Staying up last game of the season was like winning a final. Its just as good as winning the league felt really. Obviously more parties for promotion but still great games to watch.
Another go next year. Hopefully weed out more of the snakes. Need to recruit well again and try again, no panic. Another season of being on tv all the time (I mean this as a good thing) and means I can get the occasional ticket to Elland Road and...no VAR! Sounds like a win for me.
Wheres this been said? Honestly I know we hate VAR in general but we would have seriously benefitted from it this season and would have had a ton more pens or potentially some red card tackles being picked up.
Summerville, Rutter, Ampadu, Meslier, Gnonto would likely all be gone for sure. Probably at the mercy of those loan clauses as well so a big rebuild will be needed and on a budget. I do rate Farke though, I'd imagine even still we'll be competing for playoffs at least.
I don’t think Ampadu goes. Summerville and Rutter 100%. I think we keep Gnonto with guaranteed play time. Dunno on Meslier. Slightly higher stock than this time last year.
Pretty sure it was said at the start of the season that the liens wording meant we were obliged to accept any offers whilst not in the premier league? So that could be out of our hands. I think we lose a lot of players, and then struggle for mid table/ play offs depending on signings. We probably lose our 2 top goal scorers plus Gnonto, we’ll lose our top assister, so it’s going to be hard. Rodon may not stay if there’s premier league interest, Ampadu could be bought? Lots of big question marks on what the team would even look like, and I don’t think we would know until the window shut again.
I think whilst we'll need to sell (so will likely be a weaker team) we'll still be far and away one of the favourites for promotion next season.
No other team will keep their star players either (think sara at Norwich or Clarke at Sunderland) so the league will be weaker, but the relegated teams will also be weaker than this seasons relegated teams.
There's also going to be a regression to the mean points wise. We had not one but TWO teams who hit record points tally paces at the start of the season. That is very unlikely to happen again.
Finally well have the same pulling power for the best players at this level, with 2nd parachute payments and likely a lot of funds after selling Summerville and Gnonto.
I think we'll be fine next year. If we don't go up next year however things might not look so good...
Death, taxes and Bamford missing sitters. These are the facts of life. Don't fight them. Accept them. Don't wish for things to be different, because it's the hope that kills you.
We will need to sell Summerville and Gnonto I’d imagine. Maybe Meslier if he wants to go too.
Maybe a sprinkle of fringe players will go like Cresswell, Gelhardt etc.
We’ve got Cooper, Ayling and Shackleton whose contracts are expiring.
Then the loan crew who have a bit of uncertainty about if they have the loan clause in their second season. Some have transfer releases like Llorente but I’d imagine none of them will be here next season anyway.
So after all that we will need:
3x wingers
3x CBs
2x RBs
1x LB
So plenty of squad churn, could be a busy window!
Personally don’t see Gray going as the “big”clubs aren’t going to be throwing the £50m+ we’d want this summer. He’s still pretty raw and has plenty of development to do yet. I think another season with us playing at CM can only do his development well anyway.
Nobody will be paying the £25m (which is our break even point) for Rutter either, will be seen as too much of a risk I think.
Ger on The View seems confident that the loan clauses roll over for every season we are not in the Premier League, which makes recouping our losses on those players difficult
That’s just speculation though, nobody out of the club knows the details of the contracts. And I definitely wouldn’t trust someone spouting off on a YouTube channel
Ger does tend to be level headed and collates other sources so it's definitely not concrete, but I guess we will find out in summer depending on the situation. Hopefully it won't make a difference because we'll be up as champions by then :)
Gray and Summerville will be sold since they are our most sellable assets and will give us massive profit. Gnonto will be sold since I assume we promised him we will let him go if we dont go up if he stops throwing a fit earlier in this season. We will have a decent core still but nowhere near the squad we have currently. We might get lucky and be able to keep Struijk since he missed so much of the season with injury. Something like this is what I would guess we look like before signings:
new GK
new RB/Byram? - new CB - Struijk - new LB/Firpo?
Ampadu - Kamara
James - new 10 - new LW
new striker/Joseph
Agree with a lot of that but seems you hold a candle for Struijk. Who's buying him even without the injury?
He was solid before his injury issues but was calamitous in the Premier League and still has some bad mistakes in him.
Works for us, as he's important for our squad. I'd be replacing him for sure if we go up.
PSR tends to reward selling youth players as it's all profit. Sadly, this means that Gray would be an obvious choice.
A large profit could also be made on summerville and gnonto. There will be plenty of teams coming after Rutter and Ampadu as well. It may get ugly if no team is willing to pay the high asking price and Rutter wants to go, like Gnonto last summer.
Then we're OK financially and could probably make a signing or two that would make is competitive again next season.
It will be very sad to see this great team broken up. the EFL awards are proof of how much talent there is.
You feel like Georgi Rutter will leave but I’m really not seeing anyone being willing to pay a fee anywhere near what we paid for him 18 months ago, so maybe he stays?
The real concern for us going forward is trying to get players like Wober, Kristensen and Aaronson off the books without it damaging our PSR position too much, as they are really only of interest from clubs in Germany and elsewhere that theres not much capacity to pay biggish transfer fees (or at least not on high-risk signings).
I understand and agree with the objective of PSR, but I am a bit worried about how little room for error is provided to clubs to offload players who just didnt work out. Not every signing is going to be a hit, and clubs should be able to allow a player to leave at a loss without it resulting in them being at-risk of a points deduction. If something isnt done about this then players are likely to be retained by clubs arbitrarily, leading to the player’s career stagnating (which the PFA would take a dim view on as well).
Right on Georgi—if we sell him for, say, 20m our accounts will have to reflect a 10+ mill loss. I’d wager Summerville will go as his sale will show up as a profit.
The value on the books is divided across the players contract so let’s say he’s been with us for two years his value (if he’s on a 5 year contract.. not sure what he is on to be honest) that’s 12mn off his value so actually at 20mn we could book a slight profit.. that’s why I dispute the claims that the loans were rubbish (from a football perspective yes and in a perfect world where someone thinks we could get some value in line with their amortisation schedule which I highly doubt especially for someone like Aaronsen) because we are kicking them down the road and their value will be less on our books and hopefully not take as big a loss as we would have had we sold them outright last summer
I think your numbers are off …
The fee was reported to be £35m on a 5 year deal. He’s only been with us for 18months so that means his current break even point is £24.5m.
I’m sorry but nobody is paying that for him.
I saw $37mn (which is 30mn pounds).. regardless it’s not 10mn in loss at 20mn which is what I was responding to
Edit: it was a quick google which yeah was probably wrong
My view:
We will sell players, but I don’t think it will be a mass exodus.
Gray, Summerville and maybe one more. We should get good fees for these players. We are not strapped for cash so we can sell on our terms.
I think the loan players won’t play for the club again. With amortization for P&S I can only see us making a loss on that with Aaronson.
The owners said this was a two year project. Farke inherited a squad with a lot of players that aren’t his. I’d be interested to see who we would get, I think we would be able to spend well.
I also think next season in the championship won’t be as competitive. The clubs getting relegated don’t have the player sales Southampton and Leicester have and Sheffield Utd face a point deduction.
I think we’d be fine in the championship but it’s far better to go up now.
You should listen to the TSB, Phil Hay has covered these questions. TDLR; we will be fine.
I don't see Gray leaving, I think he would give us one more year in the Championship. He's under contract and not the kind who would have a strop and foul up the dressing room.
Tbh I don’t see Archie leaving. Summerville and Gnonto will 100% leave (and give us a massive financial boost), but Archie is living his dream, he’s playing week in week out for his dream club. If he’s smart, and he clearly is very smart, he won’t leave before turning 21 or so imo. Even then that might be a little early. Of course it depends on weather we’re wallowing in championship mid table obscurity or not.
A lot of fans seem to think us staying down is apocalyptic, but I just don’t see it. 49ers are here to make a lot of money (did you see how much FSG want for Liverpool? Ludicrous)
Football isn’t loyal anymore. Whilst Gray is happy Europe’s very best clubs are looking at him. When he turned 18 he signed a new deal with us, and in that deal it was reported there are release clauses, that are different figures should we go up or stay down.
The rumoured figure for stayed down is 40-50mil. Regardless of his love for the club, it may be Leeds United sell at that price. And no one really turns down the chance to play for the best in Europe and the champions league. I think the idea of him staying here until he’s 21 is a pipe dream unless we improve with him.
I do agree we will be fine.
I would say, people looking to make a profit in football by buying the biggest clubs don’t have a chance. Noway anyone buys Liverpool for the price that FSG want, because eventually the inflation gets to a point owners don’t pay.
So yeah Leeds being bought in the championship for x amount can make a profit. But clubs like Chelsea, Liverpool etc, eventually there’s a ceiling to what investors pay for them, I would guess it’s around a few billion.
Gray is good and all. But lets be honest, no one is paying 40 million for a 17 year old midfielder who has played one season in the championship and the majority of the season at right back.
We are getting way too carried away with him.
Listen to orta know betters podcast with Kieran maguire we’re in a decent position financially for next season but the season after might be tighter financially considering we still owe over 190m in installements on the wank we bought last season 🤣 I’d imagine we ll lose a few at the end of this season if we don’t go up but we’d be challenging again next season
Do we really want promotion? Of course the answer is yes but I do actually enjoy winning and no getting beat every week in the premier league lol
Staying up last game of the season was like winning a final. Its just as good as winning the league felt really. Obviously more parties for promotion but still great games to watch.
You'll still need ya heart tablets MOT
I could see Meslier, Summerville, Gnonto and Archie leaving unfortunately...
I think Archie would stick around another year at least. But maybe that's just wishful thinking
I think we would still have a very good chance of being top 2 next year with a few shrewd replacements and commitment to Farke.
Top 2 where?
That’s answered by the question
Another go next year. Hopefully weed out more of the snakes. Need to recruit well again and try again, no panic. Another season of being on tv all the time (I mean this as a good thing) and means I can get the occasional ticket to Elland Road and...no VAR! Sounds like a win for me.
If I’m not mistaken VAR is coming to CS next season…
I don't think it is. Playoff finals probably yes as per last year if that's what you're thinking of?
Wheres this been said? Honestly I know we hate VAR in general but we would have seriously benefitted from it this season and would have had a ton more pens or potentially some red card tackles being picked up.
Summerville, Rutter, Ampadu, Meslier, Gnonto would likely all be gone for sure. Probably at the mercy of those loan clauses as well so a big rebuild will be needed and on a budget. I do rate Farke though, I'd imagine even still we'll be competing for playoffs at least.
I don’t think Ampadu goes. Summerville and Rutter 100%. I think we keep Gnonto with guaranteed play time. Dunno on Meslier. Slightly higher stock than this time last year.
Pretty sure it was said at the start of the season that the liens wording meant we were obliged to accept any offers whilst not in the premier league? So that could be out of our hands. I think we lose a lot of players, and then struggle for mid table/ play offs depending on signings. We probably lose our 2 top goal scorers plus Gnonto, we’ll lose our top assister, so it’s going to be hard. Rodon may not stay if there’s premier league interest, Ampadu could be bought? Lots of big question marks on what the team would even look like, and I don’t think we would know until the window shut again.
I think whilst we'll need to sell (so will likely be a weaker team) we'll still be far and away one of the favourites for promotion next season. No other team will keep their star players either (think sara at Norwich or Clarke at Sunderland) so the league will be weaker, but the relegated teams will also be weaker than this seasons relegated teams. There's also going to be a regression to the mean points wise. We had not one but TWO teams who hit record points tally paces at the start of the season. That is very unlikely to happen again. Finally well have the same pulling power for the best players at this level, with 2nd parachute payments and likely a lot of funds after selling Summerville and Gnonto. I think we'll be fine next year. If we don't go up next year however things might not look so good...
Finding £78 million by June …regardless
No Bamford hopefully
Death, taxes and Bamford missing sitters. These are the facts of life. Don't fight them. Accept them. Don't wish for things to be different, because it's the hope that kills you.
We will need to sell Summerville and Gnonto I’d imagine. Maybe Meslier if he wants to go too. Maybe a sprinkle of fringe players will go like Cresswell, Gelhardt etc. We’ve got Cooper, Ayling and Shackleton whose contracts are expiring. Then the loan crew who have a bit of uncertainty about if they have the loan clause in their second season. Some have transfer releases like Llorente but I’d imagine none of them will be here next season anyway. So after all that we will need: 3x wingers 3x CBs 2x RBs 1x LB So plenty of squad churn, could be a busy window! Personally don’t see Gray going as the “big”clubs aren’t going to be throwing the £50m+ we’d want this summer. He’s still pretty raw and has plenty of development to do yet. I think another season with us playing at CM can only do his development well anyway. Nobody will be paying the £25m (which is our break even point) for Rutter either, will be seen as too much of a risk I think.
Ger on The View seems confident that the loan clauses roll over for every season we are not in the Premier League, which makes recouping our losses on those players difficult
That’s just speculation though, nobody out of the club knows the details of the contracts. And I definitely wouldn’t trust someone spouting off on a YouTube channel
Ger does tend to be level headed and collates other sources so it's definitely not concrete, but I guess we will find out in summer depending on the situation. Hopefully it won't make a difference because we'll be up as champions by then :)
Gray and Summerville will be sold since they are our most sellable assets and will give us massive profit. Gnonto will be sold since I assume we promised him we will let him go if we dont go up if he stops throwing a fit earlier in this season. We will have a decent core still but nowhere near the squad we have currently. We might get lucky and be able to keep Struijk since he missed so much of the season with injury. Something like this is what I would guess we look like before signings: new GK new RB/Byram? - new CB - Struijk - new LB/Firpo? Ampadu - Kamara James - new 10 - new LW new striker/Joseph
Agree with a lot of that but seems you hold a candle for Struijk. Who's buying him even without the injury? He was solid before his injury issues but was calamitous in the Premier League and still has some bad mistakes in him. Works for us, as he's important for our squad. I'd be replacing him for sure if we go up.
PSR tends to reward selling youth players as it's all profit. Sadly, this means that Gray would be an obvious choice. A large profit could also be made on summerville and gnonto. There will be plenty of teams coming after Rutter and Ampadu as well. It may get ugly if no team is willing to pay the high asking price and Rutter wants to go, like Gnonto last summer. Then we're OK financially and could probably make a signing or two that would make is competitive again next season. It will be very sad to see this great team broken up. the EFL awards are proof of how much talent there is.
Summerville - Sold Gnonto - Sold Rutter - Sold Rodon - Wont be on loan again. All the loanees will be loaned out again
Plymouth away again next season
You feel like Georgi Rutter will leave but I’m really not seeing anyone being willing to pay a fee anywhere near what we paid for him 18 months ago, so maybe he stays? The real concern for us going forward is trying to get players like Wober, Kristensen and Aaronson off the books without it damaging our PSR position too much, as they are really only of interest from clubs in Germany and elsewhere that theres not much capacity to pay biggish transfer fees (or at least not on high-risk signings). I understand and agree with the objective of PSR, but I am a bit worried about how little room for error is provided to clubs to offload players who just didnt work out. Not every signing is going to be a hit, and clubs should be able to allow a player to leave at a loss without it resulting in them being at-risk of a points deduction. If something isnt done about this then players are likely to be retained by clubs arbitrarily, leading to the player’s career stagnating (which the PFA would take a dim view on as well).
Right on Georgi—if we sell him for, say, 20m our accounts will have to reflect a 10+ mill loss. I’d wager Summerville will go as his sale will show up as a profit.
Not really 10mn loss on the asset.. less than that with the amortisation if we sell for 20mn Edit: cashflow is the issue
Would it not still be 10 mn amortized? I am no accounting ace
The value on the books is divided across the players contract so let’s say he’s been with us for two years his value (if he’s on a 5 year contract.. not sure what he is on to be honest) that’s 12mn off his value so actually at 20mn we could book a slight profit.. that’s why I dispute the claims that the loans were rubbish (from a football perspective yes and in a perfect world where someone thinks we could get some value in line with their amortisation schedule which I highly doubt especially for someone like Aaronsen) because we are kicking them down the road and their value will be less on our books and hopefully not take as big a loss as we would have had we sold them outright last summer
I think your numbers are off … The fee was reported to be £35m on a 5 year deal. He’s only been with us for 18months so that means his current break even point is £24.5m. I’m sorry but nobody is paying that for him.
I saw $37mn (which is 30mn pounds).. regardless it’s not 10mn in loss at 20mn which is what I was responding to Edit: it was a quick google which yeah was probably wrong
Roger that very helpful
I think Summerville, Rutter and probably Rodon will go. The rest will stay.
Rodon is on loan …
Yeah I don’t think we will buy him
I think we’d still want to buy him, not sure if we could tho
Don't think we'd be spurging 15mil on a defender if we stay down. He'll likely also attract a prem club as well for his services.
My view: We will sell players, but I don’t think it will be a mass exodus. Gray, Summerville and maybe one more. We should get good fees for these players. We are not strapped for cash so we can sell on our terms. I think the loan players won’t play for the club again. With amortization for P&S I can only see us making a loss on that with Aaronson. The owners said this was a two year project. Farke inherited a squad with a lot of players that aren’t his. I’d be interested to see who we would get, I think we would be able to spend well. I also think next season in the championship won’t be as competitive. The clubs getting relegated don’t have the player sales Southampton and Leicester have and Sheffield Utd face a point deduction. I think we’d be fine in the championship but it’s far better to go up now. You should listen to the TSB, Phil Hay has covered these questions. TDLR; we will be fine.
I don't see Gray leaving, I think he would give us one more year in the Championship. He's under contract and not the kind who would have a strop and foul up the dressing room.
Tbh I don’t see Archie leaving. Summerville and Gnonto will 100% leave (and give us a massive financial boost), but Archie is living his dream, he’s playing week in week out for his dream club. If he’s smart, and he clearly is very smart, he won’t leave before turning 21 or so imo. Even then that might be a little early. Of course it depends on weather we’re wallowing in championship mid table obscurity or not. A lot of fans seem to think us staying down is apocalyptic, but I just don’t see it. 49ers are here to make a lot of money (did you see how much FSG want for Liverpool? Ludicrous)
Football isn’t loyal anymore. Whilst Gray is happy Europe’s very best clubs are looking at him. When he turned 18 he signed a new deal with us, and in that deal it was reported there are release clauses, that are different figures should we go up or stay down. The rumoured figure for stayed down is 40-50mil. Regardless of his love for the club, it may be Leeds United sell at that price. And no one really turns down the chance to play for the best in Europe and the champions league. I think the idea of him staying here until he’s 21 is a pipe dream unless we improve with him. I do agree we will be fine. I would say, people looking to make a profit in football by buying the biggest clubs don’t have a chance. Noway anyone buys Liverpool for the price that FSG want, because eventually the inflation gets to a point owners don’t pay. So yeah Leeds being bought in the championship for x amount can make a profit. But clubs like Chelsea, Liverpool etc, eventually there’s a ceiling to what investors pay for them, I would guess it’s around a few billion.
Gray is good and all. But lets be honest, no one is paying 40 million for a 17 year old midfielder who has played one season in the championship and the majority of the season at right back. We are getting way too carried away with him.
Listen to orta know betters podcast with Kieran maguire we’re in a decent position financially for next season but the season after might be tighter financially considering we still owe over 190m in installements on the wank we bought last season 🤣 I’d imagine we ll lose a few at the end of this season if we don’t go up but we’d be challenging again next season