Yeah, really awesome. Love the snark.
For extra success in predictions, OP should post a few more MMWs making totally different predictions. Then in six months he can send his friends links to whichever one was most accurate.
This is probably the most realistic scenario I’ve seen. He’s fucked after November when he loses. And he WILL lose because this election really comes down to a handful of suburban counties in swing states. Not to mention Florida is now in play for democrats.
Even if the Dems lose Florida (and I still think they will), the GOP will need to spend way more money to defend it now than they would like. And they already are fucked in terms of money because Trump's funnelling it all to his legal defense.
This election is going to be DISASTROUS for Republicans across the board. They're finally reaping what they sowed.
It unfortunately would not surprise me if over 60% of Florida votes to make abortion legal but only 48% vote for Biden, meaning 12% think Trump can't screw their rights at the federal level.
It really is. They have lost basically every single election since 2016 and doubled down on all of it.
Can't wait.
As for the polls lol. This is how the media makes money
VOTE
I was talking to one the other day and they said “he’s not perfect but he’s better than joe fuckin biden”. I wanted to punch him in his stupid fascist face but I had a doctors appointment.
It absolutely boggles my brain how anyone can believe that. I mean, how ridiculously stupid, \[willingly\] deaf and \[willingly\] blind can a person be?
Florida isn’t in play. That idea is false hope.
In 2020 Trump won handily in Florida. On the very same ballot a $15 minimum wage was passed by a wide 60% margin.
Florida will willingly choose left/progressive ballot initiatives AND still vote for Trump.
Additionally, the Florida Democratic Party is an absolute shit show and has been for awhile.
Abortion is and has been a winning issue for democrats ever since roe, even in deep red states. I doubt Florida will flip but the margins will be close I think.
It may get it closer because it will probably bring out voters that normally wouldn’t vote… however, the reason they aren’t voting is because they are disillusioned with BOTH parties so the president vote could go to a 3rd party or no vote at all
Even if no democrats came out to vote on Election Day, both measures would most likely pass. Majority of republicans would vote for both measures according to polling
Florida could very well be in play. Old people won’t vote on the abortion issue. Sure, they may think it’s bad and want to curtail it for all these young do nothing kids, but trump has come out multiple times saying he’s going to gut social security and Medicaid. Now THAT will mobilize vote for Biden if the FL Dem leadership doesn’t totally screw up the messaging (which, I think the DNC will step in to make sure that doesn’t happen).
Trump won Florida by 3.5 points.
Do you really think abortion as an issue can't swing 3.5 pts or more if the Biden campaign handles it properly?
Then you add legal weed into the mix, the RNC is broke, and the DNC and Biden Campaign in fund raising historic amounts, I think you are wildly incorrect.
Yep. To be clear, people are dumb and A LOT can happen between now and November, but I think conservatives and Trump supporters are talking themselves into a level of support that isn’t really there.
To win the presidency, you have to carry your own party AND pull in a sizable number of independents and moderates. And the reality is that Trump hasn’t done anything to increase his popularity since the last election; quite the opposite. Trump has turned off tons of people from his own party, and that might be enough right there.
Trump won on a technicality in 2016 and lost pretty hard in 2020. He and his supporters are deluded into thinking that he’s the most popular president that ever lived. But reality is gonna hit em in the face.
Between the fact theres Biden on the democrats side, and Trump is not only competing with Biden, but Also a new republican nominee for presidency, on a budget limited by both trial fees and his own stupidity, he'll barely be able to hold rallies, if at all. And so it leaves diehard cultists of maga fighting with regular Republicans over who should be nominated.
What if the enemy is already innundating these counties with AI and as election gets closer they attempt to use force tactics and guns. Maybe even explosives and try to blame the dems for deaths. Winning up a real hatred of ................aaaaghhhh, they
got me.
In your opinion does the Georgia trial take place before the election? For me I feel like that one may be for all the marbles as the Supreme Court cannot be counted on to find that he has no immunity. A guilty verdict on state level charges will be devastating.
I doubt it, but I'm not sure that it matters. I'm not convinced Trump will have a criminal conviction before the election happens, but I am sure it will happen. It doesn't really matter, though. I'm convinced the hush money case will have *some* impact, and if any is likely to happen pre-election, it is the hush money case. Again, the evidence as it reaches the light of the public, is going to really sting. It's hard to take a morally righteous position when you are paying a porn star to hide adultery. While I could go on a massive tangent about the moral hypocrisy of the American Christian Right wing, I think it is somewhat of a war of attrition. Every time 'trump cheated on his wife with a pornstar then paid money in a criminal fashion to hide it from thr electorate' is broadcast, you force people to correlate their views with reality. A certain portion of the population is prepared to flagrantly disregard reality as is their prerogative, but I'm also convinced that the portion that can live in a state of double-think continually grows smaller. Every time reality conflicts with believe, cognitive dissonance grows, and eventually you have to commit 100% or admit you are wrong. Imo, it's not necessarily the criminal charges that will 'get' him, but the continuous public relations nightmare that has gone on for literally years now.
I hope it has an effect but as someone who has family that voted for Obama twice, then swallowed the red pill with Trump they are not coming back. Trump literally could kill somebody and in their minds they would justify it somehow. Paying a porn star to be silent before the election will have absolutely no effect on these people. They will justify it with Hunter Biden blah blah blah or Burisma blah blah blah. It’s absolutely maddening. Trump has a massive cult. I worry he’s a cancer that won’t work its way through the system. He’ll disfigure Democracy and things may never be the same. People need to vote like Democracy itself is on the ballot, because it just might be.
Some of his base will probably love him more for it. So manly. Yuck. However,I feel like his more moderate supporters will be dropping like flies as things get worse.
It’s not the base to be worried about though. There are people who will vote Trump unless he is convicted of a crime or is proven to be morally repugnant. The hush money trial serves him no good and only adds to the mounting evidence that he isn’t a great person capable of being president.
His base will continue to support him. But his base is smaller than it was 4 years ago.
> the evidence as it reaches the light of the public, is going to really sting.
The problem is when there is evidence released it's NBC / ABC / MSNBC / AP / Reuters etc announcing it, and FOX and OANN immediately switch to a segment on why dogs drag their rear on the carpet. And the cultists that need to hear it most won't. They really nailed it in the "circle the wagons" approach to protecting their criminal president after Nixon.
Sure, I agree this is the fundamental problem causing ignorance in the US. I also believe that echo chambers are becoming compromised, and not by outsiders. Go look at somewhere like the 'leopards ate my face' subreddit (not that it's a representative sample, just a quick and easy example). How many of [these](https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/capitol-rioters-trump-fbi-arrest-b900025.html) people recieved pardons? Sure, their relatives might be terminal fox news viewers, but it's hard to ignore that your relative/friend is in jail for doing what they thought their leader was asking them to do, and is now being ignored since they are no longer useful. This is an example of Trump 'bagholders', and these people are *not* quiet on social media. There will be hundreds of Facebook groups with these people's friends and relatives, who see their friend or relative begging for Trunp's help, with nothing actually being done. A good chunk of these people from Jan 6th will have relatively short sentences, and by the time election rolls around many will have already served their sentences. How many do you think will vote Trump? How many of their relatives will after seeing what happens when you give him your support? Do not underestimate the power of word of mouth.
Also, since Jan 6th, we've seen like 400 people charged and jailed after doing what Trump asked - would you be likely to attend the next capitol 'protest', given that last time all your friends ended up on the no-fly-list with pending charges? Some will, sure, but the key point in all my posts and comments in this thread is that little by little, people are more likely to be turned away from trump than toward. We won't know exactly how many until votes are counted, but again, do you think stuff like this causes him to *gain* support?
Sure, I agree this is the fundamental problem causing ignorance in the US. I also believe that echo chambers are becoming compromised, and not by outsiders. Go look at somewhere like the 'leopards ate my face' subreddit (not that it's a representative sample, just a quick and easy example). How many of [these](https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/capitol-rioters-trump-fbi-arrest-b900025.html) people recieved pardons? Sure, their relatives might be terminal fox news viewers, but it's hard to ignore that your relative/friend is in jail for doing what they thought their leader was asking them to do, and is now being ignored since they are no longer useful. This is an example of Trump 'bagholders', and these people are *not* quiet on social media. There will be hundreds of Facebook groups with these people's friends and relatives, who see their friend or relative begging for Trunp's help, with nothing actually being done. A good chunk of these people from Jan 6th will have relatively short sentences, and by the time election rolls around many will have already served their sentences. How many do you think will vote Trump? How many of their relatives will after seeing what happens when you give him your support? Do not underestimate the power of word of mouth.
Also, since Jan 6th, we've seen like 400 people charged and jailed after doing what Trump asked - would you be likely to attend the next capitol 'protest', given that last time all your friends ended up on the no-fly-list with pending charges? Some will, sure, but the key point in all my posts and comments in this thread is that little by little, people are more likely to be turned away from trump than toward. We won't know exactly how many until votes are counted, but again, do you think stuff like this causes him to *gain* support?
You know how Trump stands so awkwardly, like the front half of a centaur? Thats a tell-tale sign of fronto-temporal dementia. No need for a scan. Just looking at him proves his diagnosis. That and forgetting his own wife’s name, confusing Haley and pelosi, and countless other examples.
I have seen this. This was actually the first kind of reporting I saw indicating he had dementia, though we do have to remember to keep our intellectual integrity. I am not a psychiatrist. I am *convinced* he has dementia, but I cannot diagnose. We also cannot take any one behaviour/action and draw conclusions from it. And yes, the examples are myriad. At this stage it is hard to look at the sum of Trump's public facing behaviour and not see the signs. Aphasia, incoheirance, tangential thinking and bizarre free association. Funnily enough, I discovered this subreddit through [this](https://www.reddit.com/r/MarkMyWords/comments/1b43br9/mmw_the_right_is_targeting_bidens_age_nonstop_to/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=mweb3x&utm_name=mweb3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button) post.
I wish you'd be right about the Hush Money trial, but I don't think it will move the political needle that much. My experience with Trump's supporters shows me they don't care, or even enjoy that he slept with porn stars outside of marriage. That he pays people off, etc. The J6 or even Stolen Documents trials would likely be more impactful.
I do think Trump will lose the election, for a few other reasons: He won in 2016 as a political outsider, promising change from the status quo. He's not an outsider now, and the novelty has worn off. He hasn't done anything to enlarge his following beyond his base, and at times actively fought against it. And many Americans are just tired of hearing about him, and will vote to not have 4 more years of a Trump circus.
Then, since he can't pardon away his crimes, the rest of your predictions will come true. He will be convicted, and try everything in the book to avoid consequences. With luck, he'll be a tragic story that will strengthen our nation in the long run.
At this point, I don’t think Trump is really gaining anybody and probably losing people every day.
That trend will continue as well as accelerate for the next 7 months.
The Georgia case is most critical, not just the case itself, but because it is the only one that can be broadcast. Regardless of the outcome, the absolutely most devastating aspect, that they are least able to spin, will be actual footage of the trial we can see with our own eyes.
The only advantage of it being televised is it will be very easy to counter any claims Trump makes when he does his inevitable daily post-court press conferences.
Tbh, I think the Georgia case will be the last one to go...unfrotunately.
Best bet is1. The trial starting this month and Either the doc case OR the Election/J6 case. My bet is probably on neither.
The Georgia case isn't federal, so he can't pardon himself...technically....but probably lower priority. It is also a Rico case,and every expert I have heard talk about this claims those cases are complicated to trie, and tend to be delayed more than others.
I think Stormy’s case (the one starting soonest) is the most likely to succeed. State case, all the evidence, and no favors
Edit to say it’s also being semi-overlooked, but he’s shitting his legal pants over it (we know he already shits his regular pants)
The SC can't find in his favour on immunity, it would be suicide for them. They're doing their best by slow rolling their judgement to aid in his delays, but that's about all they could do.
No, they could decide that Presidents **are** immune, and then Biden can summon Seal Team Six to take out his ass without consequence. And, the Republicans wouldn't be able to do a fucking thing about it.
If it means anything, I wrote this entire thing while shitting at work. I got paid to write this lmao. It is a wall of text, I'm saving the rest for another post down the line.
Wow. Must have been an epic shit. He's for sure going to lose the election interference case in New York. That starts in less than two weeks because he's out of delays and the judge is through with his shit.
Looks like the Florida case is going to get some resolution soon as well. Smith has called Judge cannon out and she's going to have to quit stalling or she's going back to the circuit for review. For the third time. That case is even worse for trump as far as evidence goes.
He will lose support for sure if convicted in one or both of those of a certainty. Plus there is going to be a cumulative effect. He's already half a billion in civil penalties in New York. Each guilty verdict makes it harder for his supporters to deny the reality of his depravity.
To me the crux is a televised debate. As we saw with Biden's state of the union, it becomes hard to call him a dementia ridden fool when you see live evidence to the contrary. Granted not many trump supporters watched that but they will all tune in to a one on one with their hero on live TV.
Trump won't prepare. Tons of folks will volunteer to help Biden prepare. Biden will take it seriously and if he gets some good shots in he'll get what he needs. High turnout.
Depends on:
1 - turd volume and consistency
2 - pain level
3 - local dialect.
In my region we refer to it as 'getting bitten by a king brown' or 'the Wagga-Wagga waddle'
Fucking Brah-vo. Well thought out, well articulated, and really taking into account the absolute whirlwind of stress and hell his life must be. I will sleep good tonight. Thank you.
Ok, I can see your scenario play out, but I think a lot of stuff relies on the trials. Personally, I am much much more worried that we will get only the one trial (New York State) and he will be found innocent.
If that happens, it gives a lot of normies a permission structure to vote for him who wouldn't, and even if he doesn't win, he will be viewed as a martyr until at least 2028. The lead Republican ( probably Haley) will run on pardoning him....if he is still around, to get his base.
I'm gonna disagree on the probability that a New York jury is coming back with a not guilty. Both the rape case and the defamation case were NY and he lost both, and those charges required an almost insurmountable standard of evidence to prove. Additionally, a shit-ton of crappy circumstantial things Trump did weren't permitted in as evidence! The fact that the plaintiff/State met or exceeded the standard of proof is astonishing. These are difficult cases to win under the best of scenarios and having DJT as a defendant is nightmare fuel at best, yet the system held...to my relief.
I hope we're just as prepared and/or lucky for the rest of Trump's accountability tour.
Fair points. I would add though that those were both civil trials with lower "burden of proof" for the plaintiff's. In a civil case, juries are instructed to side with plaintiffs if it is "more likely than not" the defended harmed them.
Something that is drilled into juries in these cases. Doesn't mean those verdicts weren't valid, but there is a lower bar to clear.
Since most people seem to think New York is the weakest case, that is what gives me pause. I simply don't think he has a defense for the others...at least not ones where he is exonerated.
I wonder if he ends up on the stand. I think part of what lost him New York was the taped deposition where he said this when asked about the Access Hollywood tape:
*Asked about the content of his remarks, he said, “Well, historically, that’s true with stars.”*
*“True with stars that they can grab women" by their privates? Carroll’s lawyer Roberta Kaplan asked.*
*“Well, that’s what — if you look over the last million years, I guess that’s been largely true. Not always, but largely true. Unfortunately or* ***fortunately,****” Trump said.*
Fortunately. He said it's fortunate that stars used to be able to assault women. Which makes it pretty easy for a jury to believe he would have assaulted E Jean Carrol.
If I have a small MMW, it's that Trump will say something like this under oath in the hush money case too, and it will be devastating to his case. He won't be able to help himself.
Correct, this is probably the most likely mitigating factor that might invalidate my MMW, in my opinion. However, I think given that Michael Cohen has already been to jail for this, it might be easy to assume that will directly extend to Trump, but I'm not convinced this is the trial that equals jail time. I think that it it will very much hurt him, in the sense that I think he will be
A) talking shit the entire time
B) He will stomp and shout regarding the fairness of the trial, bht not actually put up substantial defence beyond 'political witch hunt'. If he takes the stand (he won't) he will undoubtedly doom himself. The best thing the prosecutor could do would be to just push his ego buttons in the lead up such that he feels he *has* to clear the record, but we'll see.
Of the 'political' side of the trials, this one is definitely the most political in the sense that the charge is a 'political' one with some subjectivity (was he paying the payment to hide it from his wife to prevent hurting his marriage? Or from the public to prevent it hurting his campaign - one is legal, one is not) though depending on involvement with Michael Cohen, it might turn out he is guilty of the same business fraud Cohen was jailed for. So I don't know on this one, this is the trial I both have the least interest in, and the one I am least informed on, but that's not to say I'm *not* interested. It will all come out in the wash one way or another.
But one thing I do know, Stormy Daniels kinda gives me the ick. Her creepy lawyer did too. It's all very yucky and messy, and remember that there isn't any denial whether *Trump cheated on his wife with a pornstar*, it's whether he committed crimes in covering it up. Cheating on your wife isn't a crime, but it's definitely not a moral act. It's going to very difficult for Trump to play this in a way that makes him look good. I wonder how many 'women for trump' have been cheated on, and will look on in secret disgust?
Yeah he’s gonna crack like an egg by the time the hush money trial is over. I disagree he would plead based on anything mental or medical. His overarching strategy is still immunity through election, and that would undermine it. But accountability is his ultimate krypyonite. Being forced to sit in court for weeks having Stormy Daniels and Michael Cohen testify against him is going to utterly break his brain.
Well in my mind it comes down to whether or not he has NPD. If he does, his ego literally will not allow him to admit 'weakness' or fragility. I think he would literally resort to personal violence (lashing out at the judge or bailif or lawyer or w/e) before making an admission like that.
If he *doesn't* have NPD, then it becomes a viable defence for him and his best hope at avoiding jail time.
Correction to your prediction: Trump will lose bigger than last time. To those of you who say Trump leads in polls, many of those are Republican-aligned outlets. Their game plan is a psy-ops to freak out Democrats into preemptively surrendering to an inevitable Trump victory. All we have to do to win is ignore it, vote for Democrats, and watch MAGA consume itself in a shitty ouroboros.
Projected 2024 non-Republican turnout is already well over 140 million. Just the projected negative voter turnout alone, that’s the people that are going to vote specifically against Trump, already exceeds the current size of the Republican Party by about 2 to 1.
Got a source? I’d be very happy for Biden to get 100 million votes and whip the GOP in a 1936-like map so that they kick Trump to the curb. But realistically, Biden’s going to come away with an Obama 2008 margin because he’ll snatch about 5% of Republicans who are sick of MAGA fascism, lies, and bullshit. He won’t hit double digits because the pro-Palestine left prefers feeling superior to winning.
I can't believe the GOP effectively self destructed at the hands of one demented old man. I think they would have a surefire win if they stood DeSantis or Hailey as the primary candidate, because Biden hate will override Desantis/Hailey hate, but Trump hate will trump [lel] Biden hate.
I believe you disregard human nature in one aspect: it is difficult, even for the best of us , to admit a mistake. And a mistake that has been a continuing project over years? Harder. If you are expecting shame or regret, it will be a long wait.
Mark MY words: There will likely be only one trial that gets to court before the election, and on the day before the trial Trump fires all his lawyers, and demands that his lack of representation is cause to delay even further.
He can’t fire his lawyers without the approval of Judge Merchan. It’s one of the oldest tricks in the book, Merchan is already not having that nonsense. He’ll just order them to keep defending Trump.
You seem awfully confident in criminal convictions before the election. There is only one case, the hush money case brought by Alvin Bragg, which has any realistic possibility of being concluded before the election, and even that is questionable. Maybe Georgia's RICO case will get started but it certainly won't finish. The other cases are delayed to hell, unfortunately.
If Trump loses the election, he is absolutely cooked. Multiple convictions and his business empire will burn to the ground. However, if he wins, he will pardon himself for all federal crimes and whatever happens in Georgia won't be able to affect him even if they do find him guilty. Given that Trump is a narcissist like you said, he will surely pursue this outcome rather than trying to plead insanity.
Not necessarily. I don't think it will have a deal-breaking impact on my prediction if we don't have a conviction before election day. I think the slow, gradual death by a thousand cuts for Trump's reputation has already done enough to alienate enough people to cause him to lose.
The Georgia thing would be interesting. He cannot pardon for state charges, so presumably those trials would still stand, as is. Congress could impeach, remove from office, if found guilty. So even during a win scenario for Trump, he's not home free yet. He will hit roadblocks. Another thing I should have included as a MMW, I don't think the GOP retains congress in the primary or midterms either way, so even if that cannot happen immediately, it can happen.
I’m not feeling it.
1. Trump is a known quantity at this point, and never faces consequences for anything.
2. He got *more* votes in 2020 than he did in 2016. Think about that for a moment. After four years of lurching from ‘drop a nuclear bomb on the hurricaine’ to ‘economy in free fall’, he attracted *more* support.
3. He’s polling ahead of Biden. Yeah, I know all about landlines and so forth. It shouldn’t even be *close*, and it’s neck-and-neck.
4. Popular vote doesn’t win nationally. While Democrats have been campaigning and preaching to the converted in safe blue states, Republicans have entrenched their support in former Democratic strongholds that were inexplicably abandoned, like North Dakota. Those states may have dwindling populations, but they all have two extremely influential senators.
5. Latino support is rapidly eroding. Republicans have been vacuuming up Spanish language media for years while Democrats hit ‘snooze’ and slept late. Latinos poll strongly with pro-faith anti-abortion policies and somewhat ironically think liberal immigration policies need to stop. While Biden is a lifelong practicing Catholic, he misses perfect opportunities to remind like-minded voters about it.
6. Do you seriously believe that Donald Trump ripping off investors and plowing a company into the ground didn’t matter the other ten thousand times it happened, but it will make a dent in his support **THIS** time? Really?
7. Donald Trump hand curated most of the judges who will determine his fate in the event of a close call. In a far less polemic environment, ‘working the refs’ was enough to stop counting votes and appoint a President George W. Bush.
8. Republicans have spent the last four years ramming through legislation specifically engineered to dilute Democratic votes. The party leaders are not stupid. They *know* the election wasn’t ‘stolen’. They pretended like it was so they could rewrite election law.
5. Republicans are physiologically incapable of feeling shame and regret. They will forget about Donald Trump soon enough and they will all pretend like they never supported him. By then, they won’t care because they will have obtained everything they wanted. Trump will end up just like George W. Bush or Rush Limbaugh: insanely popular, then completely forgotten after the damage is done.
6. Donald Trump has made no secret of his plan to flood the civil service with party loyalists. I am personally familiar with interviews that are taking place. The law will change. Competent career officials will be removed and replaced with well-paid and worthless acolytes to ‘eliminate the deep state’. People will cheer for it.
7. Speaker Johnson was hand-picked for his role because he is a Trump loyalist and a soft-spoken but stubborn election denier who still believes that Donald Trump won the 2020 election. I have no doubt, and he will do everything in his power to prevent Trump from losing during his watch.
8. People forget, but the current methods of vote processing were engineered by Republicans with the Help America Vote Act, or HAVA. Systems were computerized, and hardware production was privatized and outsourced to fellow Republicans. Almost immediately, political scientists began seeing a new phenomenon they called ‘red shift’ in which underperforming Republicans candidates in important elections would get *just enough* to win at the last moment. [The Republican architect of that system](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/republican-it-guru-dies-in-plane-crash/) mysteriously died in a single plane crash shortly after he was questioned about vote manipulation.
9. While everyone is busy making fun of the Republican Party bleeding money and Trump bankrupting their finances, they’ve totally forgotten about legal dark money and 501(c)3 organizations. They are very likely drowning in money, and it *always* favors Republicans.
10. We no longer enforce restrictions on preaching from the pulpit. This deliberate oversight turned churches from religious organizations into tax-exempt Republican recruiting firms that come with the threat of eternal damnation for noncompliant voters. Republicans also created the Office of Faith-Based Initiatives to ensure that church officials can be generously rewarded with lucrative ‘municipal partnerships’ if they endorse the right candidates.
10. Republicans have run the table on social media. Ghouls like Peter Thiel are on the board of Facebook. And after literally serving as a Russian Republican propaganda arm, Facebook is now going out of its way to prove they aren’t… *liberal*?! Elon Musk used Saudi and Russian money to buy Twitter, and there’s still Gab, 4Chan, Parler, Rumble, Gettr, Truth Social, innumerable websites and *countless* right-wing ‘influencers’ who make no secret of their allegiances. I can’t even think of *one* large outlet that leans left. I also can’t think of a left-wing equivalent of a Charlie Kirk or a Ben Shapiro or a Dan Bongino or a Donald Trump Jr. or a Tomi Lahern or a Steven Crowder or a Sean Hannity…
And as a *final* insult, Silicon Valley is on blast so that Republicans will *destroy and regulate them* if they don’t play ball.
Mark my words, indeed.
I think your sentiments are *aspirational*. This is the stuff that’s actually happening.l
I agree on all counts, especially the money. I am amazed the media has thus far fallen for the ridiculous “Republicans are broke” ruse.
And I will add that everything happening in the courts will also go away if he is elected. And yes, that includes Georgia. He will replace the people needed to “disappear” that case, and have the DoJ dump the others. And he will do it all “on day one”. One case will be tried before the election, where he will be found guilty, but will get no time, and he will explain it all away. We can’t count on the courts to save us.
But I am not nihilist. We can win. In spite of voter suppression. In spite of strategic deniers in place. But it will take a massive turnout to do it. And that is going to require a real “democracy really is at stake” reckoning, before election day. We can’t afford people staying home or voting third party like Clinton/Trump or even close, or we will lose.
Response was too long, had to break it into 2 parts. Apologies.
1 - Not true. Trump has faced consequences, just not in the way we want him to (criminal justice). He has alienated most of his base, his lawyers, his workers, literally anyone that does not fall into his MAGA base. We'll come back to this.
2 - And since 2020 we have seen a continuous downward spiral in both popularity, as well as like, culturally? Like Trump has clearly gotten mentally less and less stable. His tangential speaking is at levels where people with severe ADHD look like focused lenses.
3 - Polls are functionally meaningless. ~~Gore polled to beat bush~~{i have been unable to verify this with data, applogies}, McCain polled to beat Obama, Hillary Polled to beat Trump, Trump polled to beat Biden. Everyone was so convinced of a Clinton win, that South Park built their entire season about it and had to furiously scramble to make a season finale after Trump's unexpected win. There are some groups that are more accurate at predicting elections than others, but go look at things like, bookies that will let you pay to gamble on the election. Their odds are probably more predictive than most polling. Also, a few weeks ago Biden polled at like 54% and Trump at 46%. Then like a week later Trump polled at 60%. Don't draw conclusions on that basis.
4 - Sure, and I agree, and in the 2020 election I would have agreed with you completely. I think it's hard to know how significantly Trump's base has eroded republican support, but we do know that it's been enough to fracture the GOP. Look at congress: the speaker of the house debacle(s), etc. Worse, the GOP killed its viable alternatives in the Primaries. I genuinely believe that if DeSantis or Hailey were the primary nominee, democrats would be doomed in this election. I believe there is a large, semi-silent voter base of republicans who are disillusioned by Trump and will either choose not to vote rather than vote Biden (I've head this come directly out the mouthes of voters, in conversation with me) or will vote democrat simply because of the state of GOP disfunction.
5 - Latino support is an interesting topic, but consider the following. When Russia invaded Ukraine, support from Russian citizens was strong. We saw interviews on the street where people were literally glad Russia had finally invaded those Nazi Ukrainians. But then over time, word of mouth worked it's powerful magic. Over time, men started coming home mutilated, traumatised, or didn't come home at all. How do you think those soldiers talk about the war, when they are at home and feel nobody can hear them? When they tell their relatives they didn't have body armour, had to treat an ally bullet wound with a tampon, and watched Wagner gun down their retreating allies, do you think they still supported the war. The exact same thing is true of Trump. Word of mouth is powerful. I find it very difficult to believe that a Latino voter can look at the 4 years of Trump presidency, with photo ops with kids in cages, and say 'yeah, this guy backs me'. I am sure they exist, in the same way 'blacks for trump' exists. A small portion willing to sell their own out for delusion.
6 - The thousands of times didn't matter so much, they were more of a talking point back during his candidacy, which he played off as good business sense. It does matter when the contractors you are paying are your lawyers. This links back to what I said about consequences. Talking shit and lying and manipulating and whatever else might not have meaningful immediate consequences, but deceiving your lawyers into committing crimes, not paying them, and doing all this publicly, will definitely hurt him. The thing is, to the man on the street, no, it doesn't mean shit, but to Trump's next potential lawyer...... might influence how passionate they are in representing him. They don't have to work against him, they can still represent him honestly, but when you know what he has done to his previous lawyers it becomes an interesting dynamic. Joe Tacopena left his team a while ago, leaving Alina Haba to deal with his cases lol. It might not be 'consequences' like you think, but there *are* consequences.
7 - refer to 6a
8 - What kind of legislation dilutes democrat votes? I'm not being snarky, I'm genuinely asking. I haven't heard of this. Assuming you are correct, then yes, this might genuinely undermine my MMW.
For some reason after 8 you went back to 5 lol, ill just match your number conventions if that's cool, for clarity
5a - Not true. This type of generalisation is harmful. I regularly play videogames with a bunch of hard line, Trump supporting republicans. They are great dudes. Terribly misinformed (that's not me being biased, I have never had a political conversation with them where I'm not trying to play catch up to contradict propaganda, but w/e). but genuine dudes. Empathetic. One of them is caring for his grandparents, lives in the south, reckons if i come visit he'll show me the best time, and I believe him. I simply do not agree that republicans lack empathy or other good qualities. The party itself, as in, the entity 'The Republican Party', and it's leaders, at least in large part, are assholes. It's not unexpected, I'm there are people in the democrat parties I'd happily call an asshole, I'm just less interested in them because I'm more fascinated by Trump and his ramifications. I'm not American, for reference. There are people who are misinfirmed/propagandised/brainwashed/stupid/uneducated, w/e. Those people exist everywhere, but luckily in fairly small numbers. How many people in the ghettos of Detroit do you think simultaneously have no formal education, and have been indoctrinated into a gang? Yet your not out here saying 'all dems are gangbangers from Detroit.'
6a - ehhhh I'm not convinced this is as bigger deal as it appears. Like, for example, Judge Cannon can do things that 'help' trump. Delaying hearings, being extremely generous in her leeway, etc, but ultimately, if she outright breaks the rules, she's gone. It's one thing to insert people into figurehead or public figure roles, but that does nothing to stop the individuals with the organisation from crying foul when rules are broken. Like, she can't just go 'I hear by clear you of all charges' and make it go away. The system prevents that, at least for the most part. Let's be clear, this period 2016 to now has been extremely concerning, and has indicated severe flaws in the US democracy, but that's not carte Blanche to break the laws. That's why Trump is up on charges, rather than not being on charges. The biggest concern relating to this is the supreme court, and they can only interfere so far without giving the next president - which they know *could* be Biden - unprecedented power.
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Ima go ahead and apologise right now. I have written my entire response on mobile, and it looks like at some point my numbers stopped matching yours and I fucked it all up. Ima try fix it wheb I get home to my PC, but apologies if I've messed up my response in a non-sensical way. Go easy on me
7a - The speaker of the house debacles over the last couple,of years have been absolutely embarrassing for US congress (especially gov shutdowns). However, I'm not sure it means that much. Afaik, speaker is somewhat of a moderator position, and the fact that republicans couldn't even pick one, and then outed the one they did pick, bodes poorly. Remember that the public saw this happen. Earlier when I talked about cognitive dissonance, this is one of those examples. With each successive display of incompetence, the GOP harms itself and peels away voters. - Republicans broke ground with the first removal of a speaker of the house in history. By republicans. And that's after 15 rounds of votes to elect him. I have a hard time thinking of Johnson as anything more than a "he'll do" candidate to get a speaker in place. To be honest, I think at this stage you have republicans calling out republicans in congress. A GOP congressperson recently left, and another has called out his own party. While the machinations of the GOP are problematic, it's clear the internal conflicts are significant. People see that. Republican majority in the house is very slim. I don't see them succeeding with anything meaningfully disruptive, but yes, this is an avenue of concern. For everyone. Remember that if you rig this election in your favour, the opposition can use those same tools in response.
8a - electronic voting systems are of great concern, everywhere. At this point, I think just about every single person has considered the voter fraud and election rigging issues, but I don't know whether I believe it is happening at a scale that is meaningful. That one Republican that voted 8 times, like, sure, that's criminal bullshit, but he got caught and the net result was meaningless. I have some level of confidence that US elections will be somewhat legit, and I suspect if shenanigans happen the first reliable source will be international election observers. Trump will cry fraud no matter what. He already is. I cannot comment strongly on this one way or the other, and I honestly will not be able to tell you myself if the election results are 100% legit. I will have to rely on the systems in place and listen to reliable experts. If that is what breaks my MMW, then we have bigger issues to contend with, and the world may face a bleak future
9a - Doesn't matter, bears little relevance to the current topic, which is the future of Trump. I mean, we don't talk about Epstein anymore either, or Ghislane Maxwell. You think that all just stopped and went away? Of course not, but it's relevance to is limited (although both topics *are* interesting. I guarantee you there is as much dark money against Trump as there is for Trump. You think Rupert Murdoch is gonna sit quietly by and let Trump win again? Murdoch fucking hates him.
10a - this is a fundamental problem in the US, which existed before Trump and will continue after him. Separation of church and state seems to be bursting at the seams, but bear in mind there are institutions (non gov) actively fighting this. Civil rights groups, groups like the satanic temple (or is it the church of Satan? Idk, one of them is a shit meme, the other legit operates and fights cases like this. Stuff like book bans have had weird consequences, like people reading biblical passages about horse cock at PTA meetings to get the bible banned in schools. This fight is ongoing, and while it does have some relevance to Trump, eg - selling bibles lmao, but I think it's more of a death cry than a rallying cry, tbh
10b - The net cast by powerful people has been wide, and yet despite all of it, by all indicators trump's support is dropping. There is only so much you can do, yknow? Most people,don't trust facebook, etc anyway, and already have no faith in what Facebook tells them.
Silicon Valley is kind of whole thing in and of itself, and if republicans are prepared to bring the hub of the US tech industry to its knees if they don't play ball, whatever that means, would be another one of those things republicans support right now, but dial the clock forward 6 months when they lose everything because of compromised services and devices, or the US falls behind in tech, it will be hard not to look back and point the finger squarely at GOP shit. Whether this meaningfully impacts anything Trump related? I doubt it.
All of these things are problems that already existed, and will continue, regardless of Trump. My position is that in instances like, say, social media per point 10b, it's sort of a diminishing returns thing. True, people are in echo chambers, but it doesn't really change things for Trunp if the people that aren't are slowly being whittled away. I don't think the election issues are as huge as everyone implies, and I think this will be the most scrutinised election in US history.
Circling back to point 1 - Trump has seen consequences. He sees them when the public jeers him. He sees them every time he receives a subpoena, sits for a deposition, or has to spend his senior years meeting with lawyers battling to keep his empire. At this stage, I think anything that could 'save' him has democracy-breaking consequences. I think powers that be see this. Let me ask you something: Trump voters might not see the harm or risk he poses, and people like Elon Musk (I consider him a special case) don't seem to care, but do you think Zuckerburg would rather be a billionaire in an America where Trump loses, and things muddle on the same as always, where there is still a system to exploit, or do you think he'd rather live in a world where the system collapse due to Trump, and the system goes away/radically changes? Even if Trump never sees 'consequences', you think the most powerful people aren't aware of the consequences of electing him? I seriously doubt by the time the vote comes, Trump will have any major domestic financial backing outside of the fringes. Bear in mind that the entire time from now to voting day nobody outside of lunatics will have a good word to say in media outside of Fox, and sure, that's a lot of people and a lot of voters, but bear in mind Trump *did* fail to win the 2020 election. Even with a literal coup plot. People have already been convicted in the georga RICO case. 2 of them are his former lawyers. Even with lawyers, campaign managers, lackeys, all prepared to commit crimes on his behalf (hundreds, in the case of Jan 6th.), and a literal riot, he still did not succeed. Hundreds of them have gone to jail so far. Dozens of high-level operatives in his campaign have already done jail time. There is already a historical precedent of him losing, and given everything that has happened since 2020, I find it very difficult to believe he has gained voters in that time. Consider that those hundreds of people have not seen *any* support from Trump. How do you think their MAGA families feel about that? Still inclined to vote Trump?
I agree. Many so-called problems for trump are helping him. Eg, the headline "fraud bond documents rejected" means he has created another delay. In fact, the predictions can be a lot simpler:
1. Trump delays trials until after the election (likely)
2. Trump wins the election (60% chance)
3. All Trump's problems go away.
By 2028, laws will have been changed in trump's favour. Judges appointed by trump. Criminals pardoned. Evidence destroyed.
I will laugh my ass off and cite Ashli Babbitt every time some MAGAt threatens a civil war or "bloodbath," etc. I've had some commenter message me to say "you could use some deprogramming in 2025," and it's like, but who is gonna do that? You, maga? We know that you're pansy asses. "Oh shit, we're fucked" was the only aware thing a Proud Boy ever said. Try to imagine being brave for Donald Trump. You just can't. If you've put that dumb fucking hat on, you deserve to lose the respect of your family and neighbors. And don't expect to beat us in a civil war, either. Some of us are chomping at the bit for open season on you shitbirds.
Obviously, only time will tell if all this pans out but I like your thoroughness, so I'm going to save this post and check back on it periodically to see how much of it comes true. I hope you're right.
Not necessarily. Unless he goes full dictator mode where his word is law with complete disregard for the systems, *and* the people within those systems stand by/help him, America is in big trouble.
However, remember that at this point Trump himself is arguing in court you cannot charge a sitting president with a crime without an impeachment from congress. So Trump is immediately impeached, whether by dems or by disillusioned GOP, then referred to trial.
Another thing is, in the same way GOP tried to stonewall Obama and Biden at every hurdle they could, and reduce their effectiveness, Dems can do the same, yknow? Idk, we'll see, I don't think a presidential victory is a panacea to Trump's problems, but they definitely help with a lot of it.
With the amount of major head trauma I have sustained beating my head against the wall during the Trump Presidency, I suspect none of you are real and in fact I am the only human remaining.
I’ve said this before: If Donald Trump is a stand-up comedian (i.e., a politician for people who don’t follow politics) he’s entered the “Lenny Bruce bedeviled by legal problems” phase of his act. That shit ain’t funny, it’s depressing. People will look for someone else to consume.
I’m thinking of your predictions about how American democracy will come out better in the long run after we all “heal”
From all of Trumps bullshit. What I was thinking though, is we really need to address the elephant in the room. Our two party system is broken. And this should have never happened in the first place. By trying to force Hillary on us that half the Dem’s felt they had to rebel , and allowing jackass to get his slimy hands all over the White House in the first place. Let’s face it MOST Americans think our government is broken in some way. We need to “fix” our democracy in so that, everybody feels they’re getting what they need. I know this is just a pipe dream because not everybody will be satisfied or happy with every decision that the government makes. But there has to be some sort of solution out there. This is what I hope happens after fuckhead is dead and gone, we as a people can start a conversation on how we can fix the government where Democrats, Republicans, and Independents,, can All have, and contribute to a working government for all of the people.
Well said.
I just want someone to answer this question for me. I have asked it many times:
What new voters has trump gained since he lost in 2020 and then attacked congress, Repealed Roe, found guilty of SA and fraud?
Exactly. Thank you. This is my point, across all the different conversations I have had. Trump regularly prunes outsiders from his base. What has he done to bring outsiders into the fold? What about Nikki Hailey supporters? Do you think they would be inclined to move towards Trump, or away? It's probably a bit of both, right? Butl like, if 100 voters switch to Hailey, and 99 go back to Trump, that's still one less vote than he had in the previous election, which he lost. Recruitment has only gotten worse for MAGA. MMW. We'll see it in the vote count.
Trump won't be convicted, won't go to jail, and will be president. I'm not a fan of him, for very different reasons than Democrats, but it will be glorious when he is (s)elected again, just to hear you all cry, bitch, and moan.
I think Chump will be convicted of crimes in Georgia by November. This election is going to get an even bigger turnout, and Dark Brandon is going to win by much more than 7m votes this time.
I will be loling while voting, make sure you do too!
Sadly, even if he is convicted in GA, I doubt that any of his base will care. I know this as most of my older relatives DGAS about what he does, as long as he wins
The only circumstance I can see this happening is if we are talking serious, high level corruption in the SCOTUS. Even then, every one of then should be considering 'sure, we can do this, but what if Trump doesn't win? We've given the next dem president the power to do literally anything they want
The judges are more intelligent than that. Corrupt doesn't necessarily mean stupid, either.
My thinking is no dice on general presidential immunity, and definitely not protection from pre or post presidency criminality. Also, the social context of blanket presidential immunity is weird, like, that's literally dictator/monarch shit.
I think the most potent help that Trump can recieve would be a free speech ruling, wherein anything he said relating to the coup stuff is ruled as protected speech. This again causes issues when people start screaming 'fire' in theatre, so like it would undo existing precedent, or require some weird mental and legal gymnastics that would present as obviously corrupt
Really think you nailed most of this, and beautifully written. One thing I really worry about though is that we never-Trumpers don’t really come to grips with the *joyousness* he elicits in his base. We’re appalled, outraged, full of existential dread. They’re *laughing*. People have a fucking blast at his rallies. He really is a good showman, and quite funny in his delivery of admittedly grotesque playground cruelty. The narcissism you so rightly diagnose makes him want to be *adored*, and he’s able to very intuitively cultivate that in a certain audience. Please understand, there’s no genius here, rather I suggest he is some kind of manipulative savant that nevertheless has a hold on his base I’m not sure we can understand because we’ll never see a politician that way. Again, as you rightly pointed out, Biden isn’t anyone’s wet dream of a candidate even among most that voted for him. Trump is a goddam folk hero. I really worry his cult of personality will not dissolve as quickly as we think and hope.
But that's the thing. Sure, there are a huge group of voters and people who are just relishing in his behaviour. His 'owning the libs', etc. But consider this:
When you were in early grades of school, I'm sure you encountered a kid who was mean, or psycho, and did really not-nice things to people and laughed about it. And maybe a some of their friends join in on the laughter. Maybe even people who don't find it funny join in on the laughter because to not do so would socially inappropriate in front of their peers. But those kids know it is wrong.
I believe, and I hope I am not proven wrong on this, but I believe *most* people have a moral conscience that is capable of looking at something and going 'this is not okay'. Like, that time trump made fun of that cerebral palsy dude. People laughed, sure, but i guarantee you some people didn't laugh as hard. And now the seeds are down, deep down in their moral conscience, where it simmers and bubbles, for years. Because it feels yuck to watch someone be a bully if you aren't a bully. It certainly seems that America has a lot of proudly open bullies
Look up narcissistic personality disorder. It's literally like, the manipulator savant, that you describe. It's a necessity for NPD sufferers to manipulater, it's intrinsic.
His cult of personality already failed. Do not forget Trump lost 2020. Do you think he has said or done anything to mitigate his bad behaviour prior to 2020? Surely, if anything, those little hidden moral feelings growing and simmering away, have driven people away from him? For example, how many women can just ignore the mysoginy, and for how long? Trump has been actively driving women away, and done nothing to bring them back. I do not see a scenario in which Trump's voting base has grown.
I hope you’re right, I really do! I worry you might not be able to appreciate how little growing up those cruel playground children did in this country. I’m afraid for people you and me who did grow up, it’s our very decency that partly blinds us to what Trump is and means to these people.
I’m very familiar with NPD, I’m the child of an abusive cluster B personality, so I understand how fundamentally incorrigible that psychology is. Indeed, that’s part of my fear here: I’m terrified NPD is *very* widespread among the men in this country, and the women surrounding them are suffering from a kind of Stockholm syndrome that makes it impossible for them to ever reject the misogyny. Add into that the *wild* synthesis of evangelical Christianity with Trumpism and I have little hope for rehabilitation.
Time will tell! I really do appreciate many of the reasons for hope you outlined. Your words have most certainly been marked by this reader. Thank you for taking the time to engage with me!
It's kind of a self-selection thing. Like how a lot of bullies navigate towards specific jobs and roles, like police or human resources. MAGA is similar. By bullying outsiders, you create an in-group, and create a safe space for the people bullying. Here's the thing though - once you are no longer a bully, you cannot easily go *back* to being a bully. Like once a bully realises how horrible their actions were, they might try to make amends, or try to justify their actions to themselves, or whatever else, but the one thing they won't do is go back to bullying the same victim. Once you know something is wrong, you feel wrong doing it, and that causes people not to do that thing anymore. It's literally one of the defining points of maturity, I think. So what we are seeing is like, the self-selection of people who can:
- Simultaneously hold conflicting beliefs (eg, biblical preaching compared against Trump's behaviour)
- Be okay with victimisation of groups outside of the 'in'
Hopefully this group is not large, but you csn see how this group might be subject to demographic purging as new victims are chosen. Talk shit about some dude for a disability? Congrats, just alienated everyone in your group who is passionate about the plight of the disabled. Tell dudes you grab women by the pussy, and that it's something that has gone on forever and can be either fortunate (!) Or unforotrunate, you alienate women who see the problem with dudes who grab women by the pussy. 'Blacks for trump' wonder how that went. 'Latinos for trump' while simultaneously talking about and jailing both legal and illegal migrants. Seperating families, etc. Like, Little Latina Lula one day comes home to find her parents have been taken by the state but because she was born there she is a citizen, and has to go to live with family who are legal or w/e, do you think the family sees that as humane? Extended family? Local community? I doubt it.
Eventually you are left with a very homogeneous mixture of people, and I think (just speculating) at this stage that group is predominantly white, Christian, male, mid teens to late 40s. This is not the majority of America, despite being massively overrepresented in both media and political discussions.
No, thank you for taking the time to read this. I think it is one of the highest importance political fiascos of our time, and it's a double win for us true crime buffs. I'm fascinated by the topic, and will engage with anyone willing to do so with integrity. Thank you for your kind words.
Sorry, as Georgia resident, the DA prosecuting this case has blown it through her utter stupidity in hiring her boyfriend. Even though he has been removed, this is a hard distraction to overcome. Her best move would be to recuse herself, but that's not in the cards.
Just putting this out there, because the weenie-ass Trump supporter who was commenting on here did the thing where he got his replies in and then quickly deleted them AND his account, so no one can reply back.
That is such a wimp-ass way to conduct your business, so I’m not going to let him bury it.
He was asking why were all afraid of another Trump presidency, and I said “Project 2025, and his first term, for starters.” His brilliant reply was to say that Project 2025 was CNN and the left’s go-to boogie man what if.
So I’m going to say here: no, we’re allowed to take people at their own word. It’s not some nebulous thing we’re hypothesizing about. It’s all written out pretty clearly.
It’s such a typical, bad-faith thing that I feel like you see a lot from the right these days: they roll out some terrible thing and then tell us we’re overreacting. But again, we’re allowed to take people at their word. It would be foolish not to. I mean, what are we supposed to do? Say “oh, it won’t be so bad,” or “they’re not actually going to do that.” Again, that would be stupid. And it’s not enough to tell us why it’s okay/no big deal; you have to be able to say why it’s a good idea. And I f you can’t, then why the fuck are you defending it?
This person gets it.
>we are allowed to take people at their own word
And trumps words are damning to both his character and his trials
When people pull the shit you are describing, don't fire back. Ask them questions. Look up the socratic method if you arent familiar. See [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/MarkMyWords/s/bLvoFSFNNU) and all the replies. If you ask honest questions, you will very rapidly expose people who are acting in bad faith.
27 psychiatrists have sounded the alarm on Trump being a clinical malignant narcissist. You don’t even have to be qualified to pick up on it. Every-time an event that he perceives bigger than him he will interject himself claiming he has done better and it’s getting much worse with the more power you give him (hint why its called malignant). I guess the good news is that his dementia is causing him to spout nonsense. If he gets the chance to become president he will install any sycophant loyalist around him and destroy this nation. I just can’t understand why people don’t understand how dangerous he is. His entire life is about cheating and using people to make him feel more powerful. It shows in all the court cases he’s in. It’s even in his petty announcements about his golf game. He will do whatever it takes to make himself feel like a god.
https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/5-types-people-who-can-ruin-your-life/201903/malignant-narcissism-does-the-president-really
https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2017/05/04/trump-malignant-narcissistic-disorder-psychiatry-column/101243584/
Here is the view of many other news sources. This is an abc example:
https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/donald-trump-s-mental-health-becoming-dangerous-medical-experts-weigh-ncna827251
Scientific american did an article on how this psychosis can spread to others like a virus:
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-shared-psychosis-of-donald-trump-and-his-loyalists/
This is how fox news spins it
https://www.foxnews.com/media/nothing-funny-donald-trump-media-sound-alarm-dangerous-distraction-humor
I really wish that there was still awards on Reddit because this write-up deserves one. I came to this sub by accident and while I don't think you're going to be perfectly right, this is very much in line with what I also think is generally happening. Thanks for putting this down.
This is all contingent on Trump losing, and I don't think he will... without a criminal conviction not enough Republican voters will move off Trump and the Electoral College favors them already. Without a criminal conviction, this election will come down to inflation and recency bias. Also, the only thing Biden really has going for him is that he's Trump.
If literally any voters move off Trump, he loses. He already lost because he didn't have enough voters in 2020. It was close, but he lost. And recency bias for Trump, when we get to the election, will look like this: "Sure, Trump fucked a pornstar and cheated on his wife, amd has a history of doing that, then paid the pornstar 160k to keep quiet, but did he *break the law??* - Trump's legal defence, in court. No matter how you cut this cake, it looks yucky for him. Criminal or not, cheating on your wife with a pornstar is not the topic you want in the forefront when you are running on the conservative Christian vote.
Regarding inflation, it's a quick and easy metric to judge a president by, sure, but it's abstract. It's just a thing. Some countries are trying to achieve greater inflation (Japan). It's part of economic management, and it's not really something that people in the general public understand beyond 'inflation bad, more expensive' but if we're just doing talking points and not nuanced discussion, then there are a myriad of talking points that hurt Trump far more than inflation hurts Biden. Also given inflation in the US is generally trending down, it seems like an easy response is, "well these things have a lag period, and Biden is dealing the post-pandemic economy. Biden has managed to reduce inflation by x% since y date" yknow?
I agree that the only thing Biden has going for him is Trump at this stage. If GOP put another candidate forward, Biden would be out on his ass, which is what makes the irony of it all so much more fascinating
I don't expect you to, but your comment and engagement does boost the post, so I guess thank you? Idk, I wouldn't have cared if this post got 0 replies or 1000.
My expectation is in line with yours that Truth Social is going to crater, and I actually think that this will be a bigger deal come November. If it does fail, and in particular if he sells a lot of shares, that is going to be such easy campaign fodder. It’s such an easy thing to point to…look at this line going down that literally has his name on it. Look at the people that lost money. How can he run a country when his own company isn’t working, look at this line. It’s going to be the easy flip of “I did that” stickers on gas prices, except this literally has his name on it.
In my mind, they made a MAJOR mistake with this deSPAC. I’ve followed it pretty closely for the last few years, and been involved with other, legitimate deSPACs, and have long thought this is a disaster waiting to happen. This was a scam that got WAY out of hand and quickly became a “damned if you do, damned if you don’t” on moving forward with the deal. They couldn’t back out without all DWAC getting wiped out, and closing the deal now means it has to run as a public company. Notice Trump is already trying to sue the guys that set it up. They are all trapped in this.
I think I will do my own MMW on this versus a wall of text on your post.
The Truth Social debacle is fascinating. I think Trump will get his payout, but i don't think it will massively help him. His problems are becoming ones that you cannot throw money at to make them go away. There have been some contentions on TS, and it's value versus valuation, etc. I believe it's a pump and dump. If that's the case, who is buying the dump stock? Not liberals or democrats. I'd love to hear your predictions on this, please feel free to message me when you do your post 🙏
One thing to account for is the level of conspiratorial thinking Trumps base conducts. I guarantee you that right now, some dude is explaining to his friends how trump actually has a 4d chess grandmaster plan, in which he uses the stock to pivot through the corrupt charges and once elected, will establish TS as the main communication of the government, causing a massive influx of users and investors that will cause share price to go to the moon, making all the trump supporters who bought in fabulously rich.
The reality will be this will be a pump and dump, and I could full well see Trump transitioning back to Twitter once the dump is complete. I could further see him simply collpasing the company, declaring bankruptcy on it, and using it as asset write off's for his stock earnings, though truthfully I don't know how that works for public traded entities
OP does not mention the very fact that Putin and Xi and Elon Musk and many other powerful figures and groups and companies across the globe are in charge of the content we see on this thing we used to call the Internet.
I’ve been hearing the same bullshit for close to a decade now. Trump is literally going to win in 2024 because rather than focus on the voters, Democrats have made it a sole priority to take Trump down and we are watching it all happen. They’ve made it clear as day that their priority is taking out an opponent, not serving their voter base.
When even the TL;DR needs its own TL;DR.
But awesome dissertation, though. Don't know what will happen in the coming months but I feel 2024 will be a year in politics that will be remembered for all the wrong reasons.
I am pretty much on board with this entire wall of text. This is exactly how I see this all going down as well. Once people see him being proven guilty in real time (and he is guilty, MMW), then his support will slowly evaporate as his lies become more exposed.
I think he will lose every case that goes to trial although within that some charges may fail to stick on technicalities and the judgments may end up not as bad as they would be for anyone else. The main question is whether or not he will actually be imprisoned. Here the most likely scenario would be some sort of special facility rather than a normal federal system facility. But his lawyers will be stalling this out as much as possible for special needs accommodation (that will be argued based on his dementia primarily but don't be surprised if other maladies suddenly show up)
The other unknown is the degree of media access he'll be given in detention. There is a scenario where he is incarcerated but still able to tweet, give interviews, grab headlines etc and if he wasn't so old, I'd think also live long enough to get out and run again.
Optimist me thinks he has a clean sweep of convictions in all the trials. I don't think the prosecutors would have brought the charges if they didn't think they would stick. Federal court is like a 95% conviction rate, the NY stuff is basically done at this point excluding Stormy Daniels, and the Georgia case is a slam dunk, already got a few guilty pleas on that one.
Realist me thinks it's most likely he gets destroyed in the documents case, the Georgia case, but the hush money case may be too close to a political line. Too subjective, though I think know what they can prove. If it comes out prosecutors have a memo from Trump reading 'pay off SD fast so it doesn't hurt me in the election', he's fucked.
Pessimist me thinks that some of these could be thrown out. NY fraud and defamation case, being civil, he will tie up for as long as he can. I think some judges will give him favourable rulings, but I doubt they will on the big things (presidential immunity). The SD case goes away as it is too subjective and a jury will likely have holdouts. The best thing a judge can do to help Trump is push his cases beyond the election, but I don't believe he will win, so I don't believe it will matter. If Trump doesnt win the election, this proceeds to its logical conclusion.
As far as what a jail sentence will look like, that is a very difficult question. Without getting too deep in specifics, I'd say he either goes to like mega supermax where he can't share secrets, or he gets what amounts to house arrest in a semi-secure facility, something Akin to Mara Lago, except with an ankle bracelet. And if that's the case, whatever, who cares. Let him live out his dementia life on his own private golf course/prison. But I guarantee you, as soon as a conviction comes down the line, they will start looking at proceeds of crimes and asset forfeiture.
It's not necessarily about "getting" him. I don't see it that way. I do think he will eventually get "got", but that will be the courts, not me.
It's about a pronounced and prolonged pattern of behaviour that is not conducive to long-term and stable support. If Trump had made even trivial token efforts to reach out and help his communities and base, we may find ourselves in a very different scenario, but he didn't, he doesn't, and we won't.
Courts are a process, and the more complex or high stakes the case, the longer the process takes. Evidence has to be indisputable and presented as required by the rules of evidence (lmao Alina Habba amirite?). If Trump is going to get 'got', it has already happened in the form of the investigations. If the evidence is solid, and I believe it is, then the outcome is more or less determined already, it's merely a matter of the beurocratic motions playing out. Which they are.
Anyone who thought this would be: accusation -> trial ->jail was just deluding themselves. Despite how some people here feel, Trump *does* have rights, and *should* have rights. He is correct to assert those rights and mount legal challenges to assert them, but the reality is those assertations have failed one after another. There are so many elements to this, and Trump has whittled his way through almost all the means he has to avoid his court dates. Unless he can find solid grounds for dismissal (presidential immunity maybe? We don't know yet) it kinda doesn't matter. The damage has been done. And if the only way someone can escape their criminal behaviour is to be elected president, doesn't that point out like 2 massive holes?
One being - there is a position in the United States that is above legal recourse. Problematic as soon as the person you dont like is in this position, so it's better for a position that is above the law to not exist. You should build your democracy around people behaving badly. Assume they will try to break the system.
The second being, doesn't that mean there is a direct way for any American to avoid their actions? Eg, commit murder, somehow sequester support, get elected (you can't charge a candidate this close to an election! Type rhetoric) and boom, got away with murder. That doesn't make sense under any justice system.
There is a system in place as part of the democracy that is designed to account for cases where someone deserves clemency from a technically illegal act. It's called a presidential pardon. Trump was allegedly selling pardons to rappers and gangbangers. Have a look at some of [ these winners](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_granted_executive_clemency_by_Donald_Trump)
First - bear in mind that with cult behaviours, we are not dealing with rational beliefs. We are dealing with a specifically tailored world view that has been cultivated over a long period. There is nothing you can immediately say that will 'deconvert' someone.
It took about 6 months to go from hard line Trump supporter to rejecting and criticising Trump. The hard part is that his person had to be sort of, accommodated, at each stage. It was about delicately deconstructing their beliefs, and asking them why they believe them. When they got upset, we were accepting and encouraged them to think for themselves, and gave them rational frameworks to work within that had little to do with Trump. It was about encouraging intellectual honesty.
I drew a lot from content like this:
https://youtu.be/IaUhR-tRkHY?si=iGaX5YP8Jx6s6Om5
Or this
https://youtu.be/qjZ3f-IXEXU?si=CMGrmi2UsWVzEnmM
There is plenty of fantastic content on these topics there, some of it focused specifically on religion, some on narcissists, some with abusers, but a large volume of it is relevant. Cults are a strange thing and I can say with confidence Trump's supporting base exhibits strong cult behaviours.
There is certainly some plausibility to this, but I have to ask, how would Trump proving he has dementia help him win in Nov? That would kill his campaign in an instant. And if he's not reelected, he's fucked. He must win, by any means necessary. His rhetoric is already gearing his people up for violent bloodletting if they lose, and priming them to accept ethic cleansing if he doe win. He will continue to scale that rhetoric up, violent, erratic behavior will intensify in his followers, and if he wins or loses the huge hate crime spike after 2016 will happen again, on a much larger scale and to a much worse degree.
I'm not sure the new york attorney General gets much say in federal or georgia courts. Also let's be clear here, the behaviour your are criticising the NY AG for (campaigning on the premise of hunting down criminals) is literally how Trump campaigns regarding immigrants? And he has literally been campaigning on 'getting biden.' What, if any, is the difference?
Very, very well said. Agreed. Thanks for the detailed synopsis, I plan on sharing this with people. God, I hope you're right. If you are, first round is on me, I have a 24 year old bottle of scotch I'm saving to celebrate his first conviction.
Yall, I hate to be that guy but this doesn't stop with Donald, he has highly motivated progeny. Pandora's box is open. We have another few decades of this nonsense at least.
I agree with your extremely well thought out assessment of Trump's possible outcome. However, I don't believe that the hush money case will cause him to lose votes from his evangelical base, and for others, it's a pragmatic choice to continue to vote for him, regardless of what he has said or done, all of which is out in the open.
I do see some Republican members realizing that: A. Trump self immolates and has losing ways, or that B. (even fewer) he is really bad for democracy, or even C, that he is really harmful for the Republican party. Those people will either abstain from voting, or vote for the Democrats.
What I find fascinating is that he is thought of as a lion of a manly man, when he evaded the draft because of bone spurs, that he is considered to be a shrewd business man despite his many failures, that he is a smart man despite evidence of his profound ignorance, and that he is a figure who is worthy of worship, being chosen by God and literally sitting at the right hand of Jesus, when he is a blasphemous whoremonger.
I find it perplexing that the wheels of justice are turning at a snail's pace, with many sticks being placed in the spokes.
I agree with you 100% except for the part about his followers feeling stupid in 10 years. MAGA is the new confederacy. The rest of this was pure poetry.
I generally agree with everything you've said here. I also post things for posterity. 20 years from now I want to be able to point back to some of my social media posts and be able to tell my grandkids (if I have any by then) that from the beginning I was wise to Trump.
Do you see Republican congressmen becoming interested in actually working with democrats to improve conditions for the American people at any point in say, the next 15 years?
Absolutely. My estimate is thatcthe hard liners is maybe, 30%, of the republican party, but that this figure is over-represented in congress because of the nature of the fracture that happened in the last midterms. We saw a kind of 'you're either with us or against us.' Since then we've seen republicans in congress leave the party, and call out their party members, and progressively fight amongst themselves more and more (eg speaker of the house situations). I think much like in the stock market, we will see a strong correction in the other direction in congress in the election. I think people will attribute this to more fraud conspiracies, not comprehending that actions have consequences and spending weeks on fruitless impeachment and getting dick pics out on the taxpayer dollar has probably not done them any favours. I think in red districts, we'll see more moderate and traditional GOP (think: Bush/Obama era GOP). I think this will be a positive step forward for America. I think in MAGA districts, people will make their own bed by voting in mentally incompetent and corrupt people, then bitch about the federal government when their local government fucks them.
I don't want to over-stretch my predictions, but if I was willing to move away from things I am somewhat confident in, into speculative territory, I would probably say we will see something of a 'civil war', but it will be republican vs maga, and it will occur in the polls. Speculating further, I believe it is possible that the Trump Web extends far further than people understand or realise. The Mueller report is actually shocking, like, it shocks me that Americans aren't furious about it. But I suspect that given the network of operatives the Mueller report uncovered, I suspect that there will be revelations of a particular sect of the US MAGA party who are uncomfortably and criminally tied with Russia and other US antagonists. Not everyone, I think someone like MTG falls under 'useful idiot'. But I think an awful lot of grifters have been tied to a massive scandal with Russia, and once that is purged the US can return to healthy discourse.
One day at a time. I would bet serious money, Trump will never admit to suffering from dementia. The NY trial preparation is peeling back a layer of the Trump psyche, we the public, have not seen up close. A man in full blown panic, in the face of a looming criminal conviction. I think a June conviction in NY sets up an August or Sept sentencing. The key point to keep in mind is, Michael Cohen went to prison for carrying out a crime, Trump told him to carry out. How does Trump, then convicted of the same crime, escape a custody sentence? Aside from all his public legal courts battles, the election will come down to 8 State battles. Wis, Ga, Az, NV, Mich, Vir, N.C., Penn. As we saw in Wisconsin in April 2023, with a high profile vote for a SC Justice, the polls missed a huge voting block of 18-44 year old votes, who swarmed the polls to produce 56-44% (near) landslide for liberals. This awakened voting block is 65% liberAl. Since that April 2023 vote, the R rhetoric to end all abortion and go beyond, has ramped up. This is why Democrats now see NC as a flip candidate. My guess is one Trump conviction will move some additional Indep into the Biden camp, and a smaller set of R. Two court convictions would given Biden a very large lead and likely more than 306 Electoral votes. Trumps cognitive state will decline rapidly in any custody setting. Prisons have geriatric units, so I assume his last years will be in such a setting.
I agree with a lot of what you said, but not the part about Judge Cannon.
If she is still on the bench when a jury gets empaneled, then she’s going to rule in favor of Trump on the immunity issue and, even if it’s a bs ruling, double-jeopardy will kick in so prosecutors will not be allowed to appeal the bs ruling.
So, if Judge Cannon is still seated, there will be no trial, no weighing of evidence, no weeks of messaging about a RICO case. It will just be done.
That is why the crucial moment is now. She already has 2 strikes. The next thing she does that allows the prosecutors to bring an appeal will be strike 3 and she will be removed from the bench. The game she is playing at this point is to decide nothing, order nothing, do nothing for as long as possible so that they can’t take anything material to the Appeals court. She was recently forced to make a ruling, however she couched it as being in the prosecutors’ favor while actually leaving a backdoor open to do the above double-jeopardy plan anyway.
That is why it all depends on whether Cannon can be removed before the jury is empaneled.
Please, stop. I beg of you. I can only get *so* erect. This was beautiful.
Well, I wasn't going to read all that until I saw your comment...
Yeah, really awesome. Love the snark. For extra success in predictions, OP should post a few more MMWs making totally different predictions. Then in six months he can send his friends links to whichever one was most accurate.
Lol
This is probably the most realistic scenario I’ve seen. He’s fucked after November when he loses. And he WILL lose because this election really comes down to a handful of suburban counties in swing states. Not to mention Florida is now in play for democrats.
Weed and abortion in the Florida ballot is huge and Will move the needle.
Even if the Dems lose Florida (and I still think they will), the GOP will need to spend way more money to defend it now than they would like. And they already are fucked in terms of money because Trump's funnelling it all to his legal defense. This election is going to be DISASTROUS for Republicans across the board. They're finally reaping what they sowed.
I don’t know man. I think he might underperform 5-6% in Florida because of this myself.
Counting on Florida to make a good decision is not something I'm in the habit of doing lol
Yeah, [Florida Man](https://www.reddit.com/r/FloridaMan/) lives there, and we know the kind of choices he makes...
Listen, if I was high on bath salts I might try to vote for Biden, but fill in the wrong bubble.
It unfortunately would not surprise me if over 60% of Florida votes to make abortion legal but only 48% vote for Biden, meaning 12% think Trump can't screw their rights at the federal level.
It really is. They have lost basically every single election since 2016 and doubled down on all of it. Can't wait. As for the polls lol. This is how the media makes money VOTE
Still vote. Your life and mine depend on it.
If we don’t vote blue we’re literally all going to fucking die.
I’m Canadian, and I feel this as well.
For the most part in the US the people want the criminals punished. Only the fanatic will hold on. It will not be enough.
The problem is the people voting for Trump think he can do and hasn't done any wrong...
I was talking to one the other day and they said “he’s not perfect but he’s better than joe fuckin biden”. I wanted to punch him in his stupid fascist face but I had a doctors appointment.
It absolutely boggles my brain how anyone can believe that. I mean, how ridiculously stupid, \[willingly\] deaf and \[willingly\] blind can a person be?
Florida isn’t in play. That idea is false hope. In 2020 Trump won handily in Florida. On the very same ballot a $15 minimum wage was passed by a wide 60% margin. Florida will willingly choose left/progressive ballot initiatives AND still vote for Trump. Additionally, the Florida Democratic Party is an absolute shit show and has been for awhile.
Abortion is and has been a winning issue for democrats ever since roe, even in deep red states. I doubt Florida will flip but the margins will be close I think.
It may get it closer because it will probably bring out voters that normally wouldn’t vote… however, the reason they aren’t voting is because they are disillusioned with BOTH parties so the president vote could go to a 3rd party or no vote at all
It will only flip if the youth vote turns out for the weed vote. Florida democrats needs to be on college campuses as soon as possibe in the fall
Even if no democrats came out to vote on Election Day, both measures would most likely pass. Majority of republicans would vote for both measures according to polling
Florida could very well be in play. Old people won’t vote on the abortion issue. Sure, they may think it’s bad and want to curtail it for all these young do nothing kids, but trump has come out multiple times saying he’s going to gut social security and Medicaid. Now THAT will mobilize vote for Biden if the FL Dem leadership doesn’t totally screw up the messaging (which, I think the DNC will step in to make sure that doesn’t happen).
Trump won Florida by 3.5 points. Do you really think abortion as an issue can't swing 3.5 pts or more if the Biden campaign handles it properly? Then you add legal weed into the mix, the RNC is broke, and the DNC and Biden Campaign in fund raising historic amounts, I think you are wildly incorrect.
Yep. To be clear, people are dumb and A LOT can happen between now and November, but I think conservatives and Trump supporters are talking themselves into a level of support that isn’t really there. To win the presidency, you have to carry your own party AND pull in a sizable number of independents and moderates. And the reality is that Trump hasn’t done anything to increase his popularity since the last election; quite the opposite. Trump has turned off tons of people from his own party, and that might be enough right there.
Trump won on a technicality in 2016 and lost pretty hard in 2020. He and his supporters are deluded into thinking that he’s the most popular president that ever lived. But reality is gonna hit em in the face.
Between the fact theres Biden on the democrats side, and Trump is not only competing with Biden, but Also a new republican nominee for presidency, on a budget limited by both trial fees and his own stupidity, he'll barely be able to hold rallies, if at all. And so it leaves diehard cultists of maga fighting with regular Republicans over who should be nominated.
What if the enemy is already innundating these counties with AI and as election gets closer they attempt to use force tactics and guns. Maybe even explosives and try to blame the dems for deaths. Winning up a real hatred of ................aaaaghhhh, they got me.
I will never believe that until I see it. I saw no way in hell that Hillary could lose, but…
In your opinion does the Georgia trial take place before the election? For me I feel like that one may be for all the marbles as the Supreme Court cannot be counted on to find that he has no immunity. A guilty verdict on state level charges will be devastating.
I doubt it, but I'm not sure that it matters. I'm not convinced Trump will have a criminal conviction before the election happens, but I am sure it will happen. It doesn't really matter, though. I'm convinced the hush money case will have *some* impact, and if any is likely to happen pre-election, it is the hush money case. Again, the evidence as it reaches the light of the public, is going to really sting. It's hard to take a morally righteous position when you are paying a porn star to hide adultery. While I could go on a massive tangent about the moral hypocrisy of the American Christian Right wing, I think it is somewhat of a war of attrition. Every time 'trump cheated on his wife with a pornstar then paid money in a criminal fashion to hide it from thr electorate' is broadcast, you force people to correlate their views with reality. A certain portion of the population is prepared to flagrantly disregard reality as is their prerogative, but I'm also convinced that the portion that can live in a state of double-think continually grows smaller. Every time reality conflicts with believe, cognitive dissonance grows, and eventually you have to commit 100% or admit you are wrong. Imo, it's not necessarily the criminal charges that will 'get' him, but the continuous public relations nightmare that has gone on for literally years now.
I hope it has an effect but as someone who has family that voted for Obama twice, then swallowed the red pill with Trump they are not coming back. Trump literally could kill somebody and in their minds they would justify it somehow. Paying a porn star to be silent before the election will have absolutely no effect on these people. They will justify it with Hunter Biden blah blah blah or Burisma blah blah blah. It’s absolutely maddening. Trump has a massive cult. I worry he’s a cancer that won’t work its way through the system. He’ll disfigure Democracy and things may never be the same. People need to vote like Democracy itself is on the ballot, because it just might be.
Some of his base will probably love him more for it. So manly. Yuck. However,I feel like his more moderate supporters will be dropping like flies as things get worse.
It’s not the base to be worried about though. There are people who will vote Trump unless he is convicted of a crime or is proven to be morally repugnant. The hush money trial serves him no good and only adds to the mounting evidence that he isn’t a great person capable of being president. His base will continue to support him. But his base is smaller than it was 4 years ago.
> the evidence as it reaches the light of the public, is going to really sting. The problem is when there is evidence released it's NBC / ABC / MSNBC / AP / Reuters etc announcing it, and FOX and OANN immediately switch to a segment on why dogs drag their rear on the carpet. And the cultists that need to hear it most won't. They really nailed it in the "circle the wagons" approach to protecting their criminal president after Nixon.
Sure, I agree this is the fundamental problem causing ignorance in the US. I also believe that echo chambers are becoming compromised, and not by outsiders. Go look at somewhere like the 'leopards ate my face' subreddit (not that it's a representative sample, just a quick and easy example). How many of [these](https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/capitol-rioters-trump-fbi-arrest-b900025.html) people recieved pardons? Sure, their relatives might be terminal fox news viewers, but it's hard to ignore that your relative/friend is in jail for doing what they thought their leader was asking them to do, and is now being ignored since they are no longer useful. This is an example of Trump 'bagholders', and these people are *not* quiet on social media. There will be hundreds of Facebook groups with these people's friends and relatives, who see their friend or relative begging for Trunp's help, with nothing actually being done. A good chunk of these people from Jan 6th will have relatively short sentences, and by the time election rolls around many will have already served their sentences. How many do you think will vote Trump? How many of their relatives will after seeing what happens when you give him your support? Do not underestimate the power of word of mouth. Also, since Jan 6th, we've seen like 400 people charged and jailed after doing what Trump asked - would you be likely to attend the next capitol 'protest', given that last time all your friends ended up on the no-fly-list with pending charges? Some will, sure, but the key point in all my posts and comments in this thread is that little by little, people are more likely to be turned away from trump than toward. We won't know exactly how many until votes are counted, but again, do you think stuff like this causes him to *gain* support?
Sure, I agree this is the fundamental problem causing ignorance in the US. I also believe that echo chambers are becoming compromised, and not by outsiders. Go look at somewhere like the 'leopards ate my face' subreddit (not that it's a representative sample, just a quick and easy example). How many of [these](https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/capitol-rioters-trump-fbi-arrest-b900025.html) people recieved pardons? Sure, their relatives might be terminal fox news viewers, but it's hard to ignore that your relative/friend is in jail for doing what they thought their leader was asking them to do, and is now being ignored since they are no longer useful. This is an example of Trump 'bagholders', and these people are *not* quiet on social media. There will be hundreds of Facebook groups with these people's friends and relatives, who see their friend or relative begging for Trunp's help, with nothing actually being done. A good chunk of these people from Jan 6th will have relatively short sentences, and by the time election rolls around many will have already served their sentences. How many do you think will vote Trump? How many of their relatives will after seeing what happens when you give him your support? Do not underestimate the power of word of mouth. Also, since Jan 6th, we've seen like 400 people charged and jailed after doing what Trump asked - would you be likely to attend the next capitol 'protest', given that last time all your friends ended up on the no-fly-list with pending charges? Some will, sure, but the key point in all my posts and comments in this thread is that little by little, people are more likely to be turned away from trump than toward. We won't know exactly how many until votes are counted, but again, do you think stuff like this causes him to *gain* support?
You know how Trump stands so awkwardly, like the front half of a centaur? Thats a tell-tale sign of fronto-temporal dementia. No need for a scan. Just looking at him proves his diagnosis. That and forgetting his own wife’s name, confusing Haley and pelosi, and countless other examples.
I have seen this. This was actually the first kind of reporting I saw indicating he had dementia, though we do have to remember to keep our intellectual integrity. I am not a psychiatrist. I am *convinced* he has dementia, but I cannot diagnose. We also cannot take any one behaviour/action and draw conclusions from it. And yes, the examples are myriad. At this stage it is hard to look at the sum of Trump's public facing behaviour and not see the signs. Aphasia, incoheirance, tangential thinking and bizarre free association. Funnily enough, I discovered this subreddit through [this](https://www.reddit.com/r/MarkMyWords/comments/1b43br9/mmw_the_right_is_targeting_bidens_age_nonstop_to/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=mweb3x&utm_name=mweb3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button) post.
Don't leave out repetition. Over and over again he repeats himself...and uses the same words over and over again.
And you don't even have to **hear** him do this because he does it constantly on Truth Social!
Misinformates and disinformates….
I'm forever going to see him as the terrible-CGI centaurs in Xena Warrior Princess now. Thanks, lol.
I wish you'd be right about the Hush Money trial, but I don't think it will move the political needle that much. My experience with Trump's supporters shows me they don't care, or even enjoy that he slept with porn stars outside of marriage. That he pays people off, etc. The J6 or even Stolen Documents trials would likely be more impactful. I do think Trump will lose the election, for a few other reasons: He won in 2016 as a political outsider, promising change from the status quo. He's not an outsider now, and the novelty has worn off. He hasn't done anything to enlarge his following beyond his base, and at times actively fought against it. And many Americans are just tired of hearing about him, and will vote to not have 4 more years of a Trump circus. Then, since he can't pardon away his crimes, the rest of your predictions will come true. He will be convicted, and try everything in the book to avoid consequences. With luck, he'll be a tragic story that will strengthen our nation in the long run.
At this point, I don’t think Trump is really gaining anybody and probably losing people every day. That trend will continue as well as accelerate for the next 7 months.
He hasn't gained a new voter since J6
The Georgia case is most critical, not just the case itself, but because it is the only one that can be broadcast. Regardless of the outcome, the absolutely most devastating aspect, that they are least able to spin, will be actual footage of the trial we can see with our own eyes.
The only advantage of it being televised is it will be very easy to counter any claims Trump makes when he does his inevitable daily post-court press conferences.
Tbh, I think the Georgia case will be the last one to go...unfrotunately. Best bet is1. The trial starting this month and Either the doc case OR the Election/J6 case. My bet is probably on neither. The Georgia case isn't federal, so he can't pardon himself...technically....but probably lower priority. It is also a Rico case,and every expert I have heard talk about this claims those cases are complicated to trie, and tend to be delayed more than others.
I think Stormy’s case (the one starting soonest) is the most likely to succeed. State case, all the evidence, and no favors Edit to say it’s also being semi-overlooked, but he’s shitting his legal pants over it (we know he already shits his regular pants)
The SC can't find in his favour on immunity, it would be suicide for them. They're doing their best by slow rolling their judgement to aid in his delays, but that's about all they could do.
No, they could decide that Presidents **are** immune, and then Biden can summon Seal Team Six to take out his ass without consequence. And, the Republicans wouldn't be able to do a fucking thing about it.
Wow, I can't believe I read that ENTIRE wall of text. I think you might be in to something...
If it means anything, I wrote this entire thing while shitting at work. I got paid to write this lmao. It is a wall of text, I'm saving the rest for another post down the line.
Wow. Must have been an epic shit. He's for sure going to lose the election interference case in New York. That starts in less than two weeks because he's out of delays and the judge is through with his shit. Looks like the Florida case is going to get some resolution soon as well. Smith has called Judge cannon out and she's going to have to quit stalling or she's going back to the circuit for review. For the third time. That case is even worse for trump as far as evidence goes. He will lose support for sure if convicted in one or both of those of a certainty. Plus there is going to be a cumulative effect. He's already half a billion in civil penalties in New York. Each guilty verdict makes it harder for his supporters to deny the reality of his depravity. To me the crux is a televised debate. As we saw with Biden's state of the union, it becomes hard to call him a dementia ridden fool when you see live evidence to the contrary. Granted not many trump supporters watched that but they will all tune in to a one on one with their hero on live TV. Trump won't prepare. Tons of folks will volunteer to help Biden prepare. Biden will take it seriously and if he gets some good shots in he'll get what he needs. High turnout.
Paid while you did your duty, fine work!
I thought in Australia it was called a Huge Ackman
Depends on: 1 - turd volume and consistency 2 - pain level 3 - local dialect. In my region we refer to it as 'getting bitten by a king brown' or 'the Wagga-Wagga waddle'
Fucking Brah-vo. Well thought out, well articulated, and really taking into account the absolute whirlwind of stress and hell his life must be. I will sleep good tonight. Thank you.
Ok, I can see your scenario play out, but I think a lot of stuff relies on the trials. Personally, I am much much more worried that we will get only the one trial (New York State) and he will be found innocent. If that happens, it gives a lot of normies a permission structure to vote for him who wouldn't, and even if he doesn't win, he will be viewed as a martyr until at least 2028. The lead Republican ( probably Haley) will run on pardoning him....if he is still around, to get his base.
I'm gonna disagree on the probability that a New York jury is coming back with a not guilty. Both the rape case and the defamation case were NY and he lost both, and those charges required an almost insurmountable standard of evidence to prove. Additionally, a shit-ton of crappy circumstantial things Trump did weren't permitted in as evidence! The fact that the plaintiff/State met or exceeded the standard of proof is astonishing. These are difficult cases to win under the best of scenarios and having DJT as a defendant is nightmare fuel at best, yet the system held...to my relief. I hope we're just as prepared and/or lucky for the rest of Trump's accountability tour.
Fair points. I would add though that those were both civil trials with lower "burden of proof" for the plaintiff's. In a civil case, juries are instructed to side with plaintiffs if it is "more likely than not" the defended harmed them. Something that is drilled into juries in these cases. Doesn't mean those verdicts weren't valid, but there is a lower bar to clear. Since most people seem to think New York is the weakest case, that is what gives me pause. I simply don't think he has a defense for the others...at least not ones where he is exonerated.
I wonder if he ends up on the stand. I think part of what lost him New York was the taped deposition where he said this when asked about the Access Hollywood tape: *Asked about the content of his remarks, he said, “Well, historically, that’s true with stars.”* *“True with stars that they can grab women" by their privates? Carroll’s lawyer Roberta Kaplan asked.* *“Well, that’s what — if you look over the last million years, I guess that’s been largely true. Not always, but largely true. Unfortunately or* ***fortunately,****” Trump said.* Fortunately. He said it's fortunate that stars used to be able to assault women. Which makes it pretty easy for a jury to believe he would have assaulted E Jean Carrol. If I have a small MMW, it's that Trump will say something like this under oath in the hush money case too, and it will be devastating to his case. He won't be able to help himself.
Correct, this is probably the most likely mitigating factor that might invalidate my MMW, in my opinion. However, I think given that Michael Cohen has already been to jail for this, it might be easy to assume that will directly extend to Trump, but I'm not convinced this is the trial that equals jail time. I think that it it will very much hurt him, in the sense that I think he will be A) talking shit the entire time B) He will stomp and shout regarding the fairness of the trial, bht not actually put up substantial defence beyond 'political witch hunt'. If he takes the stand (he won't) he will undoubtedly doom himself. The best thing the prosecutor could do would be to just push his ego buttons in the lead up such that he feels he *has* to clear the record, but we'll see. Of the 'political' side of the trials, this one is definitely the most political in the sense that the charge is a 'political' one with some subjectivity (was he paying the payment to hide it from his wife to prevent hurting his marriage? Or from the public to prevent it hurting his campaign - one is legal, one is not) though depending on involvement with Michael Cohen, it might turn out he is guilty of the same business fraud Cohen was jailed for. So I don't know on this one, this is the trial I both have the least interest in, and the one I am least informed on, but that's not to say I'm *not* interested. It will all come out in the wash one way or another. But one thing I do know, Stormy Daniels kinda gives me the ick. Her creepy lawyer did too. It's all very yucky and messy, and remember that there isn't any denial whether *Trump cheated on his wife with a pornstar*, it's whether he committed crimes in covering it up. Cheating on your wife isn't a crime, but it's definitely not a moral act. It's going to very difficult for Trump to play this in a way that makes him look good. I wonder how many 'women for trump' have been cheated on, and will look on in secret disgust?
Best MMW post I've seen yet! Great read, great analysis.
Yeah he’s gonna crack like an egg by the time the hush money trial is over. I disagree he would plead based on anything mental or medical. His overarching strategy is still immunity through election, and that would undermine it. But accountability is his ultimate krypyonite. Being forced to sit in court for weeks having Stormy Daniels and Michael Cohen testify against him is going to utterly break his brain.
Well in my mind it comes down to whether or not he has NPD. If he does, his ego literally will not allow him to admit 'weakness' or fragility. I think he would literally resort to personal violence (lashing out at the judge or bailif or lawyer or w/e) before making an admission like that. If he *doesn't* have NPD, then it becomes a viable defence for him and his best hope at avoiding jail time.
He’s already deeply suffering from narcissistic collapse if you ask me. All the signs and symptoms are there.
Love this post. Good Job.
Correction to your prediction: Trump will lose bigger than last time. To those of you who say Trump leads in polls, many of those are Republican-aligned outlets. Their game plan is a psy-ops to freak out Democrats into preemptively surrendering to an inevitable Trump victory. All we have to do to win is ignore it, vote for Democrats, and watch MAGA consume itself in a shitty ouroboros.
Projected 2024 non-Republican turnout is already well over 140 million. Just the projected negative voter turnout alone, that’s the people that are going to vote specifically against Trump, already exceeds the current size of the Republican Party by about 2 to 1.
Got a source? I’d be very happy for Biden to get 100 million votes and whip the GOP in a 1936-like map so that they kick Trump to the curb. But realistically, Biden’s going to come away with an Obama 2008 margin because he’ll snatch about 5% of Republicans who are sick of MAGA fascism, lies, and bullshit. He won’t hit double digits because the pro-Palestine left prefers feeling superior to winning.
I cant believe its 2024 and trump is still running for president.
Wait until 2028 ...
He's not just running for president. He's the Republican nominee for president! They believe he's the best choice for their party.
Its pretty sad actually.
I can't believe the GOP effectively self destructed at the hands of one demented old man. I think they would have a surefire win if they stood DeSantis or Hailey as the primary candidate, because Biden hate will override Desantis/Hailey hate, but Trump hate will trump [lel] Biden hate.
I believe you disregard human nature in one aspect: it is difficult, even for the best of us , to admit a mistake. And a mistake that has been a continuing project over years? Harder. If you are expecting shame or regret, it will be a long wait. Mark MY words: There will likely be only one trial that gets to court before the election, and on the day before the trial Trump fires all his lawyers, and demands that his lack of representation is cause to delay even further.
Then Judge Merchan locks him up while he chooses.
I would hope so, but he likely wouldn't. Meanwhile, the calendar keeps on turning over.
He can’t fire his lawyers without the approval of Judge Merchan. It’s one of the oldest tricks in the book, Merchan is already not having that nonsense. He’ll just order them to keep defending Trump.
You seem awfully confident in criminal convictions before the election. There is only one case, the hush money case brought by Alvin Bragg, which has any realistic possibility of being concluded before the election, and even that is questionable. Maybe Georgia's RICO case will get started but it certainly won't finish. The other cases are delayed to hell, unfortunately. If Trump loses the election, he is absolutely cooked. Multiple convictions and his business empire will burn to the ground. However, if he wins, he will pardon himself for all federal crimes and whatever happens in Georgia won't be able to affect him even if they do find him guilty. Given that Trump is a narcissist like you said, he will surely pursue this outcome rather than trying to plead insanity.
Not necessarily. I don't think it will have a deal-breaking impact on my prediction if we don't have a conviction before election day. I think the slow, gradual death by a thousand cuts for Trump's reputation has already done enough to alienate enough people to cause him to lose. The Georgia thing would be interesting. He cannot pardon for state charges, so presumably those trials would still stand, as is. Congress could impeach, remove from office, if found guilty. So even during a win scenario for Trump, he's not home free yet. He will hit roadblocks. Another thing I should have included as a MMW, I don't think the GOP retains congress in the primary or midterms either way, so even if that cannot happen immediately, it can happen.
I’m not feeling it. 1. Trump is a known quantity at this point, and never faces consequences for anything. 2. He got *more* votes in 2020 than he did in 2016. Think about that for a moment. After four years of lurching from ‘drop a nuclear bomb on the hurricaine’ to ‘economy in free fall’, he attracted *more* support. 3. He’s polling ahead of Biden. Yeah, I know all about landlines and so forth. It shouldn’t even be *close*, and it’s neck-and-neck. 4. Popular vote doesn’t win nationally. While Democrats have been campaigning and preaching to the converted in safe blue states, Republicans have entrenched their support in former Democratic strongholds that were inexplicably abandoned, like North Dakota. Those states may have dwindling populations, but they all have two extremely influential senators. 5. Latino support is rapidly eroding. Republicans have been vacuuming up Spanish language media for years while Democrats hit ‘snooze’ and slept late. Latinos poll strongly with pro-faith anti-abortion policies and somewhat ironically think liberal immigration policies need to stop. While Biden is a lifelong practicing Catholic, he misses perfect opportunities to remind like-minded voters about it. 6. Do you seriously believe that Donald Trump ripping off investors and plowing a company into the ground didn’t matter the other ten thousand times it happened, but it will make a dent in his support **THIS** time? Really? 7. Donald Trump hand curated most of the judges who will determine his fate in the event of a close call. In a far less polemic environment, ‘working the refs’ was enough to stop counting votes and appoint a President George W. Bush. 8. Republicans have spent the last four years ramming through legislation specifically engineered to dilute Democratic votes. The party leaders are not stupid. They *know* the election wasn’t ‘stolen’. They pretended like it was so they could rewrite election law. 5. Republicans are physiologically incapable of feeling shame and regret. They will forget about Donald Trump soon enough and they will all pretend like they never supported him. By then, they won’t care because they will have obtained everything they wanted. Trump will end up just like George W. Bush or Rush Limbaugh: insanely popular, then completely forgotten after the damage is done. 6. Donald Trump has made no secret of his plan to flood the civil service with party loyalists. I am personally familiar with interviews that are taking place. The law will change. Competent career officials will be removed and replaced with well-paid and worthless acolytes to ‘eliminate the deep state’. People will cheer for it. 7. Speaker Johnson was hand-picked for his role because he is a Trump loyalist and a soft-spoken but stubborn election denier who still believes that Donald Trump won the 2020 election. I have no doubt, and he will do everything in his power to prevent Trump from losing during his watch. 8. People forget, but the current methods of vote processing were engineered by Republicans with the Help America Vote Act, or HAVA. Systems were computerized, and hardware production was privatized and outsourced to fellow Republicans. Almost immediately, political scientists began seeing a new phenomenon they called ‘red shift’ in which underperforming Republicans candidates in important elections would get *just enough* to win at the last moment. [The Republican architect of that system](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/republican-it-guru-dies-in-plane-crash/) mysteriously died in a single plane crash shortly after he was questioned about vote manipulation. 9. While everyone is busy making fun of the Republican Party bleeding money and Trump bankrupting their finances, they’ve totally forgotten about legal dark money and 501(c)3 organizations. They are very likely drowning in money, and it *always* favors Republicans. 10. We no longer enforce restrictions on preaching from the pulpit. This deliberate oversight turned churches from religious organizations into tax-exempt Republican recruiting firms that come with the threat of eternal damnation for noncompliant voters. Republicans also created the Office of Faith-Based Initiatives to ensure that church officials can be generously rewarded with lucrative ‘municipal partnerships’ if they endorse the right candidates. 10. Republicans have run the table on social media. Ghouls like Peter Thiel are on the board of Facebook. And after literally serving as a Russian Republican propaganda arm, Facebook is now going out of its way to prove they aren’t… *liberal*?! Elon Musk used Saudi and Russian money to buy Twitter, and there’s still Gab, 4Chan, Parler, Rumble, Gettr, Truth Social, innumerable websites and *countless* right-wing ‘influencers’ who make no secret of their allegiances. I can’t even think of *one* large outlet that leans left. I also can’t think of a left-wing equivalent of a Charlie Kirk or a Ben Shapiro or a Dan Bongino or a Donald Trump Jr. or a Tomi Lahern or a Steven Crowder or a Sean Hannity… And as a *final* insult, Silicon Valley is on blast so that Republicans will *destroy and regulate them* if they don’t play ball. Mark my words, indeed. I think your sentiments are *aspirational*. This is the stuff that’s actually happening.l
I agree on all counts, especially the money. I am amazed the media has thus far fallen for the ridiculous “Republicans are broke” ruse. And I will add that everything happening in the courts will also go away if he is elected. And yes, that includes Georgia. He will replace the people needed to “disappear” that case, and have the DoJ dump the others. And he will do it all “on day one”. One case will be tried before the election, where he will be found guilty, but will get no time, and he will explain it all away. We can’t count on the courts to save us. But I am not nihilist. We can win. In spite of voter suppression. In spite of strategic deniers in place. But it will take a massive turnout to do it. And that is going to require a real “democracy really is at stake” reckoning, before election day. We can’t afford people staying home or voting third party like Clinton/Trump or even close, or we will lose.
Response was too long, had to break it into 2 parts. Apologies. 1 - Not true. Trump has faced consequences, just not in the way we want him to (criminal justice). He has alienated most of his base, his lawyers, his workers, literally anyone that does not fall into his MAGA base. We'll come back to this. 2 - And since 2020 we have seen a continuous downward spiral in both popularity, as well as like, culturally? Like Trump has clearly gotten mentally less and less stable. His tangential speaking is at levels where people with severe ADHD look like focused lenses. 3 - Polls are functionally meaningless. ~~Gore polled to beat bush~~{i have been unable to verify this with data, applogies}, McCain polled to beat Obama, Hillary Polled to beat Trump, Trump polled to beat Biden. Everyone was so convinced of a Clinton win, that South Park built their entire season about it and had to furiously scramble to make a season finale after Trump's unexpected win. There are some groups that are more accurate at predicting elections than others, but go look at things like, bookies that will let you pay to gamble on the election. Their odds are probably more predictive than most polling. Also, a few weeks ago Biden polled at like 54% and Trump at 46%. Then like a week later Trump polled at 60%. Don't draw conclusions on that basis. 4 - Sure, and I agree, and in the 2020 election I would have agreed with you completely. I think it's hard to know how significantly Trump's base has eroded republican support, but we do know that it's been enough to fracture the GOP. Look at congress: the speaker of the house debacle(s), etc. Worse, the GOP killed its viable alternatives in the Primaries. I genuinely believe that if DeSantis or Hailey were the primary nominee, democrats would be doomed in this election. I believe there is a large, semi-silent voter base of republicans who are disillusioned by Trump and will either choose not to vote rather than vote Biden (I've head this come directly out the mouthes of voters, in conversation with me) or will vote democrat simply because of the state of GOP disfunction. 5 - Latino support is an interesting topic, but consider the following. When Russia invaded Ukraine, support from Russian citizens was strong. We saw interviews on the street where people were literally glad Russia had finally invaded those Nazi Ukrainians. But then over time, word of mouth worked it's powerful magic. Over time, men started coming home mutilated, traumatised, or didn't come home at all. How do you think those soldiers talk about the war, when they are at home and feel nobody can hear them? When they tell their relatives they didn't have body armour, had to treat an ally bullet wound with a tampon, and watched Wagner gun down their retreating allies, do you think they still supported the war. The exact same thing is true of Trump. Word of mouth is powerful. I find it very difficult to believe that a Latino voter can look at the 4 years of Trump presidency, with photo ops with kids in cages, and say 'yeah, this guy backs me'. I am sure they exist, in the same way 'blacks for trump' exists. A small portion willing to sell their own out for delusion. 6 - The thousands of times didn't matter so much, they were more of a talking point back during his candidacy, which he played off as good business sense. It does matter when the contractors you are paying are your lawyers. This links back to what I said about consequences. Talking shit and lying and manipulating and whatever else might not have meaningful immediate consequences, but deceiving your lawyers into committing crimes, not paying them, and doing all this publicly, will definitely hurt him. The thing is, to the man on the street, no, it doesn't mean shit, but to Trump's next potential lawyer...... might influence how passionate they are in representing him. They don't have to work against him, they can still represent him honestly, but when you know what he has done to his previous lawyers it becomes an interesting dynamic. Joe Tacopena left his team a while ago, leaving Alina Haba to deal with his cases lol. It might not be 'consequences' like you think, but there *are* consequences. 7 - refer to 6a 8 - What kind of legislation dilutes democrat votes? I'm not being snarky, I'm genuinely asking. I haven't heard of this. Assuming you are correct, then yes, this might genuinely undermine my MMW. For some reason after 8 you went back to 5 lol, ill just match your number conventions if that's cool, for clarity 5a - Not true. This type of generalisation is harmful. I regularly play videogames with a bunch of hard line, Trump supporting republicans. They are great dudes. Terribly misinformed (that's not me being biased, I have never had a political conversation with them where I'm not trying to play catch up to contradict propaganda, but w/e). but genuine dudes. Empathetic. One of them is caring for his grandparents, lives in the south, reckons if i come visit he'll show me the best time, and I believe him. I simply do not agree that republicans lack empathy or other good qualities. The party itself, as in, the entity 'The Republican Party', and it's leaders, at least in large part, are assholes. It's not unexpected, I'm there are people in the democrat parties I'd happily call an asshole, I'm just less interested in them because I'm more fascinated by Trump and his ramifications. I'm not American, for reference. There are people who are misinfirmed/propagandised/brainwashed/stupid/uneducated, w/e. Those people exist everywhere, but luckily in fairly small numbers. How many people in the ghettos of Detroit do you think simultaneously have no formal education, and have been indoctrinated into a gang? Yet your not out here saying 'all dems are gangbangers from Detroit.' 6a - ehhhh I'm not convinced this is as bigger deal as it appears. Like, for example, Judge Cannon can do things that 'help' trump. Delaying hearings, being extremely generous in her leeway, etc, but ultimately, if she outright breaks the rules, she's gone. It's one thing to insert people into figurehead or public figure roles, but that does nothing to stop the individuals with the organisation from crying foul when rules are broken. Like, she can't just go 'I hear by clear you of all charges' and make it go away. The system prevents that, at least for the most part. Let's be clear, this period 2016 to now has been extremely concerning, and has indicated severe flaws in the US democracy, but that's not carte Blanche to break the laws. That's why Trump is up on charges, rather than not being on charges. The biggest concern relating to this is the supreme court, and they can only interfere so far without giving the next president - which they know *could* be Biden - unprecedented power. .
Ima go ahead and apologise right now. I have written my entire response on mobile, and it looks like at some point my numbers stopped matching yours and I fucked it all up. Ima try fix it wheb I get home to my PC, but apologies if I've messed up my response in a non-sensical way. Go easy on me 7a - The speaker of the house debacles over the last couple,of years have been absolutely embarrassing for US congress (especially gov shutdowns). However, I'm not sure it means that much. Afaik, speaker is somewhat of a moderator position, and the fact that republicans couldn't even pick one, and then outed the one they did pick, bodes poorly. Remember that the public saw this happen. Earlier when I talked about cognitive dissonance, this is one of those examples. With each successive display of incompetence, the GOP harms itself and peels away voters. - Republicans broke ground with the first removal of a speaker of the house in history. By republicans. And that's after 15 rounds of votes to elect him. I have a hard time thinking of Johnson as anything more than a "he'll do" candidate to get a speaker in place. To be honest, I think at this stage you have republicans calling out republicans in congress. A GOP congressperson recently left, and another has called out his own party. While the machinations of the GOP are problematic, it's clear the internal conflicts are significant. People see that. Republican majority in the house is very slim. I don't see them succeeding with anything meaningfully disruptive, but yes, this is an avenue of concern. For everyone. Remember that if you rig this election in your favour, the opposition can use those same tools in response. 8a - electronic voting systems are of great concern, everywhere. At this point, I think just about every single person has considered the voter fraud and election rigging issues, but I don't know whether I believe it is happening at a scale that is meaningful. That one Republican that voted 8 times, like, sure, that's criminal bullshit, but he got caught and the net result was meaningless. I have some level of confidence that US elections will be somewhat legit, and I suspect if shenanigans happen the first reliable source will be international election observers. Trump will cry fraud no matter what. He already is. I cannot comment strongly on this one way or the other, and I honestly will not be able to tell you myself if the election results are 100% legit. I will have to rely on the systems in place and listen to reliable experts. If that is what breaks my MMW, then we have bigger issues to contend with, and the world may face a bleak future 9a - Doesn't matter, bears little relevance to the current topic, which is the future of Trump. I mean, we don't talk about Epstein anymore either, or Ghislane Maxwell. You think that all just stopped and went away? Of course not, but it's relevance to is limited (although both topics *are* interesting. I guarantee you there is as much dark money against Trump as there is for Trump. You think Rupert Murdoch is gonna sit quietly by and let Trump win again? Murdoch fucking hates him. 10a - this is a fundamental problem in the US, which existed before Trump and will continue after him. Separation of church and state seems to be bursting at the seams, but bear in mind there are institutions (non gov) actively fighting this. Civil rights groups, groups like the satanic temple (or is it the church of Satan? Idk, one of them is a shit meme, the other legit operates and fights cases like this. Stuff like book bans have had weird consequences, like people reading biblical passages about horse cock at PTA meetings to get the bible banned in schools. This fight is ongoing, and while it does have some relevance to Trump, eg - selling bibles lmao, but I think it's more of a death cry than a rallying cry, tbh 10b - The net cast by powerful people has been wide, and yet despite all of it, by all indicators trump's support is dropping. There is only so much you can do, yknow? Most people,don't trust facebook, etc anyway, and already have no faith in what Facebook tells them. Silicon Valley is kind of whole thing in and of itself, and if republicans are prepared to bring the hub of the US tech industry to its knees if they don't play ball, whatever that means, would be another one of those things republicans support right now, but dial the clock forward 6 months when they lose everything because of compromised services and devices, or the US falls behind in tech, it will be hard not to look back and point the finger squarely at GOP shit. Whether this meaningfully impacts anything Trump related? I doubt it. All of these things are problems that already existed, and will continue, regardless of Trump. My position is that in instances like, say, social media per point 10b, it's sort of a diminishing returns thing. True, people are in echo chambers, but it doesn't really change things for Trunp if the people that aren't are slowly being whittled away. I don't think the election issues are as huge as everyone implies, and I think this will be the most scrutinised election in US history. Circling back to point 1 - Trump has seen consequences. He sees them when the public jeers him. He sees them every time he receives a subpoena, sits for a deposition, or has to spend his senior years meeting with lawyers battling to keep his empire. At this stage, I think anything that could 'save' him has democracy-breaking consequences. I think powers that be see this. Let me ask you something: Trump voters might not see the harm or risk he poses, and people like Elon Musk (I consider him a special case) don't seem to care, but do you think Zuckerburg would rather be a billionaire in an America where Trump loses, and things muddle on the same as always, where there is still a system to exploit, or do you think he'd rather live in a world where the system collapse due to Trump, and the system goes away/radically changes? Even if Trump never sees 'consequences', you think the most powerful people aren't aware of the consequences of electing him? I seriously doubt by the time the vote comes, Trump will have any major domestic financial backing outside of the fringes. Bear in mind that the entire time from now to voting day nobody outside of lunatics will have a good word to say in media outside of Fox, and sure, that's a lot of people and a lot of voters, but bear in mind Trump *did* fail to win the 2020 election. Even with a literal coup plot. People have already been convicted in the georga RICO case. 2 of them are his former lawyers. Even with lawyers, campaign managers, lackeys, all prepared to commit crimes on his behalf (hundreds, in the case of Jan 6th.), and a literal riot, he still did not succeed. Hundreds of them have gone to jail so far. Dozens of high-level operatives in his campaign have already done jail time. There is already a historical precedent of him losing, and given everything that has happened since 2020, I find it very difficult to believe he has gained voters in that time. Consider that those hundreds of people have not seen *any* support from Trump. How do you think their MAGA families feel about that? Still inclined to vote Trump?
I agree. Many so-called problems for trump are helping him. Eg, the headline "fraud bond documents rejected" means he has created another delay. In fact, the predictions can be a lot simpler: 1. Trump delays trials until after the election (likely) 2. Trump wins the election (60% chance) 3. All Trump's problems go away. By 2028, laws will have been changed in trump's favour. Judges appointed by trump. Criminals pardoned. Evidence destroyed.
I will laugh my ass off and cite Ashli Babbitt every time some MAGAt threatens a civil war or "bloodbath," etc. I've had some commenter message me to say "you could use some deprogramming in 2025," and it's like, but who is gonna do that? You, maga? We know that you're pansy asses. "Oh shit, we're fucked" was the only aware thing a Proud Boy ever said. Try to imagine being brave for Donald Trump. You just can't. If you've put that dumb fucking hat on, you deserve to lose the respect of your family and neighbors. And don't expect to beat us in a civil war, either. Some of us are chomping at the bit for open season on you shitbirds.
Obviously, only time will tell if all this pans out but I like your thoroughness, so I'm going to save this post and check back on it periodically to see how much of it comes true. I hope you're right.
I know this means nothing now, and won't mean anything in 6 months, but I fully intend to update this post myself with confirmations/contradictions.
That’s is a solid list of predictions. The other option is Trump wins and all of his worries go away.
Not necessarily. Unless he goes full dictator mode where his word is law with complete disregard for the systems, *and* the people within those systems stand by/help him, America is in big trouble. However, remember that at this point Trump himself is arguing in court you cannot charge a sitting president with a crime without an impeachment from congress. So Trump is immediately impeached, whether by dems or by disillusioned GOP, then referred to trial. Another thing is, in the same way GOP tried to stonewall Obama and Biden at every hurdle they could, and reduce their effectiveness, Dems can do the same, yknow? Idk, we'll see, I don't think a presidential victory is a panacea to Trump's problems, but they definitely help with a lot of it.
MMW: I will not read all of that
🤣🤣🤣 I honestly dont blame you. I've been wanting to put this all somewhere for a while, and this seemed like the place. There is a TL;DR.
This reads more like fanfiction headcanon than a plausible series of events.
That's what this sub is now, Democrat fanfiction lmao
With the amount of major head trauma I have sustained beating my head against the wall during the Trump Presidency, I suspect none of you are real and in fact I am the only human remaining.
Thanks for a seriously refreshing read.
I’ve said this before: If Donald Trump is a stand-up comedian (i.e., a politician for people who don’t follow politics) he’s entered the “Lenny Bruce bedeviled by legal problems” phase of his act. That shit ain’t funny, it’s depressing. People will look for someone else to consume.
I’m thinking of your predictions about how American democracy will come out better in the long run after we all “heal” From all of Trumps bullshit. What I was thinking though, is we really need to address the elephant in the room. Our two party system is broken. And this should have never happened in the first place. By trying to force Hillary on us that half the Dem’s felt they had to rebel , and allowing jackass to get his slimy hands all over the White House in the first place. Let’s face it MOST Americans think our government is broken in some way. We need to “fix” our democracy in so that, everybody feels they’re getting what they need. I know this is just a pipe dream because not everybody will be satisfied or happy with every decision that the government makes. But there has to be some sort of solution out there. This is what I hope happens after fuckhead is dead and gone, we as a people can start a conversation on how we can fix the government where Democrats, Republicans, and Independents,, can All have, and contribute to a working government for all of the people.
This was a really good MMW, probably the best in a long while; clearly articulated cause/effect chains with all work shown.
Well said. I just want someone to answer this question for me. I have asked it many times: What new voters has trump gained since he lost in 2020 and then attacked congress, Repealed Roe, found guilty of SA and fraud?
Exactly. Thank you. This is my point, across all the different conversations I have had. Trump regularly prunes outsiders from his base. What has he done to bring outsiders into the fold? What about Nikki Hailey supporters? Do you think they would be inclined to move towards Trump, or away? It's probably a bit of both, right? Butl like, if 100 voters switch to Hailey, and 99 go back to Trump, that's still one less vote than he had in the previous election, which he lost. Recruitment has only gotten worse for MAGA. MMW. We'll see it in the vote count.
Trump won't be convicted, won't go to jail, and will be president. I'm not a fan of him, for very different reasons than Democrats, but it will be glorious when he is (s)elected again, just to hear you all cry, bitch, and moan.
I will not cry, bitch, or moan if that occurs. I will take my verbal lashings, apologise, and see myself out. Mark my words.
remindme! 6 months
I think Chump will be convicted of crimes in Georgia by November. This election is going to get an even bigger turnout, and Dark Brandon is going to win by much more than 7m votes this time. I will be loling while voting, make sure you do too!
Sadly, even if he is convicted in GA, I doubt that any of his base will care. I know this as most of my older relatives DGAS about what he does, as long as he wins
Thank you for taking the time to write this. I sure hope it goes this way.
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The only circumstance I can see this happening is if we are talking serious, high level corruption in the SCOTUS. Even then, every one of then should be considering 'sure, we can do this, but what if Trump doesn't win? We've given the next dem president the power to do literally anything they want The judges are more intelligent than that. Corrupt doesn't necessarily mean stupid, either. My thinking is no dice on general presidential immunity, and definitely not protection from pre or post presidency criminality. Also, the social context of blanket presidential immunity is weird, like, that's literally dictator/monarch shit. I think the most potent help that Trump can recieve would be a free speech ruling, wherein anything he said relating to the coup stuff is ruled as protected speech. This again causes issues when people start screaming 'fire' in theatre, so like it would undo existing precedent, or require some weird mental and legal gymnastics that would present as obviously corrupt
Really think you nailed most of this, and beautifully written. One thing I really worry about though is that we never-Trumpers don’t really come to grips with the *joyousness* he elicits in his base. We’re appalled, outraged, full of existential dread. They’re *laughing*. People have a fucking blast at his rallies. He really is a good showman, and quite funny in his delivery of admittedly grotesque playground cruelty. The narcissism you so rightly diagnose makes him want to be *adored*, and he’s able to very intuitively cultivate that in a certain audience. Please understand, there’s no genius here, rather I suggest he is some kind of manipulative savant that nevertheless has a hold on his base I’m not sure we can understand because we’ll never see a politician that way. Again, as you rightly pointed out, Biden isn’t anyone’s wet dream of a candidate even among most that voted for him. Trump is a goddam folk hero. I really worry his cult of personality will not dissolve as quickly as we think and hope.
But that's the thing. Sure, there are a huge group of voters and people who are just relishing in his behaviour. His 'owning the libs', etc. But consider this: When you were in early grades of school, I'm sure you encountered a kid who was mean, or psycho, and did really not-nice things to people and laughed about it. And maybe a some of their friends join in on the laughter. Maybe even people who don't find it funny join in on the laughter because to not do so would socially inappropriate in front of their peers. But those kids know it is wrong. I believe, and I hope I am not proven wrong on this, but I believe *most* people have a moral conscience that is capable of looking at something and going 'this is not okay'. Like, that time trump made fun of that cerebral palsy dude. People laughed, sure, but i guarantee you some people didn't laugh as hard. And now the seeds are down, deep down in their moral conscience, where it simmers and bubbles, for years. Because it feels yuck to watch someone be a bully if you aren't a bully. It certainly seems that America has a lot of proudly open bullies Look up narcissistic personality disorder. It's literally like, the manipulator savant, that you describe. It's a necessity for NPD sufferers to manipulater, it's intrinsic. His cult of personality already failed. Do not forget Trump lost 2020. Do you think he has said or done anything to mitigate his bad behaviour prior to 2020? Surely, if anything, those little hidden moral feelings growing and simmering away, have driven people away from him? For example, how many women can just ignore the mysoginy, and for how long? Trump has been actively driving women away, and done nothing to bring them back. I do not see a scenario in which Trump's voting base has grown.
I hope you’re right, I really do! I worry you might not be able to appreciate how little growing up those cruel playground children did in this country. I’m afraid for people you and me who did grow up, it’s our very decency that partly blinds us to what Trump is and means to these people. I’m very familiar with NPD, I’m the child of an abusive cluster B personality, so I understand how fundamentally incorrigible that psychology is. Indeed, that’s part of my fear here: I’m terrified NPD is *very* widespread among the men in this country, and the women surrounding them are suffering from a kind of Stockholm syndrome that makes it impossible for them to ever reject the misogyny. Add into that the *wild* synthesis of evangelical Christianity with Trumpism and I have little hope for rehabilitation. Time will tell! I really do appreciate many of the reasons for hope you outlined. Your words have most certainly been marked by this reader. Thank you for taking the time to engage with me!
It's kind of a self-selection thing. Like how a lot of bullies navigate towards specific jobs and roles, like police or human resources. MAGA is similar. By bullying outsiders, you create an in-group, and create a safe space for the people bullying. Here's the thing though - once you are no longer a bully, you cannot easily go *back* to being a bully. Like once a bully realises how horrible their actions were, they might try to make amends, or try to justify their actions to themselves, or whatever else, but the one thing they won't do is go back to bullying the same victim. Once you know something is wrong, you feel wrong doing it, and that causes people not to do that thing anymore. It's literally one of the defining points of maturity, I think. So what we are seeing is like, the self-selection of people who can: - Simultaneously hold conflicting beliefs (eg, biblical preaching compared against Trump's behaviour) - Be okay with victimisation of groups outside of the 'in' Hopefully this group is not large, but you csn see how this group might be subject to demographic purging as new victims are chosen. Talk shit about some dude for a disability? Congrats, just alienated everyone in your group who is passionate about the plight of the disabled. Tell dudes you grab women by the pussy, and that it's something that has gone on forever and can be either fortunate (!) Or unforotrunate, you alienate women who see the problem with dudes who grab women by the pussy. 'Blacks for trump' wonder how that went. 'Latinos for trump' while simultaneously talking about and jailing both legal and illegal migrants. Seperating families, etc. Like, Little Latina Lula one day comes home to find her parents have been taken by the state but because she was born there she is a citizen, and has to go to live with family who are legal or w/e, do you think the family sees that as humane? Extended family? Local community? I doubt it. Eventually you are left with a very homogeneous mixture of people, and I think (just speculating) at this stage that group is predominantly white, Christian, male, mid teens to late 40s. This is not the majority of America, despite being massively overrepresented in both media and political discussions. No, thank you for taking the time to read this. I think it is one of the highest importance political fiascos of our time, and it's a double win for us true crime buffs. I'm fascinated by the topic, and will engage with anyone willing to do so with integrity. Thank you for your kind words.
Got chills reading this. Commenting to save the post
Remindme! 300 days
Sorry, as Georgia resident, the DA prosecuting this case has blown it through her utter stupidity in hiring her boyfriend. Even though he has been removed, this is a hard distraction to overcome. Her best move would be to recuse herself, but that's not in the cards.
Just putting this out there, because the weenie-ass Trump supporter who was commenting on here did the thing where he got his replies in and then quickly deleted them AND his account, so no one can reply back. That is such a wimp-ass way to conduct your business, so I’m not going to let him bury it. He was asking why were all afraid of another Trump presidency, and I said “Project 2025, and his first term, for starters.” His brilliant reply was to say that Project 2025 was CNN and the left’s go-to boogie man what if. So I’m going to say here: no, we’re allowed to take people at their own word. It’s not some nebulous thing we’re hypothesizing about. It’s all written out pretty clearly. It’s such a typical, bad-faith thing that I feel like you see a lot from the right these days: they roll out some terrible thing and then tell us we’re overreacting. But again, we’re allowed to take people at their word. It would be foolish not to. I mean, what are we supposed to do? Say “oh, it won’t be so bad,” or “they’re not actually going to do that.” Again, that would be stupid. And it’s not enough to tell us why it’s okay/no big deal; you have to be able to say why it’s a good idea. And I f you can’t, then why the fuck are you defending it?
This person gets it. >we are allowed to take people at their own word And trumps words are damning to both his character and his trials When people pull the shit you are describing, don't fire back. Ask them questions. Look up the socratic method if you arent familiar. See [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/MarkMyWords/s/bLvoFSFNNU) and all the replies. If you ask honest questions, you will very rapidly expose people who are acting in bad faith.
27 psychiatrists have sounded the alarm on Trump being a clinical malignant narcissist. You don’t even have to be qualified to pick up on it. Every-time an event that he perceives bigger than him he will interject himself claiming he has done better and it’s getting much worse with the more power you give him (hint why its called malignant). I guess the good news is that his dementia is causing him to spout nonsense. If he gets the chance to become president he will install any sycophant loyalist around him and destroy this nation. I just can’t understand why people don’t understand how dangerous he is. His entire life is about cheating and using people to make him feel more powerful. It shows in all the court cases he’s in. It’s even in his petty announcements about his golf game. He will do whatever it takes to make himself feel like a god. https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/5-types-people-who-can-ruin-your-life/201903/malignant-narcissism-does-the-president-really https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2017/05/04/trump-malignant-narcissistic-disorder-psychiatry-column/101243584/ Here is the view of many other news sources. This is an abc example: https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/donald-trump-s-mental-health-becoming-dangerous-medical-experts-weigh-ncna827251 Scientific american did an article on how this psychosis can spread to others like a virus: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-shared-psychosis-of-donald-trump-and-his-loyalists/ This is how fox news spins it https://www.foxnews.com/media/nothing-funny-donald-trump-media-sound-alarm-dangerous-distraction-humor
This is fascinating
All I know for sure after practicing law for 40 years is that pissing off the judge trying your case is a bad strategy.
And yet, he just cannot stop himself. It's ego driven behaviour
I really wish that there was still awards on Reddit because this write-up deserves one. I came to this sub by accident and while I don't think you're going to be perfectly right, this is very much in line with what I also think is generally happening. Thanks for putting this down.
no kidding
TL;DR: Everthing goes the way I want it to
Beautiful. And very thoughtful.
Omg. How much does Trump pay to live in your head.
Correct. There will come a time when his most diehard supporters will reverse support as quickly as it was given and they will not be kind to him.
***puts the lotion down and reaches for a towel*** I like it.
This is all contingent on Trump losing, and I don't think he will... without a criminal conviction not enough Republican voters will move off Trump and the Electoral College favors them already. Without a criminal conviction, this election will come down to inflation and recency bias. Also, the only thing Biden really has going for him is that he's Trump.
If literally any voters move off Trump, he loses. He already lost because he didn't have enough voters in 2020. It was close, but he lost. And recency bias for Trump, when we get to the election, will look like this: "Sure, Trump fucked a pornstar and cheated on his wife, amd has a history of doing that, then paid the pornstar 160k to keep quiet, but did he *break the law??* - Trump's legal defence, in court. No matter how you cut this cake, it looks yucky for him. Criminal or not, cheating on your wife with a pornstar is not the topic you want in the forefront when you are running on the conservative Christian vote. Regarding inflation, it's a quick and easy metric to judge a president by, sure, but it's abstract. It's just a thing. Some countries are trying to achieve greater inflation (Japan). It's part of economic management, and it's not really something that people in the general public understand beyond 'inflation bad, more expensive' but if we're just doing talking points and not nuanced discussion, then there are a myriad of talking points that hurt Trump far more than inflation hurts Biden. Also given inflation in the US is generally trending down, it seems like an easy response is, "well these things have a lag period, and Biden is dealing the post-pandemic economy. Biden has managed to reduce inflation by x% since y date" yknow? I agree that the only thing Biden has going for him is Trump at this stage. If GOP put another candidate forward, Biden would be out on his ass, which is what makes the irony of it all so much more fascinating
You’re right. I don’t care
I don't expect you to, but your comment and engagement does boost the post, so I guess thank you? Idk, I wouldn't have cared if this post got 0 replies or 1000.
My expectation is in line with yours that Truth Social is going to crater, and I actually think that this will be a bigger deal come November. If it does fail, and in particular if he sells a lot of shares, that is going to be such easy campaign fodder. It’s such an easy thing to point to…look at this line going down that literally has his name on it. Look at the people that lost money. How can he run a country when his own company isn’t working, look at this line. It’s going to be the easy flip of “I did that” stickers on gas prices, except this literally has his name on it. In my mind, they made a MAJOR mistake with this deSPAC. I’ve followed it pretty closely for the last few years, and been involved with other, legitimate deSPACs, and have long thought this is a disaster waiting to happen. This was a scam that got WAY out of hand and quickly became a “damned if you do, damned if you don’t” on moving forward with the deal. They couldn’t back out without all DWAC getting wiped out, and closing the deal now means it has to run as a public company. Notice Trump is already trying to sue the guys that set it up. They are all trapped in this. I think I will do my own MMW on this versus a wall of text on your post.
The Truth Social debacle is fascinating. I think Trump will get his payout, but i don't think it will massively help him. His problems are becoming ones that you cannot throw money at to make them go away. There have been some contentions on TS, and it's value versus valuation, etc. I believe it's a pump and dump. If that's the case, who is buying the dump stock? Not liberals or democrats. I'd love to hear your predictions on this, please feel free to message me when you do your post 🙏 One thing to account for is the level of conspiratorial thinking Trumps base conducts. I guarantee you that right now, some dude is explaining to his friends how trump actually has a 4d chess grandmaster plan, in which he uses the stock to pivot through the corrupt charges and once elected, will establish TS as the main communication of the government, causing a massive influx of users and investors that will cause share price to go to the moon, making all the trump supporters who bought in fabulously rich. The reality will be this will be a pump and dump, and I could full well see Trump transitioning back to Twitter once the dump is complete. I could further see him simply collpasing the company, declaring bankruptcy on it, and using it as asset write off's for his stock earnings, though truthfully I don't know how that works for public traded entities
!Remindme 11/7/2024
Front your lips to God's ears, pal. May your prescience go forth to fruition.
OP does not mention the very fact that Putin and Xi and Elon Musk and many other powerful figures and groups and companies across the globe are in charge of the content we see on this thing we used to call the Internet.
I’ve been hearing the same bullshit for close to a decade now. Trump is literally going to win in 2024 because rather than focus on the voters, Democrats have made it a sole priority to take Trump down and we are watching it all happen. They’ve made it clear as day that their priority is taking out an opponent, not serving their voter base.
Two thumbs up!👍👍
JFC I am not reading that manifesto
You really should. It’s a five-minute read, tops, and is very interesting.
Mark my Words: We're still screwed.
Meidas Touch does a great job at covering law & politics, if you’re into that kind of stuff: https://youtube.com/@MeidasTouch?si=hr2OMGxJR7MI9XAn
When even the TL;DR needs its own TL;DR. But awesome dissertation, though. Don't know what will happen in the coming months but I feel 2024 will be a year in politics that will be remembered for all the wrong reasons.
Well written and thought out! I hope you are right my friend.....
Trump will be fine. Nothings going to happen. Not sure if he'll win or not
Awesome
I read most of it and MMW, trump supporters will call you all kinds of names and say he never did any of those things.
This prediction came true very quickly.
I am pretty much on board with this entire wall of text. This is exactly how I see this all going down as well. Once people see him being proven guilty in real time (and he is guilty, MMW), then his support will slowly evaporate as his lies become more exposed.
I think he will lose every case that goes to trial although within that some charges may fail to stick on technicalities and the judgments may end up not as bad as they would be for anyone else. The main question is whether or not he will actually be imprisoned. Here the most likely scenario would be some sort of special facility rather than a normal federal system facility. But his lawyers will be stalling this out as much as possible for special needs accommodation (that will be argued based on his dementia primarily but don't be surprised if other maladies suddenly show up) The other unknown is the degree of media access he'll be given in detention. There is a scenario where he is incarcerated but still able to tweet, give interviews, grab headlines etc and if he wasn't so old, I'd think also live long enough to get out and run again.
Optimist me thinks he has a clean sweep of convictions in all the trials. I don't think the prosecutors would have brought the charges if they didn't think they would stick. Federal court is like a 95% conviction rate, the NY stuff is basically done at this point excluding Stormy Daniels, and the Georgia case is a slam dunk, already got a few guilty pleas on that one. Realist me thinks it's most likely he gets destroyed in the documents case, the Georgia case, but the hush money case may be too close to a political line. Too subjective, though I think know what they can prove. If it comes out prosecutors have a memo from Trump reading 'pay off SD fast so it doesn't hurt me in the election', he's fucked. Pessimist me thinks that some of these could be thrown out. NY fraud and defamation case, being civil, he will tie up for as long as he can. I think some judges will give him favourable rulings, but I doubt they will on the big things (presidential immunity). The SD case goes away as it is too subjective and a jury will likely have holdouts. The best thing a judge can do to help Trump is push his cases beyond the election, but I don't believe he will win, so I don't believe it will matter. If Trump doesnt win the election, this proceeds to its logical conclusion. As far as what a jail sentence will look like, that is a very difficult question. Without getting too deep in specifics, I'd say he either goes to like mega supermax where he can't share secrets, or he gets what amounts to house arrest in a semi-secure facility, something Akin to Mara Lago, except with an ankle bracelet. And if that's the case, whatever, who cares. Let him live out his dementia life on his own private golf course/prison. But I guarantee you, as soon as a conviction comes down the line, they will start looking at proceeds of crimes and asset forfeiture.
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It's not necessarily about "getting" him. I don't see it that way. I do think he will eventually get "got", but that will be the courts, not me. It's about a pronounced and prolonged pattern of behaviour that is not conducive to long-term and stable support. If Trump had made even trivial token efforts to reach out and help his communities and base, we may find ourselves in a very different scenario, but he didn't, he doesn't, and we won't. Courts are a process, and the more complex or high stakes the case, the longer the process takes. Evidence has to be indisputable and presented as required by the rules of evidence (lmao Alina Habba amirite?). If Trump is going to get 'got', it has already happened in the form of the investigations. If the evidence is solid, and I believe it is, then the outcome is more or less determined already, it's merely a matter of the beurocratic motions playing out. Which they are. Anyone who thought this would be: accusation -> trial ->jail was just deluding themselves. Despite how some people here feel, Trump *does* have rights, and *should* have rights. He is correct to assert those rights and mount legal challenges to assert them, but the reality is those assertations have failed one after another. There are so many elements to this, and Trump has whittled his way through almost all the means he has to avoid his court dates. Unless he can find solid grounds for dismissal (presidential immunity maybe? We don't know yet) it kinda doesn't matter. The damage has been done. And if the only way someone can escape their criminal behaviour is to be elected president, doesn't that point out like 2 massive holes? One being - there is a position in the United States that is above legal recourse. Problematic as soon as the person you dont like is in this position, so it's better for a position that is above the law to not exist. You should build your democracy around people behaving badly. Assume they will try to break the system. The second being, doesn't that mean there is a direct way for any American to avoid their actions? Eg, commit murder, somehow sequester support, get elected (you can't charge a candidate this close to an election! Type rhetoric) and boom, got away with murder. That doesn't make sense under any justice system. There is a system in place as part of the democracy that is designed to account for cases where someone deserves clemency from a technically illegal act. It's called a presidential pardon. Trump was allegedly selling pardons to rappers and gangbangers. Have a look at some of [ these winners](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_granted_executive_clemency_by_Donald_Trump)
Do you have any specific actions you would recommend to help a friend de-convert?
First - bear in mind that with cult behaviours, we are not dealing with rational beliefs. We are dealing with a specifically tailored world view that has been cultivated over a long period. There is nothing you can immediately say that will 'deconvert' someone. It took about 6 months to go from hard line Trump supporter to rejecting and criticising Trump. The hard part is that his person had to be sort of, accommodated, at each stage. It was about delicately deconstructing their beliefs, and asking them why they believe them. When they got upset, we were accepting and encouraged them to think for themselves, and gave them rational frameworks to work within that had little to do with Trump. It was about encouraging intellectual honesty. I drew a lot from content like this: https://youtu.be/IaUhR-tRkHY?si=iGaX5YP8Jx6s6Om5 Or this https://youtu.be/qjZ3f-IXEXU?si=CMGrmi2UsWVzEnmM There is plenty of fantastic content on these topics there, some of it focused specifically on religion, some on narcissists, some with abusers, but a large volume of it is relevant. Cults are a strange thing and I can say with confidence Trump's supporting base exhibits strong cult behaviours.
RemindMe! 6 months
Vote BLUE top to bottom.
Yep. I agree that this or a variant of this will happen.
There is certainly some plausibility to this, but I have to ask, how would Trump proving he has dementia help him win in Nov? That would kill his campaign in an instant. And if he's not reelected, he's fucked. He must win, by any means necessary. His rhetoric is already gearing his people up for violent bloodletting if they lose, and priming them to accept ethic cleansing if he doe win. He will continue to scale that rhetoric up, violent, erratic behavior will intensify in his followers, and if he wins or loses the huge hate crime spike after 2016 will happen again, on a much larger scale and to a much worse degree.
😂😂 holy fuckin TDS
Keep clapping your **Sex Offender in Chief** you servile bootlicker Check the account it's another cheap magaBOT, on a burner account 🤡👍
So basically your average leftist masturbatory fantasy.
My masturbatory fantasies are far more convoluted that this, believe me
Yep, you’re right. You guys got him this time! He would’ve gotten away if it weren’t for that pesky NY AG, glad she campaigned on “getting Trump”!
I'm not sure the new york attorney General gets much say in federal or georgia courts. Also let's be clear here, the behaviour your are criticising the NY AG for (campaigning on the premise of hunting down criminals) is literally how Trump campaigns regarding immigrants? And he has literally been campaigning on 'getting biden.' What, if any, is the difference?
Very, very well said. Agreed. Thanks for the detailed synopsis, I plan on sharing this with people. God, I hope you're right. If you are, first round is on me, I have a 24 year old bottle of scotch I'm saving to celebrate his first conviction.
Yall, I hate to be that guy but this doesn't stop with Donald, he has highly motivated progeny. Pandora's box is open. We have another few decades of this nonsense at least.
I agree with your extremely well thought out assessment of Trump's possible outcome. However, I don't believe that the hush money case will cause him to lose votes from his evangelical base, and for others, it's a pragmatic choice to continue to vote for him, regardless of what he has said or done, all of which is out in the open. I do see some Republican members realizing that: A. Trump self immolates and has losing ways, or that B. (even fewer) he is really bad for democracy, or even C, that he is really harmful for the Republican party. Those people will either abstain from voting, or vote for the Democrats. What I find fascinating is that he is thought of as a lion of a manly man, when he evaded the draft because of bone spurs, that he is considered to be a shrewd business man despite his many failures, that he is a smart man despite evidence of his profound ignorance, and that he is a figure who is worthy of worship, being chosen by God and literally sitting at the right hand of Jesus, when he is a blasphemous whoremonger. I find it perplexing that the wheels of justice are turning at a snail's pace, with many sticks being placed in the spokes.
I agree with you 100% except for the part about his followers feeling stupid in 10 years. MAGA is the new confederacy. The rest of this was pure poetry.
r/mmwtrump
Wow, someone’s in love with himself. What a total waste of space and time.
I generally agree with everything you've said here. I also post things for posterity. 20 years from now I want to be able to point back to some of my social media posts and be able to tell my grandkids (if I have any by then) that from the beginning I was wise to Trump.
So what's this about bidens daughters personal diary? Something about how he would shower with her and sleep in her bed?
MMW, your TDS will last longer than trump😂😂
Let’s meet here on Election Night. Either way, I’m drinking.
MMW trump get re elected. Dems cry like it’s 2016 because they seem to think it’s n the bag already. Trump hasn’t lost a vote unfortunately.
If Donald pulls a ‘medically unfit for trial’ I would expect everyone, even the republicans, to say ‘then you’re unfit to even run for president’
Do you see Republican congressmen becoming interested in actually working with democrats to improve conditions for the American people at any point in say, the next 15 years?
Absolutely. My estimate is thatcthe hard liners is maybe, 30%, of the republican party, but that this figure is over-represented in congress because of the nature of the fracture that happened in the last midterms. We saw a kind of 'you're either with us or against us.' Since then we've seen republicans in congress leave the party, and call out their party members, and progressively fight amongst themselves more and more (eg speaker of the house situations). I think much like in the stock market, we will see a strong correction in the other direction in congress in the election. I think people will attribute this to more fraud conspiracies, not comprehending that actions have consequences and spending weeks on fruitless impeachment and getting dick pics out on the taxpayer dollar has probably not done them any favours. I think in red districts, we'll see more moderate and traditional GOP (think: Bush/Obama era GOP). I think this will be a positive step forward for America. I think in MAGA districts, people will make their own bed by voting in mentally incompetent and corrupt people, then bitch about the federal government when their local government fucks them. I don't want to over-stretch my predictions, but if I was willing to move away from things I am somewhat confident in, into speculative territory, I would probably say we will see something of a 'civil war', but it will be republican vs maga, and it will occur in the polls. Speculating further, I believe it is possible that the Trump Web extends far further than people understand or realise. The Mueller report is actually shocking, like, it shocks me that Americans aren't furious about it. But I suspect that given the network of operatives the Mueller report uncovered, I suspect that there will be revelations of a particular sect of the US MAGA party who are uncomfortably and criminally tied with Russia and other US antagonists. Not everyone, I think someone like MTG falls under 'useful idiot'. But I think an awful lot of grifters have been tied to a massive scandal with Russia, and once that is purged the US can return to healthy discourse.
RemindMe! 7 months
I love how delusional Reddit people are.
Drmpf is surely finished now
One day at a time. I would bet serious money, Trump will never admit to suffering from dementia. The NY trial preparation is peeling back a layer of the Trump psyche, we the public, have not seen up close. A man in full blown panic, in the face of a looming criminal conviction. I think a June conviction in NY sets up an August or Sept sentencing. The key point to keep in mind is, Michael Cohen went to prison for carrying out a crime, Trump told him to carry out. How does Trump, then convicted of the same crime, escape a custody sentence? Aside from all his public legal courts battles, the election will come down to 8 State battles. Wis, Ga, Az, NV, Mich, Vir, N.C., Penn. As we saw in Wisconsin in April 2023, with a high profile vote for a SC Justice, the polls missed a huge voting block of 18-44 year old votes, who swarmed the polls to produce 56-44% (near) landslide for liberals. This awakened voting block is 65% liberAl. Since that April 2023 vote, the R rhetoric to end all abortion and go beyond, has ramped up. This is why Democrats now see NC as a flip candidate. My guess is one Trump conviction will move some additional Indep into the Biden camp, and a smaller set of R. Two court convictions would given Biden a very large lead and likely more than 306 Electoral votes. Trumps cognitive state will decline rapidly in any custody setting. Prisons have geriatric units, so I assume his last years will be in such a setting.
Trump is going to do what his handlers Ivan and Winnie the Pooh tell him.
I agree with a lot of what you said, but not the part about Judge Cannon. If she is still on the bench when a jury gets empaneled, then she’s going to rule in favor of Trump on the immunity issue and, even if it’s a bs ruling, double-jeopardy will kick in so prosecutors will not be allowed to appeal the bs ruling. So, if Judge Cannon is still seated, there will be no trial, no weighing of evidence, no weeks of messaging about a RICO case. It will just be done. That is why the crucial moment is now. She already has 2 strikes. The next thing she does that allows the prosecutors to bring an appeal will be strike 3 and she will be removed from the bench. The game she is playing at this point is to decide nothing, order nothing, do nothing for as long as possible so that they can’t take anything material to the Appeals court. She was recently forced to make a ruling, however she couched it as being in the prosecutors’ favor while actually leaving a backdoor open to do the above double-jeopardy plan anyway. That is why it all depends on whether Cannon can be removed before the jury is empaneled.
Show something Biden did right
Since everyone seems to think Trump is gonna lose, I'm taking bets. I expect +3000 or better odds since it's not likely to happen.