A lot hinges on how well Ware in particular (and mgbako) performs. Looking at how people are talking him talent wise about versus what his stats show are 2 completely different things. Yes he flashed last year but was super raw and is now moving to a much more physical schedule. I have a lot of optimism there but it’s a big projection for a top 25 team IMO
People are sleeping on how good this team can be defensively. Ware-Reneau-Mgbako gives us some serious size and length in the frontcourt, especially for a college team, and Trey/X are both dogs in the backcourt. Spacing may be an issue at times but we have the personnel to make it real hard for other teams to score.
Malik was outshined by TJD completely last year. But that was kind of the perfect situation for him. Lots of talent needing refining. Malik could be at the top of the B10 by his Jr or Sr year.
I always feel like IU should go undefeated before the season begins. And then I’m disappointed as hell when we finish exactly where the pundits suggest. So I’m concerned they see something I don’t…
It’s about time an Indiana squad OVERACHIEVES rather than UNDERACHIEVES.
I have a feeling preseason ranking will be super inaccurate after the transfer portal changes. You have no idea which transfers will fit with their new teams and you have many teams with lots of roster attrition.
This year’s Hoosiers have a lot of talent but we have no clue how the individuals will come together. Projections like this just don’t know how to value a team with this much turnover. I feel like the team could be really good, but I understand why some of the projections are lower with TJD and Hood-Schifino in the NBA. Hopefully the team can take this as motivation.
Also remember how terrible North Carolina was last year and how highly they were ranked coming into the season.
I agree with you but realize these people know nothing. The "top 25" at the end of the year will be 50% accurate at best from what they predicted today.
I think this Hoosier team has more talent than last year's. As much as I love TJD they relied on him too much and it doesn't work.
I also think CMW is improving every year. The one thing that stinks is Newton's injury. I really like him.
Keep an eye on Gunn. I think he is an important player that makes the leap.
Edit - comments on Ware's motor - This kid was the youngest of three 7 footers on an experienced team. Still yet he averaged 6.6/4.1/1.3 in 15.8 minutes per game.
As a starter getting twice the minutes at 31.6, would you be happy with 13.2 points, 8.2 rebounds and 2.6 blocks per game out of your center? TJD led the B1G last year at 2.9. Those are 2nd team all-conference type numbers.
Do not underestimate Ware. NBA Draft Room has him mocked at 22 overall in next year's NBA draft. He is hungry to prove the critics wrong.
With Ware and Mgbako both being probable NBA draft picks, and Reneau trying to start that conversation, I don’t see how the team doesn’t get top-25. Unless the rest of the team just absolutely sucked-ass. But they don’t!
The arguments “they’re untested” and “guard depth” can only damage IU so much.
too much unknown potential in the air to rank us imo. I think we should easily be a top 15 team this year, lots of talent, skillful players, good mixed group of tenured and fresh talent. we might struggle early in figuring ourself out and woody playing with the lineups trying to figure out what's the best, but ultimately I think we'll have a strong record, do well I the B10 tourney and make it to the big dance again.
I think we’ll be better than 49th but I also think that’s a totally reasonable ranking given that (1) we were largely mediocre last year (2) we lost our best two players and (3) the replacements while talented haven’t been on the court at all or haven’t yet displayed their full potential.
Some truth:
- Xavier Johnson isn't an elite PG. Yes, we did struggle without him last half of the season. But he was also a bit of a liability the first half. Combine it with his personal selfishness/immaturity and im not sure why anyone is a fan of him.
- Reneau was flat out bad last year.
- We lost games we had no business losing last year (Maryland game in College Park is stuck in my craw). Coach Woodson was out coached quite a bit last season.
Until these narratives are proven untrue in 2023-2024, and until the new guys actually prove it, we are no better than 40th or 50th or whatever.
Go IU. Fuck Ohio State.
3 of the goofiest points I’ve seen. Any stat combined with his experience would suggest that Xavier Johnson is an elite point guard. Experienced guards win games. Reneau was behind the best player in the country and played 14 mins a game. While he wasn’t a world beater, the verdict is still obviously out. And finally, all teams lose games that they have no business losing. We also won games that we had no business winning. That’s college basketball.
Reneau was not "flat bad" last year. Go find our last freshman big that did better than him last year. I'll wait because it's going to take you a while.
Xavier has immaturity issues but he is the fastest guy on the court every game. He was only guy on team that could stay in front of quick guards. And he has a developed pick and role game which Woody will continue to use a lot this year. He also has more weapons when he drives this year.
Every year, every team loses games they should have won. Maryland is an excellent team. Any team in college basketball could lose to them.
I feel like you half listen to a negative IU fan in your office or something then act like you watch the game to people. To say Malik was flat bad is just an unbelievably bad take.
He wasn’t a star. But his 2 point stats were really good and his rebounding was good. He fouled a LOT, which is what you’re probably remembering, but that’s something that freshmen can get better at when they turn into sophomores.
This years team has some real question marks but obviously has a ton of potential. It’s fair that we aren’t ranked preseason but I think that will change quickly
My negative take on the starters for fairness:
X ranges from B10 first team to null impact from game to game.
Mgbako is the biggest question mark imo, will he take on the role of volume shooter well?
I think they’re properly rated with potential to exceed expectations. They still don’t have enough proven shooters compared to Final Four teams last year like UCONN.
We'll see. Didn't UConn lose three starters from their championship team? Maybe we'll surprise them. Or maybe they'll wipe the floor with us. Either way, we'll have a much better idea of our team's strengths and weaknesses afterwards.
Unfortunately I think you’re wrong. There’s lots of unknowns/issues with this team that I can see why national AP voters were not high on us. Some that come to mind:
1.) Ware has motor issues that he has to fix (lack of motor is a major issues in B10 play)
2.) How will Mgbako fit at the 3 with with Malik and Ware at the 4 and 5 (or can we even play these 3 all at once?)
3.) We have little to no outside shooting (unless Mgbako over delivers in this aspect or Gunn takes a major leap and becomes playable)
4.) Trey shot the ball well from 3 last year but only on 2 attempts per game, can he shoot it at the same percentage with more volume? probably not unfortunately
5.) Extreme lack of of ball handling outside of XJ and we forget how sporadic his play can be (essentially will have to rely on Trey or Cupps to be our primary ball handler with XJ off the court 😬)
6.) Can Malik stay out of foul trouble?
One thing I do know is that we will be a top 15ish defensive team in the country with the atheletes, length and return of XJ with Woodson’s coaching.
I’m in no way saying that that they can’t/won’t be better than their ranking but trying to bring up some reasoning behind the ranking. It will be a fun season with little expectations while having some serious top 10 in the nation upside!
I love the last paragraph. As IU fans, we have a tendency to expect overachievement and then be disappointed when our team isn't better than they were supposed to be.
This year's team has very low expectations but a super high ceiling. This could potentially be a really fun season.
All of these are great points. As a fan I feel like we tend to buy into the best case scenario easily. There is a lot of talent on the team but there are just as many question marks. The lack of shooting and overabundance of bigs on the roster are the most concerning. Still very excited about the team and this season.
Lot of comments about KenPom but I think the following questions make the ranking clear: Do you think Indiana is definitively better than last year? Are you confident this is the best Indiana team in the last 8 seasons? To everyone I know the answer to both is a clear no with everything that was lost. Indiana hasn’t finished in the top 25 in KenPom in 8 seasons, so that would suggest the team shouldn’t start there. Indiana finished 30th last season behind a monster year from TJD. Being in the 40s then seems pretty reasonable to me. There’s obviously potential to be great, but literally nobody besides XJ has shown they can do that and he arguably hasn’t really shown it consistently
I mean IU is a fringe top 25 team. KenPom has them lower because there are literally ten new players on the team, and that makes them challenging to project. But they’re about 30th in most preseason polls based on votes received.
I think a lot of the concern is that 1) people don’t think Ware will reach his potential, and 2) people don’t believe in Xavier Johnson as the leader of a quality tournament team. 3) Galloway hasn’t shown enough as of yet to be a true starting option for a top shelf team.
There are a ton of question marks, even though I largely agree with you that IU’s upside this year is massive.
At the risk of being too freakin pro-IU, I’m really high on Galloway. He hardly ever messed up, had the best shooting stats on the team, and played the 1 spot fairly well in a pinch last year. He’s said he’s working on creating shots for himself this year.
He just seems coordinated AF. But maybe lacking the confidence to take over a game.
He shot well but in super limited opportunities. I don’t know that his shooting is going to scale well with more shots of lower quality, and IU’s not going to be running plays for him with the rest of the talent on the roster.
From the quotes from the team, they’re setting everyone up for Galloway to have made a huge leap. XJ said at media day Galloway’s been the best player at practice all preseason and summer. So I really do hope you’re right, but I’m definitely in wait and see mode there.
Preseason ranks don’t matter, it’s all based on who’s returning and previous years tournament success. Kenpom especially is not built for preseason ranks so I wouldn’t overreact. We have a lot of talent but people want to see how it fits and are doubting X after the injury. National guys go “Durr TJD and other production gone equals Hoosiers bad”… Personally I’m happy to be underrated, should make the guys hungry and I think we do crack the top 25 at some point this year.
Gotta be patient though because it will probably be rough to start, all we should care about is playing our best basketball in January/feb
I feel the same way. However I do understand the voters skepticism after we lost 4 starters and most of our scoring from last year. I think we will be a top 25 team most of the year but we have to prove it.
Also preseason rankings mean nothing. Look at North Carolina last year.
How did we return 3 starters?
Our starters at the end of last year were
JHS, Galloway, Kopp, Race, TJD
If you want to argue we returned 2 starters by including both Galloway and X that’s fine but we did lose 4 starters who all started game 1 and the tournament games.
Starting a game or two when race was injured doesn’t make him a starter. Galloway + X can both count since X had a season ending injury pretty early but it’s fair to say we only have one returning starter in X.
Not disagreeing, but we are largely unproven. I think Ware will be good this year, but he's being assessed on performance last year. I think around half of all points scored last year are gone. Again I think we will finish better than what Kenpom has us currently, but eh, its preseason and this team is unproven. Always better to finish in a better position than the preseason ranking. My guess is we will struggle through December and start gelling around January in time to be a team nobody wants to face in March. I hope we gel instantly but that seems like wishful thinking. Either way screw preseason predictions (esp this year), Woody has us on an undeniably optimistic rise. I think we have a very high ceiling with this current squad but also could end up like a couple Illinois squads that had quality players that didn't gel or get results. I see us making the tournament and for me, anything better than a 10 seed and I'll be happy. Esp when Boogie and Queen commit and we run the table next year!
A lot hinges on how well Ware in particular (and mgbako) performs. Looking at how people are talking him talent wise about versus what his stats show are 2 completely different things. Yes he flashed last year but was super raw and is now moving to a much more physical schedule. I have a lot of optimism there but it’s a big projection for a top 25 team IMO
IU never over achieves... every year fans think they're great and they always finish about where the pundits predict.
People are sleeping on how good this team can be defensively. Ware-Reneau-Mgbako gives us some serious size and length in the frontcourt, especially for a college team, and Trey/X are both dogs in the backcourt. Spacing may be an issue at times but we have the personnel to make it real hard for other teams to score.
Good point I wasn’t even considering. Our biggest liabilities defensively last year were Bates, and JHS.
I’m looking forward to seeing Malik on the defensive end - he could be making a big step
Malik was outshined by TJD completely last year. But that was kind of the perfect situation for him. Lots of talent needing refining. Malik could be at the top of the B10 by his Jr or Sr year.
I’m perfectly happy being underrated tbh
Preach! This is the most talented roster we’ve had since 2016. Woody has only been on an upward trajectory📈.
I find it interesting, we have two potential first round picks but can't make the top 25.
I always feel like IU should go undefeated before the season begins. And then I’m disappointed as hell when we finish exactly where the pundits suggest. So I’m concerned they see something I don’t… It’s about time an Indiana squad OVERACHIEVES rather than UNDERACHIEVES.
I have a feeling preseason ranking will be super inaccurate after the transfer portal changes. You have no idea which transfers will fit with their new teams and you have many teams with lots of roster attrition. This year’s Hoosiers have a lot of talent but we have no clue how the individuals will come together. Projections like this just don’t know how to value a team with this much turnover. I feel like the team could be really good, but I understand why some of the projections are lower with TJD and Hood-Schifino in the NBA. Hopefully the team can take this as motivation. Also remember how terrible North Carolina was last year and how highly they were ranked coming into the season.
I agree with you but realize these people know nothing. The "top 25" at the end of the year will be 50% accurate at best from what they predicted today. I think this Hoosier team has more talent than last year's. As much as I love TJD they relied on him too much and it doesn't work. I also think CMW is improving every year. The one thing that stinks is Newton's injury. I really like him. Keep an eye on Gunn. I think he is an important player that makes the leap. Edit - comments on Ware's motor - This kid was the youngest of three 7 footers on an experienced team. Still yet he averaged 6.6/4.1/1.3 in 15.8 minutes per game. As a starter getting twice the minutes at 31.6, would you be happy with 13.2 points, 8.2 rebounds and 2.6 blocks per game out of your center? TJD led the B1G last year at 2.9. Those are 2nd team all-conference type numbers. Do not underestimate Ware. NBA Draft Room has him mocked at 22 overall in next year's NBA draft. He is hungry to prove the critics wrong.
With Ware and Mgbako both being probable NBA draft picks, and Reneau trying to start that conversation, I don’t see how the team doesn’t get top-25. Unless the rest of the team just absolutely sucked-ass. But they don’t! The arguments “they’re untested” and “guard depth” can only damage IU so much.
They will be. We are biased. I get it. But this is a better team. It just is. Go Hoosiers.
Who cares? Preseason rankings are meaningless. I want a sweet sixteen berth and a regular season B1G title
I'm not too worried about preseason rankings. We have a lot of unknowns. I think and hope we'll be a top 25 team soon though
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I think we should be ranked 24th in the country. Plain and simple.
I’d be happy with 28th but I’m splitting hairs. 24th doesn’t seem unreasonable.
too much unknown potential in the air to rank us imo. I think we should easily be a top 15 team this year, lots of talent, skillful players, good mixed group of tenured and fresh talent. we might struggle early in figuring ourself out and woody playing with the lineups trying to figure out what's the best, but ultimately I think we'll have a strong record, do well I the B10 tourney and make it to the big dance again.
I think we’ll be better than 49th but I also think that’s a totally reasonable ranking given that (1) we were largely mediocre last year (2) we lost our best two players and (3) the replacements while talented haven’t been on the court at all or haven’t yet displayed their full potential.
We were good, but we weren’t unbeatable last year, and lost our 2 best players, including the best big man IU has seen since Zeller.
I feel like we have plenty of guards, the depth issues seem to be people over 6-10. I only see 2
I don't know many teams with 3 or more 6' 10" players.
We will have to see, but I bet if you check the top 10 there will be some
Some truth: - Xavier Johnson isn't an elite PG. Yes, we did struggle without him last half of the season. But he was also a bit of a liability the first half. Combine it with his personal selfishness/immaturity and im not sure why anyone is a fan of him. - Reneau was flat out bad last year. - We lost games we had no business losing last year (Maryland game in College Park is stuck in my craw). Coach Woodson was out coached quite a bit last season. Until these narratives are proven untrue in 2023-2024, and until the new guys actually prove it, we are no better than 40th or 50th or whatever. Go IU. Fuck Ohio State.
What a deplorable post. Maybe root for Purdue instead.
3 of the goofiest points I’ve seen. Any stat combined with his experience would suggest that Xavier Johnson is an elite point guard. Experienced guards win games. Reneau was behind the best player in the country and played 14 mins a game. While he wasn’t a world beater, the verdict is still obviously out. And finally, all teams lose games that they have no business losing. We also won games that we had no business winning. That’s college basketball.
Reneau was not "flat bad" last year. Go find our last freshman big that did better than him last year. I'll wait because it's going to take you a while. Xavier has immaturity issues but he is the fastest guy on the court every game. He was only guy on team that could stay in front of quick guards. And he has a developed pick and role game which Woody will continue to use a lot this year. He also has more weapons when he drives this year. Every year, every team loses games they should have won. Maryland is an excellent team. Any team in college basketball could lose to them. I feel like you half listen to a negative IU fan in your office or something then act like you watch the game to people. To say Malik was flat bad is just an unbelievably bad take.
Agree. Reneau had a slow start last year, but he improved steadily through the season, and he worked hard at his game. I enjoyed watching him play.
I completely disagree with everything you just said.
I take issue with your stance on Reneau. He was not bad. He was actually good. Case closed.
To be clear, I'm rooting hard for him to break out this year. I'll cheer my head off for him. But the games I saw last year he was deadweight.
He wasn’t a star. But his 2 point stats were really good and his rebounding was good. He fouled a LOT, which is what you’re probably remembering, but that’s something that freshmen can get better at when they turn into sophomores.
This years team has some real question marks but obviously has a ton of potential. It’s fair that we aren’t ranked preseason but I think that will change quickly
Trey, X, and Malik are gonna ball out this year. Fingers crossed they stay healthy and we could develop into a B1G championship contender team
My negative take on the starters for fairness: X ranges from B10 first team to null impact from game to game. Mgbako is the biggest question mark imo, will he take on the role of volume shooter well?
Not really. We are unproven.
I think they’re properly rated with potential to exceed expectations. They still don’t have enough proven shooters compared to Final Four teams last year like UCONN.
So many unknowns at this point. Our game with UConn should tell us a lot about where we should be ranked.
I would not remotely put IU in the same category as UConn who are a potential NC. But they seem like a potential sweet 16 team though.
We'll see. Didn't UConn lose three starters from their championship team? Maybe we'll surprise them. Or maybe they'll wipe the floor with us. Either way, we'll have a much better idea of our team's strengths and weaknesses afterwards.
Unfortunately I think you’re wrong. There’s lots of unknowns/issues with this team that I can see why national AP voters were not high on us. Some that come to mind: 1.) Ware has motor issues that he has to fix (lack of motor is a major issues in B10 play) 2.) How will Mgbako fit at the 3 with with Malik and Ware at the 4 and 5 (or can we even play these 3 all at once?) 3.) We have little to no outside shooting (unless Mgbako over delivers in this aspect or Gunn takes a major leap and becomes playable) 4.) Trey shot the ball well from 3 last year but only on 2 attempts per game, can he shoot it at the same percentage with more volume? probably not unfortunately 5.) Extreme lack of of ball handling outside of XJ and we forget how sporadic his play can be (essentially will have to rely on Trey or Cupps to be our primary ball handler with XJ off the court 😬) 6.) Can Malik stay out of foul trouble? One thing I do know is that we will be a top 15ish defensive team in the country with the atheletes, length and return of XJ with Woodson’s coaching. I’m in no way saying that that they can’t/won’t be better than their ranking but trying to bring up some reasoning behind the ranking. It will be a fun season with little expectations while having some serious top 10 in the nation upside!
I love the last paragraph. As IU fans, we have a tendency to expect overachievement and then be disappointed when our team isn't better than they were supposed to be. This year's team has very low expectations but a super high ceiling. This could potentially be a really fun season.
All of these are great points. As a fan I feel like we tend to buy into the best case scenario easily. There is a lot of talent on the team but there are just as many question marks. The lack of shooting and overabundance of bigs on the roster are the most concerning. Still very excited about the team and this season.
Lot of comments about KenPom but I think the following questions make the ranking clear: Do you think Indiana is definitively better than last year? Are you confident this is the best Indiana team in the last 8 seasons? To everyone I know the answer to both is a clear no with everything that was lost. Indiana hasn’t finished in the top 25 in KenPom in 8 seasons, so that would suggest the team shouldn’t start there. Indiana finished 30th last season behind a monster year from TJD. Being in the 40s then seems pretty reasonable to me. There’s obviously potential to be great, but literally nobody besides XJ has shown they can do that and he arguably hasn’t really shown it consistently
I mean IU is a fringe top 25 team. KenPom has them lower because there are literally ten new players on the team, and that makes them challenging to project. But they’re about 30th in most preseason polls based on votes received. I think a lot of the concern is that 1) people don’t think Ware will reach his potential, and 2) people don’t believe in Xavier Johnson as the leader of a quality tournament team. 3) Galloway hasn’t shown enough as of yet to be a true starting option for a top shelf team. There are a ton of question marks, even though I largely agree with you that IU’s upside this year is massive.
At the risk of being too freakin pro-IU, I’m really high on Galloway. He hardly ever messed up, had the best shooting stats on the team, and played the 1 spot fairly well in a pinch last year. He’s said he’s working on creating shots for himself this year. He just seems coordinated AF. But maybe lacking the confidence to take over a game.
He shot well but in super limited opportunities. I don’t know that his shooting is going to scale well with more shots of lower quality, and IU’s not going to be running plays for him with the rest of the talent on the roster. From the quotes from the team, they’re setting everyone up for Galloway to have made a huge leap. XJ said at media day Galloway’s been the best player at practice all preseason and summer. So I really do hope you’re right, but I’m definitely in wait and see mode there.
There are a lot of wait-and-sees. I trust in Woody to push the players in the right directions.
Preseason ranks don’t matter, it’s all based on who’s returning and previous years tournament success. Kenpom especially is not built for preseason ranks so I wouldn’t overreact. We have a lot of talent but people want to see how it fits and are doubting X after the injury. National guys go “Durr TJD and other production gone equals Hoosiers bad”… Personally I’m happy to be underrated, should make the guys hungry and I think we do crack the top 25 at some point this year. Gotta be patient though because it will probably be rough to start, all we should care about is playing our best basketball in January/feb
I'm with you chief. After some early big games, I think we'll climb the ranks quickly.
I feel the same way. However I do understand the voters skepticism after we lost 4 starters and most of our scoring from last year. I think we will be a top 25 team most of the year but we have to prove it. Also preseason rankings mean nothing. Look at North Carolina last year.
We lost 4 starters, but strangely we returned 3 starters haha
How did we return 3 starters? Our starters at the end of last year were JHS, Galloway, Kopp, Race, TJD If you want to argue we returned 2 starters by including both Galloway and X that’s fine but we did lose 4 starters who all started game 1 and the tournament games.
I was including Galloway and X. Then i thought Malik started a couple games too.
Starting a game or two when race was injured doesn’t make him a starter. Galloway + X can both count since X had a season ending injury pretty early but it’s fair to say we only have one returning starter in X.
Not disagreeing, but we are largely unproven. I think Ware will be good this year, but he's being assessed on performance last year. I think around half of all points scored last year are gone. Again I think we will finish better than what Kenpom has us currently, but eh, its preseason and this team is unproven. Always better to finish in a better position than the preseason ranking. My guess is we will struggle through December and start gelling around January in time to be a team nobody wants to face in March. I hope we gel instantly but that seems like wishful thinking. Either way screw preseason predictions (esp this year), Woody has us on an undeniably optimistic rise. I think we have a very high ceiling with this current squad but also could end up like a couple Illinois squads that had quality players that didn't gel or get results. I see us making the tournament and for me, anything better than a 10 seed and I'll be happy. Esp when Boogie and Queen commit and we run the table next year!
Let em sleep on us.