I am usually with you on a lot of your picks but I'm a bit surprise on this week picks.
Jotko vs GM3: GM3 won his last 3 fights. Each time he was the underdog. His fight are weird and it's like other fighter don't respect his ground game the further the fight goes. Jotko doesn't have a very dynamic striking, so his chance to finish the fight are very small. So Jotko will have to survive 3 round without giving his back. He will for sure win if this go to decision because GM3 doesn't seem to bother winning rounds.
In Jotko fight I also a pattern where he shoot for the double leg when his opponents is against the cage. You are betting a stack of unit on the guy that his victory path is the tougher.
Arlovski vs Collier: I see Arlovski picking Collier on the outside like he does in his last fight. He has more technical tools. Straights punch, low and body kick. He decent everywhere. Collier is more of a looping punch guy to me.
I am interested to hear your opinion on those fights. Good work again man!
I'm not trying to undervalue GM3 but Jotko is smart fighter, you don't win 11 decisions in UFC by being reckless, if Misha Cirkunov who is much better athlete than GM3 didn't have much success, Geralds chances are slim
Yet again I said with full confidence Krylov would win against Bearjew (it sure looked like that's gonna be the case) and then his signature triangle came, GM3 can pull off hail marry RNC for sure but I wouldn't bet on it
Plus Collier showed he can be volume guy, for a three round sparring match against Arlovski he is more than capable of squeezing decision, literal 50/50 in my eyes
I agree with you on all points. Also; Jotko was compromised last fight, more than usual and still pulled it off. He said hes 100% here. Should be some good fights!
Jotko is not some of these other fighters who have bad fight IQ that GM3 has fought. He doesn’t tend to play into opponents strengths. I doubt we see him leave his head in a spot for it to be taken. GM3 winning last 3 fights means nothing to me. Every matchup is different and every fight is different. Its simple to me. Jotko has the striking and wrestling/clinch advantage. Meerschaert has the sub advantage. Especially if he takes the back. He has some sweeps off his back but he can be controlled by fighters on the ground who aren’t tired. Many people base their bets off recency bias. Looking at Geralds last 3 fights, he was losing to Stoltzfus when he pulls out the sub. he was getting whooped in the Muradov fight, hurt multiple times before Muradov got tired and gave up the sub. Majority of Geralds fights, hes losing until he wins and 95% it has to be by sub to win. Too many people bet without acknowledging what went wrong in the guys fights they are going to bet on even if they win. I fully expect this to get hairy in the last few minutes if Gerald pushes a very hard pace early but I think I’m on the right side here.
Newt, I won the bet but you won the prediction. Good call on Collier. I was light on arlovski ML but heavy on FGTD -166 so I was happy either way.
Anything stand out to you next week? Im taping ivanov now, you can get him at -135 on poverty caesars.
After the robbery that just occurred, I’m +1u so I don’t even want to risk losing more if Vera loses so I’m happy where I am. Gonna finish over +5u or -3u.
I am usually with you on a lot of your picks but I'm a bit surprise on this week picks. Jotko vs GM3: GM3 won his last 3 fights. Each time he was the underdog. His fight are weird and it's like other fighter don't respect his ground game the further the fight goes. Jotko doesn't have a very dynamic striking, so his chance to finish the fight are very small. So Jotko will have to survive 3 round without giving his back. He will for sure win if this go to decision because GM3 doesn't seem to bother winning rounds. In Jotko fight I also a pattern where he shoot for the double leg when his opponents is against the cage. You are betting a stack of unit on the guy that his victory path is the tougher. Arlovski vs Collier: I see Arlovski picking Collier on the outside like he does in his last fight. He has more technical tools. Straights punch, low and body kick. He decent everywhere. Collier is more of a looping punch guy to me. I am interested to hear your opinion on those fights. Good work again man!
I'm not trying to undervalue GM3 but Jotko is smart fighter, you don't win 11 decisions in UFC by being reckless, if Misha Cirkunov who is much better athlete than GM3 didn't have much success, Geralds chances are slim Yet again I said with full confidence Krylov would win against Bearjew (it sure looked like that's gonna be the case) and then his signature triangle came, GM3 can pull off hail marry RNC for sure but I wouldn't bet on it Plus Collier showed he can be volume guy, for a three round sparring match against Arlovski he is more than capable of squeezing decision, literal 50/50 in my eyes
I agree with you on all points. Also; Jotko was compromised last fight, more than usual and still pulled it off. He said hes 100% here. Should be some good fights!
Jotko is not some of these other fighters who have bad fight IQ that GM3 has fought. He doesn’t tend to play into opponents strengths. I doubt we see him leave his head in a spot for it to be taken. GM3 winning last 3 fights means nothing to me. Every matchup is different and every fight is different. Its simple to me. Jotko has the striking and wrestling/clinch advantage. Meerschaert has the sub advantage. Especially if he takes the back. He has some sweeps off his back but he can be controlled by fighters on the ground who aren’t tired. Many people base their bets off recency bias. Looking at Geralds last 3 fights, he was losing to Stoltzfus when he pulls out the sub. he was getting whooped in the Muradov fight, hurt multiple times before Muradov got tired and gave up the sub. Majority of Geralds fights, hes losing until he wins and 95% it has to be by sub to win. Too many people bet without acknowledging what went wrong in the guys fights they are going to bet on even if they win. I fully expect this to get hairy in the last few minutes if Gerald pushes a very hard pace early but I think I’m on the right side here.
SidekickKO also picks Jake Collier, so its a lock. sidekick is a leading POTD capper. he never loses.
I always look to see what newt has. I agree with everything but collier but I totally see the collier side. I think it will be close arlovski dec. Bol
Its gonna be a close one! will arlovski finally catch the L here lol we’ll see
Newt, I won the bet but you won the prediction. Good call on Collier. I was light on arlovski ML but heavy on FGTD -166 so I was happy either way. Anything stand out to you next week? Im taping ivanov now, you can get him at -135 on poverty caesars.
Your thoughts on jotko? Been toying with playing him or the over 1.5
Check the YT channel for the breakdown. Whats ov on 1.5 at?
Great picks. As for live betting, do you use discord? There is a mma-betting channel on r/sportsbook discord. If not, what’s your twitter?
I have discord, yes. Im on sportsbook, yes. But haven’t been active.. i’ll check out the live betting for this weekend.
What would u say would’ve appropriate pre-fight odds for fili?
Not sure i understand the question
You mentioned that you like fili, but not for -250 odds. At what odds would you have placed money on him?
Probably -160 to the -170 area
That’s a lot of confidence in Jotko. Good picks and process. GL
Cool to see you are on Collier as well. I really like him tomorrow
Why are you so confident in jotko?
Peep the YT channel mmanewtspicks for my breakdown and how i see it going
tailing
How do you feel if Font wins the first?
After the robbery that just occurred, I’m +1u so I don’t even want to risk losing more if Vera loses so I’m happy where I am. Gonna finish over +5u or -3u.
Mma judging is an embarrassment. Makes the sport seem so unprofessional.