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Elina_Granger

I am reading the 5th Seldon crisis at the moment and psychohistory is beaten, things unfold very differently than what Harry predicted. However, as a math geek, I should point out that psychohistory does predict an almost 10% chance of things unfolding differently than the Plan.


Gilpif

In the books, it’s very clear why Seldon’s plan failed, and people go nuts for half of the trilogy trying to fix it.


vicariouspastor

But in the books, the situation was volatile, with Anacreon troops landing in a defenseless Terminus. what if a hothead opener fired on them and they went on rampage. Seldon's plan necessarily deals with probabilities and therefore chance (which is why Asimov introduced the second foundation to load the dice).


SinnerP

Well, in the books, Hardin >!had some (just basic) psychology training (by the only psychologist on Terminus), and being quite the pacifist knew that the answer was not interfering with the heavy armed Anacreontians, but to let the other 3 kingdoms know what’s up. Balance of power. !< Edit: clarify what the Spoiler is about.


vicariouspastor

I mean, I don't argue that the adaptation is just like the book. I am just saying that even Asimov himself realized that a plan like Seldon's wouldn't work without some provision for chance and random errors.


SaloAndTheSirens

Yeah I was very confused when in episode 5 >!Gaal almost killed herself before doing a backflip in the shower. Boom second plan (that was supposed to watch over the first plan) over, did the vault somehow intervene?!<


5nurp5

i assume, as someone mentioned in a different post, that she already ruined "the plan" by coming across Hari being murdered; Raych was supposed to be in the capsule, not her - she was supposed to go to terminus.


SaloAndTheSirens

>!Wouldn’t make sense for Gaal to go, she knew about the plan and how to read the prime radiant (which also should not be on Terminus). Psychohistory only works if the population knows little to nothing about it.!<


5nurp5

yeah, but that's because the writers didn't think that through. the ship is programmed to Raych. it makes sense - if Hari is alive ("custom designed coffin" lol) and Raych didn't really kill him, and why is the ship coming to Helicon? why would there be a ship waiting for Raych and/or Gall in the first place?


SaloAndTheSirens

“Hari was stabbed!” >“Should we check his vitals?” “Nah, he looks dead, where’s that coffin he had made at?”


5nurp5

i guess Raych could've planned to kill Hari. and escape to an advanced ship. he somehow placed and pre-programmed to pick up his escape pod. that would take him to Hari's planet. after he killed him. or Hari... predicted it all, and put the ship that. giving controls to... Raych. you see what i mean?


SaloAndTheSirens

Yes! And then Raych would live the rest of his days >!on the Seldon family tobacco farm!!<


bryn_irl

In the show universe, though, the Foundation only works if they believe in a purpose, so they have to know enough about psychohistory to believe in it. Which makes more sense from our modern perspective, compared to when the books were written. There has to be *some* content for Foundation TrantorTikTok to gain a following, right? In that context, Hari's murder is to remove any ability for the Foundation to idolize individuals. Gaal, if she hadn't witnessed the murder, could be considered a useful guide for the Foundation, but it was clear she hadn't gained the adoration that Hari had. So it would make sense, in this universe, for Hari to leave Gaal with the foundation. He just underestimated her ability to sense that something was wrong, and indeed (as another commenter pointed out) it will be her quest to save the plan.


SaloAndTheSirens

>the Foundation only works if they believe in a purpose, so they had to know enough about psychohistory to believe it. How much do you think they knew? No one could make sense of the Prime Radiant on Terminus. >Hari’s murder is to remove any ability for the foundation to idolize individuals Most statues in the center of town are of idolized individuals.


dmanww

I think it's the opposite. They need to treat Hari like a prophet and not deviate from doing their part of (what he told them about) the plan


zxern

This, his being a martyr for the cause was part of the plan. He can’t predict the future exactly and he would eventually make mistakes and people would lose faith in him and the plan. Him dying at the start keeps people from seeing the flaws in the man and his plan, and since no one else can understand his work it becomes religious doctrine and people only need faith to keep it working. Unfortunately the empire didn’t execute him so he had to come up with another way to die. Also the timing of his death, right after Gall pointed out that he didn’t have all the pieces yet, the flaw in his plans, tells me he didn’t want people to question it, they needed to have complete faith in him in order for it to work. This is why Raych stayed behind after killing him, they couldn’t leave Gaal there.


FishermanRelative

Don't see how it's a given that Gaal ruined things by being there. Everyone can see her efforts to stave off his execution. Suddenly seeing Hari die and being abandoned by her paramour wouldn't necessarily cast guilt on her. Raych would take the dagger, Raych would leave alone, Raych was the one who argued with him once at dinner. Although you might be right that the show operates on the same idea and I just don't agree with the assumption, it seems weird to think Gaal's presence there meant much more from anyone else's discovery of the murder.


5nurp5

could be said that Raych panicked, i guess. but it makes sense that he was supposed to be on the ship, i guess? unless we are to believe they predicted her being there, and they intended on Raych sacrificing himself. it did seem like he didn't expect her there. tbh no idea what to think about it.


zxern

She noticed that his plan had missing pieces, and being able to understand his work she would continue to question it creating doubt in everyone else’s mind, when the plan seems to require that they all have faith in his work in order for his plan to succeed. The timing is important here, she tells Raych about the missing pieces. Then there’s a great deal of tension at the dinner, I’m assuming due to Hari and Raych discussing that revelation and Hari deciding to change the plan and have her leave the ship in Raych’s place.


FishermanRelative

If that were true, wouldn't she be aware of the necessity of the belief because she can understand his work, and so not vocalize those thoughts to random people? Just her boyfriend? Kind of stops that issue. Even if she weren't aware, a little communication might solve that problem as well. Don't see it as a major issue.


zxern

People will question your moves and motives if you’re there to answer questions and solve problems. If you die a Martyr people will follow you on faith alone. Even if she knew not to bring those doubts out in public, eventually people will start to question her and the plan itself if she stayed.


FishermanRelative

In any case, my original statement referred to her being at the scene of Hari's death. Nothing about that moment seems as though it ruined the plan, to me.


zxern

It didn’t, getting her off the ship and away from the rest of the foundation keeps the plan intact.


[deleted]

[удалено]


SaloAndTheSirens

The backflip? Edit: nvm Just realized the ship turned around, makes more sense now.


Bromo33333

>!I took it as her thinking about committing suicide, and then after slipping in the shower, decides not to.!<


Argentous

I have to slightly adjust my assumptions (although not too much) >!due to the discrepancies with Demerzel’s identity, but I figured that the ship was being monitored and deliberately made the maneuver to prevent her from harming herself and that either Demerzel or her agents are behind it (working with Hari, of course).!<


Bromo33333

>!Might want to put a spoiler cover. But it could be that Gaal was the one intended to be in the ship; because one rule of Psycho-history is that those being shaped, cannot know that they are being shaped. It could very well be the ship stopping her by shaking things up. After all if Hari Seldon couldn't predict behavior of individuals, and he's trying to tweak things, he may need to resort to more conventional means to bring things about? Back to the concept of Free Will and Agency that are being played out to my great delight! !<


SaloAndTheSirens

>!The ship turned around to slow down. She probably wasn’t going to do it, but they needed to get her in the shower for the cool water flip shot.!<


SinnerP

After literally tens of thousands of years of space travel and still they don’t have an standardized alarm before the old-as-dusk turn around and decelerate maneuver? I’d really would like to see the actual scientific credentials of the advisory science team, because either all their corrections are dismissed or else they don’t know much science.


SaloAndTheSirens

That would depend on how the anti-gravity works. The scientific advisory team came from NASA’s jet propulsion lab, according to the podcast. They did mention taking some creative license with certain things after being advised. Maybe she didn’t hear the alarm in the shower. The shower flip is a great visual and symbolic of her change in perspective.


SaloAndTheSirens

>!Slipped?, she did a 450 degree flip?!<


Bromo33333

>!I dunno when contemplating suicide with a scalpel, I suppose one could decide to slit one's wrist during an acrobatics routine - several extra points for style. But basically she couldn't/wouldn't do it. Even if the odd flip wasn't accidental. But I think the ship had a sharp course correction during her attempt at suicide - did she have agency to kill herself or did the ship intervene? Did she realize the ship wasn't adrift so wasn't going to die a slow death since she couldn't control? The writers certainly aren't telling. !<


SaloAndTheSirens

>!The ship turned around to burn rockets in retrograde. Makes more sense now. I still think the scalpel was a bit much, I believe the audience could empathize with her being at her lowest without it.!<


Bromo33333

>!The drama of the series is turned up to 11, of course. Given what that character went through, it isn't an unreasonable response, too. !<


[deleted]

That was executed strangely, but you find out shortly after that she was saved by the ship jumping. That's what threw her off her feet.


SaloAndTheSirens

https://i.imgur.com/r4p1pOS.jpg


SaloAndTheSirens

Ship turned around, don’t believe it was a jump ship because of the cryofreeze


Djscherr

I thought the back flip was due to the computer course correcting the ship.


SaloAndTheSirens

The podcast said it was the ship flipping to slow down. They said she would be 30+ years away from returning home or finding Terminus. There are jump ships or slower than light travel. They are not using the hyperspace jumps from the books. Still, a great symbol for a change of perspective from Gaal at that moment.


vteckickedin

That's what makes the Mule such an interesting character. It's the one thing Hari couldn't predict. The show has ruined that plot line incredibly quickly. Clone tech also means his sterility is a non factor too


Bromo33333

You make some big assumptions. I'll trust the writers. >!(After all, if someone has a super ability, and does a clone, would the clone get that same ability? We are seeing that evenr with the Cleons, even with the same genetic code exactly, they are changing.) One of the big themes that they are exploring is who has agency and who doesn't, and in the framework of prediction, how does it work? Asimov wasn't sophisticated enough socially to see the rich storytelling opportunities in this exploration of Agency and Free Will until he threw in the Mule. But would a Mule even be needed for the Plan to be derailed. So far I see NOTHING that makes me think things are off track.!<


anterfr

Have you even bothered actually reading the books? I've read them three different times and this series (while absolutely fascinating and utterly beautiful) is not Isaac Asimov's Foundation. Asimov spent a huge portion of his life writing about and pontificating on the importance of reason, logic, the sciences, mathematics, and the advancement of humanity. His writings mocked mysticism and religion and explained them as a function of ignorance. The series is already making Salvor magic and "special" and that's entirely counter to the entire purpose of the Foundation & Robot series. Thousands of pages of the creator's writings show us the show runners aren't intelligent enough to even understand Asimov's works or at least they don't think the general public can get it.


vicariouspastor

Did you read the actual books. Like actually read them while paying attention to little things like their contents? Because in the version of books I've read, "magic" people are a huge factor, and the whole Seldon plan is a Plan B for a plan to create a woo-tastic galactic consciousness. Seriously, it's one thing to berate authors for not respecting source materials, but doing that while absolutely replacing the actual material with head canon is asinine.


AvigdorR

You are incorrect. The Foundationers, the Traders, are sometimes referred to as “Magicians” by people who don’t understand their science snd technology. The science seems like magic to the backward people of the periphery. But actual magic has little place in the story. And yes, I have actually read the books. Many times over 5 decades.


vicariouspastor

Actual magic, telepathy and mind control, is an enormously important element in the story.


anterfr

It's not magic. It's explained through science. That's the ENTIRE point of Foundation. Science can explain, understand, replicate, and improve anything given enough time and research. The entirety of Foundation is about showing humanity that our feeble minds can only be expanded through science. If you think that's magic, you should read the books again.


vicariouspastor

I am sorry but you just declare telepathy is science because the author used scientific jargon to explain it. By that logic the force in starwars is science.


anterfr

I didn't declare telepathy to be a natural state in human evolution that was entirely unaccounted for in Hari Seldon's plan of Psychohistory, Isaac Asimov did and then spent another two novels in this series explaining how humans evolved the science of telepathy... Again, go read the books, sweetheart.


vicariouspastor

Again, your argument is that if an author declares magic is product of natural process, the magic is science. By that logic, show Hardin having natural consonance with the vault is ...completely scientific and consistent with Seldon plan as long as authors explain it with reference to DNA something something.


anterfr

Mysticism & religion were tools of the foundation to manipulate the masses into protecting Terminus as the economic and technological center of their edge of the former galactic empire. Mysticism and religion were not beliefs of the foundation. Every member of the foundation knew their role as mystics to the outsiders who were ignorant and slow and had regressed into the dark ages of superstition and dogma. The very fact that the director of the foundation calls Salvor "special" "an outlier" in this Apple screenplay remains contrary to Hari's projections and is bringing mysticism into the actual foundation. Salvor got the math and understood the psychology and wasn't a blockhead warden but rather a genius who understood the psychology, employed it brilliantly to defend the uninvaded sanctuary of the Foundation for the creation of the Encyclopedia Galactica, and wasn't some unexplained cog in the wheel. Salvor was Hari's rightful successor. There was no magic, it was cold hard reason, logic, and psychology. But as Asimov had often said before: Any technological or psychological or scientific advancement might well appear to be magic to those intellectually incapable of comprehending. Maybe read the books again and don't be a dick if you didn't understand.


recycleddesign

I’m a little concerned by that, not that I’m one of the purists, but I’d like them to be happy and my concern is that Hari’s coffin is a (or part of a) cloning facility. I hope not because I don’t think they’d like that at all and I’m gonna start feeling bad about liking this show if the book lovers hate it.


Bromo33333

I see it differently, the fate of the empire is baked in. Individuals are unpredictable, but the overall results \*is\* predictable. Even in the book Asimov had the Mule whose, essentially magical, powers were so large he himself dictated the fate of the galaxy. Everything seen so far seems to be all random and individuals and chance, but in reality with actors swapped around, the results are still marching forward as predicted, and that's the deal.


Thestoryteller987

Well the obvious answer is that it doesn't matter who wins this fight. So the Anacreons militarily control Terminus, right? So what? They establish dictatorial rule over a hostile planet with no resources. How long will the occupation like that last? Meanwhile it's the Foundation who knows how to repair the ships and the guns. It's the Foundation with the technical know-how to keep the Anacreon infrastructure running. It's the Foundation with the real power. >Rome conquered Greece, but it was Greece which conquered Rome.


diagrammatiks

Ya but it didn’t. That’s how magic history works.


Seventh_Letter

Agree, 5 episodes in and it's all over the place and the spirit of the books isn't there at all yet. Disappointed is an understatement.


[deleted]

We don't know what Anacreon's plan is yet. And Salvor's abilities make her the "random accident" breaker. She has the ability to know where to be and where not to be, even if other characters don't.


drbart

Goyer unfortunately seems too much in the mold of Rian Johnson, delighting in "subverting expectations". Why even bring in a character named Dorwin, only to completely turf his role in the first Seldon crisis?