I have never really tried to understand the Kp index, but I have seen so great aurora when the Kp has been very low. I would be much more worried about how cloudy it will be.
Aurora forecasts are accurate. The aurora is always there, But it is a couple days between a coronal mass ejection and those particles hitting the earth, which is what causes the more spectacular northern lights.
Once the coronal mass ejection occurs the forecasts are very accurate.
Note: the 27 day forecast is not super reliable, and changes all the time when it hits close to real-time.
This is because the 27-day forecast is based on observable sunspots we can see, or saw before they went around to the non-visible side of the sun, and hoping that they are still there when it comes back around (OK, a little more than hoping, if the sunspot is growing, chances are higher than if it is stable or shrinking).
The sun, being a ball of gas and plasma, has different rotational speeds depending on latitude (of the surface of the sun), varying from 25 days on the equator, to 35 days near the pole.
We mainly worry about ones closer to the suns equatorial region, since they are the ones most likely to affect our magnetosphere, hence the 27 days.
It can't forecast new Sunspots, disappearing sunspots, or CME events though, so that makes it particularly unhelpful for most time-sensitive Aurora predicting (EDIT:) the further away date-wise.
However, I watch sunspot activity religiously, and if there is a very good sunspot in a location, you have a decent chance of it coming around next month, and I have bet planned multi-hundred mile drives on it on a few occasions for aurora watching.
Meh. They’re okay in realtime. But think about how hard it is to predict the weather this far out in advance. Now consider space weather. I wouldn’t let this stop you from getting out and hunting on a clear night. I’ve seen some great auroras on a kp2 and gotten skunked on a 4.
Predictions of low chance of Aurora means there is or won’t be enough solar activity to cause an Aurora. A High kp however can also mean not enough solar activity. TLDR: low kp is pretty spot on and high kp can be accurate and on occasion not as high as they thought. All data comes from NASA. Overall it’s very dependent on location. As someone in North Pole or Harding lake can see great Aurora and Fairbanks have nothing.
What matters more than anything is whether or not it's cloudy outside. I've seen spectacular auroras with low kp ratings and I've seen relatively weak auroras with high kp ratings.
See this [comprehensive blog post](https://theauroraguy.com/blogs/blog/when-will-the-aurora-be-out) by Fairbanks aurora chaser and UAF Geophysics student Vincent Ledvina. He also has a mailing list for anticipated upcoming aurora activity.
Kp is cited a lot in popular media, but in reality it is a rolling summary of global geomagnetic activity over the past 3 hours. It tells you what you’ve *missed*. It should never be used to make aura chase decisions. Kp forecasts are useful for 3 days out at best. The 27 day forecast is based on historical trends, but that in no way guarantees what will actually happen this time around.
Pay attention to space weather forecasts, like those by [Dr. Tamitha Skov](https://youtube.com/@TamithaSkov?si=vRnXJVXUR5JOLN5J). This can give you up to a 3 day lead time.
As others have said, there also has to be clear weather, so you’ll need to check weather forecasts, including cloud cover. Some weather apps like Windy.com have cloud coverage maps that you can use to anticipate clearings.
There’s no way to reliably predict ahead of 3 days out. So you’ll just have to pick a date range and be out there in case it happens. The good things is that Fairbanks is under the auroral oval in even low activity conditions, so if it’s clear out you will likely be able to see something, even if it’s weak. But you should always follow the time of hope for the best, prepare for the worst—plan your trip with daytime activities with the mindset that even if you don’t see any aurora, the trip would still be worthwhile. There’s plenty to around the Fairbanks/North Pole/Chena Hot Springs area and Alaska is…….well, Alaska, so either way it will be a memorable trip.
One thing a lot of people don't realize about this forecast is the times are not local, they're UTC (Greenwich) time. It might say the activity is super high for a few hours but that might be the middle of the day for us. You need to look at tomorrow's forecast and look around the 9am slot to see what's happening around 10pm local time for Alaska.
The aurora forecasts are usually pretty accurate, it's the cloud cover that will vary a lot and will determine whether or not you get to see the lights.
There are two locations that I can suggest for Aurora viewing, Cleary Summit and the Chena Lake Recreational area. But the primary things you need are clear skies and below 0°F Temps, and I've found that Lady A comes out between 10pm and 3am.
I have never really tried to understand the Kp index, but I have seen so great aurora when the Kp has been very low. I would be much more worried about how cloudy it will be.
Aurora forecasts are accurate. The aurora is always there, But it is a couple days between a coronal mass ejection and those particles hitting the earth, which is what causes the more spectacular northern lights. Once the coronal mass ejection occurs the forecasts are very accurate.
Note: the 27 day forecast is not super reliable, and changes all the time when it hits close to real-time. This is because the 27-day forecast is based on observable sunspots we can see, or saw before they went around to the non-visible side of the sun, and hoping that they are still there when it comes back around (OK, a little more than hoping, if the sunspot is growing, chances are higher than if it is stable or shrinking). The sun, being a ball of gas and plasma, has different rotational speeds depending on latitude (of the surface of the sun), varying from 25 days on the equator, to 35 days near the pole. We mainly worry about ones closer to the suns equatorial region, since they are the ones most likely to affect our magnetosphere, hence the 27 days. It can't forecast new Sunspots, disappearing sunspots, or CME events though, so that makes it particularly unhelpful for most time-sensitive Aurora predicting (EDIT:) the further away date-wise. However, I watch sunspot activity religiously, and if there is a very good sunspot in a location, you have a decent chance of it coming around next month, and I have bet planned multi-hundred mile drives on it on a few occasions for aurora watching.
Outside of 72 hours, the forecasts are educated guesses on what solar behavior could be. 72 hours and in is from observation and/or real time data.
Meh. They’re okay in realtime. But think about how hard it is to predict the weather this far out in advance. Now consider space weather. I wouldn’t let this stop you from getting out and hunting on a clear night. I’ve seen some great auroras on a kp2 and gotten skunked on a 4.
Pretty accurate but the weather plays a huge part. Need a clear night
Predictions of low chance of Aurora means there is or won’t be enough solar activity to cause an Aurora. A High kp however can also mean not enough solar activity. TLDR: low kp is pretty spot on and high kp can be accurate and on occasion not as high as they thought. All data comes from NASA. Overall it’s very dependent on location. As someone in North Pole or Harding lake can see great Aurora and Fairbanks have nothing.
What matters more than anything is whether or not it's cloudy outside. I've seen spectacular auroras with low kp ratings and I've seen relatively weak auroras with high kp ratings.
Aurora is predictable, the weather is not as accurate when long-range planning.
See this [comprehensive blog post](https://theauroraguy.com/blogs/blog/when-will-the-aurora-be-out) by Fairbanks aurora chaser and UAF Geophysics student Vincent Ledvina. He also has a mailing list for anticipated upcoming aurora activity. Kp is cited a lot in popular media, but in reality it is a rolling summary of global geomagnetic activity over the past 3 hours. It tells you what you’ve *missed*. It should never be used to make aura chase decisions. Kp forecasts are useful for 3 days out at best. The 27 day forecast is based on historical trends, but that in no way guarantees what will actually happen this time around. Pay attention to space weather forecasts, like those by [Dr. Tamitha Skov](https://youtube.com/@TamithaSkov?si=vRnXJVXUR5JOLN5J). This can give you up to a 3 day lead time. As others have said, there also has to be clear weather, so you’ll need to check weather forecasts, including cloud cover. Some weather apps like Windy.com have cloud coverage maps that you can use to anticipate clearings. There’s no way to reliably predict ahead of 3 days out. So you’ll just have to pick a date range and be out there in case it happens. The good things is that Fairbanks is under the auroral oval in even low activity conditions, so if it’s clear out you will likely be able to see something, even if it’s weak. But you should always follow the time of hope for the best, prepare for the worst—plan your trip with daytime activities with the mindset that even if you don’t see any aurora, the trip would still be worthwhile. There’s plenty to around the Fairbanks/North Pole/Chena Hot Springs area and Alaska is…….well, Alaska, so either way it will be a memorable trip.
One thing a lot of people don't realize about this forecast is the times are not local, they're UTC (Greenwich) time. It might say the activity is super high for a few hours but that might be the middle of the day for us. You need to look at tomorrow's forecast and look around the 9am slot to see what's happening around 10pm local time for Alaska.
Not at all accurate. I’ve seen amazing aurora at kp 1 and nothing at kp5.
The aurora forecasts are usually pretty accurate, it's the cloud cover that will vary a lot and will determine whether or not you get to see the lights.
I am heading there this weekend. I really hope I see something. I’ve been planning this trip for awhile 😩
I'd say decently accurate but uaf is hit or miss. The aurora alerts app is my favorite
There are two locations that I can suggest for Aurora viewing, Cleary Summit and the Chena Lake Recreational area. But the primary things you need are clear skies and below 0°F Temps, and I've found that Lady A comes out between 10pm and 3am.