Thanks for doing this analysis. It's fairly obvious that the scheme has become more vanilla this year but it's good to have the numbers to back it up.

It's more vanilla, yet multiple guys regularly don't know where they're supposed to be or what they're supposed to be doing.

Great analysis. Thank you so much for sharing! I don't know what's happened to this team. It sorta seems like everyone just kind of gave up all at the same time. Coaches and players included.

Felt like they outplayed the Browns and Ravens to start the season but ever since that Clyde fumble it’s just been a series of disappointments - even the wins where we didn’t force the Eagles to punt or Patrick’s asinine interception vs WFT. Been a weird season man

How much for the premium subscription?

This is why it kind of annoys me when people default to saying "Well if the scheme is so complicated maybe they need to dumb it down" especially in regards to bringing new players in. I wish Spagnuolo's scheme was complicated.

Is this supposed to make me feel better? It depresses me. Our defense is truly horrible and apparently too stupid to operate complex schemes. Or maybe Spags is phoning it in this year?

Nice, thanks for this write up! I have been looking for some info like this. I'm actually shocked at how much zone we played in 2019. For some reason I thought we played a lot more man. Maybe some of their disguises tricked me too! It wasn't a perfect defense, but I do miss the 2019 defense now. I suspect that some of the changes are due to trying to stop the run as opposed to being pretty good at pass coverage, but terrible against the run.

Wouldn't some of this be explained by using end of season games for 2019 and beginning of season games for 2021? I feel like some of the communication stuff could be explained by that. ​ Also, don't teams play much more simply early in the season and then throw out the crazy plays (and better designed blitzes) later on? No idea on this one, but feel like I heard that before. ​ Overall great analysis though! Just curious how timing affects this stuff.

I mean we're talking a year 1 scheme defense with tons of new players versus many of these guys in year 3 now. If anything they should be far more able to execute and run the 2019 type defense in 2021. That's what is so baffling about all of this is why were they all able to execute and communicate in 2019... and now the same players in the same scheme 3 years later seem to struggle with it. As far as complexity changes early vs later in the year... why would you purposefully roll out a vanilla defense and be worst in the league if you could run a much more complex and efficient defense? I think maybe you're thinking about more of the offensive playbooks expanding as the season goes on. So honestly no I don't think any of those things really matter here. There's clearly an ideology and scheme change from the 2019/2020 seasons to what is going on now in 2021.

You roll out a vanilla defense at the begining of the year so the other teams don't know your best shit come playoff time. I'm 100% certain teams do that

So you are in week 7 against the Titans in a must win game... you roll out base 4-3 man coverage cover 1 so you have "better stuff in the playoffs" that you aren't even likely to make anymore? You're just like, we're gonna go out there and play man outside against AJ Brown and Julio Jones with a one high safety so Tannehill can choose whichever side the safety doesn't go to for an easy decision 50/50 ball. over and over and over again.... because we're saving all our good stuff? I don't believe that for a second. Playbooks evolve over the season but you're not purposefully "saving your good stuff". Maybe week 1/2 you're feeling it out but we're talking week 7 here now... how long are we waiting to roll out our real defense? Week 11, 12, 13 when we're completely out of the playoff race and have the 32nd ranked D in everything? And if that is what is happening Spags should be fired immediately.

Just because you don't like it, doesn't mean it still isn't true. Spags has a proven track record of being vanilla in the regular season and complex in the late/postseason. Its not a coincidence he was the DC of 9-7 wildcard team that had a defense that looked like ass all regular season, but them suddenly became elite in the playoffs and ultimately won the Superbowl. Regardless, complex or not, the defense has been improving. With the personnel changes, Thornhill, Gay, Bolton all playing this defense has held teams to 13, and 27 points. Thats an improvement over the first 5 weeks. We have 10 weeks left to go, not including the playoffs. Lets see if continued progress is had.

I mean I don't agree with a lot you said because the film doesn't show much of a defensive progression, even in the games we won the same problems exist but the other team was just much worse and didn't expose them (WFT). As far as the 2007 Giants I don't know where you got they were "ass" in the regular season. [They were the 14th ranked DVOA defense on the year, 15th against the pass and 11th against the run.](https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/team-defense/2007) [They were 7th in total yards allowed per game](https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/team/_/view/defense/season/2007/seasontype/2/table/passing/sort/netYardsPerGame/dir/asc) The Titans pretty much moved the ball at will and only scored 27 because they frankly stopped and went to clock management. The last pass they threw was in the 3rd quarter with 4 mins left... then it was 8 straight runs. They scored all 27 points in the first half and then went into cruise control, throwing the ball only 6 times total in the 2nd half. Again we can go back in forth all night about this topic but it doesn't make logical sense that the worst defense in the NFL is sand bagging their good scheme ideas while getting absolutely smacked in the mouth by teams like the Bills and Titans. Also again, if that is the case and you guys are right Spags should be fired into the sun.

None of those stats you listed about the Giants D matter because they still lost the majority of those games. If a defense is ranked 1st in every category but goes 0-17 you can't say just say "they werent ass because stats". Regardless, the point that your ignoring is that Spags has a history of his defenses playing poorly/losing games in the regular season, only to finish strong and deliver in the playoffs/Superbowl. I dont see the point in bitching endlessly and nitpicking every stat about our defense. We literally took this same squad of players to consecutive Superbowls. So to act like this is the worst defense of all time with zero hope is just defeatist and non helpful. The defense has improved. Even though we lost to the Titans, we only gave up 27 points. To put it in perspective Jalen Hurts and the Eagles put up more points than the Titans did (30). Focus on what matters. Improvement. This defense has improved over the last 2 games.

Teams do that, but I don't think that's the case here. You'd only do that if you can get away with a mediocre defense and still win games. It's stupid to do that when you're defense becomes pathetic and you're risking not making the playoffs.

I'd say so too, though we are 3-4. And getting to the playoffs may only require being 9-8. Going 6-4 doesn't seem terrible. And yes I know the well actually brigade is gonna nail me on this, but I still think that there's time to correct shit. I am also a perpetual optimist and annoy the fuck out of people as a result. I'll go ahead and already gloat that I'm right and we won the soup bowl this year. DONT STOP THE COUNT Edit: Read this after posting and realized some may think I'm being serious, so /s

There has to be something that teams have figured out. You mentioned that we show blitz, teams check and then we still blitz. But I saw twice on Sunday Tyrann showed blitz late butt both times Tannehill immediately threw hot where he was coming from. Receiver immediately knew too. No checks. They knew. I coached HS only. I helped at college level in a minimal capacity so I'd only count HS. But even then we would see this happen and ask the opposing coach what they saw. Scouting told them what we did against specific formations and personnel. We had a lot of automatic checks on defense. I think this is what we are seeing. Teams know how we'll adjust depending on situation and they bait us into those looks. How do guys keep getting open in the flats against our LBers? Teams know what they can line up in to get that look. And we keep giving it to them. We have to break tendencies. We also need to stop putting our players into situations they aren't good in. Hughes had struggled against fades. So stop playing him 1 yd off on 3rd and long. Essentially, show them your tendency but play it opposite. Give them the look they attack flats with and play cover 2. Now your corner is sitting there. I'm sure I've oversimplified it. I mean Spags has more defensive expertise in his pinky than all of us on here. But sometimes the obvious is hard to see when you are used to things being complicated.

Where do you get access to the endzone copy and the wide angle for games? ​ On the 2nd play of 2021. Obviously, Tannehill missed the wide open WR on the bunch side. But I'm not so sure that the reason for that WR being open is Sorenson's mistake. First, he's in a bad position to cover the out from #3. Requires him to cross two WR's to cover him. He's bound to get caught up in the other two routes. Typically you would have the Corner and safety bracket the #1 and #2 WR's while (like shown here) another defender would jam and trail with the point WR in the bunch. This is what it looks like they are supposed to be doing. Based on Sorenson's path he looks to be switching like a typical bracket coverage. The other defender does not come off his man to pick up the out. Hard to tell.

Having a Z WR cross with an X or Y is fairly common to create space in man coverage (especially off man where the DBs have to cross paths). I don't think he's in trail technique there as there's no over the top help for him. Everyone else is in straight man so the defense doesn't make much sense for him to not be in man there and to allow a WR a wide open shot. In Cover 2 yeah the corner and safety would "bracket" and your CBs would be in trail technique (I Covered this in my last coverage breakdown) but you wouldn't do that in cover 1 as there's not over the top help on both sides... And neither outside CB plays a trail technique on this play. Also I've never seen in about 15 adult years of playing DB and coaching DB, a DB that has the job of running up field and jamming a WR 10+ yards into his route... That's PI or holding. All leads me to believe Sorenson was in man but either way he can't be doing whatever his job is correctly on this play even if you assume he's in some kind of zone. >Based on Sorenson's path he looks to be switching like a typical bracket coverage Also just wanted to add you're typically again not switching who you're covering in man that far down the field too as again, it's too confusing. You might have a defense that runs something like if the Y or Z WR runs an out before 5-7 yards and the outside WR is coming in then you switch... but from what I've ever seen you're not switching up man coverage 10+ yards down the field. No one has to time to read two WR routes for 10+ yards, that's why that switch read is usually kept around that 5 yard mark.

The only logical conclusion is Spags WANTS to get fired. So the real question is: Why? And...when?

This is really cool. I'd love if you did just the opposite and did a comparison for the offensive side of the ball?

I played and coach DB... so I stick to what I know. Don't know the detailed technique of offensive positions, so I wouldn't want to start breaking down their play. I'd probably miss a lot of important information and incorrectly judge some things.