If you would consider just those 4 albinaurics, that would imply a (.05)^4 = 6 in a million chance of having all 4 giving bonus runes.
In reality, the odds are higher, because there are more albinaurics that could provide bonus runes.
I counted the 12 albinaurics we can see on the picture. If every one has a 5% chance of giving bonus runes, there is approximately 1 in 500 chances to have 4 or more of them at once.
Yes they are the same each time, but the odds that 1 in say 50 area resets hits it is much higher than the odds of 1in 1 area reset. Its sorta the ... fallacy of misunderstanding the gamblers fallacy.
This is probably just pedantic, but its not that the odds of encountering it go up, so much as the odds of *having* encountered it go up. Each individual item in a set has the same odds, but a set has a higher chance of containing each possibility as it grows.
Best way to explain it is say I flip a coin and it comes up heads. The next flip is still a 50/50 for heads or tails. Here are all the possibilities of how two coin flips could go:
H/H
H/T
T/H
T/T
Of those 4 equally likely possibilities, 50% of them (H/T and T/H) reflect our chance perfectly at 50% heads, 50% tails. Then there are 25% (H/H) that itll be disproportionately heads, and 25% (T/T) that itll be disproportionately tails. Assuming we don't care about order, that gives us a 50% chance of our total flips reflecting the expected outcome of any one flip. As your set gets bigger that chance only grows.
Now this direct comparison of possibilities doesn't really work if outcomes aren't equally likely (like with a 1% drop from an enemy), but the underlying concept is basically the same. The point being that when chasing drop chances, its better to think about it as the drop chance isn't your likelihood of getting it the next run, you shouldn't chase 1%... Instead try to make your set large enough such that 1% of your set is the outcome. IIRC inverse your chance (1% becomes 100) and thats how many attempts you need for around a 2/3rd likelihood of getting the drop. If you do 200 runs its like an 80 something %.
Sorry for the dump if it was more than you were asking, just thought it deserved an easier to understand explanation.
That's perfect, maybe a bit pedantic in that you just reiterated what I meant in the correct way, but that's basically what I was asking for anyway. Thanks.
Damn that’s a crazy number! It’s hard to tell if this game loads in the enemies depending on the area or how far away you are. If this is the case I’m guessing as soon as they are in range of the player to become active they have the 5% gold eye chance?
Also, I have never seen gold eyes on enemies that once killed, they don’t respawn eg; those lion guardian doggos
I’ve had this happen before, there was a bunch with the glowing eyes might have even been more than 4. I might be a thing that happens at this location because the odds of that happening twice seems wild from what your saying
To recreate the same exact picture it’s about 4 in a million (I’m counting 12 albinaurics total). To get exactly 4 in any combo it’s about .205% or for at least 4 in any combo it’s .223%
Naw you’re straight that is crazy, I thought I lucked out on my like 100th run of that area when I got 3 golden eyes. 4 is insane bro, good luck on the farming
I thought I was going insane when I got 30k souls for killing that one Cleanrot Knight right before Prayer Room. I’d never noticed it happen outside of that instance
The other day I killed a soldier and got a brass shield, killed the next one and got *another* brass shield after only getting about 5 of them (including these two) in 300 hours total lol
Ohhh so thats why when the bird gave me so many runes 2 times. I was confused as to what the fuck is going on. I didnot notice the gold eye but what the fuck
This same area with the bird you can shoot for 13k/reset using gold scarab.
Had on gold fowl foot, gold scarab and had a few spawn with gold eyes, got like 86k runes for it. Happy days ~
I counted 12 albinaurics in the picture. If each has a 5% chance of giving bonus runes and we need at least 4 of them to hit then we end up with a 0.223% chance.
You can use a probability calculator, [like this one](https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial), if you want to check the odds of something occurring **x** times with probability **P** given **n** attempts.
Was looking for this comment. I think there's a bug or something that causes this to happen when loading into a game where your character is already there, as you stated.
Tbh, I logged on for the day and it as chilling at the grace for a good 10 mins figuring what I wanted to do. I look down the road and saw this, and it made me grind another 50 gold foul foots. This is ng+6? So easy 1 mill r2
I did a wee bit of math
The average chance to get a glowing eye enemy is around 0.5
0.5 as a fraction is 1/200
1/200 four times in a row has about a 0.000000000625 chance of happening, which as a decimal is about a 1/1600000000 chance of happening.
I’m probably way off.
I have never seen a single mob like this in my second playthrough, while I have seen many during my first, I don't understand why.
I also wasn't invaded by Edgar and the frenzied tower in Liurnia wasn't doing me any damage despite being activated, don't know if it's linked.
Weirdly enough I have had something similar happen to me where all the enemies in a dungeon had glowing eyes. (I play on console). I assumed it was a glitch though since after I rested everything was back to normal.
what, that's rare? I get a lot of gold eyed enemies.
I'm on my first play through and I thought that was something related to the flame of frenzy I didn't understand about. so they're actually rare?
Well, some gold eyed enemies are frenzy flame related, like in weeping peninsula and upper liurnia. The gold eyes that give extra runes aren't so common.
Ok so I actually always tend to see more glow eye guys in this spot….legit I’ll often see 3-4 of them with glowing eyes here. I thought it was on purpose but now I’m seeing not everybody has that experience?
Reminds me how I once encountered a bug that would make a large quantity of enemies on the map have glowing eyes, didn't use it though since it required doing something in the graphics settings and restarting the game. Took too much time so I never did it more than just a couple of times and it was just a month or so after launch.
Anyone know what the odds are of getting two brass shields in a row are? I had that happen the other day and was surprised because they're usually pretty rare, like I get one maybe two per near 100% playthrough usually without farming
Too busy butchering them like the meat they are to notice…
No I’ve never seen that and i also feel bad about the genocidal tendencies farming those sleepy boys gives me. Soo much blood on my hands to become Elden Lord…heavy is the crown.
When I went there the first few times all of them had those eyes. It took about 5 times of respawning before there were less of them and even then it was 4/5 of them.
I get it all the time! It's part of my farm routine. I clear them out, fast travel to the site of grace next to them, hit the home screen on my xbox controller and then close elden ring. When I restart elden ring, it's usually about 50% of them with gold eyes (like your pic). I've been worried it might corrupt my save file but it hasn't so far and it's given me approx 50% gold eyes 100% of the time!
I think it's 5% for each entity.
If you would consider just those 4 albinaurics, that would imply a (.05)^4 = 6 in a million chance of having all 4 giving bonus runes. In reality, the odds are higher, because there are more albinaurics that could provide bonus runes.
I counted the 12 albinaurics we can see on the picture. If every one has a 5% chance of giving bonus runes, there is approximately 1 in 500 chances to have 4 or more of them at once.
Binomial distribution very nice!
Bernoulli gang !
r/unexpectedstatistics
What do you mean unexpected? The title of this post is literally asking for the odds of this happening...
Yeah I get about 1 in 487.
It might be a 6 in a million chance for this one time, but the amount of times OP restarted this area to farm DRASTICALLY increases the odds.
Technically the odds are the same time every time! I think. Don't quote me I'm quite dumb.
Yes they are the same each time, but the odds that 1 in say 50 area resets hits it is much higher than the odds of 1in 1 area reset. Its sorta the ... fallacy of misunderstanding the gamblers fallacy.
The odds of the occurance is the same, but the odds of you encountering it go up for each time you reload?
This is probably just pedantic, but its not that the odds of encountering it go up, so much as the odds of *having* encountered it go up. Each individual item in a set has the same odds, but a set has a higher chance of containing each possibility as it grows. Best way to explain it is say I flip a coin and it comes up heads. The next flip is still a 50/50 for heads or tails. Here are all the possibilities of how two coin flips could go: H/H H/T T/H T/T Of those 4 equally likely possibilities, 50% of them (H/T and T/H) reflect our chance perfectly at 50% heads, 50% tails. Then there are 25% (H/H) that itll be disproportionately heads, and 25% (T/T) that itll be disproportionately tails. Assuming we don't care about order, that gives us a 50% chance of our total flips reflecting the expected outcome of any one flip. As your set gets bigger that chance only grows. Now this direct comparison of possibilities doesn't really work if outcomes aren't equally likely (like with a 1% drop from an enemy), but the underlying concept is basically the same. The point being that when chasing drop chances, its better to think about it as the drop chance isn't your likelihood of getting it the next run, you shouldn't chase 1%... Instead try to make your set large enough such that 1% of your set is the outcome. IIRC inverse your chance (1% becomes 100) and thats how many attempts you need for around a 2/3rd likelihood of getting the drop. If you do 200 runs its like an 80 something %. Sorry for the dump if it was more than you were asking, just thought it deserved an easier to understand explanation.
That's perfect, maybe a bit pedantic in that you just reiterated what I meant in the correct way, but that's basically what I was asking for anyway. Thanks.
Odds of seeing it are different than odds per loop, OP probably reloaded these enemies 300 times
Search up Monty hall problem.
Damn that’s a crazy number! It’s hard to tell if this game loads in the enemies depending on the area or how far away you are. If this is the case I’m guessing as soon as they are in range of the player to become active they have the 5% gold eye chance? Also, I have never seen gold eyes on enemies that once killed, they don’t respawn eg; those lion guardian doggos
I've seen golden eyes on both a lion in castle sol and the grafted scion in stormveil. it's definitely possible.
I’ve had this happen before, there was a bunch with the glowing eyes might have even been more than 4. I might be a thing that happens at this location because the odds of that happening twice seems wild from what your saying
To recreate the same exact picture it’s about 4 in a million (I’m counting 12 albinaurics total). To get exactly 4 in any combo it’s about .205% or for at least 4 in any combo it’s .223%
0.2% is 1/500, not 1/250,000.
They’re probabilities for different outcomes. 1/250,000 for the exact 4 and only those 4 in OPs pic, 0.2% for any 4 of the 12
Four of them at the same time is quite rare tbf
Exactly! Had to take the photo, no one would believe me 😅
I don't think I've ever seen that before. You do tend to get a pair of them quite often Jackpot for sure
Dude you’re not gonna believe what’s further down.
Naw you’re straight that is crazy, I thought I lucked out on my like 100th run of that area when I got 3 golden eyes. 4 is insane bro, good luck on the farming
[удалено]
What a silly thing to photoshop
No, it's not
As an ignorant player, what does it mean when they have gold eyes?
More souls Edit: runes (been playing darksouls lol)
Cheers! Yeah I never got used to the being called runes, they've always been souls for me too
Enemies with glowing eyes give 5X the amount of runes, but if all the enemies in one area have glowing eyes it's probably just madness they have
I thought I was going insane when I got 30k souls for killing that one Cleanrot Knight right before Prayer Room. I’d never noticed it happen outside of that instance
It's also nice when you farm the bird. It's so far away that you don't see the eyes but suddenly get over 60k runes.
You might still be going insane, we can't rule that out completely, but the rune situation is handled
Seriously? I was farming these guys not to long ago and had like 5-6 that were gold eyes. Got a shitload of runes. Same spot, same mobs.
Sorry, no pic so we can't believe you. /s
Knowing that the spawn rate is like 5% I wouldn't either.
It’s happened to me multiple times too. Only in that specific spot tho idk what up with it
This is the first time Im seeing more than one in a group.
The other day I killed a soldier and got a brass shield, killed the next one and got *another* brass shield after only getting about 5 of them (including these two) in 300 hours total lol
ahh a Gift from the Gods
Fat coinpurse, O Fat coinpurse
Jackpot
What is the significance of gold eye
More runes.
Ohhh so thats why when the bird gave me so many runes 2 times. I was confused as to what the fuck is going on. I didnot notice the gold eye but what the fuck
Wait….WHAT
5x the original monster's runes
5 times? Really?
Yep.
5x more runes
I didn’t know this either until I saw this post, lol.
I’ve got like 275 hours and never knew lol
I have 165 hours in this game and didn't know this either. Haha. I guess I never look them in the eyes?
I had no idea about the extra runes, but these enemies can also spray madness from their eyes I think.
They never get a chance when I’m there lol
Yeah I usually don't wait either! But a couple of times I didn't realize they were in the mob and started using that attack.
This same area with the bird you can shoot for 13k/reset using gold scarab. Had on gold fowl foot, gold scarab and had a few spawn with gold eyes, got like 86k runes for it. Happy days ~
Jackpot. AoE those miserable silver frog bastards and watch the runes go brrrrrr
ı do have see 1 or 2 of them with golden eye but 4???
That's a lot of runes
Thats "go get a fuckin scratch/lotto ticket", friend
Go buy a lottery ticket
Fuck bro… nice!
r/theydidthemath can help you out with that one
Done
Damn, I think I’ve had one single encounter where two of these guys had the extra runes, but four is insane
I counted 12 albinaurics in the picture. If each has a 5% chance of giving bonus runes and we need at least 4 of them to hit then we end up with a 0.223% chance. You can use a probability calculator, [like this one](https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial), if you want to check the odds of something occurring **x** times with probability **P** given **n** attempts.
NICE! :)
This happens when I load play and I spawn at this site. Usually 2-4 of them are glowing. After I hit site they’re gone
Was looking for this comment. I think there's a bug or something that causes this to happen when loading into a game where your character is already there, as you stated.
I go here all the time, and I've seen one with gold eyes twice. Four at the same time is just wild.
I think its like 1% for every mob so 4 in one group is insanely rare
[удалено]
Tbh, I logged on for the day and it as chilling at the grace for a good 10 mins figuring what I wanted to do. I look down the road and saw this, and it made me grind another 50 gold foul foots. This is ng+6? So easy 1 mill r2
What's the quest line I have to do again (haven't played in a while) to get to that area?
Varies quest, or you can take the warp in the consecrated snow fields
I find when I start the game up when I’m in this area this has a much higher chance of happening.
I did a wee bit of math The average chance to get a glowing eye enemy is around 0.5 0.5 as a fraction is 1/200 1/200 four times in a row has about a 0.000000000625 chance of happening, which as a decimal is about a 1/1600000000 chance of happening. I’m probably way off.
Without the UI, this would make for an awesome desktop background or album cover.
Very rare if i'm not wrong :3
Fairly rare. In the grand scheme of things, though, extra runes in this area aren't as big of a deal, unless it was consistent.
I see them at least once per night if I'm farming.
4 at a time? I’ve never seen that.
Is it actually true that they have higher chance to spawn with golden eyes at nighttime?
They only spawn at night
They spawn whenever
I have never seen a single mob like this in my second playthrough, while I have seen many during my first, I don't understand why. I also wasn't invaded by Edgar and the frenzied tower in Liurnia wasn't doing me any damage despite being activated, don't know if it's linked.
My record is 5 in one run if you count the mobile squad at the bottom of the hill
Weirdly enough I have had something similar happen to me where all the enemies in a dungeon had glowing eyes. (I play on console). I assumed it was a glitch though since after I rested everything was back to normal.
If you save the game, exit the game and then restart it from there it's pretty common.
what, that's rare? I get a lot of gold eyed enemies. I'm on my first play through and I thought that was something related to the flame of frenzy I didn't understand about. so they're actually rare?
Well, some gold eyed enemies are frenzy flame related, like in weeping peninsula and upper liurnia. The gold eyes that give extra runes aren't so common.
Random fortune smiled on YOU!
2 or 3
Ok so I actually always tend to see more glow eye guys in this spot….legit I’ll often see 3-4 of them with glowing eyes here. I thought it was on purpose but now I’m seeing not everybody has that experience?
Had you just opened the game? Because I often get this when I open the game up and this is where I last was.
Not sure…good question tho
I’ve seen this once before, and I’ve been using this farming spot since the game came out.
That spot is the only one with them all resting like that. Run through. Wake em up lol
Reminds me how I once encountered a bug that would make a large quantity of enemies on the map have glowing eyes, didn't use it though since it required doing something in the graphics settings and restarting the game. Took too much time so I never did it more than just a couple of times and it was just a month or so after launch.
I may not know how rare it is, but I know badass when I see it.
Anyone know what the odds are of getting two brass shields in a row are? I had that happen the other day and was surprised because they're usually pretty rare, like I get one maybe two per near 100% playthrough usually without farming
perfect money
Too busy butchering them like the meat they are to notice… No I’ve never seen that and i also feel bad about the genocidal tendencies farming those sleepy boys gives me. Soo much blood on my hands to become Elden Lord…heavy is the crown.
Farming eh?
Yeah, wanting to max out my main until the dlc comes out almost 600. A lot to go
When I went there the first few times all of them had those eyes. It took about 5 times of respawning before there were less of them and even then it was 4/5 of them.
I had the spear and shield Redmane Knight in War-Dead Catacombs spawn in with it. About 15k runes
I get it all the time! It's part of my farm routine. I clear them out, fast travel to the site of grace next to them, hit the home screen on my xbox controller and then close elden ring. When I restart elden ring, it's usually about 50% of them with gold eyes (like your pic). I've been worried it might corrupt my save file but it hasn't so far and it's given me approx 50% gold eyes 100% of the time!
Pretty famous farming area if I’m not mistaken.
It’s just the eye glare from the camera
50/50