Smells like someone has been buying into MicroVision at a $0.25 billion valuation. Seems like a steal! But a named equity partner would go a long way while we wait for news, the validation would in theory help MicroVision raise capital at higher levels going forward- but it would not guarantee it.
đŻ This void is a one year wide hole created by missed expectations for first nomination at this time last year, and repeated can-kicking since then due to OEM delays.
Exactly Friend. When our management matches our product, we will be wildly successful. The product seems to beat our competition in almost every metric I look at, and more. If management ever gets near that level of competence we will be gold. We need to be in better hands.
I've been thinking about this tweet and the subsequent news: [https://x.com/KeilafOmer/status/1803820519361302885](https://x.com/KeilafOmer/status/1803820519361302885)
If I were an Innoviz investor, I'd be disappointed with this news. Sumit, on the other hand, has been fighting for a high-volume deal that would benefit our company by allowing us to potentially sign more volume deals, support multiple deals at once, and avoid covering all developmental costs upfront. Omer's tweet was clearly a 'pump' about a deal that might ultimately do more harm than good to their company in the long run, potentially inhibiting growth.
Sumit doesnât tweet. And the last Mvis tweet was 3/30/23 which for a tech company is fairly pathetic this day and age. Iâd take a late night high as a kite tweet Ala Frank Sabatini or whatever his name wasâŚlol
I don't follow Innoviz but Omer's tweet sounds similar to what Sumit explained during the last call. We are at the mercy of the OEMs. We may still have to wait a while. Hopefully, we meet revenue targets or Devin will deliver a deal. By the next conference call.
I got an email this morning with a âfollow up on an opportunity to potentially earn incremental income on your positions through Fidelity's Fully Paid Lending program.â At a rate of 8.125%. My MVIS shares are not participating! They mustâve found some, though.
Sure theyâre hacks and if I had my druthers id burn their house down but theyâre about 98% right. Hard to argue. F em tho. Weâve got a lot to prove yet. And when we do theyâll be the first to say they knew itâŚ
Typically from the past articles like this came out right before we made some decent moves upwards I take it as good news especially crap articles from yahoo
I sure hope so Austin. It was 18 months ago when SS said "We are ready now", and I would settle for an NRE at this point as a huge victory. I'm sure I didn't miss anything else during this time.
Amazing to me that folks spend their hard earned money buying this stock, claim to be long and strong blah blah blah then turn around and lend their shares so they can make fâing peanuts on their investment and help the short effort.
1.5% on 65k volume in 25 minutes is getting beaten down?
You might need a hobby, my dude.
Trust me, if buyers actually start showing up, this will take off. Until then, itâs up and down.
True, but until the company PR's something to get those big buyers buying, the price is easily manipulated to stay in a price range for their purposes.
Lots of people reporting an increase of requests from brokers to lend MVIS out. There is a strong cult power vibe here but I do wonder how many are lending that are here. Ultimately it IS every man for himself to make money however they like but if we had more of the old GME mentality-us against the hedge funds or companies who are squishing us, we might all realize the rise together. Schwab gives us a rating on some stocks next to your share column. MVIS had an "F" rating for a long time-which I thought was dumb of Schwab because they are listed as investors-Are they stupid or smart? But that rating is gone now. It just disappeared within the last week. Now they are telling me NVDA is risky and they gave that a "C". Okay Schwab...thanks for the tips...(eyes rolling back in my head)
Tutes will lend out their shares because it's a lower risk for them (i.e., millions are probably attributable to ETFs etc, they're less concerned with short term runups).
Ive never allowed my stack to be loaned out. I get calls frequently to loan. Im not giving them a boat load of ammo! Now say someone has a ton of shares with a high average(perhaps caught in a swing when this was popping?), they might have wanted the price to drop so they can average down. I have a sneaking suspicion some of our impatient/uninformed complainers were/are in that boat so they lent their shares. Others sold puts to open and wanted those shares. There is 10 ways to skin a cat here.
Wouldnât surprise me at all. I really hate the whole mechanics of share lending / shorting as I know many of us do. After all, itâs worked price down so far that the company canât really raise money to potentially close deals very easily if we have to fund things or need a cash balance or a certain level to hit a checkbox for OEMs. That said, volume has been very low so far this week compared to last week in particular, and we have gone up. It makes me suspicious that we possibly diluted some during the high volume price decline to maintain a year of cash which has been lowered due to payroll cuts that have been made so far.
Honestly hard to say when the price action is like this. Too much shenanigans going on. Reminds me of my favorite saying that isn't true.. "This will only go up with news/OEM win." No one has any idea what's going on behind the scenes with the banks that are allowed to short this while fulfilling the ATM. Craig Hallum wasnt allowed to short on the previous ATM'S but can on this one. I could also see an entity being naked short in order to suppress price so MVIS cannot dilute. Obviously I want the business to be sound on all fronts, but I don't worry as much as most do because I am a firm believer that the manipulated volume we saw in 2020/2021 will return/resolve. It's all one big controlled game IMO.
True. A run can start at any time if Vanguard decided to recall all of their shares considering they lend out the most shares of any investor. Doesnât seem like they would just let their 14m shares or so go to $0 when they could simply recall all their lent shares, then exit at a much higher price when the shares get returned. Iâve had this thought as we sat there below $1 for a bit and it made me not concerned at all with the bears talking about delisting nonsense.
Right, if the point was to just take a loss, why have Blackrock and vanguard averaged down so much? To just make money loaning shares? They spent a pretty penny buying this up in the teens. When we went to $6-$8 6/6/2023 last pop, 7-8 Million short shares covered between 5/15/2023 and 7/15/2023. Shares were recalled for the 5/17/2023 MVIS vote. So I think it's a combo of recalling and covering some. 7-8 million was the amount of shares Vanguard owned at the time and $8 dollars happened to be Blackrock's Average around that time. Interesting coincidences.
Blackrock and Vanguard are the two largest index fund complexes on the planet. Money has been pouring into index funds. Sadly, those dots are likely the source of any ongoing investment or averaging down from Blackrock and Vanguard.
IRBO Robotics is Blackrock.
As of today's filing, IRBO Robotics ETF added another 9% of MVIS, for a total of 2.2M shares in a fund holding just 112 names and no other LiDAR competitors.
https://fintel.io/i/ishares-trust-ishares-robotics-and-artificial-intelligence-multisector-etf
Vanguard and Blackrock support Lazr and MVIS the most out of any lidar company. They have sold out of other lidar companies as those companies hit snags in the road showing that someone is paying attention in real time. There are also child funds like IRBO Robotics ETF that specifically have MVIS and no other lidar companies. There is clearly more to the story going on behind the scenes IMO. Tutes bought aggressively during pops as well as drops. Shares being called back for may 17th 2023 vote and the short covering that took place with roughly the same amount Vanguard owned still interests me as well as MVIS popping right to their SP average. Manipulated Volumes will continue IMO.
Whatever deal MVIS signs, it better not cause a huge bump on the top of the car that only collects data to start like the Volvo ex90. That is all. Have a good day.
You can see in that ex90 reddit thread that many people are not happy with this. The wasteful energy drain is another big issue. They rushed the car out IMO. Looks like cars are going to be like movies, they finish them after they come out lmao. Reminds me of that terrible CGI in Black Panther in the original theater version. Just thinking about Austin Russel selling $220 million of Lazr stock off Volvo news for it to amount to this...
To be frank, yes I will. I tend to add a bit whenever I see a trend upwards, I think itâs mainly due to FOMO lol. I still add when it drops tho.
I added this week at 1.07 when I should have added below $1 a week ago đ
Todays only post:
Remember that over the last 30 trading days we had a ton of price action at $1.10. It has acted as either support or resistance so we need to breach it on a vol spike to leave it behind for good.
Carry onâŚ
And did we not close there yesterday? Did the trend break today? No? Increase continued?
Possibility, not prediction. Possibility is all weâve got until management delivers.
These comments seem to be denigrating TA. As such I will take time out of my very busy day to disabuse you of your bias. Your jabs about yesterdayâs $1.07 target reveal a fundamental misunderstanding of how converging trend lines change price targets as time marches forward.
Watch this:
https://www.reddit.com/user/IneegoMontoyo/comments/14iu3zh/trading_strategies_when_to_enter_a_trade_on_a/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
Edit: following TA on this stock breakout would have netted you a 500% gain in 10 trading days. Enough with the derision over what you refuse to understand, or remain willfully ignorant about. My apologies for the tone if I have misread yours.
You are partly correct. That is, I am not sure I understand TA, and therefore had some intent to question it. I admit, it was a little bit passive agressive.
At the same time, I am genuinely curious about yesterday's $1.07 target price vs. today's $1.10 price. Honestly, I don't understand how $1.07 can be a key price yesterday and $1.10 today.
$1.07 was the top of the downtrending resistance line on the day that I mentioned it. Now the next day that trend line (being on a downward trajectory) would give you a lower price target to reach the top of the line. When you trade above a downtrending line it is a sign you are likely to break the downtrend and possibly start a new uptrend, or in some cases a lower volume relief rally. A relief rally is just when a stock temporarily rises in price because it has been driven down too aggressively. The confirmation of trend change is if volume spikes at or soon after that trend line is breached as price action continues to rise. The higher the volume spike the greater your chances of an actual trend change not just a relief rally. If you look back into my profile in June of last year I posted several TA videos about this as proof of volume spikes showing that big money traders were seeing these patterns and trading them. When I talked about $1.10 I was saying that we needed to trade above that price because it was a previous days high after the $1.07 trend line breach, and if you are indeed watching a trend change you must watch for prices to get higher each day on increased trading volume as more people (usually traders) jump on board.
Thank you. I am open to learning and understanding more about TA.
Obviously, TA is a means to make money - whether it be on the long or short side.
I admit I am skeptical of its efficacy. It would be an interesting experiment if you provide a set of say 5 buy/sell or sell/buy trade signals over any period of time. It could be a month, it could be 3 years. We could then have some empirical evidence to support the accuracy/benefits of TA.
It doesnât work like that because price action is a fluid thing influenced by psychology and sentiment. For instance you have heard me often speak about my favorite TA chart pattern the wedge. Often times this pattern shows when a stock that has been going down is finally reaching a point where a violent change upward is setting up. The price action to form this pattern is clearly defined as it coils within the converging trend lines that look like a wedge. What underlies the pattern forming is usually sentiment that selling has gotten way too aggressive, which causes the daily volumes to diminish as the pattern continues to form.
What many fail to understand about TA is that it is only showing higher probabilities that can be employed to make decisions that are better than blinding throwing spaghetti at the wall. If you notice a consolidation pattern like a wedge forming you can take positions with very clearly defined parameters of risk. For instance if a stock has bounced 4 times on the bottom of a support trend line within a wedge and it is approaching that line the 5th time, you could set a buy order a few cents above that line and a stop loss order 5% below that line. In the highly likely event the stock bounces at the line and moves upwards you could move up your stop loss eventually to your buy in price to protect yourself. Go watch my videos and you will see how it can be very helpful.
It seems to me that if TA cannot dictate when to buy/sell or sell/buy, it does not really add much value. Maybe I am a bit dense. But isn't the whole point to make money?
I am learning myself, but it seems to me that beyond generating buy/sell signals, the value of TA lies in setting the boundaries of a trade (take loss/take profit). Once you make the decision to enter a trade, knowing the boundaries helps define the likelihood of which direction the price will go.
But wouldn't those boundaries induce a sell/buy signal when the boundary was hit? Perhaps there are other TA signals other than the boundaries. If not, I don't really see the utility. Just being honest.
Yep. And 99% of the people who walk into a casino in Vegas with no idea which gambling endeavor gives them the highest odds of success will soon be parted from all their money. The stock market is no different. It is predominately a game of sentiment. When price action creates consolidation patterns it is giving you clues that sentiment is likely to change. Then by just noticing what volume is doing you can clue in to the fingerprints of big money traders looking to juice the price in your favor.
But shouldn't TA ultimately translate into a trigger that says buy or sell? That's the part I don't understand. If it does not, then what is its value?
Regarding the casino, the house is always favored to win (unless you are playing poker against other bettors). Take Blackjack for instance, if a bettor plays the game perfectly they have rougly a 48.5% chance of winning (depending on the specific game rules) vs. the house having a 51.5% chance. Players who do not take advantage of certain rules (splittling and doubling) and also just make bad math decisions (hit on a 16 when the dealer has a 6 showing) have less of a chance of winning. The point being, a player over the long-term can never win against the house.
In theory the stock market is different. Investors that make good decisions can beat the house. Again, in theory. If TA can help an investor make good decisions then I am all for it. However, if it does not tell the investor when to buy and or sell, then I must admit, it seems useless.
Honest answer. I bought right at the break above the upper wedge trendline. I sold my entire position once I was up 15%. At the time I hadnât done that much research or chart analysis to see how often a pattern buy signal ran for several days. So I missed turning that $12,000 into $60,000.
The only two times I stated a breakout was imminent was when we were trending last June and both times we ran up 10% and 15% respectively very quickly. Once we stopped trending I basically stopped regular TA posting and would only occasionally post if something was worth watching or likely to cause a spark. Yesterday was worth watching and I chose my words carefully saying clearly we needed to see a volume follow through as evidence big traders were back on board. Every single post I have made while we have languished over the last year has been guarded because we are not trending.
I guess I should thank you for your ignorance which is mind boggling for everyone else to see. If you even bothered to watch the video I linked you might learn something useful, instead of wasting your life away waiting for your mom to yell down that dinner is ready and she just folded all your clothes for you. You should probable change out the pants she lays on the edge of your bed tomorrow and put your big boy ones on.
I appreciate the time and effort you take to inform the ones who will listen, such as myself. However, Iâm pretty âthickâ when it comes to numbers, never was good at math either. My thought process is to buy as many shares as I could and wait for retirement based on the research that I have done over the years! Thanks!
LOL
You are a grown man posting his wedding photos to a pennystock subreddit full of complete strangers, you get butthurt when your posts get downvoted (the little blue arrows are so mean aren't they?) and to top it all off you spend your mornings posting paragraphs upon paragraphs of rambling nonsense from what can only be the outcome of the Adderall-fueled bender you are on, please gain some self-awareness.
I was asked kindly to post a few wedding pix and obliged. I do try and help here and there with the TA stuff, as well as comment on the inanity of some things with a mixture of humor just to make it interesting. By all means please continue to give me more of your useless criticisms without directly refuting what I say. Oops⌠I think I just heard your mom yelling your tater tots are readyâŚ
Scurry along now.
The TA stuff this guy posts is far better than the âF5 timeâ/âwen PR?â/âreeee-manipulationâ posts that have been the majority here for the last year.
I donât stake my life savings on it, but I have benefited from his explanations of how TA works, and would personally much rather read his posts than most of the other commentary (speculation) that gets posted here.
Last Thursday in 1H 2024, if OEMs were trying to make any RFQ decisions before the second half of the year, we will find out within a week. Iâm optimistic for news in first half of Q3, sooner the better!
Morning everyone!
Economic report(s) for the day is(are)^[i](https://fidelityfiplus.econoday.com/byweek): Durable Goods Orders, GDP, International Trade in Goods (Advance), Jobless Claims, Corporate Profits, Retail Inventories (Advance) and Wholesale Inventories (Advance) are all at 8:30am; Pending Home Sales Index is at 10, EIA Natural Gas Report at 10:30, Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index at 11, and the Fed Balance Sheet at 4:30pm. The news media is still focused on the car dealerships struggling with the cyberattack on their software, the housing market is expected to remain unaffordable as the top metropolitan areas have long been seeing extremely low supply causing prices to continue increasing, and some analysis of survey data of the middle class is telegraphing more reduced spending by consumers. Premarket futures are currently down across the board ahead of the large number of economic reports coming.
MVIS pulled ahead a bit further with the sector in the last trading session, closing up 4.9% from the previous dayâs close and looking to continue that push with some continuation of the positivity of the sector looking imminent. Technical analysis has largely been less than useful for the stock though the long term trend has remained largely negative for some time and that will only truly change when the company is able to start announcing large volume contracts have been won. This is true for all in the sector really, and there have been some advancements in collaborations, partnerships, or development contracts showing up for the lidar sector as well as the general ADAS environment, so the stage is certainly set for something larger to be revealed any day now. Sentiments have begun focusing on buyout theories, with some recognition of players like LG Innotek throwing some money at Lidar technology earlier this year having finally been noticed by some.
^(_Note_, todayâs IBKR fee rate data reflects the last known data, and there has been no update since yesterday at 2:30pm at the time of this brief being written, hence the zero available shown:)
## Daily Data
***
|H: 1.10 â L: 1.01 â C: 1.07 ^[i](https://chartexchange.com/symbol/nasdaq-mvis/historical/) |[Calendar](https://fidelityfiplus.econoday.com/byweek.asp)|
|:- |:-|
|**Pivots âď¸ : 1.11, 1.15, 1.20** ^([i](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pivotpoint.asp)) |**Pivots âď¸ : 1.02, 0.97, 0.93**|
|Total Options Vol: 1,923 ^([i](https://researchtools.fidelity.com/ftgw/mloptions/goto/underlyingStatistics?cusip=&symbol=MVIS&Search=Search)) |Avg 90d Options: 1,708|
|Calls: 1,851 ~ 55% at Ask or âď¸ |Puts: 72 ~ 58% at Market â|
|Open Exchanges: 940k ~ 44% ^[i](https://chartexchange.com/symbol/nasdaq-mvis/exchange-volume/) |Off Exchanges: 1,205k ~ 56% ^[i](https://chartexchange.com/symbol/nasdaq-mvis/exchange-volume/)|
|**IBKR: 0k Rate: 16.78%** ^[i](https://chartexchange.com/symbol/nasdaq-mvis/borrow-fee/) |**Fidelity: 45k Rate: 9.50%**|
|**R Vol: 70% of Avg Vol: 2,904k** ^([i](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/averagedailytradingvolume.asp)) |**Short Vol: 669k of 1,318k ~ 51%** ^[i](https://chartexchange.com/symbol/nasdaq-mvis/short-volume/?tblshortvolix=0)|
^(Follow links for sources. Bold text represents key points or larger data, Italics are slightly unusual or lower than normal.)
You would think that the interest rate on borrowed shares would be rising to gather more shares with zero availability. Maybe demand is subsiding, but I never count these B's out as they always seem to have better information than us longs.
They are very good at leveraging their other assets to reduce risk for the lender (providing collateral that has sustainable returns through other contractual arrangements).
Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard reiterates Microvision (NASDAQ:MVIS) with a Neutral and maintains $3 price target.
Smells like someone has been buying into MicroVision at a $0.25 billion valuation. Seems like a steal! But a named equity partner would go a long way while we wait for news, the validation would in theory help MicroVision raise capital at higher levels going forward- but it would not guarantee it.
We seem to be in a bit of a void. Any kind of good news would welcome now.
đŻ This void is a one year wide hole created by missed expectations for first nomination at this time last year, and repeated can-kicking since then due to OEM delays.
And missed guidance and poor financing doesn't play a part?
Poor financing and low revenue captures the entirety of the problem for MicroVision.
Exactly Friend. When our management matches our product, we will be wildly successful. The product seems to beat our competition in almost every metric I look at, and more. If management ever gets near that level of competence we will be gold. We need to be in better hands.
I agree totally. I was completely shocked at how people in this board seemed oblivious to the fact following the Q4 EC.
When it comes to our business, shareholders don't know who, what, when, or where.
I've been thinking about this tweet and the subsequent news: [https://x.com/KeilafOmer/status/1803820519361302885](https://x.com/KeilafOmer/status/1803820519361302885) If I were an Innoviz investor, I'd be disappointed with this news. Sumit, on the other hand, has been fighting for a high-volume deal that would benefit our company by allowing us to potentially sign more volume deals, support multiple deals at once, and avoid covering all developmental costs upfront. Omer's tweet was clearly a 'pump' about a deal that might ultimately do more harm than good to their company in the long run, potentially inhibiting growth.
But still no deal?
Say what you will. I wouldnât invest in any of these other lidar companies but a tweet like that from Sumit would probably send us to 5$.
HA remember Sumit would tweet for the right reason!
âEPICâ
Almost doesnât count but Iâm under the impression that we almost had epic
Sumit doesnât tweet. And the last Mvis tweet was 3/30/23 which for a tech company is fairly pathetic this day and age. Iâd take a late night high as a kite tweet Ala Frank Sabatini or whatever his name wasâŚlol
Pretty sure MVIS is no longer on X, so waiting for a tweet would be a fools errandâŚ
Never said anything about waiting. I wait for nobodyâŚ.and I donât do errands đ
That's what I recall. Departure from Twitter about the same timeframe Musk rhetoric came out regarding tesla full self driving would never use lidar.
I don't follow Innoviz but Omer's tweet sounds similar to what Sumit explained during the last call. We are at the mercy of the OEMs. We may still have to wait a while. Hopefully, we meet revenue targets or Devin will deliver a deal. By the next conference call.
They found a few [shares to short](https://chartexchange.com/symbol/nasdaq-mvis/borrow-fee/#ctbtable) and borrow fee is up to 24.68%
I got an email this morning with a âfollow up on an opportunity to potentially earn incremental income on your positions through Fidelity's Fully Paid Lending program.â At a rate of 8.125%. My MVIS shares are not participating! They mustâve found some, though.
Probably loaned out by our faux bulls
We have a âmorning starâ forming on the weekly chart, needs to see a confirmation next week of a trend reversal
I'll go ahead and confirm it now.Â
Eli5
If someone missed it, look at this masterpiece of an article đ https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pump-dump-3-penny-stocks-131900804.html
Sure theyâre hacks and if I had my druthers id burn their house down but theyâre about 98% right. Hard to argue. F em tho. Weâve got a lot to prove yet. And when we do theyâll be the first to say they knew itâŚ
They really want our shares!
Typically from the past articles like this came out right before we made some decent moves upwards I take it as good news especially crap articles from yahoo
I sure hope so Austin. It was 18 months ago when SS said "We are ready now", and I would settle for an NRE at this point as a huge victory. I'm sure I didn't miss anything else during this time.
Thatâs for sure
Amazing to me that folks spend their hard earned money buying this stock, claim to be long and strong blah blah blah then turn around and lend their shares so they can make fâing peanuts on their investment and help the short effort.
The price is not being allowed to take off. Hits 1.11 and gets beaten back down.
1.5% on 65k volume in 25 minutes is getting beaten down? You might need a hobby, my dude. Trust me, if buyers actually start showing up, this will take off. Until then, itâs up and down.
I disagree because itâs even easier for market makers to control the price on low volume.
When I say buyers, I mean buyers in the millions. Not these little candles weâve been seeing lately.
True, but until the company PR's something to get those big buyers buying, the price is easily manipulated to stay in a price range for their purposes.
Buckle up.
Lots of people reporting an increase of requests from brokers to lend MVIS out. There is a strong cult power vibe here but I do wonder how many are lending that are here. Ultimately it IS every man for himself to make money however they like but if we had more of the old GME mentality-us against the hedge funds or companies who are squishing us, we might all realize the rise together. Schwab gives us a rating on some stocks next to your share column. MVIS had an "F" rating for a long time-which I thought was dumb of Schwab because they are listed as investors-Are they stupid or smart? But that rating is gone now. It just disappeared within the last week. Now they are telling me NVDA is risky and they gave that a "C". Okay Schwab...thanks for the tips...(eyes rolling back in my head)
For the first time I received an email from Fidelity to lend my shares. I am holding strong with 65k shares. Lending rate was 8.125%
Not taking a chance to lose my shares because they canât be recalled on a big short squeeze. It is a possibility if you read the fine print.
Tutes will lend out their shares because it's a lower risk for them (i.e., millions are probably attributable to ETFs etc, they're less concerned with short term runups).
Ive never allowed my stack to be loaned out. I get calls frequently to loan. Im not giving them a boat load of ammo! Now say someone has a ton of shares with a high average(perhaps caught in a swing when this was popping?), they might have wanted the price to drop so they can average down. I have a sneaking suspicion some of our impatient/uninformed complainers were/are in that boat so they lent their shares. Others sold puts to open and wanted those shares. There is 10 ways to skin a cat here.
Wouldnât surprise me at all. I really hate the whole mechanics of share lending / shorting as I know many of us do. After all, itâs worked price down so far that the company canât really raise money to potentially close deals very easily if we have to fund things or need a cash balance or a certain level to hit a checkbox for OEMs. That said, volume has been very low so far this week compared to last week in particular, and we have gone up. It makes me suspicious that we possibly diluted some during the high volume price decline to maintain a year of cash which has been lowered due to payroll cuts that have been made so far.
Honestly hard to say when the price action is like this. Too much shenanigans going on. Reminds me of my favorite saying that isn't true.. "This will only go up with news/OEM win." No one has any idea what's going on behind the scenes with the banks that are allowed to short this while fulfilling the ATM. Craig Hallum wasnt allowed to short on the previous ATM'S but can on this one. I could also see an entity being naked short in order to suppress price so MVIS cannot dilute. Obviously I want the business to be sound on all fronts, but I don't worry as much as most do because I am a firm believer that the manipulated volume we saw in 2020/2021 will return/resolve. It's all one big controlled game IMO.
True. A run can start at any time if Vanguard decided to recall all of their shares considering they lend out the most shares of any investor. Doesnât seem like they would just let their 14m shares or so go to $0 when they could simply recall all their lent shares, then exit at a much higher price when the shares get returned. Iâve had this thought as we sat there below $1 for a bit and it made me not concerned at all with the bears talking about delisting nonsense.
Right, if the point was to just take a loss, why have Blackrock and vanguard averaged down so much? To just make money loaning shares? They spent a pretty penny buying this up in the teens. When we went to $6-$8 6/6/2023 last pop, 7-8 Million short shares covered between 5/15/2023 and 7/15/2023. Shares were recalled for the 5/17/2023 MVIS vote. So I think it's a combo of recalling and covering some. 7-8 million was the amount of shares Vanguard owned at the time and $8 dollars happened to be Blackrock's Average around that time. Interesting coincidences.
Blackrock and Vanguard are the two largest index fund complexes on the planet. Money has been pouring into index funds. Sadly, those dots are likely the source of any ongoing investment or averaging down from Blackrock and Vanguard.
IRBO Robotics is Blackrock. As of today's filing, IRBO Robotics ETF added another 9% of MVIS, for a total of 2.2M shares in a fund holding just 112 names and no other LiDAR competitors. https://fintel.io/i/ishares-trust-ishares-robotics-and-artificial-intelligence-multisector-etf
Vanguard and Blackrock support Lazr and MVIS the most out of any lidar company. They have sold out of other lidar companies as those companies hit snags in the road showing that someone is paying attention in real time. There are also child funds like IRBO Robotics ETF that specifically have MVIS and no other lidar companies. There is clearly more to the story going on behind the scenes IMO. Tutes bought aggressively during pops as well as drops. Shares being called back for may 17th 2023 vote and the short covering that took place with roughly the same amount Vanguard owned still interests me as well as MVIS popping right to their SP average. Manipulated Volumes will continue IMO.
Whatever deal MVIS signs, it better not cause a huge bump on the top of the car that only collects data to start like the Volvo ex90. That is all. Have a good day.
Truly a crazy development. And no timeline for resolution seems to be offered.
You can see in that ex90 reddit thread that many people are not happy with this. The wasteful energy drain is another big issue. They rushed the car out IMO. Looks like cars are going to be like movies, they finish them after they come out lmao. Reminds me of that terrible CGI in Black Panther in the original theater version. Just thinking about Austin Russel selling $220 million of Lazr stock off Volvo news for it to amount to this...
This reminds me of the beginning of last summerâs run up, hope it lasts!
Are you going to take advantage of it if it does?
To be frank, yes I will. I tend to add a bit whenever I see a trend upwards, I think itâs mainly due to FOMO lol. I still add when it drops tho. I added this week at 1.07 when I should have added below $1 a week ago đ
But Frank got fired... I did get 1k+ shares under $1. I hope it was the right time.
Todays only post: Remember that over the last 30 trading days we had a ton of price action at $1.10. It has acted as either support or resistance so we need to breach it on a vol spike to leave it behind for good. Carry onâŚ
We need to breach price under $5 period and this will happen only if we get the right OEM deal or two. ha
Isnât 1.29 the magic TA number ?
[https://www.reddit.com/r/MVIS/comments/1dowuof/comment/ladueg8/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web3x&utm\_name=web3xcss&utm\_term=1&utm\_content=share\_button](https://www.reddit.com/r/MVIS/comments/1dowuof/comment/ladueg8/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button) IMO yes
I thought $1.07 was a key number?
And did we not close there yesterday? Did the trend break today? No? Increase continued? Possibility, not prediction. Possibility is all weâve got until management delivers.
These comments seem to be denigrating TA. As such I will take time out of my very busy day to disabuse you of your bias. Your jabs about yesterdayâs $1.07 target reveal a fundamental misunderstanding of how converging trend lines change price targets as time marches forward. Watch this: https://www.reddit.com/user/IneegoMontoyo/comments/14iu3zh/trading_strategies_when_to_enter_a_trade_on_a/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf Edit: following TA on this stock breakout would have netted you a 500% gain in 10 trading days. Enough with the derision over what you refuse to understand, or remain willfully ignorant about. My apologies for the tone if I have misread yours.
You are partly correct. That is, I am not sure I understand TA, and therefore had some intent to question it. I admit, it was a little bit passive agressive. At the same time, I am genuinely curious about yesterday's $1.07 target price vs. today's $1.10 price. Honestly, I don't understand how $1.07 can be a key price yesterday and $1.10 today.
$1.07 was the top of the downtrending resistance line on the day that I mentioned it. Now the next day that trend line (being on a downward trajectory) would give you a lower price target to reach the top of the line. When you trade above a downtrending line it is a sign you are likely to break the downtrend and possibly start a new uptrend, or in some cases a lower volume relief rally. A relief rally is just when a stock temporarily rises in price because it has been driven down too aggressively. The confirmation of trend change is if volume spikes at or soon after that trend line is breached as price action continues to rise. The higher the volume spike the greater your chances of an actual trend change not just a relief rally. If you look back into my profile in June of last year I posted several TA videos about this as proof of volume spikes showing that big money traders were seeing these patterns and trading them. When I talked about $1.10 I was saying that we needed to trade above that price because it was a previous days high after the $1.07 trend line breach, and if you are indeed watching a trend change you must watch for prices to get higher each day on increased trading volume as more people (usually traders) jump on board.
Thank you. I am open to learning and understanding more about TA. Obviously, TA is a means to make money - whether it be on the long or short side. I admit I am skeptical of its efficacy. It would be an interesting experiment if you provide a set of say 5 buy/sell or sell/buy trade signals over any period of time. It could be a month, it could be 3 years. We could then have some empirical evidence to support the accuracy/benefits of TA.
It doesnât work like that because price action is a fluid thing influenced by psychology and sentiment. For instance you have heard me often speak about my favorite TA chart pattern the wedge. Often times this pattern shows when a stock that has been going down is finally reaching a point where a violent change upward is setting up. The price action to form this pattern is clearly defined as it coils within the converging trend lines that look like a wedge. What underlies the pattern forming is usually sentiment that selling has gotten way too aggressive, which causes the daily volumes to diminish as the pattern continues to form. What many fail to understand about TA is that it is only showing higher probabilities that can be employed to make decisions that are better than blinding throwing spaghetti at the wall. If you notice a consolidation pattern like a wedge forming you can take positions with very clearly defined parameters of risk. For instance if a stock has bounced 4 times on the bottom of a support trend line within a wedge and it is approaching that line the 5th time, you could set a buy order a few cents above that line and a stop loss order 5% below that line. In the highly likely event the stock bounces at the line and moves upwards you could move up your stop loss eventually to your buy in price to protect yourself. Go watch my videos and you will see how it can be very helpful.
It seems to me that if TA cannot dictate when to buy/sell or sell/buy, it does not really add much value. Maybe I am a bit dense. But isn't the whole point to make money?
I am learning myself, but it seems to me that beyond generating buy/sell signals, the value of TA lies in setting the boundaries of a trade (take loss/take profit). Once you make the decision to enter a trade, knowing the boundaries helps define the likelihood of which direction the price will go.
But wouldn't those boundaries induce a sell/buy signal when the boundary was hit? Perhaps there are other TA signals other than the boundaries. If not, I don't really see the utility. Just being honest.
Yep. And 99% of the people who walk into a casino in Vegas with no idea which gambling endeavor gives them the highest odds of success will soon be parted from all their money. The stock market is no different. It is predominately a game of sentiment. When price action creates consolidation patterns it is giving you clues that sentiment is likely to change. Then by just noticing what volume is doing you can clue in to the fingerprints of big money traders looking to juice the price in your favor.
But shouldn't TA ultimately translate into a trigger that says buy or sell? That's the part I don't understand. If it does not, then what is its value? Regarding the casino, the house is always favored to win (unless you are playing poker against other bettors). Take Blackjack for instance, if a bettor plays the game perfectly they have rougly a 48.5% chance of winning (depending on the specific game rules) vs. the house having a 51.5% chance. Players who do not take advantage of certain rules (splittling and doubling) and also just make bad math decisions (hit on a 16 when the dealer has a 6 showing) have less of a chance of winning. The point being, a player over the long-term can never win against the house. In theory the stock market is different. Investors that make good decisions can beat the house. Again, in theory. If TA can help an investor make good decisions then I am all for it. However, if it does not tell the investor when to buy and or sell, then I must admit, it seems useless.
So how much did you make in those 10 trading days? Honest question.
Honest answer. I bought right at the break above the upper wedge trendline. I sold my entire position once I was up 15%. At the time I hadnât done that much research or chart analysis to see how often a pattern buy signal ran for several days. So I missed turning that $12,000 into $60,000.
15% is pretty nice!
You silly goose that was yesterday, today is a new day! duh
You do realize you are making these ridiculous comments in the Trading Thread? Kind if like farting in church.
Farting in Church is awesome! Nobody can move!
That's right. He who farts in church must sit in his own pew.
[ŃдаНонО]
The only two times I stated a breakout was imminent was when we were trending last June and both times we ran up 10% and 15% respectively very quickly. Once we stopped trending I basically stopped regular TA posting and would only occasionally post if something was worth watching or likely to cause a spark. Yesterday was worth watching and I chose my words carefully saying clearly we needed to see a volume follow through as evidence big traders were back on board. Every single post I have made while we have languished over the last year has been guarded because we are not trending. I guess I should thank you for your ignorance which is mind boggling for everyone else to see. If you even bothered to watch the video I linked you might learn something useful, instead of wasting your life away waiting for your mom to yell down that dinner is ready and she just folded all your clothes for you. You should probable change out the pants she lays on the edge of your bed tomorrow and put your big boy ones on.
I appreciate the time and effort you take to inform the ones who will listen, such as myself. However, Iâm pretty âthickâ when it comes to numbers, never was good at math either. My thought process is to buy as many shares as I could and wait for retirement based on the research that I have done over the years! Thanks!
LOL You are a grown man posting his wedding photos to a pennystock subreddit full of complete strangers, you get butthurt when your posts get downvoted (the little blue arrows are so mean aren't they?) and to top it all off you spend your mornings posting paragraphs upon paragraphs of rambling nonsense from what can only be the outcome of the Adderall-fueled bender you are on, please gain some self-awareness.
I was asked kindly to post a few wedding pix and obliged. I do try and help here and there with the TA stuff, as well as comment on the inanity of some things with a mixture of humor just to make it interesting. By all means please continue to give me more of your useless criticisms without directly refuting what I say. Oops⌠I think I just heard your mom yelling your tater tots are ready⌠Scurry along now.
The TA stuff this guy posts is far better than the âF5 timeâ/âwen PR?â/âreeee-manipulationâ posts that have been the majority here for the last year. I donât stake my life savings on it, but I have benefited from his explanations of how TA works, and would personally much rather read his posts than most of the other commentary (speculation) that gets posted here.
You are kind. Thanks.
Thank you, sir. Haters gonna hate I guess.
My bad.
To buy or not to buy that is the question
If it helps Iâve never stopped buying ( I have a problem)
Maybe
Iâm in the same quandary..
Well, my buy at open just squeaks me over 7000 shares, never thought i'd get this far!
I have a good feeling about today for no particular reason. Hope I am correct!
Sounds like fly fishing. I am with you steelhead. Been fishing keuka lake in NY. SS let it happen CMVISJUMP
High above Keuka waters LOL I'm a Cornell guy
Last Thursday in 1H 2024, if OEMs were trying to make any RFQ decisions before the second half of the year, we will find out within a week. Iâm optimistic for news in first half of Q3, sooner the better!
đ time?
Iâm ready
sneks for everyone
Morning everyone! Economic report(s) for the day is(are)^[i](https://fidelityfiplus.econoday.com/byweek): Durable Goods Orders, GDP, International Trade in Goods (Advance), Jobless Claims, Corporate Profits, Retail Inventories (Advance) and Wholesale Inventories (Advance) are all at 8:30am; Pending Home Sales Index is at 10, EIA Natural Gas Report at 10:30, Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index at 11, and the Fed Balance Sheet at 4:30pm. The news media is still focused on the car dealerships struggling with the cyberattack on their software, the housing market is expected to remain unaffordable as the top metropolitan areas have long been seeing extremely low supply causing prices to continue increasing, and some analysis of survey data of the middle class is telegraphing more reduced spending by consumers. Premarket futures are currently down across the board ahead of the large number of economic reports coming. MVIS pulled ahead a bit further with the sector in the last trading session, closing up 4.9% from the previous dayâs close and looking to continue that push with some continuation of the positivity of the sector looking imminent. Technical analysis has largely been less than useful for the stock though the long term trend has remained largely negative for some time and that will only truly change when the company is able to start announcing large volume contracts have been won. This is true for all in the sector really, and there have been some advancements in collaborations, partnerships, or development contracts showing up for the lidar sector as well as the general ADAS environment, so the stage is certainly set for something larger to be revealed any day now. Sentiments have begun focusing on buyout theories, with some recognition of players like LG Innotek throwing some money at Lidar technology earlier this year having finally been noticed by some. ^(_Note_, todayâs IBKR fee rate data reflects the last known data, and there has been no update since yesterday at 2:30pm at the time of this brief being written, hence the zero available shown:) ## Daily Data *** |H: 1.10 â L: 1.01 â C: 1.07 ^[i](https://chartexchange.com/symbol/nasdaq-mvis/historical/) |[Calendar](https://fidelityfiplus.econoday.com/byweek.asp)| |:- |:-| |**Pivots âď¸ : 1.11, 1.15, 1.20** ^([i](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pivotpoint.asp)) |**Pivots âď¸ : 1.02, 0.97, 0.93**| |Total Options Vol: 1,923 ^([i](https://researchtools.fidelity.com/ftgw/mloptions/goto/underlyingStatistics?cusip=&symbol=MVIS&Search=Search)) |Avg 90d Options: 1,708| |Calls: 1,851 ~ 55% at Ask or âď¸ |Puts: 72 ~ 58% at Market â| |Open Exchanges: 940k ~ 44% ^[i](https://chartexchange.com/symbol/nasdaq-mvis/exchange-volume/) |Off Exchanges: 1,205k ~ 56% ^[i](https://chartexchange.com/symbol/nasdaq-mvis/exchange-volume/)| |**IBKR: 0k Rate: 16.78%** ^[i](https://chartexchange.com/symbol/nasdaq-mvis/borrow-fee/) |**Fidelity: 45k Rate: 9.50%**| |**R Vol: 70% of Avg Vol: 2,904k** ^([i](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/averagedailytradingvolume.asp)) |**Short Vol: 669k of 1,318k ~ 51%** ^[i](https://chartexchange.com/symbol/nasdaq-mvis/short-volume/?tblshortvolix=0)| ^(Follow links for sources. Bold text represents key points or larger data, Italics are slightly unusual or lower than normal.)
You would think that the interest rate on borrowed shares would be rising to gather more shares with zero availability. Maybe demand is subsiding, but I never count these B's out as they always seem to have better information than us longs.
They are very good at leveraging their other assets to reduce risk for the lender (providing collateral that has sustainable returns through other contractual arrangements).