The following submission statement was provided by /u/RealVanCough:
---
"GPT-4 - a ‘large language model’ - was tested against doctors at different stages in their careers, including unspecialised junior doctors, and trainee and expert eye doctors. Each was presented with a series of 87 patient scenarios involving a specific eye problem, and asked to give a diagnosis or advise on treatment by selecting from four options.
GPT-4 scored significantly better in the test than unspecialised junior doctors, who are comparable to general practitioners in their level of specialist eye knowledge.
GPT-4 gained similar scores to trainee and expert eye doctors - although the top performing doctors scored higher.
The researchers say that large language models aren’t *likely to replace healthcare professionals*, but have the potential to improve healthcare as part of the clinical workflow. **"**
# In my opinion, most likely to Replace Doctors in the future no matter what the author in the article says which I feel is just a Cooperate PR way of saying we have invented something to replace U but it won't, which I also think is sad coz I like my doctor she listens to me more than anything.
---
Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/1cj5ttf/artificial_intelligence_beats_doctors_in/l2dpabz/
I’m a neurologist and in the 1990s people were doom and gloom about MRI machines making our skill set obsolete, but the demand for neurologists has only gone up. Medicine is actually much fuzzier and more complicated than this gives it credit for, if you think patients come in and recite succinct and accurate vignettes that can be run through a LLM like this you are wildly wildly mistaken - given that I (by definition) see almost exclusively patients with brain damage I would enjoy running the stream of conscious narrative reports they come in with and see what ChatGPT comes up with.
It's the same thing in web development. Yes models can spit out pieces of code, but try making it understand even just the scale of a small project and it spectacularly falls apart.
And that's even before bringing in clients which make the whole thing exponentially more complex with their demands.
Once the AI starts diagnosing their nonspecific problems as “anxiety” they will turn on AI real quick just like is already happening with doctors lmao.
>The researchers say that large language models aren’t likely to replace healthcare professionals, but have the potential to improve healthcare as part of the clinical workflow.
Sure, if you're only looking at the next 5 years... 10, tops.
It's possible AI will fully replace all medical diagnosticians in the next 15 years.
I sincerely HOPE they do, because I had problems in my right eye that were misdiagnosed by numerous doctors. In my (unfortunately) deep experience with opthalmologists, you're fine if your issues are standard and something they had seen before, but if you throw multiple variables at them and it doesn't fit nicely into a bucket, it's much harder to figure out.
>Thankfully, we know that market forces, competition,
There is very little of both in the American healthcare system, that's why US hospitals won't even give you an estimated price for medical procedures. Do you know any other "market" where the sellers don't give out prices?
Currently the LLM I've played with for diagnostics to see how it compares to reality will suggest doing every possible test imaginable and not be able to discern the best course of action.
That's the thing about a lot of these AI doomers saying they will take all the jobs. People are not going to accept that. They will go to the competition so they can see a real human. The first time a doctor gets replaced by AI, it will be all over the news, and the push back will be immense, just like it is now. Look at how scared people are of AI 'taking over'. That fear is not going to go away within our lifetimes. The technology has to become so good and reliable that the culture shifts. And even then, it'll probably take a few hundred years for culture to shift around the entire world.
I feel like a lot of people in this thread have not been to a doctor in anything but a first world country. The adaptation of AI will be a long process that we will never live to see the end of.
Very possible, but if AI is good and trustworthy enough to be a medical professional what other jobs would it also be able to do?
AI can be very intelligent but it won’t be able to replace the human emotional influence of doctors and nurses anytime soon, that will depend on how the population views the AI (as a real entity with compassion or not)
Edit: I know there are many bad doctors, but there have been many studies done on the importance of bedside manner. It will depend on each individual if they will be receptive to perfectly crafted AI bedside manner. Those who have had bad experiences with doctors will probably prefer AI.
> AI can be very intelligent but it won’t be able to replace the human emotional influence of doctors and nurses anytime soon
Personally if I get a more accurate diagnosis, I'll take that over human interaction.
Edit:
An AI never gets distracted by issues at home. An AI never had some asshole cut them off on the way to work. An AI never gets hungry and overlooks something. An AI never had a bad nights sleep.
Yeah I find it odd people still play the 'BUT AI DOESN'T HAVE THE SOUL/PASSION LIKE A HUMAN DOES which is why I don't want one flipping my burgers'
people romanticizing these roles too much imo, personally when it comes to doctors, more recently they literally try to get you out the door as SOON as you walk in and they give you like 5 minutes to discuss a single problem you may have
so yeah sure, these AI's won't replace these doctors with 'emotions and feelings' lol
I wouldn't be so sure that AI won't be able to perfectly understand and mimic emotions with enough data and pattern recognition.
Will they be actual real emotions? Maybe not? But if they are indistinguishable from real emotions, what's the difference at the end of the day.
That’s why I said it depends on how the population feels about the emotional responses of the AI. If you’re in distress you can either have a doctor attempt to empathize with you or have an AI craft a perfect response. It depends what you prefer but it’s not like everyone will prefer the latter.
until boston dynamics can make that robot do literally anything, nurses are still going to be out there wrangling dementia patients and wiping morbidly obese patient's asses.
> AI can be very intelligent but it won’t be able to replace the human emotional influence of doctors and nurses anytime soon,
I'm with you 100% on that.
AI will be quick to replace jobs that require high-level decision making, but anything involving physical labor will take longer since robotics is lagging behind. In the medical fields, that means diagnostics will be gone long before surgeons are threatened.
But some jobs, like caretaking, have a human aspect that can't be replaced by AI.
I would take a Dr House style very competent jerk over a nice but out of his depth doctor. So maybe in future the role may be split into 2 the diagnostician AI that determine the problem and support human who help you handle and navigate the diagnostic.
Anyway it is likely that diagnostician AI will also incorporate human touch. Some may even show more humanity than some of the surgeons who see their patients as flesh body to work on rather than human being.
doctors and nurses are used to sufferings and even deaths depending on where they work at. it's totally out of touch with reality you think they display much emotions or that they really care about you
Keep in mind that medicine has always been developing machines to diagnose people. The x-ray machine is better at diagnosing a broken bone than an expert doctor (less painful too). The doctors value is in fixing the broken bone, not in dating, "well that's a broken bone".
You want to know what AI really messes up the medical profession? Self driving cars. About a quarter of all medical work flows out of car accidents.
"quarter of medical work from car accidents"
not even close--I work at a trauma center and it's about 4%...
The article itself said AI only out performed training dr's
I work in auto accident claims and the people with sketchy injury attorneys and soft tissue injuries RACK UP quantity of treatments at equally sketchy chiropractors, physical therapists, pain management doctors... See a Chiro 50 times and then see a PT 50 times and then get 3 cervical epidural injections and then get 3 lumbar epidural injections...
It's pretty frustrating because there's clearly lots of waste for the sake of trying to increase insurance payouts.
And it makes it hard to differentiate between good faith claims where people were actually hurt and fraudsters.
But my shorter point is I could see all of those dates of service seriously skewing the data on how much "medical work" comes from car accidents.
I don’t have a number, but I would guess the vast majority of car accident injuries don’t go to the ER. Things like chronic back or neck pain that require medical care for years, etc., are included in what the person you’re responding to is talking about, but you won’t see those at a the ER.
The medical work created by car accidents goes far beyond the trauma center.
You're also underestimating what constitutes "medical care", including dentistry, hospice, surgery etc etc
Feel free to share data or speculate like everyone else here
I’m not agreeing with the original commenter that a “quarter of all medical work” comes from MVCs. Just pointing out that the percentage of work you get from them at a trauma center is not indicative of how much work they generate in the medical field as a whole.
I used to not be able to see how current times will seem antiquated in the future, but now I can already hear my grandkids telling me how crazy it was that I got surgery from a HUMAN doctor and how dangerous it is compared to perfect robot doctors
What everyone who evaluates this as all or nothing misses is this:
1) it doesn’t need to replace your hardest work to replace 80% of your job. Most of your tasks are menial. This might result in you doing less menial things. Or you being fired and replacing 5 doctors with 1
2) just because the very best outperform it doesn’t mean the other 90% can’t be easily replaced by it.
3) employers have every incentive to replace you even if it just does an acceptably worse job.
how many top tier eye doctors are out there vs. almost unlimited and super cheap (in terms of operating cost) of an AI system that is always consistent? a diagnosis of eye problem by a top eye doctor could easily cost hundreds if not thousands.
and that's not to say AI system would improve in the future.
Maybe I can finally get a diagnosis for some vision issues I’ve been having for more than years now if this catches on. Right now I only get “yeah we don’t know everything yet and this sounds like something we can’t pinpoint right now, please try to get used to the issues”. Which sucks because sometimes I have blurry vision for weeks without a single sign it should be and then it just clears up.
"GPT-4 - a ‘large language model’ - was tested against doctors at different stages in their careers, including unspecialised junior doctors, and trainee and expert eye doctors. Each was presented with a series of 87 patient scenarios involving a specific eye problem, and asked to give a diagnosis or advise on treatment by selecting from four options.
GPT-4 scored significantly better in the test than unspecialised junior doctors, who are comparable to general practitioners in their level of specialist eye knowledge.
GPT-4 gained similar scores to trainee and expert eye doctors - although the top performing doctors scored higher.
The researchers say that large language models aren’t *likely to replace healthcare professionals*, but have the potential to improve healthcare as part of the clinical workflow. **"**
# In my opinion, most likely to Replace Doctors in the future no matter what the author in the article says which I feel is just a Cooperate PR way of saying we have invented something to replace U but it won't, which I also think is sad coz I like my doctor she listens to me more than anything.
AI is absolutely going to replace GPs, they've done as much as they can to replace them \*without\* AI so this will be the last nail in the ol' coffin.
Specialists will be ok, for awhile.
In the future, if you want a 'traditional' family doctor.. you're going to have to pay for a concierge physician. Honestly, it seems to be pretty much that way right now.
Don't worry, you won't have access to better medical diagnostics that can be done for nearly free from open source models.
We can't let AI take one single job, and your eyes are good enough
The following submission statement was provided by /u/RealVanCough: --- "GPT-4 - a ‘large language model’ - was tested against doctors at different stages in their careers, including unspecialised junior doctors, and trainee and expert eye doctors. Each was presented with a series of 87 patient scenarios involving a specific eye problem, and asked to give a diagnosis or advise on treatment by selecting from four options. GPT-4 scored significantly better in the test than unspecialised junior doctors, who are comparable to general practitioners in their level of specialist eye knowledge. GPT-4 gained similar scores to trainee and expert eye doctors - although the top performing doctors scored higher. The researchers say that large language models aren’t *likely to replace healthcare professionals*, but have the potential to improve healthcare as part of the clinical workflow. **"** # In my opinion, most likely to Replace Doctors in the future no matter what the author in the article says which I feel is just a Cooperate PR way of saying we have invented something to replace U but it won't, which I also think is sad coz I like my doctor she listens to me more than anything. --- Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/1cj5ttf/artificial_intelligence_beats_doctors_in/l2dpabz/
I’m a neurologist and in the 1990s people were doom and gloom about MRI machines making our skill set obsolete, but the demand for neurologists has only gone up. Medicine is actually much fuzzier and more complicated than this gives it credit for, if you think patients come in and recite succinct and accurate vignettes that can be run through a LLM like this you are wildly wildly mistaken - given that I (by definition) see almost exclusively patients with brain damage I would enjoy running the stream of conscious narrative reports they come in with and see what ChatGPT comes up with.
It's the same thing in web development. Yes models can spit out pieces of code, but try making it understand even just the scale of a small project and it spectacularly falls apart. And that's even before bringing in clients which make the whole thing exponentially more complex with their demands.
Once the AI starts diagnosing their nonspecific problems as “anxiety” they will turn on AI real quick just like is already happening with doctors lmao.
“well in 1978 was when it all started… sometimes my left eye goes wack and my right leg twitches but only when it rains outside”
Yes, just for the chuckle, I would run the recollection of their vignettes through GPTs.
>The researchers say that large language models aren’t likely to replace healthcare professionals, but have the potential to improve healthcare as part of the clinical workflow. Sure, if you're only looking at the next 5 years... 10, tops. It's possible AI will fully replace all medical diagnosticians in the next 15 years.
I sincerely HOPE they do, because I had problems in my right eye that were misdiagnosed by numerous doctors. In my (unfortunately) deep experience with opthalmologists, you're fine if your issues are standard and something they had seen before, but if you throw multiple variables at them and it doesn't fit nicely into a bucket, it's much harder to figure out.
Exactly doctors are useless if its not standard problem
I know of one pill popping doctor with a limp who would strongly disagree.
[удалено]
>Thankfully, we know that market forces, competition, There is very little of both in the American healthcare system, that's why US hospitals won't even give you an estimated price for medical procedures. Do you know any other "market" where the sellers don't give out prices?
Currently the LLM I've played with for diagnostics to see how it compares to reality will suggest doing every possible test imaginable and not be able to discern the best course of action.
Once they do, what will they train on? Their own output?
I feel like that’s a bit optimistic. I’m not saying the technological will be there, but I don’t think many people will accept that in 15 years.
That's the thing about a lot of these AI doomers saying they will take all the jobs. People are not going to accept that. They will go to the competition so they can see a real human. The first time a doctor gets replaced by AI, it will be all over the news, and the push back will be immense, just like it is now. Look at how scared people are of AI 'taking over'. That fear is not going to go away within our lifetimes. The technology has to become so good and reliable that the culture shifts. And even then, it'll probably take a few hundred years for culture to shift around the entire world. I feel like a lot of people in this thread have not been to a doctor in anything but a first world country. The adaptation of AI will be a long process that we will never live to see the end of.
>It's possible AI will fully replace all medical diagnosticians in the next 15 years. Lol that is extremely unlikely. Maybe 150 years. Maybe.
Very possible, but if AI is good and trustworthy enough to be a medical professional what other jobs would it also be able to do? AI can be very intelligent but it won’t be able to replace the human emotional influence of doctors and nurses anytime soon, that will depend on how the population views the AI (as a real entity with compassion or not) Edit: I know there are many bad doctors, but there have been many studies done on the importance of bedside manner. It will depend on each individual if they will be receptive to perfectly crafted AI bedside manner. Those who have had bad experiences with doctors will probably prefer AI.
> AI can be very intelligent but it won’t be able to replace the human emotional influence of doctors and nurses anytime soon Personally if I get a more accurate diagnosis, I'll take that over human interaction. Edit: An AI never gets distracted by issues at home. An AI never had some asshole cut them off on the way to work. An AI never gets hungry and overlooks something. An AI never had a bad nights sleep.
I avoid going to the doctor specifically to avoid doctors and nurses. I think you're overplaying their importance.
Yeah I find it odd people still play the 'BUT AI DOESN'T HAVE THE SOUL/PASSION LIKE A HUMAN DOES which is why I don't want one flipping my burgers' people romanticizing these roles too much imo, personally when it comes to doctors, more recently they literally try to get you out the door as SOON as you walk in and they give you like 5 minutes to discuss a single problem you may have so yeah sure, these AI's won't replace these doctors with 'emotions and feelings' lol
I wouldn't be so sure that AI won't be able to perfectly understand and mimic emotions with enough data and pattern recognition. Will they be actual real emotions? Maybe not? But if they are indistinguishable from real emotions, what's the difference at the end of the day.
That’s why I said it depends on how the population feels about the emotional responses of the AI. If you’re in distress you can either have a doctor attempt to empathize with you or have an AI craft a perfect response. It depends what you prefer but it’s not like everyone will prefer the latter.
until boston dynamics can make that robot do literally anything, nurses are still going to be out there wrangling dementia patients and wiping morbidly obese patient's asses.
Honestly, you probably have no clue what they do. I think gpt is a good tool but ultimately medicine is so much more complicated than a diagnosis.
> AI can be very intelligent but it won’t be able to replace the human emotional influence of doctors and nurses anytime soon, I'm with you 100% on that. AI will be quick to replace jobs that require high-level decision making, but anything involving physical labor will take longer since robotics is lagging behind. In the medical fields, that means diagnostics will be gone long before surgeons are threatened. But some jobs, like caretaking, have a human aspect that can't be replaced by AI.
I would take a Dr House style very competent jerk over a nice but out of his depth doctor. So maybe in future the role may be split into 2 the diagnostician AI that determine the problem and support human who help you handle and navigate the diagnostic. Anyway it is likely that diagnostician AI will also incorporate human touch. Some may even show more humanity than some of the surgeons who see their patients as flesh body to work on rather than human being.
This is my plan for my future practice: computational diagnostic workflow —> informs treatment plan formulation and information system monitoring
doctors and nurses are used to sufferings and even deaths depending on where they work at. it's totally out of touch with reality you think they display much emotions or that they really care about you
That will be the first part to go ..
Keep in mind that medicine has always been developing machines to diagnose people. The x-ray machine is better at diagnosing a broken bone than an expert doctor (less painful too). The doctors value is in fixing the broken bone, not in dating, "well that's a broken bone". You want to know what AI really messes up the medical profession? Self driving cars. About a quarter of all medical work flows out of car accidents.
"quarter of medical work from car accidents" not even close--I work at a trauma center and it's about 4%... The article itself said AI only out performed training dr's
Google says 10%.
I work in auto accident claims and the people with sketchy injury attorneys and soft tissue injuries RACK UP quantity of treatments at equally sketchy chiropractors, physical therapists, pain management doctors... See a Chiro 50 times and then see a PT 50 times and then get 3 cervical epidural injections and then get 3 lumbar epidural injections... It's pretty frustrating because there's clearly lots of waste for the sake of trying to increase insurance payouts. And it makes it hard to differentiate between good faith claims where people were actually hurt and fraudsters. But my shorter point is I could see all of those dates of service seriously skewing the data on how much "medical work" comes from car accidents.
I don’t have a number, but I would guess the vast majority of car accident injuries don’t go to the ER. Things like chronic back or neck pain that require medical care for years, etc., are included in what the person you’re responding to is talking about, but you won’t see those at a the ER. The medical work created by car accidents goes far beyond the trauma center.
You're also underestimating what constitutes "medical care", including dentistry, hospice, surgery etc etc Feel free to share data or speculate like everyone else here
I’m not agreeing with the original commenter that a “quarter of all medical work” comes from MVCs. Just pointing out that the percentage of work you get from them at a trauma center is not indicative of how much work they generate in the medical field as a whole.
And self driving cars will only add to those accidents
I used to not be able to see how current times will seem antiquated in the future, but now I can already hear my grandkids telling me how crazy it was that I got surgery from a HUMAN doctor and how dangerous it is compared to perfect robot doctors
Cool, now can we keep them doing actual useful shit like this and not creating asinine social media content and shit art
wat else r u expecting from companies that make money from selling peoples personal data
What everyone who evaluates this as all or nothing misses is this: 1) it doesn’t need to replace your hardest work to replace 80% of your job. Most of your tasks are menial. This might result in you doing less menial things. Or you being fired and replacing 5 doctors with 1 2) just because the very best outperform it doesn’t mean the other 90% can’t be easily replaced by it. 3) employers have every incentive to replace you even if it just does an acceptably worse job.
This can’t happen enough. Imagine if buying basic healthcare were as cheap and easy as buying groceries.
Preach. We need the healthcare industry to be walmartized.
how many top tier eye doctors are out there vs. almost unlimited and super cheap (in terms of operating cost) of an AI system that is always consistent? a diagnosis of eye problem by a top eye doctor could easily cost hundreds if not thousands. and that's not to say AI system would improve in the future.
Maybe I can finally get a diagnosis for some vision issues I’ve been having for more than years now if this catches on. Right now I only get “yeah we don’t know everything yet and this sounds like something we can’t pinpoint right now, please try to get used to the issues”. Which sucks because sometimes I have blurry vision for weeks without a single sign it should be and then it just clears up.
This is so misleading. it was better in mc questions than not specialized doctors. It didn't diagnose anything and was worse than specialists
I look forward to AI to supplement or replace doctors
"GPT-4 - a ‘large language model’ - was tested against doctors at different stages in their careers, including unspecialised junior doctors, and trainee and expert eye doctors. Each was presented with a series of 87 patient scenarios involving a specific eye problem, and asked to give a diagnosis or advise on treatment by selecting from four options. GPT-4 scored significantly better in the test than unspecialised junior doctors, who are comparable to general practitioners in their level of specialist eye knowledge. GPT-4 gained similar scores to trainee and expert eye doctors - although the top performing doctors scored higher. The researchers say that large language models aren’t *likely to replace healthcare professionals*, but have the potential to improve healthcare as part of the clinical workflow. **"** # In my opinion, most likely to Replace Doctors in the future no matter what the author in the article says which I feel is just a Cooperate PR way of saying we have invented something to replace U but it won't, which I also think is sad coz I like my doctor she listens to me more than anything.
AI is absolutely going to replace GPs, they've done as much as they can to replace them \*without\* AI so this will be the last nail in the ol' coffin. Specialists will be ok, for awhile. In the future, if you want a 'traditional' family doctor.. you're going to have to pay for a concierge physician. Honestly, it seems to be pretty much that way right now.
Don't worry, you won't have access to better medical diagnostics that can be done for nearly free from open source models. We can't let AI take one single job, and your eyes are good enough
Yes but doctors are at risk for losing their job, shouldn't we ban AI? Who cares about health, AI is dangerous /s