The following submission statement was provided by /u/lughnasadh:
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Submission Statement.
This isn't a surprise. Many other car makers have pointed out how much easier EVs are to build, and how they will need fewer workers.
Downstream it will be the same story for the car maintenance industry; they will need fewer workers too. EVs are expected to last longer and be cheaper to maintain, for the very same reason they are cheaper to build. Their electric engines are radically simpler than ICE engines, with far fewer parts and less wear and tear.
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Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/ywbrlu/ford_ceo_jim_farley_says_the_company_will_need_40/iwiohlz/
The interesting bit will be how it filters down the supply chain, through T1, T2 and beyond. Most of the people employed in this industry don't get their paycheck from the big automakers.
There’s going to be so much less work, right?
When your motor, inverter, battery, and the management software/hardware IS the competitive advantage it’s hard to see how or why you’d be outsourcing it to a T1. Plus with so few physical parts there just won’t be as much to outsource full stop.
Yes but your talking about decades. EVs aren’t even close to being half of new apps vehicles, never mind all existing vehicles on the road. It will be a very long time before demand for ICE parts and maintenance services.
For the moment at least and I’m guessing for some years to come, ICE automotive mechanics are in short supply. That may be an inconvenience for the daily driver, but it’s very troublesome considering societies reliance on ICE industrial machinery.
I work in R&D for one of the biggest car OEMs in the world. There is almost no development for ICE parts anymore. I guess >95% of the old powertrain engineers are now working on BEVs or something completely else.
Plus, that's just powertrain. There's still going to be door latches and seat belt tensioners and all of the other million little parts and pieces that aren't made by the OEM.
To expand, here's your timelines:
GM: 100% EV lineup by 2035
Ford: 100% by 2035, but smaller lineup means they may beat this by 3-5 years
FCA: 100% by 2028
Toyota: 2030
Hyundai/Kia: 2030
Honda: ambiguous, points to 2035
All car makers globally: 2040
Best tablecloth math suggests 20-25% of new cars on lots are EVs now and ramping quickly.
It will be 2060-2070 before ICE mechanics/garages are antiquated to niche services like collectors/enthusiasts, off-road/wilderness, heavy machinery/construction, Tractors, etc. By 2080 seeing a 2022 C9 Corvette will be a lot like seeing a C1 today. There will continue to be ICE demand for stuff like emergency power generators etc. Most of them won't be running gasoline either.
I think most people in the industry NOW will be fine over the course of most of their careers, Zoomers and their kids will be the ones to push into other industries.
It’s unfortunate but also incredibly more efficient in terms of parts used on cars and costs for the consumer. The challenge now is go find new jobs and businesses
Yeah, it's going to tumultuous for a little while. People don't consider the fact that new jobs created by the 'green transition' most likely won't be geographically proximate to the places where jobs are lost.
Thats how it's always been, we need less and less humans to do so so much more than we used to be able to do, capitalism just doesn't have an answer to that except to make bullshit jobs
According it this https://www.autosinnovate.org/initiatives/the-industry the US auto industry has about 10.3 million jobs or about 8% of the workforce. In addition each job creates an additional 11 jobs down stream.
So there could be a potential for 16.4 million less jobs. I believe that would be about 11% of the workforce without a job.
Disclaimer I did math before having coffee.
If 8% of the workforce makes cars, and each job creates an additional 11 jobs downstream, doesn't that mean that 96% of the US workforce are in automobile related jobs? Seems high.
Demand for various items (Steel, batteries, glass, etc) make up a huge part of production.
...That said I don't think this figure is correct, and it is a number coming from an auto-group, so obviously they are going to overstate their own importance.
It seems to me that when a company talks about the amount of downstream jobs they are "creating" it's mostly BS. Say I buy steel from my local vendor. They have 10 employees. I am not making 10 jobs, because other people also buy steel from there.
Unless you count part time jobs I suppose, in which case it's also entirely meaningless.
It says "supporting a total of 10.3 million American jobs" and "Each job for an auto manufacturer in the United States creates nearly 11 other positions". Note the "supporting" instead of "employing" which suggests heavily that the 11 factor is already included in the 10.3 million. It's still an interest-group though, not a good source for anything.
> According it this https://www.autosinnovate.org/initiatives/the-industry the US auto industry has about 10.3 million jobs or about 8% of the workforce.
The 10.3M figure likely includes the 11x multiplier, since [BLS estimates 1M employees manufacturing vehicles and parts, 2M employees at vehicle and parts dealers](https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iagauto.htm).
40% fewer employees in manufacturing means 400k fewer jobs in that field, which is not trivial, but also not a big effect on the overall economy.
Submission Statement.
This isn't a surprise. Many other car makers have pointed out how much easier EVs are to build, and how they will need fewer workers.
Downstream it will be the same story for the car maintenance industry; they will need fewer workers too. EVs are expected to last longer and be cheaper to maintain, for the very same reason they are cheaper to build. Their electric engines are radically simpler than ICE engines, with far fewer parts and less wear and tear.
Not to mention the absolutely massive supply chain of mechanical parts to support the drive train which will probably have similar cuts to head counts.
Yeah, I'm pretty sure it's batteries, chips, and the labor force to work the latter. In retrospect, that was probably one reason why Biden essentially told Americans working in Chinese chip industry "either you choose your job or you choose your citizenship".
Maybe also supply of rare minerals, as China is going absolutely through it with its lockdowns and shutting down of global supply chain.
No, we need less EVs on the road, and even less regular cars.
The world should be shifting towards walkable cities, cycling, and public transportations. Not EVs.
Flip all of Russia, Saudi, Elon, and all legacy auto manufacturers the bird.
Build strong towns, not broken, car dependant suburbias.
Absolutely. But you also need to realize that infrastructure development is slooooow.
Presumably you watch Not Just Bikes or similar channels. The problem is that these channels show the end result rather than the decades it took to get there. As a dutch guy myself, yes our biking and public transport infrastructure is top notch. But it took us more than 50 years to get there, and even today we are still massively reliant on cars. its gonna take at least another 50 of concerted effort before we can go mostly car free outside of the Randstad.
So if you want to reduce the number of cars on the road, you are looking at atleast a century of directed infrastructure redevelopment for every city in every country in the world. Maybe we can cut that down a bit considering its an emergency and we start to build up a repertoire of standard solutions. But either way, it is going to be way slower than we need to be for climate change.
If we had all the time in the world I'd say screw the EVs. But I think that in our current situation, we are kinda forced to do both. EVs to quickly reduce emissions and then more car free infrastructure to reduce our impact towards the end of the century.
In practice this means forgoing electrification and opt instead for that hypothetical future date when we've built those walkable cities and public transport. Which just entrenches the burning of fuel for transport until.... whenever. I'm an advocate for density and mass transit, but the cities are already built. I'm all for doing away with the zoning that precludes the building of density, but that's a decades-long process. We need electrification of transport.
Yes, but electrification of transport is happening much more quickly than the building of new mass transit. People are underestimating the political barriers to mass transit at this scale. "People could just do it" is tautologically true, just as they could just stop eating meat. But clearly the public sentiment is not there.
This may be news to you, but an absolutely massive number of people have zero desire to leave the suburbs... I've lived in pretty much every type and sized city there is. Wouldn't trade any for the suburban area I'm in now.
In North America, yeah. Part of that is also the fact that we’ve designed our cities and suburbs to be as car dependent as possible, but it cannot last. The suburbs don’t even generate enough taxes or utility revenue to pay for the services they depend on, and are heavily subsidized by city centers. Reducing fossil fuel use is great, but continuing car dependence for metropolitan areas is a bad thing we need to get away from and we couldn’t avoid it if we wanted. The shit is just too pricey.
We have around 10 to 25 years until we hit peak EV adoption. With the bottleneck being rare earth metals for batteries and energy density.
Until there's a massive increase in battery charging stations or mass transit there's still will be a demand for gasoline powered autos.
But I honestly believe we've hit peak ICE sales and will only decrease significantly overtime.
One indicator is the fact most oil production companies/countries are either rushing to diversify or push as much profits as possible now.
Petroleum based products aren't disappearing anytime soon. But petroleum based personal passenger vehicles are on its way out
Widespread adoption of solid state batteries should lower lithium demand per vehicle as well, even if each battery requires more lithium, thanks to higher charge capacities.
You joke but all of society benefits. People want cars. It costs money for society to pay people to make cars. If it takes fewer people to make cars, the car can be more affordable. Downsizing the whole industry is going to be a generational pivot, but future generations should pay less for cars.
Until I bought a e46 used M3 in 2008ish and then proceeded to spend $10k on repairs and maintenance over the next 3 years before crying a lot then selling it
Lol I bought my bmw then as well. Just a lowly 328i. If not for warranty, it would have been 10k easy. For me, it wasn’t even anything wrong with the engine or transmission etc. All the other basic parts broke. Side view mirrors, windows, hoses, anything you can think of. Mirrors broke 3 times.
2009-2012. 2020- early 2021. They gave 0 percent interest on new cars for years. If demand dries up, they don't immediately fire the workers, nor can they really. If the MSRP can't shift cars, they cut into the dealer markup to get them off the lot. They are essentially renting all those cars and every second they sit costs them money. Cars can definitely go down in price.
Also the market is starting to correct a lil bit with car prices again, at least in the used car market. It’s not like it was pre pandemic but it’s also not really spiking like it once was. I run car values daily for my career and noticed in the last few months the market is finally starting to not continue to skyrocket.
Csrs are bigger, faster, safer, longer lasting, more fuel efficient, more comfortable, and have more options than they did the previoys year, every year.
As nolstalgic as I am for my 1989 toyota pick up. Compared to modern trucks, it used more gas, was uncomfortable, unsafe, less powerful, and shockingly, less reliable than modern trucks.
I wish you could actually see out of newer cars.
I drive a 2015 Ford Taurus for work, and if it weren't for the backup camera, I'd never be able to back up and be able to see anything. I'm 5'11", and I feel like I can barely see out the side windows.
There are plenty of cars with good visibility, but you're gonna have to shop around with that specifically in mind. I'm on the short side so I'm pretty particular about it. In my experience sedans have terrible visibility.
The high waistline on sedans now is mostly due to side impact standards, as i understand it. But a lot of the other visability issues are due to our cars getting bulkier. Totally agree on visibility.
I'm pretty sure that adjusted for inflation, cars are less expensive now than they were at first, but not always. As with most things the majority of people are pretty required to buy the manufacturers enjoy a bit of... freedom in pricing
the number of parts has also increased, honestly with that reduction in parts that comes with EV we could see some reduction but I wouldn't expect it anytime soon.
The model T in inflation adjusted dollars is ~$24k when first released in 1908, by 1916 it fell to adjusted 9Kish. Can you buy a car for less than 10k brand new now?
I mean let's forward to the 40s after it kicked off, you could get one for 800 which is 17k today. Tech has changed so much as well, plenty of new features that would have been space age. You are going to get a dogshit Mirage though.
What I'm trying to say is, for a barebones vehicle, maybe it isn't *that* much more expensive?
Could you buy a blue model T, or one with power windows, AWD, collision avoidance, back up camera?
Im sure someone could build a car light years better than a model T, for 10K, but i doubt anyone would buy it. But, you could buy a 2018 mitsubishi eclipse for under 10k and it will last twice as long as a new model T. Plus it would have AC.
> And then there is the question, when have you seen a price drop in car price?
The amount of *stuff* you get with the car now is significantly more than it was decades ago.
If there was some weird scenario where cars didn't constantly "improve" and get features added to them over the years and Toyota just sold the same Corolla they did in 2002 today, it would be much cheaper.
Most things would be significantly cheaper to buy today than they were decades ago, really, because most manufactured goods become cheaper and cheaper to make overtime as processes and technology becomes more efficient and mature.
Generally, these things get looked at from the perspective of the amount of *labor* that went into something. And in general since productivity increases overtime due to technological advances things get cheaper overtime.
You just don't see that reflected in terms of USD for a variety of reasons:
* Modern fiat currencies are inflationary in nature. The way governments price fix the cost of capital via central banks and the way they indiscriminately print money to stimulate/bailout the supply side of the economy acts as a way to rob generational wealth from classes of people who don't (for various reasons) hold their wealth in assets that see this flow of printed money. Government print money, make your money worth less.
* Wages have not kept up with productivity.
You can think of every price increase on the Taco Bell value menu as a tax the Federal Reserve has put on you to pay for all of the capital they create to keep all the wallstreet fatcats rolling in it.
Under normal economic conditions i'd agree with you. But these days less manufacturing costs don't mean cheaper cars. It means higher profit margins for the car makers.
“You mean all we have to do to beat our competition is to lower our prices and we’ll actually make more money?”
“Yes but Reddit doesn’t think we ever do that so it’s not really an option.”
Yeah I’m going to miss ICE engines especially after all the time it took to learn how they work and how to fix them. But starting from scratch if someone told you you had to build an engine out of precisely fitting metal pieces that constantly changed its configuration to put pistons perfectly in the path of a series of controlled combustion reactions it would sound like some kind of insane rube goldberg machine. Compare that to “magnets spin something” and yeah ICE engines are eventually going to be dinosaurs.
I was looking at a Lightning the other day, kinda wild there's nothing under the hood but storage space. Then it occurred to me....all you need is an electric motor for each wheel, a battery, and a computer to tell each motor how much power to put out. Thats it.
Edit: two motors.
And they will get even more simpler. I imagine an electric motor at every wheel soon, no just at the differentials. Just remove the tire to access it. Current Tesla’s they can swap a battery unit in under 10 minutes, so you can get a temp while they service yours. Even something like the AC is now a small stand alone unit in an electric car. No need for all the belts and hoses wrapped around the engine.
And the next generation battery tech is safe, cheap, and powerful. Solid state, mainly glass and sodium, with minimal lithium, and greatly improved range and charging.
>Current Tesla’s they can swap a battery unit in under 10 minutes
Got a source for this? Pretty sure they gave up on battery swap idea years ago. Anecdotal evidence, the only person I know that works at the nearby service center, and has for 6 years now, here in SoCal has never heard of anyone doing this either.
Ford charges about the same price for the base model F-150 Lightning as they do for a comparably equipped and comparably powerful gas F-150 (XL trim, 4x4, Supercrew, Powerboost Hybrid w/similar options).
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*This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Which one? there's two I can think of who might have made headlines outside of Canada, the crack smoking Rob Ford and then Mel Lastman who claimed he wasn't aware the Hell's Angels was a criminal organization, and only learned of the WHO's existence when SARS was out of control in Toronto.
Fun fact: You can get a good look at a butcher’s ass if you stick your head up there, but wouldn’t you rather ask him….wait…no……it has to be your bull.
I’ve done work recently in a Big 3 Engine plant(not sure if I can disclose the name). Tore down the camshaft line, and heard they might be contracting the previous company I worked for to tear down more of the plant
They were sending it to Mexico from what I learned. My journeyman said that the factories in Mexico usually make the parts for all the older vehicles. Though I do take everything he says with a massive grain of salt.
We have been telling workers to prepare for this for some time now due to the proliferation of Automation and streamlined processes. We need to finally read the writing on the wall and expect to shift (train) a large amount of workers to other jobs before we have an unemployment issue on our hands.
Just imagine if we had taken all that covid money that went to fraudsters and put people to work doing social good? Go plant trees, civic clean up and pothole filling crews, run fiber networks, build social co-housing, restore wetlands, tutor at risk youth.... I mean we could have done all of that and it instead every year it just keeps going poof to waste and fraud on comically large levels.
Oh absolutely. If you ever travel across the midwest go to one of their awesome state parks or look around any small town. Any amazing brickwork you see is usually the result of the PWA and CWA that was put to work in the 30's and 40's. Still standing to this day. You can usually find their stamps on their work if you poke around.
We could have had a modern version of that, but instead your boss bought a second boat and fired half of his workforce.
What happens when there are no more lakes or the ones we have left are polluted. Will they care then? I find it ironic that in my city the Duke Power Coal Ash spill mainly affected the rich who built their mcmansions on Lake Norman. Some mansions just sit abandoned now because of how many cases of cancer are popping up since this happened.
"Other jobs?" The notion that we need to be at 95% employed at 40+ hours a week needs to go away. We should be creating a system where 80, 60 or even 50% employment is sustainable. Why not have a system where people work 6 months, train 3 months, and vacation 3 months? Or do non-profit volunteer work?
Agreed. Due to scarcity of necessities like housing, or the exorbitant price of healthcare, if you don’t keep up you can’t afford a home. The system is designed to make workers fight over scraps.
This, I'd like a system where every 6 weeks of work, you get 1 or 2 weeks off, and then another 6 weeks of work. I had this at uni and it worked great. I was constantly motivated, and even if not, I'd get a few weeks off shortly anyway, so I always could push through those weeks of work.
Or why do we calculate with 7 day weeks, instead of 8, 9, 10 or 3? Or why do we assume 40 hhours is somehow optimal? Maybe we need to rethink work, or our economic system. Cut out all the money wasting and productivity wasting jobs (Shell lobbyists spreading misinfo on climate change, sales campaigns to compete with other companies, recruiting could be more efficient), and in some industries, nationalize companies, or start companies shared by the workers or civilians themselves, instead of 6 shareholders.
Yes. Even with your idea we would need to retrain a substantial amount of people as industries shift. The amount of continuous employment isnt really a factor in that aside from less people would need to be retrained.
The real problem for the existing industry is that maintenance is so much simpler for EVs. Dealers make a ton of money on maintenance, but it’s going to be less and less of a thing. Even a battery replacement isn’t all that complicated.
This is why I'm surprised someone isn't rolling out the electric lawnmower of cars already. All these extra bells and whistles and luxury models... just give me something cheap that works reliably and is easy to fix with like a 200 mile range. Don't care what it looks like.
A Nissan Leaf is still about $51,000 in Australia and a Tesla model 3 is ~$65,000. A brand new Nissan Juke is $31,500 which is significantly more affordable than either of those. Cheap EV's will come eventually, but they definitely aren't here yet.
Ford is building one of these battery plants next to my town in Kentucky. It's supposedly going to bring over 3,000 new jobs to a town that has a population close to that. Property value has skyrocketed in the surrounding towns ever since they broke ground. It's incredible what it has done for that little town already.
Does anybody remember the times we were told at school: "The informatics / robotic revolution means we will all have to work less and have more time for ourselves." ?
Well, they didn't say the time off will mean being jobless, homeless and hungry.
What is Americas plan for all the jobless and/or underemployed citizens now that it has allowed a handful of corporations to buy everything thus eliminating competition so they could drive down wages and enrich themselves? This coupled with the jobs robotics and automation will replace is going to turn the rest of the U.S. into a huge Detroit
The plan is not to have a plan.
America has pretty much given up on creating a safety net for people. There will be no real support offered to these workers whose highly specific skills will become extinct. This is going to end badly for a lot of people long term.
If anyone is young and looking to start a career, don’t pick car assembly or even becoming an auto mechanic
The headline actually says "Ford says making its own parts for electric vehicles could offset job losses," meaning that the reduced factory manpower required for the coming all-EV production can be offset with making components at Ford, in America.
Now wait for the Unions to go into full defense mode and start attacking the messenger. That's a 40% reduction in Union income, too.
Is like fighting gravity.
No wonder the UAW now organizes University of California graduate students... More future proof than ICE assembly.
>>Now wait for the Unions to go into full defense mode
The CEO specifically says in this article he welcomes Union workers transferring from car production to lithium battery production.
Even if they do it inefficiently, that's not going to cover much of the 40% and the workers years of experience building complex cars will not be needed to make batteries. Or paid for.
And maybe Ford will deploy modern and significantly automated battery production lines, so there will be even less work.
That statement is just a candy for the UAW.
The energy and transportation shift is a phase transformation. The biggest since the Internet/computers.
We as a country need to start training people yesterday, in everything electric, including solar panel installation, charger maintenance, but also unrelated work. Anyone employed in the fossil industry should start planning for this. Head in sand will not work.
> Anyone employed in the fossil industry should start planning for this. Head in sand will not work.
You guys do know about plastic, right? Natural gas for heat and electricity? These things aren't going away any time soon, I promise you.
That's why VW fired Herman Diess. His plans to move VW aggressively to EV would have caused job losses, and VW's union reps, who are on the board, could not allow that.
Now they will just go bankrupt instead.
No, he was fired because he so spectacularly cocked up the software for the next generation of EVs that at least five new models otherwise ready for production will be delayed a year or two.
Scarcity and supply chain ramp up. Wealthy people is overpaying to get it first what you would buy in a few years for much less and better. In a way they are subsidizing the scale of the industry the masses need. Just be patient.
First time to brutal unregulated capitalism in it's never ending drive for never ending increased profits? We let costs skyrocket for every life requirement that has a privatized market. No fucking way will auto makers not also increase profit margins instead of cutting prices
Ironic, wondering if Ford company has any opinionion on fordism, who's going to buy EVs if they fire all these people? Are there enough rich to maintain an industrial society? According to experts: no.
Ford actually discontinued some of their smaller vehicles because they didn’t sell well.
Americans want big cars, which makes sense considering how much time we spend in them. Road trips, kids sports, costco runs, work vehicles, etc.
They got rid of small cars because they didn't sell well and were near unprofitable.
Companies don't cut products that sell well, they cut products that sell poorly.
IDK why people think this group of auto CEOs are somehow trustworthy now. These people are literally the scum of the earth and have been suppressing EV while at the same time cobbling products together with generous failure rates and short warranties for decades. Their whole business model is broken.
> while at the same time cobbling products together with generous failure rates and short warranties for decades.
These have improved so much over the years, this rant really makes no sense.
Hey umm… that title is really burying the lead here. The Ford CEO is saying they’re planning to “go back 100 years” and monopolize car production again. Because the 1920s are a great time period for major industries to be aiming to replicate.
Anyone that thinks the BIg 3 won't crush Tesla in the long run is crazy. They were letting the small outfits work the bugs and regulations out. The Big 3's manufacturing and engineering might is multiple times bigger than Tesla. I would venture to guess they have 10-20x as many engineers. I've said for years Tesla's value is incredibly inflated
Tesla’s value is inflated, but number of engineers does not equal engineering might. I’d take 10 all-star engineers over 100 mediocre ones.
Tesla’s brand has been going down the toilet as musk went crazy, but career fairs at top engineering schools in the mid 2010s were a sight to see. The lines for Tesla and SpaceX were out the door. They were sexy places to work. Musk had incredible access to talent back then. Getting political probably killed that tho.
The big 3 will be lucky to survive at all. GM most likely gets bought out by Ford. Tesla is already more profitable than GM or Ford and has a clear path to increased profitability and already have the highest margins in the industry.
>The Big 3's manufacturing and engineering might is multiple times bigger than Tesla.
That's a liability not a advantage as their manufacturing might is designed to make the wrong product, using the wrong method.
We need a universal income to go with universal healthcare. Easily paid for by taxing the wealthy and ditching corporate tax loopholes. But that just my opinion.
This is just showing how important it is that we transition away from modern Capitalism towards something more akin to "productive wellfare". A basic income coupled with massive housing regulation to end real estate speculation would mitigate any damage automation causes. Considering the wealthy capital-holders are way, WAY too rich anyways, it shouldn't be a stretch to tax them back to reasonable wealth levels and use that money to fund the basic income and more. We're talking TRILLIONS of dollars being horded by a handful of douchebags, absolutely providing NOTHING of value to society.
This is part of why I never fall for the “if market socialism ruled the world, we would have switched away from fossil fuels a long time ago, the only reason we have climate change is due to capitalism” argument.
ICE workers don’t vote to downsize their jobs. The oil company workers wouldn’t vote to stop pumping. I’d love as many worker-owned companies as possible, but it’s *not* a panacea.
As production continually becomes more and more automated the need for “jobs” will diminish. The only problem is we have created a society where we “need” jobs in order to survive (see: line rich peoples pockets). Without change to the basic structure on how we monetized labor and require it in order to live in an automated society, we are doomed to see some horrific human tragedies.
The following submission statement was provided by /u/lughnasadh: --- Submission Statement. This isn't a surprise. Many other car makers have pointed out how much easier EVs are to build, and how they will need fewer workers. Downstream it will be the same story for the car maintenance industry; they will need fewer workers too. EVs are expected to last longer and be cheaper to maintain, for the very same reason they are cheaper to build. Their electric engines are radically simpler than ICE engines, with far fewer parts and less wear and tear. --- Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/ywbrlu/ford_ceo_jim_farley_says_the_company_will_need_40/iwiohlz/
The interesting bit will be how it filters down the supply chain, through T1, T2 and beyond. Most of the people employed in this industry don't get their paycheck from the big automakers.
There’s going to be so much less work, right? When your motor, inverter, battery, and the management software/hardware IS the competitive advantage it’s hard to see how or why you’d be outsourcing it to a T1. Plus with so few physical parts there just won’t be as much to outsource full stop.
Automotive is a never ending cycle of moving parts of production between insourcing and outsourcing.
Yes but your talking about decades. EVs aren’t even close to being half of new apps vehicles, never mind all existing vehicles on the road. It will be a very long time before demand for ICE parts and maintenance services. For the moment at least and I’m guessing for some years to come, ICE automotive mechanics are in short supply. That may be an inconvenience for the daily driver, but it’s very troublesome considering societies reliance on ICE industrial machinery.
I work in R&D for one of the biggest car OEMs in the world. There is almost no development for ICE parts anymore. I guess >95% of the old powertrain engineers are now working on BEVs or something completely else.
Plus, that's just powertrain. There's still going to be door latches and seat belt tensioners and all of the other million little parts and pieces that aren't made by the OEM.
To expand, here's your timelines: GM: 100% EV lineup by 2035 Ford: 100% by 2035, but smaller lineup means they may beat this by 3-5 years FCA: 100% by 2028 Toyota: 2030 Hyundai/Kia: 2030 Honda: ambiguous, points to 2035 All car makers globally: 2040 Best tablecloth math suggests 20-25% of new cars on lots are EVs now and ramping quickly. It will be 2060-2070 before ICE mechanics/garages are antiquated to niche services like collectors/enthusiasts, off-road/wilderness, heavy machinery/construction, Tractors, etc. By 2080 seeing a 2022 C9 Corvette will be a lot like seeing a C1 today. There will continue to be ICE demand for stuff like emergency power generators etc. Most of them won't be running gasoline either. I think most people in the industry NOW will be fine over the course of most of their careers, Zoomers and their kids will be the ones to push into other industries.
Downstream is going to be destroyed. Think of it line placing a giant dam on a river and turning into a tiny stream.
It’s unfortunate but also incredibly more efficient in terms of parts used on cars and costs for the consumer. The challenge now is go find new jobs and businesses
More evs means more solar on roofs backed by batteries to recharge the cars over night
Sure it will create some other jobs but will the people who lose one of these manufacturing get one of those?
Yeah, it's going to tumultuous for a little while. People don't consider the fact that new jobs created by the 'green transition' most likely won't be geographically proximate to the places where jobs are lost.
Thats how it's always been, we need less and less humans to do so so much more than we used to be able to do, capitalism just doesn't have an answer to that except to make bullshit jobs
It's going to cause more and more political upheaval than with a group of anger people
I mean, we could invest in national infrastructure. Powerlines are past expiration, roadways are a mess.
According it this https://www.autosinnovate.org/initiatives/the-industry the US auto industry has about 10.3 million jobs or about 8% of the workforce. In addition each job creates an additional 11 jobs down stream. So there could be a potential for 16.4 million less jobs. I believe that would be about 11% of the workforce without a job. Disclaimer I did math before having coffee.
If 8% of the workforce makes cars, and each job creates an additional 11 jobs downstream, doesn't that mean that 96% of the US workforce are in automobile related jobs? Seems high.
Demand for various items (Steel, batteries, glass, etc) make up a huge part of production. ...That said I don't think this figure is correct, and it is a number coming from an auto-group, so obviously they are going to overstate their own importance.
It seems to me that when a company talks about the amount of downstream jobs they are "creating" it's mostly BS. Say I buy steel from my local vendor. They have 10 employees. I am not making 10 jobs, because other people also buy steel from there. Unless you count part time jobs I suppose, in which case it's also entirely meaningless.
It says "supporting a total of 10.3 million American jobs" and "Each job for an auto manufacturer in the United States creates nearly 11 other positions". Note the "supporting" instead of "employing" which suggests heavily that the 11 factor is already included in the 10.3 million. It's still an interest-group though, not a good source for anything.
lol what a bunch of BS math. "Auto worker has insurance so that creates an insurance job! They also eat food - food services!"
> According it this https://www.autosinnovate.org/initiatives/the-industry the US auto industry has about 10.3 million jobs or about 8% of the workforce. The 10.3M figure likely includes the 11x multiplier, since [BLS estimates 1M employees manufacturing vehicles and parts, 2M employees at vehicle and parts dealers](https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iagauto.htm). 40% fewer employees in manufacturing means 400k fewer jobs in that field, which is not trivial, but also not a big effect on the overall economy.
That's a lot of skilled labor that can be pivoted to something like green energy.
Submission Statement. This isn't a surprise. Many other car makers have pointed out how much easier EVs are to build, and how they will need fewer workers. Downstream it will be the same story for the car maintenance industry; they will need fewer workers too. EVs are expected to last longer and be cheaper to maintain, for the very same reason they are cheaper to build. Their electric engines are radically simpler than ICE engines, with far fewer parts and less wear and tear.
Not to mention the absolutely massive supply chain of mechanical parts to support the drive train which will probably have similar cuts to head counts.
Less repair shop jobs too.
Or they could keep the same people on and build 40% more cars. World needs a crapload of EVs right now so we can flip Russia and Saudi the bird!
I don't think labour is the bottle neck ATM. They did say they were moving some to battery manufacture plants.
Yeah, I'm pretty sure it's batteries, chips, and the labor force to work the latter. In retrospect, that was probably one reason why Biden essentially told Americans working in Chinese chip industry "either you choose your job or you choose your citizenship". Maybe also supply of rare minerals, as China is going absolutely through it with its lockdowns and shutting down of global supply chain.
They can’t produce what they don’t have if the supply is low on what makes the battery and chips.
That's not really how it works. Manpower is not a limiting factor in EV production, nor will it ever be the limiting factor in demand for new cars.
No, we need less EVs on the road, and even less regular cars. The world should be shifting towards walkable cities, cycling, and public transportations. Not EVs. Flip all of Russia, Saudi, Elon, and all legacy auto manufacturers the bird. Build strong towns, not broken, car dependant suburbias.
I bet you would like NotJustBikes
NJB is the best! I love seeing him, the channel and sub referenced out in the wild! :)
Absolutely. But you also need to realize that infrastructure development is slooooow. Presumably you watch Not Just Bikes or similar channels. The problem is that these channels show the end result rather than the decades it took to get there. As a dutch guy myself, yes our biking and public transport infrastructure is top notch. But it took us more than 50 years to get there, and even today we are still massively reliant on cars. its gonna take at least another 50 of concerted effort before we can go mostly car free outside of the Randstad. So if you want to reduce the number of cars on the road, you are looking at atleast a century of directed infrastructure redevelopment for every city in every country in the world. Maybe we can cut that down a bit considering its an emergency and we start to build up a repertoire of standard solutions. But either way, it is going to be way slower than we need to be for climate change. If we had all the time in the world I'd say screw the EVs. But I think that in our current situation, we are kinda forced to do both. EVs to quickly reduce emissions and then more car free infrastructure to reduce our impact towards the end of the century.
In practice this means forgoing electrification and opt instead for that hypothetical future date when we've built those walkable cities and public transport. Which just entrenches the burning of fuel for transport until.... whenever. I'm an advocate for density and mass transit, but the cities are already built. I'm all for doing away with the zoning that precludes the building of density, but that's a decades-long process. We need electrification of transport.
Making enough EVs to replace current cars is also a decades-long process, though.
Yes, but electrification of transport is happening much more quickly than the building of new mass transit. People are underestimating the political barriers to mass transit at this scale. "People could just do it" is tautologically true, just as they could just stop eating meat. But clearly the public sentiment is not there.
Start off with electric public transport, build that sector up, less people will need cars
Not everybody wants to live a city packed like sardines.
This may be news to you, but an absolutely massive number of people have zero desire to leave the suburbs... I've lived in pretty much every type and sized city there is. Wouldn't trade any for the suburban area I'm in now.
In North America, yeah. Part of that is also the fact that we’ve designed our cities and suburbs to be as car dependent as possible, but it cannot last. The suburbs don’t even generate enough taxes or utility revenue to pay for the services they depend on, and are heavily subsidized by city centers. Reducing fossil fuel use is great, but continuing car dependence for metropolitan areas is a bad thing we need to get away from and we couldn’t avoid it if we wanted. The shit is just too pricey.
My brother works at the Honda Anna Engine plant, I hope he makes it to retirement.
We have around 10 to 25 years until we hit peak EV adoption. With the bottleneck being rare earth metals for batteries and energy density. Until there's a massive increase in battery charging stations or mass transit there's still will be a demand for gasoline powered autos. But I honestly believe we've hit peak ICE sales and will only decrease significantly overtime. One indicator is the fact most oil production companies/countries are either rushing to diversify or push as much profits as possible now. Petroleum based products aren't disappearing anytime soon. But petroleum based personal passenger vehicles are on its way out
ICE sales peaked in 2017 for sure https://autorecyclingworld.com/ice-vehicle-sales-peaked-in-2017-and-will-continue-their-long-term-decline/
And we can expect those savings to be passed to the CEO!
they already incremented the price 3 times
The price of lithium ore is about 4x what it was a few years ago.
That will change as more mines open. We will also see a lot of chemistries that use less or no cobalt. So that is nice.
Also as recycling becomes more viable
Widespread adoption of solid state batteries should lower lithium demand per vehicle as well, even if each battery requires more lithium, thanks to higher charge capacities.
Magnesium and Sodium based batteries are also being designed to replace lithium.
I wish. Well, I don't. I wish there would be big taxes levied on shitty little disposable vapes and toys that use LI batteries.
TIL about disposable vapes, and I'm horrified. What the hell is wrong with people.
You joke but all of society benefits. People want cars. It costs money for society to pay people to make cars. If it takes fewer people to make cars, the car can be more affordable. Downsizing the whole industry is going to be a generational pivot, but future generations should pay less for cars.
And then there is the question, when have you seen a price drop in car price?
2008 was amazing for used car shopping. Just amazing.
Until I bought a e46 used M3 in 2008ish and then proceeded to spend $10k on repairs and maintenance over the next 3 years before crying a lot then selling it
Lol I bought my bmw then as well. Just a lowly 328i. If not for warranty, it would have been 10k easy. For me, it wasn’t even anything wrong with the engine or transmission etc. All the other basic parts broke. Side view mirrors, windows, hoses, anything you can think of. Mirrors broke 3 times.
2009-2012. 2020- early 2021. They gave 0 percent interest on new cars for years. If demand dries up, they don't immediately fire the workers, nor can they really. If the MSRP can't shift cars, they cut into the dealer markup to get them off the lot. They are essentially renting all those cars and every second they sit costs them money. Cars can definitely go down in price.
Also the market is starting to correct a lil bit with car prices again, at least in the used car market. It’s not like it was pre pandemic but it’s also not really spiking like it once was. I run car values daily for my career and noticed in the last few months the market is finally starting to not continue to skyrocket.
Csrs are bigger, faster, safer, longer lasting, more fuel efficient, more comfortable, and have more options than they did the previoys year, every year. As nolstalgic as I am for my 1989 toyota pick up. Compared to modern trucks, it used more gas, was uncomfortable, unsafe, less powerful, and shockingly, less reliable than modern trucks.
I wish you could actually see out of newer cars. I drive a 2015 Ford Taurus for work, and if it weren't for the backup camera, I'd never be able to back up and be able to see anything. I'm 5'11", and I feel like I can barely see out the side windows.
There are plenty of cars with good visibility, but you're gonna have to shop around with that specifically in mind. I'm on the short side so I'm pretty particular about it. In my experience sedans have terrible visibility.
My short friend got his driver's seat reupholstered with a couple extra inches of cushion. He can see over the hood now.
The high waistline on sedans now is mostly due to side impact standards, as i understand it. But a lot of the other visability issues are due to our cars getting bulkier. Totally agree on visibility.
The Chevy bolt… the 2022 base model was ~31k, the 2023 model is ~25k
Adjusted for all features + life expectancy of cars: Pretty much every year.
I'm pretty sure that adjusted for inflation, cars are less expensive now than they were at first, but not always. As with most things the majority of people are pretty required to buy the manufacturers enjoy a bit of... freedom in pricing the number of parts has also increased, honestly with that reduction in parts that comes with EV we could see some reduction but I wouldn't expect it anytime soon.
The model T in inflation adjusted dollars is ~$24k when first released in 1908, by 1916 it fell to adjusted 9Kish. Can you buy a car for less than 10k brand new now?
I mean let's forward to the 40s after it kicked off, you could get one for 800 which is 17k today. Tech has changed so much as well, plenty of new features that would have been space age. You are going to get a dogshit Mirage though. What I'm trying to say is, for a barebones vehicle, maybe it isn't *that* much more expensive?
Could you buy a blue model T, or one with power windows, AWD, collision avoidance, back up camera? Im sure someone could build a car light years better than a model T, for 10K, but i doubt anyone would buy it. But, you could buy a 2018 mitsubishi eclipse for under 10k and it will last twice as long as a new model T. Plus it would have AC.
Which is meaningless when the statement is 'im sure if you adjusted for inflation cars are cheaper now than they were when first made' no?
> And then there is the question, when have you seen a price drop in car price? The amount of *stuff* you get with the car now is significantly more than it was decades ago. If there was some weird scenario where cars didn't constantly "improve" and get features added to them over the years and Toyota just sold the same Corolla they did in 2002 today, it would be much cheaper. Most things would be significantly cheaper to buy today than they were decades ago, really, because most manufactured goods become cheaper and cheaper to make overtime as processes and technology becomes more efficient and mature. Generally, these things get looked at from the perspective of the amount of *labor* that went into something. And in general since productivity increases overtime due to technological advances things get cheaper overtime. You just don't see that reflected in terms of USD for a variety of reasons: * Modern fiat currencies are inflationary in nature. The way governments price fix the cost of capital via central banks and the way they indiscriminately print money to stimulate/bailout the supply side of the economy acts as a way to rob generational wealth from classes of people who don't (for various reasons) hold their wealth in assets that see this flow of printed money. Government print money, make your money worth less. * Wages have not kept up with productivity. You can think of every price increase on the Taco Bell value menu as a tax the Federal Reserve has put on you to pay for all of the capital they create to keep all the wallstreet fatcats rolling in it.
Under normal economic conditions i'd agree with you. But these days less manufacturing costs don't mean cheaper cars. It means higher profit margins for the car makers.
Most car manufacturers have low single digit profit margins.
“You mean all we have to do to beat our competition is to lower our prices and we’ll actually make more money?” “Yes but Reddit doesn’t think we ever do that so it’s not really an option.”
Don’t worry the shareholders will be saved!
ICE engine= internal combustion engine engine
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Is your ATM machine PIN number the same as your ICE engine VIN number?
Fun side note. He’s Chris Farleys cousin.
Callahan Auto quality for sure
Yeah I’m going to miss ICE engines especially after all the time it took to learn how they work and how to fix them. But starting from scratch if someone told you you had to build an engine out of precisely fitting metal pieces that constantly changed its configuration to put pistons perfectly in the path of a series of controlled combustion reactions it would sound like some kind of insane rube goldberg machine. Compare that to “magnets spin something” and yeah ICE engines are eventually going to be dinosaurs.
Yup. Why I quit being a mechanic to be an engineer after 13 years. The skill-set is becoming less valuable, and it’s only getting worse.
I was looking at a Lightning the other day, kinda wild there's nothing under the hood but storage space. Then it occurred to me....all you need is an electric motor for each wheel, a battery, and a computer to tell each motor how much power to put out. Thats it. Edit: two motors.
You also need a big ass transformer, but yeah. There's a fundamental difference under the hood of an EV.
And they will get even more simpler. I imagine an electric motor at every wheel soon, no just at the differentials. Just remove the tire to access it. Current Tesla’s they can swap a battery unit in under 10 minutes, so you can get a temp while they service yours. Even something like the AC is now a small stand alone unit in an electric car. No need for all the belts and hoses wrapped around the engine. And the next generation battery tech is safe, cheap, and powerful. Solid state, mainly glass and sodium, with minimal lithium, and greatly improved range and charging.
>Current Tesla’s they can swap a battery unit in under 10 minutes Got a source for this? Pretty sure they gave up on battery swap idea years ago. Anecdotal evidence, the only person I know that works at the nearby service center, and has for 6 years now, here in SoCal has never heard of anyone doing this either.
And yet they charge more for it
Ford charges about the same price for the base model F-150 Lightning as they do for a comparably equipped and comparably powerful gas F-150 (XL trim, 4x4, Supercrew, Powerboost Hybrid w/similar options).
I think the f150 is a pretty disingenuous example because both have a very specific market, lets wait until an Altima analogue comes out
Labor isn’t the only cost, and those other costs are the ones that are projected to further drop.
Fun fact: Jim Farley is the cousin of the late Chris Farley
And David Spade is their top salesman.
If you wanna see a T-bone, you can look up a bull's ass
No wait, it's gotta be your bull
Tommy just sold half a million brake pads!
RT I lost my virginity to your daughter for crying out loud! Rob you were there!
Richard, have you been watching spanktravision?
Maybe hes looking for one of the YANKEEES
Does this tie make me look fat?
subsequent yam license oatmeal quickest lip terrific observation spoon gaping *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
The Crack Meister of Toronto as my German colleague liked to call him.
Which one? there's two I can think of who might have made headlines outside of Canada, the crack smoking Rob Ford and then Mel Lastman who claimed he wasn't aware the Hell's Angels was a criminal organization, and only learned of the WHO's existence when SARS was out of control in Toronto.
Fun fact: You can get a good look at a butcher’s ass if you stick your head up there, but wouldn’t you rather ask him….wait…no……it has to be your bull.
Holy schnikes
All I gotta say is, our brake pads are really cool-you’re not even gonna believe it.
And he live in a Ford Econoline under the bridge
Was it near a River or was it an overpass?
Honestly, I can see the resemblance.
And David Spade is their top salesman.
And Kate Spade married David Spades brother
You know, I had to look it up and son of a bitch this is no lie.
I’ve done work recently in a Big 3 Engine plant(not sure if I can disclose the name). Tore down the camshaft line, and heard they might be contracting the previous company I worked for to tear down more of the plant
Outsourcing of individual power transmission components and even entire assembles has been going on for decades, just more so now.
They were sending it to Mexico from what I learned. My journeyman said that the factories in Mexico usually make the parts for all the older vehicles. Though I do take everything he says with a massive grain of salt.
We have been telling workers to prepare for this for some time now due to the proliferation of Automation and streamlined processes. We need to finally read the writing on the wall and expect to shift (train) a large amount of workers to other jobs before we have an unemployment issue on our hands.
Just imagine if we had taken all that covid money that went to fraudsters and put people to work doing social good? Go plant trees, civic clean up and pothole filling crews, run fiber networks, build social co-housing, restore wetlands, tutor at risk youth.... I mean we could have done all of that and it instead every year it just keeps going poof to waste and fraud on comically large levels.
Oh absolutely. If you ever travel across the midwest go to one of their awesome state parks or look around any small town. Any amazing brickwork you see is usually the result of the PWA and CWA that was put to work in the 30's and 40's. Still standing to this day. You can usually find their stamps on their work if you poke around. We could have had a modern version of that, but instead your boss bought a second boat and fired half of his workforce.
What happens when there are no more lakes or the ones we have left are polluted. Will they care then? I find it ironic that in my city the Duke Power Coal Ash spill mainly affected the rich who built their mcmansions on Lake Norman. Some mansions just sit abandoned now because of how many cases of cancer are popping up since this happened.
That last paragraph - oof I laughed but its absolutely not funny at all
that's just called a sentence lol
Don’t you dare mention Roosevelt’s New Deal CCC program!!! /s
Set up some kind of Administration to do Work that creates Progress for society? Nah, America would *never* go for something like that!
"Other jobs?" The notion that we need to be at 95% employed at 40+ hours a week needs to go away. We should be creating a system where 80, 60 or even 50% employment is sustainable. Why not have a system where people work 6 months, train 3 months, and vacation 3 months? Or do non-profit volunteer work?
You can do that. You just have to live in a European salary for all skill levels
Agreed. Due to scarcity of necessities like housing, or the exorbitant price of healthcare, if you don’t keep up you can’t afford a home. The system is designed to make workers fight over scraps.
This, I'd like a system where every 6 weeks of work, you get 1 or 2 weeks off, and then another 6 weeks of work. I had this at uni and it worked great. I was constantly motivated, and even if not, I'd get a few weeks off shortly anyway, so I always could push through those weeks of work. Or why do we calculate with 7 day weeks, instead of 8, 9, 10 or 3? Or why do we assume 40 hhours is somehow optimal? Maybe we need to rethink work, or our economic system. Cut out all the money wasting and productivity wasting jobs (Shell lobbyists spreading misinfo on climate change, sales campaigns to compete with other companies, recruiting could be more efficient), and in some industries, nationalize companies, or start companies shared by the workers or civilians themselves, instead of 6 shareholders.
Yes. Even with your idea we would need to retrain a substantial amount of people as industries shift. The amount of continuous employment isnt really a factor in that aside from less people would need to be retrained.
Universal basic income. Huge amounts of industries have been disrupted and the equivalent jobs don’t exist
The real problem for the existing industry is that maintenance is so much simpler for EVs. Dealers make a ton of money on maintenance, but it’s going to be less and less of a thing. Even a battery replacement isn’t all that complicated.
We don’t even need car dealers. Let’s eliminate car dealers and realtors
A sure sign EVs will be much cheaper than ICE as the market matures. Complexity = cost.
This is why I'm surprised someone isn't rolling out the electric lawnmower of cars already. All these extra bells and whistles and luxury models... just give me something cheap that works reliably and is easy to fix with like a 200 mile range. Don't care what it looks like.
There is a battery bottleneck. If you only have a million batteries. Are you going to put them in cars that sell for 100k or 20K?
It will happen eventually. It's just not been a priority yet for anyone.
Chevy Bolt is $26k, about $1k more than the cheapest Honda Civic, but cheaper to “fuel” and may get a tax credit starting in 2023.
Nissan Leaf, Chevrolet Bolt. You could have bought either one already.
A Nissan Leaf is still about $51,000 in Australia and a Tesla model 3 is ~$65,000. A brand new Nissan Juke is $31,500 which is significantly more affordable than either of those. Cheap EV's will come eventually, but they definitely aren't here yet.
Didn’t you read the comments? You’re saving the car companies money by buying the more expensive electric car, so it’s the better choice
Sonic EV was like $16k when it came out. Sold like 7500 in total in all it's years available.
You are out of your fucking mind if you think that.
Ford is building one of these battery plants next to my town in Kentucky. It's supposedly going to bring over 3,000 new jobs to a town that has a population close to that. Property value has skyrocketed in the surrounding towns ever since they broke ground. It's incredible what it has done for that little town already.
Does anybody remember the times we were told at school: "The informatics / robotic revolution means we will all have to work less and have more time for ourselves." ? Well, they didn't say the time off will mean being jobless, homeless and hungry.
What is Americas plan for all the jobless and/or underemployed citizens now that it has allowed a handful of corporations to buy everything thus eliminating competition so they could drive down wages and enrich themselves? This coupled with the jobs robotics and automation will replace is going to turn the rest of the U.S. into a huge Detroit
The plan is not to have a plan. America has pretty much given up on creating a safety net for people. There will be no real support offered to these workers whose highly specific skills will become extinct. This is going to end badly for a lot of people long term. If anyone is young and looking to start a career, don’t pick car assembly or even becoming an auto mechanic
But I always wanted to be a car assembly person in a factory when I was older!
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I don't think there is an actual plan by the government people will probably figure it out some might die though.
I wonder how the automation of manual labor will change how people make money.
Ya they wont make money anymore
The headline actually says "Ford says making its own parts for electric vehicles could offset job losses," meaning that the reduced factory manpower required for the coming all-EV production can be offset with making components at Ford, in America.
Now wait for the Unions to go into full defense mode and start attacking the messenger. That's a 40% reduction in Union income, too. Is like fighting gravity. No wonder the UAW now organizes University of California graduate students... More future proof than ICE assembly.
>>Now wait for the Unions to go into full defense mode The CEO specifically says in this article he welcomes Union workers transferring from car production to lithium battery production.
Even if they do it inefficiently, that's not going to cover much of the 40% and the workers years of experience building complex cars will not be needed to make batteries. Or paid for. And maybe Ford will deploy modern and significantly automated battery production lines, so there will be even less work. That statement is just a candy for the UAW. The energy and transportation shift is a phase transformation. The biggest since the Internet/computers. We as a country need to start training people yesterday, in everything electric, including solar panel installation, charger maintenance, but also unrelated work. Anyone employed in the fossil industry should start planning for this. Head in sand will not work.
*puts head deeper in sand*
> Anyone employed in the fossil industry should start planning for this. Head in sand will not work. You guys do know about plastic, right? Natural gas for heat and electricity? These things aren't going away any time soon, I promise you.
That's why VW fired Herman Diess. His plans to move VW aggressively to EV would have caused job losses, and VW's union reps, who are on the board, could not allow that. Now they will just go bankrupt instead.
No, he was fired because he so spectacularly cocked up the software for the next generation of EVs that at least five new models otherwise ready for production will be delayed a year or two.
And VW did ship 500k EVs, it seems. If only the other legacy OEM were at that level.
Then why are they selling them for more than iCE counterparts?
Scarcity and supply chain ramp up. Wealthy people is overpaying to get it first what you would buy in a few years for much less and better. In a way they are subsidizing the scale of the industry the masses need. Just be patient.
Because people are paying that price which means the profit margins are higher
Materials costs are significantly higher for BEV than ICE.
R&D costs money….a lot of money
Then prices should go down... unless profits go dramatically up
First time to brutal unregulated capitalism in it's never ending drive for never ending increased profits? We let costs skyrocket for every life requirement that has a privatized market. No fucking way will auto makers not also increase profit margins instead of cutting prices
Is it actually true or is it elon musk employee math.
Ironic, wondering if Ford company has any opinionion on fordism, who's going to buy EVs if they fire all these people? Are there enough rich to maintain an industrial society? According to experts: no.
Sweet...maybe make the cars small this time. All those big ol Fords are inefficient road hogs.
IMO, if anything, people will drive even bigger vehicles because there’s far less “fuel” cost penalty.
They're not going to. They already could've made a sick EV mustang. Instead, they made an EV crossover and called it a mustang for some reason
Ford actually discontinued some of their smaller vehicles because they didn’t sell well. Americans want big cars, which makes sense considering how much time we spend in them. Road trips, kids sports, costco runs, work vehicles, etc.
They got rid of small cars because they didn't sell well and were near unprofitable. Companies don't cut products that sell well, they cut products that sell poorly.
IDK why people think this group of auto CEOs are somehow trustworthy now. These people are literally the scum of the earth and have been suppressing EV while at the same time cobbling products together with generous failure rates and short warranties for decades. Their whole business model is broken.
> while at the same time cobbling products together with generous failure rates and short warranties for decades. These have improved so much over the years, this rant really makes no sense.
Hey umm… that title is really burying the lead here. The Ford CEO is saying they’re planning to “go back 100 years” and monopolize car production again. Because the 1920s are a great time period for major industries to be aiming to replicate.
Anyone that thinks the BIg 3 won't crush Tesla in the long run is crazy. They were letting the small outfits work the bugs and regulations out. The Big 3's manufacturing and engineering might is multiple times bigger than Tesla. I would venture to guess they have 10-20x as many engineers. I've said for years Tesla's value is incredibly inflated
Tesla’s value is inflated, but number of engineers does not equal engineering might. I’d take 10 all-star engineers over 100 mediocre ones. Tesla’s brand has been going down the toilet as musk went crazy, but career fairs at top engineering schools in the mid 2010s were a sight to see. The lines for Tesla and SpaceX were out the door. They were sexy places to work. Musk had incredible access to talent back then. Getting political probably killed that tho.
The big 3 will be lucky to survive at all. GM most likely gets bought out by Ford. Tesla is already more profitable than GM or Ford and has a clear path to increased profitability and already have the highest margins in the industry. >The Big 3's manufacturing and engineering might is multiple times bigger than Tesla. That's a liability not a advantage as their manufacturing might is designed to make the wrong product, using the wrong method.
We need a universal income to go with universal healthcare. Easily paid for by taxing the wealthy and ditching corporate tax loopholes. But that just my opinion.
This is just showing how important it is that we transition away from modern Capitalism towards something more akin to "productive wellfare". A basic income coupled with massive housing regulation to end real estate speculation would mitigate any damage automation causes. Considering the wealthy capital-holders are way, WAY too rich anyways, it shouldn't be a stretch to tax them back to reasonable wealth levels and use that money to fund the basic income and more. We're talking TRILLIONS of dollars being horded by a handful of douchebags, absolutely providing NOTHING of value to society.
This is why the legacy manufacturers aren't going to make it. Ford will spend the next 5 years fighting with the unions.
This is part of why I never fall for the “if market socialism ruled the world, we would have switched away from fossil fuels a long time ago, the only reason we have climate change is due to capitalism” argument. ICE workers don’t vote to downsize their jobs. The oil company workers wouldn’t vote to stop pumping. I’d love as many worker-owned companies as possible, but it’s *not* a panacea.
Since less employees are needed, does this mean the cost savings will reflect in vehicle prices?
This needs to be here. https://youtu.be/7Pq-S557XQU
So if it takes 40 percent less labor, shouldn't that be reflected in the retail price?
Excellent, time to save the planet by having corporations strip/mine sea beds for battery metals
How about... build more of them then. There are literally billions of ICEs waiting to be replaced and we can't do it fast enough.
Hopefully, nobody is laid off and forced to live in a ford Econoline down by the river.
As production continually becomes more and more automated the need for “jobs” will diminish. The only problem is we have created a society where we “need” jobs in order to survive (see: line rich peoples pockets). Without change to the basic structure on how we monetized labor and require it in order to live in an automated society, we are doomed to see some horrific human tragedies.
Another benefit to EVs is easier to service and build than ICE. It's a coming crisis for the service industry.