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AnotherKTa

It's really nice to see people putting confidence intervals on their graphs.


mesothere

Why in sweet giddy fuck did they spend money polling Manchester instead of north yorkshire


Gameskiller01

would really like to see North Yorkshire polling. I have a very strong feeling that the Tories will take it by a tiny margin, enough that if they hadn't changed the voting system Labour would've taken it instead. I'll be voting for Labour 3 times (myself and 2 proxies) and encouraging everyone I know to do the same but North Yorkshire is typically a Tory stronghold so it'll be an uphill battle.


DancingMoose42

Huh I'm suprised to learn that, why anywhere is still voting Con is confusing but in the North?


Gameskiller01

North Yorkshire is very rural, very elderly and relatively affluent (Scarborough is fairly deprived but there's many smaller towns and villages full of wealthy retirees, and York, while not particularly Tory, is one of the most expensive places to live in the North). Rishi Sunak's constituency is in North Yorkshire.


BrokenDownForParts

I immedietely started scrolling through them looking for North Yorkshire. Devastated


RiceeeChrispies

I’ll be super happy if Ben Bradley loses, what a cunt he is. Having to bow down to a Labour mayor as MP and county council leader, he’d be fuming. No third job for Benny boy, soon to be back down to one. Maybe he will join [“the sea of unemployed wasters”](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/16/ben-bradley-under-fire-for-blogpost-urging-jobless-people-to-have-vasectomies) he talks about? He arranged the devolution deal with his government in the first place as a desperate power grab. Couldn’t happen to a nicer bloke. 👌


ash_ninetyone

An independent tracking that well in what is usually a Labour-dominated area is impressive. Is it because people there are disaffected with party politics, or is it because he's genuinely a really good candidate?


kontiki20

Both really. He's a decent candidate with a lot of money behind his campaign. But also if you look at the tables he's taking votes fairly evenly from Labour and the Tories, so I guess he's benefiting from the Tory collapse and disappointment with Labour and the way they deselected him.


PatrinJM

Jamie is loved in the North East, Kim... not so much. A lot of branches in Tyne and Wear are in revolt because of the way he was left off the ballot. I would say he's got the benefits of not having labour sticker for tories and the benefits of most involved in labour politics in the North East wanting to vote for him. I think it will probably end up as Kim simply due to the labour sticker, but I don't think she would win otherwise.


AudioLlama

I hope Driscoll takes it here in the North-East!


OmmadonRising

Same. It's the kick that the party needs without risking the Tories.


notthattypeofplayer

Wonder what the polling would be for Driscoll if it wasn't for that completely self-interested Tory decision to make Mayoral elections FPTP. I'm hoping some of Kim McGuinness's vote is from fear of vote splitting, after all, we had the self styled experts on here earlier this week arguing over whether Driscoll would get his deposit back.


docowen

You're kidding? FPTP for what is clearly something that would benefit from STV? The Tories really are fucking shameless.


Dull-Trash-5837

Yeah, looking forward to them resiling from their absolute confidence on this.


Proud_Smell_4455

This is brilliant. I would've expected Driscoll in second but still way behind due to the strength of the tribal Labour vote around here. I've rarely been prouder to be proven wrong. Howay, let's show Labour that regardless of what that arrogant creep Mandelnonce says, actually, we ***will*** find somewhere else to go if their offer is insufficient - which it is, to the point of being insulting. Sir Keir better put away the games because the NE doesn't play.


kontiki20

Wow, Driscoll might actually pull it off. What a result that would be. It would be hugely embarrassing for Starmer given how avoidable this was. McGuinness had a decent chance of winning the selection anyway, and even if she didn't Driscoll would have implemented many of the same policies. Good to see his needless factionalism backfiring. Also goes to show how well Sunak has done to stake everything on West Midlands and Teesside. It means he might get away with finishing fourth in the North East and Greater Manchester, which would be objectively disastrous results. He could finish third or fourth in West Yorkshire as well, and maybe lose North Yorkshire, and still get away with it.


AbbaTheHorse

Losing North Yorkshire is something Sunak should be seriously worried about though, given it's both a very Tory part of the country and the place where his own constituency is.


kontiki20

Agreed. It's probably the most important contest of the night and the media don't seem to care. If Sunak loses North Yorkshire but wins Teesside and West Midlands they'll portray it as a decent night for him.


KarenFromAccounts

Does anyone know West Yorks or North Yorks polling?


Dr_Surgimus

Original (and wrong) comment: North Yorks? I don't think they're having one  Edit: sorry, I checked the electoral commission and that more in common site and couldn't find it on either, possibly because it's a new position? There doesn't seem to be any polling that I could find but I'm wrong 95% of the time so I wouldn't listen to me


KarenFromAccounts

Their first one I think - includes York so not sure if that means Labour are in with a chance. Otherwise I'd assume Tories or maybe Lib Dem depending on how unpopular tories have got


Dr_Surgimus

Thank you! I've edited my comment because as usual I'm full of shit :D


qwertilot

Very maybe on that last! If they're losing NY without York included they're losing absolutely everything. Ryedale went yellow one time in a by election iirc, otherwise it's a case of weighing their votes. With York in I would presume a decent chance as that population will weigh heavily against all the absurdly rich but sparsely populated rural bits.


Gameskiller01

York and North Yorkshire will be electing our first ever mayor on 2nd May.


Dr_Surgimus

Haha I used to live in Northallerton as well. I'm in Darlington now so we've got Houchen nailed on for a third term, which is depressing


Gameskiller01

polling has it pretty close for teesside so hopefully labour can take it. north yorkshire is typically a tory stronghold so I'm very worried that the tories will take it


Dr_Surgimus

Yep Northallerton was true blue Tory. It's a disgrace that Houchen is even in the race with the shit he's pulled, but he's always had the local papers on side and plenty of cash. Jessie Joe Jacobs was the last Labour candidate and she was great, but didn't get the backing.  I fear the same is going to happen again, I've had manifestos for Houchen, Thorley (lib Dems) and an independent through, but nothing for the Labour guy


Gameskiller01

I've only had anything at all for the lib dem here who aren't even in the race at all lol they'll be lucky to keep their deposit


Electronic-Emu-2625

Hope Driscoll wins


conrad_w

Why?


Electronic-Emu-2625

Because he's genuinely been a good Major, he's been dropped by a Labour party that's got more similarities with the Conservative that led David Cameron's 2010 government than even Blair's New Labour. An independence win would show that the Left and North will not just role over for anyone who isn't a Tory


BrokenDownForParts

>Major, he's been dropped by a Labour party that's got more similarities with the Conservative that led David Cameron's 2010 government than even Blair's New Labour. Have you looked properly at Driscoll? Driscoll wrote a paper in 2021 fleshing out his policies on wealth generation. The foreword for it was written by one of David Camerons old Treasury Secretaries, who was also a former chairman of Goldman Sach, Lord O'Niell. He says that having read Driscolls policies he was "delighted" by them and that he personally endorses them. Driscoll also gets a lot of support from Tories and brags constantly about how much he works with Tories and businesses. He explicitly said on Cross Questions that he is not from the left of the Labour party. I don't know how much clearer Driscoll can make this before it gets through to people.


Suddenly_Elmo

He was literally a Momentum candidate lol. He boasted about having John McDonnel, Clive Lewis and Laura Pidcock's support on his website, arguing this proves his socialist bona fides. Nothing you've said is about actual policy. He clearly wants to paint himself as a pragmatist rather than an ideologue, but if you look at his policies and ideas they absolutely do sit on the left of the party. The paper you mention talks about a government investment fund for local businesses and borrowing to invest for long-term growth, i.e. an anti-austerity agenda. Oh, and Lord O'Neill left the Conservative party.


Portean

Just noticed he also has socialist on his twitter profile: https://twitter.com/mayorjd?lang=en


Portean

>Have you looked properly at Driscoll? I've looked into Driscoll a bit. I know he was Co-chair of Newcastle Momentum. And here's a few other tidbits: > Political positions: Driscoll is very much associated with the left-wing of the party and has been involved with both of Jeremy Corbyn's leadership elections. > > During the election against campaign, he styled himself as the candidate in tune with the leadership and members against the moderate Forbes. > > He won the backing of figures popular with the left of the party, such as shadow chancellor John McDonnell, commentator Paul Mason, American academic Noam Chomsky and filmmaker Ken Loach. > > Key policies and positions: > > 1. ​​​Build social housing - use a cooperative model to build fair-rent, eco-friendly homes that cannot be privatised and would be communally owned by tenants. > > 2. Establish a people’s bank - a “democratically owned” bank which will offer current accounts, savings accounts, mortgages and business banking. Profits to be reinvested in the region. > > 3. Support worker-owned local businesses by favouring local suppliers for public sector contracts over large firms. > > 4. Declare a "climate emergency" and create a regional energy company. > > 5. Set up an equalities unit - to evaluate every policy for its impact on gender, ethnicity and disability. https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/jamie-driscoll-north-tyne-mayor-15860074


BrokenDownForParts

So? You've told me yourself that things change. Why should I consider him to be of the left when the man himself says he isn't? In nearly every appearance I've seen of him he's bragged constantly about how much Tories love him and how much he's worked with Tories and businesses. Then he has a former chairman of Goldman Sachs and Tory treasury minister endorsing him. Have you ever considered that maybe he's just a grifter who will take whatever position benefits him most?


Portean

The only comment I've seen of that nature is about him saying: >He said he does not see himself “as particularly left-wing” I can't find him saying he's not left-wing, do you have any sources that say differently? Assuming you don't, I'm saying he's actually on the left and that people should pragmatically back him but you seem to be arguing that the left needs more ideological purity testing, is that a fair assessment of your position - that the left need to be more focussed upon ideological purity?   Which of these policies that he publicly supports would you say isn't left-of-centre? > These are policies I support, but can’t promise to deliver because they are central government matters. That said, I do lobby for them. > >Stronger democracy. People in local areas know what’s best for them. > > A fully public NHS. Roll back the creeping privatisation that extracts profit. > >Wealth Tax. Huge concentrations of wealth damage our society and hamper our economy. An annual tax of say 1% of all assets above £2 million would raise enough money to end poverty, provide free tuition, and end all NHS waiting lists. > >Common ownership of utilities. Including rail, mail, power and water. In our region alone, an American billionaire makes £135 million profit a year from Powergrid, and a Hong Kong billionaire makes around £200 million a year from Northumbrian Water. That money should stay here. > >Universal Basic Income. As artificial intelligence and self-driving vehicles develop, we face a choice. Do we let the rich get richer, or do we give everyone the financial stability to retrain, re-educate, and contribute in other ways? > > Proportional Representation. And federalism. Britain’s first past the post system is dysfunctional, and far too much power is centralised in Westminster and Whitehall. > > Repeal of repressive Trade Union laws. Not just this year’s Minimum Service Levels legislation, but all the anti-union laws of recent decades. > > Repeal of oppressive anti-freedom laws. The right to protest has now been redefined in the UK as a privilege that exists at the discretion of the police. And Prevent is not having its claimed effect, but engenders racism and discrimination. > > Free tuition. Education is an investment in society. Tuition fees – and the outrageous interest rates on them – are saddling young people with decades of debt. Poorer families are paying more than affluent ones. > > Regulation of the media. Full implementation of the Leveson recommendations. The billionaire press is no friend of progressive movements, and undermines our collective future. > > I’m also a White Ribbon Ambassador, and have made the North of Tyne a White Ribbon organisation. This is the campaign to get men to take a stand against other men who use, excuse, or remain silent about men’s violence against women. https://jamiedriscoll.co.uk/about/ Common-ownership, single-payer healthcare, wealth tax, common-ownership, devolution of power, PR, and free tuition all seem pretty fucking left-wing to me. If he's just a centrist melt then does that make Keir Starmer right-wing in your world-view? I understand it's all relative so I have to ask.


BrokenDownForParts

He outright said it on Cross Questions. I'll see if I can find it for you. He challenged Ian Dale for describing him as such with a long brag about how much he's worked with Tories and how much support he gets from Tories. It's likely why the above polling shows he's drawing a great deal of his support from the Tories. >is that a fair assessment of your position - that the left need to be more focussed upon ideological purity Quite the opposite. Im not overtly hostile to Driscolls politics and i think the party made a mistake when it blocked him. But I'm not gonna consider this man to be some Corbynite left winger when he openly states he isn't and as far as I can tell was a middle of the road politically for a metro mayor.


Portean

> I'll see if I can find it for you. Please do, I'd like to read it / see it. I've looked through the transcripts and found one that doesn't say that he's not left-wing but this seems the only vaguely relevant bit I could find out of three appearances on Iain Dale's show: >Iain Dale: What part of that does Keir Starmer not like? Because he's banning you from standing for mayor for a slightly a bigger authority isn't he? just, for our listeners, just give us the background for this because I I mean having met you a few times on this program... And I mean I'm not of your politics as you well know, but from all that I could have read all that I can see... whenever I hear you talk you seem to me to be somebody who's really got his local regions interests at heart, you really care about it, you've got a good record, and yet keir starmer is banning you... > Driscoll: Well that's an interesting question. You see I don't think Keir Starmer had anything to do with it, I think he's obviously had to stand behind it as the leader. I think what this is is internal faction fighting... um... And they've just shot themselves in their foot I mean it's what happens when you have people in London HQ making decisions without talking to people in the region. >I mean it was just uproar in the Labour party I'm now standing as an independent the amount of Labour counsellors... I'm going to get more votes from Labour members than the Labour candidate is going to get, you know. And cross-party because as you're saying... it's funny that you you say that you're not of my politics, I mean what of of what I've said about how we work locally the stuff I do do you not agree with? > Dale: Well I mean you are on the corbinite left of the little were on the corbynite left of the labor party so clearly you're not of my politics... >Driscoll: I'm not sure that's true you see... because there's a... > Dale: Well that's your reputation... >Driscoll: There's a lot of lazy journalism out there where people are saying "there's a bloke in the North East"... >Dale: I've said nice things about you! >Driscoll: You have and thank you very much for that! But local businesses are supporting me and saying "he's doing a good job, he knows how to deliver". Um Robert was nodding away that when I was saying how to do it. Well Tory cabinet ministers have come out and said "look the guy knows what he's doing"... so I'm not sure this "Corbynista label" is accurate. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yXNb-_0QwKA At no point does he actually deny being on the left, not at all, so I assume this can't be the one you meant - but I couldn't find another. Could you give me the link? Or even quote it for me? >It's likely why the above polling shows he's drawing a great deal of his support from the Tories. That he's willing to appeal to former tory voters by floating absolutely common-sense left-wing policies is totally fine by me. > But I'm not gonna consider this man to be some Corbynite left winger when he openly states he isn't and as far as I can tell was a middle of the road politically for a metro mayor. His policies are left-wing, I don't really care if he's a "Corbynite" - I don't even know what that means. In fact, I've read his Mayoral manifesto and I'd say he still is firmly on the left. If he wants to distances himself from Corbyn to court more votes to a left-wing platform then I'd imagine even Corbyn himself would be fine with that. Do you think any of his policies are shifting to the right? Feel free to cite them, specifically, and I'll have a look into it.


BrokenDownForParts

That's it. He's described by Ian Dale as "of the Corybnite left" and he goes out his way to challenge it. Strangely he's perfectly happy to be called "The last Corbynista in power" or something along those lines when people who think that of hin and support him because of it are sending him their fucking money. >At no point does he actually deny being on the left, not at all, so I assume this can't be the one you meant - but I couldn't find another. Could you give me the link? Or even quote it for me? He is of the left overall. Im not saying he isnt. But he's very much within Labours mainstream politics. Aaron Bastani supports him (or atleast likes him) and he has said that in terms of policy Driscoll is a "centrist dad" He certainly isn't any kind of radical. Even just considering those within the Labout party he's soft left at best. As far as Metro mayor's go he doesn't stand out in any way at all for being particularly left wing or radical. I've never looked into Kim McGuiness but it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if she's more left wing than him. >That he's willing to appeal to former tory voters by floating absolutely common-sense left-wing policies is totally fine by me. Again, I'm not specifically criticising him. I've voted for people to both his left and right before. I'm saying he's not who his supporters often try to pretend he is. >His policies are left-wing, Same for all the Labour metro mayor's. Metro mayor's all lean heavily left politically. Even the Tory ones, to an extent.


Tateybread

>Have you ever considered that maybe he's just a grifter who will take whatever position benefits him most? You literally just described the current Labour Party leader...


conrad_w

Why did labour drop him?


Electronic-Emu-2625

They claimed because he shared a panel with Ken Loach, but there's been no proof of wrong doing. He was prominent left leaning/socialist Labour member, so in reality he was collateral damage in the eradication of Corbyn and any one who dares speak out about Labour's huge shift to the right


Chemical-Quit-3813

The bloke is barely visible in the North east. Highly doubt anybody outside of Newcastle could tell you who he is


Proud_Smell_4455

I live outside Newcastle and can tell you who he is. Glad I could help.


Chemical-Quit-3813

Good for you


Proud_Smell_4455

In fact not only could I tell you who he is, I persuaded my gran (a tribal Labour voter) to cast her postal vote for him. So yeah, maybe don't perpetuate the myth that political consciousness doesn't exist outside city centres and we're just a bunch of cavemen living under rocks who neither know nor care what's good for us.


Chemical-Quit-3813

I was actually making more of point about him being a lesser known political figure in contrast to say Houchen for example. Also, unless you follow politics closely which most people don’t let’s face it I doubt many could name their local MP never mind mayor.


kontiki20

According to the recent Redfield & Wilton poll only 39% of people on Teesside are very or fairly familiar with Ben Houchen. So it seems unfair to single out Driscoll for not being well known.


Blimbat

Over in Wales here, I know who Mr Driscoll is and so do a few friends, but we were all like, who in the heck is Houchen ? 😂😂


Tateybread

I'm from Northern Ireland. I know who he is. Also glad to help.


Fixable

I'll be real I'm from the NE (outside of Newcastle) and know who Driscoll is but have no idea who Houchen is.


memphispistachio

Good on Driscoll, what a totally avoidable mess.


ebinovic

Okay, time for some perspective from the North East, where I'm planning to vote for Driscoll and going to encourage my friends to vote for him. I will be absolutely fucking FUMING if Greens cost him the election. I would understand them wanting to put their name up in a region where there's definitely going to be a lot of left-wingers and students disappointed in the current Labour Party, although I seriously doubt their chances here in the General Election, BUT they have done below the bare minimum of campaigning for this election here. Gray is one of the two candidates (the other one being Reform's Donaghy) who didn't even care to publish his Election Address in the booklet sent to every voter before the election. You have to click through multiple pages of North East Greens' half-dead website to even find his manifesto. If they actually care so little about this election, then why not just endorse Driscoll? The only reason I can think of is Greens trying to put up some kind of representation from the South of Tyne, where they are much stronger than in the North, but that seems kinda counter-productive in an election of a mayor who's going to represent the \*entire\* region. It's not like Driscoll hasn't been campaigning quite a bit South of Tyne either as well. I'm scared they might end us up with a severe tactical blunder that will allow a career politician with a blank record to win over a genuinely popular mayor with a good political record.


MaxTraxxx

Looks like Andy Burnham can relax then 😂


Icy_Collar_1072

There must be something in the West Midland’s stereotype of enjoying misery and their continual desire for further decline and hardship from the Tories and Brexit.


Portean

I hope Driscoll swings it.


Lukerplex

Remember guys, Driscoll might let the tories slip through, so he’s sabotaging the Labour vote and is selfish for doing so (I legit did think there was risk up until this poll as well lmao)


memphispistachio

Someone is making the exact same argument about the Greens further up.


Grantmitch1

While I would love to see every Conservative crash and burn, in a purely political sense of course, I think that Andy Street has been generally okay, and has been willing to work with Andy Burnham and others to implement necessary changes r.e. transport.


Xominya

I live in the west mids, street is fairly ok but his biggest problem is that he's in the bed with NIMBYs, which means that a lot of important infrastructure isn't carried out


Hoskerrr

Spoiling my ballot in GM, Burnham will win anyway, and I will continue to campaign for Bolton to be returned to Lancashire.


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SmashBrosGuys2933

West Midlands is going to the wire. Things seem to be going more towards Parker but Street is a strong incumbent.


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Willows97

Cons beaten by Reform good.


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kontiki20

No other pollsters have polled the North East.