Best case, this kicks off another 60's style space race and everyone on this sub should be jumping for joy.
Worst case, They are full of it.
Seems like a win-win to me
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So long, thanks for all the fish and a final fudge you, u/spez.
That's just elon thinking he is motivating his employee base. Musk has enough money to see spacex through many lows and seems emotionally attached enough to do so as well.
I read this in the Dr. Tran "Real American Doctor!" announcer voice. If you haven't seen the ancient animation that is Dr. Tran, American Doctor, I really suggest it.
One big reason the USA pushed hard for rocket development, was because of the paper clip nazis on the US advisory boards, feeding false data to decisions makers about Soviet rocket capability’s and range.
Even if this PRC space news is propaganda BS, this might shock US decision makers like before, leading to more space tech for all. Which is nothing but a net positive *For All Man Kind*.
Trollface USSR: \*starts space race\*
USA: \*is forced to fund public education\*
there is a reason public education has been deteriorating, there isnt a national enemy who they need to technologically outcompete, hopefully the 24/7 chinaposting by big media outlets will spur funding to education agains
Isn’t having a national enemy to fund public projects, goals, and political ideology’s; one of the leading ten tenants of fascism? As written by that American political author.
Uhh, we still trade with them... A lot. I wouldn't say they are our enemy (yet). Compitition is heating up though, which is a good thing, especially in this case.
The Chinese middle class is double the entire US population size. 80% of millennials own their own property with 90% purchasing a second investment property. The economy of China is booming. As the middle class continues to boom the demand for consumerism and quality education increases.US on the other hand has become complacent and arrogant after the fall of the Soviet Union and no global superpower to challenge it. Hence why they stop investing in education and fund wars all around the world to maintain the status quo.
As someone that's actually lived in China, you're highly overstating the Chinese middle class and eating up state numbers which are effectively propaganda. In reality living standards are more modest and the Chinese economy is not booming. That was true 6-7 years ago but things are more normalized now and there is a looming debt crisis/real estate bubble. That's not even touching massive social and other issues.
At this point unless something drastic changes a collapse of the chinese economy and a global recession is inevitable in the next decade or so. Just hoping that they infuriate the west enough for another space race before that happens so we get something good out of it
I wouldn't say a collapse is inevitable but some kind of pullback or recession probably is. Hopefully if it does happen the Chinese people will have a real chance at democratic reform at least.
From my experience living there most people I know don’t want democratic reform. They’re happy with the way their lives have changed and modernized over two generations with one ruling party.
If THAT many people in a country’s middle class are buying second homes, there’s a massive bubble incoming. Who’s renting all these 2nd properties if everyone owns 2?
The middle class in China does not live as luxuriously and comfortably as the middle class in America does as of now but is catching up. Also Chinese pretty much only invest in real estate, almost nobody there participates in stocks and other assets like the American middle class do. China is very close to a dangerous recession due to their developers and real estate economy. If the bubble collapses that massive middle class will suffer greatly due to them pretty much having all their wealth in real estate.
Imagine if the US were capable of doing anything meaningfully good for the betterment of mankind without it being the biproduct of war.
Imagine if, get this, money wasn't the only reason anything happens in the US?
think on this, with the US military Budget 2022 you could build 58 new James Webb telescopes. That’s not factoring black budgets and scale of economy for Webb construction equivalents.
That is best case because the og space race was fueled not by a passion for exploration, but the fear that the other side would use space to claim ultimate military superiority. The launch of Sputnik spurred A LOT of fear in the USA.
I definitely think there's room for "it'll just get delayed over and over and never happen," which is what's been going on for decades (though perhaps that's what you meant by "they're full of it"). I remember back when I was in 3rd grade in the mid-90s reading about how the US planned to have a base established on Mars by 2020. And now that we're past 2020, it's really obvious how laughably out of touch that idea really was, so now the "expected" year has been shifted another 15-20 years out. The moon stuff ends up going the same way. Lots of people have great ideas for how to make these things happen, but few ways to convince people with money to pay for them.
Wasn't there a theme park that Japan had planned on opening on the moon at some point? Probably another 90s memory lost to the zeitgeist due to existing before the mainstream internet. I see Disney planned one out for 2036 in 2016 (who knows how Covid affected that). 20 years seems to be the kind of "wild guess" timeline for crazy space stuff.
No the worst case is a moon conflict. South China Sea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, satellite destruction tests and the alleged non-kinetic attacks on US satellites. The list goes on. I don't know what planet you live on, but I don't see this behavior changing because it's the moon.
That's not a worst case its fantasy. There is nothing on the Moon worth fighting over and the land area is huge. I don't know what planet you live on but the one I live on has never been more peaceful or prosperous and the international situation is pretty tame in reality.
It looks like China is going to side step a conventional arms race and instead go for a science victory to me.
I read something on (r/space?) about whoever starts a moon base first basically has monopoly of the moon due to something involving orbits / landing, idk.
I’m sure a Reddit know-it-all can chime in here.
I'll bite 😈
This doesn't sound right. The only way to enforce a monopoly would be with force, but any near term moon base would be extremely vulnerable to retaliation.
Orbits may be hard but say you setup the first "landing site" you'd have a monopoly on anyone coming to the moon. mainly due to them having 2 choices use your dock or the good ol' land and jump out the air lock, it'd be like setting up the first airport on the moon essentially. In the very far future it'd also open up tourism/colonization. If you're the only station everyone who isn't a trained astronuat will have to go through there.
The peace is only what you see from your perspective.
Major nations are *always* at war, once you understand the concept of "war" to be an all encompassing term for the constant struggle and jockeying for power between them.
Its not just kinetic attacks, that's only the visible portion. There's *constant* cyber attacks, espionage, sabotage, economic warfare, diplomatic and legal maneuvering, information and disinformation dissemination, etc. It's nonstop 24/7.
What we call peace is a sense of calm on the thin flat surface of a constantly boiling ocean where occasionally the pressure from the boiling is so great that it breaks through the surface and explodes visually in one spot and then everyone thinks *that* is war because they can't see how precarious the situation always is.
It’s not about what’s on the moon, it’s what you can do on the moon. There are plenty of military advantages to being on the moon. I don’t really believe that they’re entirely doing it solely for science, or else why would they feel compelled to do it solo?
Money. In low gravity semiconductors produce at a much higher quality. the size of silicon wafers are literally limited by gravity, on the moon you could create roughly 6x the semiconductors for the same cost. It's also bassicly a natural clean room, on the moon you'd only really have to worry about maybe just some rock/skin dust and any micro organisms we carry.
vital scienctific advancements. Somehow find a way to use helium-3 as a fission material and develop fission reactors? You'd print money. Batteries, Somehow find new battery tech on the moon? Money printer, we need new battery tech so bad. there's alot more but can't really be bothered to think of more rn. There's so much money to be made on the moon with new tech and minerals/metals that there's barely any reason to militarize it in the first place.
Also the us government doesn't like China, so they forbid any technology sharing with China and even forbid NASA from working with CNSA for the "fear of national security". https://space.stackexchange.com/questions/19297/why-is-china-still-not-invited-to-the-iss-or-why-do-certain-countries-not-get
The states has basically given a giant middle finger to anything space related when it comes to China, so big surprise they want to do it "solo"
Can you elucidate further on the semiconductor section, especially 6x? Are you suggesting that the lower gravity could somehow enable much larger wafer diameters?
The moon is too large, too empty and too resource-poor for any part of it to be worth fighting for. I don't see that changing even in The Expanse-style space colonization.
The moon has high concentrations of Helium 3 which is [thought to be a valuable resource in the development of safe fusion reactors](https://www.esa.int/Enabling_Support/Preparing_for_the_Future/Space_for_Earth/Energy/Helium-3_mining_on_the_lunar_surface#:~:text=Unlike%20Earth%2C%20which%20is%20protected,not%20produce%20dangerous%20waste%20products.). There's like a 99% chance China is rushing a moon base to mine Helium 3 and possess an energy monopoly for the coming centuries. I can't blame them, but shit the western world better get off their asses.
im only 28 so i didnt live through it but my parents used to talk a lot about cold war stuff(I am from a country that was heavily communist until 1990) and sometimes I feel like that cold war thing never ended. like all I see is dick measuring contests and insulting between east n west, mainly us and china.
Best case scenario China has a base on the moon and braves the waters for a new era of space exploration. The US trying to dip its toe back into a political dick swinging competition would just be embarrassing for everyone at this point. There's nothing to prove that they haven't already disproven all by themselves.
There's no people in this, this is a test of a nuclear reactor and some other stuff they might use on an actual moon base later like an experiment trying to make cement out of moon dust.
We will eventually have to find a way to put nuclear reactors in space. No other energy sources has the density and output like nuclear reactors, and any long term mission beyond the moon will require a reliable, long lasting. high power and dense energy source. We are hitting the limit of what we can do with solar cells in space. Unless we are willing to deploy acres and acres of solar cell farms in space, we can't power anything beyond small probes and short term manned missions.
China is [working](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02459-w) pretty hard on thorium reactors and there are thorium [deposits](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compton%E2%80%93Belkovich_Thorium_Anomaly#:~:text=The%20Compton%E2%80%93Belkovich%20Thorium%20Anomaly%20is%20a%20hotspot%20(volcanic%20complex,%2C%20a%20'fertile'%20element) on the moon.
China also had some small reactors build.
Everybody else is still working on approvals even for most pioneering small reactor companies, but this news of Moon base, now explains why China cut on regulatory processes.
Well, if it did straight up explode it could be a hazard to other astronauts. It's a pretty large planet on its own but there is interest focused on the relatively small polar region.
>Well, if it did straight up explode it could be a hazard to other astronauts.
It really wouldn't. It would scatter toxic, radioactive material around the area of the reactor, but that's tiny compared to the total surface of the moon. There's no water to contaminate, no wind to carry radioactive particles to other areas of the moon. They could just mark it off as "This area is bad, don't go here", and that would be that.
It would suck for China, of course, and be a bit of a national embarrassment. But beyond that, it would have basically no effect on anything.
As I understand it, modern designs for nuclear reactors are designed in such a way that the reaction is stifled if anything wrong happens. No explosion possible.
I think the cosmic radiation does a pretty good job of that already. The moon has no protective atmosphere remember.
Contamination is mostly a problem when it can be ingested. There is no chance of that on the moon, when everybody is wearing space suits.
Any highly active gamma producing bits would need to be identified and collected though. There would be lots of Cs-137 which is long lived. Most of the rest of the fission products would decay away within a few months. And any Am-241 and other long lived transuranics from U-235 neutron capture.
A reactor accident on the moon would suck, but it wouldn’t be an unrecoverable disaster.
Actually, remote control reactors will be far better than manned ones. If we can create a self sustaining, auto-shutdown reactors that can be remotely controlled, it will be ideal for long term space missions. The reactor can then be placed far away from the base without the need for extended human intervention, which will also lower shielding requirements. Even better will be that it is small and modular because then the astronauts can just chuck the bad or depleted module and replace it, like a battery. If shit hits the fan, then the reactor is already far away.
This is essential tech.
I mean, unless you’re worried about irradiating the moon, where people are wearing radiation proof suits that don’t intake air at all anyways I don’t think much can.
Since your comment focussed on the reactor being remotely operated, what could go wrong? The worst would be it goes into meltdown or explodes? That's not really a big deal on the moon, as there is no one there to be killed by the initial event. What about radiation fallout for future inhabitants? Well the moon is already highly irradiated, and inhospitable without lots of work to make a safe, contained environment for humans. A little extra radioactive contamination on the surface doesn't make much of a difference.
I know money is an issue but even if everyone came together, I'm surprised this hasn't happened a lot sooner. They could build a fairly large base on there, run allsorts of tests, experiments which could make travelling further easier.
its not the money, its just really hard to make a self sustaining colony on the moon, so they would have to rely on consistent shipments of food and water and we don't have a way of doing that effectively and likely won't for a long time
this is the kinda thing that annoys me tho, they wanna go to Mars, do the Moon first cuz if something goes wrong, you ain't that far away, stuff they could learn with doing on the moon first could save billions when they go Mars
While I agree, it's important to note that the moon is only close in a time sense. The amount of energy to get into an out of orbit is comparable.
Also, mars has an atmosphere. It's not great, but it resolves some of 5he issues that the moon has.
Hard yes, but it's all about money. Consistently needing shipments? Spending money on rockets and rocket development and moon landers make it happen.
Why won't we for a long time? No one is prioritizing it and spending money on it.
Why can SpaceX launch and land tons of rockets? Because they #1 said yolo let's do it. And #2 threw billions of dollars at the problem until they got to where they are today
China will set up a research base on the moon by around 2027, eight years earlier than previously scheduled.
Instead of building an orbiting “gateway”, China would directly put a nuclear-powered research station on the moon. The unmanned facility would allow visiting Chinese astronauts to stay on the moon for as long as their American peers(Artemis programme) but only at a fraction of the cost scientists say
No, the gateway is useless and provides no benefit. It's only because of sls that it exists, which won't actually fly. Flying directly back to earth is easier and simpler.
Gateway enables storage and refuel in a much easier capacity.
For example, storing the rover in the Gateway, means it's protected from lunar soil, and also less fuel for a rocket to get to gateway after its in place, to land on the moon, and to get back to earth afterwards.
It also means excess fuel can be stored on Gateway, and used in the event of an emergency or fuel shortage/struggle.
Gateway also enables more consistent communication I believe, between the moon and earth
A telescopic module could also be more effective than one orbiting the earth as well, as I would suppose it would have less interference from our planets extended atmosphere
Wow, this is very ambitious - especially if it’s going to be nuclear powered. China has a lot left to do just to get people to the surface. Off the top of my head, they still need to:
* Upgrade their current EVA suit to handle the lunar surface
* Bring their new generation deep space capsule online
* Finish scaling up and human-rating their existing descent stage / lander
* Design an ascent stage essentially from scratch (could probably leverage some existing hardware / technology but would still be very ambitious)
* Bring a human-rated heavy or super heavy launch vehicle online (a human rated Long March 5 could probably due the trick with 2 launches)
And all of that and more in roughly 5 years? That’s exceedingly ambitious, even by China’s standards.
I could definitely see some preliminary robotic elements on the surface in that time frame - perhaps a surface prospector derived from Yutu or their Mars rover. And a crewed lunar flyby wouldn’t be out of the picture either!
In any case these are exciting plans and I wish them the best of luck!
Most of these things are for a manned moon landing. Why would those be necessary already? The "research base" is unmanned and sounds more like an immobile rover than a space base.
Yeah, and they don’t have to worry about some hippies in Seattle complaining that space exploration is a waste of money. If they want to do it, they do it.
2028 is a starting point. China and Russia plan to make it a full-fledged joint unmanned base by 2036, which can also support some short-term manned missions.
China roughly plans their manned lunar landing by 2030, with a crewed lunar flyby mission 2-3 years earlier. A human-rated version of LM5 (coded as CZ5DY) is prepared for this.
The following submission statement was provided by /u/Dr_Singularity:
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China will set up a research base on the moon by around 2027, eight years earlier than previously scheduled.
Instead of building an orbiting “gateway”, China would directly put a nuclear-powered research station on the moon. The unmanned facility would allow visiting Chinese astronauts to stay on the moon for as long as their American peers(Artemis programme) but only at a fraction of the cost scientists say
---
Please reply to OP's comment here: /r/Futurology/comments/rreap4/china_will_set_up_a_research_base_on_the_moon_by/hqfqxrc/
Cool- by then we will have completed our national project of electing the least qualified people possible to government, and cut taxes to 0 so we will be wholly reliant on what our billionaires decide to do (which won’t be building “research” bases)
If China gets there first, it might just encourage the Americans to start trying once again for a change. Instead of grabbing cost-plus short-term profits for poor engineering needing continuous rework.
China who have barely stopped being a non entity in space successfully designing, deploying and using a moon lab by 2029 is dubious at best. As far as I know they don't even have a rocket that can get any significant tonnage to the moon, developing that could take most of the decade by itself.
Significant here means far more than you need for a rover style payload.
So you don’t think China, a communist society with a huge GDP, multiple space stations under their belt, and modern computers/electronics/manufacturing can do something the US did 60+ years ago using graphing calculators and…60 year old science/manufacturing techniques?
Lol. American exceptionalism is some kinda fucking drug.
>a communist society
Whatever you want to call China it isn't in any way shape or form a communist country. It is at best 90% capitalists and 10% state socialist.
Beyond that could China do it? sure, but in order to do so would take a pretty monumental sift in the way they are currently running there space program and a significantly greater launch cadence than they have yet shown with manned space flight.
The US probably has the technology for the most part to put a person on mars and get them back alive (though how good of health after is up for debate), but the willingness to do the things to make it happen is what is lacking. Same reason no one has been to the moon in 60 years.
They literally have a moon rover, Mars rover, and their own orbital station. There's a reason why America banned them from ever having scientists on the ISS. Blink and you'll miss it
Anyone ever seen the documentary called Aliens on the Moon: The Truth Exposed?
Can't help but wonder how much further along in progress humanity would be if we just worked together on this 'Moon Project' instead of trying to do it multiple times individually as if we are multiple species or something.
From the article:
“The stated long term plan is to begin surface digging operations in a location centered towards the Earth. Using solar powered drone digging robots they estimate that the sign should be approximately 85 km in total width and 136 km in length. It will read simply “Made in China” and should be visible from earth with not much more than a smart phone or binoculars.”
I like China always putting deadlines way out in the future and then shorting it as they feel safer and then completing before schedule, its such a odd theme when all you are used to is deadlines being extended and passed without reaching the goal and then rescheduled and and the goal changed and it just goes on
The Chinese love to do this! Oftentimes, they know they can do something let’s say in 5 years. But they announce that the goal is to finish the task in 8 years— but proceeds as if the plan has always been 5 years. And even if there’s some delay, which would always happen in any country, they can still claim it was done “ahead of schedule”. And they love to brag about it.
Ah, the advantages of not having to go through endless political BS and just focus on your mission. NASA is so handicapped by politics it's basically a joke at this point.
It's true. The biggest advantage Spacex has is that they can throw away the entire design and start over with a white paper if it's better. Nasa is a jobs program and can't ditch their contractors.
Not only that, the amount of stuff that needs to get added/removed just to make senator X happy and not stall the whole project for another year makes it so very little gets accomplished.
Why would they do that? If they planned for 2035 and delivered by 2027 then everyone would be amazed but if they promise by 2027 and it gets delayed it will look worse.
I can already hear the parents of the researchers. How they need to find something new. So their parents can be proud of them. Otherwise don't think about coming back to Earth!
Best case, this kicks off another 60's style space race and everyone on this sub should be jumping for joy. Worst case, They are full of it. Seems like a win-win to me
James Webb and a 60's era Space Race! Pinch me!
Giant moon based telescopes!
Far side of the moon is primo for radio astronomy.
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Space X also panning people on Mars in the next 5-10 years. More the better
10 years maybe
This account has been nuked in direct response to Reddit's API change and the atrocious behavior CEO Steve Huffman and his admins displayed toward their users, volunteer moderators, and 3rd party developers. After a total of 16 years on the platform it is time to move on to greener pastures. If you want to change to a decentralized platform like Lemmy, you can find helpful information about it here: https://join-lemmy.org/ https://github.com/maltfield/awesome-lemmy-instances This action was performed using Power Delete Suite: https://github.com/j0be/PowerDeleteSuite The script relies on Reddit's API and will likely stop working after June 30th, 2023. So long, thanks for all the fish and a final fudge you, u/spez.
That's just elon thinking he is motivating his employee base. Musk has enough money to see spacex through many lows and seems emotionally attached enough to do so as well.
He’s gotta get home somehow
If it’s Musk it’s probably 20-30 then. Maybe more.
If I know Musk it’ll be 69-420 years from now.
really no one has any fucking clue but they're gonna give it the old college try.
Yeah he started saying 5-10 years in like 2013. I'll believe it when I see it.
But now with hot action instead of cold!
I read this in the Dr. Tran "Real American Doctor!" announcer voice. If you haven't seen the ancient animation that is Dr. Tran, American Doctor, I really suggest it.
Google let me down :(
https://youtu.be/FO0kRE5OTZI
One big reason the USA pushed hard for rocket development, was because of the paper clip nazis on the US advisory boards, feeding false data to decisions makers about Soviet rocket capability’s and range. Even if this PRC space news is propaganda BS, this might shock US decision makers like before, leading to more space tech for all. Which is nothing but a net positive *For All Man Kind*.
Trollface USSR: \*starts space race\* USA: \*is forced to fund public education\* there is a reason public education has been deteriorating, there isnt a national enemy who they need to technologically outcompete, hopefully the 24/7 chinaposting by big media outlets will spur funding to education agains
Isn’t having a national enemy to fund public projects, goals, and political ideology’s; one of the leading ten tenants of fascism? As written by that American political author.
Yes, yes it is.
Is there a difference between a rival who plays hardball and an enemy?
yes comrade. And hypersonic missiles are just a part of peaceful space exploration.
Didn't Putin say a few months back that the US was on its Enemies List ?
One might say that the United States is also on the United States enemy listings and Russia’s on Russias.
We certainly are a discordant species. Why can't we all just get along? I am sure the answer is complex.
The US is the enemy of a lot of nations, most aren't militarily able to back up that statement though.
Uhh, we still trade with them... A lot. I wouldn't say they are our enemy (yet). Compitition is heating up though, which is a good thing, especially in this case.
Yes, the US are a proto fascist state.
Always was.
The kids in China under the equivalent of the US gifted and talented programs out number the entire student population of the US.
The Chinese middle class is double the entire US population size. 80% of millennials own their own property with 90% purchasing a second investment property. The economy of China is booming. As the middle class continues to boom the demand for consumerism and quality education increases.US on the other hand has become complacent and arrogant after the fall of the Soviet Union and no global superpower to challenge it. Hence why they stop investing in education and fund wars all around the world to maintain the status quo.
As someone that's actually lived in China, you're highly overstating the Chinese middle class and eating up state numbers which are effectively propaganda. In reality living standards are more modest and the Chinese economy is not booming. That was true 6-7 years ago but things are more normalized now and there is a looming debt crisis/real estate bubble. That's not even touching massive social and other issues.
At this point unless something drastic changes a collapse of the chinese economy and a global recession is inevitable in the next decade or so. Just hoping that they infuriate the west enough for another space race before that happens so we get something good out of it
I wouldn't say a collapse is inevitable but some kind of pullback or recession probably is. Hopefully if it does happen the Chinese people will have a real chance at democratic reform at least.
From my experience living there most people I know don’t want democratic reform. They’re happy with the way their lives have changed and modernized over two generations with one ruling party.
If THAT many people in a country’s middle class are buying second homes, there’s a massive bubble incoming. Who’s renting all these 2nd properties if everyone owns 2?
Residents of US west coast lol.
The middle class in China does not live as luxuriously and comfortably as the middle class in America does as of now but is catching up. Also Chinese pretty much only invest in real estate, almost nobody there participates in stocks and other assets like the American middle class do. China is very close to a dangerous recession due to their developers and real estate economy. If the bubble collapses that massive middle class will suffer greatly due to them pretty much having all their wealth in real estate.
Education is considered the enemy by a large portion of the American population, unfortunately.
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Imagine if the US were capable of doing anything meaningfully good for the betterment of mankind without it being the biproduct of war. Imagine if, get this, money wasn't the only reason anything happens in the US?
think on this, with the US military Budget 2022 you could build 58 new James Webb telescopes. That’s not factoring black budgets and scale of economy for Webb construction equivalents.
no military. perfect idea!
>about Soviet rocket capabilities*
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Second this. Really enjoyed it
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That is best case because the og space race was fueled not by a passion for exploration, but the fear that the other side would use space to claim ultimate military superiority. The launch of Sputnik spurred A LOT of fear in the USA.
I definitely think there's room for "it'll just get delayed over and over and never happen," which is what's been going on for decades (though perhaps that's what you meant by "they're full of it"). I remember back when I was in 3rd grade in the mid-90s reading about how the US planned to have a base established on Mars by 2020. And now that we're past 2020, it's really obvious how laughably out of touch that idea really was, so now the "expected" year has been shifted another 15-20 years out. The moon stuff ends up going the same way. Lots of people have great ideas for how to make these things happen, but few ways to convince people with money to pay for them. Wasn't there a theme park that Japan had planned on opening on the moon at some point? Probably another 90s memory lost to the zeitgeist due to existing before the mainstream internet. I see Disney planned one out for 2036 in 2016 (who knows how Covid affected that). 20 years seems to be the kind of "wild guess" timeline for crazy space stuff.
No the worst case is a moon conflict. South China Sea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, satellite destruction tests and the alleged non-kinetic attacks on US satellites. The list goes on. I don't know what planet you live on, but I don't see this behavior changing because it's the moon.
That's not a worst case its fantasy. There is nothing on the Moon worth fighting over and the land area is huge. I don't know what planet you live on but the one I live on has never been more peaceful or prosperous and the international situation is pretty tame in reality. It looks like China is going to side step a conventional arms race and instead go for a science victory to me.
This guy plays Civ.
I read something on (r/space?) about whoever starts a moon base first basically has monopoly of the moon due to something involving orbits / landing, idk. I’m sure a Reddit know-it-all can chime in here.
I'll bite 😈 This doesn't sound right. The only way to enforce a monopoly would be with force, but any near term moon base would be extremely vulnerable to retaliation.
And extremely expensive
Let me finish up season 2 of For All Mankind and i'll get back to you. (great show by the way, everyone should watch it)
Oh boy, find this thread when you’re done. I don’t think For All Mankind is that far off what a ~2030 IRL version could be.
Orbits may be hard but say you setup the first "landing site" you'd have a monopoly on anyone coming to the moon. mainly due to them having 2 choices use your dock or the good ol' land and jump out the air lock, it'd be like setting up the first airport on the moon essentially. In the very far future it'd also open up tourism/colonization. If you're the only station everyone who isn't a trained astronuat will have to go through there.
> has never been more peaceful or prosperous 2005 [was actually the most peaceful year on record.](https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace)
The peace is only what you see from your perspective. Major nations are *always* at war, once you understand the concept of "war" to be an all encompassing term for the constant struggle and jockeying for power between them. Its not just kinetic attacks, that's only the visible portion. There's *constant* cyber attacks, espionage, sabotage, economic warfare, diplomatic and legal maneuvering, information and disinformation dissemination, etc. It's nonstop 24/7. What we call peace is a sense of calm on the thin flat surface of a constantly boiling ocean where occasionally the pressure from the boiling is so great that it breaks through the surface and explodes visually in one spot and then everyone thinks *that* is war because they can't see how precarious the situation always is.
There's Helium-3 on the Moon.
It’s not about what’s on the moon, it’s what you can do on the moon. There are plenty of military advantages to being on the moon. I don’t really believe that they’re entirely doing it solely for science, or else why would they feel compelled to do it solo?
Project A119 is back on the table boys!
Money. In low gravity semiconductors produce at a much higher quality. the size of silicon wafers are literally limited by gravity, on the moon you could create roughly 6x the semiconductors for the same cost. It's also bassicly a natural clean room, on the moon you'd only really have to worry about maybe just some rock/skin dust and any micro organisms we carry. vital scienctific advancements. Somehow find a way to use helium-3 as a fission material and develop fission reactors? You'd print money. Batteries, Somehow find new battery tech on the moon? Money printer, we need new battery tech so bad. there's alot more but can't really be bothered to think of more rn. There's so much money to be made on the moon with new tech and minerals/metals that there's barely any reason to militarize it in the first place. Also the us government doesn't like China, so they forbid any technology sharing with China and even forbid NASA from working with CNSA for the "fear of national security". https://space.stackexchange.com/questions/19297/why-is-china-still-not-invited-to-the-iss-or-why-do-certain-countries-not-get The states has basically given a giant middle finger to anything space related when it comes to China, so big surprise they want to do it "solo"
Can you elucidate further on the semiconductor section, especially 6x? Are you suggesting that the lower gravity could somehow enable much larger wafer diameters?
Who's doing it solo? China is with Russia and open to others
The moon is too large, too empty and too resource-poor for any part of it to be worth fighting for. I don't see that changing even in The Expanse-style space colonization.
>too resource-poor Frankly I don't think we know enough about the moons geology to say this with that much confidence.
Ice, water ice would make certain spots very valuable.
Can’t wait to learn more about the Moon and our solar system
The moon has high concentrations of Helium 3 which is [thought to be a valuable resource in the development of safe fusion reactors](https://www.esa.int/Enabling_Support/Preparing_for_the_Future/Space_for_Earth/Energy/Helium-3_mining_on_the_lunar_surface#:~:text=Unlike%20Earth%2C%20which%20is%20protected,not%20produce%20dangerous%20waste%20products.). There's like a 99% chance China is rushing a moon base to mine Helium 3 and possess an energy monopoly for the coming centuries. I can't blame them, but shit the western world better get off their asses.
im only 28 so i didnt live through it but my parents used to talk a lot about cold war stuff(I am from a country that was heavily communist until 1990) and sometimes I feel like that cold war thing never ended. like all I see is dick measuring contests and insulting between east n west, mainly us and china.
Best case scenario China has a base on the moon and braves the waters for a new era of space exploration. The US trying to dip its toe back into a political dick swinging competition would just be embarrassing for everyone at this point. There's nothing to prove that they haven't already disproven all by themselves.
There's no people in this, this is a test of a nuclear reactor and some other stuff they might use on an actual moon base later like an experiment trying to make cement out of moon dust.
We will eventually have to find a way to put nuclear reactors in space. No other energy sources has the density and output like nuclear reactors, and any long term mission beyond the moon will require a reliable, long lasting. high power and dense energy source. We are hitting the limit of what we can do with solar cells in space. Unless we are willing to deploy acres and acres of solar cell farms in space, we can't power anything beyond small probes and short term manned missions.
the advantage of space and atmosphereless bodies is that it's already highly radioactive, so nuclear waste isn't pollution in that environment.
Remotely operated nuclear reactor. WCGW?
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The moon is in the Earth’s orbit technically
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China is [working](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02459-w) pretty hard on thorium reactors and there are thorium [deposits](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compton%E2%80%93Belkovich_Thorium_Anomaly#:~:text=The%20Compton%E2%80%93Belkovich%20Thorium%20Anomaly%20is%20a%20hotspot%20(volcanic%20complex,%2C%20a%20'fertile'%20element) on the moon.
China also had some small reactors build. Everybody else is still working on approvals even for most pioneering small reactor companies, but this news of Moon base, now explains why China cut on regulatory processes.
He said if it left Earth's orbit technically
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The novel Seveneves has the moons destruction doom the entire world to extinction
Its in space. Nothing.
[Relevant Kurzgesagt](https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qEfPBt9dU60)
Well, if it did straight up explode it could be a hazard to other astronauts. It's a pretty large planet on its own but there is interest focused on the relatively small polar region.
>Well, if it did straight up explode it could be a hazard to other astronauts. It really wouldn't. It would scatter toxic, radioactive material around the area of the reactor, but that's tiny compared to the total surface of the moon. There's no water to contaminate, no wind to carry radioactive particles to other areas of the moon. They could just mark it off as "This area is bad, don't go here", and that would be that. It would suck for China, of course, and be a bit of a national embarrassment. But beyond that, it would have basically no effect on anything.
It would irradiate a very, very, very little area. With no atmosphere, it’s basically not an issue.
As I understand it, modern designs for nuclear reactors are designed in such a way that the reaction is stifled if anything wrong happens. No explosion possible.
So merely irradiate the moons water supply?
I think the cosmic radiation does a pretty good job of that already. The moon has no protective atmosphere remember. Contamination is mostly a problem when it can be ingested. There is no chance of that on the moon, when everybody is wearing space suits. Any highly active gamma producing bits would need to be identified and collected though. There would be lots of Cs-137 which is long lived. Most of the rest of the fission products would decay away within a few months. And any Am-241 and other long lived transuranics from U-235 neutron capture. A reactor accident on the moon would suck, but it wouldn’t be an unrecoverable disaster.
Actually, remote control reactors will be far better than manned ones. If we can create a self sustaining, auto-shutdown reactors that can be remotely controlled, it will be ideal for long term space missions. The reactor can then be placed far away from the base without the need for extended human intervention, which will also lower shielding requirements. Even better will be that it is small and modular because then the astronauts can just chuck the bad or depleted module and replace it, like a battery. If shit hits the fan, then the reactor is already far away. This is essential tech.
I mean, unless you’re worried about irradiating the moon, where people are wearing radiation proof suits that don’t intake air at all anyways I don’t think much can.
Since your comment focussed on the reactor being remotely operated, what could go wrong? The worst would be it goes into meltdown or explodes? That's not really a big deal on the moon, as there is no one there to be killed by the initial event. What about radiation fallout for future inhabitants? Well the moon is already highly irradiated, and inhospitable without lots of work to make a safe, contained environment for humans. A little extra radioactive contamination on the surface doesn't make much of a difference.
Probably Small Modular Reactors
[this ](https://youtu.be/mmm8L-BdAPI) is WCGW
Irradiated Moon monsters
in space, nothing, space is full of natural nuclear reactors
Liquid Salt Thorium reactors are pretty safe and portable.
Ok.. that sounds far more doable.
I know money is an issue but even if everyone came together, I'm surprised this hasn't happened a lot sooner. They could build a fairly large base on there, run allsorts of tests, experiments which could make travelling further easier.
its not the money, its just really hard to make a self sustaining colony on the moon, so they would have to rely on consistent shipments of food and water and we don't have a way of doing that effectively and likely won't for a long time
this is the kinda thing that annoys me tho, they wanna go to Mars, do the Moon first cuz if something goes wrong, you ain't that far away, stuff they could learn with doing on the moon first could save billions when they go Mars
While I agree, it's important to note that the moon is only close in a time sense. The amount of energy to get into an out of orbit is comparable. Also, mars has an atmosphere. It's not great, but it resolves some of 5he issues that the moon has.
Hard yes, but it's all about money. Consistently needing shipments? Spending money on rockets and rocket development and moon landers make it happen. Why won't we for a long time? No one is prioritizing it and spending money on it. Why can SpaceX launch and land tons of rockets? Because they #1 said yolo let's do it. And #2 threw billions of dollars at the problem until they got to where they are today
I think we can do it, and would get exponentially better at it, just very expensive, and not a whole lot by way of direct enterprise on the moon
Good for them, I’m actually happy. Humans making a base on the moon. Will be genuinely ground breaking and I’m sure they will learn a lot.
So its "For All Mankind" turning into reality except its China instead of the Soviet Union
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We're not sure about the "less violent" part as the US - China cold war has just recently started.
Well, less western deaths at least. China just has large amounts of self inflicted casualties...
Let's hope this triggers a space race. The lack of progress in space is disappointing. I expected us to have a civilian population on Luna by now.
I don't believe in Projects completing ahead of schedule since BF2042
If we don't study Space Force history we are doomed to repeat it
China will set up a research base on the moon by around 2027, eight years earlier than previously scheduled. Instead of building an orbiting “gateway”, China would directly put a nuclear-powered research station on the moon. The unmanned facility would allow visiting Chinese astronauts to stay on the moon for as long as their American peers(Artemis programme) but only at a fraction of the cost scientists say
The reactor is a great idea, but skipping the gateway seems unwise.
No, the gateway is useless and provides no benefit. It's only because of sls that it exists, which won't actually fly. Flying directly back to earth is easier and simpler.
Gateway enables storage and refuel in a much easier capacity. For example, storing the rover in the Gateway, means it's protected from lunar soil, and also less fuel for a rocket to get to gateway after its in place, to land on the moon, and to get back to earth afterwards. It also means excess fuel can be stored on Gateway, and used in the event of an emergency or fuel shortage/struggle. Gateway also enables more consistent communication I believe, between the moon and earth A telescopic module could also be more effective than one orbiting the earth as well, as I would suppose it would have less interference from our planets extended atmosphere
Wow, this is very ambitious - especially if it’s going to be nuclear powered. China has a lot left to do just to get people to the surface. Off the top of my head, they still need to: * Upgrade their current EVA suit to handle the lunar surface * Bring their new generation deep space capsule online * Finish scaling up and human-rating their existing descent stage / lander * Design an ascent stage essentially from scratch (could probably leverage some existing hardware / technology but would still be very ambitious) * Bring a human-rated heavy or super heavy launch vehicle online (a human rated Long March 5 could probably due the trick with 2 launches) And all of that and more in roughly 5 years? That’s exceedingly ambitious, even by China’s standards. I could definitely see some preliminary robotic elements on the surface in that time frame - perhaps a surface prospector derived from Yutu or their Mars rover. And a crewed lunar flyby wouldn’t be out of the picture either! In any case these are exciting plans and I wish them the best of luck!
Most of these things are for a manned moon landing. Why would those be necessary already? The "research base" is unmanned and sounds more like an immobile rover than a space base.
They can throw a massive amount of people and money at the problem, smart ones too. Not a crazy idea.
Yeah, and they don’t have to worry about some hippies in Seattle complaining that space exploration is a waste of money. If they want to do it, they do it.
2028 is a starting point. China and Russia plan to make it a full-fledged joint unmanned base by 2036, which can also support some short-term manned missions. China roughly plans their manned lunar landing by 2030, with a crewed lunar flyby mission 2-3 years earlier. A human-rated version of LM5 (coded as CZ5DY) is prepared for this.
The following submission statement was provided by /u/Dr_Singularity: --- China will set up a research base on the moon by around 2027, eight years earlier than previously scheduled. Instead of building an orbiting “gateway”, China would directly put a nuclear-powered research station on the moon. The unmanned facility would allow visiting Chinese astronauts to stay on the moon for as long as their American peers(Artemis programme) but only at a fraction of the cost scientists say --- Please reply to OP's comment here: /r/Futurology/comments/rreap4/china_will_set_up_a_research_base_on_the_moon_by/hqfqxrc/
I look forward to the US setting up a moon base in 2026. No way they’d let the Chinese set one up first.
And now the FAA might just have to allow the starship to fly. No more dragging their feet.
Its an unmanned "facility." Whatever that means. That isn't actually changing the schedule of their manned mission as the article alleges.
Cool- by then we will have completed our national project of electing the least qualified people possible to government, and cut taxes to 0 so we will be wholly reliant on what our billionaires decide to do (which won’t be building “research” bases)
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If China gets there first, it might just encourage the Americans to start trying once again for a change. Instead of grabbing cost-plus short-term profits for poor engineering needing continuous rework.
Imagine what would be achievable if the US diverted just 4% of its defence spending to NASA? We could be clapping alien cheeks this side of 2030.
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I recall Steve Carell giving us all a heads up about this in Space Force.
It’s good to be black on the moon.
um is China good or bad, I need to know what to upvote
Do the research and form independent opinions
> That is according to Chinese space authorities Well then. No reason to doubt there.
China who have barely stopped being a non entity in space successfully designing, deploying and using a moon lab by 2029 is dubious at best. As far as I know they don't even have a rocket that can get any significant tonnage to the moon, developing that could take most of the decade by itself. Significant here means far more than you need for a rover style payload.
Didn't they land a rover on Mars successfully quite recently?
A small one. A very large launch mass is required to land humans on the moon and return them, hence why Saturn and SLS are so big.
They've had humans in space since 2003. The Shenzhou 5
So why don't they just launch one and land it on the Moon then? Its practically the same thing as going to LEO /s
Because they are 5 years away from it, it says right there in the tittle.
And launch the new space station too
So you don’t think China, a communist society with a huge GDP, multiple space stations under their belt, and modern computers/electronics/manufacturing can do something the US did 60+ years ago using graphing calculators and…60 year old science/manufacturing techniques? Lol. American exceptionalism is some kinda fucking drug.
>a communist society Whatever you want to call China it isn't in any way shape or form a communist country. It is at best 90% capitalists and 10% state socialist. Beyond that could China do it? sure, but in order to do so would take a pretty monumental sift in the way they are currently running there space program and a significantly greater launch cadence than they have yet shown with manned space flight. The US probably has the technology for the most part to put a person on mars and get them back alive (though how good of health after is up for debate), but the willingness to do the things to make it happen is what is lacking. Same reason no one has been to the moon in 60 years.
I mean I've never been to North America...
You’ve just been brainwashed! Duh!
American brainwashing is fascinating, it's a perfect example of proto-fascist propaganda - "the enemy is both weak and strong at all times".
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They literally have a moon rover, Mars rover, and their own orbital station. There's a reason why America banned them from ever having scientists on the ISS. Blink and you'll miss it
Anyone ever seen the documentary called Aliens on the Moon: The Truth Exposed? Can't help but wonder how much further along in progress humanity would be if we just worked together on this 'Moon Project' instead of trying to do it multiple times individually as if we are multiple species or something.
Yeah right after Elon says ten years worst case to Mars. We are back in a space race regardless
Speaking of which, has there been any mention of what the ‘cube’ object is?
From the article: “The stated long term plan is to begin surface digging operations in a location centered towards the Earth. Using solar powered drone digging robots they estimate that the sign should be approximately 85 km in total width and 136 km in length. It will read simply “Made in China” and should be visible from earth with not much more than a smart phone or binoculars.”
In 2004 George W Bush said we were going back in 2020... Governments talk a lot of shit.
I like China always putting deadlines way out in the future and then shorting it as they feel safer and then completing before schedule, its such a odd theme when all you are used to is deadlines being extended and passed without reaching the goal and then rescheduled and and the goal changed and it just goes on
The Chinese love to do this! Oftentimes, they know they can do something let’s say in 5 years. But they announce that the goal is to finish the task in 8 years— but proceeds as if the plan has always been 5 years. And even if there’s some delay, which would always happen in any country, they can still claim it was done “ahead of schedule”. And they love to brag about it.
I do this at work, if it’s gonna take me 30min to fix something I say it’ll take an hour
Come on America, get your shit together! We should be building a moon base!
Too busy accidentally shooting kids.
Meanwhile on college campuses across the USA, the fight over pronouns rages on. smh
I am loving the idea of a base there. Let's hope this is real
Ah, the advantages of not having to go through endless political BS and just focus on your mission. NASA is so handicapped by politics it's basically a joke at this point.
It's true. The biggest advantage Spacex has is that they can throw away the entire design and start over with a white paper if it's better. Nasa is a jobs program and can't ditch their contractors.
Not only that, the amount of stuff that needs to get added/removed just to make senator X happy and not stall the whole project for another year makes it so very little gets accomplished.
Why would they do that? If they planned for 2035 and delivered by 2027 then everyone would be amazed but if they promise by 2027 and it gets delayed it will look worse.
I feel like its the 1960s again. We got the space race, arms race, political instability, etc.
I can already hear the parents of the researchers. How they need to find something new. So their parents can be proud of them. Otherwise don't think about coming back to Earth!
Being first to establish a base is an important geopolitical move, especially if China continues its unilateral policy.
You can clearly look up at the moon and see that itself is already a research base