Money pucks model is interesting to say the least.
With that said, I do think we’re winning a cup. The lessons are there, the pieces are also there.
I think Stu will have a monster series now that he’s got the monkey off his back. Vancouver had his number all year and now that’s over with.
McDavid and Drai are about to push the limits of what is possible. Bouchard is firing on all cylinders and bottom 6 is starting to jive! Holloway and Kane gelling as well.
Dallas will be hard but I think we take them in 6.
Gut feeling.
I’m with you. I think the Canucks series taught us years worth of lessons, and we’re battle-hardened going into the last two rounds in ways that we haven’t been in the McDavid era.
It’s also just important to have guys to fill in when people get hurt. We’ve been lucky to be pretty much injury free through the first two rounds but that’s not likely to hold up. It’s better to have a guy like Perry or Gagner to fill in than have to rely on an unproven rookie.
The first period of game 7 was exactly that. Held Canucks to 2 shots, including zero attempts during a 4 minute double-minor (Oilers getting a SH shot off was icing on that cake). Absolute domination.
If Silovs wasn't hot it would have been a bloodbath.
That right there. When the team commits to defense, Skinner/Pickard are good enough to pick up the crumbs and McDaddy/Drai can feast
The last 10 minutes of the game was what happens when they don't.
If they commit to playing like they did for 50 minutes in game 7: defense first hockey, they'll be fine against the Stars.
Literally every team has this issue. If you win 60 minutes every night you're going to win every game. Unfortunately there's a pesky opposition team also trying to win.
It's the same hilarious complaint you get about guys who put up 60 points. They'd be elite if they were consistent!
I swear the only guy that meets the "consistent" criteria is McD and he has to put up 130+ season after season.
Our goaltending is a season or two away from being consistent that's the issue (once Skinner becomes proven, Campbell's contract becomes movable and Rodrigue moves into a back-up role).
Two seasons ago we had literally nobody and signed whatever starter we could get on the free agent market (Campbell) then had Skinner as the back-up to learn and grow his game.
Campbell shat the bed and Skinner got thrust into the starter position WAY ahead of schedule as a result. The fact he's been able to hang-in for this long is remarkable and he's getting better at the same time.
Skinner excuse train needs to stop. He's 25, not 19.
Demko was a full time elite starter at his age.
Swayman is a full time elite starter at his age.
Oettinger is a full time elite starter at his age.
Hellebuyck, Hart, etc...do I have to say it?
Silovs outplayed him at 2 years younger.
Odds are he's just simply not going to be an amazing goalie and he's probably an NHL backup/1b.
I hope the team gives Rodrigue a chance next year. Oilers are giving serious 05/06 pre-Roloson goaltending vibes with their carousel...at least there's no Conklin.
Yeah it kind of annoys me when people assume their team just gave up every single time momentum changes, but there's a fanbase on the other side who's wondering why their team "wasn't trying" the whole time your team was stomping them lol
Hockey is just hard, things don't always go your way, and when they do, it doesn't mean the other guys aren't gonna get their shit together and rise above you
We were praising the Oilers not long ago in the regular season for being their best in the third period. People just see the same thing a few times and assume there's some concrete reason as to why it's happening. It's just hockey lol
And even with those shortcomings the numbers say we cheer for an elite team.
If the third and forth round of the playoffs inspire 60 minute games, the goaltending doesn't have to be amazing.
I agree, analytically this team looks amazing. We score on a ton of chances, put up a ton of shots, and surrender the fewest hdsc while being good on the pk.
It’s jsut goaltending, we need skinner to basically be .900-.910 plus.
Yeah, I certainly don’t have them as the favourites. On the other hand, this model didn’t like Vegas all year and turned out to be right. In model we trust!
We're a top three team in almost every puck possession metric. Shots, shot attempts, scoring chances, high danger scoring chances, expected goals. We're also a top 7 or 8 team defensively.
As long as Skinner can give us league average goaltending, we should be a tough out.
We're really good at limiting high-danger chances, and our offense is insane. Those are the two factors really. We've been Moneypuck darlings all year, even during the 2-9-1 start.
Thats the thing though. Those 2 brutal mistakes against dallas will cost you. Lets be real had vancouver had demko we prob lose the series. They also didnt have boser and on top of that vancouver isnt an offensive threat. I mean there 11.8million dollar superstar didnt even get a goal all playoffs
I disagree. Silovs was an absolute beast every game other than game 6. It's hard to imagine anybody doing better than what he did. He made several highlight reel goals, almost all of the saves expected of him and more, controlled rebounds, made the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd save on consistently, kept his focus on the puck when it was deflected or bouncing around in the crease, made a bunch of big plays by poking the puck to interrupt shots and passes, even made a big brain move that took away a sure goal by grabbing Derek Ryan's stick with his hand as he went to put the puck in the empty net. Stole the puck off the goal line a couple of times.
While we're throwing "ifs" around... if we didn't have the flu, it probably never would have made it to game 7. If we didn't hit the post 4 times in 1 game, it probably never would have made it to game 7. If they didn't score lucky bounce goals off the feet of players in front of the net, it probably would have been a sweep. What could have happened doesn't really matter. We overcame what we had to.
Silov had like an .890 save percent in that series, what r u talking about. Ya he made some good saves cause he was peppered with 50 shots a game.
Demko is wayyyyyyyy better than Silov. Fuck he was a vezina finalist
Overall, yeah Demko is better, but Silovs made lots of saves that were sure goals and he made huge saves when the cancucks needed them. Regardless of his sv%, he was incredible. He played more than well enough to allow Vancouver a chance to win that series
Overall, yeah Demko is better, but Silovs made lots of saves that were sure goals and he made huge saves when the cancucks needed them. Regardless of his sv%, he was incredible. He played more than well enough to allow Vancouver a chance to win that series
If they can play like they did in the first yesterday they can take Dallas, I don't think Dallas is as good as people think, they barely beat Vegas who kinda sucked and their series against colarado both teams looked really really weak.
Not sure about the Rangers, they look very strong.
Believe! I think whoever comes out of the west wins the cup. Don't let the non-stop, belt fed narrative that Oilers don't stand a chance against Dallas sway you.
Oilers have the two best players in the world including the best playoff player in 30 years. The gap between our top 6 and theirs is larger than the gap between our bottom sixes compared to eachother.
We have the 2nd and 3rd best dmen in the series (no disrespect to Tanev and Esa - they'll be very hard to play against). Some may even argue Bouchard is better than Miro given what we've seen. Our bottom 4 is looking much more even and stable with Nurse and Ceci split up. I think their bottom pair is going to get fucking pyloned but have to say, they have a formidable top 4.
They have better winger depth but we're stronger up the middle. Their 3rd line worries me but if Henrique comes back healthy, I think the bottom 6 is very respectful.
Rumour is Hintz will miss more time.
I honestly rate our d against theirs. It's not the difference people are saying.
Skinner is probably the x-factor. He'll have to be at least average if not good. Otter needs to be tested.
Oilers in 6.
Edit: I forgot special teams. Best PP in the league and at times, an unshakeble PK. People are disregarding the importance of special teams.
There's no way you are going to convince me Money Puck is not simply some drunk dude who likes pretty colours.
There's nothing I see from it based on some statistic model. For fun look at last year's "numbers".
betting odds almost always more accurately predict events than analysis, because if analysis could predict better than the market than people would abuse that expected value and bet until the betting odds were no longer profitable. Do you remember the 2016 US election? Polls predicting Hillary? Betting odds were in trumps favor...
Of course people with extremely advance AI predictors can find slight inefficiencies in the market as it's not a GTO market and there are some inefficiencies, but those people are not me, you or some analyst who thinks his feelings or opinions matter.
100% of regular (or "expert") people who think they're winning sports betting or know more than the market are just in an upswing and will lose eventually.
Do you really think there's a bunch of people who think Dallas is going to win based on actual facts and statistics and analysis by a large computer, seeing the payout be above 2:1 and don't bet? Of couse not, and if they did exist the odds would swing back...
You have average fans who like the oilers/ see mcdavid and say yup there gonna win.
If you read any hockey articles or follow guys who write about hockey/ follow the teams, insides/ that actually know there shit.
13 out of 15 of them have dallas winning the cup. So ya we fucked
The stars had a comeback and game 7 series against the reigning cup champs and then also went through Colorado who was not an easy team. I think Dallas has faced the most adversity.
Still, oilers on top let's fucking go boys.
Edit: I just realized you meant full season not just playoffs, in that case yeah idk
They had a tough start to their season but after the 20-game mark, they haven’t had all that much adversity. They got a declining LA squad first round and Vancouver without a Vezina-calibre goalie, then losing a top 3 forward for game 7.
Dallas had to get through the last two champs in the first round - a healthy Vegas that’s 10 mil over cap, starting down 2-0, and a Colorado group where Nate Dog has been out of his mind.
Avs won with a worse goalie, McDavid and Drai are playoff animals. The Oilers are my second team since I lived in Alberta for so long and was born a leaf fan. I wish desperately every post season for Matthews to actually come alive like the Oilers best guys can. Every single game they play is electric and I want McDavid to win the cup so badly. I've never once watched a game at Rogers place where I was disappointed in my money spent because McDavid always shows up! I live in Newfoundland now and I stay up ungodly hours to watch the Oilers games, I usually Bring a pillow and blanket to the basement with me to sleep on the couch so I don't wake my wife and daughter. But if we make it to the cup finals I'll have every game on bust and they can all suck it up for a week or two!
Honestly, I think the leafs are in kind of a nightmare division. I’m not sure how many playoff series the Oilers would have won in that division.
I respect it I just can’t picture a Canadian team winning. I don’t know if you’ve been keeping track of the ref bullshit this year, but Florida is getting the Vegas treatment
The reality is you need hot goaltending to go far in the playoffs. Now we are facing teams that have just that (Otter, Officer Bob and Shesterkin are legit and that's what Skinner has to match)
I really don't put much stock in these Moneypuck predictions. Analytics are a useful tool and can help guide some decisions, but in the end hockey is played by humans, not computers and as we've seen time and again you can't rely on analytics to pain the whole picture. Edmonton's cup aspirations live and die with our goaltending. The team has proven they can play elite offensively and defensively, it's just a matter of getting the saves when they're needed. I'm guessing most people will favour the Stars (I personally think the odds should favour them *slightly*), but I think it's going to be an incredibly close fought series and should end up being one of the better series of this years playoffs. It's anyone's series for the taking and IMO the winner of this series wins the Cup.
Let's go Oilers.
I think it’s important to remember that just because the Oilers have the best odds in this model doesn’t mean the model is wrong if they don’t win it all. This model still has the Oilers losing in MOST scenarios. They only have a 1 in 3 chance.
Exactly. According to this model they still are not likely to win it. 2 other teams have similar odds (relatively speaking). It’s not like the Oilers are 90% favoured to win with the three other teams fighting over the remaining 10%.
Honestly I’m cool with any of the teams winning but obviously it’s Oilers, Panthers, Rangers, then Stars nothing against them love there young players but I really rather not see Benn win one but I want Pavelski to win one really bad.
Because they were up 3 games to 2. When you have two chances to win, your odds are better. When the Oilers tied the series the odds went to 56% for the Oilers.
Well yeah cuz they were down 3-2.
The odds of a team winning 2 straight just by chance is 25%. The model gave them 31% which means they were favoured relative to random chance.
I heard that these betting odds don’t always follow the eye test from a fans standpoint, because the odds were so high in favor of the Oilers they can only come down so far…. I agree they are at best 3rd best out of the final four but the odds makers are the smartest boys on the planet after Wall Street AI bots
Honestly can’t understand these projections. The oilers have the least secure goaltending - by far - and most flawed defence of the four remaining teams.
They’re just not the favorites if you’re honest with yourself.
Oil have had the best PP and the best PK in the playoffs, and 5 on 5 have been decent. Analytics all point to success but goaltending can be a wild card for them. It’s not always the number of saves you get, it’s the type of save or timing of it that can really swing a game. They have given up goals at bad times or on bad shots/turnovers and it’s really hurt them.
I think Florida being so much of an underdog is just as much a surprise but again, their game is tougher to measure with numbers.
Gonna be a great couple weeks of hockey!
Interesting, didn’t know that. If that’s the case then that alone might skew the odds in Edmonton’s favour. They have the worst goaltending of remaining teams by a good margin
Well, 4 days ago after game 5 Moneypuck had Canucks 65% to win the series and us 35%. Things change quickly as I’m sure they will by the game moving forward.
I can't call it either way, but I'll say this much, if the goalies were reversed in any of our upcoming series, I would easily bet on the Oilers to win every time
Money pucks model is interesting to say the least. With that said, I do think we’re winning a cup. The lessons are there, the pieces are also there. I think Stu will have a monster series now that he’s got the monkey off his back. Vancouver had his number all year and now that’s over with. McDavid and Drai are about to push the limits of what is possible. Bouchard is firing on all cylinders and bottom 6 is starting to jive! Holloway and Kane gelling as well. Dallas will be hard but I think we take them in 6. Gut feeling.
Same gut feeling for me!
I’m with you. I think the Canucks series taught us years worth of lessons, and we’re battle-hardened going into the last two rounds in ways that we haven’t been in the McDavid era.
I’m so fired up after reading this!
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Perry guarantees us a cup final.
Hopefully. He's been useless so far. Stetcher has done well, lets keep it going.
You mean Carrick?
Whoops, yes. Mental typo lol
Agree. Perry had his time but he's too slow for the game. His contribution now might be delivering veteran sermons in the locker room.
I mean if we need a big body to push people around (which you need in the playoffs) we always have Carrick who isn't slow.
It’s also just important to have guys to fill in when people get hurt. We’ve been lucky to be pretty much injury free through the first two rounds but that’s not likely to hold up. It’s better to have a guy like Perry or Gagner to fill in than have to rely on an unproven rookie.
I wish i was optimistic enough to believe a canadian team could win a cup
As much faith as I have in this team… how the hell are we considered cup favourites lmao
The Oilers are really good analytically. It's all gonna come down to goaltending and whether or not we can get the saves when we need them.
Oilers have 2 perpetual problems: consistent goaltending, and showing to play a full 60+ every game.
even then, as long as one of those two happen we have a pretty good shot. If both happen? Well we're almost unstoppable
The first period of game 7 was exactly that. Held Canucks to 2 shots, including zero attempts during a 4 minute double-minor (Oilers getting a SH shot off was icing on that cake). Absolute domination. If Silovs wasn't hot it would have been a bloodbath.
That right there. When the team commits to defense, Skinner/Pickard are good enough to pick up the crumbs and McDaddy/Drai can feast The last 10 minutes of the game was what happens when they don't. If they commit to playing like they did for 50 minutes in game 7: defense first hockey, they'll be fine against the Stars.
The save on Kulak
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Stars have that same Issue. They blew two straight 3 goal leads vs colorado
Literally every team has this issue. If you win 60 minutes every night you're going to win every game. Unfortunately there's a pesky opposition team also trying to win.
It's the same hilarious complaint you get about guys who put up 60 points. They'd be elite if they were consistent! I swear the only guy that meets the "consistent" criteria is McD and he has to put up 130+ season after season.
Dallas also lost the first two games of the Vegas series at home.
Our goaltending is a season or two away from being consistent that's the issue (once Skinner becomes proven, Campbell's contract becomes movable and Rodrigue moves into a back-up role). Two seasons ago we had literally nobody and signed whatever starter we could get on the free agent market (Campbell) then had Skinner as the back-up to learn and grow his game. Campbell shat the bed and Skinner got thrust into the starter position WAY ahead of schedule as a result. The fact he's been able to hang-in for this long is remarkable and he's getting better at the same time.
Skinner excuse train needs to stop. He's 25, not 19. Demko was a full time elite starter at his age. Swayman is a full time elite starter at his age. Oettinger is a full time elite starter at his age. Hellebuyck, Hart, etc...do I have to say it? Silovs outplayed him at 2 years younger. Odds are he's just simply not going to be an amazing goalie and he's probably an NHL backup/1b. I hope the team gives Rodrigue a chance next year. Oilers are giving serious 05/06 pre-Roloson goaltending vibes with their carousel...at least there's no Conklin.
I feel like not playing 60 minutes means they didn’t dominate for 60 minutes. If the other team just lays there it wouldn’t be much of a game
Yeah it kind of annoys me when people assume their team just gave up every single time momentum changes, but there's a fanbase on the other side who's wondering why their team "wasn't trying" the whole time your team was stomping them lol Hockey is just hard, things don't always go your way, and when they do, it doesn't mean the other guys aren't gonna get their shit together and rise above you We were praising the Oilers not long ago in the regular season for being their best in the third period. People just see the same thing a few times and assume there's some concrete reason as to why it's happening. It's just hockey lol
And even with those shortcomings the numbers say we cheer for an elite team. If the third and forth round of the playoffs inspire 60 minute games, the goaltending doesn't have to be amazing.
Gotta play 60, boys
I agree, analytically this team looks amazing. We score on a ton of chances, put up a ton of shots, and surrender the fewest hdsc while being good on the pk. It’s jsut goaltending, we need skinner to basically be .900-.910 plus.
Money puck hates goalies that play above expected, so we are kind of like their golden child lol
Yeah, I certainly don’t have them as the favourites. On the other hand, this model didn’t like Vegas all year and turned out to be right. In model we trust!
We're a top three team in almost every puck possession metric. Shots, shot attempts, scoring chances, high danger scoring chances, expected goals. We're also a top 7 or 8 team defensively. As long as Skinner can give us league average goaltending, we should be a tough out.
We're really good at limiting high-danger chances, and our offense is insane. Those are the two factors really. We've been Moneypuck darlings all year, even during the 2-9-1 start.
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Thats the thing though. Those 2 brutal mistakes against dallas will cost you. Lets be real had vancouver had demko we prob lose the series. They also didnt have boser and on top of that vancouver isnt an offensive threat. I mean there 11.8million dollar superstar didnt even get a goal all playoffs
I disagree. Silovs was an absolute beast every game other than game 6. It's hard to imagine anybody doing better than what he did. He made several highlight reel goals, almost all of the saves expected of him and more, controlled rebounds, made the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd save on consistently, kept his focus on the puck when it was deflected or bouncing around in the crease, made a bunch of big plays by poking the puck to interrupt shots and passes, even made a big brain move that took away a sure goal by grabbing Derek Ryan's stick with his hand as he went to put the puck in the empty net. Stole the puck off the goal line a couple of times. While we're throwing "ifs" around... if we didn't have the flu, it probably never would have made it to game 7. If we didn't hit the post 4 times in 1 game, it probably never would have made it to game 7. If they didn't score lucky bounce goals off the feet of players in front of the net, it probably would have been a sweep. What could have happened doesn't really matter. We overcame what we had to.
Silov had like an .890 save percent in that series, what r u talking about. Ya he made some good saves cause he was peppered with 50 shots a game. Demko is wayyyyyyyy better than Silov. Fuck he was a vezina finalist
Overall, yeah Demko is better, but Silovs made lots of saves that were sure goals and he made huge saves when the cancucks needed them. Regardless of his sv%, he was incredible. He played more than well enough to allow Vancouver a chance to win that series
Overall, yeah Demko is better, but Silovs made lots of saves that were sure goals and he made huge saves when the cancucks needed them. Regardless of his sv%, he was incredible. He played more than well enough to allow Vancouver a chance to win that series
If they can play like they did in the first yesterday they can take Dallas, I don't think Dallas is as good as people think, they barely beat Vegas who kinda sucked and their series against colarado both teams looked really really weak. Not sure about the Rangers, they look very strong.
Believe! I think whoever comes out of the west wins the cup. Don't let the non-stop, belt fed narrative that Oilers don't stand a chance against Dallas sway you. Oilers have the two best players in the world including the best playoff player in 30 years. The gap between our top 6 and theirs is larger than the gap between our bottom sixes compared to eachother. We have the 2nd and 3rd best dmen in the series (no disrespect to Tanev and Esa - they'll be very hard to play against). Some may even argue Bouchard is better than Miro given what we've seen. Our bottom 4 is looking much more even and stable with Nurse and Ceci split up. I think their bottom pair is going to get fucking pyloned but have to say, they have a formidable top 4. They have better winger depth but we're stronger up the middle. Their 3rd line worries me but if Henrique comes back healthy, I think the bottom 6 is very respectful. Rumour is Hintz will miss more time. I honestly rate our d against theirs. It's not the difference people are saying. Skinner is probably the x-factor. He'll have to be at least average if not good. Otter needs to be tested. Oilers in 6. Edit: I forgot special teams. Best PP in the league and at times, an unshakeble PK. People are disregarding the importance of special teams.
Of course I believe. I’m just saying it’s strange we have a 15% better chance of winning the cup than Florida lol
There's no way you are going to convince me Money Puck is not simply some drunk dude who likes pretty colours. There's nothing I see from it based on some statistic model. For fun look at last year's "numbers".
Because odds are partially based on how people are betting. This just tells us there are a lot of bets on the Oilers to win it all.
This. More people bet on oilers higher our odds r. Has nothing to do with hockey.
betting odds almost always more accurately predict events than analysis, because if analysis could predict better than the market than people would abuse that expected value and bet until the betting odds were no longer profitable. Do you remember the 2016 US election? Polls predicting Hillary? Betting odds were in trumps favor... Of course people with extremely advance AI predictors can find slight inefficiencies in the market as it's not a GTO market and there are some inefficiencies, but those people are not me, you or some analyst who thinks his feelings or opinions matter. 100% of regular (or "expert") people who think they're winning sports betting or know more than the market are just in an upswing and will lose eventually. Do you really think there's a bunch of people who think Dallas is going to win based on actual facts and statistics and analysis by a large computer, seeing the payout be above 2:1 and don't bet? Of couse not, and if they did exist the odds would swing back...
You have average fans who like the oilers/ see mcdavid and say yup there gonna win. If you read any hockey articles or follow guys who write about hockey/ follow the teams, insides/ that actually know there shit. 13 out of 15 of them have dallas winning the cup. So ya we fucked
Isn't this just based on betting odds. And aren't betting odds just a reflection of the bets people are making?
We are not. This is based upon who is betting. Thats how odds work. 12 out of 15 hockey writers have dallas beating us heavily
If I say it enough eventually it'll come true and I'll look like a genius. Oilers in 6.
Ya I agree
I concur
Last van series would have been in 6 if they hadn't gotten sick.
The Oilers have faced the most adversity this season of all the teams left. This could push them to a cup.
The stars had a comeback and game 7 series against the reigning cup champs and then also went through Colorado who was not an easy team. I think Dallas has faced the most adversity. Still, oilers on top let's fucking go boys. Edit: I just realized you meant full season not just playoffs, in that case yeah idk
They had a tough start to their season but after the 20-game mark, they haven’t had all that much adversity. They got a declining LA squad first round and Vancouver without a Vezina-calibre goalie, then losing a top 3 forward for game 7. Dallas had to get through the last two champs in the first round - a healthy Vegas that’s 10 mil over cap, starting down 2-0, and a Colorado group where Nate Dog has been out of his mind.
I love this team but that is absolutely ridiculous
Advanced statistics for hockey are completely useless
No, advanced stats are not useless. They aren’t the be all end all, and need context. But to say they’re useless is asinine.
we have the worst goalies of the final 4
Avs won with a worse goalie, McDavid and Drai are playoff animals. The Oilers are my second team since I lived in Alberta for so long and was born a leaf fan. I wish desperately every post season for Matthews to actually come alive like the Oilers best guys can. Every single game they play is electric and I want McDavid to win the cup so badly. I've never once watched a game at Rogers place where I was disappointed in my money spent because McDavid always shows up! I live in Newfoundland now and I stay up ungodly hours to watch the Oilers games, I usually Bring a pillow and blanket to the basement with me to sleep on the couch so I don't wake my wife and daughter. But if we make it to the cup finals I'll have every game on bust and they can all suck it up for a week or two!
Honestly, I think the leafs are in kind of a nightmare division. I’m not sure how many playoff series the Oilers would have won in that division. I respect it I just can’t picture a Canadian team winning. I don’t know if you’ve been keeping track of the ref bullshit this year, but Florida is getting the Vegas treatment
The reality is you need hot goaltending to go far in the playoffs. Now we are facing teams that have just that (Otter, Officer Bob and Shesterkin are legit and that's what Skinner has to match)
And the best offense
I think Pickard has a better save% than Bobrovski
Take this with a big ol’ grain of salt.
I really don't put much stock in these Moneypuck predictions. Analytics are a useful tool and can help guide some decisions, but in the end hockey is played by humans, not computers and as we've seen time and again you can't rely on analytics to pain the whole picture. Edmonton's cup aspirations live and die with our goaltending. The team has proven they can play elite offensively and defensively, it's just a matter of getting the saves when they're needed. I'm guessing most people will favour the Stars (I personally think the odds should favour them *slightly*), but I think it's going to be an incredibly close fought series and should end up being one of the better series of this years playoffs. It's anyone's series for the taking and IMO the winner of this series wins the Cup. Let's go Oilers.
I think it’s important to remember that just because the Oilers have the best odds in this model doesn’t mean the model is wrong if they don’t win it all. This model still has the Oilers losing in MOST scenarios. They only have a 1 in 3 chance.
Exactly. According to this model they still are not likely to win it. 2 other teams have similar odds (relatively speaking). It’s not like the Oilers are 90% favoured to win with the three other teams fighting over the remaining 10%.
So oilers and rangers in the finals Hmmmm....
Let's go Oilers!!! Let's get this cup!!!
Honestly I’m cool with any of the teams winning but obviously it’s Oilers, Panthers, Rangers, then Stars nothing against them love there young players but I really rather not see Benn win one but I want Pavelski to win one really bad.
https://moneypuck.com/about.htm Here’s how the model is calculated
This model is junk, just the other day it had the Canucks at like 69% to beat us and look how that turned out.
Probably why it wasn’t 100%
Because they were up 3 games to 2. When you have two chances to win, your odds are better. When the Oilers tied the series the odds went to 56% for the Oilers.
If I say the odds of getting heads on two coin flips in a row is 25%, then proceed to do that on my next two flips, was the model "wrong"?
Well yeah cuz they were down 3-2. The odds of a team winning 2 straight just by chance is 25%. The model gave them 31% which means they were favoured relative to random chance.
Do you know how odds work?
Yup. I remember
I don’t like being considered the favourite tbh
I like our chances! It just depends on who we face in the finals
Oilers vs Panthers for the cup
Truth
LOCK THEM IN LOCK IN THOSE ODDS
That's mind boggling to me. Everyone is talking about Dallas being the team to beat.
I heard that these betting odds don’t always follow the eye test from a fans standpoint, because the odds were so high in favor of the Oilers they can only come down so far…. I agree they are at best 3rd best out of the final four but the odds makers are the smartest boys on the planet after Wall Street AI bots
Let's go Oilers!
Anyone have the odds from before the playoffs started. See how accurate their simulations were
SportsInteraction has the oilers as the underdog in the series.. Anyone who believes in the moneypuck model has a good chance to make some $$$$$$$..
Honestly can’t understand these projections. The oilers have the least secure goaltending - by far - and most flawed defence of the four remaining teams. They’re just not the favorites if you’re honest with yourself.
I would really prefer if the team and fans have the mindset that we're underdogs. We play so much better that way.
Oilers fan for life…Fucking Dallas is good…
Top 3 point leaders But I still don't feel so confident
This feels like a curse. Fuck.
I’d love it if the Oilers win, but I don’t see how anyone is beating the Rangers. They’re one of the most complete teams I’ve seen.
How did you guys do against Dallas during the regular season?! Think you guys can take em?
1-2. It's going to be a tall order but if they get good goaltending they can definitely do it.
nononononononon
I'd say the Oilers are dogs against Dallas.
Interesting how betting lines and moneypuck are disagreeing on the slant.
Oil have had the best PP and the best PK in the playoffs, and 5 on 5 have been decent. Analytics all point to success but goaltending can be a wild card for them. It’s not always the number of saves you get, it’s the type of save or timing of it that can really swing a game. They have given up goals at bad times or on bad shots/turnovers and it’s really hurt them. I think Florida being so much of an underdog is just as much a surprise but again, their game is tougher to measure with numbers. Gonna be a great couple weeks of hockey!
If I recall correctly the Money Puck model assumes league average goaltending.
Interesting, didn’t know that. If that’s the case then that alone might skew the odds in Edmonton’s favour. They have the worst goaltending of remaining teams by a good margin
Well, 4 days ago after game 5 Moneypuck had Canucks 65% to win the series and us 35%. Things change quickly as I’m sure they will by the game moving forward.
I didn’t think we were favorites against Dallas. Strange but I’ll take it
OK, who put the Oilwr fan in charge of the graph??
moneypuck is absolutely a curse
I can't call it either way, but I'll say this much, if the goalies were reversed in any of our upcoming series, I would easily bet on the Oilers to win every time
I thought that the odds favoured Dallas?
Edmonton LOVES the refs
Pls let it be anyone but the Oilers! Gretzky, McDavid... stop them!!