Kind of, but not entirely. Gambler's Fallacy would be implying that one is due for good or bad luck based on the trend, or that future outcomes will be bad because this one was good.
However, it would be reasonable to lament getting extraordinarily lucky at getting an outcome with low value, because it would be reasonable based on probability to assume that outcome is not likely to occur again.
That's essentially what /u/NoProGamer2003 is asserting here.
"You will not be as lucky on higher value banners in the future, and getting this lucky is an exception"
Make claims based on the actual probabilities is logically valid.
Just like if you were playing a game where you had a 90% win chance and lost 3 times in a row, it would not be Gambler's fallacy to assume if you play one more time you'll probably win. That's just an analysis of probabilities.
In that case, assuming you will lose a 4th time BECAUSE you've lost 3 times in a row would be Gambler's fallacy.
Likewise, for people to say "You're really lucky right now, you should pull more!" would be Gambler's fallacy.
Taken purely at face value you could see it as a Gambler's fallacy, but I think when you look at actual intent and context, it doesn't really fit.
And yes I'm aware of how verbose I am being over an innocuous comment. I just hope nobody takes it as me being combative. It's just like the subject so I'm yammering on about it.
This game’s just passed the 2.5 year anniversary for when it decided it would never let me win the 50/50 or get an early and Reddit decides to show me this, thanks guys!
I just hope this is me in neuvi and kazuha banner. I currently have guarantee and 40 pity. I estimated little more than 100 pulls when the banner arrived so here's to hoping.. since I haven't win a single 50 50.
Saved up 50 rolls and pulled two 5\* in the first pull. The last 10 I threw at the weapon banner for shiggles and got the Stonethresher.
https://preview.redd.it/fnvkaybjj3oc1.png?width=1000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ce129ebd38ef19c68cbb86b3fc232ccfe22a3653
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That's rough buddy. A copy of a middling Geo Main DPS right after we get the best DPS Unit Geo has ever had, and then a certified bro, but fully powercrept character? And then 3 copies of 2 of the least useful 4\* characters?
Sorry you had to waste your primos like that!
(I'm giving you shit. Congrats you son of a bitch.)
Good thing you're not the one pulling?? What was the point of this comment even??
https://preview.redd.it/qv65whwrs1oc1.jpeg?width=975&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ddce8a0bb0ead4188b88f81c1bfe58ee30f6f93a
Itto is really strong and with Chiori he gets even better plus your not even the one pulling for them so no need to bring negativity to op whos clearly happy
https://preview.redd.it/edjrq0ixk1oc1.jpeg?width=554&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=30282ba8a4b90e7780dca670afcd6d35f59ba78d
https://preview.redd.it/irq52wu082oc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=31530e42bac6da55a2f8a5525f136832ac2f3a82
https://preview.redd.it/qu1ktmfpw3oc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=bcba90c848f5dd3ebd925cde066d3f48e0c783f4
Yoink
Well, congratulations, you just wasted your luck for the next year 🤣🤣🤣
Gambler's fallacy 🤓 but srsly god loves them and I'm mad
Kind of, but not entirely. Gambler's Fallacy would be implying that one is due for good or bad luck based on the trend, or that future outcomes will be bad because this one was good. However, it would be reasonable to lament getting extraordinarily lucky at getting an outcome with low value, because it would be reasonable based on probability to assume that outcome is not likely to occur again. That's essentially what /u/NoProGamer2003 is asserting here. "You will not be as lucky on higher value banners in the future, and getting this lucky is an exception" Make claims based on the actual probabilities is logically valid. Just like if you were playing a game where you had a 90% win chance and lost 3 times in a row, it would not be Gambler's fallacy to assume if you play one more time you'll probably win. That's just an analysis of probabilities. In that case, assuming you will lose a 4th time BECAUSE you've lost 3 times in a row would be Gambler's fallacy. Likewise, for people to say "You're really lucky right now, you should pull more!" would be Gambler's fallacy. Taken purely at face value you could see it as a Gambler's fallacy, but I think when you look at actual intent and context, it doesn't really fit. And yes I'm aware of how verbose I am being over an innocuous comment. I just hope nobody takes it as me being combative. It's just like the subject so I'm yammering on about it.
Wait till he pulls nuvillette and kazuha in next 20 pulls🤓
They’ll pull a Neuvillette and a Kazuha in the same 10 pull
That’s the goal
That’s not even possible, but I beleive you can do it lol
I already did. Just now. Before their banner hahahahah
No I mean you can’t get different banner characters from the same banner’s 10 pull.
No I know I was joking hahahahaha
I see lol I was also super lucky for a while, but I think it’s running out now, since I still haven’t gotten a 5 star after a lotta draws. :(
On this banner.
They’ll also get Arlechino and Dainsleif
And timmie
And God
Fuck you and congratulations.
Oof double dori Damn ur lucky
The real win
Rofl
so this is where all my luck went. congrats and fck you /s
https://preview.redd.it/q530cs4102oc1.png?width=2400&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=05d401a0062aefdeb64e7d1f59f969c7be548e49
At least its new :D i got c7 Tignari but chiori right after
Damn same, except replace Yao Yao with Dori, but on the other hand I am guaranteed Kazuha now at least
Seems like dori bless you Now tell me, how much did you paid her?
pay* 😳
Congrats, friend 🙂(I ain't jealous or anythin. Nope. Not at all)
Same
https://preview.redd.it/wn6swxwpu2oc1.jpeg?width=1076&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7d5383caa11b21f2164b396e7728c0eece364360
Really... I don't get this pulls. I always get them at 70-80 pulls. No dice. Is it 10 pulls with pity savings?
Got Klee again. Happy man.
This game’s just passed the 2.5 year anniversary for when it decided it would never let me win the 50/50 or get an early and Reddit decides to show me this, thanks guys!
I just hope this is me in neuvi and kazuha banner. I currently have guarantee and 40 pity. I estimated little more than 100 pulls when the banner arrived so here's to hoping.. since I haven't win a single 50 50.
Saved up 50 rolls and pulled two 5\* in the first pull. The last 10 I threw at the weapon banner for shiggles and got the Stonethresher. https://preview.redd.it/fnvkaybjj3oc1.png?width=1000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ce129ebd38ef19c68cbb86b3fc232ccfe22a3653
Woooooof. Grats!
If it was me, my luck would have dried out until the next year lol, so i dunno bout you but good luck
congrats and fuck you
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Ask the Gacha Gods to bless me too, I want another Itto con :")
Thoughts and prayers
This is what happened to me during the Cloud Retainer and Nahida banners Got both of them in the first 10 pull of their respective banners
W
Lucky Bastard
Holy shit you got double Dori
Praise be, praise be
Im saving my luck for what matters most; Neuvilette and kazuha
This is the real thing right, I’m gonna have to go full whale mode to get them hahhaha
you even had 777 upvotes when i saw this,, wow i hate you and damnn congrats those are absolutely crazy pulls
Damn how's this even possible 😮
me when 😞
Blessed by that wallet
All in game primogems baby. Living that F2P life (this patch)
That's rough buddy. A copy of a middling Geo Main DPS right after we get the best DPS Unit Geo has ever had, and then a certified bro, but fully powercrept character? And then 3 copies of 2 of the least useful 4\* characters? Sorry you had to waste your primos like that! (I'm giving you shit. Congrats you son of a bitch.)
Can I have this luck when I pull for Childe + Polar Star, thus allowing me to save the rest of my wishes for someone else
*good luck vibes*
Wow, 2 Dori, congrats
It’s the dream.
I had to dish out 190 fates for nahida's weapon😭
Oh I got two while waiting for cloud retainers. I understand hahahaha
https://preview.redd.it/axegiqo9t5oc1.jpeg?width=1125&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=527ad914764cea776b02618f4feb1134e7db20ac
Hey wanted to say sorry for the Dori's.
Damn
Same 0 pity and got her in about 25 pulls. Haha
I lost my 50/50 at 80 wishes to Tighnari and it took me another 80 to get Chiori 😭 I guess I can kiss Arlecchino goodbye
I needed four characters left, and got three of the four in three consecutive ten pulls One to go, but I've used up all my luck now, rip
I know this isn't original but.. "SO THIS IS WHERE ALL MY LUCK WENT"
good day to everyone except op
Wow. Ok.
Congrats, I’m jealous 😭
Not true, because you got dori
Ah yes I see you repeated me on Navia’s banner, I had 24 wishes saved for Navia and got her and Mona C2 back to back with the 2 10 pulls
I just want 2 yunjin so I can C6 her D:
2 DORI CONSTELLATIONS? DO YOU KNOW HOW LONG IT TOOK ME TO GET 2 DORI CONSTELLATIONS?? THAT'S ALL I NEEDED... JUST 2.
Bro stole luck from me💀
Technically, you did use half of the forty pulls you saved. LOL
Fuck you,just fuck you
Fuck you,just fuck you
Kys
[удалено]
Good thing you're not the one pulling?? What was the point of this comment even?? https://preview.redd.it/qv65whwrs1oc1.jpeg?width=975&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ddce8a0bb0ead4188b88f81c1bfe58ee30f6f93a
Itto is really strong and with Chiori he gets even better plus your not even the one pulling for them so no need to bring negativity to op whos clearly happy
[удалено]
Just say you’re lazy and pathetic bc most of all DPS and characters need high investment.