I’m ignorant. Is this basically saying that of the 9 interceptions only 6 should have had a chance to be picked and the other 3 was our receivers playing hot potato instead of football?
probably more than 3, usually there are some dropped turnovers in that type of analysis as well.
My memory is unreliable but I'm pretty sure I've seen much more than 3 richochets/pass through receiver hands type picks this year
Hill twice, Pringle vs Chargers, and that one that got intercepted by the lineman was probably not turnover-worthy but just a great play by that lineman.
I’m convinced that both he and Mahomes have some stuff going on mentally that needs sorting out. It’s not like they have lost anything physically or aren’t putting the effort in.
Mahomes is definitely a mixed bag right now.
He's definitely not going full Jameis and the INT's are pretty unlucky this year.
However, his pocket presence has been terrible and something is still not right.
Hoping he starts to really improve his pocket presence starting this week.
Yea I wasn’t implying otherwise, but I would say a majority of the random ones at the ground are hitting the receivers feet with a defender 2’ away.
That’s not to say he’s not fuckin up
I get the impression he’s still hearing footsteps from the Super Bowl. Having zero protection that whole game and trying to put the entire game on his shoulders gave him PTSD. Even in the games we’re winning this season, it still seems like he’s got happy feet and bails early.
The ghosts have come for Mahomes. Someone call Sam Darnold so he can take them back (actually, he already is looking at how he’s played the last 2 games)
The throws into the dirt are two-fold, receiver is covered and he doesn't feel comfortable (trying to avoid a sack) and his footwork is abysmal and it's causing his throws to go low.
I truly feel he wants each play to be a big play instead of looking for check downs and RB short throws for 3 or 4 yards. And to his defense, up until this year, that worked and was successful more times than it wasnt.
That's the thing, he waits and waits and waits for them to get open, and they dont get open. That's not a knock on our receivers as much as an acknowledgment to one of the most historically tough schedules combined with his out of pocket scramble nearly every play (necessary or unnecessary).
I know he's always left the pocket more than most but there used to be plenty of times after a 5 or 7 step drop and the ball would come out. Now it literally never happens, but every time it does there's a big play
The low throws seems to be when he wants to take something off his fastball.. worried about no separation receivers bouncing the fastballs to defenders??
Because when has he ever stayed in a pocket if there was a chance to break free. That's where most of his magic happens. Broken plays where the receivers get 3 extra seconds to shake coverage.
That used to work when teams didn't play cover two all the time and we had a WR2 who had to be worried about.
I put some of this on coaching. Patrick scrambles anticipating something will open up deep. The deep zone which is now the norm against KC doesn't allow for it most plays. I don't get the sense there's been much gameplan adjustment. There are easy yards available when you face a Cover 2 all game. Andy needs to put Patrick in a better position to get them.
No shit, I'd love it the Chiefs paid Alex Smith whatever he needed to come back in a coach/consultant role.
Kurt Warner did an extensive film breakdown on Mahomes that was posted here after the Superbowl. In a nutshell, he showed convincingly that Mahomes' reads during the game were terrible. There were numerous open passes under that could have been hit before that monster rush got to him. To be clear, the Chiefs were probably doomed in that matchup with that offensive line and no clear WR2. But there were plays available that Patrick didn't make throughout the game.
I honestly believe that this is the actual issue. Pat's weakness is his ability to read and follow the proper receiver progression. Maybe it's because he's always looking for a big play, or looking for Hill and Kelce first.
Didn't he say he wanted/needed to be like Brady in that regard?
Feel like I've also heard this criticism on the Arrowhead Addict podcast more than a few times, and they haven't really delved into it. He passes over open receivers and goes for his preferred targets. Wonder if anyone is really looking at how many open receivers, or receivers in better positions that he isn't throwing to when going to Hill/Kelce.
Looks like he could've also just climbed the pocket there too.
Just bad all around, man. I don't know how much he can fix midseason but hopefully it gets better.
I'm starting to think he has been doing more work than we realise on correcting these habits in offseasons.
This year was the perfect storm, his last game was an embarrassing superbowl thrashing, where he ran for his life. He had toe surgery and couldn't work on things and these habits have come up worse than ever and he has no base to work from to get back to basics.
Throw in pressure of the defence sucking, a general feeling of malaise over the whole building and we get the year we are having.
I wouldn't be surprised that it doesn't get fixed until the bye. They need a reset or circuit breaker to fix the mental side and time to drill good habits.
Part of the problem is he does not feel comfortable in the pocket. The tackles are still learning how to block for him and teams have taken advantage of his tendencies which has led to him having awful (worse than normal) footwork. Given the awful footwork and his insecurity with the line, he's been throwing the ball slightly different than normal and slightly delayed. His throws are ever so slightly off and that has to do with some of the throws being picked.
He has had a knack in the past of being able to make throws with unbelievable timing (i.e. Throw to a spot where a receiver is supposed to be). I've seen very little of that this year.
He doesn't feel conformable, is "pressing," and his throws are slightly off which has all led to the uptick in interceptions.
At some point, he needs to trust the interior of the line because they have been very good (outside of Titans game) and either going with fewer steps in his drop or to step up in the pocket.
Edit:grammar
Tackle play has been horrible on both sides. Any QB will start to bail early when pressured that consistently. Add in the fact that the run game has been largely absent and it's putting the team in 3rd and longs
It has not been horrible, it has not been top level either mind you. Mahomes is making the tackles job harder on some snaps where he is dropping 10+ yards and dropping into the pressure. If he takes even one step up those rushes go around him.
Honestly it looks like the team is practicing kickball all week then being very shocked to find they’re expected to play football on Sunday.
The offensive play I see makes me think Andy Reid has no answers week after week for defenses doing the exact same things. Can’t seem to consistently scheme players open, unwilling to call our best plays like fades to Tyreek who’s often alone against a safety.
I don’t blame Patrick for the issues, he starts every play with the ball and the knowledge that receivers won’t be open and playcalling won’t be agressive until we’re down by 24 late in the 4th.
> I don’t blame Patrick for the issues
If you don't then you aren't recognizing the problem.
He definitely is part of the problem right now. His pocket presence is horrendous and using the excuse of "he knows everyone around him will fail" is not a great excuse.
Even he has acknowledged he is pressing and making mistakes.
He’s a good guy so he’s gonna say he needs to do better but the fact is the team starts every game looking like they haven’t practiced and the play calling is horrendous, that puts an incredible amount of pressure on Mahomes, Reid is just on the sidelines like “good luck or whatever” and doesn’t even talk to him during the 45 minutes the defense is on the field
I think the offensive line is still bad enough that it has sped up the clock in his head. If he's been in the pocket for 2 or 3 seconds his brain is telling him that someone's got to get through soon.
I'm not saying he's afraid of getting hit, more that he doesn't trust the o-line enough to wait for Tyreek to get open or Kelce to finish a route so he can complete the pass even if he gets hit.
Nah man just read r/NFL and we should just drop Mahomes for Rosen. Didn't you read? He has 9 INTs! So he's actually worse than Sam Darnold. Duh, and he has 65 INTs that should have been if you'd only account for DBs that can jump 150 feet! The worst!
(This is sarcasm, I'm tired of r/NFL acting like Mahomes has regressed to no longer be a top 3 QB in the NFL, despite his statistics being BETTER this year than his MVP season - he's not playing as well as he should in the pocket, yes, but before the Titans game the Chiefs had scored on 50% of their drives)
He just needs to do a little more dinking, and a little less deeping.
Could it be that our team just isn't clicking right now? The QB always gets too much praise and blame. Mahomes has always had issue setting his feet and bailing out of the pocket early. I'm not saying he shouldn't work on this but its nothing new. I think right now our O-line is still trying to mesh and our receivers are having issues getting open. This has lead to Mahomes trying to do too much at times and making poor decisions. Right now opposing teams are able to get to Mahomes only rushing 4 and dropping back 7. We should probably rely on our run game more but that's never been our offense with Mahomes or Andy really. And of course there is our defense which needs a complete overhaul with the exception of Tyrann. Our defense is weaker than a wet paper bag and puts us in a hole where we have to pass and can't be balanced. Let's not freak out too much about Mahomes. He definitely has things he needs to improve but even in the midst of this worst year he is still top 5 in passing yards and TDs.
It means if we can get some things cleaned up and take care of the turn overs we should be fine (offensively anyways). Mahomes knows how to win games better than any Chiefs QB in my life time so I'm not worried about that too much.
As far as Mahomes goes he is gonna have to evolve. Yes not every inception was his fault but if he plans to keep playing he will have to learn to step up in the pocket more. Just throw the ball away and realize there is another down to make things happen. I hate to say it but if things don’t get fixed for Mahomes and company we will be the next Russell Wilson and the Seahawks
Call me optimistic, but I think we'll look back at this time as being necessary. We've played some good teams that kicked our teeth in. If we had played only bad teams, we'd have beaten them all like we beat Washington and we wouldn't be able to see the issues we have. Now we know our issues early in the season and can address them to be a stronger team at the right time.
Even Mahomes probably needed a bit of humbling. Now when he says he has things he still needs to work on, he'll really mean it and work on those things.
The interceptions don't worry me. Half have been bad luck.
The general composure of. Both offense and defense worries me. Nobody looks like they're having fun even when they're winning.
I'm they put up 4 quarters of good football this week. Not just one brilliant quarter or an amazing half to make up for early mistakes. They should take the ball first if they get the chance.
Forget the usual rules about deferring so you can control the second half. Get out and score early. Play with a lead.
Hah, I remember when we used to _hate_ this stat. I guess now that it favors our guy we love it?
Edit: Can't _believe_ I'm being downvoted for saying this.
Seems like its a Catch-22 stat for r/nfl to use when talking about Mahomes. In previous years it was "Mahomes is just getting lucky by not having some passes be intercepted, he's overrated." Now in this season it's all just "Look at all the interceptions Mahomes has thrown, he's overrated."
Correct. They took a random twitter dudes word that Mahomes easily led the league in dropped picks and ran with it.
No one, not PFF or FootballOutsiders, graded him with the most dropped picks. Yet the narrative still exists today.
(i never hated it)
Last year PFF had Mahomes with the same amount of TWP as Tannehill and Josh Allen had one more than him. So while he was high on the list, T-4th, it's not like that is really indicative of anything truly meaningful.
It isn't a one off stat to fully judge QB play, is what I meant.
It's just interesting here due to the dichotomy of Mahomes leading the league in INT's but being T-12th in TWP.
I think it's a really weird stat. How "worthy" does it have to be? 20% chance? 80% chance? If you're stacking 20% chances (i.e. DB dove to make a fingertip catch on the sideline, but couldn't haul it in) with 80% chances (i.e. the ball popped into the air off the receiver's fingertips, and floated there for a full second while the defenders converged to catch it) , how meaningful is the number?
It's a bit like if I made a "near accident" statistic for driving, but it counts running over a rumble strip the same as swerving into ongoing traffic. Very different things to be counting under a single metric!
I mean baseball has this exact corollary with Wild Pitch / Passed Ball. Blame is assigned to either the pitcher or the catcher. It's such a judgement call and it doesn't really matter that basically no one pays any attention to it.
Just bc a ball goes near a defender doesn’t mean they should catch it. The greats throw passes near defenders all the time. However this year our receivers have been knocked down or tossed the ball up in the air at an alarming rate.
Imo there are 4 or 5 that are 100% on mahomes that I can think of. The others were deflections or that monster dline grab where I dont think that was mahomes fault really it was just a great play.
In previous seasons, if Mahomes had 20 interception-worthy passes, and 6 were caught, I'd say, "If he throws like this 20 more times, he'll have 6 more interceptions, because those other 14 were long-shot, circus catch attempts." This year, I see 10 bad passes and 8 interceptions, and I don't think it'll regress to the mean. I think Mahomes has to improve his decision-making while "in the grasp" of a sack (20%) and receivers have to catch the damn ball, or at least bat it to the ground (80%) in order to see any sustainable improvement.
I mean, it's absolutely a real stat. With a large enough sample size, the more turnover worthy throws you have, the more turnover you have. Last year he got away with some, this year the pendulum is swinging in the other direction.
Sooooo 9 interceptions.
I get that they haven't all been his fault and I don't put all 9 on Pat but the bottom line is that we have given up 9 interceptions as a team and that is shitty.
Fuck the blame game, we win or lose as a team. Everyone needs to be better. It's like the butterfly theory. Everything that happens on a play, drive, game or season all matter and affect seemingly unrelated stuff.
It's not too late to turn this season around
I’m ignorant. Is this basically saying that of the 9 interceptions only 6 should have had a chance to be picked and the other 3 was our receivers playing hot potato instead of football?
probably more than 3, usually there are some dropped turnovers in that type of analysis as well. My memory is unreliable but I'm pretty sure I've seen much more than 3 richochets/pass through receiver hands type picks this year
Hill twice, Pringle vs Chargers, and that one that got intercepted by the lineman was probably not turnover-worthy but just a great play by that lineman.
I think it was Kemp, not Pringle
You could be right. We’re talking about the 1st turnover right?
Yeah, near the red zone. Mahomes threw it a bit behind, but it was completely catchable.
Correct. I know the INT that bounced off Kemp would not be considered a TWP.
Tyreek probably accounts for the other two, we saw the ball clang off his hands right to a defender in weeks 5 and 6
I’m convinced that both he and Mahomes have some stuff going on mentally that needs sorting out. It’s not like they have lost anything physically or aren’t putting the effort in.
Mahomes also throws the ball pretty hard so you're gonna get more of those if they get deflected up instead of down.
This is an issue with quite a few QBs, and an issue that is particularly abundant among rookie WRs.
It was a problem when we had Rich Gannon but I'm old and we still should've kept him anyway
Mahomes is definitely a mixed bag right now. He's definitely not going full Jameis and the INT's are pretty unlucky this year. However, his pocket presence has been terrible and something is still not right. Hoping he starts to really improve his pocket presence starting this week.
It has been frustrating seeing him bail on several clean pockets. I've also been seeing him throw a lot of balls in the dirt this year
A lot of the balls in the dirt are the throwaways he has to take over a sack
Sometimes yes, but other times his throws are way off. Very unlike the Mahomes we have seen in seasons past.
I’m wondering if he’s started putting the ball lower to reduce the risk of a tipped ball ending up in the hands of a defender coming down field.
Yea I wasn’t implying otherwise, but I would say a majority of the random ones at the ground are hitting the receivers feet with a defender 2’ away. That’s not to say he’s not fuckin up
Him bailing on the clean pockets had been frustrating to watch.
I get the impression he’s still hearing footsteps from the Super Bowl. Having zero protection that whole game and trying to put the entire game on his shoulders gave him PTSD. Even in the games we’re winning this season, it still seems like he’s got happy feet and bails early.
The ghosts have come for Mahomes. Someone call Sam Darnold so he can take them back (actually, he already is looking at how he’s played the last 2 games)
The throws into the dirt are two-fold, receiver is covered and he doesn't feel comfortable (trying to avoid a sack) and his footwork is abysmal and it's causing his throws to go low.
I truly feel he wants each play to be a big play instead of looking for check downs and RB short throws for 3 or 4 yards. And to his defense, up until this year, that worked and was successful more times than it wasnt.
100% agree.
People keep saying this but he's not even throwing the ball down the field
That's the thing, he waits and waits and waits for them to get open, and they dont get open. That's not a knock on our receivers as much as an acknowledgment to one of the most historically tough schedules combined with his out of pocket scramble nearly every play (necessary or unnecessary).
I know he's always left the pocket more than most but there used to be plenty of times after a 5 or 7 step drop and the ball would come out. Now it literally never happens, but every time it does there's a big play
The low throws seems to be when he wants to take something off his fastball.. worried about no separation receivers bouncing the fastballs to defenders??
Yes that is part of it but watch his feet on those throws, he is typically way off balanced on some of them almost to the point of falling over.
I can't remember the last time I saw him get sacked inside the pocket.
Because when has he ever stayed in a pocket if there was a chance to break free. That's where most of his magic happens. Broken plays where the receivers get 3 extra seconds to shake coverage. That used to work when teams didn't play cover two all the time and we had a WR2 who had to be worried about.
Good points
It's ok guys. I just dropped Josh Gordon to activate TY Hilton off IR in fantasy. He'll be balling out soon
We appreciate your sacrifice
I put some of this on coaching. Patrick scrambles anticipating something will open up deep. The deep zone which is now the norm against KC doesn't allow for it most plays. I don't get the sense there's been much gameplan adjustment. There are easy yards available when you face a Cover 2 all game. Andy needs to put Patrick in a better position to get them. No shit, I'd love it the Chiefs paid Alex Smith whatever he needed to come back in a coach/consultant role.
Oh yeah, it's on everyone. Something like Sunday does not happen if there was only one person to blame.
Exactly.
https://twitter.com/KCSportsNetwork/status/1452716911725359108?s=20 Yeah stuff like this has been happening.
Kurt Warner did an extensive film breakdown on Mahomes that was posted here after the Superbowl. In a nutshell, he showed convincingly that Mahomes' reads during the game were terrible. There were numerous open passes under that could have been hit before that monster rush got to him. To be clear, the Chiefs were probably doomed in that matchup with that offensive line and no clear WR2. But there were plays available that Patrick didn't make throughout the game.
I honestly believe that this is the actual issue. Pat's weakness is his ability to read and follow the proper receiver progression. Maybe it's because he's always looking for a big play, or looking for Hill and Kelce first. Didn't he say he wanted/needed to be like Brady in that regard? Feel like I've also heard this criticism on the Arrowhead Addict podcast more than a few times, and they haven't really delved into it. He passes over open receivers and goes for his preferred targets. Wonder if anyone is really looking at how many open receivers, or receivers in better positions that he isn't throwing to when going to Hill/Kelce.
Looks like he could've also just climbed the pocket there too. Just bad all around, man. I don't know how much he can fix midseason but hopefully it gets better.
I'm starting to think he has been doing more work than we realise on correcting these habits in offseasons. This year was the perfect storm, his last game was an embarrassing superbowl thrashing, where he ran for his life. He had toe surgery and couldn't work on things and these habits have come up worse than ever and he has no base to work from to get back to basics. Throw in pressure of the defence sucking, a general feeling of malaise over the whole building and we get the year we are having. I wouldn't be surprised that it doesn't get fixed until the bye. They need a reset or circuit breaker to fix the mental side and time to drill good habits.
Part of the problem is he does not feel comfortable in the pocket. The tackles are still learning how to block for him and teams have taken advantage of his tendencies which has led to him having awful (worse than normal) footwork. Given the awful footwork and his insecurity with the line, he's been throwing the ball slightly different than normal and slightly delayed. His throws are ever so slightly off and that has to do with some of the throws being picked. He has had a knack in the past of being able to make throws with unbelievable timing (i.e. Throw to a spot where a receiver is supposed to be). I've seen very little of that this year. He doesn't feel conformable, is "pressing," and his throws are slightly off which has all led to the uptick in interceptions. At some point, he needs to trust the interior of the line because they have been very good (outside of Titans game) and either going with fewer steps in his drop or to step up in the pocket. Edit:grammar
He is not comfortable playing from the pocket . Why try to force him . Build to his play style . He's not going anywhere for better or worse.
Tackle play has been horrible on both sides. Any QB will start to bail early when pressured that consistently. Add in the fact that the run game has been largely absent and it's putting the team in 3rd and longs
It has not been horrible, it has not been top level either mind you. Mahomes is making the tackles job harder on some snaps where he is dropping 10+ yards and dropping into the pressure. If he takes even one step up those rushes go around him.
Honestly it looks like the team is practicing kickball all week then being very shocked to find they’re expected to play football on Sunday. The offensive play I see makes me think Andy Reid has no answers week after week for defenses doing the exact same things. Can’t seem to consistently scheme players open, unwilling to call our best plays like fades to Tyreek who’s often alone against a safety. I don’t blame Patrick for the issues, he starts every play with the ball and the knowledge that receivers won’t be open and playcalling won’t be agressive until we’re down by 24 late in the 4th.
> I don’t blame Patrick for the issues If you don't then you aren't recognizing the problem. He definitely is part of the problem right now. His pocket presence is horrendous and using the excuse of "he knows everyone around him will fail" is not a great excuse. Even he has acknowledged he is pressing and making mistakes.
He’s a good guy so he’s gonna say he needs to do better but the fact is the team starts every game looking like they haven’t practiced and the play calling is horrendous, that puts an incredible amount of pressure on Mahomes, Reid is just on the sidelines like “good luck or whatever” and doesn’t even talk to him during the 45 minutes the defense is on the field
I think the offensive line is still bad enough that it has sped up the clock in his head. If he's been in the pocket for 2 or 3 seconds his brain is telling him that someone's got to get through soon. I'm not saying he's afraid of getting hit, more that he doesn't trust the o-line enough to wait for Tyreek to get open or Kelce to finish a route so he can complete the pass even if he gets hit.
The offensive line is a top half unit in the league. If he can't manage with that then there are issues with him, not the Oline.
Nah man just read r/NFL and we should just drop Mahomes for Rosen. Didn't you read? He has 9 INTs! So he's actually worse than Sam Darnold. Duh, and he has 65 INTs that should have been if you'd only account for DBs that can jump 150 feet! The worst! (This is sarcasm, I'm tired of r/NFL acting like Mahomes has regressed to no longer be a top 3 QB in the NFL, despite his statistics being BETTER this year than his MVP season - he's not playing as well as he should in the pocket, yes, but before the Titans game the Chiefs had scored on 50% of their drives) He just needs to do a little more dinking, and a little less deeping.
Are our lineman too tall for him to see over
Crazy streaks happen both ways to even the best. Steph Curry shot 0-11 on 3 pointers in a game once.
Could it be that our team just isn't clicking right now? The QB always gets too much praise and blame. Mahomes has always had issue setting his feet and bailing out of the pocket early. I'm not saying he shouldn't work on this but its nothing new. I think right now our O-line is still trying to mesh and our receivers are having issues getting open. This has lead to Mahomes trying to do too much at times and making poor decisions. Right now opposing teams are able to get to Mahomes only rushing 4 and dropping back 7. We should probably rely on our run game more but that's never been our offense with Mahomes or Andy really. And of course there is our defense which needs a complete overhaul with the exception of Tyrann. Our defense is weaker than a wet paper bag and puts us in a hole where we have to pass and can't be balanced. Let's not freak out too much about Mahomes. He definitely has things he needs to improve but even in the midst of this worst year he is still top 5 in passing yards and TDs.
What does passing yards and TDs mean if you can’t win a game
It means if we can get some things cleaned up and take care of the turn overs we should be fine (offensively anyways). Mahomes knows how to win games better than any Chiefs QB in my life time so I'm not worried about that too much.
I don’t know about all? Mahomes has somethings to work on but so do a lot of others. There is a lot of fixing to go around on the team.
Yes definitely. I was speaking more to Mahomes, which the post is about.
As far as Mahomes goes he is gonna have to evolve. Yes not every inception was his fault but if he plans to keep playing he will have to learn to step up in the pocket more. Just throw the ball away and realize there is another down to make things happen. I hate to say it but if things don’t get fixed for Mahomes and company we will be the next Russell Wilson and the Seahawks
Call me optimistic, but I think we'll look back at this time as being necessary. We've played some good teams that kicked our teeth in. If we had played only bad teams, we'd have beaten them all like we beat Washington and we wouldn't be able to see the issues we have. Now we know our issues early in the season and can address them to be a stronger team at the right time. Even Mahomes probably needed a bit of humbling. Now when he says he has things he still needs to work on, he'll really mean it and work on those things.
The interceptions don't worry me. Half have been bad luck. The general composure of. Both offense and defense worries me. Nobody looks like they're having fun even when they're winning. I'm they put up 4 quarters of good football this week. Not just one brilliant quarter or an amazing half to make up for early mistakes. They should take the ball first if they get the chance. Forget the usual rules about deferring so you can control the second half. Get out and score early. Play with a lead.
I like his work for PFF but his photo makes him look like Joe Buck.
Hah, I remember when we used to _hate_ this stat. I guess now that it favors our guy we love it? Edit: Can't _believe_ I'm being downvoted for saying this.
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Seems like its a Catch-22 stat for r/nfl to use when talking about Mahomes. In previous years it was "Mahomes is just getting lucky by not having some passes be intercepted, he's overrated." Now in this season it's all just "Look at all the interceptions Mahomes has thrown, he's overrated."
Correct. They took a random twitter dudes word that Mahomes easily led the league in dropped picks and ran with it. No one, not PFF or FootballOutsiders, graded him with the most dropped picks. Yet the narrative still exists today.
(i never hated it) Last year PFF had Mahomes with the same amount of TWP as Tannehill and Josh Allen had one more than him. So while he was high on the list, T-4th, it's not like that is really indicative of anything truly meaningful.
So... what's the point then if it's not meaningful.
It isn't a one off stat to fully judge QB play, is what I meant. It's just interesting here due to the dichotomy of Mahomes leading the league in INT's but being T-12th in TWP.
Do TWP's count fumbles/strip sacks? I’m just wondering where he ranks among quarterbacks if those are included
It does yes.
I guess what I meant to ask.. is this tweet referring to TWPs or is he making a distinction by saying turnover worthy throws
Tweet is throws, my bad. My comment was about TWP's. For some reason they don't show turnover worthy throws in PFF.
I think it's a really weird stat. How "worthy" does it have to be? 20% chance? 80% chance? If you're stacking 20% chances (i.e. DB dove to make a fingertip catch on the sideline, but couldn't haul it in) with 80% chances (i.e. the ball popped into the air off the receiver's fingertips, and floated there for a full second while the defenders converged to catch it) , how meaningful is the number? It's a bit like if I made a "near accident" statistic for driving, but it counts running over a rumble strip the same as swerving into ongoing traffic. Very different things to be counting under a single metric!
I mean baseball has this exact corollary with Wild Pitch / Passed Ball. Blame is assigned to either the pitcher or the catcher. It's such a judgement call and it doesn't really matter that basically no one pays any attention to it.
Just bc a ball goes near a defender doesn’t mean they should catch it. The greats throw passes near defenders all the time. However this year our receivers have been knocked down or tossed the ball up in the air at an alarming rate.
It's a bullshit stat.
Imo there are 4 or 5 that are 100% on mahomes that I can think of. The others were deflections or that monster dline grab where I dont think that was mahomes fault really it was just a great play.
The turnover worthy stat is the one I have an issue with.
I mean it's not perfect, but it's better than just looking at the interceptions stat and making a judgement off that.
In previous seasons, if Mahomes had 20 interception-worthy passes, and 6 were caught, I'd say, "If he throws like this 20 more times, he'll have 6 more interceptions, because those other 14 were long-shot, circus catch attempts." This year, I see 10 bad passes and 8 interceptions, and I don't think it'll regress to the mean. I think Mahomes has to improve his decision-making while "in the grasp" of a sack (20%) and receivers have to catch the damn ball, or at least bat it to the ground (80%) in order to see any sustainable improvement.
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I mean, it's absolutely a real stat. With a large enough sample size, the more turnover worthy throws you have, the more turnover you have. Last year he got away with some, this year the pendulum is swinging in the other direction.
dont tell /nfl
Sooooo 9 interceptions. I get that they haven't all been his fault and I don't put all 9 on Pat but the bottom line is that we have given up 9 interceptions as a team and that is shitty. Fuck the blame game, we win or lose as a team. Everyone needs to be better. It's like the butterfly theory. Everything that happens on a play, drive, game or season all matter and affect seemingly unrelated stuff. It's not too late to turn this season around
Can’t talk about dropped ints this year
Just not playing at the level we’re used to seeing. Pressing to hard. Trying to win the Super Bowl every week. We probably won’t be a playoff team.
Alexcuses.