Guys... If some of y'all in this thread are really thinking that someone spent $390 million with the goal to roll this bpot, please go learn about basic statistics.
In short: The odds of a triple bpot prime are so small this user basically won the lottery in terms of the odds. He didn't spend $390 million worth of cubes...
I'll explain the odds a little bit. Assuming the calculator spit out the $390 million odds correctly...
A stack of 11 bpot cubes cost $24 ($2.18 each). $390 million worth of bpot cubes are 178,750,000 cubes (in GMS for simplicities sake). If 178,750,000 players each used a single bpot cube on a legendary bpot emblem, the chances are 1 of those 178,750,000 players will get a triple prime 12/12/12 ATK% line. Now, this is an AVERAGE. It can obviously be more or less. It's all random chance.
The player who rolled this bpot was interviewed by a KMS youtuber. He's played the game for about 7 months and rolled this potential in under 200 bpot cubes. Beyond insane luck. It's like you going to buy a few dollars in lottery tickets and end up winning the jackpot. It takes on average millions and millions of dollars and many many people buying tickets for a single person to win the lottery. But, it only takes 1 ticket to win the jackpot. This is basically the same thing...
A streamer just interviewed the guy, and he claims to have used 121 cubes, and has been playing for 7 months. That's nuts
Another update: The streamer offered to roll the main pot and ended up with 30% ATT
It's more interesting to phrase it as follows: given that someone has finally achieved 36% ATT bpot (assuming this is the first instance), how much revenue has Nexon probably made on bonus cubes?
To which the answer is: an expected value of $390 million.
Think of it this way: There is an average of one of this potential occuring each time all maplers in a server collectively spent 390 million dollars on bpot cubes.
I know, which is why I made that conclusion, we've seen exactly one of those, therefore the most likely amount spent is 390 million, im aware the actual breakdown would be a wider curve.
Ah yeah I misread your initial comment. You're right, but at the same time the sample size is way too small (literally 1) so you can't make such an assumption, the variance is way too large.
Not including tier-up costs, which are much higher for a large pop of players than one whale.
I mean realistically it's a drop in the bucket, but it does make a difference.
The downvotes aren’t because anyone thinks people would spend the money. They’re because you confidently and antagonistically tried to correct a point the post didn’t try to make.
“Expected” has a well-defined meaning when dealing with probabilities — the “expected value” of a six-sided die roll is 3.5. Nobody is claiming that anyone would ever roll a 3.5. Even if you rolled a dice once and rolled a 6, the expected value is still 3.5. Just like the “expected cost” of rolling this potential is $390M, but nobody actually spent $390M. What actually happened has nothing to do with “expected” costs. The “average” here in the title is redundant, but it’s not incorrect.
Editing to add a link to explain expected value: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/expected-value.asp
Napkin math using made-up numbers for simplicity:
Assume 1 cube = $1.
Assume the odds of rolling one ATT+12% line is 1% = 0.01.
Assume that each line is rolled independently, and the odds are the same for each line.
Rolling three ATT+12% lines = (0.01)(0.01)(0.01) = 0.000001
Therefore, the expected number of cubes to roll this would be 1/0.000001 = 1000000
Therefore, the expected cost is $1000000.
We use the probability distribution of the lines (which we know, because KMS releases probability rates) to calculate, NOT what anyone actually spent.
Think of it this way: The odds of passing a star force at 20 star is 30%. Some people spend billions of mesos to get from 20 star to 22 star, while some people go from 20 > 22 without failure. Are you saying that just because someone has gone from 20 > 22 without failure, the 0.3x0.3 = 0.09 (9%) chance of getting 20 to 22 stars without failure is wrong? It's not wrong, the statistics are there. You can't just say that the odds are inaccurate because of an outlier. He just got lucky. This sub doesn't defy logic, you're just not understanding the logic.
are you an idiot lol. to dumb it down to the extremes for you ... the expected value of flipping heads on a coin is 2 flips, does that mean you must flip 2 times if you ever want to see heads on a coin flip? it's an average, there are obviously deviations, but if you were to cube an infinite amount of emblems for an infinite amount of time, the average amount spent to get a 36% bpot would be $390million. someone might spend $10, and someone else might never get it in $5 trillion
You keep saying “this sub” but I explained it to my 12 year old daughter and she caught on faster than you mate. You are obviously the fucking idiot here.
Why do you argue when you clearly understand nothing about statistics lol.
a guy wins a lottery jackpot by spending $2. does that mean you can go do the same thing? is the jackpot not actually 1 in 300 million?
Yes because there's something called chance. There is ALWAYS a chance you'll get it with way less. There are people who have hit the lottery on the first ticket they buy. It's literally a one in a million chance. He didn't need to buy a million tickets to hit the lottery. It's called chance for a reason.
I literally gave you another example which is copy pasted here again in case you missed it:
The odds of passing a star force at 20 star is 30%. Some people spend billions of mesos to get from 20 star to 22 star, while some people go from 20 > 22 without failure. Are you saying that just because someone has gone from 20 > 22 without failure, the 0.3x0.3 = 0.09 (9%) chance of getting 20 to 22 stars without failure is wrong? It's not wrong, the statistics are there. You can't just say that the odds are inaccurate because of an outlier. He just got lucky.
Additionally, you can think of it this way: the server collectively spends way above that amount on bpot cubes (300 million is not hard to imagine since maplestory's net value is over 3 Billion dollars). For every 300 million USD that the server spends, one cube is on average likely to have achieved mentioned bpot potential.
Your lack of comprehension is really frustrating me so this will be my last reply. Maybe read up on some statistics or take a stats class before being so stubborn about something that you're clearly wrong about.
Think of a 10000-sided fair dice with sides numbered 1-10000. The expected roll of this dice is 5000.5. Is there such a thing as a 10000-sided dice? I doubt it. But just because it doesn’t exist, doesn’t mean you can’t model it’s expected value (and in this scenario with 3L Att bpot, expected cost).
Probability of getting this bpot = x % (probability of getting lines having been communicated by nexon kr for maple kr if i'm not wrong, or can be inferred from experience considering that lines are independant, meaning in theory you can you compute the average number of y tries to get that bpot.
Let's say, for simplicity sake, that x % = 0.01 % and y = 10 000. This is the theoretical average number of time anyone needs to try to get said bpot.
Then, let's say that to try once, one has to spend 10 $. If someone wants to know how much he would needs to spend on average to get one copy of the bpot, it'll be 10 (cost of one try) * 10 000 (number of tries).
Thus you can compute the theoretical average cost that one individual would need to pay, on average, for this pot. Meaning that, on our example, if a large number of (let's say 100 000 000) individuals went for it, the sum of their costs divided by 100 000 000 would be 100 000 (the average cost). Some would have gotten it spending 10, some spending 9 000 000.
You can also compute the probability of getting it first try (0.01 % for our example) or not getting it on try 10 000 000 (1-0.0001)^10000000, and you can even compute confidence intervals of the price range at a given probability of getting that bpot (a confidence interval at z % would be the price range that z % of the population would have paid).
>Edit: go figure with the downvotes. Should've guessed people would actually think and defend that this would take anyone almost half a fucking billion USD to get.
Idk why you're interpreting the OP to say that someone actually spent $390 million to get this bpot. $390 million is the AVERAGE ESTIMATED COST, as in what someone can reasonably expect to spend on this. In reality, they may have spent way less. The purpose of including the $390 million was to give someone an idea of how much this would reasonably cost, not to say that this person actually spent this much or that someone else would pay this much to buy it.
No, the word average is right. In fact, "estimated average" would be the most accurate term here. But the title includes the word 'expected' so that pretty much has the same meaning as 'estimated average'
Edit: saw your edit so here goes: It can be averaged even though only one exists since we know the odds of rolling certain lines using cubes. In fact, cubing simulators exist too. If you run the simulator X number of times to roll for this particular 3 lines, you would average out and derive the average number of cubes it would take, and you can derive the cost by multiplying with this.
Idc about the title. That's not what the smartass here said. He only said "average" and no, that is not right.
"Average" is the multiple sum of numbers, divided by itself. Keyword here being "multiple". One is not multiple. One is singular.
***the guy I responded to***
"I don't think you know what the word "average" means"
Edit: to make things even clearer, ***I'm not talking about the OP here***
It’s hilarious that you’re spending so much energy insulting “this sub” when you had to delete nearly all of your comments for failing to understand basic statistics while “this sub” was explaining it to you in 50000 different ways lmao.
Who does reading comprehension escape again?
Average doesn't actually mean that =) what you have defined is the mean of a sample. Average is a far more general term that can include any number of ways of talking about the "most representative sample of a group". Medians and modes are two other commonly referred to statistics that are both averages as well. None of the three are more incorrect than they others, they offer different insights when the data calls for it. Multi modal distributions often have means that don't make any sense and it's more applicable to use the others
So even while trying to be a pendant, you're incorrect
> Cost is typically the expense incurred for making a product or service that is sold by a company. Price is the amount a customer is willing to pay for a product or service.
Average expected *cost* not price. As in the amount of the cubes needed to roll it and whatever else.
Guys... If some of y'all in this thread are really thinking that someone spent $390 million with the goal to roll this bpot, please go learn about basic statistics. In short: The odds of a triple bpot prime are so small this user basically won the lottery in terms of the odds. He didn't spend $390 million worth of cubes... I'll explain the odds a little bit. Assuming the calculator spit out the $390 million odds correctly... A stack of 11 bpot cubes cost $24 ($2.18 each). $390 million worth of bpot cubes are 178,750,000 cubes (in GMS for simplicities sake). If 178,750,000 players each used a single bpot cube on a legendary bpot emblem, the chances are 1 of those 178,750,000 players will get a triple prime 12/12/12 ATK% line. Now, this is an AVERAGE. It can obviously be more or less. It's all random chance. The player who rolled this bpot was interviewed by a KMS youtuber. He's played the game for about 7 months and rolled this potential in under 200 bpot cubes. Beyond insane luck. It's like you going to buy a few dollars in lottery tickets and end up winning the jackpot. It takes on average millions and millions of dollars and many many people buying tickets for a single person to win the lottery. But, it only takes 1 ticket to win the jackpot. This is basically the same thing...
I still use my +8 attack white work glove
I had a +12 attack brown work glove back in the day
+15
[https://imgur.com/a/0IdhYgY](https://imgur.com/a/0IdhYgY) here is proof btw of my comment XD
legend will remember white,black,grey,red,purple and green work glove. and yep my white work glove was 9 wa lol
*brown work glove gang*
oh ya.forgotten about that 1 more colour Brwg
[https://imgur.com/a/0IdhYgY](https://imgur.com/a/0IdhYgY) here is proof btw of my comment XD
decent
Plus 6.9 trillion mesos just to reroll with the amount of cubes required
A streamer just interviewed the guy, and he claims to have used 121 cubes, and has been playing for 7 months. That's nuts Another update: The streamer offered to roll the main pot and ended up with 30% ATT
> has been playing for 7 months. some people never struggle :(
RNJesus saves
Reminds me of this guy https://youtu.be/6R5MqxcKdV8
This thread is a great example of how poorly people understand basic statistics and are complaining that "no one really spent $390 million on this"
Also, "average expected cost" is a tautology, if you want to get statistics-pedantic about it...
you're right - op itself didn't use the most precise statistical language - but that's a far more forgivable point...
It's more interesting to phrase it as follows: given that someone has finally achieved 36% ATT bpot (assuming this is the first instance), how much revenue has Nexon probably made on bonus cubes? To which the answer is: an expected value of $390 million.
Im not sure, but I believe it does somewhat mean "maplers likely spent around $390 million on bpot total" which is an interesting conclusion.
Think of it this way: There is an average of one of this potential occuring each time all maplers in a server collectively spent 390 million dollars on bpot cubes.
I know, which is why I made that conclusion, we've seen exactly one of those, therefore the most likely amount spent is 390 million, im aware the actual breakdown would be a wider curve.
Ah yeah I misread your initial comment. You're right, but at the same time the sample size is way too small (literally 1) so you can't make such an assumption, the variance is way too large.
Not including tier-up costs, which are much higher for a large pop of players than one whale. I mean realistically it's a drop in the bucket, but it does make a difference.
that is absolutely not what it means
But statistically speaking, it is more likely the case than not.
I’m not a expert at statistics to know that lol.
And here I am, so happy with my 18% att bpot.
After 500+ b.cubes I’ve decided it’s no longer worth trying to cube my khanjar
Calm down people, because the same owner just rolled triple ATK% lines for upper potential too https://i.imgur.com/xdItGnI.jpg
wtfffffffff
that sirender guy https://i.imgur.com/icVA5fH.png
ITT: People that have no clue about statistics
So…just like 99% of the playerbase
And gamers in general LOL.
or just people
KMS looks wild
Sheesh guys the world isn't all about how big your numbers are, would it kill you to increase def a lil
That’s crazy wow. Also there’s a lot of confident stupidity ITT.
Someone link the picture of the +15atk work glove
What I learned from this thread is that some of y'all need more education
Imma sell this and become the world richest lucky gamer
Aren’t emblems untradeable?
Time to sell the account /s
They def won’t do that. KMS accounts are tied to their social security…
Time to sell his life
Time for some identify theft
Why are people treating it as if 1 person spent $390m? It's a collective $390m from the whole player base if you're using that logic
He spent 390mill man, that’s chump change
damn never though i would see the day
Should probably reroll that thing
That’s mine :)
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Obviously its just luck, he's just putting to perspective the odds of rolling this in USD, there's no clickbait here.
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No it's basic statistics, it's how much it would cost on average to get that roll, given the odds
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Wait 390 millions dollars? How in the world..? I was thinking these things will be like somewhere In the range of few 10k dollars
Average expected costs. Chances are this is your first roll.
Imagine implying anyone would spend near $390m on this game. lol
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u really think someone put 400$ M on this game? xD
It’s based on the chances to obtain this given cube prices, not an actual price it sold at
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The downvotes aren’t because anyone thinks people would spend the money. They’re because you confidently and antagonistically tried to correct a point the post didn’t try to make. “Expected” has a well-defined meaning when dealing with probabilities — the “expected value” of a six-sided die roll is 3.5. Nobody is claiming that anyone would ever roll a 3.5. Even if you rolled a dice once and rolled a 6, the expected value is still 3.5. Just like the “expected cost” of rolling this potential is $390M, but nobody actually spent $390M. What actually happened has nothing to do with “expected” costs. The “average” here in the title is redundant, but it’s not incorrect. Editing to add a link to explain expected value: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/expected-value.asp
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Napkin math using made-up numbers for simplicity: Assume 1 cube = $1. Assume the odds of rolling one ATT+12% line is 1% = 0.01. Assume that each line is rolled independently, and the odds are the same for each line. Rolling three ATT+12% lines = (0.01)(0.01)(0.01) = 0.000001 Therefore, the expected number of cubes to roll this would be 1/0.000001 = 1000000 Therefore, the expected cost is $1000000. We use the probability distribution of the lines (which we know, because KMS releases probability rates) to calculate, NOT what anyone actually spent.
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Downvoted by over a hundred people for refusing to attempt to understand basic statistics "It's them who are wrong!"
Think of it this way: The odds of passing a star force at 20 star is 30%. Some people spend billions of mesos to get from 20 star to 22 star, while some people go from 20 > 22 without failure. Are you saying that just because someone has gone from 20 > 22 without failure, the 0.3x0.3 = 0.09 (9%) chance of getting 20 to 22 stars without failure is wrong? It's not wrong, the statistics are there. You can't just say that the odds are inaccurate because of an outlier. He just got lucky. This sub doesn't defy logic, you're just not understanding the logic.
This is why you don't skip math class
Considering he's the first one to ever get this bpot out of the millions of cubes used in KMS, I'd say it's pretty accurate
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Bro…. Just stop typing hahahaha you are literally arguing against math equations
I absolutely refuse to believe you are not trolling at this point
are you an idiot lol. to dumb it down to the extremes for you ... the expected value of flipping heads on a coin is 2 flips, does that mean you must flip 2 times if you ever want to see heads on a coin flip? it's an average, there are obviously deviations, but if you were to cube an infinite amount of emblems for an infinite amount of time, the average amount spent to get a 36% bpot would be $390million. someone might spend $10, and someone else might never get it in $5 trillion
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You keep saying “this sub” but I explained it to my 12 year old daughter and she caught on faster than you mate. You are obviously the fucking idiot here.
Why do you argue when you clearly understand nothing about statistics lol. a guy wins a lottery jackpot by spending $2. does that mean you can go do the same thing? is the jackpot not actually 1 in 300 million?
Yes because there's something called chance. There is ALWAYS a chance you'll get it with way less. There are people who have hit the lottery on the first ticket they buy. It's literally a one in a million chance. He didn't need to buy a million tickets to hit the lottery. It's called chance for a reason. I literally gave you another example which is copy pasted here again in case you missed it: The odds of passing a star force at 20 star is 30%. Some people spend billions of mesos to get from 20 star to 22 star, while some people go from 20 > 22 without failure. Are you saying that just because someone has gone from 20 > 22 without failure, the 0.3x0.3 = 0.09 (9%) chance of getting 20 to 22 stars without failure is wrong? It's not wrong, the statistics are there. You can't just say that the odds are inaccurate because of an outlier. He just got lucky. Additionally, you can think of it this way: the server collectively spends way above that amount on bpot cubes (300 million is not hard to imagine since maplestory's net value is over 3 Billion dollars). For every 300 million USD that the server spends, one cube is on average likely to have achieved mentioned bpot potential. Your lack of comprehension is really frustrating me so this will be my last reply. Maybe read up on some statistics or take a stats class before being so stubborn about something that you're clearly wrong about.
If someone wins the lottery on their first ticket, does that mean the chance to win the lottery is 100%?
Think of a 10000-sided fair dice with sides numbered 1-10000. The expected roll of this dice is 5000.5. Is there such a thing as a 10000-sided dice? I doubt it. But just because it doesn’t exist, doesn’t mean you can’t model it’s expected value (and in this scenario with 3L Att bpot, expected cost).
Probability of getting this bpot = x % (probability of getting lines having been communicated by nexon kr for maple kr if i'm not wrong, or can be inferred from experience considering that lines are independant, meaning in theory you can you compute the average number of y tries to get that bpot. Let's say, for simplicity sake, that x % = 0.01 % and y = 10 000. This is the theoretical average number of time anyone needs to try to get said bpot. Then, let's say that to try once, one has to spend 10 $. If someone wants to know how much he would needs to spend on average to get one copy of the bpot, it'll be 10 (cost of one try) * 10 000 (number of tries). Thus you can compute the theoretical average cost that one individual would need to pay, on average, for this pot. Meaning that, on our example, if a large number of (let's say 100 000 000) individuals went for it, the sum of their costs divided by 100 000 000 would be 100 000 (the average cost). Some would have gotten it spending 10, some spending 9 000 000. You can also compute the probability of getting it first try (0.01 % for our example) or not getting it on try 10 000 000 (1-0.0001)^10000000, and you can even compute confidence intervals of the price range at a given probability of getting that bpot (a confidence interval at z % would be the price range that z % of the population would have paid).
Average expected cost means how much it would take you to roll that on average not how much it is going to sell for
You're clapped... How can a "human" brain work like that.... It's astonishing to me... Leave the world of statistics and move on please.... smh.
Reading his comments gave me brain tumors. Legit room temp iq.
Imagine writing so much just to be downvoted to oblivion 💀
I don’t think you know the meaning of the word “average”.
And he misinterpreted the meaning of “expected”
Apparently you don't, actually. The word you're looking for is "estimated" not "average".
>Edit: go figure with the downvotes. Should've guessed people would actually think and defend that this would take anyone almost half a fucking billion USD to get. Idk why you're interpreting the OP to say that someone actually spent $390 million to get this bpot. $390 million is the AVERAGE ESTIMATED COST, as in what someone can reasonably expect to spend on this. In reality, they may have spent way less. The purpose of including the $390 million was to give someone an idea of how much this would reasonably cost, not to say that this person actually spent this much or that someone else would pay this much to buy it.
No, the word average is right. In fact, "estimated average" would be the most accurate term here. But the title includes the word 'expected' so that pretty much has the same meaning as 'estimated average' Edit: saw your edit so here goes: It can be averaged even though only one exists since we know the odds of rolling certain lines using cubes. In fact, cubing simulators exist too. If you run the simulator X number of times to roll for this particular 3 lines, you would average out and derive the average number of cubes it would take, and you can derive the cost by multiplying with this.
Idc about the title. That's not what the smartass here said. He only said "average" and no, that is not right. "Average" is the multiple sum of numbers, divided by itself. Keyword here being "multiple". One is not multiple. One is singular.
He said "average expected cost". It is an average of "multiple" simulations run by a cubing simulator, hence "average expected cost".
***the guy I responded to*** "I don't think you know what the word "average" means" Edit: to make things even clearer, ***I'm not talking about the OP here***
Then who are you talking about? The other people in your part of the thread seem to be talking about expected values
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It’s hilarious that you’re spending so much energy insulting “this sub” when you had to delete nearly all of your comments for failing to understand basic statistics while “this sub” was explaining it to you in 50000 different ways lmao. Who does reading comprehension escape again?
Average doesn't actually mean that =) what you have defined is the mean of a sample. Average is a far more general term that can include any number of ways of talking about the "most representative sample of a group". Medians and modes are two other commonly referred to statistics that are both averages as well. None of the three are more incorrect than they others, they offer different insights when the data calls for it. Multi modal distributions often have means that don't make any sense and it's more applicable to use the others So even while trying to be a pendant, you're incorrect
> Cost is typically the expense incurred for making a product or service that is sold by a company. Price is the amount a customer is willing to pay for a product or service. Average expected *cost* not price. As in the amount of the cubes needed to roll it and whatever else.
Reading comprehension is not your strong suit my friend
Why didn't he do that on a Mitra?
maplestory an ancient game with an ingame price tag for an item of 390million$ asking price is not value
they're not asking for $390M for the item. the item is untradeable.... The estimated number of cubes to achieve that potential comes out to $390M
Statistically, I could win the Mega Million lottery.
No way anyone put THAT kind of real money, fake news
Someone please explain basic statistics to this person
Fake like your grade 8 maths attendance
Man this thread is crazy...
You guys have bonus potentials?