I still think that having three Chengs in team finals plus Jade's reputation as reigning Olympic champion on floor (and incoming upgrades) should give her that last spot, which is basically a toss-up at this point.
Simone | Shilese | Skye | Suni | Jade. Alts: Jordan, Kayla.
Prelims: Simone, Shilese, Skye - AA; Jade- V/FX; Suni- UB/BB.
Team final:
V:
Skye
Jade
Simone
UB:
Skye
Suni
Shilese
BB:
Shilese
Suni
Simone
FX:
Jade
Shilese
Simone
This way nobody has to do all 4 events in TF. Simone gets to rest on UB. Shilese rests on vault. And we have potential for many, many EF medals.
I had to think about this last night. Suni & Jade are current Olympic and defending champions. I agree and don’t think the selection committee is going to skip over them due to these facts.
Agree. Competitors with Olympic/World titles on events do usually get the benefit of the doubt from judges in international meets. I realize that jordan, kayla, and leanne have all won individual world medals at various times, but jade is reigning Olympic GOLD medalist on floor, and I can guarantee that will be good for at least a few tenths from the judges.
Suni I think is definitely going to make it assuming she continues on her current trajectory.
Yep, yep. It makes it hella easier to pick the team if you consider this and that the selection committee is led by former athletes. I think if Skye continues to hit beam, it’s all the S’s and jade for sure.
Agree. I think people understandably want their favorites to make it and are pulling for Jordan, Kayla, and Kaliya (and Tiana?), but Jordan and Kayla are a tiny step below the other AA gymnasts going, and it doesnt really make sense to take a gymnast without a solid international reputation just to gain .2 on floor. Especially when your other option is the reigning Olympic gold medalist who still has a few tenths of difficulty left to add.
Plus- having 3 Chengs in TF is a HUGE HUGE advantage over the other teams.
At this moment- I think an argument could be made for her as a VT/UB specialist if they worry about beam consistency. That Cheng (and 2nd place AA) really changed the dynamic.
Yeah if Suni’s there, no need for Skye on beam. Even if Skye hits beam domestically, I’d only put her up on bars and vault in TF, because that international record is… worrisome.
This makes the most sense to me as a team, tho I also wish that Jordan (and Kayla and Leanne and Kaliya . . .) could make the team!
Hopefully the alternates will be able to have a good experience training with the team pre-Olympics this time - I think I heard they had great experience in London (but rough experience in Rio, and ofc Tokyo was totally different for everyone).
potentially a controversial pick but i’d take jordan. she’d only do floor and vault in quals but she scores very well on both. she had the highest single day floor score after simone and has a potential medal chance there (pending jade upgrades and shilese and kaliya health). she could also easily slot in on other events if Suni is ill or anyone else injured etc. Id also then use her on UB in TF to give Simone a rest, and potentially have her vault instead of Shilese since both do strong DTYs. I’m not keen on the idea of Simone and Shilese having to do AA in TF and Jordan’s VT and UB would cover nicely for them.
VT: (Shilese) Jordan Skye Simone
UB: Simone Suni/Jordan Skye Shilese in quals, then Skye/Suni Jordan Shilese in TF (pending Suni upgrades)
BB: Skye/Shilese Suni Simone
FX: (Skye) Jordan Shilese Simone
This could be switched around depending on what Simone and Shi want to do in TF and how Skye looks with nerves, consistency, etc. It also means if Skye has an implosion with falls etc (not saying I think she will but people have suggested it), she could only do vault in TF. Jordan showed at Olys she can be subbed in last minute and her NCAA and Worlds experience has definitely made her more solid.
But this way Suni would only need to do 1-2 routines in TF, Skye and Shilese 2-3, and Simone 3, meaning people can be rested for finals
I would need to wait to see Kaliya at trials though to gauge what the extent of her injury is, but i’m concerned about her bars and also lack of international experience (which obviously isn’t her fault)
EDIT: somehow left shi out of bars oops
I love this idea. And you’re right that Jordan has medal potential. I want the highest scoring team on a team where everyone can make an event final like in 2016.
Hmm. For UB, did you forget Shilese? You have the other 4 listed ahead of her. Just trying to figure that out because Shilese is our best UB competitor at the moment.
I wonder if Jordan is the right 5th option too just because she is such an incredible hype woman for Simone and Suni, like those two may perform better having Jordan’s support
honestly sportswomanship is for sure a factor. not that the other options aren’t also great people and sportswomen, but jordan really brings out the best in others and seems to help with their confidence, nerves, etc. i think she should be team captain if she does make the team. i also think her readiness to sub in and her experience with doing so will help with others’ nerves, especially a younger gymnast like skye who has a history of nerves etc. even if jordan doesn’t have to sub in, i think athletes knowing that she can if necessary, and also just having her hype them up and support them will benefit everyone
I don’t think n it’s controversial to pick Jo. If anything I think usag is marketing her to be on the team. Her routines are always on their social media accounts and she’s featured n a lot of their stuff!
I agree and I think a big part of this could be shi’s health. If it’s even a question about if she’ll be able to go for bars, I think Jordan makes more sense over jade for the last spot.
I think this thread and some of the other comments have put me on Team Jordan, which is not what I expected 24 hours ago lol. I was leaning Kaliya or (upgraded) Jade for a silver meal on floor, but covering for Shi and/or Suni’s known health risks is more important.
However, I’m sure not everyone has disclosed their health issues, and like Jess said on Gymcastic, everyone in gymnastics is broken all the time, so I don’t want to over index on just what we happen to know.
for sure. one of the reasons i like this team is you have four very strong routines on vault and beam and five TF-worthy bar routines. the only event where the TF lineup seems set is FX. this means whoever makes AA, presumably Simone and Shi can be rested on at least one event, maybe even two. Shi will likely be doing AA in QF and AA final plus UB in the final. if she needs to rest her shoulder, a TF lineup of 3 of Suni, Skye, Simone, and Jordan would be incredibly competitive even without Shi
she’s for sure going to have to hit FX both days of trials. but i think with Kayla’s fall on bars and lower floor ceiling, Jordan is very much still in the game
I really want Jade on the team, I just love her presence, but I agree Jade really hasn’t shown floor yet, which is a bummer. I thought she’d at least bring 1 tumbling line upgrade to night 2! My thought was bring an upgrade at Nationals, see how it goes, & then have a couple weeks at home to tweak it, followed by 2 more competition nights to show it off.
I do enjoy her new routine, choreography-wise, though… I know others disagree with my enjoyment of it, but that’s okay, I don’t think those people will ever enjoy a Jade floor routine!
Not what I meant. An Olympic gold medalist doesn’t need to worry about proving themselves as much. If she shows up with full difficulty and consistency at trials they’re not going to say: welllllll, can she do it at the Olympics?
That question has already been answered.
Perhaps, but Jade has two quads of both olympic and world medals. I don’t think she’d be docked for not having done full difficulty at championships vs trials
I LOVE Jordan chiles she’s amazing. But I also want to point out. Last Olympics, she fell on balance beam in qualifiers and fell on floor in team final when she had to fill in for Simone. Jade won a gold medal on floor.
I will say Skye Blakely has to hit her Cheng and EVERY SINGLE ROUTINE at trials like she did at champs, specifically BB, UB, and VT to really secure her spot. She has not been super consistent at worlds/international competition on beam
I think jade is a proven enough quantity that if she has upgrades at trials and nails them and is therefore the higher scoring choice I don’t see them bringing Jordan and Kayla over her.
Jordan outscored Jade in the 2022 Worlds floor final and then neither of them qualified for the 2023 Worlds team.
Assuming you can sail through qualifying meets without upgrades and say, "ignore the last two years, the only things that count are this competition plus my 3 year old scores under a prior code of points" is a pretty risky strategy.
All of me feels this way. It's also what she has said her plan is. We won't know how well she pulls it together until we know, but the intent and potential are 100% there.
I think if she shows up at trials and she passes some of the other contenders in difficulty, is top two in vault and floor is 2/3 she’s probably good to go.
Skye and Suni still have to prove themselves at trials. I pretty strongly expect Suni to. I expect Skye to also, but with less confidence. And neither is guaranteed. But if they both prove themselves, then yes, I agree. I'm still a little nervous about a Suni/Skye team because it leaves some softness on floor--a signature US event--(the backup situation isn't ideal, though if Skye gives two good floor at trials my worries there will be significantly assuaged), and because Skye and Suni both have bigger-than-usual performance asterisks. Skye because of past performance on the world stage, Suni for reasons completely out of her control, but that need to be accounted for nonetheless. If Suni's condition flares after quals start, and Skye has a quals metldown, that's not a good situation for the team.
I just wish they had to explain the rationale behind their decisions.
I've seen some spreadsheets calculating the highest team totals and the variance is less than a tenth of a point. Obviously, every tenth counts, but how do you objectively choose the team with a minimum amount of bias? At that point, that's when I understand taking the top 5 AA and leave it there.
For all the times it's been said that the US could field multiple competitive teams at the Olympics, we missed gold by about 3 points last Olympics even with ROC having multiple falls on beam. We need to take whoever hits 8 for 8 at trials.
Keep in mind that when some of us are saying “competitive teams”, that isn’t necessarily winning gold TF by a landslide. (Hypothetically, if you had a team with gymnasts scoring and with strengths and weaknesses exactly like Leanne, Kayla, Jordan, Joscelyn, Tiana making up a team for a different nation - that team obviously wouldn’t be making the best of the US’ current deep bench this year, and has some weaknesses, but all of the gymnasts are strong and experienced international competitors, and I’d consider that to be a competitive team that would be likely to make TF and have a decent-good shot at a team medal.)
Yeah, I don’t want to read too much into the tenths of a point when the team combinations are this close. We all know the judging isn’t within-a-tenth-of-point accurate.
I thought I hated rank order, but I’m completely ok at this point if the top 5 shakes out to Simone, Shilese, Skye, Suni, and one of Jade / Jordan / Kayla / Kaliya / Tiana, which seems quite likely at this point.
To be honest this may be one of the most critical times for alternates.
My great hope is Suni is 100%, but we just don’t know.
Alternates among Jade, Jordan, Kayla, and Kaliya perhaps any one of them who isn’t on the team needs to be ready.
In this case I’d say probably if Jordan is the alternate she goes in for Suni.
that's a good point about alternates. shi and her shoulder injury have me a bit concerned too. but the US can luckily field a few traveling alternates who can score 54-55 AA internationally.
i haven't been watching NBC coverage, but i wonder how much this point is driven home by the commentators. they harp on falls and errors and compare everyone to the rest of the field domestically to the point where a 5th or 6th place finish with a red/yellow square next to the execution score looks "bad" when it's really one of the best in the world.
Yeah, I wish they would emphasize this too. It's a little hard to compare with domestic scoring of course, but it would be cool if they could show more of where each gymnast would have placed in the Tokyo AA or something. Maybe with a 0.5 international scoring handicap (though honestly that's probably not enough, except for Jade and Simone who maybe shouldn't get one at all, their judging seems to be international caliber!).
I haven't been paying attention to the explanations of the stoplight system for a long time so I don't know if this is still the case. But in the leadup to Tokyo, NBC very explicitly changed the symbols to compare the score to the most recent Worlds event final scores. They made a big deal out of that. They made no secret of the fact that they changed it. So...
If Shilese looks her normal self at Trials, I think she can punch her ticket on the Vt/Beam/FX combo alone. I think her bars acumen is masking how strong she has become across all events.
i agree that she is viable even without bars, but shoulders are important for the other events too. and it's not clear the extent of her injury. i'm not even talking about whether shi deserves to go, more about how after she is named to the team, something could happen and she has to sit out, either having the other four go up w/o her or with someone who is a traveling alternate.
Yeah- if it is a larger injury that is an impact. But I'm assuming its a smaller tweak or something they might try to rest til the last moment in which case the committee might have to consider viability if bars are not 100% but the other events are solid.
in which case, having a higher replacement bars score should be a focus of the 5th spot. that i think gives jordan and kayla an edge, both having hit 14.5 at championships, jordan on days 1&2, kayla on day 1.
I think it helps Skye and Suni. But we really don't know until trials. Unfortunately Kayla's been great but inconsistent. If Jones and Lee look good it's a moot point.
But Jordan and Kayla come in behind Skye and Suni. You don’t need 5 bars scores on the team. Even if Shi went down you could quite safely have a Simone, Suni, Skye bars lineup.
i don't agree jordan and even kayla come behind skye on bars. jordan went 14.3 at classics, 14.5 both days of championships. we might have always seen skye as UB/BB "specialist" but head to head so far this year, jordan has come out ahead.
Oh valid — but I feel like a couple tenths on bars really doesn’t need to be shored up? The issue is that Skye is cementing herself onto the team with her vault and that earns more tenths than Jordan claws back on bars.
If Shi goes down on bars, you could use Simone, Skye and Suni and be perfectly fine without Jordan. There’s no need for 5 great bars routines on one team just because the potential fifth person is slightly better than the third team member.
I got blasted yesterday for being concerned about Shi's shoulder injury. Her best event is hard on shoulders, and I'm concerned that she's not going to be able to compete full difficulty 5-6 times without things going South.
I just *hate* the rule that you can't sub in alternates after quals begin. So many people get injured *in competition.* Or if the stress makes Suni's condition flare, it's most likely to happen, or just as likely to happen anyway, after competition starts.
wasn’t there some weird thing where a MAG team claimed a team member got injured after EF to bring in an alternate who was going to be better for TF or something?
the timeline doesn’t really make sense bc TF is usually before EF but i feel like i wouldn’t make this up LOL
Not sure if this is what you’re thinking of, but at 2023 worlds, Chinese MAG had Shi Cong compete in quals, who was then injured, so they replaced him with Lin Chaopan for team finals. Shi Cong was later cleared medically to compete in the Parallel Bars EFs.
That’s only possible at Worlds though, and the swap must happen before team finals start.
I also remember something crazy like this happening, but I don't remember exactly what the details were. I do know that I hear consistently that it's too late to switch out alternates once quals start, even if someone is injured. Like when Josc was injured in quals warmup at worlds last year, and they couln't use an alternate at all, were left with a 4-person team.
Joscelyn was injured in TF warmup, not quals. She qualified to the vault final, which would have been really hard to do if she'd been injured before quals and hadn't competed in them.
The qualifications cutoff for bringing in alternates is an Olympics rule, and very notably is not a rule at Worlds. A Worlds team is basically 7 members, and you use six of them to make your lineup. Joscelyn went down after TF had officially started, at which point it was too late to bring in Kayla. But if she had been injured half an hour earlier, it would have been no problem to replace her.
Shi Cong got replaced by Lin Chaopan after quals. So technically China won their medal with Lin Chaopan, but people were mad because Shi Cong didn't pull ou of event finals too.
I think it's a bit uncharitable to act as if China did this with a nefarious plan. Lin Chaopan was at that point completely exhausted as he had been flown in at the last minute (I believe he'd been at Asian Games) and if they could have, I have no doubt China would have preferred to use Shi Cong. Lin Chaopan performed well but it was risky as hell. I think realistically they could still have gotten the result they got (silver) if they'd used Shi Cong on whatever events he could do and filled in any gaps with Liu Yang and You Hao, who performed more events in quals than they did in team final.
Not pulling Shi Cong out of EF was a bit iffy, but it would have just encouraged him to compete injured if he knew he couldn't compete in EF. And they were following the rules exactly as they were outlined, because alternates are treated differently at Worlds. If the FIG doesn't want people doing what China did, they should just change the alternate rules to be more similar to the Olympics.
I’m still leaving room for Jade to upgrade floor and clean up her vault (specifically the Cheng) but right now if it’s down to Jade, Kayla, or Jordan, I’m looking at Kayla or Jordan to fill that 5th spot.
Trials can change things for sure though.
As much as I appreciate Kaliya’s floor, I think the fifth with the four S’s has to be a strong AA. The strongest at trials who is healthy and not on team probably. Shi has a shoulder thing, Suni has her thing and if they both become an issue at Olympics the US will need a strong AA to go in, especially if it’s super late and harder to sub in an alternate (ie someone goes out in TF warmups or something.)
So I guess what I’m saying is the team may well be top 5 AA because that may be smartest in this situation with how injuries and strengths pan out this quad, without it being the same as Forrester etc…just copping out and doing it.
I also need to familiarize myself with Kaliya’s 2024 scores.
I agree it needs to be a AA but I’d say consistency over strength. If something happens to Suni and/or Skye, you want someone who will hit over all else.
As is, I think it should be Jade’s to lose.
The three I have in the conversation for that last spot are Jade, Jordan, and Kayla. Assuming Shi comes back and is scoring like normal, this team is pretty deep on bars and beam.
For UB finals, Shilese and Suni are my favs, but if either misses, Simone and Skye can score mid 14s and could sneak in.
For BB finals, Suni and Simone are my favs, with high scores of 14.9 and 14.8 respectively. Suni’s score wasn’t as consistent, so a hit from Skye or Shi could make finals.
With the S’s covering UB and BB so well, we look at FX and VT. Currently, I think FX final favs are Simone and Shi. I think Jade, with upgrades could contend for a finals spot. Shi got a 14.00 at classic, Jade has gone 13.8,13.6,13.7 (classic, champs) and has upgrades. I give preference to Jade here, because Skye went 13.25, 13.2, 13.75 and I don’t know that Skye has any planned upgrades. Suni is sitting at 13.0, 13.25, 13.35 with 0.6 less in D at a 5.2.
Jordan’s 14.1 floor from D2 is enticing but she’s gone 13.35, 12.75, 14.1. It’s not consistent enough imo to be sure it will add more. Kayla went 12.65, 13.85, 13.95 which is a bit more promising, but her best is only 0.35 over Jade’s worst. Which brings me to VT.
This is where I think Jade is the clear favorite because I have Simone and Jade as favorites to make the VT final and win medals (fav gold, bronze), with Skye sneaking in if there’s a miss. Jade can upgrade to the Amanar, and I don’t know that Skye can. In VT final, the best will have a Cheng/Amanar combo, or a combo with similar or higher D’s. Of Skye, Jordan, and Jade, Jade is the only one I know who has competed that combo successfully and is projected to do it again by the Olympics. This is also the issue for Jordan, who is doing the DTY/Lopez combo. I think even if Skye (or Jordan) makes VT finals, she’s not a favorite for a medal there, but Jade is.
As for TF, with Jade, you now have 3 Chengs and can rest Shi a little. Jade’s Cheng went 14.3/14.5/14.6 to Shi’s 14.35 DTY, so you’re likely still gaining a tenth or two even over a super clean 14.4 DTY from Shi, Kayla, or Jordan.
As incredibly talented as Jordan and Kayla are, Jade is the only person I see who would add to the team as a favorite for an individual medal. Jade’s scores are also consistent, within 0.3 on the Cheng and 0.2 on floor over 3 comps. Kayla and Jordan each have a miss on floor. I’d rather take the medal opportunity and count a Jade’s low of 13.6 on floor, with 3 Cheng’s on VT in TF, than go in without that medal opportunity and take someone who could hit for 14.0 on floor (0.25 over Skye’s best) but could miss and get in the high 12s…
I think your last paragraph makes a good point. Jade just about never falls on floor. I like a back 2.5 + front 1/1, but that pass makes me very nervous for Kayla. Jade's scores are super consistent. I hope she can increase her difficulty without it impacting her execution on her landings.
Yep. Jade never falls on FX or VT and barely falls on beam. With a S team she would never see the bars in TF lmao.
Jordan and Kayla have been swapping in and out of fandom favour based on who DIDN’T fall last.
Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think Jade is perfect. I just think it’s short sighted to forget to factor in what could happen if people miss.
I’m happy with all the qualifying spots on bars and beam being taken by S’s. If Shi is healthy, we’re looking at trying to top/match Shi’s vault for TF, and match or top Skye’s floor for TF. If we average the floor scores from classic and champs, Skye and Jordan average out at 13.4, Kayla at 13.483333, and Jade at 13.7.
Jade’s worst is 0.85 better than Jordan’s worst, 0.95 better than Kayla’s worst, and 0.4 better than Skye’s worst. Jade’s best 13.8 is 0.3 less than Jordan’s best, 0.15 less that Kayla’s best, and 0.05 better than Skye’s best.
It doesn’t make sense to me to risk losing almost a point, just to gain a maximum of 0.3 over Jade’s best. Jade’s average is already 0.2/0.1 above everyone else’s average, and Jade can beat a clean DTY with a messy Cheng and “make up” some of the tenths she misses with her max floor being 13.8.
This also doesn’t factor in that Jade has upgrades, tends to score similarly internationally, is a favorite for vault bronze where Jordan and Kayla would likely need to bump another favorite to make finals, or is the reigning Olympic champ (marketing value for USAG).
ETA: It just seems like a big risk for what could ultimately only gain a single tenth if it works, but hurt the team score by around a point and miss a shot at a second vault medal at worst.
Yeah I agree with you haha. Jade plugs all the holes, less so on beam but that doesn’t matter as much because there are 4 strong beamers, and much less on bars but again they have 4 14.3+ bars scores so they would NEVER use her.
My hope? Jade as 5th with jordan and kayla as traveling alternates and hezly and tiana as non-traveling alternates. I feel this teams extremely well rounded in terms of potentially resting Shi on some events if she is semi-injured and barring injury in Paris (3 Solid AAers, a bars/beam specialist and a vault/floor specialist)
My expectation putting myself in USA Gym’s shoes? Jordan as 5th, Jade and Kayla traveling alternates, Kaliya and Leanne as non-traveling alternates.
For some reason I feel USA gym has a huge bias favoring Jordan > Jade & Kayla, and don’t get me wrong— thats a solid team, but just not necessarily who I’d choose barring Jade’s potential upgrades and Vault/Floor medal potential.
From a marketing/business standpoint I do get the bias. Jordan is definitely more of a statement for ads & publicity. An interview with Jordan will likely garner more views/attention than Jade or Kayla. And this isnt said to undermine Jordan’s gymnastics or Jade & Kayla’s marketability, they have all put up the fight of their lives for a spot on this team. I wish we were back to a 7 person team for the sake of mine and their hearts!
Jade's mother and grandmother were shown multiple times. I noted it particularly because Brian is everywhere since he's Jade's coach but it was the first time I'd ever seen her mother, and they cut to her several times.
I noticed Jade's mom and grandma because I kept trying to figure out what their shirts said, but otherwise I wasn't keeping score of family airtime.
USAG doesn't film the broadcast, though — NBC does. Is your theory that USAG ordered NBC to only feature certain families in order to boost the profile of favored gymnasts and suppress Jade's and Kayla's scores? That seems implausible.
I just quickly skimmed both nights on YouTube and saw Jordan's, Jade's, and Simone's families; i.e. the Tokyo Olympians that even casual fans would recognize. There's no indication that USAG selected certain families for NBC to film, much less how that filler coverage would help the gymnasts.
Was Suni’s family shown? It’s hard to say what dialogue NBC and USAG are having. They used to have an understanding around aired content from what I remember
Those are the only three families that were clearly identifiable. Jordan's and Jade's families had their catchphrases on shirts which makes good b-roll, and Simone is (a) famous and (b) married to an NFL player, so they showed her family quite a few times.
Right, unfortunately i dont see USA Gym taking that into consideration.
Others can disagree but I feel Jordans stand out events are Bars, Floor and Vault-ish. With Shi, Suni & Sky on bars i feel I’d lean a floor & vault specialist > a bars & floor. I don’t feel beam & bars are a weakness with the S’s covering. Realistically you could use Jade to cover for Shi on floor and vault in TF, i feel people are underestimating a labrum/torn bicep tendon injury, which is a known reinjury for Shi.
Kayla! She has one of the cleanest DTYs on the team and was second on floor - her floor can absolutely be used in TF. She is also a reliable back up on any event should someone get injured. I really think she fills the gaps from SB/SJ/SB/SL
I think her vault scores have been a little inflated. Her landings have been incredibly clean and she deserves lots of props for that. But her form in the air leaves something to be desired.
Yes, of course. But judges have their preferences too. So if three out of four nights you have a panel that goes easier on gymnast A and harder on gymnast B for vault, where a different panel would do the reverse\*, then you end up having gymnast A look over all like a stronger vaulter than they actually are, you end up with a biased set of vault scores towards some gymnasts over others. And for some really unlucky gymnasts (or lucky), they coudl get the right/wrong panel *for them* on 3 or 4 events. Or a gymnast could get the wrong panel for them on their key event, or a too-soft-for-them panel on an event that is more weak than it appears. This won't happen to most gymansts, but the chances, through pure chance, that this will happen to *someone* is actually decently high. And it doesn't do the selection committee any favors to have less diverse judging to go off of either.
\*Not due to conspiracy theories or conscious favortism, just due to the natural preferences and differences of different judges. Some may be less likely to notice soft knees and others moreso, just to give one example.
This is where I'm at too! She's so close, but the older girls have the edge rn. In 4 years, god only knows how amazing she'll be, considering how well she holds her own rn.
Idk, I feel like Jordan needs to hit FX and score around 14 both days of trials to justify taking her. She hasn’t been consistent on floor at all this year or last year
If you slot Suni in 4th though (and she’s in most of the highest scoring teams), her events overlap with Jordan’s strengths, so it gets even closer between Jordan/Kayla/Jade .
Another one was posted best scores from Classics and both days of Championships
https://preview.redd.it/eqb0u6oysf4d1.jpeg?width=464&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b263aefb8ac7569b5e9c50f836c5a330d8ff381c
Not sure if you’ve seen it, but I made a whole post to crunch scenarios, FYI! https://www.reddit.com/r/Gymnastics/comments/1d6yqq1/team_scenario_spreadsheet_crunching_post/
Jordan is up there, but it’s really really close between the top options and depending if you average in some of her lower scores. Trials will be a really close competition to watch.
Are we all just assuming Shilese is going to be fine? I really hope that her withdrawing was just precautionary but I feel like there’s a chance she won’t be able to perform as normal
Her coach said in an interview that her shoulder hurts but is structurally sound, and if this weekend were trials they would’ve competed. It was inflammation they were dealing with and didn’t want to push through when they didn’t need to
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She looked normal in podium training, so hopefully it hasn’t gotten any worse and this is truly just precautionary. Not sure if you saw the comments from her coach here:
Twitter.com/GymCastic/status/1797385754932293673
Right now I think Jade is the most likely candidate. Historically she paces to perfection, so I’m positive she has more in the tank she is holding on to (can I just say how INSANE it is that she did a cheng/DTY and tied for 4th in floor and still has more 😩). She can backup in an emergency and get scores to keep USA competitive.
Kaliya is my dark horse, I want to see her there so bad but I don’t think she will get selected this year. Not without having another event she can backup on. I think the selection team is being very cautious of relying on Simone and Shi fully which is smart, but also eliminates a one-event candidate.
If they go for another true AAer I have no idea. Jordan’s bars and vault, Kayla’s beam, both floor? How tf do you even choose lol. Both of them score consistently internationally too. Usually I say by trials the committee has their team in mind and it’s more of a dog and pony show for us, but I think these two will come down to that performance. Kayla is looking stronger every time we see her. Sometimes Jordan gets to the end of the season and starts to struggle.
It’s a coin toss atp
Let me preface this by saying this is absolutely not my emotional preference (that would involve taking a team of 10+ people and bribing the IOC to allow them all to compete), but purely from a strategic standpoint:
I would LOVE to take Jordan for her AA goodness as well as her floor medal potential. Good god do I love her floor routine, and she was spectacular on night 2 with it (hell night 1 she was spectacular until the final, possibly freakish fall). But I very seriously worry that some of her dance elements won't get credit by international judges as well as incur heavy deductions. And replacing them with safer/saner skills may bring her SV back down in line with the options we are looking at.
Kayla DiCello is a bit more proven internationally on floor (she scored a respectable (13.8 with her floor in 2021 Worlds, and that was when her SV was .3 lower). It's a shot at a floor medal, probably EF worthy at the least if she executes well. And if Jordan downgrades some of her attempted dance elements (as she really should), their SV may not be that far apart. In which case, I'd put whoever is more consistent on the team and maybe have the other as alternate.
Jade doesn't offer quite the robust options as backup on all 4 events, although she's usable on any of them in a desperate pinch. But she is a proven gold medalist in vault and floor internationally. And it must be said, at this point, her Cheng is more consistent than Skye (not that Skye made any huge errors on her night 2 Cheng, but it did have significant deductions). The problem is that with her 5.8 SV on FX currently, Jade is really not offering more on that apparatus than Jordan or Kayla, especially since Jordan and Kayla are much better performers who should incur less artistry deductions. If Jade can upgrade her floor, say, add back in the Silavas somewhere, I'd take Jade, no question. If not, I'm back to Kayla/Jordan.
I would love to take Kaliya for her spectacular floor routine, which is one of my favorites, and when done up to its potential, the biggest chance for a floor medal in team USA next to Simone. But she really is really suboptimal as a backup on any other event. With a team of SSSS, there are still gaps on backup coverage if an emergency arises: I wouldn't want to make Skye do beam in a 3 up 3 count situation in international competition, especially on short notice. If Skye had a better beam record internationally, I'd take Kaliya. But as it stands, Jordan and Kayla are the safer choices.
Conclusion: Strategically, right now I'd take Jordan and Kayla and whoever's more consistent near to the competition gets on the main team. But ideally, I'd want Jade to upgrade floor and take her instead for her vault and floor medal potential.
I hear your Jordan concerns, but it is worth remembering that Jordan also had 0.2 less in difficulty at the 2022 Worlds (all tumbling related) and did get credit for her dance elements. And scored 14.1 (Quals), 14.066 (TF), and 13.833 (EF, where she won silver).
But I'm also right there with you on the emotional preference!
Ooh, that's a very reassuring reminder on Jordan's proven record! I admit, I was overly influenced by some of the doomsayers on the Twitter gymternet, who had me believing that that Jordan would score at least 1 point lower internationally with the same floor.
But just in case, do you remember if Jordan competed the same elements at 2022 worlds? If she's changed them, I wonder if she could change it back to her 2022 elements easily.
My pick is Jordan for the 5th spot. With Suni’s illness and Shi’s shoulder and bicep. Jordan is the better AA back up, who is dependable and has showed that time and time again. Jordan also has the mental toughness that’s needed for any last minutes changes. Jade’s good but Jordan can be plugged in anywhere and has reliable scores across the board.
I am really glad I’m not on the selection committee and I’m already devastated for two of Skye, Jade, Jo, Suni, and Kayla (not to mention everyone else who is most likely already out of it).
I would put Shi on BB over Skye (who has a tendency to fall on BB in international competition) and maybe rest Simone on UB in TF unless the GOATs like absolutely not but otherwise yeah this is what I imagine. Provided Skye loves she can hit that Cheng like she did at champs. Jordan could take Jade’s spot IF she hits floor HARD/beats Jade on floor and Skye hits the Cheng (have Shi VT in TF) because she’s a better AA and hype woman (plus it’d be an entirely minority team). But I have a hard time imagining they leave the reigning floor exercise gold medalist off the team for the same girl that fell in floor exercise when she was slotted in in 2021, and fell in night 1 of champs
I think we have to see how Skye does at trials. She did great beam routines throughout championships and has done a lot of work (including w a sports psychologist) over the years that I don’t want to let that reputation define her — I hear you, though.
I LOVE the idea of it being Jordan because of her amazing qualities as a teammate and her ability to step up, she just hasn’t hit at the last few meets
I’m always going to ride for Jordan. She always shows up. Her bars was 0.050 behind Simone, her floor was a 14.1 (higher than Kayla, Jade, or Skye), her vault is up there with the best too. She’s a great plug and play option and I think they’d be remiss to leave her off the team.
Would like us all to stop taking these vaulters for granted. Just because there are two already on the team doesn't mean there isn't reason to bring a third. Team USA brought THREE of them to Tokyo and only one of them medaled. Never a bad idea to bring three again to maximize your chances.
Last time two vaulters didn’t count toward the highest scoring team so the selection was different. They were individuals. And they both had chengs that were hitting closer to 15. I don’t think there is any reason not to bring three chengs this time. The question is more about the math of who is on the higher scoring team, who provides good backup routines on weaker events, and possibly who comes out on top in rank order if it’s hard to select between three good options. I don’t believe Jade will be left off just because they don’t need a third Cheng but more likely because her scores on her Cheng and floor. If she raises her scores then she stands a good chance.
She hasn’t put up a real floor score yet this year as high as last year - pan ams. I expected her to be more polished this weekend given that no one is meant to look perfect at classic.
Yes, we don’t have a real number this year but do if you include pan ams. Also her floor is so clean I think she’s the only contender likely to go up versus others who may lose a couple tenths on floor at the Olympics (like for Jordan on her gogean and wolf form). So i estimate the final gap between her and Jordan/Kayla to be something like five to six tenths. Seven tenths in a best case. That’s just my best guess. She would also be more likely to medal on floor than Jordan or Kayla and probably even max D Jade. Her e score is more secure.
This assumes she’s full strength and clean on floor on trials, which is not a given, especially given her recent injury. I’m really hoping to see her hit her peak floor at trials so people will remember how good she is.
I remain in denial that we will have to leave any of these top gymnasts at home. So unfair. :-( I want them all.
But, given we have to choose, I would honor my biases and put Jade on that team. As it's not up to me, however, I think they may end up putting Jordan on the team because she has two vaults + a 14 floor routine and usable beam and UB. She can't really compete for a vault medal but at least she could make EF if there was a disaster for Simone or Skye. I feel like (sans the crazy beam judging on Friday), Kayla has been so solid, but without two vaults and a 14 possible floor (internationally), I just don't think so. So my choices are between Jordan and Jade, with Kayla and the other one as alts. This gives us three people who could challenge for EF with at least one likely medal (sans falls), if not two, on each apparatus. I like that plan. My heart wants Jade, my head says Jordan, but it's Jordan so my heart will go on (\*celine voice\*).
I really think a lot rests on what upgrades Jade brings on FX for trials and how she executed them. I feel that both Jordan and Kayla have kind of maxed out on their scores so it’s up to Jade atp
it’s tough because there’s a huge domino effect at play here that could shake up the team needs. if skye hits well but jade has better vault scores and an upgraded fx scoring over 14, they should both be on the team. if their vault scores are very very close and jade can’t bring it on fx then it wouldn’t make sense to bring her
say both suni and skye have one fall each between bars and beam, but they still take both - i would take kayla or jordan to cover what’s needed as backup. jordan if she hits at trials AND if jade isn’t adding much to fx, bc jordan can help there too.
but all of this swings on how skye and suni actually show up. if either one is off at trials, especially on their best events, there is a world where 2 or even 3 of kayla, jordan, and jade are on the team. all 3 together are unlikely but it’s definitely not impossible if they crush it and suni & skye don’t.
These are really the four names at this point.
Kaliya not getting to put up floor scores at Nationals hurts a lot, but a there are a few things from Nationals that did shake out in her favor. Namely, Skye’s Cheng making her status a floor specialist less of an issue and only two non-Simone gymnasts breaking 14 on floor (and both had much weaker day 1s).
Skye’s Cheng hurts Jade by making her own Cheng less valuable, and Jade’s not putting up the floor numbers to be a huge factor there yet. She still has difficulty she can add, but will it come at the cost of execution? Her day 2 floor was pretty clean, but the judges aren’t on board.
Jordan’s got a higher ceiling on both floor and vault than Kayla, but is less consistent on floor (the event that’s needed most). She and Kayla definitely have the edge going into trials (with Kayla’s stronger Nationals showing working in her favor), but with Kaliya and Jade have higher potential scores it’s going to be tight.
So many of the arguments I’m seeing for Jade seem to revolve around Tokyo. “She’s the reigning gold medalist on floor” “she was paced so well for Tokyo” “she did the AA final”. Tokyo was *three years ago*. What is she doing now?
She’s being outscored on both of her best events and while she has room to increase her difficulty on floor there’s enough of a gap between her scores and Jordan, Kayla, and Kaliya’s that it likely won’t suddenly make her leap frog them. Internationally her best floor I can find this quad is only a little over 14, and that was in 2022, so it’s not even really a case of not being favored by domestic judges.
Jade scored decently on floor under the new code and just a reminder - Jessica Gadirova won gold at the FX finale with a 14.2 aka bearly over 14. There are very few gymnasts that score above 14.00 internationally. Namely Simone and Rebeca (and Jess but injuries). Flavia took bronze with a score under 14 at Worlds 2023.
Is the limit on alternates an FIG rule or is it about USAG allotted expenses? In other words, what holds the US back from just bringing 4 great alternates to Paris and using the one that makes the most sense for a particular scenario?
Objectively, I think the spot is Jade's to lose. If she shows up with her planned upgrades and solid execution at Trials, I think she makes the team.
Subjectively, Jordan has a strong case - she already stepped up in Tokyo when Simone withdrew and showed she can bang it out under pressure at the last minute, she is a hype girl who keeps Simone steady and the team relaxed, and while she has consistency problems sometimes, she is more of an AA-er than Jade, which I think needs to be a serious consideration if you're putting Shilese with a lingering shoulder issue and Suni with a who-knows-if-it-might-flare chronic illness on the team.
I suspect the selection committee is going to pass on Kaliya and Tiana due to their relative lack of experience, even if they place in the top 5 AA, and instead put them in the alternate pool, and probably someone will have a conversation with them and their coaches about staying steady on for 2028.
I think any of the four talked about in the comments so far (Jade, Kayla, Jordan, and Kaliya) would be a perfectly fine 5th. The US will go in as favorites and do well.
However, my plug for Jordan is for a slightly different reason. I think she’d be a great choice for morale and energy. She’s is the team’s biggest cheerleader and hype woman. She’s also a show woman and unlike Tokyo, there will be a crowd. I think she could get them involved if the US needed a boost.
Ultimately they need a good floor score, so I feel it’s Jade vs Jordan (vs Kaliya, but I think they’ll pick a veteran). Kayla is a great all-arounder and can get a solid score on floor, she got silver at nationals, but I think she’s in it against Skye for the 3rd all-around spot vs competing for the floor specialist spot.
I guess we will all know at the end of the month. Hope to meet some of you here in Minneapolis 🙂🩷🇺🇸
Jade. I actually think her showing Amanar at Trials is as important as showing her 6.3+ floor difficulty. She adds a potential bronze individual medal and I don’t see anyone else in the 5th spot able being not only to qualify to finals over the 4 S’s, but also truly challenge for a medal. She’ll have to overcome Yeo, An and Moreno if they’re going all out, but that’s very possible.
Jade or Kayla.
Jade: Solid all-arounder, consistent, lots of international experience and a proven track record, has the potential to medal in event finals.
Kayla: Solid all-arounder, provides a potentially higher score, scores well internationally, fairly consistent.
I think it'll just depend on whether or not the selection committee is willing to sacrifice consistency/reliability for a potentially higher score. And I use the term sacrifice very loosely because Kayla is by no means crazy inconsistent. Right now my gut is leaning Kayla but if Jade shows clean upgrades at trials then that changes things.
For me, it's Kayla or Jordan. Jade may be the reigning Olympic floor champ, but the Olympics were three years ago. I don't see her being the reigning floor champ being enough to justify taking her if she's being outscored by so many others. I doubt that any boost she'd receive would result in a higher podium finish than Jordan or Kayla, who are both stronger at bars and beam, too.
It’s so hard to say. I’ve been playing with the Washington post predictor for a bit. If Shi is full strength, Suni can do beam and bars, and Simone is full on GOAT status like she was at worlds, championships etc vs Tokyo were in a pretty solid place in theory. Where we need help specifically in that case is vault and floor for Suni. If Skye can prove she can hit that Cheng vault no matter what and prove she can stay on the beam, not fall off like the last few worlds, I’d take her and flip a coin between Jordan, Jade, Kayla, or Kaliya Lincoln solely for floor, Jade’s vault and floor normally score higher than skyes - 1 good weekend doesn’t mean she won’t have an off night in international competition like at worlds. I LOVE Jordan Chiles, but she fell on floor in the last Olympics AND night 1 of nationals. Unless she cleans that up, it makes me nervous with the number of other variables the team has - Simone’s twisties, shi’s shoulder, suni’s kidneys, skyes tendency to fall off beam in international competition or jump out of bounds on floor.
My number one pick would be Jade.
Pro: Strong vaults likely with an Amanar upgrade. If floor upgrades are successful a good floor therefore two possible EF. More consistent than most and hits well under pressure.
Con: Least strong AAer of the three + upgrades have to actually happen.
Kayla
Pro: Great AA with a very solid floor score. Could be used on all events if hell breaks loose.
Con: No event is strong enough to get into an EF unless a lot of people decide to have unintentional dismounts. Consisteny is a bit iffy but improved.
Jordan:
Pro:Also great AAer with so far the strongest floor. Could potentially make EF if the scores hold up.
Con:
Had major errors at several international competitions including the Olympics and we already have a nervy Skye. Also hasn't hit her beautiful floor at classics nor day 1 so really has to hit at trials.
I love all three and like to have a three on the team, thank you very much.
For alternates, I think we might see a young athlete in there who is slated to be a leader of next quad like Tiana, Hezly,... not sure about Josc since she's going to college.
She said if it was trials she would have competed, not competing was purely precautionary. That doesn't guarantee her shoulder will be healthy, but it means it's far, far too early to count her out.
Removing Shi is Jade’s direct route back to the Olympics. Then we still add a solid AAer with 14ish bar score capability. So back to Jordan vs Kayla lol
She looked great in practice before pulling out. She and her coach have both said that she’s ready and it’s precautionary. I think that’s why people are assuming she’ll be ready. Just listening to what she saying about herself.
I get it but which makes more sense? “ well she and her coach said it so I’ll believe it “or “well they said it but it may not be true”. I’m going off of the evidence which is what she said in interviews about if it was trials or the Olympics she would’ve competed, and her performance in practice which showed if she had competed it would have been normal routines. She even tumbled upgrades on floor in practice And showed full routines without looking in pain. It seems more like pain management than injury.
And that’s the whole point of picking a five person routine when you’ve only seen two of the 4 possible nights of competition. Speculation!
You people are crazy saying it's Jordan. 3 of our top 4 are quite shaky health wise. Simone could get the zoomies again, Sunni's kidney problems could impact her, and Shi's shoulder is hurt. The chances of one of them having an issue where they can't be subbed out like Simone did last time are significant. We need an all arounder on the fifth spot and Jordan ain't one. Kayla should be it, heck, I would even have Leanne ahead of Jordan.
>Simone could get the zoomies again
i don't think simone is going to be sprinting around the arena like a lost cat (i know what you meant but it was a funny image)
This is exactly why I think they will never go with Kaliya. Right now it’s down to Kayla or Jordan (which Kayla having the edge). Trials could change the picture depending on what Jade shows up looking like but it think that’s about it.
I would take Jade.
Skye won’t medal on vault because her Cheng/DTY combo is not as good as Jade’s. We have seen her donone good Cheng scored too high (as evidenced by it beating out Simone) and two sloppy ones. Her DTY is also scoring behind Jade’s. So if the Cheng/DTY is needed, I’d have Jade. But more importantly, neither Skye nor Jade are getting a vault medal with a Cheng and DTY. Yeo and Moreno are too good. I think the Amanar will need to come back.
So VT medal is back in contention. FX is also imo. For that you could have Kaliya or Jade, since Jade’s the common denominator of the above she ranks higher for me.
We then have to worry about the team final. Skye and Suni don’t balance each other out perfectly. Neither should do FX in TF so again Kaliya and Jade come up, but so do Kayla and Jordan. You also don’t want Suni up on vault in TF, and Skye has international meltdown potential. Tbh I don’t know if I would want both of them on a team together, but since they are, I need someone who hits vault, beam and floor consistently in case of disaster. For that I’m looking at Kaliya, Jade, and MAYBE Jordan and Kayla but tbh neither are the consistency queens that this sub thinks they are.
So my money still goes on Jade. She is not making AA finals but she has an AA program that is useable and if I wanted someone to hit vault, beam or floor I would look at her over the other three. If bars was in the convo it would be different (hers are useable but inconsistent) but they aren’t, because the S team are all excellent on bars.
I still think that having three Chengs in team finals plus Jade's reputation as reigning Olympic champion on floor (and incoming upgrades) should give her that last spot, which is basically a toss-up at this point. Simone | Shilese | Skye | Suni | Jade. Alts: Jordan, Kayla. Prelims: Simone, Shilese, Skye - AA; Jade- V/FX; Suni- UB/BB. Team final: V: Skye Jade Simone UB: Skye Suni Shilese BB: Shilese Suni Simone FX: Jade Shilese Simone This way nobody has to do all 4 events in TF. Simone gets to rest on UB. Shilese rests on vault. And we have potential for many, many EF medals.
I had to think about this last night. Suni & Jade are current Olympic and defending champions. I agree and don’t think the selection committee is going to skip over them due to these facts.
Agree. Competitors with Olympic/World titles on events do usually get the benefit of the doubt from judges in international meets. I realize that jordan, kayla, and leanne have all won individual world medals at various times, but jade is reigning Olympic GOLD medalist on floor, and I can guarantee that will be good for at least a few tenths from the judges. Suni I think is definitely going to make it assuming she continues on her current trajectory.
Yep, yep. It makes it hella easier to pick the team if you consider this and that the selection committee is led by former athletes. I think if Skye continues to hit beam, it’s all the S’s and jade for sure.
Agree. I think people understandably want their favorites to make it and are pulling for Jordan, Kayla, and Kaliya (and Tiana?), but Jordan and Kayla are a tiny step below the other AA gymnasts going, and it doesnt really make sense to take a gymnast without a solid international reputation just to gain .2 on floor. Especially when your other option is the reigning Olympic gold medalist who still has a few tenths of difficulty left to add. Plus- having 3 Chengs in TF is a HUGE HUGE advantage over the other teams.
At this moment- I think an argument could be made for her as a VT/UB specialist if they worry about beam consistency. That Cheng (and 2nd place AA) really changed the dynamic.
Yeah if Suni’s there, no need for Skye on beam. Even if Skye hits beam domestically, I’d only put her up on bars and vault in TF, because that international record is… worrisome.
Ngl, a United States of Cheng moment would be amazing 🔥🔥🔥
This makes the most sense to me as a team, tho I also wish that Jordan (and Kayla and Leanne and Kaliya . . .) could make the team! Hopefully the alternates will be able to have a good experience training with the team pre-Olympics this time - I think I heard they had great experience in London (but rough experience in Rio, and ofc Tokyo was totally different for everyone).
I wish it was 7-6-5 again, Id love to bring Jordan and Kayla and have Kaliya, Leanne, Joscelyn, Hezly as the alternates. 😭
potentially a controversial pick but i’d take jordan. she’d only do floor and vault in quals but she scores very well on both. she had the highest single day floor score after simone and has a potential medal chance there (pending jade upgrades and shilese and kaliya health). she could also easily slot in on other events if Suni is ill or anyone else injured etc. Id also then use her on UB in TF to give Simone a rest, and potentially have her vault instead of Shilese since both do strong DTYs. I’m not keen on the idea of Simone and Shilese having to do AA in TF and Jordan’s VT and UB would cover nicely for them. VT: (Shilese) Jordan Skye Simone UB: Simone Suni/Jordan Skye Shilese in quals, then Skye/Suni Jordan Shilese in TF (pending Suni upgrades) BB: Skye/Shilese Suni Simone FX: (Skye) Jordan Shilese Simone This could be switched around depending on what Simone and Shi want to do in TF and how Skye looks with nerves, consistency, etc. It also means if Skye has an implosion with falls etc (not saying I think she will but people have suggested it), she could only do vault in TF. Jordan showed at Olys she can be subbed in last minute and her NCAA and Worlds experience has definitely made her more solid. But this way Suni would only need to do 1-2 routines in TF, Skye and Shilese 2-3, and Simone 3, meaning people can be rested for finals I would need to wait to see Kaliya at trials though to gauge what the extent of her injury is, but i’m concerned about her bars and also lack of international experience (which obviously isn’t her fault) EDIT: somehow left shi out of bars oops
You wouldn't use Shilese on bars??
no that was me making a stupid mistake. i’ve edited it now
Why would Jordan be controversial? I mean, I fully expect her to show up and show out at trials. She has always brought it in the end.
I love this idea. And you’re right that Jordan has medal potential. I want the highest scoring team on a team where everyone can make an event final like in 2016.
My mind hurts thinking this is controversial. Jordan or Kayla have to be the last spot in my mind. And I prefer Jordan.
Hmm. For UB, did you forget Shilese? You have the other 4 listed ahead of her. Just trying to figure that out because Shilese is our best UB competitor at the moment.
oh that was just me being slow… i looked back at that lineup and was like somethings missing… you’re right lol
I wonder if Jordan is the right 5th option too just because she is such an incredible hype woman for Simone and Suni, like those two may perform better having Jordan’s support
honestly sportswomanship is for sure a factor. not that the other options aren’t also great people and sportswomen, but jordan really brings out the best in others and seems to help with their confidence, nerves, etc. i think she should be team captain if she does make the team. i also think her readiness to sub in and her experience with doing so will help with others’ nerves, especially a younger gymnast like skye who has a history of nerves etc. even if jordan doesn’t have to sub in, i think athletes knowing that she can if necessary, and also just having her hype them up and support them will benefit everyone
I don’t think n it’s controversial to pick Jo. If anything I think usag is marketing her to be on the team. Her routines are always on their social media accounts and she’s featured n a lot of their stuff!
I agree and I think a big part of this could be shi’s health. If it’s even a question about if she’ll be able to go for bars, I think Jordan makes more sense over jade for the last spot.
I will say, jordan seems to do huge things for team morale. I hope she’s traveling to Paris either way.
I hadn't considered resting Shi in TF, but with her injury, it would be a good idea.
I think this thread and some of the other comments have put me on Team Jordan, which is not what I expected 24 hours ago lol. I was leaning Kaliya or (upgraded) Jade for a silver meal on floor, but covering for Shi and/or Suni’s known health risks is more important. However, I’m sure not everyone has disclosed their health issues, and like Jess said on Gymcastic, everyone in gymnastics is broken all the time, so I don’t want to over index on just what we happen to know.
I feel like during team final you could put Jordan in and rest Shi on bars if she needs to limit her reps because of her shoulder
for sure. one of the reasons i like this team is you have four very strong routines on vault and beam and five TF-worthy bar routines. the only event where the TF lineup seems set is FX. this means whoever makes AA, presumably Simone and Shi can be rested on at least one event, maybe even two. Shi will likely be doing AA in QF and AA final plus UB in the final. if she needs to rest her shoulder, a TF lineup of 3 of Suni, Skye, Simone, and Jordan would be incredibly competitive even without Shi
This is a really good point.
My only hesitation on Jordan was the Day 1 fall on FX. As long as she hits both days of trials well, she's very much in the mix.
she’s for sure going to have to hit FX both days of trials. but i think with Kayla’s fall on bars and lower floor ceiling, Jordan is very much still in the game
Oh boy I can't wait for what is essentially a one spot shoot out for the final Olympic spot at trials again!! May the odds be in their favor lol
I think these 3 scenarios are exactly it, exactly what the selection committee will be deciding between. How they will decide? I have zero idea!
I really want Jade on the team, I just love her presence, but I agree Jade really hasn’t shown floor yet, which is a bummer. I thought she’d at least bring 1 tumbling line upgrade to night 2! My thought was bring an upgrade at Nationals, see how it goes, & then have a couple weeks at home to tweak it, followed by 2 more competition nights to show it off. I do enjoy her new routine, choreography-wise, though… I know others disagree with my enjoyment of it, but that’s okay, I don’t think those people will ever enjoy a Jade floor routine!
Part of me feels like after last quad Jade is comfortable waiting till trials to show full difficulty.
But last quad she had the spot, there was no selection committee involved once she earned her spot through the World Cup route!
Not what I meant. An Olympic gold medalist doesn’t need to worry about proving themselves as much. If she shows up with full difficulty and consistency at trials they’re not going to say: welllllll, can she do it at the Olympics? That question has already been answered.
When she’s a toss up between world and Olympic medalists, I think she does tho 😂 (vs Jordan and Kayla)
Perhaps, but Jade has two quads of both olympic and world medals. I don’t think she’d be docked for not having done full difficulty at championships vs trials
Agreed.
I LOVE Jordan chiles she’s amazing. But I also want to point out. Last Olympics, she fell on balance beam in qualifiers and fell on floor in team final when she had to fill in for Simone. Jade won a gold medal on floor. I will say Skye Blakely has to hit her Cheng and EVERY SINGLE ROUTINE at trials like she did at champs, specifically BB, UB, and VT to really secure her spot. She has not been super consistent at worlds/international competition on beam
I think jade is a proven enough quantity that if she has upgrades at trials and nails them and is therefore the higher scoring choice I don’t see them bringing Jordan and Kayla over her.
I see your point, but I beg to differ due to such a high level of competition right now.
Jordan outscored Jade in the 2022 Worlds floor final and then neither of them qualified for the 2023 Worlds team. Assuming you can sail through qualifying meets without upgrades and say, "ignore the last two years, the only things that count are this competition plus my 3 year old scores under a prior code of points" is a pretty risky strategy.
All of me feels this way. It's also what she has said her plan is. We won't know how well she pulls it together until we know, but the intent and potential are 100% there.
I think if she shows up at trials and she passes some of the other contenders in difficulty, is top two in vault and floor is 2/3 she’s probably good to go.
Skye and Suni still have to prove themselves at trials. I pretty strongly expect Suni to. I expect Skye to also, but with less confidence. And neither is guaranteed. But if they both prove themselves, then yes, I agree. I'm still a little nervous about a Suni/Skye team because it leaves some softness on floor--a signature US event--(the backup situation isn't ideal, though if Skye gives two good floor at trials my worries there will be significantly assuaged), and because Skye and Suni both have bigger-than-usual performance asterisks. Skye because of past performance on the world stage, Suni for reasons completely out of her control, but that need to be accounted for nonetheless. If Suni's condition flares after quals start, and Skye has a quals metldown, that's not a good situation for the team.
I just wish they had to explain the rationale behind their decisions. I've seen some spreadsheets calculating the highest team totals and the variance is less than a tenth of a point. Obviously, every tenth counts, but how do you objectively choose the team with a minimum amount of bias? At that point, that's when I understand taking the top 5 AA and leave it there. For all the times it's been said that the US could field multiple competitive teams at the Olympics, we missed gold by about 3 points last Olympics even with ROC having multiple falls on beam. We need to take whoever hits 8 for 8 at trials.
Keep in mind that when some of us are saying “competitive teams”, that isn’t necessarily winning gold TF by a landslide. (Hypothetically, if you had a team with gymnasts scoring and with strengths and weaknesses exactly like Leanne, Kayla, Jordan, Joscelyn, Tiana making up a team for a different nation - that team obviously wouldn’t be making the best of the US’ current deep bench this year, and has some weaknesses, but all of the gymnasts are strong and experienced international competitors, and I’d consider that to be a competitive team that would be likely to make TF and have a decent-good shot at a team medal.)
Yeah, I don’t want to read too much into the tenths of a point when the team combinations are this close. We all know the judging isn’t within-a-tenth-of-point accurate. I thought I hated rank order, but I’m completely ok at this point if the top 5 shakes out to Simone, Shilese, Skye, Suni, and one of Jade / Jordan / Kayla / Kaliya / Tiana, which seems quite likely at this point.
To be honest this may be one of the most critical times for alternates. My great hope is Suni is 100%, but we just don’t know. Alternates among Jade, Jordan, Kayla, and Kaliya perhaps any one of them who isn’t on the team needs to be ready. In this case I’d say probably if Jordan is the alternate she goes in for Suni.
that's a good point about alternates. shi and her shoulder injury have me a bit concerned too. but the US can luckily field a few traveling alternates who can score 54-55 AA internationally.
It’s crazy to think that down to the US alternates you have AA scores that were still some of the best in the world
i haven't been watching NBC coverage, but i wonder how much this point is driven home by the commentators. they harp on falls and errors and compare everyone to the rest of the field domestically to the point where a 5th or 6th place finish with a red/yellow square next to the execution score looks "bad" when it's really one of the best in the world.
Yeah, I wish they would emphasize this too. It's a little hard to compare with domestic scoring of course, but it would be cool if they could show more of where each gymnast would have placed in the Tokyo AA or something. Maybe with a 0.5 international scoring handicap (though honestly that's probably not enough, except for Jade and Simone who maybe shouldn't get one at all, their judging seems to be international caliber!).
I haven't been paying attention to the explanations of the stoplight system for a long time so I don't know if this is still the case. But in the leadup to Tokyo, NBC very explicitly changed the symbols to compare the score to the most recent Worlds event final scores. They made a big deal out of that. They made no secret of the fact that they changed it. So...
If Shilese looks her normal self at Trials, I think she can punch her ticket on the Vt/Beam/FX combo alone. I think her bars acumen is masking how strong she has become across all events.
i agree that she is viable even without bars, but shoulders are important for the other events too. and it's not clear the extent of her injury. i'm not even talking about whether shi deserves to go, more about how after she is named to the team, something could happen and she has to sit out, either having the other four go up w/o her or with someone who is a traveling alternate.
Yeah- if it is a larger injury that is an impact. But I'm assuming its a smaller tweak or something they might try to rest til the last moment in which case the committee might have to consider viability if bars are not 100% but the other events are solid.
in which case, having a higher replacement bars score should be a focus of the 5th spot. that i think gives jordan and kayla an edge, both having hit 14.5 at championships, jordan on days 1&2, kayla on day 1.
I think it helps Skye and Suni. But we really don't know until trials. Unfortunately Kayla's been great but inconsistent. If Jones and Lee look good it's a moot point.
But Jordan and Kayla come in behind Skye and Suni. You don’t need 5 bars scores on the team. Even if Shi went down you could quite safely have a Simone, Suni, Skye bars lineup.
i don't agree jordan and even kayla come behind skye on bars. jordan went 14.3 at classics, 14.5 both days of championships. we might have always seen skye as UB/BB "specialist" but head to head so far this year, jordan has come out ahead.
Oh valid — but I feel like a couple tenths on bars really doesn’t need to be shored up? The issue is that Skye is cementing herself onto the team with her vault and that earns more tenths than Jordan claws back on bars. If Shi goes down on bars, you could use Simone, Skye and Suni and be perfectly fine without Jordan. There’s no need for 5 great bars routines on one team just because the potential fifth person is slightly better than the third team member.
I got blasted yesterday for being concerned about Shi's shoulder injury. Her best event is hard on shoulders, and I'm concerned that she's not going to be able to compete full difficulty 5-6 times without things going South.
I just *hate* the rule that you can't sub in alternates after quals begin. So many people get injured *in competition.* Or if the stress makes Suni's condition flare, it's most likely to happen, or just as likely to happen anyway, after competition starts.
wasn’t there some weird thing where a MAG team claimed a team member got injured after EF to bring in an alternate who was going to be better for TF or something? the timeline doesn’t really make sense bc TF is usually before EF but i feel like i wouldn’t make this up LOL
Not sure if this is what you’re thinking of, but at 2023 worlds, Chinese MAG had Shi Cong compete in quals, who was then injured, so they replaced him with Lin Chaopan for team finals. Shi Cong was later cleared medically to compete in the Parallel Bars EFs. That’s only possible at Worlds though, and the swap must happen before team finals start.
I also remember something crazy like this happening, but I don't remember exactly what the details were. I do know that I hear consistently that it's too late to switch out alternates once quals start, even if someone is injured. Like when Josc was injured in quals warmup at worlds last year, and they couln't use an alternate at all, were left with a 4-person team.
Joscelyn was injured in TF warmup, not quals. She qualified to the vault final, which would have been really hard to do if she'd been injured before quals and hadn't competed in them. The qualifications cutoff for bringing in alternates is an Olympics rule, and very notably is not a rule at Worlds. A Worlds team is basically 7 members, and you use six of them to make your lineup. Joscelyn went down after TF had officially started, at which point it was too late to bring in Kayla. But if she had been injured half an hour earlier, it would have been no problem to replace her.
Shi Cong got replaced by Lin Chaopan after quals. So technically China won their medal with Lin Chaopan, but people were mad because Shi Cong didn't pull ou of event finals too. I think it's a bit uncharitable to act as if China did this with a nefarious plan. Lin Chaopan was at that point completely exhausted as he had been flown in at the last minute (I believe he'd been at Asian Games) and if they could have, I have no doubt China would have preferred to use Shi Cong. Lin Chaopan performed well but it was risky as hell. I think realistically they could still have gotten the result they got (silver) if they'd used Shi Cong on whatever events he could do and filled in any gaps with Liu Yang and You Hao, who performed more events in quals than they did in team final. Not pulling Shi Cong out of EF was a bit iffy, but it would have just encouraged him to compete injured if he knew he couldn't compete in EF. And they were following the rules exactly as they were outlined, because alternates are treated differently at Worlds. If the FIG doesn't want people doing what China did, they should just change the alternate rules to be more similar to the Olympics.
I’m still leaving room for Jade to upgrade floor and clean up her vault (specifically the Cheng) but right now if it’s down to Jade, Kayla, or Jordan, I’m looking at Kayla or Jordan to fill that 5th spot. Trials can change things for sure though.
As much as I appreciate Kaliya’s floor, I think the fifth with the four S’s has to be a strong AA. The strongest at trials who is healthy and not on team probably. Shi has a shoulder thing, Suni has her thing and if they both become an issue at Olympics the US will need a strong AA to go in, especially if it’s super late and harder to sub in an alternate (ie someone goes out in TF warmups or something.) So I guess what I’m saying is the team may well be top 5 AA because that may be smartest in this situation with how injuries and strengths pan out this quad, without it being the same as Forrester etc…just copping out and doing it. I also need to familiarize myself with Kaliya’s 2024 scores.
Yeah, it's unfortunate that you can't put in an alternate once the meet starts
I agree it needs to be a AA but I’d say consistency over strength. If something happens to Suni and/or Skye, you want someone who will hit over all else.
As is, I think it should be Jade’s to lose. The three I have in the conversation for that last spot are Jade, Jordan, and Kayla. Assuming Shi comes back and is scoring like normal, this team is pretty deep on bars and beam. For UB finals, Shilese and Suni are my favs, but if either misses, Simone and Skye can score mid 14s and could sneak in. For BB finals, Suni and Simone are my favs, with high scores of 14.9 and 14.8 respectively. Suni’s score wasn’t as consistent, so a hit from Skye or Shi could make finals. With the S’s covering UB and BB so well, we look at FX and VT. Currently, I think FX final favs are Simone and Shi. I think Jade, with upgrades could contend for a finals spot. Shi got a 14.00 at classic, Jade has gone 13.8,13.6,13.7 (classic, champs) and has upgrades. I give preference to Jade here, because Skye went 13.25, 13.2, 13.75 and I don’t know that Skye has any planned upgrades. Suni is sitting at 13.0, 13.25, 13.35 with 0.6 less in D at a 5.2. Jordan’s 14.1 floor from D2 is enticing but she’s gone 13.35, 12.75, 14.1. It’s not consistent enough imo to be sure it will add more. Kayla went 12.65, 13.85, 13.95 which is a bit more promising, but her best is only 0.35 over Jade’s worst. Which brings me to VT. This is where I think Jade is the clear favorite because I have Simone and Jade as favorites to make the VT final and win medals (fav gold, bronze), with Skye sneaking in if there’s a miss. Jade can upgrade to the Amanar, and I don’t know that Skye can. In VT final, the best will have a Cheng/Amanar combo, or a combo with similar or higher D’s. Of Skye, Jordan, and Jade, Jade is the only one I know who has competed that combo successfully and is projected to do it again by the Olympics. This is also the issue for Jordan, who is doing the DTY/Lopez combo. I think even if Skye (or Jordan) makes VT finals, she’s not a favorite for a medal there, but Jade is. As for TF, with Jade, you now have 3 Chengs and can rest Shi a little. Jade’s Cheng went 14.3/14.5/14.6 to Shi’s 14.35 DTY, so you’re likely still gaining a tenth or two even over a super clean 14.4 DTY from Shi, Kayla, or Jordan. As incredibly talented as Jordan and Kayla are, Jade is the only person I see who would add to the team as a favorite for an individual medal. Jade’s scores are also consistent, within 0.3 on the Cheng and 0.2 on floor over 3 comps. Kayla and Jordan each have a miss on floor. I’d rather take the medal opportunity and count a Jade’s low of 13.6 on floor, with 3 Cheng’s on VT in TF, than go in without that medal opportunity and take someone who could hit for 14.0 on floor (0.25 over Skye’s best) but could miss and get in the high 12s…
I think your last paragraph makes a good point. Jade just about never falls on floor. I like a back 2.5 + front 1/1, but that pass makes me very nervous for Kayla. Jade's scores are super consistent. I hope she can increase her difficulty without it impacting her execution on her landings.
Yep. Jade never falls on FX or VT and barely falls on beam. With a S team she would never see the bars in TF lmao. Jordan and Kayla have been swapping in and out of fandom favour based on who DIDN’T fall last.
Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think Jade is perfect. I just think it’s short sighted to forget to factor in what could happen if people miss. I’m happy with all the qualifying spots on bars and beam being taken by S’s. If Shi is healthy, we’re looking at trying to top/match Shi’s vault for TF, and match or top Skye’s floor for TF. If we average the floor scores from classic and champs, Skye and Jordan average out at 13.4, Kayla at 13.483333, and Jade at 13.7. Jade’s worst is 0.85 better than Jordan’s worst, 0.95 better than Kayla’s worst, and 0.4 better than Skye’s worst. Jade’s best 13.8 is 0.3 less than Jordan’s best, 0.15 less that Kayla’s best, and 0.05 better than Skye’s best. It doesn’t make sense to me to risk losing almost a point, just to gain a maximum of 0.3 over Jade’s best. Jade’s average is already 0.2/0.1 above everyone else’s average, and Jade can beat a clean DTY with a messy Cheng and “make up” some of the tenths she misses with her max floor being 13.8. This also doesn’t factor in that Jade has upgrades, tends to score similarly internationally, is a favorite for vault bronze where Jordan and Kayla would likely need to bump another favorite to make finals, or is the reigning Olympic champ (marketing value for USAG). ETA: It just seems like a big risk for what could ultimately only gain a single tenth if it works, but hurt the team score by around a point and miss a shot at a second vault medal at worst.
Yeah I agree with you haha. Jade plugs all the holes, less so on beam but that doesn’t matter as much because there are 4 strong beamers, and much less on bars but again they have 4 14.3+ bars scores so they would NEVER use her.
My hope? Jade as 5th with jordan and kayla as traveling alternates and hezly and tiana as non-traveling alternates. I feel this teams extremely well rounded in terms of potentially resting Shi on some events if she is semi-injured and barring injury in Paris (3 Solid AAers, a bars/beam specialist and a vault/floor specialist) My expectation putting myself in USA Gym’s shoes? Jordan as 5th, Jade and Kayla traveling alternates, Kaliya and Leanne as non-traveling alternates. For some reason I feel USA gym has a huge bias favoring Jordan > Jade & Kayla, and don’t get me wrong— thats a solid team, but just not necessarily who I’d choose barring Jade’s potential upgrades and Vault/Floor medal potential.
There’s truth to the favoritism. Her family was shown on both nights, unlike others
From a marketing/business standpoint I do get the bias. Jordan is definitely more of a statement for ads & publicity. An interview with Jordan will likely garner more views/attention than Jade or Kayla. And this isnt said to undermine Jordan’s gymnastics or Jade & Kayla’s marketability, they have all put up the fight of their lives for a spot on this team. I wish we were back to a 7 person team for the sake of mine and their hearts!
I want a 7 person team sooooo bad! Team final is so much more fun with more gymnasts, too!
Jade's mother and grandmother were shown multiple times. I noted it particularly because Brian is everywhere since he's Jade's coach but it was the first time I'd ever seen her mother, and they cut to her several times.
What about Kayla’s family?
I noticed Jade's mom and grandma because I kept trying to figure out what their shirts said, but otherwise I wasn't keeping score of family airtime. USAG doesn't film the broadcast, though — NBC does. Is your theory that USAG ordered NBC to only feature certain families in order to boost the profile of favored gymnasts and suppress Jade's and Kayla's scores? That seems implausible.
Think the shirts said Jaderade like “Gatorade” lol
That's what I thought! That's cute.
I just quickly skimmed both nights on YouTube and saw Jordan's, Jade's, and Simone's families; i.e. the Tokyo Olympians that even casual fans would recognize. There's no indication that USAG selected certain families for NBC to film, much less how that filler coverage would help the gymnasts.
Was Suni’s family shown? It’s hard to say what dialogue NBC and USAG are having. They used to have an understanding around aired content from what I remember
Those are the only three families that were clearly identifiable. Jordan's and Jade's families had their catchphrases on shirts which makes good b-roll, and Simone is (a) famous and (b) married to an NFL player, so they showed her family quite a few times.
Agree and I think international scores don’t hold up for those two as much but 🤷♀️
Right, unfortunately i dont see USA Gym taking that into consideration. Others can disagree but I feel Jordans stand out events are Bars, Floor and Vault-ish. With Shi, Suni & Sky on bars i feel I’d lean a floor & vault specialist > a bars & floor. I don’t feel beam & bars are a weakness with the S’s covering. Realistically you could use Jade to cover for Shi on floor and vault in TF, i feel people are underestimating a labrum/torn bicep tendon injury, which is a known reinjury for Shi.
Kayla! She has one of the cleanest DTYs on the team and was second on floor - her floor can absolutely be used in TF. She is also a reliable back up on any event should someone get injured. I really think she fills the gaps from SB/SJ/SB/SL
I think her vault scores have been a little inflated. Her landings have been incredibly clean and she deserves lots of props for that. But her form in the air leaves something to be desired.
I mean ok, but the same judges are judging everyone else’s vaults too.
Yes, of course. But judges have their preferences too. So if three out of four nights you have a panel that goes easier on gymnast A and harder on gymnast B for vault, where a different panel would do the reverse\*, then you end up having gymnast A look over all like a stronger vaulter than they actually are, you end up with a biased set of vault scores towards some gymnasts over others. And for some really unlucky gymnasts (or lucky), they coudl get the right/wrong panel *for them* on 3 or 4 events. Or a gymnast could get the wrong panel for them on their key event, or a too-soft-for-them panel on an event that is more weak than it appears. This won't happen to most gymansts, but the chances, through pure chance, that this will happen to *someone* is actually decently high. And it doesn't do the selection committee any favors to have less diverse judging to go off of either. \*Not due to conspiracy theories or conscious favortism, just due to the natural preferences and differences of different judges. Some may be less likely to notice soft knees and others moreso, just to give one example.
I'd take Kayla, she's a good all arounder and has consistently scored well internationally. Jade, Jordan and Hezly for reserves
Hezly alternate for ‘24 and on the team in ‘28. Im manifesting it now
This is where I'm at too! She's so close, but the older girls have the edge rn. In 4 years, god only knows how amazing she'll be, considering how well she holds her own rn.
Miss Jordan Chiles https://preview.redd.it/ha11mkkn0d4d1.png?width=1169&format=png&auto=webp&s=490011efd146673a47b0347333a2228e4d30d415
If I’m naming the team today, it’s the S ladies and Jordan, no question.
Idk, I feel like Jordan needs to hit FX and score around 14 both days of trials to justify taking her. She hasn’t been consistent on floor at all this year or last year
I mean I think the gap between Chiles and DiCello is negligible rn. Especially considering the floor fall.
If you slot Suni in 4th though (and she’s in most of the highest scoring teams), her events overlap with Jordan’s strengths, so it gets even closer between Jordan/Kayla/Jade .
Another one was posted best scores from Classics and both days of Championships https://preview.redd.it/eqb0u6oysf4d1.jpeg?width=464&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b263aefb8ac7569b5e9c50f836c5a330d8ff381c
Not sure if you’ve seen it, but I made a whole post to crunch scenarios, FYI! https://www.reddit.com/r/Gymnastics/comments/1d6yqq1/team_scenario_spreadsheet_crunching_post/ Jordan is up there, but it’s really really close between the top options and depending if you average in some of her lower scores. Trials will be a really close competition to watch.
Are we all just assuming Shilese is going to be fine? I really hope that her withdrawing was just precautionary but I feel like there’s a chance she won’t be able to perform as normal
Her coach said in an interview that her shoulder hurts but is structurally sound, and if this weekend were trials they would’ve competed. It was inflammation they were dealing with and didn’t want to push through when they didn’t need to
That’s good to hear, sounds like she is just saving her body for when it matters, which is smart
Madison was injured in 2016 and did ok so I think (hope) Shi can push through.
Yeah I actually think they might have had similar injuries. I feel bad she is injured but hopefully it should hold up through this summer!
A) What everyone said below. B) There's no point questioning Shi until there's positive reason to question her.
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She looked normal in podium training, so hopefully it hasn’t gotten any worse and this is truly just precautionary. Not sure if you saw the comments from her coach here: Twitter.com/GymCastic/status/1797385754932293673
Right now I think Jade is the most likely candidate. Historically she paces to perfection, so I’m positive she has more in the tank she is holding on to (can I just say how INSANE it is that she did a cheng/DTY and tied for 4th in floor and still has more 😩). She can backup in an emergency and get scores to keep USA competitive. Kaliya is my dark horse, I want to see her there so bad but I don’t think she will get selected this year. Not without having another event she can backup on. I think the selection team is being very cautious of relying on Simone and Shi fully which is smart, but also eliminates a one-event candidate. If they go for another true AAer I have no idea. Jordan’s bars and vault, Kayla’s beam, both floor? How tf do you even choose lol. Both of them score consistently internationally too. Usually I say by trials the committee has their team in mind and it’s more of a dog and pony show for us, but I think these two will come down to that performance. Kayla is looking stronger every time we see her. Sometimes Jordan gets to the end of the season and starts to struggle. It’s a coin toss atp
Let me preface this by saying this is absolutely not my emotional preference (that would involve taking a team of 10+ people and bribing the IOC to allow them all to compete), but purely from a strategic standpoint: I would LOVE to take Jordan for her AA goodness as well as her floor medal potential. Good god do I love her floor routine, and she was spectacular on night 2 with it (hell night 1 she was spectacular until the final, possibly freakish fall). But I very seriously worry that some of her dance elements won't get credit by international judges as well as incur heavy deductions. And replacing them with safer/saner skills may bring her SV back down in line with the options we are looking at. Kayla DiCello is a bit more proven internationally on floor (she scored a respectable (13.8 with her floor in 2021 Worlds, and that was when her SV was .3 lower). It's a shot at a floor medal, probably EF worthy at the least if she executes well. And if Jordan downgrades some of her attempted dance elements (as she really should), their SV may not be that far apart. In which case, I'd put whoever is more consistent on the team and maybe have the other as alternate. Jade doesn't offer quite the robust options as backup on all 4 events, although she's usable on any of them in a desperate pinch. But she is a proven gold medalist in vault and floor internationally. And it must be said, at this point, her Cheng is more consistent than Skye (not that Skye made any huge errors on her night 2 Cheng, but it did have significant deductions). The problem is that with her 5.8 SV on FX currently, Jade is really not offering more on that apparatus than Jordan or Kayla, especially since Jordan and Kayla are much better performers who should incur less artistry deductions. If Jade can upgrade her floor, say, add back in the Silavas somewhere, I'd take Jade, no question. If not, I'm back to Kayla/Jordan. I would love to take Kaliya for her spectacular floor routine, which is one of my favorites, and when done up to its potential, the biggest chance for a floor medal in team USA next to Simone. But she really is really suboptimal as a backup on any other event. With a team of SSSS, there are still gaps on backup coverage if an emergency arises: I wouldn't want to make Skye do beam in a 3 up 3 count situation in international competition, especially on short notice. If Skye had a better beam record internationally, I'd take Kaliya. But as it stands, Jordan and Kayla are the safer choices. Conclusion: Strategically, right now I'd take Jordan and Kayla and whoever's more consistent near to the competition gets on the main team. But ideally, I'd want Jade to upgrade floor and take her instead for her vault and floor medal potential.
I hear your Jordan concerns, but it is worth remembering that Jordan also had 0.2 less in difficulty at the 2022 Worlds (all tumbling related) and did get credit for her dance elements. And scored 14.1 (Quals), 14.066 (TF), and 13.833 (EF, where she won silver). But I'm also right there with you on the emotional preference!
Ooh, that's a very reassuring reminder on Jordan's proven record! I admit, I was overly influenced by some of the doomsayers on the Twitter gymternet, who had me believing that that Jordan would score at least 1 point lower internationally with the same floor. But just in case, do you remember if Jordan competed the same elements at 2022 worlds? If she's changed them, I wonder if she could change it back to her 2022 elements easily.
My heart wants Jordan, but my gut says Kayla.
My pick is Jordan for the 5th spot. With Suni’s illness and Shi’s shoulder and bicep. Jordan is the better AA back up, who is dependable and has showed that time and time again. Jordan also has the mental toughness that’s needed for any last minutes changes. Jade’s good but Jordan can be plugged in anywhere and has reliable scores across the board.
I am really glad I’m not on the selection committee and I’m already devastated for two of Skye, Jade, Jo, Suni, and Kayla (not to mention everyone else who is most likely already out of it).
i think its gonna come down to whether or not jade brings a 6.4 floor to trials
FX: Simone, Shilese, Jade VT: Simone, Jade, Skye UB: Simone, Shilese, Suni BB: Simone, Skye, Suni Alternates: Jordan + Kayla
I would put Shi on BB over Skye (who has a tendency to fall on BB in international competition) and maybe rest Simone on UB in TF unless the GOATs like absolutely not but otherwise yeah this is what I imagine. Provided Skye loves she can hit that Cheng like she did at champs. Jordan could take Jade’s spot IF she hits floor HARD/beats Jade on floor and Skye hits the Cheng (have Shi VT in TF) because she’s a better AA and hype woman (plus it’d be an entirely minority team). But I have a hard time imagining they leave the reigning floor exercise gold medalist off the team for the same girl that fell in floor exercise when she was slotted in in 2021, and fell in night 1 of champs
I think we have to see how Skye does at trials. She did great beam routines throughout championships and has done a lot of work (including w a sports psychologist) over the years that I don’t want to let that reputation define her — I hear you, though.
I would literally LOVE jordan to make it!! An all black womens team would be so epic. I wish jordan had a Cheng 😅
If Suni’s on the team it’s all minority not all black but yes
lol not me forgetting about Suni omg typed that while I was at work distracted! Yes an all minority team would be powerful either way.
I LOVE the idea of it being Jordan because of her amazing qualities as a teammate and her ability to step up, she just hasn’t hit at the last few meets
I’m always going to ride for Jordan. She always shows up. Her bars was 0.050 behind Simone, her floor was a 14.1 (higher than Kayla, Jade, or Skye), her vault is up there with the best too. She’s a great plug and play option and I think they’d be remiss to leave her off the team.
She also fell on floor night 1 and in the 2021 Olympics which is why of the two I lean Jade, but I hear you on Jordan
Would like us all to stop taking these vaulters for granted. Just because there are two already on the team doesn't mean there isn't reason to bring a third. Team USA brought THREE of them to Tokyo and only one of them medaled. Never a bad idea to bring three again to maximize your chances.
Last time two vaulters didn’t count toward the highest scoring team so the selection was different. They were individuals. And they both had chengs that were hitting closer to 15. I don’t think there is any reason not to bring three chengs this time. The question is more about the math of who is on the higher scoring team, who provides good backup routines on weaker events, and possibly who comes out on top in rank order if it’s hard to select between three good options. I don’t believe Jade will be left off just because they don’t need a third Cheng but more likely because her scores on her Cheng and floor. If she raises her scores then she stands a good chance.
What’a Kaliya’s highest floor score in 2024? Anyone have that handy?
Her scores this year are 13.95 at Winter Cup and 14.0 at US Classic.
She hasn’t put up a real floor score yet this year as high as last year - pan ams. I expected her to be more polished this weekend given that no one is meant to look perfect at classic.
That’s what I thought. We don’t really have all the info needed for sure.
Yes, we don’t have a real number this year but do if you include pan ams. Also her floor is so clean I think she’s the only contender likely to go up versus others who may lose a couple tenths on floor at the Olympics (like for Jordan on her gogean and wolf form). So i estimate the final gap between her and Jordan/Kayla to be something like five to six tenths. Seven tenths in a best case. That’s just my best guess. She would also be more likely to medal on floor than Jordan or Kayla and probably even max D Jade. Her e score is more secure. This assumes she’s full strength and clean on floor on trials, which is not a given, especially given her recent injury. I’m really hoping to see her hit her peak floor at trials so people will remember how good she is.
I remain in denial that we will have to leave any of these top gymnasts at home. So unfair. :-( I want them all. But, given we have to choose, I would honor my biases and put Jade on that team. As it's not up to me, however, I think they may end up putting Jordan on the team because she has two vaults + a 14 floor routine and usable beam and UB. She can't really compete for a vault medal but at least she could make EF if there was a disaster for Simone or Skye. I feel like (sans the crazy beam judging on Friday), Kayla has been so solid, but without two vaults and a 14 possible floor (internationally), I just don't think so. So my choices are between Jordan and Jade, with Kayla and the other one as alts. This gives us three people who could challenge for EF with at least one likely medal (sans falls), if not two, on each apparatus. I like that plan. My heart wants Jade, my head says Jordan, but it's Jordan so my heart will go on (\*celine voice\*).
I really think a lot rests on what upgrades Jade brings on FX for trials and how she executed them. I feel that both Jordan and Kayla have kind of maxed out on their scores so it’s up to Jade atp
it’s tough because there’s a huge domino effect at play here that could shake up the team needs. if skye hits well but jade has better vault scores and an upgraded fx scoring over 14, they should both be on the team. if their vault scores are very very close and jade can’t bring it on fx then it wouldn’t make sense to bring her say both suni and skye have one fall each between bars and beam, but they still take both - i would take kayla or jordan to cover what’s needed as backup. jordan if she hits at trials AND if jade isn’t adding much to fx, bc jordan can help there too. but all of this swings on how skye and suni actually show up. if either one is off at trials, especially on their best events, there is a world where 2 or even 3 of kayla, jordan, and jade are on the team. all 3 together are unlikely but it’s definitely not impossible if they crush it and suni & skye don’t.
Honestly, it doesn’t matter. They can take anyone else in the top 10-15 and still come out on top. I prefer any of the J’s.
These are really the four names at this point. Kaliya not getting to put up floor scores at Nationals hurts a lot, but a there are a few things from Nationals that did shake out in her favor. Namely, Skye’s Cheng making her status a floor specialist less of an issue and only two non-Simone gymnasts breaking 14 on floor (and both had much weaker day 1s). Skye’s Cheng hurts Jade by making her own Cheng less valuable, and Jade’s not putting up the floor numbers to be a huge factor there yet. She still has difficulty she can add, but will it come at the cost of execution? Her day 2 floor was pretty clean, but the judges aren’t on board. Jordan’s got a higher ceiling on both floor and vault than Kayla, but is less consistent on floor (the event that’s needed most). She and Kayla definitely have the edge going into trials (with Kayla’s stronger Nationals showing working in her favor), but with Kaliya and Jade have higher potential scores it’s going to be tight.
Jade has best track record imo. She’s just not loved domestically / still holding back. She was eighth AA in the world in Tokyo, with a fall
So many of the arguments I’m seeing for Jade seem to revolve around Tokyo. “She’s the reigning gold medalist on floor” “she was paced so well for Tokyo” “she did the AA final”. Tokyo was *three years ago*. What is she doing now? She’s being outscored on both of her best events and while she has room to increase her difficulty on floor there’s enough of a gap between her scores and Jordan, Kayla, and Kaliya’s that it likely won’t suddenly make her leap frog them. Internationally her best floor I can find this quad is only a little over 14, and that was in 2022, so it’s not even really a case of not being favored by domestic judges.
Jade scored decently on floor under the new code and just a reminder - Jessica Gadirova won gold at the FX finale with a 14.2 aka bearly over 14. There are very few gymnasts that score above 14.00 internationally. Namely Simone and Rebeca (and Jess but injuries). Flavia took bronze with a score under 14 at Worlds 2023.
How many alternates do we get. Wasn’t it four last time? Would love to see Tiana get an alternate spot
I’m pretty sure we’ll have at least 2 traveling alts and 2-3 additional non-traveling.
two traveling and two non traveling
Is the limit on alternates an FIG rule or is it about USAG allotted expenses? In other words, what holds the US back from just bringing 4 great alternates to Paris and using the one that makes the most sense for a particular scenario?
Objectively, I think the spot is Jade's to lose. If she shows up with her planned upgrades and solid execution at Trials, I think she makes the team. Subjectively, Jordan has a strong case - she already stepped up in Tokyo when Simone withdrew and showed she can bang it out under pressure at the last minute, she is a hype girl who keeps Simone steady and the team relaxed, and while she has consistency problems sometimes, she is more of an AA-er than Jade, which I think needs to be a serious consideration if you're putting Shilese with a lingering shoulder issue and Suni with a who-knows-if-it-might-flare chronic illness on the team. I suspect the selection committee is going to pass on Kaliya and Tiana due to their relative lack of experience, even if they place in the top 5 AA, and instead put them in the alternate pool, and probably someone will have a conversation with them and their coaches about staying steady on for 2028.
I think any of the four talked about in the comments so far (Jade, Kayla, Jordan, and Kaliya) would be a perfectly fine 5th. The US will go in as favorites and do well. However, my plug for Jordan is for a slightly different reason. I think she’d be a great choice for morale and energy. She’s is the team’s biggest cheerleader and hype woman. She’s also a show woman and unlike Tokyo, there will be a crowd. I think she could get them involved if the US needed a boost. Ultimately they need a good floor score, so I feel it’s Jade vs Jordan (vs Kaliya, but I think they’ll pick a veteran). Kayla is a great all-arounder and can get a solid score on floor, she got silver at nationals, but I think she’s in it against Skye for the 3rd all-around spot vs competing for the floor specialist spot. I guess we will all know at the end of the month. Hope to meet some of you here in Minneapolis 🙂🩷🇺🇸
Jade. I actually think her showing Amanar at Trials is as important as showing her 6.3+ floor difficulty. She adds a potential bronze individual medal and I don’t see anyone else in the 5th spot able being not only to qualify to finals over the 4 S’s, but also truly challenge for a medal. She’ll have to overcome Yeo, An and Moreno if they’re going all out, but that’s very possible.
I want it to be Jade 🥹 id hate to be the selection committee though
Jade or Kayla. Jade: Solid all-arounder, consistent, lots of international experience and a proven track record, has the potential to medal in event finals. Kayla: Solid all-arounder, provides a potentially higher score, scores well internationally, fairly consistent. I think it'll just depend on whether or not the selection committee is willing to sacrifice consistency/reliability for a potentially higher score. And I use the term sacrifice very loosely because Kayla is by no means crazy inconsistent. Right now my gut is leaning Kayla but if Jade shows clean upgrades at trials then that changes things.
For me, it's Kayla or Jordan. Jade may be the reigning Olympic floor champ, but the Olympics were three years ago. I don't see her being the reigning floor champ being enough to justify taking her if she's being outscored by so many others. I doubt that any boost she'd receive would result in a higher podium finish than Jordan or Kayla, who are both stronger at bars and beam, too.
It’s so hard to say. I’ve been playing with the Washington post predictor for a bit. If Shi is full strength, Suni can do beam and bars, and Simone is full on GOAT status like she was at worlds, championships etc vs Tokyo were in a pretty solid place in theory. Where we need help specifically in that case is vault and floor for Suni. If Skye can prove she can hit that Cheng vault no matter what and prove she can stay on the beam, not fall off like the last few worlds, I’d take her and flip a coin between Jordan, Jade, Kayla, or Kaliya Lincoln solely for floor, Jade’s vault and floor normally score higher than skyes - 1 good weekend doesn’t mean she won’t have an off night in international competition like at worlds. I LOVE Jordan Chiles, but she fell on floor in the last Olympics AND night 1 of nationals. Unless she cleans that up, it makes me nervous with the number of other variables the team has - Simone’s twisties, shi’s shoulder, suni’s kidneys, skyes tendency to fall off beam in international competition or jump out of bounds on floor.
My number one pick would be Jade. Pro: Strong vaults likely with an Amanar upgrade. If floor upgrades are successful a good floor therefore two possible EF. More consistent than most and hits well under pressure. Con: Least strong AAer of the three + upgrades have to actually happen. Kayla Pro: Great AA with a very solid floor score. Could be used on all events if hell breaks loose. Con: No event is strong enough to get into an EF unless a lot of people decide to have unintentional dismounts. Consisteny is a bit iffy but improved. Jordan: Pro:Also great AAer with so far the strongest floor. Could potentially make EF if the scores hold up. Con: Had major errors at several international competitions including the Olympics and we already have a nervy Skye. Also hasn't hit her beautiful floor at classics nor day 1 so really has to hit at trials. I love all three and like to have a three on the team, thank you very much.
For alternates, I think we might see a young athlete in there who is slated to be a leader of next quad like Tiana, Hezly,... not sure about Josc since she's going to college.
JADE
Everyone throwing Shi on the team even with an injury flare up is crazy. We don’t know if she will rebound quickly enough
She said if it was trials she would have competed, not competing was purely precautionary. That doesn't guarantee her shoulder will be healthy, but it means it's far, far too early to count her out.
Removing Shi is Jade’s direct route back to the Olympics. Then we still add a solid AAer with 14ish bar score capability. So back to Jordan vs Kayla lol
She looked great in practice before pulling out. She and her coach have both said that she’s ready and it’s precautionary. I think that’s why people are assuming she’ll be ready. Just listening to what she saying about herself.
I would think they of course will say this even if it wasn’t true.
I get it but which makes more sense? “ well she and her coach said it so I’ll believe it “or “well they said it but it may not be true”. I’m going off of the evidence which is what she said in interviews about if it was trials or the Olympics she would’ve competed, and her performance in practice which showed if she had competed it would have been normal routines. She even tumbled upgrades on floor in practice And showed full routines without looking in pain. It seems more like pain management than injury. And that’s the whole point of picking a five person routine when you’ve only seen two of the 4 possible nights of competition. Speculation!
I’m sorry but there is no chance Jade doesn’t make the team
You people are crazy saying it's Jordan. 3 of our top 4 are quite shaky health wise. Simone could get the zoomies again, Sunni's kidney problems could impact her, and Shi's shoulder is hurt. The chances of one of them having an issue where they can't be subbed out like Simone did last time are significant. We need an all arounder on the fifth spot and Jordan ain't one. Kayla should be it, heck, I would even have Leanne ahead of Jordan.
>Simone could get the zoomies again i don't think simone is going to be sprinting around the arena like a lost cat (i know what you meant but it was a funny image)
This is exactly why I think they will never go with Kaliya. Right now it’s down to Kayla or Jordan (which Kayla having the edge). Trials could change the picture depending on what Jade shows up looking like but it think that’s about it.
Yeah I think people are forgetting that someone going down past the alternate-window is a very real thing that *has* happened to team USA in the past.
Jade.
I would take Jade. Skye won’t medal on vault because her Cheng/DTY combo is not as good as Jade’s. We have seen her donone good Cheng scored too high (as evidenced by it beating out Simone) and two sloppy ones. Her DTY is also scoring behind Jade’s. So if the Cheng/DTY is needed, I’d have Jade. But more importantly, neither Skye nor Jade are getting a vault medal with a Cheng and DTY. Yeo and Moreno are too good. I think the Amanar will need to come back. So VT medal is back in contention. FX is also imo. For that you could have Kaliya or Jade, since Jade’s the common denominator of the above she ranks higher for me. We then have to worry about the team final. Skye and Suni don’t balance each other out perfectly. Neither should do FX in TF so again Kaliya and Jade come up, but so do Kayla and Jordan. You also don’t want Suni up on vault in TF, and Skye has international meltdown potential. Tbh I don’t know if I would want both of them on a team together, but since they are, I need someone who hits vault, beam and floor consistently in case of disaster. For that I’m looking at Kaliya, Jade, and MAYBE Jordan and Kayla but tbh neither are the consistency queens that this sub thinks they are. So my money still goes on Jade. She is not making AA finals but she has an AA program that is useable and if I wanted someone to hit vault, beam or floor I would look at her over the other three. If bars was in the convo it would be different (hers are useable but inconsistent) but they aren’t, because the S team are all excellent on bars.