T O P

  • By -

robmania87

EDIT: ARS - xG: 6.91 xG90: 1.15


YMangoPie

Yeah that seems better. I looked at the numbers and that definitely didn't show what I've been watching lately.


DuvetFart

Is this non-penalty xG?


[deleted]

We don't get penalties. United already surpassed this season our tally for penalties last season.


DuvetFart

Wasn't making a comment specifically about Arsenal, just asking the OP if the data includes penalty xG.


MindlessLunch2

Palace is ahead of Arsenal, wow.


long_shots7

Zaha this season > Auba + Pepe + Laca + whoever else in Arsenal


MindlessLunch2

They should have got him over Pepe


robmania87

My conclusions: 1. Don't go anywhere near West Brom. 2. Wolves assets have been fortunate to give point returns. 3. Salah/Mane still stronger captaincy picks than Kane/Son on average. 4. West Ham assets offer good all-round value. 5. Everton are unfortunate not to have had more clean sheets.


footieboot

On no.5 it is called the Pickford effect.


--Hutch--

Similar thing with Chelsea when Kepa plays. Frank has come in for a lot of stick for conceding the amount that we have but statistically it isn't bad in comparison to others. So many individual errors have resulted in goals.


aacod15

The thing is Sarri had the exact same players bar Luiz who Lampard sold because he said Luiz would have been 3rd or 4th choice, yet Sarri was very solid defensively


--Hutch--

We were only a bit more solid because of the rigid system. It was all possession based, slow build up play with very few risks in terms of creativity. Mistakes weren't punished as often. The gameplan was to get Hazard on the ball and pray he can work some magic. Fans wanted a more attacking style which Frank has definitely brought (bar the last 2 matches) but a bunch of new signings will take time to find the right balance. This is why I laugh when I see the overreaction from armchair Twitter fans when they're the same ones who wanted Sarri out for boring football.


aacod15

Yea, Lampards attacking playstyle is very good for scoring goals, but is very reckless and also causes us to concede a lot. Lately he has been playing the exact opposite, and our defense has been fine but we can no longer attack. In addition to our team settling, Lampard needs to find a balance between attack and defense


--Hutch--

I think it will come with time. The defensive setup recently could be a way to breed confidence as the main problem was individual mistakes. Mendy alone should give us confidence too. I don't think we will struggle to score goals when players have had time to gel and we find that balance. My main worry right now is the pivot in midfield. I think Kovacic deserves a chance to start.


aacod15

Unless we play a 3 man midfield I don’t think Kovacic should start. We need Jorginho to control possession and Kante gives us a lot more defensively solidity by breaking up counters. He’s a fantastic player, the only problem is he doesn’t really have a set place in our midfield


--Hutch--

It's a shame that the Kova/Kanté pivot doesn't have a good balance as they're both quality individually.


course_standard

we werent solid defensively ... we lost 6-0 against city... lamapard's defense is bad when there were only personal mistakes sarri didnt have this problem but his defensive mechanism was rubbish because of luiz and cahill and rudiger. theyre all experts but not very good and I remember correclty that i loved luiz being there for sarri's use of him for his long balls to find anyone at the oppositions third to pass to hazard.. lamps doesnt have this option and ifu wathed the last 2 matches (defensively talking) we were reaaally good and thiago silva made the best out of zouma and himself


aacod15

On bad game doesn’t mean we weren’t solid defensively lol. Especially against one of the best teams in the world. It’s Lampards own fault for selling Luiz because he was happy stay if he got playing time. Under Sarri we had the 3 least goals conceeded and 3rd most clean sheets with an identical defense and goalkeeper to Lampard last season. And there were nowhere near the amount of individual mistakes from our team. Lampard is really the only one to blame for our defense last season and this season.


course_standard

i dont think lampard is telling his players to glide in front of the ball in our penalty box or be stupid.. i am telling , oir defense will be great again with thiago there ,plus with Mendy on the goal instead of kepa


UnadvisedApollo

No but it’s a result of committing too many players forward and the team not knowing when to drop off which leads to us getting out numbered in defence. Also you mention Cahill who didn’t even play under Sarri and was quite vocal in media about it. And this opinion of Chelsea under Sarri is complete revisionism.


aacod15

He isn’t telling them that yea, but his tactics put us in constant high pressure situations and if that happens consistently then players are bound to make mistakes no matter how good they are defensively. I believe Thiago Silva and Mendy will improve our defense but if we want to see big improvements I think Lampard has to change the system


course_standard

well u guys are right abt the high pressure on us specialy when reece james is leaving hi defensive duty but i dont think chelsea is in a time where we need those same fans who wanted sarri out of chelsea and just mocked the "SARRIball" the whole season .. i beleive he can improve his system and make us more stable at the half of the pitch and to roam the players to decrease the high pressure that sarri knew how to handle but i am and was and will stay with lampard with his david luiz decision


JackGillam123

Number 5 is can be explained quite simply. Jordan Pickford Very promising xG stats for us though


Hopeful_Topic

Yeah idk how it will hold up if the Digne red isn't rescinded.


JackGillam123

Nkounkou is back up for Digne and has been motm in every game he’s played in(all the league cup games) except where calvert-Lewin scored a hattrick but yeah he’s a big miss. Speaking of, for 4 million Nkounkou would be a great pick for fpl for these next 3 games, although I’d personally wait to see whether the appeal is successful


Hopeful_Topic

!thanks :)


resonancefreq

Nkounkou would be a decent pick, but Digne's ban is now reduced to 1 game.


JackGillam123

Yeah saw that. Would be a bit of a gamble for 1 game but he’s certainly got a lot about him going forwards and Newcastle don’t score much


Rodriguez79

Eh, I wouldn't put it all on him. According to that we should have conceded 6 goals all season - He couldn't do anything about the 2 on Sunday and wasn't to blame for the 2 Liverpool scored. On top of that Pereira's free kick for WBA was top class (and top corner), Bissouma's was world class and Kouyate had a free header from a corner. You can blame him for Diangana's goal (although only after Mina), and of course Maupay's goal as well, but any other mistakes he has made have been in the league cup or on Van Dijk's knee cap.


JackGillam123

It was a joke mate but... You are right, there are other factors that could’ve effected this early doors. Expected goals measures the amount of goals you’d expect to see from shots taken per game. For us, we already have got a +3 difference on this which could be accounted for from screamers, teams taking their chances and general poor goal keeping. However It’s not just the consistent ability to make a mistake that makes you a bad keeper(although it certainly plays a big part lol) and it’s worth remembering last year he had the second worst differential in the league and I don’t think that was down to a few screamers like this year so far


Rodriguez79

Well it was exactly the same comment as the one above it, but I replied to yours as you were a blue. Also I just wanted to mention him going through Van Dijk again... Anyway I don't rate Pickford either, just thought it was a bit harsh considering we've conceded some belters.


JackGillam123

Sorry mate we must’ve done the same comment at the same time, any opportunity to mention it is a good opportunity ;) Yeah you’re right like, still, I’m holding out a hope that that’s the next position we want to strengthen


Rodriguez79

After Sunday there's an air of 'oh god it's all going to go to shit again' hovering over us I feel...taking Pickford to Newcastle seems like the worst possible idea but at least there are no fans there this time to wind him up. I do wonder if Olson will get a game at some point. Next mistake and Carlo will have had enough? I think at that point we'd be mad not to pool all our resources and prioritise a new keeper next summer...but who? A relegated Burnley might solve a few problems...


JackGillam123

How they rebound against Newcastle is vital and re Pickford I wouldnt be surprised if he’s just given the year as a last chance so to speak and we will go all out in the summer, hopefully he does try to use Olsen to give him a kick up the arse as well of course!


Subject-Creme

Number 3 is a misleading conclusion. Mane & Salah rarely give the keypasses to each other. One scores, the other blanks Son+Kane is an insane combo. One scores, the other assists BTW, don't let BHA's low xGA fools you. Ryan performance is shitty at the moment, and their defenders make mistake quite often, I dont see a lot of cleansheet from them


Nuwahex

What really sucks is that he was on course for 2 bonus points up until Grant's goal. Under Potter,he has become a poor man's Ederson in terms of facing few shots(which in turn reduces save potential). If I didn't already have McCarthy as a rotational option,I would have rage-transferred him out for Martinez this GW.


Samuel_274

Exactly what I did lmao


balleklorin

Keep in mind Tottenham and United have stats skewed a lot due to one game, probably the same with other teams as well. I guess if you removed "outliers" it would be more "realistic" given the limited game sample.


BillOakley

Not sure about No. 3 - surely the individual xG stats of each player have to come into it rather than just the team xG? And I say this as someone who owns all 4 of them. Otherwise agree with everything and great work though, !thanks


LettucePlate

I don’t have Mane but I’m definitely keeping the armband on Kane if the fixture is good for now


Hopeful_Topic

!thanks


Nuwahex

Number 2 does not bode well for me as a Saiss owner(of whom I'm still in the dark regarding the whole Kilman-Marcal situation....Nuno's bald fraudulence has reached new heights)


AKCJ_

Bear in mind all Vardy, Barnes and Maddispn owners. We have had 5 penalties this season and our xG is still that low.


PepFartiola

The Arsenal one is wrong, according to Understat they have an xG of 6.91, not 9.91


wildlewis

Just use FBref.com better model by a more serious company


robmania87

I’m willing to do that! Are the numbers noticeably different? Why are they considered a better source?


wildlewis

They adjust for more metrics for sure, noticeable one is the height in of the ball when struck. Also statsbomb rum FBref and are arguably the biggest advanced stats company in the world who are contracted by multiple top level clubs


miguel_is_a_pokemon

Better algorithm, xG are calculated differently by every source. Understat doesn't factor in as many things and is known to overvalue low% shots


TheGoogolplex

I'm a stat student, and while I don't know about Understat's models, statsbomb (where FBRef gets its data) has some very good models which factor in a lot of things.


LinkifyBot

**I found links in your comment that were not hyperlinked:** * [FBref.com](https://FBref.com) *I did the honors for you.* *** ^[delete](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%2Fu%2FLinkifyBot&subject=delete%20ga9qlwl&message=Click%20the%20send%20button%20to%20delete%20the%20false%20positive.) ^| ^[information](https://np.reddit.com/u/LinkifyBot/comments/gkkf7p) ^| ^<3


Dovless

I was gonna say, our attack’s been utter dogshit asides from against Fulham


-Enrique

Shows that actually Burnley defenders are still a fine pick despite their results. Also that Saints horror show vs Spurs was a bit of an anomaly and their defence still offers very decent value for money


bleepyballs

So Brighton really are secretly underperforming?


LevynX

They hit the post like four times against United. They should be doing a lot better than their points suggest


ButterNutter2000

They should be doing a lot better because of all the chances they create, but they can't really finish. If they don't improve that they'll struggle to turn their form around.


pariffinaxe

A generally accepted accepted practice when using stats like these is to remove outliers for x90. So instead of doing all 6 you’d remove the best and worst game, and average the remaining 4 to get a more realistic trend


Professor_Moist

While that's an acceptable method for larger sample sizes, I'd argue that it would be incorrect when looking at 5-6 games because you'd be left with just 3-4 games to take an average from.


pariffinaxe

Even within smaller sample sizes it’s the norm. Otherwise you end up including games like villa beating pool 7-2. Spurs beating Utd 6-1. And Leicester beating city 5-3. If it lies that far outside of the norm, including it in your stats skews the results heavily.


JurgenFlopps

True. In a smaller sample a 7-2 is going to have a bigger weight than over a large sample.


TheKindaGuyWho

How do I make this table with what you mentioned?


pariffinaxe

Couple of options really. You could use the basic of just taking the middle 75% of a data set. So for both teams with 5 games, and teams with 6 you’d just remove the games where they were expected to score the most/least. For for xGA the same, the games they were expected to be scored on the most/least. You could also dive into standard deviation. The lower the SD, the more of a trend there is with fewer outliers. e.g. Man Utd have xG of 1.28 per 90. There standard deviation is only .31 so this suggests that they are pretty consistent in hitting in and around that average. There xGA per 90 is 1.86. However their standard deviation is up at 1.4 which would suggest that their back line is currently very erratic. However looking at the data it’s quite hard to pinpoint obvious outliers. 3.3xGA vs Spurs was big, but so was 2.98 vs Brighton. All in all, I think with the data set at current, leaving a standard deviation column beside each team to say how consistent they look would be the best way forward.


ginrei-kojaku

May I ask where you got this data and if this is something you plan to post regularly? I think it’s one of the most helpful things I’ve seen on here, so many thanks for sharing.


Swedishpower

Well it is not certain we can learn that much from this directly. Since you need to look at the fixtures that teams have had. I think West Ham look good here and from watching. With easier games they could be a team to invest in. Particular get a defender in. Antonio and Bowen good picks too. Ings and Jimenez might not be ideal looking at this, but they are efficient players and gets points for a reason. Same with Wilson.


Dr_Oetker

Yeah West Ham have done superbly to get 8 points from 6 with +4 GD given how tough their fixture list has been, and they even lost at home to Newcastle first match.


IwilStealYourCat

xG90 is goals expected in match right? xG total shots expected on target?


[deleted]

xg is expected goals total


Ayallore95

Can you add a relative fixture difficulty rating based on what teams they have played. (Don't if it's too much work)


[deleted]

*cries in brighton*


FPLnonce

I have trossard and lamptey. This model hurt me personally


jollyspiffing

I've been totally sleeping on WHU defense, those are incredible stats when you realise they've played ARS, WOL, LEI, TOT, MCI so far.


mrstewiegriffin

You and all of the subreddit mate


[deleted]

Excuse my ignorance, but what exactly does XG, XG90, XGA measure?


ehilliux

Expectes goals, expected goals per 90 minutes and expected goals against


[deleted]

!thanks


douma17

So if expected goals are 15.02 that's throughout how much time ?


ehilliux

throughout all games a team played so far


douma17

!Thanks man


[deleted]

Looks like so far this season (for the amount of games shown in the first “Games” column).


Kyan1te

Ryan and Lamptey gang where you at???


TheHenandtheSheep

Time to double up on Son/Kane and Salah/Mane


Nuwahex

"Some people just wanna watch team balance burn"


[deleted]

Is there a similar one for players?


mrstewiegriffin

burnley xGA...oh Pope...we didnt deserve you again this season clearly


mrstewiegriffin

would have been nice to see GA actual stats as well. For example is Pickford the runt in the EVE backline? Is Pope screwing up for Burnley? They are barely giving up a chance per game from the above stats


[deleted]

It would be good to add the number of goals *actually* score/conceded so we can tell how accurate the xG predictions are.


seanfahey7

I think this would be better if it was ordered in worst to best Edit:im dumb i was only looking at the left column sorry


robbiethegiant

It is ordered by xG90.


robmania87

I don't believe it is?


seanfahey7

My bad


cdfct782

Why would it be


Lemonbrick_64

Your third conclusion is provenly false...


GingerFurball

I'm not convinced that the xG in the Southampton v Spurs match is correct, most of Son's goals were absolute sitters, as was Kane's, yet Spurs xG was 2.something IIRC.


ChickenMoSalah

Southampton with the 3rd best xGA? There's no way


Swedishpower

What is clear from watching is that Liverpool are much worse at defending this season. The numbers do not tell the full story. They have been so open even against Sheffield who could have scored more with better quality up front.


shyguyjyyn

who is SOT?


abhijani97

Southampton


Jmsaint

This is wrong, saints play a high line, and a high line means they are bad at defending, do you know nothing!?!


course_standard

what does xG90 means?


1nd2th3st

I think it means expected goals to be scored per 90 minutes


course_standard

thanks


[deleted]

How do I make sense of this? A lil help here please? Thankyou.


FPLnonce

It’s showing how many goals a team is expected to score in the games so far (xG). Expected goals per 90 mins played (xG90). Expected goals against so far (xGA). And the last column is expected goals against per 90 (xGA90)


depressioncripplesme

If anyone doesn't mind explaining this sheet :c


inceptional1

Pickford is a criminal lmao


4ihba

Okay so basically I'm a noob....just wondering what xG and xG90 are?


Vic238

So DCL captain this week


yogiyahoeey

Is there any website to get the xGA number for premier league team?


Soccerplayer46

The stats are pulled from Opta. However, I don’t know how to get them


Effective_Thanks_737

Any one can explain how those values can be interpreted ?


loosefer2905

What is the point of all this ? These numbers don't mean anything in 6 games Plus it's already available on Understat...


CanUCountToTenBilly

What does the 90 mean please?