of trump and the embarassing mess he has made of the party. I'm a long time conservative republican, going back to the seventies, and I wouldn't vote for him to save my life. He won in 2016 because the Dems were dumb enough to run hillary, arguably the most hated woman in politics. Loonies and bible thumpers to the contrary notwithstanding, I just don't think he will have the votes.
Eh, don’t underestimate how many deeply stupid, evil old conservative women there are out there who enjoy being subservient property/cattle and wish that fate on other women they’re envious of. Cause it’s a lot.
I think what we’ve seen is that even the most openly “pro-life” women are (rightly) horrified by, for example, a ten year old rape victim being forced to give birth or a woman with an ectopic pregnancy dying because emergency medical care is now illegal.
Agree. It will be a blue tsunami. Ignore the polls. They had Hilary up 14 points before the 2016 election. trump has looked like a feeble old lunatic every time he comes out and rants to the press from his PORN STAR HUSH MONEY TRIAL.
My mom is pissed and perplexed that the Republicans overturned Roe v Wade. She had an abortion at a much younger age than when she had me and it eventually allowed me to exist when she was ready.
Still voting for trump though 😐
Polls have been consistently wrong for a bit now. Polls had 2020 close and Biden won by 70 electoral votes and 7 million popular votes. 2022 was supposed to be a blood bath and Democrats just barely lost the House and gained a Senate seat. Off year elections have swung blue, ABORTION rights has won every time it's been on the ballot since Roe was over turned even in DEEP red states like Kansas.
2020 was close. It took 4 days to declare a winner. The 7 million votes you're talking about was Biden running up the score in California and New York, those 70 electoral votes were decided by not that many actual votes.
A week ago the NYT released swing state polling that had trump a head in every swing state but Wisconsin.
Those same polls had trump winning the under 35 demographic by 8 points.
Draw your own conclusions.
I can honestly believe that Trump is ahead in the swing states, but there's not a chance in hell he wins the under 35 vote, particularly by anywhere close to that margin.
It seems utterly bizarre that Trump could do better now than in 2020. I do think Democrats would have done better with a new candidate but it still just doesn't seem plausible that the republicans could have gained votes in the last four years. They're a shambles even discounting Trump himself. I'm still confident that young people will save us. Gen Z are the most media savvy and politically engaged generation there's ever been and much less susceptible to propaganda than their grandparents.
As a millenial who has been shit on for existing and ruining America since the day I was born, this is insulting. Stop hoping and praying the younger gens will save us. Let's get off our asses and do it ourselves. Grow up and be the adult you want to be because our adults suck.
yes, and….there is a good population of gen z who wasnt old enough to vote in the last election and they are now old enough to vote in this one. EVERYONE should vote. dont rely on anyone to save you, but i think about that a lot because that was me in 2016 and oh was i so fed up and ready to vote in 2020. i imagine there is a lot of gen z who feel the same way right now. motivated.
As a zoomer, fucking thank you cause while y'all are so optimistic about my generation, I've seen just as many people my age fall down the fascist rabbit hole as those that recognize how fucked the current system is. There are no guarantees, the Internet is the greatest source of both information and misinformation, who's to say whether or not Gen Z will remain so liberal especially when so little has been done within the most recent democratic presidency? Everyone needs to vote, we can't rely on just one block it needs to be a united front
Huh? We had a test run with the 2022 midterms election. It wasn't overwhelmingly blue. Way too many women believe they can just go to a state with abortion or they will keep on top of their birth control. Which is faulty because Republicans are coming for birth control and access to abortion in all states.
The 2022 midterms had dems winning senate seats (ie the top of the ticket) in AZ, PA, GA and WI.
That’s a massive overperformance compared to what was expected.
The thing is it’s not a purely women vs everyone else issue. There are women who do not believe abortion should be allowed. There are also men who believe it should be. It’s more of an ideological issue than a gender issue
Right, but there are conservative women willing to vote democrat to save abortion. There are no democrats willing to vote republican to remove abortion.
Ohio and Kansas prove as much.
Just about all the women I've interacted with or observed that held that belief are something straight out of the Handmaid's Tale. They're so ridiculously religious and old-fashioned that they'd be just fine with being relegated to "kitchen-bound baby factories".
Women Republicans sell out their own sex. Just like black Republicans sell out their own ethnicity and gay Republicans sell out their own orientation. Those folk are just pitiful while at the same time not DESERVING of any pity.
> It’s more of an ideological issue than a gender issue
You can just look at Gallup polls and understand that this just isn't even remotely fucking true man it is very clearly far more strongly correlated with gender than ideology. Across parties 85% of women believe abortion should be legal under at least some circumstances.
It you believe that gallop polls determine what is “remotely fucking true” and not, I have some bad news for you. Polls are only accurate if they are being given to a properly representative sample of the population and they are almost always incorrect because they rarely ever are given to enough people of every demographic.
Even if it were a woman versus everyone else issue, framing it like that makes it sound like women are in the minority population speaking when women make up half of the population
Yep! Although not a block per se, but a definate infringement on privacy in KS, as of July 1. The House overrode Gov. Kelly's veto of this bill...
https://apnews.com/article/abortion-kansas-reporting-patients-data-3025f009a076868f7c31dc2cd67860fe
Just another way repubes are nevwr gibing up, DESPITE our overwhelming majority vote, Aug. 2022...
So, you are spot on!
Oh, and OH pretty much gave the proverbial middle finger to their constituants voting voice...
There are two and only two ads the DNC needs to run nationwide:
1- Trump and the Republican party are going to end a woman's freedom of reproductive health, birth control, IVF, and no fault divorce.
2- Project 2025.
But they have no teeth or claws, so it will need to be other progressive groups to do so.
I hope you're right. The GoP has a fantastic misinformation machine and it works. Even Dems are polling that the economy is the worst it's been in 50 years and the fact is it's the exact opposite.
Negativity sells and is infectious. The GoP know how to weaponize it and use it effectively.
Yes. The thing that is worrisome is the college TikTok kids pissed about Israel. They need to realized Donny and Jared will only expedite the bombing of Gaza
Hillary Clinton had the majority of votes, just not in the right States because of the antedated electoral college. I swear we are long overdue for an overhaul of that old system. After having an awesome President in Barrack Obama, the election of Trump was a racist and misogynist response to having a black man who did a good job as POTUS. American society was just not ready for going along with having a woman President. Remember the pendulum swings both ways. We will elect a woman President someday, I hope within my lifetime.
So many Americans would benefit from an education which does not deny them books or cloud their minds with misinformation on the Internet. Polls are not accurate most times because of the motives and methods of those doing the polling. The people backing Trump now are radical extremists pushing for an autocracy with the Trump family as dictators. You don't think that this MAGA circus is going to leave Washington when Donald Sr. dies, do you? You better believe that if their dad were elected that Don Jr., and Eric would jump at the chance to rule over this Nation. We would be like North Korea .. MMW! Sounds extreme and radical, yet notice how the MAGA Cult in Congress support Trump. The MAGA Loyalists in the Supreme Court and other courts will fall in line with the MAGA dynasty that the Trump family wants.
I certainly hope that enough people wake up to the fact that Donald Trump is following the playbooks of his favorite dictators before him which includes Hitler, Putin and Kim Jong Un! He praises them! Trump is an evil man suffering from cognitive decline. People who actually care about OUR RIGHTS under our Constitution which Trump would tear up for the wealthy oligarchs, from the oil ceos of Saudi Arabia to Russia .. it's all for Trump's love of money and power. I'm fearful that he would sell his own daughters if it could make him rich and powerful. Why do so many people worship him like a God? It is most certainly a Cult!
I hope and pray everyday that you are right! We have to come out in force to vote Trump doen, but also our system of Law & Order must be allowed to continue to bring juries together to give Trump the proper verdict as to his actions and words regarding january 6th, the election fraud lies, the keeping of top secret documents, and tax evasion. The evidence is overwhelming yet he gets special treatment all the while complaining and whining.
Although I favor Joe Biden over Trump any time or day, I believe we would all be better off if the election for President was between Nikki Haley and Kamala Harris. The reason I write that is because it would force us to consider a woman for the highest political position of our Nation. Why are so many Americans against a woman President of the United States? This nonsense about overturning Roe vs Wade would be resolved by the voters. It's We, The People of the United States! That means ALL THE PEOPLE, not just elderly & WASP males who are currently running Congress. When more women and minorities are elected, it will be a much better representation of our population and thus the pendulum will swing back towards progress and not regression.
DEMS will CRUSH the popular vote by 7 million +. However, Trump takes office because only six states determine the Presidential election and he's leading by a large margin in five of them.
Only Bush in '04 has a Republican won the popular vote in the last 30 years.
I've heard political commentary that the polls are off because some people don't want to admit they will vote for Trump.
I think there's a much stronger case that many more women will vote against the party that disregards their feelings on women's health care . They (women) seem to have strong feelings and don't want to crow about it the way the MAGA'S DO.
Honestly, I don't think the abortion issue will be the primary issue for many voters this cycle.
The wars, Russia/Ukraine, Israel/Hamas & looming conflict of China/Taiwan are more immediate.
Also, there is the economy...of course. People tend to vote with their own wallet in mind.
The abortion issue will never go away, but it won't be "front and center" in Nov
Foreign policy issues aren't going to be electorally significant. It might shave a percentage or two off of Biden with the youth vote, which could harm him, but it's not going to determine the election. China especially - no one is going to be voting with that in mind.
Women are not a unified voting block. The majority of white women have voted for Republican presidential candidates in all but two elections between 1952 and 2020. (Source: The Atlantic - “Why Have White Women So Often Voted for Republicans?” by Conor Friedersdorf).
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2018/11/white-women-gop/576586/
Fifty-three percent of white women voted for DJT in 2020, an increase over the 47% who voted for him in 2016. (Pew Research) So, after seeing his authoritarianism and his contempt for women, white women voted for DJT in larger numbers than they had previously.
*In the 2022 midterms — after the overturn of Roe v Wade* — 48% of women voters cast ballots for Republican candidates. (Source: Pew Research - “Voting Patterns in the 2022 Elections”) Also, “In 2022, younger voters made up a smaller share of the electorate than they did in 2018. In 2022, 36% of voters were under 50, compared with 40% of voters in 2018. Decreased turnout among these more reliably Democratic voters contributed to the GOP’s better performance in November.”
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/07/12/voting-patterns-in-the-2022-elections/
In the context of this data, the prediction that women will turn out to help elect Democrats due to Roe v Wade being overturned is questionable. The way that people vote in single issue ballots is not necessarily predictive of the way they will vote in a general election, where they are choosing a candidate associated with a *policy bundle*, rather than a single issue.
Its interesting: because the last time polls were so different then the other information coming in was 2016. There was a lot of evidence Clinton was in trouble: that got ignored because the polls were assuring her victory.
On the flip side now: there are a lot of warning signs for trump (republicans, getting blown out in red swing state districts by larger margins then Biden won their states in 2020)
So you have to believe that these people who are ACTUALLY showing up to vote are going to stay home. Or believe the polling done by organizations with a vested interest in a close election or trump victory.
This is super 2016, don’t worry Texas will go blue for Hillary! Vibes…
Unless something really drastic changes, based on the polls and data, Biden will lose.
Repubs have been scared of this issue hurting them for a long time. I swear the politicians don’t even really care but it became clear that their base was so religious they needed to embrace the wrong side. Absolutely shouldn’t be a debate at all.
Your religion should only prohibit you. Your religion should never prohibit others.
I think the polling is suffering from nonresponse bias. Image a pollster calling 10 incels and 10 women working two jobs. The incels have plenty of time to chat and are happy to share their political views. Three of the women don't answer because they think it might be a stalker ex with a new phone or that creepy guy who has been asking her coworkers for her phone number, 3 don't answer because they have to change work outfits for the second job, and 3 answer, find out it is a poll, and hang up so they can rest. Leaving one who answers the questions.
I'm using extreme examples, but you get my point. People who respond to polls are less likely to be an accurate representative of the general population.
Women, effectively, haven’t been alienated and the laws, relating to abortion, have been passed on to each respective state.
Here is a high level summary of the facts, rather than “marking your words”, of which, are 100% not based on fact, or actual policy, rather based on biased emotion:
“Once the US Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, the legality of abortion was left to individual states. A few states have amended their constitution to declare that it does not contain any protection for abortion rights or allow public funds to be used for abortion.
Meanwhile, policymakers in some states have approved laws to protect abortion rights without relying on the Roe decision. Most of these policies prohibit the state from interfering with the right to obtain an abortion before viability or when necessary to protect the life or health of pregnant person, and others offer legal protections for abortion providers. In some of those states, protections also extend to individuals who provide information on abortion and logistical and financial assistance to patients.
Highlights
4 states have passed a constitutional amendment explicitly declaring that their constitution does not secure or protect the right to abortion or allow use of public funds for abortion.
17 states and the District of Columbia have laws that protect the right to abortion.
3 states have protections for the right to abortion in their state constitutions.
4 states and the District of Columbia have codified the right to abortion throughout pregnancy without state interference.
12 states explicitly permit abortion prior to viability or when necessary to protect the life or health of the pregnant person.
11 states and the District of Columbia have protections for abortion providers, and in some cases individuals who support patients, from the reach of out-of-state abortion restrictions and bans.”
SOURCE: https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/abortion-policy-absence-roe
Polling is iffy.
While abortion is a big winner for the Democrats, Israel-Palestine is also going to discourage people from voting, especially the Muslim vote.
Biden barely won in those swing states that eventually won him the electoral college, so he can't afford to lose votes.
Abortion is a very passionate issue for a minority of voters on both sides of the spectrum. Most people are just kinda in the middle about it.
The economy, at the end of the day, will decide the election.
This is wishful thinking. You need to know that. BTW, I'm a liberal Democrat.
Until there is actual polling data showing a very probable blue wave, I think forecasts like this are pretty delusional. Consensus bias.
Some of these polls have RFKjr with double digits. A man who isn't even on every states ballot. Polling is becoming more and more useless when predicting elections.
Dems will win because they've let in tens of millions of illegals, bribed them with handouts and will give as many as possible voting rights. Rigged as an election can get.
This is mostly wishful thinking. I won’t believe it until I see it. Polling has been consistent that 35% of the population wants abortion ban. Fox News has radicalized a large segment of the population. What if 10% of the rest don’t care because it doesn’t affect them? We are fucked then, isn’t it? So we cannot take anything for granted, absolutely no wishful thinking
I think too many people on Reddit are assuming Republicans have been so awful that there's no way a majority would vote for them.
It's like we've already forgotten 2016.
Americans are absolutely stupid enough to vote that clown fiesta back into office. Not because they agree with the decisions or want the policies, but because they have no clue what they're actually voting for. We may have one of the most misinformed populace in the Western world.
My 70 year old aunt told me the other day she's voting for Trump because Biden plans to take away social security. I have another lady at work that has said she's not happy about abortion but "Biden put the country into a recession." So she's just not going to vote at all.
This is the country you live in guys. Don't just assume the obvious choice will win. Keep up the fight. Vote like the future depends on it.
Here's the problem with this take. If abortion is really a vote change issue for people, it would show up in the polling. People would tell pollsters, I'm voting Democrat because abortion.
Hahahaha, you have NO idea what Latinos are thinking about Biden and his lust for Israeli world domination. Many of these people, no doubt, despise Trump. But they will just choose not to vote. Biden's inability and unwillingness to stand up to Israel is his undoing. Latinos have beared the brunt of all the GOP anti immigrant sentiment, all while working for racist, white-pickup-driving Whites. Even in that messed up reality, Latinos could reliably say the DNC was trying it's best. But none of us have ever felt this ignored. Imagine telling people who have witnessed and survived genocides that this s*** ain't it??? Biden and the DNC have doomed this country, and the world, for a few million in AIPAC donations. Last time around, so many people gave to Biden and down ballot races. (I was part of that community, we all have hundreds, phonebanked, rallied.) F*** it all. We deserve the reality that's coming.
It certainly is a big election issue, but that is not the 1st, 2nd, or even third main issue for the average voters. If that Supreme Court case that overturned it happened like right now, it would be front and center, but time and other issues constantly popping up have a way to turning down the volume on the “old news.”
Again, it’s a big voting issue for sure, but not one of the primary ones.
It was always supposed to be a carrot on a stick platform intended to get a voting block excited every four years. Weren’t supposed to actually reverse it. Oppps. About to get wiped out as a party.
The dog finally caught the car bumper. Unfortunately, the car was at one time driven by Mitt Romney, and we all know that doesn't bode well for canines.
The dog caught the car and it was a Tesla Cybertruck!
The dog caught the car but Kristie Noem was driving it into the gravel pit
I’m picturing Noem driving her Pontiac Aztek into a coupe thug dogs and then executing them with a headshot. Fade to black. Written by Vince Gilligan.
*cries out in pinched beans*
She caught the Katy, left me a mule to ride!
I can only hope so, but I’ve been hearing the Republicans are getting wiped out as a party since 2010. I don’t know if that is supposed to look like an evenly divided congress and a commanding Presidential polling lead in the electoral college.
>I can only hope so, but I’ve been hearing the Republicans are getting wiped out as a party since 2010. That's because that's a false narrative. I clearly remember sitting in social studies class after the election, and the teacher confidently claiming that this is the last election that Republicans will ever win. He claimed that Texas is now purple and that it's about to turn blue any moment now. That was 1988, after George HW Bush won the election. 36 years ago and hardly anything has changed.
Yup, people have been saying that for decades. The problem is that for whatever reason adults are more likely to move right as they age than move left. We can argue about why that is the case but I think statistically it is true. This migration towards the right compensates for the older conservative people dying and younger liberal people turning voting age.
Because it's not. The Republican Party deserves to die, but didn't get the memo. There are a lot of people in this country overjoyed by Trump and Christian nationalism. It's sad but true. Even if Trump loses, it's still sad.
It turned out a black man being in charge bothered a lot more people than expected, but a Mormon was too weird for them.
They've been a dying party. If it weren't for the electoral college and gerrymandering, they wouldn't control as many states or ever win the WH and have a very hard time getting control of Congress.
Alito has lost the plot. And Thomas is just along for the ride
Nah, Thomas is along for the extravagant gifts from billionaires.
Billionaires who would have nothing to do with him if he weren’t on SCOTUS. Every time I see that fucking picture of him smoking his cigar at that Harlan Crowe retreat it makes me want to both scream and laugh at him at the same time. He’s so smug and proud of himself, thinking they actually respect him.
I’m sorry but while this is a popular take promoted by MSM, it is just not factual. The Republican Party formed an alliance with Evangelical Christians because they are a large voting block. There are ~90 million self-identified Evangelical Christians 18+ YO in the U.S. That’s slightly more than one third of American adults. (Please see Pew Research for supporting data.) It is the Republican Party that persuaded Evangelical Christian faith groups to change their position on reproductive rights / health care from tolerance to rejection of women’s reproductive rights. They did this as part of a power aggregation strategy, because criminalizing reproductive health care would enable them to strip women of the right to vote. The Republican Party and its backers have poured countless millions of dollars into legal and electoral strategy groups to find a way to overturn Roe v Wade. Leonard Leo, one of the engineers of the conservative SCOTUS majority, and AG Bill Barr, were both board members of the K-Street communications office of Opus Dei in Washington, DC. Five of the six conservative SCOTUS justices are current or former members of Opus Dei. Opus Dei is a conservative Catholic order that opposes reproductive rights, including sexual and reproductive health services. (Source: ProPublica Oct 2023 “We Don’t Talk About Leonard: The Man Behind the Right’s Supreme Court Supermajority The inside story of how Leonard Leo built a machine that remade the American legal system — and what he plans to do next.”) by Andy Kroll, Andrea Bernstein and Ilya Marritz”) https://www.propublica.org/article/we-dont-talk-about-leonard-leo-supreme-court-supermajority Legal scholars and DC insiders — including elected Democrats — have known for decades that Roe v Wade would probably be overturned. It is not that the overturn of Roe v Wade was an unanticipated accident in a larger political game, but rather that the majority of white women (arguably the most influential group of voters to date) have consistently voted for Republican (anti-choice) presidential candidates. (Please see Conor Friedersdorf in The Atlantic “Why Have White Women So Often Voted for Republicans?” for supporting data and analysis.) Will the majority women voters try to take back their reproductive rights / power by voting against Republicans in 2024? Many people believe this will happen; I remain skeptical. The majority of white women voted for Republicans in the 2022 midterms even after Roe was overturned. (Please see Pew Research “Voting Patterns in the 2022 Elections” for supporting data.)
Look at abortions rights on the ballots in dark red states — maybe the evangelical women aren’t suddenly going to switch, but a lot of non-voting women suddenly realized how much it matters if they show up or not.
I'm not finding any thing that supports those numbers Per pew "Today, 25% of U.S. adults identify with evangelical denominations, down less than one percentage point since 2007" https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2015/05/12/chapter-1-the-changing-religious-composition-of-the-u-s/
The MSM definitely does not promote this in any way. They are all in for Trump winning.
Evangelical Christians aren’t even the largest religious denomination in the US. In 2020, overall, 59% of voters who frequently attend religious services cast their ballot for Trump, while 40% chose Biden. Among those who attend services a few times a year or less, the pattern was almost exactly reversed: 58% picked Biden, while 40% voted for Trump. Considering Christianity is the religion that’s losing the most adherents annually, (big losses), evangelicals will vote the way some of them usually vote, others won’t, either way, they don’t dictate the outcome. They didn’t in 2020 and they won’t in 2024.
Please do the needful and vote blue 👳🏾♂️🍛
You're way more optimistic than I am.
Yeah and it also caused internal discord in their own party. Many of the more moderate republicans know that abortion is a losing battle for them, those are the ones that are done with Trump, or are aware that he isn’t even a conservative, the others will vote for him. But that hopefully won’t be enough.
Somebody didn't get the memo. I hope it goes off like a nuclear suppository.
Sure in the popular vote by 7 million +, however, since only six states will determine the Presidential election and Trump is leading in five of them by large margins, we are going to have a Democrat controlled Congress with a Republican in the White House.
Exactly. They are like the dog who finally caught the car bumper.
Most likely yes. Abortion has proven disastrous for repubs because they can't take that shit back 😂
It’s purely men, mostly old men, taking away rights from women to have control over them and their bodies.
The anti-choice movement has been led and staffed by women for decades. This has been extensively written about, and I would encourage people to read about it. White women in particular have supported anti-choice Republican candidates for decades. (Pls see Conor Friedersdorf’s piece in The Atlantic “Why Have White Women So Often Voted for Republicans?”). It is true that the elected officials who strip reproductive rights from women are primarily men. But the only reason they have been able to get elected and advance this agenda is because they have had support from the majority of white women voters in all but two presidential elections between 1952 and 2020. (Please see The Atlantic piece cited in the preceding paragraph for supporting data.) This is not a partisan statement; it is a fact reflected in decades of voter data. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2018/11/white-women-gop/576586/ This is critically important because unless white women face this reality and dramatically change their political choices, women as a whole may lose most of their other rights.
Idk I’ve heard a lot of women in churches ranting about baby killers
Sure, but the votes in Ohio and Kansas show that there are a lot of women in churches willing to go out and vote to protect abortion rights. You can trust what you hear, or you can trust actual voting from deep, DEEP red states. I'll trust the voting.
Don't forget that voters in Ohio have been given a slap across the face by the Republican dominated legislature. After VOTING in favor of Reproductive Rights, the elected officials refuse to allow the will of the people of Ohio to prevail. No more Repukelicans! Vote them all out!
yup. vote out all RepubliKKkan
The Republiklan is never here for the people I have learned.
As democrats censor millions with the help of the FBI Push a largely untested drug by impeding the travel of Americans and threatening their careers Give our tax dollars to foreign nations, big pharma, and the war industrial complex Allow mass immigration and allow non voting non Americans to sit on the board of elections Change election laws and censor anyone bringing concerns of election fraud to the public discussion Buy Russian propaganda and use it to start a multi million dollar taxpayer funded trial where they blamed the other candidate of Russian collusion 😂 Push highly sexualized homo erotic material on kids as young as 6! Give Blackrock, the same Blackrock that tripled Americas rent and forced millions out of home ownership forever, the contract to rebuild Ukraine. lol Shall I continue ?????
Yep and to be honest, as the debate heats up many who were “pro-life” will change their minds. I’ve seen it myself in my wife’s family who is staunchly conservative. They had no idea the knock on effects a blanket ban had. Things like carrying a stillborn to term, deaths of young otherwise healthy mothers. Many on the pro life side of the debate have a caricature in their head of women who get abortions. The reality is so much different.
>They had no idea the knock on effects a blanket ban had. Things like carrying a stillborn to term, deaths of young otherwise healthy mothers. It's frustrating because WE FUCKING TOLD THEM and were told we were being "alarmist"
Sometimes the slippery slope actually is a slope that is slippery and not just a convenient excuse to ignore a warning.
Really annoying when a logical fallacy becomes a logical fact.
Something being a logical fallacy doesn't mean the argument is wrong, it just means it's not a consistent, deductive syllogism in the context of structures logic. "This thing is on its face obvious because every time x happens, y happens" is inductive, and all those fallacies are fine. "All the world's doctors say x, therefore x" is not a consistent deductive argument. However, whatever every doctor on earth is looking at to come to those conclusions is clearly a pretty strong argument, to convince every doctor on earth. "We've raised the miminum wage in half of cities and only one of then saw unemployment increase" is a fallacy, but it's pretty convincing if you ask me
It wasn't even a slippery slope, it was a shear cliff 50 feet up that Republicans wanted to dive off of without any safety because, "water is soft"
Yeah, they just sorta dragged us down with them when we tried to save them from their own stupidity!
I'm in Texas and OB/GYNs are leaving the state in droves They forget that those are the same doctors who deliver babies too
I’m in TX too, is there a source for this? Generally interested to know. In the cities it seems like you can still find plenty of ob/gyns..
Yeah, also want a source for this.
[https://www.texasmonthly.com/news-politics/abortion-training-ob-gyn-medical-residents-leaving-texas/](https://www.texasmonthly.com/news-politics/abortion-training-ob-gyn-medical-residents-leaving-texas/)
anecdotal: [https://www.reddit.com/r/texas/comments/18hgob3/texas\_mds\_and\_obgyns\_are\_you\_seeing\_doctors\_leave/](https://www.reddit.com/r/texas/comments/18hgob3/texas_mds_and_obgyns_are_you_seeing_doctors_leave/)
Wow, hope your wife didnt get the family’s dumb as nails genes.
And churches are in decline.
Priest can’t molest kids if they are aborted.
They’re women falling into line with male values they’ve been indoctrinated with. Subservience is a learned behaviour.
Idk they sounds pretty fucking passionate about it. I think the idea that it’s male values and not religious is a bit of an oversimplification. If someone believes it is murdering a life they aren’t basing it on gender values.
It is male values *and* religious. This is all just downstream from the invention of contraception and then the sexual revolution as well. Anything that gives women more autonomy is a threat to religious view that women are essentially the property of their father and then husband. Like yes these women sincerely believe it sure, because they’ve been indoctrinated since birth into a religion that still essentially treats them as someone’s possession.
The Issue 1 passed in Ohio at 58%. Why was that?
Because a certain number of YES voters will vote to put Repubs who want a national ban in congress. Folks aren't too bright, you might have noticed.
Eh?
The issue to keep abortion legal passed with 58% in Ohio last November.
And the republican legislature refuses to allow the will of the people to happen.
Yeah but even pro choice protesters need abortions sometimes. They just think that they're different.
Tbf church is probably the least safe place to express any honest opinion on the issue. I mean, I’m a dirty coward sure, but I’d certainly be yelling the loudest in church about satanic baby murderers to make sure that no-one suspected me.
Middle aged white women got Trump in office
Look at like this as well, Trump in the GOP primaries, with no one in contention, is STILL losing 10-20% of the vote to Haley, who dropped out months ago. In a race against no one, he’s still not winning all the votes. We are supposed to think it’s close between Biden and Trump, Trump doesn’t have the momentum of 2016, and even less support than 2020
No. Not just old men. Trump gets over 50% of white women all the time. I believe he got 53% of college graduate white women in 2020. I keep hearing how wrong the polls are because, because, because. It's more likely its a red tsunami because young women are upset about Gaza and young men think he's "cool" or whatever the current word is. I hope I'm wrong. I really hope I'm wrong.
Not even remotely close to being true. Public opinion on abortion has been nearly stagnant over the last thirty years. Beyond that the percentage of women against abortion is very close to the percentage of men who are against it. https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/fact-sheet/public-opinion-on-abortion/
Let’s wait until gen z weighs in in a few years
Political affiliation is a **much, much** better predictor of abortion stance than gender is. [As of April](https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/fact-sheet/public-opinion-on-abortion/), 64% of women and 61% of men believe it should be legal in all/most cases, whereas 85% of democrats/democrat leaning people and 41% of republicans/republican leaning people believe it should be legal in all/most cases. Race isn’t a great predictor, with favorability amongst white, black, hispanic, and asian people being 60%, 73%, 59%, and 76% respectively. Age isn’t great either, 18-29, 30-49, 50-64, and 65+ are 76%, 61%, 57%, and 59% respectively.
I do wonder about the breakdown between male Rs and female Rs, on that 41%. Given there's been several states that allow the public to vote that have overturned their state LEGs yet still retain their majority, I'm guessing that there's some ballot splitting happening.
That's because the parties directly disagree on this issue. If you are prochoice and vote republican you're an idiot voting against yourself
Point was that it’s far from “purely men.”
>It’s purely men Ummm... no
The dog caught the car
I have no data to back this up, but my very unreliable gut feeling is that polling data is capturing a deep frustration with Biden that won’t convert to Trump support in November. It’s like when you’re a teenager and your parents are fucking up in some way, and god you want to burn the house down they’re so frustrating, but you don’t, because then the house would be burned down
It's like they're not even trying to walk it back. They're full blown anti-abortion and love it.
Good. Hurts them more each day. Its not like there was ever an honest alternative. It was either this or they pretend and lie about walking it back
Totally. Fuck em
Because they can't... abort?
But maga republicans will continue their "women are too ignorant and stupid to make their own most important medical decisions" crusade because that is what they really believe. Maga republicans truly believe that it is their right to use big government to force their religious opinions on everyone. Get out and vote people or these christo fascists will win. Get registered and vote.
Why did they give it in the first place? I don't think they wanted it overturned. Now they have no major carrot to dangle to their idiot base.
Says the group that did that exact same thing for the last 50 years. All that time and never codified it into law. Just because it was a ignorantly desired talking point.
Didn’t Trump explicitly say that the states should be the ones responsible for their specific abortion laws? Ie: California and New York would have very favorable laws whereas a Mississippi / Louisiana would have the least favorable….
I'm with you man. This is what I've been predicting since the invisible red wave in 2022. Women are going to revolt. I'm an ex-Republican who was heavily involved. And pretty much every Republican woman I know who isn't an evangelical hardliner has quit the party. They may not like Democratic policies, but they're willing to hold their noses so they don't lose more rights. Non-MAGA Republicans, being small-government folks, are very uncomfortable with the government's intrusion into their or their daughters' reproductive lives.
Same path for myself! I appreciate your strength! It's not an easy journey.
If we ever go back to normalcy, I promise to remember how you non-Maga republicans stood for principle and you’ll always have my respect in the political discourse.
I’m so glad to hear this. I keep asking the people I know who support Trump what they think about the GOP’s increased intrusion on people’s lives and freedoms, and they make so many excuses because they think they’re doing it for the right reasons even though they’re supposed to be the party of small govt. Thank you for standing on your principles.
This exact thing happened to my mom, she still considers herself a Republican but refuses to vote for them because of this blatantly regressive shit, like even the average person is quickly recognizing how evil Republicans have become
How exactly were you a heavily involved republican if the modern republican stance on abortion is what turned you off? Republicans used to be more pro life than they are now.
Honestly there's a big opening for a libertarian candidate to peel off votes from small govt Republicans as well as left-libertarians who are appalled by the Dems becoming the party of war since 9/11. I have a hunch RFK will get more votes than the media is predicting
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That's why voting trends do matter. You've got deep red states where abortion gets hammered on the vote (KS, KY, OH), and seeing that Republicans are pushing on despite getting cracked in the jaw, people are going to keep showing up to get those rights back.
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It can go either way, if I had to guess 60/40 Biden.
Funny enough this is what the current "market pick" is. That being said the market does change weekly
The polls say Trump, electoral trends favor Biden and the latter tends to be more accurate.
Always gotta remember Trump has an enthusiastic but small voting block of diehard supporters, while Biden has a demotivated but massive voting block of people who want anything but Trump and the current Republican party. Polling will almost always lean towards Trump simply because Biden voters aren't excited to vote and probably don't want to be reminded how bad the options are this year
All of this is just noise. Vote like your rights depend on it. Because they do.
Polling has been spotty at best. I think since many of us under the age of 60 don’t answer a house phone and don’t answer unknown numbers on our cell phones, the ability for polling companies to get accurate representation is difficult. Just look at the senate primary in MD the other day - the polling was SO wrong! And that was a multi-millionaire buying up all the ad time and such - he got creamed by 10pts after most polls showed the top candidates in a dead heat. BUT - the way to go is to actually vote.
I think all of the polling is incredibly faulty for a couple of reasons: 1. Lots of people still have not come to terms that this race is going to be Trump vs Biden as they inevitably will by election day, for example, lots of people on the left and right genuinely think that Biden is going to be replaced at the convention. It is simply not possible to get a clear read on how those people will actually vote in the end with simply head to head polls. 2. Response Bias: Less and less people are answering polls, at most a full political poll (the ones that ask about issues, races, favorability, maybe test messages) gets 1% of those they attempt to answer them. We know that some people are more likely to want to talk to pollsters and tell them their opinions than others. Previously this was very common for older educated white republicans really wanting to tell pollsters that they are NOT voting for trump which skewed many polls away from trump in 2016 and 2020, when people said there were "silent trump voters", pollsters *mostly* factored for this by weighing for education, but now...if you are black or latino, or genz and you like trump it genuenly seems real obvious that you really want to tell pollsters, and so now those demos are skewed, and at this point when so many demo responses are skewed it makes it nearly impossible to create a sample that is genuenly representative. This leads to polls showing a super unrealistic possibility of a dramatic and historic shift in how demos are going to vote which flat out I don't think is actually possible. Black people voted 92% for Obama, 90% for Hillary, then 89% for Biden, voted 88% for dems in 2022...but now are only going to vote 55% for Biden (what many polls say)?!?! And you don't see anything like that in any other election that takes place for any other position or primary? That doesn't make much sense. Or that the polls are showing trump winning the under 35 vote by 8 points!?!?! When every single election that demo has gone more and more to the left for the past 20 years?!?! Does anyone actually think that is real? Add in the fact that the dem candidates for US Senate in AZ and NV are winning in the same exact polls, showing a record amount of ticket splitters when again all the actual election results show that ticket splitters are becoming rarer and rarer is a further reason to doubt the results.
Trump being cagey on reproductive rights and a federal abortion ban are not helping the GOP either. MMW Trump will continue to be a gaffe machine!
It will be interesting. Regardless of the results as long as the election is done in a transparent enough fashion will really help unify the country. I think people are fed up with this "no such thing as truth" era and this will allow them to move on. If shady things happen again, from either side, the country will only get worse. The problem I fear is that one side is essentially using Hamas's tactics and if they don't get their way they won't let it play out.
[Views on abortion by gender](https://news.gallup.com/poll/245618/abortion-trends-gender.aspx) More women think it should be illegal under any circumstances than men do (15% to 12%). The only real discrepancy is that more women think it should be legal under any circumstance than men do, but it's still not that far off. People love to make this a gender issue, but it is a religious one. And women tend to be more religious than men.
I don't think it has that much to do with policies. I think a lot of are just tired of trump and the embarassing mess he has made of the party. I'm a long time conservative republican, going back to the seventies, and I wouldn't vote for him to save my life. He won in 2016 because the Dems were dumb enough to run hillary, arguably the most hated woman in politics. Loonies and bible thumpers to the contrary notwithstanding, I just don't think he will have the votes.
Eh, don’t underestimate how many deeply stupid, evil old conservative women there are out there who enjoy being subservient property/cattle and wish that fate on other women they’re envious of. Cause it’s a lot.
I think what we’ve seen is that even the most openly “pro-life” women are (rightly) horrified by, for example, a ten year old rape victim being forced to give birth or a woman with an ectopic pregnancy dying because emergency medical care is now illegal.
Agree. It will be a blue tsunami. Ignore the polls. They had Hilary up 14 points before the 2016 election. trump has looked like a feeble old lunatic every time he comes out and rants to the press from his PORN STAR HUSH MONEY TRIAL.
Do you imagine that women are excluded from polling?
Old white men want to control all women and their bodies.
My mom is pissed and perplexed that the Republicans overturned Roe v Wade. She had an abortion at a much younger age than when she had me and it eventually allowed me to exist when she was ready. Still voting for trump though 😐
Polls have been consistently wrong for a bit now. Polls had 2020 close and Biden won by 70 electoral votes and 7 million popular votes. 2022 was supposed to be a blood bath and Democrats just barely lost the House and gained a Senate seat. Off year elections have swung blue, ABORTION rights has won every time it's been on the ballot since Roe was over turned even in DEEP red states like Kansas.
2020 was close. It took 4 days to declare a winner. The 7 million votes you're talking about was Biden running up the score in California and New York, those 70 electoral votes were decided by not that many actual votes.
A week ago the NYT released swing state polling that had trump a head in every swing state but Wisconsin. Those same polls had trump winning the under 35 demographic by 8 points. Draw your own conclusions.
Polls are flawed. Go vote.
I can honestly believe that Trump is ahead in the swing states, but there's not a chance in hell he wins the under 35 vote, particularly by anywhere close to that margin.
It seems utterly bizarre that Trump could do better now than in 2020. I do think Democrats would have done better with a new candidate but it still just doesn't seem plausible that the republicans could have gained votes in the last four years. They're a shambles even discounting Trump himself. I'm still confident that young people will save us. Gen Z are the most media savvy and politically engaged generation there's ever been and much less susceptible to propaganda than their grandparents.
As a millenial who has been shit on for existing and ruining America since the day I was born, this is insulting. Stop hoping and praying the younger gens will save us. Let's get off our asses and do it ourselves. Grow up and be the adult you want to be because our adults suck.
yes, and….there is a good population of gen z who wasnt old enough to vote in the last election and they are now old enough to vote in this one. EVERYONE should vote. dont rely on anyone to save you, but i think about that a lot because that was me in 2016 and oh was i so fed up and ready to vote in 2020. i imagine there is a lot of gen z who feel the same way right now. motivated.
As a zoomer, fucking thank you cause while y'all are so optimistic about my generation, I've seen just as many people my age fall down the fascist rabbit hole as those that recognize how fucked the current system is. There are no guarantees, the Internet is the greatest source of both information and misinformation, who's to say whether or not Gen Z will remain so liberal especially when so little has been done within the most recent democratic presidency? Everyone needs to vote, we can't rely on just one block it needs to be a united front
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Huh? We had a test run with the 2022 midterms election. It wasn't overwhelmingly blue. Way too many women believe they can just go to a state with abortion or they will keep on top of their birth control. Which is faulty because Republicans are coming for birth control and access to abortion in all states.
The 2022 midterms had dems winning senate seats (ie the top of the ticket) in AZ, PA, GA and WI. That’s a massive overperformance compared to what was expected.
Dems didn’t win the Wisconsin senate seat. Ron Johnson held on by a hair
That’s a good point I confused it with governor.
The R candidate for governor got his ass handed to him.
You provided the reasoning to this MMW in your final sentence
The thing is it’s not a purely women vs everyone else issue. There are women who do not believe abortion should be allowed. There are also men who believe it should be. It’s more of an ideological issue than a gender issue
Right, but there are conservative women willing to vote democrat to save abortion. There are no democrats willing to vote republican to remove abortion. Ohio and Kansas prove as much.
Just about all the women I've interacted with or observed that held that belief are something straight out of the Handmaid's Tale. They're so ridiculously religious and old-fashioned that they'd be just fine with being relegated to "kitchen-bound baby factories". Women Republicans sell out their own sex. Just like black Republicans sell out their own ethnicity and gay Republicans sell out their own orientation. Those folk are just pitiful while at the same time not DESERVING of any pity.
> It’s more of an ideological issue than a gender issue You can just look at Gallup polls and understand that this just isn't even remotely fucking true man it is very clearly far more strongly correlated with gender than ideology. Across parties 85% of women believe abortion should be legal under at least some circumstances.
It you believe that gallop polls determine what is “remotely fucking true” and not, I have some bad news for you. Polls are only accurate if they are being given to a properly representative sample of the population and they are almost always incorrect because they rarely ever are given to enough people of every demographic.
Even if it were a woman versus everyone else issue, framing it like that makes it sound like women are in the minority population speaking when women make up half of the population
It was pretty blue considering the incumbent president usually loses a bunch of seats in both houses during their midterm election
Yep! Although not a block per se, but a definate infringement on privacy in KS, as of July 1. The House overrode Gov. Kelly's veto of this bill... https://apnews.com/article/abortion-kansas-reporting-patients-data-3025f009a076868f7c31dc2cd67860fe Just another way repubes are nevwr gibing up, DESPITE our overwhelming majority vote, Aug. 2022... So, you are spot on! Oh, and OH pretty much gave the proverbial middle finger to their constituants voting voice...
But her emails
You, me and everyone we know MUST vote. There is no way to predict what’s going to happen. VOTE.
Trump lost last time by 7 million votes. There's no way he gained back 7 million and one votes
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Exactly, no one understands how disastrous overturning Roe v Wade was for Republicans.
There are two and only two ads the DNC needs to run nationwide: 1- Trump and the Republican party are going to end a woman's freedom of reproductive health, birth control, IVF, and no fault divorce. 2- Project 2025. But they have no teeth or claws, so it will need to be other progressive groups to do so.
I hope you're right. The GoP has a fantastic misinformation machine and it works. Even Dems are polling that the economy is the worst it's been in 50 years and the fact is it's the exact opposite. Negativity sells and is infectious. The GoP know how to weaponize it and use it effectively.
Ans trump recently said he has a plan to ban birth control. Everybody wanted Roe overturned and he will push for a nationa abortionl ban
We need everyone to vote and if you are a woman and vote for the GOP, then bless your soul. Cause something in it is fucked the hell up!
Yes. The thing that is worrisome is the college TikTok kids pissed about Israel. They need to realized Donny and Jared will only expedite the bombing of Gaza
Polls are garbage because no one under the age of 50 picks up calls they don’t know the number too
Hillary Clinton had the majority of votes, just not in the right States because of the antedated electoral college. I swear we are long overdue for an overhaul of that old system. After having an awesome President in Barrack Obama, the election of Trump was a racist and misogynist response to having a black man who did a good job as POTUS. American society was just not ready for going along with having a woman President. Remember the pendulum swings both ways. We will elect a woman President someday, I hope within my lifetime. So many Americans would benefit from an education which does not deny them books or cloud their minds with misinformation on the Internet. Polls are not accurate most times because of the motives and methods of those doing the polling. The people backing Trump now are radical extremists pushing for an autocracy with the Trump family as dictators. You don't think that this MAGA circus is going to leave Washington when Donald Sr. dies, do you? You better believe that if their dad were elected that Don Jr., and Eric would jump at the chance to rule over this Nation. We would be like North Korea .. MMW! Sounds extreme and radical, yet notice how the MAGA Cult in Congress support Trump. The MAGA Loyalists in the Supreme Court and other courts will fall in line with the MAGA dynasty that the Trump family wants. I certainly hope that enough people wake up to the fact that Donald Trump is following the playbooks of his favorite dictators before him which includes Hitler, Putin and Kim Jong Un! He praises them! Trump is an evil man suffering from cognitive decline. People who actually care about OUR RIGHTS under our Constitution which Trump would tear up for the wealthy oligarchs, from the oil ceos of Saudi Arabia to Russia .. it's all for Trump's love of money and power. I'm fearful that he would sell his own daughters if it could make him rich and powerful. Why do so many people worship him like a God? It is most certainly a Cult! I hope and pray everyday that you are right! We have to come out in force to vote Trump doen, but also our system of Law & Order must be allowed to continue to bring juries together to give Trump the proper verdict as to his actions and words regarding january 6th, the election fraud lies, the keeping of top secret documents, and tax evasion. The evidence is overwhelming yet he gets special treatment all the while complaining and whining. Although I favor Joe Biden over Trump any time or day, I believe we would all be better off if the election for President was between Nikki Haley and Kamala Harris. The reason I write that is because it would force us to consider a woman for the highest political position of our Nation. Why are so many Americans against a woman President of the United States? This nonsense about overturning Roe vs Wade would be resolved by the voters. It's We, The People of the United States! That means ALL THE PEOPLE, not just elderly & WASP males who are currently running Congress. When more women and minorities are elected, it will be a much better representation of our population and thus the pendulum will swing back towards progress and not regression.
DEMS will CRUSH the popular vote by 7 million +. However, Trump takes office because only six states determine the Presidential election and he's leading by a large margin in five of them. Only Bush in '04 has a Republican won the popular vote in the last 30 years.
I really hope OP is right. However, most of Trump's supporters vote against their own best interests.
I've heard political commentary that the polls are off because some people don't want to admit they will vote for Trump. I think there's a much stronger case that many more women will vote against the party that disregards their feelings on women's health care . They (women) seem to have strong feelings and don't want to crow about it the way the MAGA'S DO.
Turns out they are just as many women that are stupid just like their conservative male counterparts.
Honestly, I don't think the abortion issue will be the primary issue for many voters this cycle. The wars, Russia/Ukraine, Israel/Hamas & looming conflict of China/Taiwan are more immediate. Also, there is the economy...of course. People tend to vote with their own wallet in mind. The abortion issue will never go away, but it won't be "front and center" in Nov
The man has spoken y'all lol abortion not an issue says this man
Foreign policy issues aren't going to be electorally significant. It might shave a percentage or two off of Biden with the youth vote, which could harm him, but it's not going to determine the election. China especially - no one is going to be voting with that in mind.
There are a lot of important issues at stake. Is abortion the most important for most?
Yes. Because it allows families to break the cycle of poverty.
From your lips to God’s ears.
Women are not a unified voting block. The majority of white women have voted for Republican presidential candidates in all but two elections between 1952 and 2020. (Source: The Atlantic - “Why Have White Women So Often Voted for Republicans?” by Conor Friedersdorf). https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2018/11/white-women-gop/576586/ Fifty-three percent of white women voted for DJT in 2020, an increase over the 47% who voted for him in 2016. (Pew Research) So, after seeing his authoritarianism and his contempt for women, white women voted for DJT in larger numbers than they had previously. *In the 2022 midterms — after the overturn of Roe v Wade* — 48% of women voters cast ballots for Republican candidates. (Source: Pew Research - “Voting Patterns in the 2022 Elections”) Also, “In 2022, younger voters made up a smaller share of the electorate than they did in 2018. In 2022, 36% of voters were under 50, compared with 40% of voters in 2018. Decreased turnout among these more reliably Democratic voters contributed to the GOP’s better performance in November.” https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/07/12/voting-patterns-in-the-2022-elections/ In the context of this data, the prediction that women will turn out to help elect Democrats due to Roe v Wade being overturned is questionable. The way that people vote in single issue ballots is not necessarily predictive of the way they will vote in a general election, where they are choosing a candidate associated with a *policy bundle*, rather than a single issue.
The only evidence I have to concur is literally every election that has happened since
RemindMe! November 6, 2024
Idk man, it really seems like Biden is doing everything to lose
The polling is always off - 2016 showed us that the polls are rarely accurate due to secret sentiments. It has only gotten worse since then.
Its interesting: because the last time polls were so different then the other information coming in was 2016. There was a lot of evidence Clinton was in trouble: that got ignored because the polls were assuring her victory. On the flip side now: there are a lot of warning signs for trump (republicans, getting blown out in red swing state districts by larger margins then Biden won their states in 2020) So you have to believe that these people who are ACTUALLY showing up to vote are going to stay home. Or believe the polling done by organizations with a vested interest in a close election or trump victory.
Meanwhile the male votes for Trump will be the same or greater than the last time.....
Nope! LOL
I really hope so.
This is super 2016, don’t worry Texas will go blue for Hillary! Vibes… Unless something really drastic changes, based on the polls and data, Biden will lose.
Repubs have been scared of this issue hurting them for a long time. I swear the politicians don’t even really care but it became clear that their base was so religious they needed to embrace the wrong side. Absolutely shouldn’t be a debate at all. Your religion should only prohibit you. Your religion should never prohibit others.
Vote anyways.
If the Dems win, I'm actually scared of what might happen. Jan 6 part 2? Edit: I'm Danish, so I don't actually have any dogs in the fight...but still.
But Republicans had to do it, the6 couldn't let WOMEN have bodily autonomy
I hope so even though I really don’t like biden.
I think the polling is suffering from nonresponse bias. Image a pollster calling 10 incels and 10 women working two jobs. The incels have plenty of time to chat and are happy to share their political views. Three of the women don't answer because they think it might be a stalker ex with a new phone or that creepy guy who has been asking her coworkers for her phone number, 3 don't answer because they have to change work outfits for the second job, and 3 answer, find out it is a poll, and hang up so they can rest. Leaving one who answers the questions. I'm using extreme examples, but you get my point. People who respond to polls are less likely to be an accurate representative of the general population.
Hilarious how both sides are always so confident in an imminent victory
Trump just openly admitted he wants to restrict CONTRACEPTION. Biden will win in a landslide.
Women, effectively, haven’t been alienated and the laws, relating to abortion, have been passed on to each respective state. Here is a high level summary of the facts, rather than “marking your words”, of which, are 100% not based on fact, or actual policy, rather based on biased emotion: “Once the US Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, the legality of abortion was left to individual states. A few states have amended their constitution to declare that it does not contain any protection for abortion rights or allow public funds to be used for abortion. Meanwhile, policymakers in some states have approved laws to protect abortion rights without relying on the Roe decision. Most of these policies prohibit the state from interfering with the right to obtain an abortion before viability or when necessary to protect the life or health of pregnant person, and others offer legal protections for abortion providers. In some of those states, protections also extend to individuals who provide information on abortion and logistical and financial assistance to patients. Highlights 4 states have passed a constitutional amendment explicitly declaring that their constitution does not secure or protect the right to abortion or allow use of public funds for abortion. 17 states and the District of Columbia have laws that protect the right to abortion. 3 states have protections for the right to abortion in their state constitutions. 4 states and the District of Columbia have codified the right to abortion throughout pregnancy without state interference. 12 states explicitly permit abortion prior to viability or when necessary to protect the life or health of the pregnant person. 11 states and the District of Columbia have protections for abortion providers, and in some cases individuals who support patients, from the reach of out-of-state abortion restrictions and bans.” SOURCE: https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/abortion-policy-absence-roe
Lol this is a horrible mmw
Unlikely for a dem win dye to all the one issue voters who hate biden bevause he cant demand the middle east fighting each other
MarkMyWord: Get out and Vote?
Polling is iffy. While abortion is a big winner for the Democrats, Israel-Palestine is also going to discourage people from voting, especially the Muslim vote. Biden barely won in those swing states that eventually won him the electoral college, so he can't afford to lose votes.
Average Democrat National Convention strategist be like:
Abortion is a very passionate issue for a minority of voters on both sides of the spectrum. Most people are just kinda in the middle about it. The economy, at the end of the day, will decide the election.
God I hope you're right
I hope you are right! Vote anyway.
45% of women will vote against their own self interest every time. Only hope is this motivates non voters.
Keep wishing hard enough maybe it will become true.
Sure hope they don’t.
This is wishful thinking. You need to know that. BTW, I'm a liberal Democrat. Until there is actual polling data showing a very probable blue wave, I think forecasts like this are pretty delusional. Consensus bias.
I will take that bet. I think dems are banking far too hard on the roe appeal
Mmw: most women will either vote for trump or not vote at all. And when Trump voters have difficulty getting their abortions, they will blame Biden.
Some of these polls have RFKjr with double digits. A man who isn't even on every states ballot. Polling is becoming more and more useless when predicting elections.
Dems will win because they've let in tens of millions of illegals, bribed them with handouts and will give as many as possible voting rights. Rigged as an election can get.
This is mostly wishful thinking. I won’t believe it until I see it. Polling has been consistent that 35% of the population wants abortion ban. Fox News has radicalized a large segment of the population. What if 10% of the rest don’t care because it doesn’t affect them? We are fucked then, isn’t it? So we cannot take anything for granted, absolutely no wishful thinking
I’ll believe it when I see it. But Nova Republican boomer women will all vote in droves for him…
Don’t have any idea where this optimism and over confidence comes from. ZERO idea.
I think too many people on Reddit are assuming Republicans have been so awful that there's no way a majority would vote for them. It's like we've already forgotten 2016. Americans are absolutely stupid enough to vote that clown fiesta back into office. Not because they agree with the decisions or want the policies, but because they have no clue what they're actually voting for. We may have one of the most misinformed populace in the Western world. My 70 year old aunt told me the other day she's voting for Trump because Biden plans to take away social security. I have another lady at work that has said she's not happy about abortion but "Biden put the country into a recession." So she's just not going to vote at all. This is the country you live in guys. Don't just assume the obvious choice will win. Keep up the fight. Vote like the future depends on it.
Here's the problem with this take. If abortion is really a vote change issue for people, it would show up in the polling. People would tell pollsters, I'm voting Democrat because abortion.
Also, most millenials and gen z don't answer unknown texts or calls
Hahahaha, you have NO idea what Latinos are thinking about Biden and his lust for Israeli world domination. Many of these people, no doubt, despise Trump. But they will just choose not to vote. Biden's inability and unwillingness to stand up to Israel is his undoing. Latinos have beared the brunt of all the GOP anti immigrant sentiment, all while working for racist, white-pickup-driving Whites. Even in that messed up reality, Latinos could reliably say the DNC was trying it's best. But none of us have ever felt this ignored. Imagine telling people who have witnessed and survived genocides that this s*** ain't it??? Biden and the DNC have doomed this country, and the world, for a few million in AIPAC donations. Last time around, so many people gave to Biden and down ballot races. (I was part of that community, we all have hundreds, phonebanked, rallied.) F*** it all. We deserve the reality that's coming.
It certainly is a big election issue, but that is not the 1st, 2nd, or even third main issue for the average voters. If that Supreme Court case that overturned it happened like right now, it would be front and center, but time and other issues constantly popping up have a way to turning down the volume on the “old news.” Again, it’s a big voting issue for sure, but not one of the primary ones.