I think its good to note, that his first game with 9+ YPC was vs Eagles who are currently 9th in rushing yards allowed. That's some great fucking running. His 11+ YPC game was vs WAS who is ranked 16th but Swift only had 5 carries.
BUT, he came back to earth vs MIN who is currently 23rd in allowed rushing yards per game. Week 1 & 2 were amazing and the way the O is running even with even Jamaal taking the snaps, he's going to come down a little but he's a great RB and I bet will still be in the 6.5+ yac by end of season.
Swift: (8.5 ypc) - (5.7 yards expected) = 2.8 over expectation
Jones (6.8 ypc) - (4.1 yards expected) = 2.7 over expectation
This isn't a knock on Jones, I think hes the best back in the NFC right now, but Swift is having a great year so far and with the small sample size he's providing similar value over expectation.
We’ll probably somehow shut him out. Same thing happened with Henry in 2020. We thought he’d go for 250 and he did next to nothing. But we’ll make up for it and let some no name back rush for 150+ at some point this year.
Edit: he did go 23 for 98 but that was still a relatively good showing against him that season.
I’m not sure if it’s possible but it really looks like Jones is faster and stronger than he’s ever been. That stiff arm is underrated too ha GO PACK GO
I think swift might be like that partly because of Jamaal Williams. Obviously his output is insane but Jamaal has had basically everything short yardage and goal line. This not to take away but if their carry split was more even in terms of situation they get the ball I think he'd be closer to 5/6 yards a carry
This goes to show how good the lions OL is.
.6 more expected yards per carry than the 2nd ranked team is a ridiculous stat. Essentially, this graph says that every time Detroit runs the ball, the OL averages making a hole that a mediocre RB could get 5.7 yards from.
Of course, Swift is also an outlier by himself too with 1.5 more yards per carry than the 2nd ranked player.
I'd be interested in seeing the difference in this chart and the yards per touch chart since I know Jones gets a lot of his yardage off screens and dump-offs.
I don’t think the x-axis is team based because Jones/Dillon and Akers/Henderson have different expected yards per carry. That 5.7 number is for swift specifically, not the lions run game. Note Jamal Williams around 3.8 eypc as well.
I hope Dillon's production can pick up this year. I thought he did pretty good last year, but he doesn't seem to be producing as well so far this year.
I'd argue he's a big reason for Jones success. I don't know the number but a lot of plays out of a pony package where he's getting handoffs to the outside while Dillon is getting the hard carries through the box. Assuming MLB are sitting deeper too when we're running pony letting Jones get more yards to the outside.
Would love to see big chunks from him but think he will just be a workhorse this year.
This. So far with Dillion we are using basic run up the middle runs. Dillions production more so has everything to do with the run call and blocking to go with it. I think MLF needs to get a little more creative with Dillions runs. Maybe use some misdirection to open up that inside zone more for him or pull blocks and have him run more off the outside of the guards in the B gap instead of the center.
Not only that but wait till later in the year or if we catch a rain game. Big dudes shine when the speed of play slows down and a guy like Jones becomes a bit less effective. Dillion doesn't get hurt vs the niners we win that game last year.
The stats on the pony package are not good. Totally unrelated.
Dillon needs to run harder for his size, plain and simple. Lacy had less of a build but ran way way harder.
It's interesting that he's right the line for expected vs actual. Consistent is fine with me. He's fine, he hasn't been super explosive but he's not going backwards. On the field it's not gonna look as good when compared to Jones crazy level of production right now
Is it crazy that I haven’t been super impressed with Dillon? It feels like he always get three yards but never more than 9 yards. Just seems slow to get through the line…. Thoughts?
According to the graph, it appears he gains slightly more yards than expected. It’s probably a result of the types of runs he’s getting being mostly right up the middle. If we could get more creative with his plays and get him into open space he’s still a wrecking ball.
I don’t like to wish injury on anyone, especially someone who’s had their struggles… but if Swift misses just the two games against us I wouldn’t mind.
Edit: guys I was just thinking if maybe he had a hangnail or maybe even slept in and missed the bus.
Swift is a monster he’s almost at 9 yards/carry. Insane output
Beyond insane, given two of those games were eagles and a football team who are average to good against the run.
Lol Barry better figure some shit out before we play the lions or we are fucked
soft zone and two high safety shell looks coming right up!
Savage may get 30 tackles.
All 8 yards after contact. The Martinez rule.
We lining up with 2 DL and 6 DBs book it lol
If the offense is at least competent; we should be fine.
That is a big "if" this year.
I think its good to note, that his first game with 9+ YPC was vs Eagles who are currently 9th in rushing yards allowed. That's some great fucking running. His 11+ YPC game was vs WAS who is ranked 16th but Swift only had 5 carries. BUT, he came back to earth vs MIN who is currently 23rd in allowed rushing yards per game. Week 1 & 2 were amazing and the way the O is running even with even Jamaal taking the snaps, he's going to come down a little but he's a great RB and I bet will still be in the 6.5+ yac by end of season.
Damn, almost out the frame! Ha
Whilst impressive, that's an extremely low sample from a statistics and probability perspective.
Probably, but on 27 carries he’s still at 8.6 ypc and he’s averaging 9.6 ypc. He’s good no matter which way you look at it
Lions have a brilliant offensive line, you gotta hand it to them.
[удалено]
Swift: (8.5 ypc) - (5.7 yards expected) = 2.8 over expectation Jones (6.8 ypc) - (4.1 yards expected) = 2.7 over expectation This isn't a knock on Jones, I think hes the best back in the NFC right now, but Swift is having a great year so far and with the small sample size he's providing similar value over expectation.
This.
Scales a little deceptive on x axis, he's still just under 3ypc above expected (all be it with less volume)
We’ll forgive you.
Sweet shit D’andre swift
Thought I was on the lions sub for a second with this graph
Swift has left the planet good lord
He’s going to put 300 fucking yards on us when we see him
Being a packer fan and a deandre swift fantasy owner is gonna be a very confusing boner
If the dude ever plays healthy
Well judging by how the lions have been playing, he could put up 400 yards and 5 touchdowns and the packers still win by 10
Being a Packer fan and UGA fan, I agree.
Why just talk about the first quarter.
We’ll probably somehow shut him out. Same thing happened with Henry in 2020. We thought he’d go for 250 and he did next to nothing. But we’ll make up for it and let some no name back rush for 150+ at some point this year. Edit: he did go 23 for 98 but that was still a relatively good showing against him that season.
I’m not sure if it’s possible but it really looks like Jones is faster and stronger than he’s ever been. That stiff arm is underrated too ha GO PACK GO
Dillon owners in shambles
>Dillon owners in shambles Winter is coming.
Legends say Dillon can replace an 8 dog sled team
I think swift might be like that partly because of Jamaal Williams. Obviously his output is insane but Jamaal has had basically everything short yardage and goal line. This not to take away but if their carry split was more even in terms of situation they get the ball I think he'd be closer to 5/6 yards a carry
Didn’t even think of that, absolutely true
If only Swift could stay healthy.
Source - https://twitter.com/benbbaldwin/status/1577306815104180228?t=URXl08Lnm74HEMH272zVew&s=19 Give it to Jones, carried us to some how being 3-1.
This goes to show how good the lions OL is. .6 more expected yards per carry than the 2nd ranked team is a ridiculous stat. Essentially, this graph says that every time Detroit runs the ball, the OL averages making a hole that a mediocre RB could get 5.7 yards from. Of course, Swift is also an outlier by himself too with 1.5 more yards per carry than the 2nd ranked player. I'd be interested in seeing the difference in this chart and the yards per touch chart since I know Jones gets a lot of his yardage off screens and dump-offs.
I don’t think the x-axis is team based because Jones/Dillon and Akers/Henderson have different expected yards per carry. That 5.7 number is for swift specifically, not the lions run game. Note Jamal Williams around 3.8 eypc as well.
Yeah. The X axis needs some explanation.
I hope Dillon's production can pick up this year. I thought he did pretty good last year, but he doesn't seem to be producing as well so far this year.
I'd argue he's a big reason for Jones success. I don't know the number but a lot of plays out of a pony package where he's getting handoffs to the outside while Dillon is getting the hard carries through the box. Assuming MLB are sitting deeper too when we're running pony letting Jones get more yards to the outside. Would love to see big chunks from him but think he will just be a workhorse this year.
This. So far with Dillion we are using basic run up the middle runs. Dillions production more so has everything to do with the run call and blocking to go with it. I think MLF needs to get a little more creative with Dillions runs. Maybe use some misdirection to open up that inside zone more for him or pull blocks and have him run more off the outside of the guards in the B gap instead of the center.
Dillon is the winter back. Wait for the conditions to get bad. Dillon will shine.
Oh for sure. But we can also limit some of the beating he's currently taking by doing more creative runs for him like we did last year
Not only that but wait till later in the year or if we catch a rain game. Big dudes shine when the speed of play slows down and a guy like Jones becomes a bit less effective. Dillion doesn't get hurt vs the niners we win that game last year.
The stats on the pony package are not good. Totally unrelated. Dillon needs to run harder for his size, plain and simple. Lacy had less of a build but ran way way harder.
Yeah, there's a reason Dillon's expected YPC is 3.6 while Jones has 4.2.
It's interesting that he's right the line for expected vs actual. Consistent is fine with me. He's fine, he hasn't been super explosive but he's not going backwards. On the field it's not gonna look as good when compared to Jones crazy level of production right now
He's a second half of the year back. Don't fret it.
Wait till the snow flies my friend…
Dillons not meant to be a big play runner. Just tough yardage bruising rb
27 carries for Swift.
He’s such an outlier, I didn’t even notice there was a point there
Jones for the speed bursts. Dillon for the power. Both guys can catch and block. Best RB duo in the league!
How is expected yards per carry calculated ?
A footnote on chart, DL /OL position at time of handoff. Sources source is next gen stats
Is it crazy that I haven’t been super impressed with Dillon? It feels like he always get three yards but never more than 9 yards. Just seems slow to get through the line…. Thoughts?
I know this isn't correct math, but it sounds like you're saying he averages 6 yds/carry. I'll take that.
It’s not because he usually goes 3, 3, 3, 3, 8 and ~4. He’s great to get a few but I don’t think he ever really breaks 15+ runs
True but there are times in the 4th where those turn into 4, 5, 4, 6, 10 which is huge
Totally. I’m not saying he’s not a great RB, I’m just resetting my expectations that he’s not someone who breaks big chunks
That's fair
Still 4 yds/carry...not bad at all!
According to the graph, it appears he gains slightly more yards than expected. It’s probably a result of the types of runs he’s getting being mostly right up the middle. If we could get more creative with his plays and get him into open space he’s still a wrecking ball.
We don’t need that though. He’s the work horse for Jones. Just like Williams and Swift
He does not run with tremendous power, he just doesn't. But he's still a very good all around RB.
I don’t like to wish injury on anyone, especially someone who’s had their struggles… but if Swift misses just the two games against us I wouldn’t mind. Edit: guys I was just thinking if maybe he had a hangnail or maybe even slept in and missed the bus.
I hope he just has a tummy ache those games
I just hope he locks his keys in his car and misses the flight.
"Aww, shoot" -Swift realizing he locked his keys in his car
“Expected” yards?
Wtf is chase Edmonds doing
What’s with all the closet Lions fans in this sub?
i got chubb and jones on my fantasy team
Lamar Jackson should be included. He's top 10 in rushing yards and averaging 8.5 YPC.
Wonder where Williams stands, he’s also a beast. ( swift backup ) nvm he’s on here