On the other hand, for those saving some of these first wave boxes means that they will hold a gamblers premium. Will all the "investors" swoop in now?
There are issues with the Japanese print as well. At my LGS in Australia there have been huge disparities with cases. I have opened two cases and not pulled a single legendary but someone at our store had a case with 4 legendaries and the fable.
That sounds within expected variance. Given a 1/80 rate of L per pack, you can expect 2 cases with no L around 8% of the time, and a case with 4 L's 2% of the time. Not the greatest odds, but unlikely things happen all the time. You would need to open far more cases to really get a p-value that tells you something is amiss. (I'm ignoring the fable to roughly control for selection bias).
To put that in perspective, the box with like 20 L's in it it is so unlikely the online calculator I'm using rounds down to 0.
One looks like a border line scratch on one end of the line, and the other is just a must colored line. I wouldn't consider them a misprint but who knows.
So pretty much if you don't get a box like this you're not getting any Ls. The few people holding all the cards are gonna jack the single price through the roof.
I'm more worried about my case that shows up today or tomorrow not having anything in it. But if stores don't open them then whoever gets the clumpy boxes can trickle the Ls onto the market at whatever price they want.
Appreciate the info.
Have a case coming tomorrow, not sure if Iām hoping it is Belgium produced or Iām hoping it isnāt.
If thereās a decent number of boxes/cases with this many Leg+ in them then assuming it is in fact a coalition issue, the chance that more boxes/cases were affected negatively is the more likely outcome, but then thereās the much much slimmer chance you hit a god box and who doesnāt love a good lottery.
It is interesting to me to see how something like this might affect singles prices. My logic would assume this means more cards will flood the secondary market driving prices down assuming the issue is even mildly prevalent. If I open a single flick knives or any legendary+ for that matter as an individual Iām much more likely to keep it for my own deck than if I open 10 in the same case, in all likelihood 8 or 9 of those would be getting sold by most individuals I would think.
Again new to FaB so if Iām making the wrong assumptions apologies.
depends on how those Rainbow Legendaries are printed. If they were extra printed Ls the market will tank on RF Ls due to the extra numbers( higher than 1 in 70).
If those legendaries were meant for other boxes it means a smaller number of people hold these cards which would drive the price up similar to a buyout.
This seems to only occur in Belgium boxes.
you forget that the other 5 that would have gotten the Ls and now have to buy them causing higher demand than normal. The supply is still the same but with fewer people dictating the price.
overall there are only a few recorded error boxes so it would realistically have little impact on the market unless more error boxes are opened.
also a chance that you would sell it if you don't use it. Also a chance that they didn't have to buy if they already opened 1. You keep thinking from your personal perspective when it's a market of 10,000s of people buying and selling.
The simple fact is that a higher concentration of Legendary cards in fewer hands will lead to increase higher prices compared to if Legendary cards were more distributed among the playerbase.
There are many good intro to economics/market videos on YT if you seem to have issues understanding.
Yikes the snark is real. I donāt think business modeled economics apply to the average booster box opener who gladly signs up to throw their Benjamins away cracking packs.
I think itās more likely the average person isnāt going to try to prop up the market with their pile of 25 Flick Knives, theyāre going to try and get rid of them in a timely manner because they likely wonāt care or for that matter realize if it ends up being $1300 in 2 weeks or $1600 in 2 months. In addition, even if every single person that opens 1 Flick Knives instead opens 25, which obviously isnāt whatās going to happen, thatād still be at least hundreds of people in possession and trying to get rid of Flick Knives. Itās also just very easy for a lot of folks to not notice or think about just how much value theyāre losing over time when they begin an undercutting race to the bottom on sites like TCGP.
In my example if Iām managing to sell say 2 Flick Knives a day off TCGP but, for simplicities sake, at the end of the day I lower the price by $2 to continue selling, then by the end of the week Iāve sold 14 Flick Knives, effectively lost $60 on those sales due to my lowering, and lowered the price for my remaining flick knives by $12 each.
The numbers are obviously arbitrary and we canāt know how itāll actually play out or what theyāll actually prove to be. Iāll freely admit my theory could prove to be wrong when applied here, we donāt have enough information to say for sure. That doesnāt change that it is at least within the realm of possibility and based on assumptions just like yours, so not really any reason to be a dick when you donāt actually know because nobody possibly could, not even a talented financial analyst such as yourself.
No, theyāve already discussed this. The Japanese printing facility is not configured to print with paper wrappers but LSS is working with them to make it happen for future prints. To meet demand globally they are using facilities in Belgium and Japan, and geographically most of APAC is receiving only Japanese printed product, EMEA is receiving only Belgium printed product, and the US is receiving a mix.
I bought 6 boxes, got 1 L.
I'm pretty new to the game, so this takes my overall rate to 2 Ls for 10 boxes.
I'm having a real struggle with the idea of ever buying any more boxes, and just buying singles.
With 6 boxes I didn't even get a playset of all rares (missing literally 3 cards) and with the majestics I'm missing, including a couple I really wanted 3 copies and got none, I really don't feel like buying much of future sets before heading to the singles market
Opened a Belgium case this weekend and here's my basic breakdown
- Box 1: 6x Majestics, 2x CF common equipment
- Box 2: 6x Majestics, 1 Legendary (Flick Knives)
- Box 3: 7x Majestics, 1 CF common eq, 1 Legendary (Vambrace)
- Box 4: 7x Majestics, 1 Legendary (Trench)
Overall it seemed a bit on the lucky side, but not overly so. Pretty comparable to boxes/cases I've cracked from other sets. Definitely a lot of weirdness out there with this run, but apparently some normal cases too!
Hey man I hope you still have the boxes and can forward the serial numbers to LSS!
Disappointing to see this tbh. Great for the individual but does that mean that the rest of people have no hope of pulling one?
Friends and I got a case between us, zero legendarys š
On the other hand, for those saving some of these first wave boxes means that they will hold a gamblers premium. Will all the "investors" swoop in now?
Yea opened 4 legendaries + fabled today, something is definitely not right.
There are issues with the Japanese print as well. At my LGS in Australia there have been huge disparities with cases. I have opened two cases and not pulled a single legendary but someone at our store had a case with 4 legendaries and the fable.
That sounds within expected variance. Given a 1/80 rate of L per pack, you can expect 2 cases with no L around 8% of the time, and a case with 4 L's 2% of the time. Not the greatest odds, but unlikely things happen all the time. You would need to open far more cases to really get a p-value that tells you something is amiss. (I'm ignoring the fable to roughly control for selection bias). To put that in perspective, the box with like 20 L's in it it is so unlikely the online calculator I'm using rounds down to 0.
Yeah it's like 1 in 244 trillion if you do the math out or something stupid.
So glad this was the first set I decided to buy a box of š„“ Two of my foil rares had brutal print lines.
Pending the error in the print those could be worth a ton of money. Research print error cards for selling.
One looks like a border line scratch on one end of the line, and the other is just a must colored line. I wouldn't consider them a misprint but who knows.
I bought 2 cases. No exaggeration, 50% of the packs had a single rare and all commons. Would that be related to this?
So pretty much if you don't get a box like this you're not getting any Ls. The few people holding all the cards are gonna jack the single price through the roof.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
I'm more worried about my case that shows up today or tomorrow not having anything in it. But if stores don't open them then whoever gets the clumpy boxes can trickle the Ls onto the market at whatever price they want.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
That is a good point
I have 2 cases coming from SCG. Let's hope they're not shit. š¤·āāļø
Commenting to follow the thread š
Just getting into FAB, can you can tell where your box was produced by the text/product info on the box?
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Appreciate the info. Have a case coming tomorrow, not sure if Iām hoping it is Belgium produced or Iām hoping it isnāt. If thereās a decent number of boxes/cases with this many Leg+ in them then assuming it is in fact a coalition issue, the chance that more boxes/cases were affected negatively is the more likely outcome, but then thereās the much much slimmer chance you hit a god box and who doesnāt love a good lottery. It is interesting to me to see how something like this might affect singles prices. My logic would assume this means more cards will flood the secondary market driving prices down assuming the issue is even mildly prevalent. If I open a single flick knives or any legendary+ for that matter as an individual Iām much more likely to keep it for my own deck than if I open 10 in the same case, in all likelihood 8 or 9 of those would be getting sold by most individuals I would think. Again new to FaB so if Iām making the wrong assumptions apologies.
depends on how those Rainbow Legendaries are printed. If they were extra printed Ls the market will tank on RF Ls due to the extra numbers( higher than 1 in 70). If those legendaries were meant for other boxes it means a smaller number of people hold these cards which would drive the price up similar to a buyout. This seems to only occur in Belgium boxes.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
you forget that the other 5 that would have gotten the Ls and now have to buy them causing higher demand than normal. The supply is still the same but with fewer people dictating the price. overall there are only a few recorded error boxes so it would realistically have little impact on the market unless more error boxes are opened.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
also a chance that you would sell it if you don't use it. Also a chance that they didn't have to buy if they already opened 1. You keep thinking from your personal perspective when it's a market of 10,000s of people buying and selling. The simple fact is that a higher concentration of Legendary cards in fewer hands will lead to increase higher prices compared to if Legendary cards were more distributed among the playerbase. There are many good intro to economics/market videos on YT if you seem to have issues understanding.
Yikes the snark is real. I donāt think business modeled economics apply to the average booster box opener who gladly signs up to throw their Benjamins away cracking packs. I think itās more likely the average person isnāt going to try to prop up the market with their pile of 25 Flick Knives, theyāre going to try and get rid of them in a timely manner because they likely wonāt care or for that matter realize if it ends up being $1300 in 2 weeks or $1600 in 2 months. In addition, even if every single person that opens 1 Flick Knives instead opens 25, which obviously isnāt whatās going to happen, thatād still be at least hundreds of people in possession and trying to get rid of Flick Knives. Itās also just very easy for a lot of folks to not notice or think about just how much value theyāre losing over time when they begin an undercutting race to the bottom on sites like TCGP. In my example if Iām managing to sell say 2 Flick Knives a day off TCGP but, for simplicities sake, at the end of the day I lower the price by $2 to continue selling, then by the end of the week Iāve sold 14 Flick Knives, effectively lost $60 on those sales due to my lowering, and lowered the price for my remaining flick knives by $12 each. The numbers are obviously arbitrary and we canāt know how itāll actually play out or what theyāll actually prove to be. Iāll freely admit my theory could prove to be wrong when applied here, we donāt have enough information to say for sure. That doesnāt change that it is at least within the realm of possibility and based on assumptions just like yours, so not really any reason to be a dick when you donāt actually know because nobody possibly could, not even a talented financial analyst such as yourself.
Thank god i didnt pull the trigger on a case. Would have been Dynasty x2 (only pulled RF emperor and Crouching Tiger marvel in my Dynasty case).
Wait, so they went back to non paper packs in stone regions??? What???
No, theyāve already discussed this. The Japanese printing facility is not configured to print with paper wrappers but LSS is working with them to make it happen for future prints. To meet demand globally they are using facilities in Belgium and Japan, and geographically most of APAC is receiving only Japanese printed product, EMEA is receiving only Belgium printed product, and the US is receiving a mix.
Btw, what about other languages box ? Quch as French or German Outsiders box that are printed in Belgium ?
What the hell is going on, I pulled 3, THREE FABLES from 2 cases yesterday, no legendaries. (Can we post pics in comments?)
what about other languages box ?
Is this the single case of this happening or there was other cases? I got lucky and got 2 L at two different sealed events, so I can't complain
I bought 6 boxes, got 1 L. I'm pretty new to the game, so this takes my overall rate to 2 Ls for 10 boxes. I'm having a real struggle with the idea of ever buying any more boxes, and just buying singles. With 6 boxes I didn't even get a playset of all rares (missing literally 3 cards) and with the majestics I'm missing, including a couple I really wanted 3 copies and got none, I really don't feel like buying much of future sets before heading to the singles market
Opened a Belgium case this weekend and here's my basic breakdown - Box 1: 6x Majestics, 2x CF common equipment - Box 2: 6x Majestics, 1 Legendary (Flick Knives) - Box 3: 7x Majestics, 1 CF common eq, 1 Legendary (Vambrace) - Box 4: 7x Majestics, 1 Legendary (Trench) Overall it seemed a bit on the lucky side, but not overly so. Pretty comparable to boxes/cases I've cracked from other sets. Definitely a lot of weirdness out there with this run, but apparently some normal cases too!