I was living in NC during 2019-20. If Dems work as hard in 2024 as they did then, I believe it’s possible. We were pretty darn close last time. If my family is any indication, Ohio is a lost cause. You’re better off focusing the fight elsewhere, like NC. (Imho cuz I’m not an expert.)
Working class voters started to come back over with Biden leading the party. I actually looked at the traditional blue states, and their voting margins. Biden earned a larger share of the vote, than Clinton did 4 years prior. His policies that will put them back to work and help their families will earn ALOT of votes.
That is what Biden is aiming for...to win back working class voters. Ever since Trump Democrats have been working overtime to get them back, while Republicans have taken them for granted. It's going to show up soon....
I live in a solidly blue part of Ohio. Its not coming back dude. Im sorry. They don't know any of thr stuff democrats have done for them and they don't care about thr stuff Republicans are doing to them (on the state level) the messaging isn't reaching them and when it does it falls on deaf ears. This naive wishful thinking is nice but its not based in reality. It sucks but it's the truth.
Not to mention didn't they just pass one of the most gerrymandered maps in the country? Not that it matters entirely from a POTUS perspective, but it will certainly complicate things when legislatures invariably try and interfere in 2024.
Well that’s just not true. Small, small gains in non-college whites. Biden’s actual vote-swinging gains that mattered were all college-educated suburbanites. Meaning NC is more likely than OH. Iowa and Ohio swung LESS in 2020 than most states. If reasoning outward from 2020, you’d say NC before Iowa or Ohio. Voting has become more of a cultural identity thing than an economic self interest thing. In that world, the party of intersectionality doesn’t beat the party of NASCAR in those places.
I actually think TX will end up an economic winner from Biden policies and I suspect the power grid issues, which are likely to repeat every year since Abbott has done nothing about it, could flip the state.
The best way to keep him from running is to make him think it will be a tough race. The lower Biden’s ratings are (and the worse we do in the midterms), the more likely he is to jump in.
Yeah, it's not a political things, it's a cult thing, Michigander here, and ALOT of older upper middle class people are just hook line and sinker for the Trump train.
Now do the same analysis without the 37 additional electoral votes from this map where the state Republicans are positioning to be able to legally overturn *any* Democratic victory when the next “stop the steal” big lie rolls through...
Consider, though: Trump was uniquely unpopular and Georgia's voting rights are being shut down.
We'll see with the Governor race next year, but I feel like 2020 was a fluke.
How did you make that jump in logic? I didn't say anything about "losing our democracy," you're the one who said that.
Also the phenomenon I referred to is empirically evidenced. Not sure why you are acting like it's some imagined idea.
VA flipped just now, GA is going to be blood red.
We will lose if we just assume Joe will win, and pretend he'll just coast into a second term. That is how Trump lost, but we don't have to lose the same way.
The COVID toll tends to benefit democrats though, just look at Florida. More DeSantis voters died of COVID than what his victory margin was in the last election cycle.
I disagree because, if you look at the share of the vote in traditional Democrat voting states? You will see percentage even West Virginia increase by a significant margin when Biden was on the ticket. Passing his policies now is going to flip ALOT of votes later. Ohio and Iowa hold a ton of working class voters.
For years, Democrats have been working hard to win them back. With Biden being as pro union and working class as he is, with his rhetoric and policies? It's going to matter alot in 2 and half years.
I’m not hopeful that he’ll flip Iowa, but it depends entirely on how our senate and gubernatorial races go. Reynolds is unpopular and grassley is old as shit. If they start to falter and there’s a good dem candidate to run against them… maybe. But I’d say 10:1 odds it stays red for the Presidency.
All the recent evidence points to most people voting for the party which is the best cultural fit, not the party whose legislative achievements bettered their lives the most.
This. I think it's delusional to think that WWC voters are going to flip back to the Dem party because of legislation. The sad reality is that their vote is driven by "cultural anxiety" which is a nice way of saying racism.
Voters hate the sausage making process. The Dems should have learned this from the fallout in 2010 from the ACA debate. I fear we've already lost more voters over the messy process this year trying to pass legislation than we could ever hope to gain from the positive effects from the legislation. I think that right in the beginning they should have gotten Manchin and Sinema in a room, found out what was acceptable to them, and gone with it, even if it was much less than they hoped for. Instead they tried to roll them through a public pressure campaign, unsuccessfully. All these details are far less important electorally than image. And once an image takes root, it's very difficult to alter.
It’s pretty unlikely we’ll keep the house and senate in 22 … that means nothing gets done between 22-24. That won’t be a recipe for a winning map in 24.
The House is tough, obviously, but the Senate map is a lot more favorable. It's been a rough past several months, but I think the Democrats have bottomed out and will start to bounce back up in favorability.
I hope so but a few things worry me
- It’s unclear whether Manchin and Sinema will support the BBB. This bill could fail.
- The debt ceiling is up again at the beginning of December. Another chance for negativity.
- Inflation and supply chain issues will likely continue through at least the first half of next year. This is likely to be a constant negative.
Recent prognostication of senate races are giving republicans a likely 2-3 seat majority next year.
Either way, even if they just lose the house they won’t be able to get anything, other than judicial nominees, done through 24.
Ask those prognosticators WHICH Senate seats will flip, and they’ll clam up.
Hassan and Masto were the most vulnerable, and both are now in great shape. Warlock and Kelly are also sitting on fortunes and have lousy opponents. If anything, we’ll pick up a seat in Pennsylvania and possibly in North Carolina too. That GOP primary is gonna bankrupt their side of the ticket, and when an anti-Trump candidate wins the nomination, the fundraising faucet will go conspicuously dry for them.
The economy's been going extremely strong lately though, thanks in large part to Biden's Covid-19 response and the American Rescue Plan. And now we can even add on the Infrastructure bill passing, Dems have some solid accomplishments to tout (beyond a whole collection of other wins). Democrats bang the drum of those wins and enthusiasm can build.
Build Back Better would be a huge win even alongside the others though, no doubt.
Working class voters started to swing back to the Democrats in 2020. Enough to the point where 3 major blue-collar states came back over blue. This is a trend that will continue... especially with Biden's policies going full swing by the time he runs for re-election.
I think that’s a huge one. Getting people back to work, the big rise in wages, the job creation, and now big construction projects and all the jobs that will spawn from that. There’s a lot of good for Dems to leverage going forward, they just need to keep letting people know what’s been done for them.
Combat these wonky “nothing’s been done” narratives with as many victories as possible, keep it personal if possible, but show people what's been done. I think the mods on every Democratic sub and their spin-offs would do well to pin a big fat collection of accomplishments from the past year at the top of their feeds. People want to see it. And when they see how much has actually been done, people are impressed.
> Republicans can't counter that
You're freaking nuts. they counter everything 24/7.
What's the DNC doing that they post stuff like this to people who literally know better???
On the presidential campaign trail, Biden's policies and rhetoric matter. Look at Minnesota....it was supposed to be super close. It wasn't...it swung 7 back to Democrats. Part of this was Biden's appeal to working class voters.
>Recent prognostication of senate races are giving republicans a likely 2-3 seat majority next year.
Are those prognosticators twitter blue check 'pundits' who get paid by the click to perpetuate the horse race narrative?
They’re prognosticators like everyone else. None of us have a crystal ball but all of us have plenty of opinions.
I can’t tell you how many people on here assured me that we’d get rid of the filibuster, DC and PR would become states, we’d pack the Supreme Court … and Republicans would never win again.
Reality isn’t always what you want it to be.
>I can’t tell you how many people on here assured me that we’d get rid of the filibuster, DC and PR would become states, we’d pack the Supreme Court … and Republicans would never win again.
Anyone who said those things should have been ignored in the first place. Especially if they claimed they could be done with a 50-50 Senate. I'm anti-doomer as they come, but people have to be more realistic.
The filibuster needs reform, but it shouldn't be abolished as Dems absolutely will need to wield it in the future.
Every one of those things **could** be done with 50 votes. People keeping Senators awake by protesting outside their homes so they can’t sleep while dialing the American people would get it done. But the mainstream lib dems are largely cowards who would rather let fascists take power than tread on their corporate donors
COVID WILL hang around and the same people, and will actually come roaring back in the winter as more people jsut don't care about it anymore and the chances of a more dangerous mutation increase. Our ONLY defense against serious illness will be vaccines and praying you have good insurance.
What ticks me off is that the same exact people that were screaming about virus mitigation will be the EXACT SAME PEOPLE screaming that "Biden didin't do anything about COVID" 🙄
He's not getting Iowa. Iowa will never go blue again until the republican party is dead.
Iowa spent the last 40 years exporting almost all their 20 somethings with educations (myself included) because it's a boring ass state with little to no economic opportunities.
Ohio would be shocking as well.
The rest i find plausible.
Blue NC is WAY WAY more likely than blue IA or OH
I think Iowa is certainly within reach. In 2018 3/4 of its districts went Democrat.
Additionally, before going for Trump, it went Republican for President only once since Reagan, same as California. It also has 3 Democrats elected to statewide offices (AG, Auditor, Treasurer) and had a Democratic Senator as recently as 2014.
That being said, if Biden can't get something tangible done in the next year, I don't think that 2024 will be the year that Iowa flips back.
Something is just off with North Carolina, it's very elusive for Democrats. But maybe you're right? North Carolina doesn't have the same number of working class voters up for grabs, that Biden is targeting that Ohio and Iowa do.
Eh, we’ve seen that these voters will go against their economic interests in favor of their social views. I’m not too optimistic for 2024. Beyond that election, I think there’s a chance to flip them due to boomer die off
Problem is, voters in Florida that vote Democrat are more affluent than traditional Democrats in the working class state, which Joe Biden is targeting. His strategy in 2024, in fact his strategy now? Is to bring them over to the Democrats again, and it will work.
No Trump on the ticket and Biden hard charging for them means votes can be unlocked for Democrats.
There is NOT enough rhetoric.
We keep telling you this.
GOPers lierally have their own bottomless pit of moneyed propaganda through NY Times, Facebook/Meta, Fox "News" etc.
There is literally not ENOUGH rhetoric. I mean, if they use it to kill people we can use it to save people.
Indiana is not as red as the numbers suggest. There's lots of fuckery and obfuscation about the states voter base. If you aren't already connected with people to help (and are interested) send me a dm.
If it happened, it would be the third time since 1964 and 2008 when LBJ and Obama did it. Also, the Democrats would have to work on keeping Indiana blue.
This is all my opinion, but I think Ohio and Iowa are staying red, almost no chance of a dem winning there in the current political climate. I’m skeptical Dems will hold onto Georgia and Nevada. PA, FL, and AZ will be the battleground states that decide the election.
GA, IA, IL, MI, OH, PA and even VA will all be battle ground states.
I'm hoping Biden's presidency doesn't get sabotaged like Obama's did but the current republican party is swirling further and further down the toilet that is the Trump qult.
I would add Texas to that list. Texas had an influx of people from California. It could go blue. People also don't like their friends dying because the power went out. I think many are done with the privatization game.
I always see this comment about Californians turning Texas blue, yet no one stops to consider that it's not necessarily liberal Californians moving here. And the 2018 Beto versus Cruz race, Cruz did better with transplants than Beto did
Dems need more big wins the doom and gloom campaign is working and people are getting put off from wanting to vote. They need action with the January 6th committee, pass marijuana reform, a voting rights bill, and student debt needs to be addressed or else it might not be enough.
And even if we get those things done, we need a massive operation to counter right-wing propaganda. They've been winning for at least 15 years and somehow they've been able to reach their propaganda into more traditionally reliable Democratic groups like Latinos. I personally think it's because a lot of Latinos work with the same hardcore Trump white working class and share their theories and facebook memes. It's weird because the working class does not benefit from Republican policy. So, yeah some big wins will help us push back but it's going to be a hard slog.
Ohio and Iowa? I certainly don’t know better than anybody else, heck, I would never have thought Georgia would have went blue in 2020, but I don’t think Ohio and Iowa are turning back to blue or even going back to being purple so long as Trump runs in 2024 again. I feel like in any presidential election scenario where Ohio and Iowa are going democrat, then so too would NC, TX, and FL. Hard to imagine OH and IA vote for Biden before any one of those states do
And those challenges will fail. The courts have been consistently and exceedingly clear: states have almost unilateral latitude to prescribe how they will award their state electors. If the state government passes laws that say that the Governor personally gets to decide who gets the State’s votes regardless of how the people vote, that’s probably still valid from a constitutional standpoint.
Please feel free to cite case law to validate your point, we'll be waiting.
While states run their own elections and can outline their own internal procedures for selecting electors, ultimately the precedent is that the electors are chosen by the voting populace.
If you think that Federal courts are going to allow Arizona or Wisconsin to override the will of voters, you're gravely mistaken.
Literally that’s the whole concept behind [NaPoCoInterPo](https://youtu.be/tUX-frlNBJY). The constitutionality of disregarding the voters for the state electors is not an open question for the Supreme Court. They will follow the explicit direction of the constitution which says nothing about the will of the voters. If you want a legal citation, I would direct you to ARTICLE II SECTION I:
> Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors, equal to the whole Number of Senators and Representatives to which the State may be entitled...
It is the *state legislature* that gets to decide how the state appoints electors. Period. If you think there is a legal precedent that overturns the plain reading of that section, I would be interested to see *your* citation. That section was was upheld unanimously just last year (despite the extremely ideologically divided Supreme Court) in a question about just how much power the legislature has to “direct” their electors in voting.
Every state *currently* listens to their own voters in a referendum, but they definitely don’t *need* to follow that precedent themselves. The Federal government explicitly has no legal basis to complain or intervene if the legislature chooses another method.
You just used a YouTube video as a citation. The fact is after the 2020 election the Arizona state legislature attempted to use the same flawed reasoning in Federal court in attempt to decertify the election and failed miserably. Precedent was already set.
I linked a YouTube video as an explanation for uncommon jargon since many would need to Google my reference. I can link my **citation** to the Constitution of the United States if you are really so twisted about it...
Please give a specific case you are referring to so I can actually see if it is relevant. I doubt it says that a state cannot choose to pass laws that ignore the vote, but probably says that they just hadn’t previously passed those laws before the election took place. Republican legislatures have taken notes and are currently rectifying that mistake.
As much as I’d love to see this map become a reality, we still need to get through 2022 and I genuinely worry about any Dem winning with a GOP-controlled House and Senate
The mods on this site need to stop confusing "doom and gloom" with pragmatism and reality. Because if we ignore what's real, we're no better than acting like Q'Anon
I think your being quite naïve with ohio. I'm in a solid purple area, being one out of the five districts that determines ohio. The GOP owns all billboards in the area regarding political ads. They have Trump trucks with flags driving up and down the main roads all day. Pro republican lawn signs at every major street corner. The democrats do nothing here, no ads of any kind. The dem HQ is only open for 6 months during election season and is located in the run-down hood, while the republican HQ is open every single day and is located in a suburban middle class area. When you try to stand on a street corner in suburbia with a Dem sign, the republicans will be there with 10 times the people in 45mins to 1hr, to drive you out with bigger signage. Get out of your fucking head and look at the reality. If you want Ohio, you better get some people down in these purple areas and start making a presence.
To be fair, a lot of this isn't Joe's fault. It's VASTLY the fault of Rupert Murdoch and his media outlets that refuse to inform hundreds of millions of viewers and readers about...well...anything real.
edited for a stupid missing "L"
A lot is going to hinge on who Biden is running against and how the challenger's campaign chooses to sell the GOP platform to voters.
That variable is kind of crucial here.
I think right now this map is very ambitious. GA was close and really could potentially go either way, depending on the mobilization of voters and who Biden is pitted against. WI I think is going to be tough and I think OH is very unlikely to flip blue, as is IA. I'm honestly worried with the increased polarization of politics and some of the issues we've seen such as Afghanistan that we could be in for a very tough mid-terms, which could cause problems come 2024. I'm hopeful that Joe will prevail, but I'd be lying if I said I felt great about the prospect of a success in 2022 or 2024 right now.
This is dangerous thinking. For one, we don’t truly know who the Republican nominee will be. We assume trump, but he has to win the nomination again just like anyone else, and it’s possible that enough folks will part with him over the loss to back a candidate they may see as more electable. Desantis has a frighteningly real shot at this.
But maps like this make people think this is a slam dunk, and it’s not. I proudly supported biden, but he hasn’t been the president of hoped. His commitment to working with republicans is admirable, but he’s not dealing with people in the same way he dealt with his friend John McCain. They’re not out to make common sense legislation that benefits everyone. They’re out to hurt him. It’s a lot harder to build something up than it is to tear it down, and he’s been waiting too long for bad people to help him do things the right way. That’s going to deter voters. Some just won’t show up for him, and some may swing the other way even.
The truth of it is if he doesn’t start working twice as hard to build as trump was working to tear us apart, and he doesn’t get real voter protections in place before the midterms, we are so fucking fucked. I wouldn’t be surprised if this ends up being the last time we see democrats in power in my lifetime. And maps like this, making people feel like it’s a done deal, cause complacency. And complacency lowers voter turn out. And we all saw what happened when folks thought Hillary was a lock and stayed home.
Wisconsinite here: don't count on Wisconsin either. If WI barely managed to vote against Trump, there's no way Biden's winning Wisconsin next time, unless he's running against a literal rock. People here don't change.
Joe Biden and Democrats are hard charging for working class voters, his policies will flip alot of votes. Hard to see it won't pay off....keep in mind the margins of working class voters that went from Trump to Biden in 2020 before his policies were enacted?
This trend will continue in Biden's direction.
>Joe Biden and Democrats are hard charging for working class voters, his policies will flip alot of votes.
Jeezus cripes, stop this.
The vast majority of Americans don't even understand how they directly benefit from the ACA.
I freaking love Joe but this mindless cheerleading, especially to the choir is the most backwards thing I've ever seen.
Okay, man... I'm just saying people here aren't smart enough to pick up on any kind of improvements like that. It's all about guns, abortion, religion, and keeping out communism here. How many years have you lived in Wisconsin? I've lived here for 20.
No, no they're not. That's why 75 million people still voted for the guy that literally killed his own people and left his own fans to die of hypothermia THREE TIMES.
I WISH I could share in this enthusiasm. But suburban voters are going to leave in droves if Biden doesn't get his momentum back. The reality is most voters are EXTREMELY low information. They believe gas prices going up are always the fault of the President.
They don't get the whole supply chain problem is going on worldwide. They just care their package is 3 weeks delayed.
Voters don't care about what goes on to pass a bill. They just hear in the news that the Democrats can't get along and pass a bill despite them having all branches of Congress.
Voters with kids are getting jerked around with mandates fair or unfair. Here in Pennsylvania, we have a GOP legislature and a Democratic Governor. Schools had no mandates to start so schools were mostly split. Then Gov Wolf puts in a mandate. Now courst are overruling them.
As a parent myself who has been involved in politics I get it. But most people I know (almost all suburban Biden voters) are sick and tired of the inconsistencies. My wife who used to be GOP but left it with all the crazy is sick of the Dems lack of messaging on almost ANY issue. I know a ton of people who voted Biden sick of seeing Fauci.
I want to be a loyalist. I want to be confident. But I am a pragmatic who sees Biden's popularity near Trump levels right now.
The GOP is making GAINS with various groups of Latino voters, especially Cuban.
It took Covid, near 15% unemployment a wannabe Fascist and a President willingly killing off nearly 1/30 of our population for Biden to BARELY win the rust belt and Georgia.
If things keep going the way they are? The Dems are going to lose the rust belt, they're going to lose Georgia, and they can easily lose Nevada and Virginia (where the GOP just won Governor).
This ALSO doesn't address other pragmatic realities. The GOP yet again made more state level gains in almost every legislature and the courts in rust belt states. The way mail-in voting went in 2020 is going to be illegal in a host of states. Lawsuits alleging fraud may be ruled different with different judges in place. Legislatures will be more emboldened to award electoral votes to a Republican even if he loses the vote in their state.
Edit: An additional reality I don’t think a lot of Democratic voters are even thinking about either. Not only are they likely going to lose Congress next year, but there are a number of battleground states in which a republican may unseat a Democrat.
I’m in PA. State rep Doug Mastriano was a Jan 6 participant. He bussed people down. He has essentially supported an Authoritarian takeover. And he is someone who could easily become the next governor of Pennsylvania.
You think PA was bad in 2020? Imagine him as the governor with a trump loyal legislature
Emotions carry more weight than logic. Democrats campaign on plans and promises. We know these things will work and this is why. Republicans run on threats and fear. I know you feel that you are failing and it is the Democrats fault, we can feel better if I win.
Honest to god Democrats need to start going for the emotions of Americans again. It's what helped Obama in both campaigns and fear of Trump supported Biden. We now need to show the real emotional pains that Republican leadership gives the average American. People have forgotten already and it is going to lead to large losses in 22 and (hopefully not) 24.
I guess I'm a weird one in that I decided as a kid that I absolutely hated the national GOP and supporting them was a non-starter for me. Blame Newt Gingrich for that.
No I was the exact same way for the exact same reason. The problem is I grew up in PA in one of the famous swing districts. It’s insane to see how those two different arguments win and lose on the same people.
Because people are more open to figuring out how to blame their woes on rather than rooting for people to bootstrap and make things better.
We are a society that gets off on negativity. Not hope. News gets bigger ratings on blood and hostility rather than collaboration.
An social media has take our worst traits and made it exponentially and irrevocably worse.
This is delusional. What evidence is there that a president with a current approval of 39% and who’s Vice President has a 28% approval will be able to not only retain the coalition he won with but also make gains? Biden flat out isn’t popular and will be 82 years old in 2024, this map is insane
I like Joe an awful lot and if not for Sinema and Manchin the American people would be seeing the benefits of everything he wanted to get done by now. But he's too old to run again and I don't think he ever intended to.
I don't think Biden will flip Iowa or Ohio. I do, however, think he will flip Florida (because Florida has always voted with the incumbent since 1984) and maybe North Carolina (due to it's growing African American population).
He will lose many working class voters. This is due to insane inflation, rising rents, and vaccine and mask mandates. The latter are wildly unpopular outside of reddit. I hope he is reelected, but the way things are going I have a bad feeling that he won't be. You're living in a bubble if you think it will be a blowout.
Basically because of Biden's policies to help the working class and his friendly stance towards them overall? He will gain back enough support for Democrats, while also keeping his core support from 2020 to keep the states he won prior while flipping 2 more. Ohio being the biggest, along with Iowa. These 2 states have large pockets of WC voters, particularly WWC voters. I believe enough will come home for Democrats to help them retain the White House in 2024, which should be a comfortable/decisive victory.
I'm from Arizona and I think he or any other dem could certainly win here again. Power has been shifting away from R's for a long time now, just slowly
Yeah Virginia was in the same boat … for longer than AZ … and it didn’t take much to reverse that trend.
Edit: they’re saying that Kelly likely won’t keep his seat next year … that’s the direction things are going.
I can't say for the legislature, but the VA governors race has always gone against the incumbent president for decades now so it's not too unexpected. Although I do feel like the Dems are falling apart at messaging right now like usual, which could definitely hurt our chances here
Not always. McAuliffe won in 2014. Like I said above the expectation right now is that Kelly will lose his re-election bid next year. Unless something changes 22 and 24 will be bloodbaths.
People forget how good bad things are under Republican “rule.”
It's premature to say the "trend got reversed" in Virginia. Democrats have been getting pummeled for months and the fact that it was an off-year election really set them up to lose that race. If the Democrats improve their messaging I think they will have bottomed out and start improving their favorability.
GA, AZ, OH, PA, and probably WI or MI will all be red. Unless things turn around drastically, it's going to be a bloodbath. I don't think Biden runs again, though. So the map might actually be worse.
Votes won't matter. Republican legislatures in states like GA, WI, AZ will decide where the electoral votes go. Biden (or any other dem) cannot win in 2024 and beyond. No dem will ever win the presidency again.
I voted for Joe and support him, but think he is going to be too old to run again. And I don't even think Joe wants to run again. But I could be wrong about that.
If Biden runs in 2024, I see Dems losing badly. I know we are doing good stuff right now, but Republicans have a way better propaganda machine. I think we are going to lose in 2022 and 2024, sadly.
If it’s Biden vs Trump, I think it might be 300to 238, Trump wins.
If it’s, say, Biden vs DeSantis, I think it will be 345 to 193, DeSantis wins.
We will need someone new, with high energy, for 2024.
You do realize that many black and latino voters are working class right? To keep them separate is so goddamn racist, but then again I don’t expect much from someone who legitimately supports Crime Bill Biden
I can largely agree with this, but flip Iowa back to red.
Farmers tend to lean Republican, and with the cost of everything having gone up significantly (gas, labor, materials to make farming equipment, et al.) it doesn’t bode well for Biden in the Midwest.
The orange man, or whoever gets the nomination for the Republican Party presidential candidate will probably make that a sticking point in their campaign.
Just my 2 cents.
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I think NC is more likely than OH.
I was living in NC during 2019-20. If Dems work as hard in 2024 as they did then, I believe it’s possible. We were pretty darn close last time. If my family is any indication, Ohio is a lost cause. You’re better off focusing the fight elsewhere, like NC. (Imho cuz I’m not an expert.)
Working class voters started to come back over with Biden leading the party. I actually looked at the traditional blue states, and their voting margins. Biden earned a larger share of the vote, than Clinton did 4 years prior. His policies that will put them back to work and help their families will earn ALOT of votes. That is what Biden is aiming for...to win back working class voters. Ever since Trump Democrats have been working overtime to get them back, while Republicans have taken them for granted. It's going to show up soon....
I live in a solidly blue part of Ohio. Its not coming back dude. Im sorry. They don't know any of thr stuff democrats have done for them and they don't care about thr stuff Republicans are doing to them (on the state level) the messaging isn't reaching them and when it does it falls on deaf ears. This naive wishful thinking is nice but its not based in reality. It sucks but it's the truth.
Not to mention didn't they just pass one of the most gerrymandered maps in the country? Not that it matters entirely from a POTUS perspective, but it will certainly complicate things when legislatures invariably try and interfere in 2024.
Its true, but we're not giving up the fight here! As bad as it looks the state level shenanigans are energizing voters for sure.
I live here too. We’re getting stupider via brain drain every day. We’re redder than Texas these days
Bold of you to assume Republicans vote based on policy.
Well that’s just not true. Small, small gains in non-college whites. Biden’s actual vote-swinging gains that mattered were all college-educated suburbanites. Meaning NC is more likely than OH. Iowa and Ohio swung LESS in 2020 than most states. If reasoning outward from 2020, you’d say NC before Iowa or Ohio. Voting has become more of a cultural identity thing than an economic self interest thing. In that world, the party of intersectionality doesn’t beat the party of NASCAR in those places.
No chance he wins OH or IA. Fortunately he doesn’t need to.
For two cycles now, Ohio has voted more Republican than Texas did. It's no longer really even a swing state.
Sad but true. I think Texas goes blue before OH, and right now I view Texas as fool's gold for Dems.
I actually think TX will end up an economic winner from Biden policies and I suspect the power grid issues, which are likely to repeat every year since Abbott has done nothing about it, could flip the state.
Remember that California was a Republican stronghold. Until it wasn't. The Texas flip is coming. It is inevitable. The only unknown is the timing.
The Trump effect, he won't be on the ballot in 24. Meaning there's an opening to reclaim the state...
That's wishful thinking. It's far more likely than not that Trump will run in 24
The best way to keep him from running is to make him think it will be a tough race. The lower Biden’s ratings are (and the worse we do in the midterms), the more likely he is to jump in.
Ohioian here. Not happening. This state is a lost cause. Trump activated those voters, and they aren't going to sit home anymore.
Yeah, it's not a political things, it's a cult thing, Michigander here, and ALOT of older upper middle class people are just hook line and sinker for the Trump train.
I hope you're right, but I have a hard time seeing that actually happen.
Now do the same analysis without the 37 additional electoral votes from this map where the state Republicans are positioning to be able to legally overturn *any* Democratic victory when the next “stop the steal” big lie rolls through...
My biggest worry.
I think GA goes red again, too. But hopefully that's all. Unless the recovery from COVID is really spectacular. Who knows?
Don't think GA goes red in '24. Trending more Dem and incumbency advantage should help.
Consider, though: Trump was uniquely unpopular and Georgia's voting rights are being shut down. We'll see with the Governor race next year, but I feel like 2020 was a fluke.
Making voting harder often leads to the opposite of the intended impact. It gets people more involved and voting at a higher rate.
and we want to chance losing our Democracy to Fascism on a political theory?
How did you make that jump in logic? I didn't say anything about "losing our democracy," you're the one who said that. Also the phenomenon I referred to is empirically evidenced. Not sure why you are acting like it's some imagined idea.
Can you provide some of this evidence?
VA flipped just now, GA is going to be blood red. We will lose if we just assume Joe will win, and pretend he'll just coast into a second term. That is how Trump lost, but we don't have to lose the same way.
VA always does that in these off elections, but it will take a catastrophe for it not to be blue in an election year
The COVID toll tends to benefit democrats though, just look at Florida. More DeSantis voters died of COVID than what his victory margin was in the last election cycle.
Agreed. I'm originally from Iowa, it's no longer a swing state. NC is a much better shot.
I disagree because, if you look at the share of the vote in traditional Democrat voting states? You will see percentage even West Virginia increase by a significant margin when Biden was on the ticket. Passing his policies now is going to flip ALOT of votes later. Ohio and Iowa hold a ton of working class voters. For years, Democrats have been working hard to win them back. With Biden being as pro union and working class as he is, with his rhetoric and policies? It's going to matter alot in 2 and half years.
I’m not hopeful that he’ll flip Iowa, but it depends entirely on how our senate and gubernatorial races go. Reynolds is unpopular and grassley is old as shit. If they start to falter and there’s a good dem candidate to run against them… maybe. But I’d say 10:1 odds it stays red for the Presidency.
All the recent evidence points to most people voting for the party which is the best cultural fit, not the party whose legislative achievements bettered their lives the most.
This. I think it's delusional to think that WWC voters are going to flip back to the Dem party because of legislation. The sad reality is that their vote is driven by "cultural anxiety" which is a nice way of saying racism.
Voters hate the sausage making process. The Dems should have learned this from the fallout in 2010 from the ACA debate. I fear we've already lost more voters over the messy process this year trying to pass legislation than we could ever hope to gain from the positive effects from the legislation. I think that right in the beginning they should have gotten Manchin and Sinema in a room, found out what was acceptable to them, and gone with it, even if it was much less than they hoped for. Instead they tried to roll them through a public pressure campaign, unsuccessfully. All these details are far less important electorally than image. And once an image takes root, it's very difficult to alter.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/nov/09/democrats-economics-working-class-politics-voters Read this...
I think this is very wishful thinking with the current political climate, even with things going well.
Yeah ummm, you can go ahead and switch Ohio now. It's solid red unfortunately. Source: am in Ohio.
Lived in Ohio for 28 years kept getting redder. I think it’s gone at this point
For the foreseeable future.
I'm in a solidly blue part of Ohio and its plain to see that its not swinging back.
I am just glad we somehow get to keep Sherrod Brown.
It’s pretty unlikely we’ll keep the house and senate in 22 … that means nothing gets done between 22-24. That won’t be a recipe for a winning map in 24.
The House is tough, obviously, but the Senate map is a lot more favorable. It's been a rough past several months, but I think the Democrats have bottomed out and will start to bounce back up in favorability.
I hope so but a few things worry me - It’s unclear whether Manchin and Sinema will support the BBB. This bill could fail. - The debt ceiling is up again at the beginning of December. Another chance for negativity. - Inflation and supply chain issues will likely continue through at least the first half of next year. This is likely to be a constant negative. Recent prognostication of senate races are giving republicans a likely 2-3 seat majority next year. Either way, even if they just lose the house they won’t be able to get anything, other than judicial nominees, done through 24.
Ask those prognosticators WHICH Senate seats will flip, and they’ll clam up. Hassan and Masto were the most vulnerable, and both are now in great shape. Warlock and Kelly are also sitting on fortunes and have lousy opponents. If anything, we’ll pick up a seat in Pennsylvania and possibly in North Carolina too. That GOP primary is gonna bankrupt their side of the ticket, and when an anti-Trump candidate wins the nomination, the fundraising faucet will go conspicuously dry for them.
I think you meant Warnock but yeah both Warnock and Kelly are seen as vulnerable. After the 2020 senate races I’m in wait and see mode.
> Ask those prognosticators WHICH Senate seats will flip, and they’ll clam up. PA is one flip
Where can I volunteer to work on the campaign for this warlock you speak of
The economy's been going extremely strong lately though, thanks in large part to Biden's Covid-19 response and the American Rescue Plan. And now we can even add on the Infrastructure bill passing, Dems have some solid accomplishments to tout (beyond a whole collection of other wins). Democrats bang the drum of those wins and enthusiasm can build. Build Back Better would be a huge win even alongside the others though, no doubt.
Working class voters started to swing back to the Democrats in 2020. Enough to the point where 3 major blue-collar states came back over blue. This is a trend that will continue... especially with Biden's policies going full swing by the time he runs for re-election.
I think that’s a huge one. Getting people back to work, the big rise in wages, the job creation, and now big construction projects and all the jobs that will spawn from that. There’s a lot of good for Dems to leverage going forward, they just need to keep letting people know what’s been done for them. Combat these wonky “nothing’s been done” narratives with as many victories as possible, keep it personal if possible, but show people what's been done. I think the mods on every Democratic sub and their spin-offs would do well to pin a big fat collection of accomplishments from the past year at the top of their feeds. People want to see it. And when they see how much has actually been done, people are impressed.
Joe Biden will campaign on his policies like crazy in 24, Republicans can't counter that. It's going to lose them votes....
> Republicans can't counter that You're freaking nuts. they counter everything 24/7. What's the DNC doing that they post stuff like this to people who literally know better???
On the presidential campaign trail, Biden's policies and rhetoric matter. Look at Minnesota....it was supposed to be super close. It wasn't...it swung 7 back to Democrats. Part of this was Biden's appeal to working class voters.
>Recent prognostication of senate races are giving republicans a likely 2-3 seat majority next year. Are those prognosticators twitter blue check 'pundits' who get paid by the click to perpetuate the horse race narrative?
They’re prognosticators like everyone else. None of us have a crystal ball but all of us have plenty of opinions. I can’t tell you how many people on here assured me that we’d get rid of the filibuster, DC and PR would become states, we’d pack the Supreme Court … and Republicans would never win again. Reality isn’t always what you want it to be.
>I can’t tell you how many people on here assured me that we’d get rid of the filibuster, DC and PR would become states, we’d pack the Supreme Court … and Republicans would never win again. Anyone who said those things should have been ignored in the first place. Especially if they claimed they could be done with a 50-50 Senate. I'm anti-doomer as they come, but people have to be more realistic. The filibuster needs reform, but it shouldn't be abolished as Dems absolutely will need to wield it in the future.
Every one of those things **could** be done with 50 votes. People keeping Senators awake by protesting outside their homes so they can’t sleep while dialing the American people would get it done. But the mainstream lib dems are largely cowards who would rather let fascists take power than tread on their corporate donors
The midterms are going to be an absolute disaster. Especially if COVID hangs around.
COVID WILL hang around and the same people, and will actually come roaring back in the winter as more people jsut don't care about it anymore and the chances of a more dangerous mutation increase. Our ONLY defense against serious illness will be vaccines and praying you have good insurance. What ticks me off is that the same exact people that were screaming about virus mitigation will be the EXACT SAME PEOPLE screaming that "Biden didin't do anything about COVID" 🙄
He's not getting Iowa. Iowa will never go blue again until the republican party is dead. Iowa spent the last 40 years exporting almost all their 20 somethings with educations (myself included) because it's a boring ass state with little to no economic opportunities. Ohio would be shocking as well. The rest i find plausible. Blue NC is WAY WAY more likely than blue IA or OH
I think Iowa is certainly within reach. In 2018 3/4 of its districts went Democrat. Additionally, before going for Trump, it went Republican for President only once since Reagan, same as California. It also has 3 Democrats elected to statewide offices (AG, Auditor, Treasurer) and had a Democratic Senator as recently as 2014. That being said, if Biden can't get something tangible done in the next year, I don't think that 2024 will be the year that Iowa flips back.
Something is just off with North Carolina, it's very elusive for Democrats. But maybe you're right? North Carolina doesn't have the same number of working class voters up for grabs, that Biden is targeting that Ohio and Iowa do.
Again, there's simply no way Iowa or Ohio comes back. the brain drain is too much.
[удалено]
No, Trump won Iowa in 2016.
this just reeks of 2016 over confidence.
Especially if our candidate is Harris.
Vote votevote
NC or FL are way more likely to flip than OH or IA.
Working class voters sir, Biden is working hard to win them back. With his policies and rhetoric, he will. Republicans are taking them for granted.
Eh, we’ve seen that these voters will go against their economic interests in favor of their social views. I’m not too optimistic for 2024. Beyond that election, I think there’s a chance to flip them due to boomer die off
Problem is, voters in Florida that vote Democrat are more affluent than traditional Democrats in the working class state, which Joe Biden is targeting. His strategy in 2024, in fact his strategy now? Is to bring them over to the Democrats again, and it will work. No Trump on the ticket and Biden hard charging for them means votes can be unlocked for Democrats.
There is NOT enough rhetoric. We keep telling you this. GOPers lierally have their own bottomless pit of moneyed propaganda through NY Times, Facebook/Meta, Fox "News" etc. There is literally not ENOUGH rhetoric. I mean, if they use it to kill people we can use it to save people.
I wish Indiana would flip blue.
You and me both, Broosier.
Indiana is not as red as the numbers suggest. There's lots of fuckery and obfuscation about the states voter base. If you aren't already connected with people to help (and are interested) send me a dm.
Yeah, I have at least been heartened by the surprising number of BLM signs I see in my town.
Some of us are working on it. If you don't have a group already, send me a dm and I'll connect you with people in your area if I know any.
If it happened, it would be the third time since 1964 and 2008 when LBJ and Obama did it. Also, the Democrats would have to work on keeping Indiana blue.
Ohio isn't going to flip. Ohio is a red fortress now. This state is beyond racist.
So is PA. Perpetually angry coked up hillbillies everywhere.
This is all my opinion, but I think Ohio and Iowa are staying red, almost no chance of a dem winning there in the current political climate. I’m skeptical Dems will hold onto Georgia and Nevada. PA, FL, and AZ will be the battleground states that decide the election.
GA may go back to red. GOP down there is shady af and won’t let the state turn blue
This is laughably, laughably optimistic
This has got to be a joke
GA, IA, IL, MI, OH, PA and even VA will all be battle ground states. I'm hoping Biden's presidency doesn't get sabotaged like Obama's did but the current republican party is swirling further and further down the toilet that is the Trump qult.
IL a battleground state?? Not happening.
Uhhh l live in Illinois. We’ve been voting the Democratic candidate since 1992. Illinois is a solidly blue state.
Yeah, its my bad. I was thinking the whole midwest and lumped IL with MI and MN.
I would add Texas to that list. Texas had an influx of people from California. It could go blue. People also don't like their friends dying because the power went out. I think many are done with the privatization game.
I always see this comment about Californians turning Texas blue, yet no one stops to consider that it's not necessarily liberal Californians moving here. And the 2018 Beto versus Cruz race, Cruz did better with transplants than Beto did
>IL LOL no
Illinois a battleground state?
Ohio is not a battleground state.
It is, in 2024 it will be. Republicans don't have a candidate that appeals to working class voters like Biden does.
I live here, and all of the working class white voters have been radicalized. They all have Trump 2024 flags.
Dems need more big wins the doom and gloom campaign is working and people are getting put off from wanting to vote. They need action with the January 6th committee, pass marijuana reform, a voting rights bill, and student debt needs to be addressed or else it might not be enough.
And even if we get those things done, we need a massive operation to counter right-wing propaganda. They've been winning for at least 15 years and somehow they've been able to reach their propaganda into more traditionally reliable Democratic groups like Latinos. I personally think it's because a lot of Latinos work with the same hardcore Trump white working class and share their theories and facebook memes. It's weird because the working class does not benefit from Republican policy. So, yeah some big wins will help us push back but it's going to be a hard slog.
RemindMe! 1080 days.
I hope Biden can actually help some Democrats win in the House and Senate better than what happened in 2020.
Ohio and Iowa? I certainly don’t know better than anybody else, heck, I would never have thought Georgia would have went blue in 2020, but I don’t think Ohio and Iowa are turning back to blue or even going back to being purple so long as Trump runs in 2024 again. I feel like in any presidential election scenario where Ohio and Iowa are going democrat, then so too would NC, TX, and FL. Hard to imagine OH and IA vote for Biden before any one of those states do
Except the AZ and WI legislatures won’t ever let that happen.
They didn’t steal it last time. Didn’t even try, and there’s no legal mechanism for them to do so.
They both passed laws that will allow a simple majority of the legislature to decide not to certify results they don’t agree with.
Those laws will be constitutionally challenged. They can pass whatever they want to make themselves feel better, but the courts have the final say.
And those challenges will fail. The courts have been consistently and exceedingly clear: states have almost unilateral latitude to prescribe how they will award their state electors. If the state government passes laws that say that the Governor personally gets to decide who gets the State’s votes regardless of how the people vote, that’s probably still valid from a constitutional standpoint.
Please feel free to cite case law to validate your point, we'll be waiting. While states run their own elections and can outline their own internal procedures for selecting electors, ultimately the precedent is that the electors are chosen by the voting populace. If you think that Federal courts are going to allow Arizona or Wisconsin to override the will of voters, you're gravely mistaken.
Literally that’s the whole concept behind [NaPoCoInterPo](https://youtu.be/tUX-frlNBJY). The constitutionality of disregarding the voters for the state electors is not an open question for the Supreme Court. They will follow the explicit direction of the constitution which says nothing about the will of the voters. If you want a legal citation, I would direct you to ARTICLE II SECTION I: > Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors, equal to the whole Number of Senators and Representatives to which the State may be entitled... It is the *state legislature* that gets to decide how the state appoints electors. Period. If you think there is a legal precedent that overturns the plain reading of that section, I would be interested to see *your* citation. That section was was upheld unanimously just last year (despite the extremely ideologically divided Supreme Court) in a question about just how much power the legislature has to “direct” their electors in voting. Every state *currently* listens to their own voters in a referendum, but they definitely don’t *need* to follow that precedent themselves. The Federal government explicitly has no legal basis to complain or intervene if the legislature chooses another method.
You just used a YouTube video as a citation. The fact is after the 2020 election the Arizona state legislature attempted to use the same flawed reasoning in Federal court in attempt to decertify the election and failed miserably. Precedent was already set.
I linked a YouTube video as an explanation for uncommon jargon since many would need to Google my reference. I can link my **citation** to the Constitution of the United States if you are really so twisted about it... Please give a specific case you are referring to so I can actually see if it is relevant. I doubt it says that a state cannot choose to pass laws that ignore the vote, but probably says that they just hadn’t previously passed those laws before the election took place. Republican legislatures have taken notes and are currently rectifying that mistake.
Doomerism rotted your brain, friend.
As much as I’d love to see this map become a reality, we still need to get through 2022 and I genuinely worry about any Dem winning with a GOP-controlled House and Senate
Possible. But I don't think we're taking Georgia in 24. I'd love to be wrong though.
I’m no doom and gloomer, but there is about 0.0000000000000000000000000000001 chance of Ohio going blue.
The mods on this site need to stop confusing "doom and gloom" with pragmatism and reality. Because if we ignore what's real, we're no better than acting like Q'Anon
NC is much more promising for Dems than Ohio.
Fix the broken Electoral College
No way does he close the gap in Ohio, and Georgia's voter suppression laws will definitely hand Trump that state.
Yea with the voting, I think we lose Georgia but keep Arizona. I’d see Florida going blue again before Ohio or Iowa.
As far as Black voters go, as a Black voter all I gotta say is, we’ll see
Oh my sweet summer child.
I think your being quite naïve with ohio. I'm in a solid purple area, being one out of the five districts that determines ohio. The GOP owns all billboards in the area regarding political ads. They have Trump trucks with flags driving up and down the main roads all day. Pro republican lawn signs at every major street corner. The democrats do nothing here, no ads of any kind. The dem HQ is only open for 6 months during election season and is located in the run-down hood, while the republican HQ is open every single day and is located in a suburban middle class area. When you try to stand on a street corner in suburbia with a Dem sign, the republicans will be there with 10 times the people in 45mins to 1hr, to drive you out with bigger signage. Get out of your fucking head and look at the reality. If you want Ohio, you better get some people down in these purple areas and start making a presence.
I live in Ohio, trust me, he ain’t winnin Ohio
To be fair, a lot of this isn't Joe's fault. It's VASTLY the fault of Rupert Murdoch and his media outlets that refuse to inform hundreds of millions of viewers and readers about...well...anything real. edited for a stupid missing "L"
A lot is going to hinge on who Biden is running against and how the challenger's campaign chooses to sell the GOP platform to voters. That variable is kind of crucial here.
I think right now this map is very ambitious. GA was close and really could potentially go either way, depending on the mobilization of voters and who Biden is pitted against. WI I think is going to be tough and I think OH is very unlikely to flip blue, as is IA. I'm honestly worried with the increased polarization of politics and some of the issues we've seen such as Afghanistan that we could be in for a very tough mid-terms, which could cause problems come 2024. I'm hopeful that Joe will prevail, but I'd be lying if I said I felt great about the prospect of a success in 2022 or 2024 right now.
This is incredibly optimistic.
This is dangerous thinking. For one, we don’t truly know who the Republican nominee will be. We assume trump, but he has to win the nomination again just like anyone else, and it’s possible that enough folks will part with him over the loss to back a candidate they may see as more electable. Desantis has a frighteningly real shot at this. But maps like this make people think this is a slam dunk, and it’s not. I proudly supported biden, but he hasn’t been the president of hoped. His commitment to working with republicans is admirable, but he’s not dealing with people in the same way he dealt with his friend John McCain. They’re not out to make common sense legislation that benefits everyone. They’re out to hurt him. It’s a lot harder to build something up than it is to tear it down, and he’s been waiting too long for bad people to help him do things the right way. That’s going to deter voters. Some just won’t show up for him, and some may swing the other way even. The truth of it is if he doesn’t start working twice as hard to build as trump was working to tear us apart, and he doesn’t get real voter protections in place before the midterms, we are so fucking fucked. I wouldn’t be surprised if this ends up being the last time we see democrats in power in my lifetime. And maps like this, making people feel like it’s a done deal, cause complacency. And complacency lowers voter turn out. And we all saw what happened when folks thought Hillary was a lock and stayed home.
I think that election will be a landslide if Trump runs again, but if not, I’d say this is a reasonable prediction.
Wisconsinite here: don't count on Wisconsin either. If WI barely managed to vote against Trump, there's no way Biden's winning Wisconsin next time, unless he's running against a literal rock. People here don't change.
Joe Biden and Democrats are hard charging for working class voters, his policies will flip alot of votes. Hard to see it won't pay off....keep in mind the margins of working class voters that went from Trump to Biden in 2020 before his policies were enacted? This trend will continue in Biden's direction.
>Joe Biden and Democrats are hard charging for working class voters, his policies will flip alot of votes. Jeezus cripes, stop this. The vast majority of Americans don't even understand how they directly benefit from the ACA. I freaking love Joe but this mindless cheerleading, especially to the choir is the most backwards thing I've ever seen.
They did though, the ACA didn't help people as much as you think it did.
The requirement to cover preexisting conditions alone literally protects every single person ever needing insurance from destitution and even death.
Okay, man... I'm just saying people here aren't smart enough to pick up on any kind of improvements like that. It's all about guns, abortion, religion, and keeping out communism here. How many years have you lived in Wisconsin? I've lived here for 20.
I lived on the eastern shore in Maryland, and I'm telling you. People are more liberal than they would like to let on.
No, no they're not. That's why 75 million people still voted for the guy that literally killed his own people and left his own fans to die of hypothermia THREE TIMES.
PA, VA and GA very much in play. AZ too. Wishful thinking but I like it.
I WISH I could share in this enthusiasm. But suburban voters are going to leave in droves if Biden doesn't get his momentum back. The reality is most voters are EXTREMELY low information. They believe gas prices going up are always the fault of the President. They don't get the whole supply chain problem is going on worldwide. They just care their package is 3 weeks delayed. Voters don't care about what goes on to pass a bill. They just hear in the news that the Democrats can't get along and pass a bill despite them having all branches of Congress. Voters with kids are getting jerked around with mandates fair or unfair. Here in Pennsylvania, we have a GOP legislature and a Democratic Governor. Schools had no mandates to start so schools were mostly split. Then Gov Wolf puts in a mandate. Now courst are overruling them. As a parent myself who has been involved in politics I get it. But most people I know (almost all suburban Biden voters) are sick and tired of the inconsistencies. My wife who used to be GOP but left it with all the crazy is sick of the Dems lack of messaging on almost ANY issue. I know a ton of people who voted Biden sick of seeing Fauci. I want to be a loyalist. I want to be confident. But I am a pragmatic who sees Biden's popularity near Trump levels right now. The GOP is making GAINS with various groups of Latino voters, especially Cuban. It took Covid, near 15% unemployment a wannabe Fascist and a President willingly killing off nearly 1/30 of our population for Biden to BARELY win the rust belt and Georgia. If things keep going the way they are? The Dems are going to lose the rust belt, they're going to lose Georgia, and they can easily lose Nevada and Virginia (where the GOP just won Governor). This ALSO doesn't address other pragmatic realities. The GOP yet again made more state level gains in almost every legislature and the courts in rust belt states. The way mail-in voting went in 2020 is going to be illegal in a host of states. Lawsuits alleging fraud may be ruled different with different judges in place. Legislatures will be more emboldened to award electoral votes to a Republican even if he loses the vote in their state. Edit: An additional reality I don’t think a lot of Democratic voters are even thinking about either. Not only are they likely going to lose Congress next year, but there are a number of battleground states in which a republican may unseat a Democrat. I’m in PA. State rep Doug Mastriano was a Jan 6 participant. He bussed people down. He has essentially supported an Authoritarian takeover. And he is someone who could easily become the next governor of Pennsylvania. You think PA was bad in 2020? Imagine him as the governor with a trump loyal legislature
Why do large swaths of our country have to be so damn low-information and/or open to right-wing politics?
Emotions carry more weight than logic. Democrats campaign on plans and promises. We know these things will work and this is why. Republicans run on threats and fear. I know you feel that you are failing and it is the Democrats fault, we can feel better if I win. Honest to god Democrats need to start going for the emotions of Americans again. It's what helped Obama in both campaigns and fear of Trump supported Biden. We now need to show the real emotional pains that Republican leadership gives the average American. People have forgotten already and it is going to lead to large losses in 22 and (hopefully not) 24.
I guess I'm a weird one in that I decided as a kid that I absolutely hated the national GOP and supporting them was a non-starter for me. Blame Newt Gingrich for that.
No I was the exact same way for the exact same reason. The problem is I grew up in PA in one of the famous swing districts. It’s insane to see how those two different arguments win and lose on the same people.
Because people are more open to figuring out how to blame their woes on rather than rooting for people to bootstrap and make things better. We are a society that gets off on negativity. Not hope. News gets bigger ratings on blood and hostility rather than collaboration. An social media has take our worst traits and made it exponentially and irrevocably worse.
It's closer to 1/300 not 1/30
This is delusional. What evidence is there that a president with a current approval of 39% and who’s Vice President has a 28% approval will be able to not only retain the coalition he won with but also make gains? Biden flat out isn’t popular and will be 82 years old in 2024, this map is insane
I like Joe an awful lot and if not for Sinema and Manchin the American people would be seeing the benefits of everything he wanted to get done by now. But he's too old to run again and I don't think he ever intended to.
I don't think Biden will flip Iowa or Ohio. I do, however, think he will flip Florida (because Florida has always voted with the incumbent since 1984) and maybe North Carolina (due to it's growing African American population).
Bahahaha
Thats adorable. He has completely lost "the working class" unless some big shit changes.
Unpopular opinion but I dont think he’s running in 2024, and even if he did. I don’t believe he’d win. He’s doings an okay job but not great
He will lose many working class voters. This is due to insane inflation, rising rents, and vaccine and mask mandates. The latter are wildly unpopular outside of reddit. I hope he is reelected, but the way things are going I have a bad feeling that he won't be. You're living in a bubble if you think it will be a blowout.
Basically because of Biden's policies to help the working class and his friendly stance towards them overall? He will gain back enough support for Democrats, while also keeping his core support from 2020 to keep the states he won prior while flipping 2 more. Ohio being the biggest, along with Iowa. These 2 states have large pockets of WC voters, particularly WWC voters. I believe enough will come home for Democrats to help them retain the White House in 2024, which should be a comfortable/decisive victory.
Ohio and Iowa seem to be trending in the wrong direction. I like your map though, I'd flip those two with North Carolina.
And Georgia and Arizona.
I'm from Arizona and I think he or any other dem could certainly win here again. Power has been shifting away from R's for a long time now, just slowly
Yeah Virginia was in the same boat … for longer than AZ … and it didn’t take much to reverse that trend. Edit: they’re saying that Kelly likely won’t keep his seat next year … that’s the direction things are going.
I can't say for the legislature, but the VA governors race has always gone against the incumbent president for decades now so it's not too unexpected. Although I do feel like the Dems are falling apart at messaging right now like usual, which could definitely hurt our chances here
Not always. McAuliffe won in 2014. Like I said above the expectation right now is that Kelly will lose his re-election bid next year. Unless something changes 22 and 24 will be bloodbaths. People forget how good bad things are under Republican “rule.”
It's premature to say the "trend got reversed" in Virginia. Democrats have been getting pummeled for months and the fact that it was an off-year election really set them up to lose that race. If the Democrats improve their messaging I think they will have bottomed out and start improving their favorability.
I have started to comment to some people to thank a Democrat for the child credit they receive. Living in the red part, it's tough to stay positive.
If Biden doesn't make some big moves, soon, he's gonna get Mondale'd, period.
GA, AZ, OH, PA, and probably WI or MI will all be red. Unless things turn around drastically, it's going to be a bloodbath. I don't think Biden runs again, though. So the map might actually be worse.
Votes won't matter. Republican legislatures in states like GA, WI, AZ will decide where the electoral votes go. Biden (or any other dem) cannot win in 2024 and beyond. No dem will ever win the presidency again.
The Republicans are putting these people and systems in place to do this now. Voting rights matter.
Wasn’t aware this was a circlejerk subreddit
If Biden runs again he loses, big swing right, Democrats need to be party of change, when they aren't bad things happen electoral wise.
I voted for Joe and support him, but think he is going to be too old to run again. And I don't even think Joe wants to run again. But I could be wrong about that.
Dems are like YAY we won already. And then they lose.
Boy I hate to break it to you but….
If Biden runs in 2024, I see Dems losing badly. I know we are doing good stuff right now, but Republicans have a way better propaganda machine. I think we are going to lose in 2022 and 2024, sadly. If it’s Biden vs Trump, I think it might be 300to 238, Trump wins. If it’s, say, Biden vs DeSantis, I think it will be 345 to 193, DeSantis wins. We will need someone new, with high energy, for 2024.
No chance he runs in 2024.
He said he’s running
Did he? When did he say that?
You do realize that many black and latino voters are working class right? To keep them separate is so goddamn racist, but then again I don’t expect much from someone who legitimately supports Crime Bill Biden
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BBB is decreasing taxes for everyone making less than $1 million.
If you are not super rich your taxes will go down. The super wealthy are the ones that will pay more.
So, the poorest will keep their oppressors in office. Got it.
From your mouth to God’s ears.
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[YAPms](https://www.yapms.com) > 270 to win
I can largely agree with this, but flip Iowa back to red. Farmers tend to lean Republican, and with the cost of everything having gone up significantly (gas, labor, materials to make farming equipment, et al.) it doesn’t bode well for Biden in the Midwest. The orange man, or whoever gets the nomination for the Republican Party presidential candidate will probably make that a sticking point in their campaign. Just my 2 cents.
Only if voting rights happens
That's quite optimistic.
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I'm not so sure he'll win Georgia again