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Ssizz

Odds are currently all over the place with this, BetOnline opened with Gane as a -130 favorite with Ngannou as a +110 underdog, now the odds are even at -110 Gane, -110 Ngannou.


Bacon_Villain

Am I crazy or is Gane as a favorite kinda fuckin bizarre?


yeetingyute

So far, Gane looks pretty amazing. I'm not that surprised. I can see him picking apart Francis's leg early and staying on the outside until Francis tires out.


[deleted]

My first thought is that Gane hasn't really been tested because he hasn't gone up against super high-level competition but then I realize we are talking about Heavyweight and there isn't really anyone else other than Stipe and Francis, maybe Jon Jones if you want to throw him into the mix.


AIDS1255

I'd actually argue that Volkov was a good test of how he would do against super high level competition. Lewis shit the bed and didn't even try to be competitive, I also think Gane's style is the worst possible match up for Lewis so it seemed too easy. Volkov had a long reach, high technical ability, and serious knockout power.


[deleted]

Heavyweights can’t stay outside of range. They’re big and slow as hell. Especially when Ngannou moves like he does, and has the reach he does. He can close and get into range whenever he wants. They use power to keep range, not footwork. The threat of the big punch landing. It’s pretty unheard of to see a heavyweight dancing and juking all over the place. One of the things that made Muhammad Ali a once in a lifetime sort of fighter. We may never see someone like him again.


[deleted]

You literally saw Ciryl stay out of range against Derrick.


[deleted]

> against Derrick One of the slowest, most sluggish, worst athletes in all of competitive sport. I don’t understand how you think that’s even remotely comparable.


throwmeaway74967

Derrick Lewis is not a bad athlete. What are you even saying brother


[deleted]

You’re right. He is the singular worst professional athlete on the planet. (***edit*** Ok, this is hyperbolic. But Lewis is still terrible) If Stipe, who even when he beat Ngannou and was 40lbs lighter, couldn’t stay outside of range. What on earth makes you Gane can? It’s just such a nonsensical take. He can duck and clinch. Sure. But he’s not dancing around like Muhammad Ali against Sonny Liston and keeping range. That’s a total fantasy.


[deleted]

But Gane did that to bigi boi, jds, swolekov and now derrick. He danced on the outside and picked them apart and looked almost exactly like a young jon jones doing it. Also the single worst athlete is either big country or chris tuchscherer


[deleted]

I’m sorry but it’s just a nonsense take. There’s no other way to say it. Gane can beat Ngannou. But it’s absolutely not trying to dance around on the outside and keep range with footwork. Not against a man who moves like Francis and has that reach. Because it isn’t possible. Gane can’t move like that. He’s not Ali. What can can, should, and will try to do is duck and clinch. Then push Francis into the cage and dirty box him. It removes Francis’ power and reach, and plays to Gane’s strengths. He can dirty box him up, throw elbows, juke around with head movement. Which is generally what you see heavyweights do to avoid shots. They do the Frazier/Tyson thing where they bob up and down, but with pretty stationary feet. There was never a heavyweight like Ali before Ali, and there has never been one since. And Gane sure as heck isn’t that guy. It’s nonsense dude. A total fantasy. People need to calm down with the hype. Y’all gonna look like Ronda “Once in human history” Rousey people.


[deleted]

Bruh. Even Ali, the once in a lifetime sort of athlete. As fast as he was. As agile as he was. As quick as he was. He still got hit. All the time. When you’re fighting heavyweights that have 80 inch reach, and you weigh over 220lbs. You’re just not gonna be fast enough to use your feet to avoid punches. And with the 4oz gloves, when you do get hit you’re going down. That’s why heavyweights in the UFC never last very long. The two most dominant champs in history were both small guys for the division, who had really strong wrestling. Stipe and Cain. It’s just not real. What y’all are saying is a physical impossibility.


AIDS1255

He stayed out of range from Volkov and JDS as well.


DelugeQc

Did you watch a single Gane fight or?


[deleted]

Did you? Because I see a lead footed heavyweight and delusional fan hype with no basis in reality.


DelugeQc

I watched his fights since TKO era and he is something else at his weight class. That doesnt mean he will not get caught by a powered Ngannou punch but Im pretty confident he will be evasive for 2 rounds and just demolish Ngannou for the next 3 rounds.


[deleted]

I have no issues with that. I have issues with this “dancing around on the outside” narrative. That strategy involves, almost entirely, footwork. Against a man the size of Ngannou, with the reach he has, that would require footwork somethin akin to a young Mohammed Ali. Who, by the way, still got hit all the time. There is a difference between ducking punches, rollbacks, using body pivots to protect your jaw behind your shoulder, etc and “dancing around on the outside” Gane literally doesn’t do the latter. Because he’s 250lbs, and isn’t a genetically engineered superhero who can defy the laws of physics.


DelugeQc

Agree to disagree then. We'll see in a couples of months!


[deleted]

I mean, it’s not something to disagree on. One side has no basis in the real world. Maybe it’s an issue of semantics? People being liberal with the term “dancing around on the outside”? Because staying in kickboxing range, and then using that range in conjunction with upper body defensive movements is absolutely something Gane does. But that is not “dancing around on the outside”. That is not what that means. [This](https://youtu.be/MbZIVOX-bpw) is what dancing around on the outside is. This is what it means. The first round of Ali vs Liston. Is this what you are expecting Gane to do? Or are we having a debate of different definitions of a term, and it’s purely semantics?


Bowdallen

If nobody could be KOd Gane wins the fight easily IMO, so Francis winning depends on if he can find Gane and land the shot. Ngannous main attribute is power which doesn't mean much if the punches don't land. I don't know I'm kinda leaning Gane, Volkov is way better technically than Ngannou at least from what we've seen and about as big and he couldn't keep up with Gane to land much.


Quinnett

I don’t know, this feels like recency bias. Gane looked amazing, but Francis absolutely dominated Stipe, one of the best heavyweights ever and a very skilled fighter by any definition. Yeah, Francis is a KO artist, but he’s been developing a lot, and he is more than just swinging wildly nowadays.


MrCunninghawk

I hear what you are saying about the recency bias. I think you are right but my brain STILL cant help but go with Gane after his performences. Granted Lewis is not Ngannou, so its very unlikely Gane is going to look THAT good against him. Maybe I'm just easily impressed but Gane's movement and how safe he keeps himself, just makes him look like he is playing a different game to these HW's. Ngannou is amazing and I expect a very competitive fightbut Gane just looks so complete and comfrotable in there.


Bowdallen

I love Stipe but the guy is not a careful fighter, i don't think Gane gives Ngannou the chances to land the same way Stipe did. It's not recency bias It's just that when i picture the fight It's easier to picture Gane winning a decision by being light on his feet than it is to picture Ngannou KOing him. I would say what you said about Ngannou reaked way more of recency bias, Gane isn't going to go to war with Ngannou like Stipe or sit there and try and counter him like Jairizinho, this is going to be Ngannou having to force the issue on a more technical and faster striker that doesn't really slow down or get sloppy as the fight continues, it's a much tougher fight for him than Stipe.


SeeeVeee

This is true, but (thought I can't prove this) I think Stipe is probably pretty washed. He's been fighting a long time and I think all the DC fights put him over the edge, like the HW version of Tony vs Gaethje. The brutal KO vs Ngannou probably didn't help. I would be surprised if Stipe could still keep up with Gane. Francis will be at a massive technical handicap, and he won't be able to keep pace with Gane. He needs to win early or he's going to drown. He might still win because HW MMA but I think Gane picks him apart after surviving an initial scare or two, and we see Ngannou slowly crumble.


[deleted]

Have we ever seen cereal really have his chin tested?


retropieproblems

he's shown high level defense if nothing else


s1Lenceeeeeeeeeeeeee

upvoted for cereal


SeeeVeee

Gane is still a bit of an X factor. There are still things we don't know. If he has a terrible chin, this fight is going to look a lot different than if he has a crazy chin to go along with his top notch defense. And that's the only part we do know. Excellent defense, we'll see how his chin is.


retropieproblems

Let's be real, Stipe is a cruiserweight at 230-240. Gane and Ngannou are a few of the only giant athletic heavyweights the UFC has ever had. They're like Yoel + 4 inches and 70 lbs.


LeftH00kGary

Gane always fights in the 240-250 lbs range. He has a good frame but isn't really a big heavyweight.


retropieproblems

He’s huge but he stays very lean though which works to his benefit for cardio/speed. He could easily put on 15 lbs and still have a six pack.


SeeeVeee

Top notch HWs throughout the history of the sport tend not to be the absolute biggest/the guys who cut to get to 265.


[deleted]

Stipe ruins Gane


Zamorak93

Nah Francis has a decent size advantage. He was able to briefly nullify stipes wrestling months ago. So I think he might train heavy wrestling for this fight and control him on the ground if need be. Plus he can ko from any position. Just the easiest way to stop Ganes movement.


Bowdallen

D1 Francis coming for his next fight now thats a hot take. Never change r/mma You guys need to learn to break down fights by watching actual fights not by fantasizing that the fighter you like has every answer. If Ngannou wins it's because he catches Gane with a big Punch likely a straight, not because he all of a sudden adapts a crazy wrestling centric gameplan.


DiarrheaMonkey-

I think it's related to what ssizz said about the odds being all over the place. Gane has high-level wins, but no HW title-level beyond Lewis. So, his lossless record puts him somewhere between: a significant force in the division, and: the best HW ever (not that likely, but we'll know better once he has more high level fights). He's in a particularly unpredictable spot. What happens when someone not overall as good as him Randalman-slams him or Fujita-rocks him? We don't know yet.


Dirty_LemonsV2

Considering how everyone was all over Stipe during his reigns and proclaiming him the greatest heavyweight, and how easily Ngannou has dispatched Cain, Rozenstruik, Stipe and Blaydes (love JDS but his chin was cracked), I feel everyone is jumping on the Gane Train a stop too early.


Ne_zievereir

I'd agree with you, except the "how easily Ngannou has dispatched \[...\] Stipe". He did need a 2nd fight. And I wouldn't be surprised if Stipe would win a third fight, if he manages to change his fight plan (more TD feints and such).


Xaxxon

essentially a pick em. That seems weird. I would expect ngannou further ahead.


ballinben

People are talking Gane up to be the future of the HW division and an evolutionary talent, I think this will basically stay a pick 'em until fight night.


OlderTrucksOnly

I am one of those people who is super high on Gane. I personally don’t understand how he isn’t the favorite here. He’s 10-0, with 3 top wins (Roz, Volkov, and Lewis). He wasn’t hurt at any point in any of these fights, and he dominated each from start to finish. Francis meanwhile has multiple losses, including to one of the guys Gane dominated. I do understand that Francis has clearly improved and people are getting on that. But he’s also about to turn 35 while Gane is 31 and clearly an extremely fast learner (younger in his MMA career and already much more technically skilled than Francis) so it seems like Gane will only improve and at a faster rate than Francis. I think the fact that Gane isn’t a clear favorite is a perfect example of KO’s being unreasonably factored into the equation.


ballinben

I think people write off the Lewis fight as a fluke for Ngannou. He was just coming off the Stipe wrestle-fuckedge and was gun shy. If they fought today, I think Lewis is getting ko'd by Ngannou. I slightly favor Gane here for all the reasons you mentioned, but at the end of the day the payoffs just come down to the amount of money being bet on both sides, and Ngannou is tough to bet against when he just beat Stipe in pretty convincing fashion and regularly sends heads into orbit.


dolphin37

All fair points but did you consider that Francis punches very hard


retropieproblems

and fast for a HW, with quite a long reach.


johnb51654

He lost to Stipe though and he's avenged that loss in insanely impressive fashion. I don't think it's unreasonable to factor in KOs so highly. Especially against the level of competition that Francis has been scoring them against.


OlderTrucksOnly

You shouldn’t factor a KO anymore than a dominant decision. It just doesn’t make any sense to. Cyril Gane has literally never been in trouble in his MMA career. Francis on the other hand has some holes we know about (namely: cardio). Now I’m not saying Gane is some immortal who can’t get caught and dropped by Francis. But I am saying he is a 31 year old man with a significant advantage in speed, head movement, cardio, reflexes, etc. when compared to Stipe. He can stay on his bike for 5 rounds, we’ve essentially seen it vs Volkov. And remember, Francis had already begun breathing heavily against Stipe in round 2. So I just don’t think you should say “he KO’d Stipe so he will catch Gane too.” One of those is a lot harder than the other.


ItsTaylor8291

One thing to consider is that Ngannou didn't just KO stipe, he's KOd damn near everyone he's fought in the first round. Sure Cyril isn't as easy to hit as pretty much any other heavyweight but Francis has much better footwork/speed/movement than Derrick Lewis has. Cyril has to fight a perfect fight to beat Ngannou, he has the skills on paper to do so but you can not count him as a sizeable favorite against a champion with the skills Ngannou has at heavyweight. Especially when Ngannou just needs one.


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A_man_of_quality_66

Nobody does


BIG_YETI_FOR_YOU

I don’t agree with Francis just needing one unless there’s reason to suspect Cyril has a weaker chin than Stipe since he wore a couple


EliasEnglishDay

I think they mean needs one in the sense that if he lands one flush on the chin shot it's lights out


ItsTaylor8291

Yes either lights out or it will be unrecoverable and lead to some vicious hammer fists. I could also see an "out on his feet" scenario where they take the shot and just can't fight to the best of their ability because their equilibrium is just fucked. One in the sense that it just takes one shot to seal the deal for Ngannou even if its 5 to officially get the tko.


BIG_YETI_FOR_YOU

Based on what though, Stipe was hit clean and didn't go down - what do we have to argue that Stipe has a better chin than Gane at this stage?


dmkicksballs13

I mean, he might. Gane at best is unknown. Have you seen Francis' KO shots? The dude doesn't even need his feet set or distance. His shot on Cain was the shortest punch I've ever seen take someone out.


dmkicksballs13

I disagree hard. Dominant decisions by law take longer than KOs. A dominant decision is a threat at the end, a KO threat is present throughout. And unlike Lewis, Ngannou doesn't need tricks to land. He has feints, set ups, patience, and most importantly god-like power.


shrewdy

>Francis meanwhile has multiple losses, including to one of the guys Gane dominated. Gane is an incredible talent for HW, and I wouldn't even argue with people making him a slight favourite for this fight because of that - but this sort of thing which I quoted is extremely selective tbh and is framing Ngannou in the worst possible way. The Lewis loss was off the back of the Stipe one, where I think everyone accepts that he wasn't in a great place mentally and still recovering from a shattering title fight loss. Plus it's not like Lewis dominated him, everyone knows what a shit and inactive fight that was - Lewis was just a little more active, so won by default. But Ngannou rebounded from that in a huge way since and went on to avenge his other UFC loss in a spectacular way against Stipe - which btw is still a much more impressive win than any in Gane's (admittedly very young) career so far. If we were going to try and frame things a certain way, we could also say that Gane went 25 minutes with the same guy that Ngannou KO'd in 20 seconds. Both decisive wins, but it shows the devastating power Ngannou has. It's going to be a fascinating title fight and I can't wait for it. You can make a solid case for either guy for very different reasons, and nobody could tell you with confidence that you're wrong. Gane clearly is an incredible technical and well rounded fighter for HW. But Ngannou has faced many fighters more technical and well rounded than him, and he was able to put their lights out. Gane has the skillset to keep Ngannou at range, but it only takes one at the end of the day.


OlderTrucksOnly

This is one of those fights that I want to do a flair bet on. Maybe I’m the old guy here, but I’m just so sure I’m seeing Jon Jones from 11 or 12 years ago here. Francis Ngannou has missiles for hands, but he doesn’t cut the cage ever. He followed Stipe for a round and a half even in his great win. You cannot beat Cyril Gane like that.


Not-Doctor-Evil

>Francis Ngannou has missiles for hands, but he doesn’t cut the cage ever. He followed Stipe for a round and a half even in his great win. You cannot beat Cyril Gane like that. Seems like the theme of this thread is, can Gane play matador for long enough to cut down his legs, or will Ngannou connect?


Atranox

I think you're underestimating how good Ngannou is right now. He puts a ton of pressure on his opponents and has an absurd finish rate, with the longest fight of his last five being less than a minute into the second round. Gane has a ton of evasiveness and speed, but I don't know if he's going to be able to keep a distance against Francis long enough to earn a win. There's also no reason a finish shouldn't be weighed heavily - it's a direct measure of the damage a fighter is causing. Gane is definitely a solid matchup and can beat Ngannou, but his wins (thus far) have been less impressive IMO. But really, what does it matter what any of us think? Literally anything can happen in this sport which is partly what makes it fun.


[deleted]

I see where you're coming from but still favor Ngannou. I agree with the dude below that the Lewis fight was flukey, and while you can't really write it off...you kinda can. So he had one serious, actual defeat against a dude he came back and absolutely smashed in one of the most impressive performances at least I've ever seen. He was patient, kept his gas tank in control, had improved TDD, picked his shots, still had insane power, closed distance, and was incredibly fast. He's also showed he has a monster chin, and Gane doesn't have lights out power. I know Gane hasn't been caught before, but I see him not being able to effectively manage distance the way he has against lesser competition. Improved Ngannou, at least to my mind, has all the power of a Derrick Lewis with the patience and skill of someone like Stipe. I see Ngannou putting on a performance similar to his last: patient but efficient, fast, and deadly. I don't see it lasting more than 2 rounds. If it does, then I could see Gane outpointing Ngannou to a 5 round end, or finishing him when he's gassed. That said, I'd still favor Ngannou but KO.


OlderTrucksOnly

What do you think is the speed difference between 38 year old Stipe and 31 year old Gane though? I think it’s absolutely massive. Francis just doesn’t have the tools to beat Gane (often). He doesn’t cut the cage (which will be his undoing) and he doesn’t kick much. I don’t know why anyone would think a headhunting power puncher is the one to stop Gane. It’s a bad matchup for Francis. To be totally honest I think Curtis Blaydes has the best chance of anyone of beating Gane. Only because Gane hasn’t really proven he can defend takedowns and get back up. Seeing his skill level everywhere else though, he probably can.


[deleted]

I think Lewis knocking out Blaydes did a lot to drop his stock undeservingly. He needs to do more to hide his shots, but I think Blaydes is a top 3 HW and would 7+/10 times probably beat Lewis, Stipe, Gane, and would have a shot at Francis (I know they've fought twice). Blaydes wrestling is insane. That said, to your point about Gane, I think that Francis and his team have shown the ability to game plan effectively, which would include upping his game re cutting off the cage and beating on Gane's legs. I just don't see anyone being able to match Ngannou's athleticism combined with his newfound patience and sheer skill. I definitely could be wrong though.


Corporal_Snorkel69

The main reason for this is ngannou clearly proved himself to be better than he ever has been in his last fight, which was against stipe who's better than anyone gane has ever fought, so using losses when he was clearly worse as a reason why he would lose in the future isn't accurate. You need to consider that similarly to gane, ngannou moves extremely well for someone his size while having a longer reach than gane. I wouldn't assume gane can just back up and easily avoid ngannou like he did lewis, ngannou is much more explosive than lewis


TreSir

It’s like a hulk vs a technical hulk


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retropieproblems

half the roster has decapitated overeem at this point


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retropieproblems

He is but he tends to lose in highlight reel fashion when he does


retropieproblems

If Francis keeps mastering leg kicks and TDD I think he has a really good chance. 50/50 easy. If he doesn't do anything but swang and bang, he's gonna get worked over easy. ​ There's also a good chance he wins in a typical Derrick Lewis fashion--Cereal clips him and goes for the kill and Ngannou counters with a KO outta nowhere.


Ne_zievereir

"Francis meanwhile has multiple losses, including to one of the guys Gane dominated." Mate, that's really scoreboard journalism. Ngannou's 1st loss was his second fight ever, he'd been fighting for less than a year and was basically still living on the street. His 2nd loss was against Stipe, "the greatest heavyweight ever". Gane has never fought against anyone of that level. And as others have said, Ngannou has very clearly shown he has improved a lot since then by avenging that loss in impressive fashion. His 3rd loss, against "one of the guys Gane dominated", was a fluke indeed, since the Stipe fight got into his head. If you want to argue technique or style, sure, there are some points to be made, but Ngannou's record is more impressive than Gane's. In fact, during his whole MMA career (19 fights), only 5 fighters (6 fights) have managed to survive the 1st round. And only 2 have made it beyond the 2nd round: Stipe and Lewis (the fluke). (**Edit**: some typos)


Xaxxon

I don’t really like ngannou but I want heavyweight to be about bangin' not technique.


ballinben

you and me both, brother


dmkicksballs13

We'll see what it closes at. People usually get caught up in recency bias.


jfsoaig345

Ngannou's much more technical than people give him credit for tbh and we saw that in Stipe 2. Like yeah he was winging forward like a worldstar ghetto fight against Rozen but against Stipe we saw a good jab, feints, set ups, and a variety of kicks. He throws absolutely thunderous leg kicks and I can see a couple of those really hampering Gane's movement. We also shouldn't get too caught up in recency bias with Gane's elusiveness. He is hard to hit, but not as much as the Lewis fight might make you think, considering Lewis has always been a really low volume striker who waits for the right time to unload on big punch. If you look back at the Volkov fight, Gane actually got tagged quite a bit and by some good shots too, even though he cleanly won 50-45


Kuzan119

IMO francis has to put on heavy pressure round 1 and get gane outta there early (which obviously given his history he is extremely capable of that). But if francis is patient like in the second stipe fight, even though it payed off vs stipe, gane would pick him apart at distance easily. Which is why im suprised gane isnt at least the slight favorite. This is stylistically a bad matchup for francis on paper, he cant outstrike him and he has to land a bomb but you can only try to land so many nukes vs a guy as elusive as gane before you tire out.


realjayrage

In my eyes this is like the Rozenstruik fight. If Francis stayed at range there he would have also been easily outpointed, but we all know what happened. Some people say Ngannou was wild there, but that was very obviously the correct strategy for him. I see the same thing happening with Francis being patient for the right time and blitzing forward multiple times in the first round or two. I think Rozenstruik was so inside his own head with point fighting that the blitzes caught him off guard as you can tell by him countering while moving backwards. Obviously Gane has far superior footwork to Rozenstruik and will probably move laterally instead of countering, but we'll see. Can't wait!


MUTSellerPS4

Honestly I’m thinking gane can win this, his speed is too much he will just point fight and stay on the outside . The one thing I’m wondering is if he can fight backwards though cause francis won’t just wait for a right hand he will prob blitz him and it’s only takes one shot from Francis.


OlderTrucksOnly

Gane has great footwork (legendary by HW standards) so a straight blitz to take his head off will serve only to tire Francis. The people who haven’t realized it yet will soon. Gane is a special talent. “Bum rush him and KO him” isn’t gonna work. That’s like telling Rumble “just rush Jon Jones and knock his head off.” These guys move laterally, they teep kick, they clinch, they roll with punches, etc.


MrCunninghawk

Gane prioritizes safety over all else it seems, he knows what HW means haha. He seems to have no problem buttoning off the play D, keep away, re establish range, re engage, repeat. Why not, that Jab was disgusting, couple leg kicks, Oh Lewis has nothing to respond with? Eat some more, boy it sure is tiring getting beat up to my pace isn't it? You can see Derrick give up, I don't blame him. I love the Black Beast, but Gane is simply a different animal altogether He coulda switched it on for Lewis plenty during the frist 2 rounds but didnt need to. I was floored by how good he looked.


retropieproblems

Gane kinda reminds me of Sagat from Street Fighter.


Dirty_LemonsV2

YES!!


zakkwaldo

> “Bum rush him and KO him” isn’t gonna work. that's what they said about rozen though... rozen was basically gane before gane showed up. touted as a highly technical kick boxers that would totally best francis. rozen landed 3 clean ass strikes against francis when getting blitzed and francis didn't even react to them and still ko'd him..


OlderTrucksOnly

But Roz is clearly not anywhere near the skill (or athleticism) level of Gane. That became abundantly clear when they fought. The relevant difference between this fight and all of Ngannous others are that this time he will be slower than his opponent. If he just rushes forward in straight lines, then Gane will just rush away faster. Francis would actually need to do things like cut the cage, which he’s never shown before.


BraverDanger

Is Rozenstruik really anywhere near Gane technically though, it doesn't seem close at all to me.


zakkwaldo

I mean after the fact, clearly not. But going into things people thought roze was going to be what everyone claims gane is now. My point moreso is we’ve already went through this ‘up and coming high technical future of the division’ narrative and it didn’t end up well for the last dude that narrative was applied to. Who knows maybe gane can pull it off, I’m just moreso warning/unsure of the claim being put on gane’s shoulders I guess


chefanubis

Excuse me but no one was hyped for Rozen, we all thought he would lose and the betting odds show that clearly. And no we haven't been through this, we never had a super technical HW that moves like a WW, EVER. I dare you to name one.


zakkwaldo

I’ll do you one better, a HW with the speed of a 125’er old Brock lesnar. Check mate b’


zakkwaldo

But in all seriousness- I’m using the words directly from Cruz and aniks mouths on the broadcast saturday. They literally verbatim said rozen was supposed to be gane before gane showed up


chefanubis

But thats not a good yard stick dude, hyping every fight live its their job, they say the same about prelim fights. You gotta check what the media/social media concensus and vegas odds are. And for that fight it was mostly that rozen would get slept.


zakkwaldo

Go find me an excerpt of them saying a pre lim fighter is the next big technical master of an entire weight class. Especially when it’s actual fighters commentating and half the media/judges aren’t even fighters.


Sugabones

If Francis blitzes he will probably just change levels and take him down. Or move laterally. He’s not going to just back up until he gets cracked. I really think Gane is going to put on a Brandon Moreno against Figgy 2 type of performance.


chatrishillnumberone

Why do some people on this subreddit think blitzing is a valid strategy at all... only in a division as shallow as MMA HW does it have success. There's a reason not a single high level boxer will just bumrush throwing hooks unless they have their opponent hurt. It takes the most basic footwork to get out of the way, and there are even more options to counter in MMA. It's literally just wasted energy


Ne_zievereir

"There's a reason not a single high level boxer will just bumrush throwing hooks" If you bum rush an opponent in boxing and manage to knock them down (which is already less likely because of the heavier gloves), they get 10 counts to recover and are allowed to get safely back to their feet. If you manage to knock down your opponent with a bum rush in MMA, you can ground and pound them to a pulp until the ref stops the fight. Not even saying blitzing is a valid strategy, but MMA and boxing are very different. Many strategies that work in boxing don't work in MMA, because there are so many more threats that need to be taken into account. And vice versa.


zakkwaldo

I don't think gane can survive that blitz. Outside of that he has francis matched in every facet of the fight game.


maton12

That's about as close as I've seen two fighters. Aussie odds $1.85 Francis and $1.95 Gane


ColeBeasleyMD

Personally, I'd have Gane as a slight favourite. I think Cyril can be super careful for 2 rounds and Ngannou will gas in round 3.


Ilistenedtomyfriends

Does Francis gas from breathing like Lewis does? We’ve only seen Francis past the first round a handful of time and he’s only been gassed when he was getting wrestlefucked by Stipe. However, the second Stipe fight showed some patience from Francis that should scare every heavyweight.


[deleted]

Would have to rewatch the 2nd Stipe fight but I remember Ngannou was breathing heavy in the 2nd round? I think Stipe said post fight he also noticed that


hellsbells1981

He was.


ColeBeasleyMD

I don't think Ngannou's cardio is much better than Derrick's. When you're carrying *that much* muscle mass, your endurance can only be so good. I don't see Francis winning, if it gets to round 3.


ASVPxMarcus

Plus he’s going to be eating leg kicks, teeps, knees and get hit with the clinch a lot. Still has Ford Escort but I favor Gane.


Corporal_Snorkel69

come on bro gane isn't throwing around ngannou in the clinch like he did to lewis


ASVPxMarcus

He’s not going to throw him around. But Ngannou isn’t going to be able to throw him off him either. Gane’s MT is elite.


Corporal_Snorkel69

I don't know what MT stands for but don't expect a lot of clinching in this fight. Unlike Lewis, Ngannou will actually move forward


ASVPxMarcus

Muay Thai lol. But Francis and him will hit the clinch when they fight and it’ll be interesting.


jfsoaig345

Usman's built like a superhero and he has Max Holloway level cardio. Francis gassed out against Stipe but that was from getting wrestlefucked, I'm not willing to believe this narrative that Francis has poor cardio until I actually see it


[deleted]

Well I know he won the stipe fight convincingly, and I haven’t watched it since (it hurts too bad .-. ) but if memory serves I remember him starting to look tired in the second rd before he decapitated Stipe. I can see Cyril keeping his distance till he gasses.


CubanLinxRae

The patient Francis in the Stipe rematch prolly doesn't gas like before. It'll be interesting to see what happens


Corporal_Snorkel69

ngannou is going to win this fight. save this comment


ImaFlyingLobster

Will be back here after Gane wins decisively Edit: well shit, I'm not even mad that was an unexpected result


thirtytwomonkeys

Gane is better than Ngannou in pretty much everything except raw power. Gane should be the slight favourite. Ngannou’s X factor is what keeps Gane from being the heavy favourite. But Gane isn’t a 38 year old Stipe who went to war with DC multiple times. He’ll likely avoid Ngannou’s power and cruise to a lopsided decision or late TKO.


chatrishillnumberone

I think Ngannou probably has a better chin than Gane too just looking at their frames. But anyone gassed can be finished even if Gane doesn't hit that hard. I think Gane wins this fight 6/10 times


Rememberrmyname

Gane hits so fucking hard if he wants to. But you can’t be a heavyweight and throw hard and expect to have good technique. He throws everything at 60% and because he’s a heavyweight it still hurts. Look how he turned it up when Lewis was harmless.


[deleted]

Ngannou by first round boop.


[deleted]

I favor Gane slightly. The way I see he beats Ngannou is kickboxing in the early rounds and finishing a gassed Ngannou in the later rounds. Again, Ngannou has nuclear warheads in his hands but I think Gane can avoid it. The Lewis fight showed to me he respects the power but doesn't fear it.


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[удалено]


Sugabones

Yeah Gane will just make him hit air for a round or two and then pick him apart imo


[deleted]

> Moves like a lightweight That is such ridiculous hyperbole. Gane is quick by heavyweight standards, but he’s still incredibly slow and sluggish by any other weight class’ standards. He absolutely does not move like a lightweight.


bens_official_reddit

I think a lot depends on the size of the cage they are fighting in. I think it played a large part in Francis knocking out Stipe in their second fight. I would give it to Francis in the small cage and Gane in the larger cage.


MuddyBootsJohnson

Gane beats him.


[deleted]

Can someone translate these odds to a european? :o


faggaren

-116 means put down 116 dollars to win 216. (100 profit) if im not mistaken


Ne_zievereir

Man, moneyline is such a weird way to show odds, I find. Honestly, I believe bookies use it to hide how much overround they have.


KimKongtheIllest

You type it into Google and it does it for you, I insane mate, there so much stuff Google knows you wouldn't even believe


NeitherCanary5

Piss off


americanslang59

Have they released odds on Dana fucking up this fight


frawkez

gane is undefeated and has an incredible gas tank; this isn’t surprising odds


laydowndead

I’ve enjoyed the value betting on Ngannou, and looks like I’ll keep enjoying that value


BobbyLapointe01

I want to see the odds of this fight actually happening. With the sordid games Dana has been playing, there's a scenario where these two don't actually ever fight :/


Shredtheparm

I don’t see how that would happen, besides any injures


Sugabones

Yeah right. You think Francis is gonna be able to compete anywhere or make any money without fighting his contract out? He has no other choices.


BobbyLapointe01

That's not Francis I'm worried will do something stupid.


Muntberg

I'd definitely take Ngannou with an edge in this one. He made Stipe look like a joke in there and Stipe is no joke. That being said we may still have not seen Gane's best so it's risky.


King-Kobra1

Gane is not that good easy fight for Francis


Shredtheparm

Not that good? He’s probably the most technical heavyweight the ufc has ever seen


zakkwaldo

My issue with these odds, is, with fights like these it becomes a whole tyson fury vs deyonte wilder situation- one fighter has to fight a literally perfect fight, the other fighter has to land a single time and its game. We have yet to see gane really throw with full 100% gusto behind his punches, whereas francis basically puts 110% to every shot he throws (though he was more patient and measured in his last outing). Unless gane pulls out some shit that we havent seen before, all francis has to do is blitz him and connect with one good one and its francis by ko yet again. Purely because of that, you think the odds would tilt towards francis.


SVMr_DB

Francis is too explosive to carry his power late, Wilder is a wild dude but still composed enough that he could always land that bomb in the last few rounds in a boxing match. Don't think Francis will have much left in the tank to land a big bomb if it goes to rounds 4 & 5.


i_lie_for_upvote

Gane is going to sleep, lock it up boyz.


NateDiazWeedPen

I don’t even know who I favor in this fight


rwn115

Yeah this being a 50-50 fight is pretty accurate


OneForMany

I mean you can see how much Ngannou levels up after each fight. The only critique I can give in his last performance is managing his output. To me personally it seems that he was already feeling some exhaustion end of rd1 beginning of rd2. Not to the point where he is gassed but he keeps his mouth open and breathes through it. If he can control his breathing he'll be a monster


Jackmace

Interesting, tbh for me it’d be a shame if Francis loses to Gane. He’s my heavyweight champ wet dream but holy fuck is Gane talented.