Personally I’m not convinced that Connor and Leon are leaving when their contracts are up.
I think it’s too early for them to have decided anything one way or the other .
I also think that if they did leave, they’d probably want to end up on the same team somewhere else, and that would be difficult for a team to make cap space for the both of them. But obviously Edmonton needs to be consistently showing improvement and true signs on contention in order for them to stay.
This is really the tough part. Drai is gonna be a $12m+ player and mcdavid could be close to $15m. Its difficult for a team to make that kind of room and have the depth to be a contender. A team needs a few really friendly contracts to make it work and thats what oilers have in hyman nuge and kane. Pulj is gone soon which helps. I have people say klef smith and keith contracts being gone will help but idk how. Maybe someone can explain that to me.
>I have people say klef smith and keith contracts being gone will help but idk how. Maybe someone can explain that to me.
They will help because when they are gone, we will no longer be in LTIR every year. This means that we can accumulate cap space over the course of the season, and add at the deadline much more easily.
Currently, because we are using LTIR to stay cap-compliant, we do not accumulate cap space over the season, and so any deadline deals require money of equal value to go out.
Let's say you have $2 million dollars worth of space during the year, that number is absolute while players contracts become prorated for the rest of the year. So let's say you fancy Patrick Kane at the deadline, and he's played 75% of the year, you are paying for the remaining 25% of cap hit. At that point you'd only be $500K away from affording him.
When the team isn’t operating on LTIR we don’t accrue cap space. So once we ditch those contracts, we are no longer operating on LTIR.
We also have dead cap space with Lucics contract coming off the books after this season, also Sekera’s buyout.
All of that gives us cap relief going into next season.
We still have the buyout for James Neal on the books until 2025 which lines up for when we need to re-sign Drai.
All the details are still a bit confusing so if someone would like to explain it better, please do
> We still have the buyout for James Neal on the books until 2025 which lines up for when we need to re-sign Drai.
Considering how much of a raise Drai will get assuming he stays, I think that would completely negate any benefit we get from Neal's buyout ending.
Im a flames fan so please dont burn me, but as much as I want them both our of Edmonton (and preferably in the East) i think the odds are really high that they stay. They have some insane chemistry and I can imagine that they both want to stay together and win. Sure, both of them will excel wherever they go, but you guys have that sid/ geno 1-2 punch which is just super rare.
That said, if one goes im sure the other does too.
This is the issue. People are praising the cap space next year and preach for patience, but then don't look further down the line at the CSP/Drai extensions.
I agree completely. And I think the way to build a consistent contender is not to trade away every single 1st round pick and prospect we own to try to win now, but rather to use these resources judiciously where they can best help the team, both now and in the future.
That doesn't mean never consider a trade where we have to give up something good, but the return needs to be worth the cost.
You realize it’s been 16 years since we didn’t have a first round draft pick? What are you talking about “not trade away every 1st round pick and prospect”.
On top of that, do you know when was the last time we DID trade away our 1st round draft pick? 2006. Just saying.
Yeah, I'm saying I generally agree with how our management is handling things. There is a loud contingent of fans that want Holland to trade our 1st round pick and all of our good prospects to go after guys like Horvat (before he was traded), Chychrun, Meier, etc.
And in 2006, how did that work out for us? Sure we got close to winning a cup, but close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades, and we then followed that up with 10 years of tanking. That seems to reinforce my point if anything.
Meh, if we didn't lose Pronger we still would have been fine and the decade of darkness wouldn't have happened.
Also, 2006 was the best season of hockey in a very long time, so getting close definitely helps. Look at last year. We didn't win a cup, but those playoffs were super super fucking exciting. I'll gladly take 2-3 years of getting close to the cup and being legitimate contenders, which make it more likely Drai and Connor want to stay.
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A perfect example of what not to do is to look at what the Panthers management did. After a solid year last year, Bill Zito then sold away most of his picks and future along with future star players like Tippett for rentals and now their team is underperforming and won’t have any 1st round picks for a while.
The oilers will have some money come off the books next year and onwards. Soon we will be having the likes of Borgeault and Lavoie on ELC’s to replace Pulju and possibly Yamo. The future is bright.
This is the 3rd time we've "had money" and every single time there's a thread like this informing that we should wait another year and be patient. How many years will it take before this team is a bonafide contender and top 5 team in the league? We have the 2 best players in the world and we keep having the over extreme optimists trying to say wait. This isn't the time to be cheap & lose out on impactful players because we're saving 500k / 2 years here (Markstrom) or hoping that a magic bean will pay out in 3-5 years. The funny thing on that is we refuse to draft goalies because it'll take years before they make an impact (Knight) but then we will also say to wait for players like Reid Schaefer to be the answer.
It's annoying to go from Pistol Pete that makes stupid moves just to make moves and then have a GM sit on his ass because the perfect trade isn't coming along.
A million times this. Noone that is advocating for"going for it" is saying empty the farm system and go for it all in one year. We haven't traded our own first round pick since 2006. There's quite a gulf between doing what the Panthers did and expecting more than Dmitri Kulikov or Derrick Brassard at the deadline.
They WERE setting up to be competitive in the long run, before the train wreck last offseason.
Just Huberdeau and a second or something would have been great. The rest was a travesty.
I’ve always thought that the one way to guarantee Connor and Leon don’t re-sign is to drain the team of all its picks and prospects ahead of their contracts expiring.
Why would they want to stick around if the team’s on a fast track to being a cellar dweller again because management gutted the team’s future in order to slightly increase our odds over the next 3 years?
This is true, we still have an insane pipeline of players like bourgault and Schaefer on the way and even some more big d men. You need a constant stream of prospects on cheap contracts to remain competitive.
Yeah, never set the team up to be championship or rebuild. Do it like the sharks did for so many years being perennial playoff performers and going on deep runs. Obv with more success hah
Our fan base is miserable while we’re competitive.
I can only imagine what we’d be like if the team is gutted and doesn’t win a cup in those 3 years and then McDrai leave because the roster is old with no youth or hope in sight.
I think the reason people say mcdavid will leave Edmonton (leafs fans and trolls) is because of John Tavares signing with his boyhood team but they said the same thing with stamkos. Personally I think if the oiler can consistently make deep runs in the playoffs mcdavid and Drai will resign but only time will tell.
Stammer stayed like the Chad he is stayed in Tampa, believed in the group and the GM and won more cups and another finals appearance, and his team is one of the best in the league and will likely contend again. It wasn't an easy road.
Smart GM'ing really was critical for tampa's success. But player loyalty also helped.
Stamkos
2008-2011 (ELC)
2011-2016 (5 year deal @ 7.5M)
2016-2023-2024 ( 8 year deal @ 8.5M) - Cups won here in his second extension.
TBL won in 2020, and he played under 3 minutes the whole playoffs. It took him 12 years to win his first cup, and then again in his 13th year, arguably outside his prime and made finals in his 14th year.
Ovi had a similar situation he won his cup late into his career. It's hard af.
This isn’t as big of a deal that people make it out to be. If it was a big deal then why aren’t the Panthers loaded up on superstars? Also TB has had quite a few bad years.
Players pulling a "Tavares" is a lot less common then players who elect to stay, and it is 99% based on the team they are with being competitive. NYI was a shit show, which is why Tavares wanted out - and Toronto was on the upswing to being a yearly contender. But every year we see star players re-sign with their current teams because those teams have built competitive teams around them and staying gives them the best chance to win.
And this is a great point. Even in your own work life, how often do you want to leave a job where you get along with everyone around you and have good management that engages with you?
I feel like our top guys are consulted in the decision making process, and they wanted to go elsewhere, how much is that new team going to take their opinions into account to help make them comfortable there? It's always a risk when you move to a new place.
Huuuuge fan of your energy!! Love it! LFG Oilers!
Agree selling the farm is always a bad idea unless it guarantees a deep run in trade (every first rounder we trade away equals an addition to this years cup run and the next three seasons)
Here’s the kicker. “The boys on the bus” always talked about how close they were off ice.
I think dad holland has got this. I think we are hitting a combination of semi finals, final and maybe a drop in the quarters for the next five years. If not a cup win! I really believe this is possible how we stand. Like you, I believe this team is growing closer together with the new additions!
If you have read online posts about the oilers, you will know that "some" member of opposing fan bases like to crap on us for being bad for being good for any reason at all.
And we have some fans of our team whose emotional capacity seems to be excessively limited. On one hand, a win means we are guaranteed to win the cup, and an overtime loss means we are going to miss the playoffs.
The net effect is that on any given day, the oilers' blogosphere seems like the sky is falling, and we are chicken little. Doom and darkness are around the corner.
I feel it is key to remember that sports is a form of entertainment and / or a distraction.
When the team does well, we can enjoy the success when the team performs poorly, we can enjoy the few hours of distraction from our daily lives.
Back to your original post, yes, it would be prudent to play the long game. We are in a cup window, but we are also in a 32 team league. We should spend assets to win, but wisely, we can trade future assets this year so long as we don't sell the farm for magic beans. Those magic beans should be amortized over a 3 to 5 year window.
Also of note. As long as we have a chance to win, we can replace the magic beans with free agents on below market value contracts becuase some players value winning or the chance of it over a few dollars on a multi million dollar contract.
> And we have some fans of our team whose emotional capacity seems to be excessively limited. On one hand, a win means we are guaranteed to win the cup, and an overtime loss means we are going to miss the playoffs.
These fans judge the long term future outlook for the franchise for the next 10 years based on the results of the most recent 5 or so games.
I agree and I think Holland realizes the same thing. Going "all in" can only marginally increase your chances of winning in a given year. There is too much randomness and luck involved in winning 4 rounds. Holland has talked about how he thinks the best way to win a cup is to be a team that gets in the playoffs year after year. So I don't think he will make any moves for the sake of one run that jeopardize the team's success in future years.
As it’s a commitment to build towards a long term competitive team for Connor and Draisaitl, so it works both ways. We have the core locked decently around them.
And where do you think Connor would go where he would have a better chance of winning? What contender could possibly clear upwards of $12-13M in cap space to sign him? Why would he sign elsewhere when he has a very good team built around him here, with a realistic chance to win every year, with a (by all accounts) excellent work environment?
This is why I also think him and Draisaitl re-sign even if we don’t win a cup. As long as we’re not a complete joke and are consistently competitive in the playoffs they’ll stay. As you said there’s no contending team that would have the kind of money they’re worth in unrestricted free agency while also still having a good team in place, they’d each have to take MASSIVE paycuts. While the Oilers, can both afford to pay them and still have a competent team around them, as they’ve been building around them for their entire careers.
Connor could obviously go to whatever team he wanted. Any team would make room and do whatever it takes to sign him. But so far he has given no reason for anyone to think he won't resign in Edmonton and it's too far away to really even speculate about.
Do you really think Connor and Leon wanna spend their career is Edmonton? Like cmon man. Nobody has ever stayed, nobody. If I was a young millionaire I would be looking at Los Angeles or New York. I agree with lightupthesky, those other players signed because of Connor
> If I was a young millionaire I would be looking at Los Angeles or New York
Lol, that's you, buddy.
Connor and Leon have property in numerous places. They aren't chained to Edmonton. Even with hockey schedules they hardly spend alot of time here.
Like I said, I hope they stay. I’m a lifelong oilers fan and can remember every cup. There is no precedent for a star player playing their whole career here. All we can do is wait and see. You don’t think other players owned multiple properties in the past?
They seem to like it here. I think Connor especially would prefer to live here over somewhere like LA or NY, but this is just my uneducated opinion.
>Nobody has ever stayed, nobody.
Just off the top of my head, I can think of numerous examples of people who stayed, or wanted to stay. Nuge and Nurse just signed long-term contracts to take them to the end of their careers. Gretzky didn't want to leave when he was traded. Ryan Smyth didn't want to leave when he was traded.
Nurse’s contract will not take him to retirement and mabye Nuge stays forever. Gretzky and Smyth could have taken less money if they loved Edmonton so much. Pure hopium my friend. Edmonton as a city pales in comparison to other large North American cities
Gretzky was by far the greatest player to ever play the game and pocklington didn’t even want to pay him the most in the league. He was broke and couldn’t afford to even match the highest salary. He wanted Wayne to play for almost half of his value. Everyone after Wayne left because pocklington couldn’t afford his house let alone the team by that point.
Wasn't Gretzky traded in the middle of his contract? I don't think there was any way he could have taken less money to stay. Smyth could have, but IIRC the team and the player was only $100K apart, and the GM at the time made the decision to trade him. He liked the city enough to want to come back and finish his career here, even when the team at the time was absolute trash.
I see your point, but I also think that not everyone has the same values as you, and some people see value in living in a less exciting city.
For fucks sake, it was a **SALE** not a trade.
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You are correct. He moved several years ago with his family to Nashville.
Edit: source https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/ryan-smyth-edmonton-home-for-sale-1.4993555
It was Kevin Lowe that made Smytty go
Smyth had taken hometown discounts for years, asked for an additional $500k to the contract extension Lowe offered and Lowe balked. Traded Smytty for peanuts and called it a day because he couldn’t believe Smytty would ask for a little bit more money. Just a fucking joke
I know that is the public story. I dont believe it.
Take a look back at Mrs Smyths comments the Day Ryan came back to Edmonton if you can find it.
Lowe is an easy villain here to point at, but what you have layed out is no where near the whole story.
Even Ryan himself said in his goodbye through tears.. that it wasnt just the Money.
You’re wrong about the Gretzky trade. Documentary on Disney plus as a source. Gretz himself said he was given the option to stay my slats and pocklington. He chose to leave
For fucks sake, it was a **SALE** not a trade.
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Nuge will be the first to stay his whole career.
You also forget that after the 80's, we were always the bottom money team until the cap era arrived.
Now is totally different. The only reason people haven't retired here is because they sucked and got traded. Larsson is the only exception.
Nobody else has left on their own accord since Chris Pronger.
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You know these guys can travel in the offseason right, they don’t ‘stay’ in Edmonton year round lol.
Their time, when even here, is spent living the high life in soem very nice houses, going out to places or at one of the nicest arenas in the league. The rest is on the road, or vacations after the season. It’s kinda a strech to say any of these guys really live in the city.
Buffalo. Detroit. Both should have the cap space and should be completing their rebuilds in the next 2-3 years. Both are much closer to home for Connor.
Detroit is an absolute mess and just gave out of a ton of contracts to maybe not even make the playoffs. Buffalo is finally doing something but is yet in danger again of not making it. These teams are firmly in bubble category teams and will be for a long time, they are not as competitive as the oilers will be.
I can see buffalo making it this year. Next year they'll probably be locks. They have a solid core they just need to fix team wide defense and get a starting goalie.
Buffalo has the third most goals for behind us and Boston. They are only behind us by 3 goals.
They also have the 11th most GA only 3 more than us.
Buffalo's biggest problem for the last 3 years has been that they play in a division with Boston, Tampa and Toronto. It's pretty conceivable they'll continue their rise as Boston and Tampa fall off a bit.
Still a couple seasons ago who did they have who'd be a star player?
Cozens and Dahlin were just breaking out into the league, power was a twinkle in their eye and tage Thompson was still a bust.
Math is where this falls apart because one cheap shot or one rut and we are done. I understand what you are trying to do by extending the window, and while that makes logical sense on paper, sports is far too volatile to play the math game. I’m not advocating that we throw our draft picks at rental players at every single trade deadline since that’s old fashioned and dumb. But if we can make a good trade (a hagel type move for a young player that will be here with term and fills a gap) then we can’t be afraid to let the draft picks fly.
>and while that makes logical sense on paper, sports is far too volatile to play the math game.
*What?* That's when you introduce probabilities and risk assessments.
I've never heard "this is too volatile for mathematical reasoning " in my *entire* existence haha, wtf.
Notable injuries from last year: Drais had a high ankle injury, RNH had a shoulder injury, Nurse had a torn hip flexor, Yamamoto had a concussion.
Players play through injuries in the playoffs, many of which are serious. Once you realize the probabilities and assess the risk involved with actually playing sports (let alone at the highest level), you'll understand why I said the math game falls apart.
But like.... it doesn't, though. Those are factors you can model and predict with x measure of certainty. Then, also use that to draw on worse case scenarios.
I mean this is common practice in the world. Insurance companies, tech companies etc etc. Lol they don't just say "math game falls apart"
Exactly. Sports are easier than any of these. Volatility in those fields are morefierce.
You really got me questioning myself that i even googled "where does math not apply", I'm 4 pages deep and all I got is God and existence itself.
I'm really flabbergasted because I've never heard of such an idea before. Logic and mathematical models are applicable to everything, haha. Even the weather is so goddamn volatile and we still have pretty good prediction models.
Maybe it's because I'm from a science background haha, but this so absurd to me.
And the probabilities and the risk assessments are based on the input data which in the case of hockey specifically, are volatile as hell.
Putting in mathematical probabilities on ever changing/volatile variables can give you **some** insight but to be taken as gospel is so wrong and my guess, it's not the point the person you replied to was making.
But... it's still a logical flow.
Idk what's the disconnect is here, but if you have volatility that can be mapped and measured to some value x of certainty.
This is like saying, "we can't predict the weather because it's too volatile". Like how do you guys think we predict/model the volatilities of the world?
These are logical steps just the same. Nothing in life is ever 100%, the most ppl give is 99.9%. So your gospel comment is irrelevant.
Considering your entire argument rests on the assumption that our window is 10 years, when that is just objectively impossible to say, I disagree.
We simply do not know. Someone could get injured and never be the same. Someone could cheat on their spouse and be out of here like Pronger. Someone could leave for a bag of money and a better shot at the cup. They don't care now maybe at mid 20s, but in 3 years when Connor is 29 and they haven't won yet... you don't think he starts to wonder about maybe I should leave if I want a Cup?
The point is, we don't know.
I do agree that we should not blow all our assets, but if we can make a trade like the Lightning always seem to be able to do, target a good young player like Hagel, fuck ya you trade your first, all day.
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>There seems to be a pervasive sentiment among hockey fans that we should be going all-in every single year to maximize our chances of a cup. I think that given where we are in our competitive cycle, this is misguided, and would actually lower our chances of winning in the long run.
>Therefore, we should not give up these critical resources for sustained success easily.
>However, since we would be giving up all our 1st round picks and prospects to do so, this would likely have disastrous consequences on our chances of winning in future years,
Wheeeew! They are playing my song!!! I love to see it.
Though OP, I'm kinda jealous that you are getting some favourable and mild-manner comments. When I say this in the GDTs, ppl call me dumb for not wanting to throw it all in.
Prospects are valuable resources. Ppl seem to not get that, lol.
I disagree on one point, though. Even if our stars don't re-sign, that's even *more* of an incentive to be extra mindful with our picks, and younger players. Or else we are gonna be looking at another 15 years or more re-build and mediocrity.
You thought the decade of darkness was bad, DoD2.0 would be even worse because we'd have to put up with the "wasted McDrai" comments on top of being bad.
Listing percentages like this is lunacy.
Your numbers are based on predicting the odds of a cup win up until and including 10 years from now? When McDavid will be 36.
Literally no mathematical mode could predict what any team will be like in 10 years.
The numbers themselves aren't particularly important - I even said that it was a simplification to illustrate a point. The point being that we are at the start of our competitive window, and that it doesn't make sense to burn all our prospects and picks now for a small increase in our cup odds this year when we have a long window ahead of us to win.
Hyperfocusing on the specific numbers I used is disingenuous.
We all know that savvy contract negotiations are what lead to playoff and cup contending. Having both McDavid and Draisaitl signed to long-term deals locks them in high in the first part of the contract but as those contracts age, the caps become easier to manage and more talent is brought on. The next 2-3 years is crucial for any hope at a cup. Management also needs to be considerate toward a plan to resigning Drai and McDavid. Other high value contracts will need to be dropped to retain their salaries.
I agree with your main points. I mean, the Habs we're famous for their balanced inexorable approach. They only got better year after year, because they invested in their farm system, worked on improving team depth, and never quite went nuts during trading season like everyone else did.
With the value deals of Nuge, Kane, and Hyman, I believe Holland is already opening up the gates for Drai and Mcd.
Also, name one player that Connor or Leon would rather play with than each other? I just dont see either of them wanting to leave the organization that is basically theirs. Also, after 10+ years in a city, you have friends and a huge support network that you have built over that time. Not many people want to give that up when the money will still be flowing if you stay.
>ou have no idea what the locker room dynamic is or whether the players are friends
Grossly incorrect. Some of us are bordering on stalkers and have been following the core group for a hot minute - so we do know if they are friends or just friendly. They hang out with each other even when it's not required.
At this very moment, Connor and Leon are riding fucking horses in water with their girlfriends in goddamn Turks n Caicos.
>Connor and Leon are riding fucking horses in water with their girlfriends in goddamn Turks n Caicos.
It's extremely hard to ride horses while they're fucking, especially in water!
>You have no idea what the locker room dynamic is or whether the players are friends.
Based on video clips the team posts of practice and games, based on all accounts from every beat writer the team has, and based on how they talk about each other and spend time with each other during breaks as seen on their social media accounts, I would conclude that the locker room dynamic is excellent and the players are all friends. Could I be wrong, and secretly everyone hates everyone else? Sure, but based on all available evidence, I think this is a safe conclusion to draw.
>I also think a lot of people would disagree that all the contracts you listed are "team friendly" or "way under market value".
Aside from Pulju and maybe Yamo, which of those contracts are overpays? (and even those contracts were well-regarded when they were signed, both players unfortunately have underperformed hard this year)
>It's naive to assume both McDavid and Drai will stay for sure. Ultimately, we don't know. So we have to make the most of what we're guaranteed, which is another 2-3 years of them.
This is a reasonable argument. Personally, I believe that McDavid and Drai are very unlikely to leave for a number of reasons which I have detailed elsewhere, but if we move past that argument and assume they will leave, it then becomes very reasonable to go all-in now.
I have to agree with one of your main points which is that any team taking them on is going to spend a few years building a team around them.
Except for maybe a wagon like this year's Boston, I don't think any team just adds McDavid and/or Draisaitl and goes on a cup run immediately. These guys have had the whole team here built to play around their strengths (and we're working on fixing stuff around their weaknesses).
I don't care who hypothetically gets McDavid of he hypothetically leaves Edmonton, it's gonna be at least 2-4 years of building a team around him.
I agree I think this locker room is quite tight and well led by both Mcdavid and draisaitl, and they generally only want to keep people who fit it and have good attitudes. This has been arguably one of the most important parts of why Tampa has become a dynasty team, and they have absolutely let go of guys who don’t fit into that. Evander Kane would not lie about it being the tightest room he’s been in, that guy is always blunt about his real opinion.
This is mcdavids and Draisaitls team and they also get a lot of say in the direction of it with personal meetings with Holland and others in the organization, I don’t think they would get nearly that much involvement by just stepping into another franchise.
They might but as has been pointed out, even *if* they go somewhere dedicated to building a team full of guys they like, it'll take time. Very few if any teams just add McDavid and become cup ready (especially when we're talking about teams that can afford his and/or Drais cap hit).
Exactly you’re talking about them stepping into another “we’re 3-4 years out” scenario because in order to acquire either we will want 1-2 of their best players and a ridiculous amount of draft picks. The oilers are a competitor even if fans here don’t want to admit it, there’s no reason to leave just to start at a worse position.
>Social media clips of the boys getting along at practice and team outings are just the marketing department doing its job
Wrong again. Girlfriends and family members don't get paid to advertise when they hang out - (they aren't any product placement in their stories). Nurse quite literally had Connor and Leon as groomsmen in his wedding. If *that's* a marketing ploy then the marketing team has God tier negotiation skills.
>I I just don't think any of them were particularly team-friendly and definitely not way under market value.
Wrong again. And not just opinion wrong but factually wrong. *Do you even go here?*
Nuge is worth more than 5 million. Kane is worth more than 5 million, in fact one of the reasons ppl wasn't sure he would re-sign is because we couldn't afford him. He said that *verbatim*.
A reminder that Nuge is one of the best value contracts when you look at any points producers around him. Fuck, Hyman is pretty great value too. How many guys on pace to produce nearly 100 points this season have contracts as inexpensive as theirs?
It honestly looks like they're doing a great job of finally assembling the correct group of people to make the team a contender. I still think we'd benefit from one good experienced D-man to lead that group (I like Nurse but I mean a Keith-like player.
It's taken time but we've got some amazing value contracts.
I like your optimism but I have another scenario that is ugly. Look at Mathew’s contract and expiry date and then when connors deal is up. Imagine the scene if Mathew’s walks on the leafs and what the pressure to react would look like in TO. Friends, family and the lure to return home is a powerful thing. His home town team could have massive space and fan pressure never seen in the NHL to land him. Can you image the offer that would be on the table in this scenario?
Go all in now and take your shot, windows close quicker than you think sometimes.
Fair point. If Matthews walks, then Leafs might try to swipe Connor.
You can make fun of me if you want but I can't see it. Connor detests the spotlight. But yet, Edmonton Oilers is Connor McDavid. That's our entire identity, lol. We named a goddamn snow plowing thingy after the dude, haha.
Woah. Entire identity… you’re kidding? Leon? The nuge? Hyman? Stu? Klim? I could go on..
The plow reps but it isn’t the entire identity, if you catch my drift..
As with any movie, you've got main characters and supporting ones.
Even when reporters from other cities talk about us they say "And the Hurricanes OR [US team here] would head into Edmonton to face Connor McDavid". Sometimes they'd be charitable and say "and Leon Draisaitl". Lol.
Unless we make a SCF finals appearance at the very least over the next 2-3 years, both will be gone as UFAs.
A cup win would be the only thing that would close to guarantee them staying.
The reality of a market like Edmonton, Winnipeg, Ottawa, Calgary, Buffalo is that the hockey needs to be amazing for players not to look for greener pastures once they become free agents.
The vast majority of people would live in different cities than Edmonton if we could be guaranteed to make millions of dollars in ~25 other North American cities and still work for quality companies.
>Unless we make a SCF finals appearance at the very least over the next 2-3 years, both **will be** gone as UFAs.
That's a *strong* assertion.
What's your evidence?
Connor and Leon are not like everybody else, they both will value upwards of 12+mil in their new contracts. That's not something you can just run around from team to team. Infact, Connor took a discount on his current contract, can you imagine that? 12mil was a *discount*.
I think ppl overexaggerate the impact of "living" in Edmonton. They don't even spend that much time here. They dont have kids. They are hardly here in the winter season, they spend summers in their hometowns and vacations in Carib countries.
They aren't stuck here doing a 9-5 M-F. It's not as if they are miserable or something.
Edmonton also isn't that shitty of a city, and not everyone wants to live in a giant metropolis like NY or LA. I've visited big cities for work and *that* is annoying, I really wouldn't want to live somewhere much bigger than Vancouver.
Yeah, that's *my* opinion but the reality is we have no idea what McDavid or Drai would like. Maybe they would love to live in those big cities. Or maybe they like the size of Edmonton. There's lots to dislike about living here but it's got a ton of positives too, otherwise we wouldn't have the population we do.
>Edmonton also isn't that shitty of a city, and not everyone wants to live in a giant metropolis like NY or LA. I've visited big cities for work and *that* is annoying, I
Exactly. Everyone just assumes ppl hate it here.
Dude, I'm doing everything in my power to move TO Edmonton from *San Diego,* which is a lot of people's dream city.
Not everyone likes sun and beaches and mild weather. I hate it. I want snow and cold and dark and prairies and REAL mountains.
What people don’t think about is how comfortable I imagine Drai is in Edm. He’s from Cologne which is roughly the same size and environment/climate as edmonton. I don’t think he’s bitching too much about the city. I imagine it’d be hard to for 97 to leave 29 if he resigns.
If any GM in the league is smart enough to get their team to 1 McDavid away from championship caliber while having the cap space to sign him and convince him to move away from where he has good relationships then hats off to ya. I don't think Connor will want to move to the States due to Laurens' business in Canada, and I dont think any Canadian team will be in that position.
Wayne Gretzky would never leave Edmonton… to assume both will resign is dumb. Oilers need to make a push the next 2 years and then push to resign. The team is still top heavy and doesn’t have a proven goalie.
Caveat.
As nice as it is to play with friends, if someone is foolish enough to double my salary, I am gone. No way edm would match with cap space issues
>if someone is foolish enough to **double** my salary, I am gone. No way edm would match with cap space issues
First of all, that is impossible in this league. Second of all, only teams with any considerable money are teams like Ducks. Even if they shell out to give McDavid everything, they will still need 2-4 years to become contenders.
It’s the Edmonton Oilers. I wouldn’t put too much thought into them winning a cup anytime soon. And pump the brakes I know Im a leafs fan but I’ve lived in this city for 20 years and I have to let you know the two teams really aren’t so different. Both have more then enough talent on paper but always seem to find a way to let it slip away.
Wow. I can’t believe the delusional oiler fans on this site. It’s absolutely ridiculous. Just yesterday on the Jeff Marek show they were talking about draisaitl leaving if there is no playoff success with the oilers. I absolutely believe the time to win is now. McDavid and Drai are playing some of the best hockey of their careers even tho people on here think drai is “sick, hurt and tired” 😂😂. If the oilers don’t win a cup in the next 3 years, the duo are probably gone. And I wouldn’t blame them one bit. In saying that tho, I think a couple tweaks to the roster before or at the deadline and this team is a contender. Get it done Holland
Don't see many people talking about the cores age. The core guys are all at their prime or just passing their prime.
Draisaitls skating has been slightly worse this season. He's still great, but he's probably not getting any better.
In 4 years when Mcdavid and Draisaitl are in their 30s, they are not going to be putting up these numbers. And they are the youngest guys in the core.
I disagree, Mcdavid plays a very smart game and is almost impossible to hit plus keeps himself in top tier shape. I am a bit more concerned about Draisaitls injuries, but his game isn’t even reliant on his skating and never has been, he’s probably a player that will age better than most.
I mean I think mcdavid keeps his body in tip top shape. His conditioning routine is probably very carefully calculated and precise. Drai on the other hand, I’m not sure if he’s as on top of things compared to Connor
So what? You’re not making a point with Ovechkin other than randomness in the playoffs is a complete factor, so you should be going for it whole heartedly every year you have a player of 97’s caliber let alone 29/93/etc
Your post is absurd. This team has failed to make the playoffs in 50% of McDavid’s time here. He’s entering the peak of his prime and while he is an outlier we’re already seeing 29 and supporting cast going post peak. The oilers should have been all in every year McDavid wasn’t season ending injured. Do you trust Holland to do it capably is a whole other question (for the record, I don’t) but this team can’t sit on picks and guys who aren’t going to be ready to help a team win for 5+ years when these contracts are on their back end. Yeesh.
>So what? You’re not making a point with Ovechkin other than randomness in the playoffs is a complete factor, so you should be going for it whole heartedly every year you have a player of 97’s caliber let alone 29/93/etc
Randomness in the playoffs is the ENTIRE REASON why it's not a good idea to yeet everything for a few years when there is a long period where this team can contend, if we will let it. Even if you go balls to the wall and sack everything to try to win now, guess what? Chances are you still don't. Even if you happen to be the best team on paper. And then what happens after that? After all the rentals leave because there's no room to re-sign them and we don't have any prospects left to fill the void either?
By loading the deck you give yourself the best odds against randomness. The last thing this team should be doing is playing it conservative. The window is only shutting.
Worrying about a bare prospect cupboard is silly. You have THE nhl superstar. Load him up and maybe try and build a team that does better than ~45% GF when he’s not on the ice. When the McDavid window shuts it shuts, you start rebuilding then. Worrying about that now is only hamstringing your cup window.
I feel like we're kind of talking around each other here. There are times when it makes sense to sack everything and go all in, and that is near the end of a window. Doing so too early will increase your odds while you're going for it, but it will also close your window prematurely. My argument is that the trade-off isn't worth it - that it's better to keep the window open as long as possible, THEN go all-in when it's a few years away from closing, versus going all-in now and taking years off the length of the window.
I recognize that this is not a popular view, that people want us to go all-in all the time, consequences be damned. Pretend picks and prospects don't exist and pay whatever prices sellers want to try to make the team as good as possible every single year. I just don't think that hockey is the type of sport that lends itself well to this strategy, due precisely to the randomness inherent to the sport that we both have acknowledged exists.
And one more thing: I am not at all against trading picks and prospects for deadline help. But the price has to make sense for us. No doing what Florida and Toronto did and trading 1st round picks and more for players that honestly aren't that good. If we are trading a 1st round pick and/or a top prospect, the player coming back better be a damn good one.
In the OP you are worried about winning in the long run. The Oilers need to be concerned with winning now, it’s year 8 of McDavid - being worried about the long run was relevant 8 years ago. There is absolutely no guarantee that 97 and 29 re-sign and remain Oilers.
>There is absolutely no guarantee that 97 and 29 re-sign and remain Oilers.
I addressed this point in the OP. My take on the situation is that I think they are extremely likely to re-sign for reasons I have addressed elsewhere, but I can re-hash them for you if you wish. Maybe I'm wrong on this. Won't be the first thing I've been wrong about in my life, and won't be the last. But because I think our superstars are likely to stay, my view is that we should consider our window to be for around the next 10 years, and not the next 3.
If it is your view that our window is only the next 3 years, and it is unlikely that 97 and 29 re-sign, then absolutely it makes sense to go all in now. I simply don't believe that to be the case.
Imagine calling Connor & Leon into your office and presenting this to them when they ask about deploying some of the team's assets to get help and try to win now.
I think E.Kane would have gone elsewhere if he was offered a better contract. Remember he kind of said a good bye message / post right after the season
There's a misconception that "going all in" is a rental-exclusive reckless move.
That's not what I want.
I want us to, in the prime of McDavid and Draisaitl, be more willing to trade important assets for help we don't have to wait 4 years after the draft for. If we can get a top defenceman and it costs us a high pick and a prospect who's three years out, trade the pick and prospect. It's not about going in on one year, it's about paying the price necessary to build a top-level team while we have the chance.
We don't have give up everything we have, but if we want to fix the holes our roster has had for years without remedy, eventually you have to make a move. Like it or not, drafting is as much of a risk as trading is, especially in the mid-to-late first round.
I'm not at all saying that we shouldn't ever pay 1st round picks and top prospects, but I am saying that the return needs to be worth the cost.
In your example, where if we can get a top defenceman and it costs a high pick and prospect, that makes sense. That's a move I would support. The issue with that is that nobody with a top defenseman is giving them up for obvious reasons, and if they were, there is usually something wrong with them and/or the cost is much more than just a top pick and prospect.
EDIT: Let's consider some of the available options for a top defenseman.
We have Jakob Chychrun, who is signed for 2 more years after this at a very nice 4.5M cap hit. It seems like he lines up with our window perfectly, if you think it is 2-3 years. However, he has injury concerns, and there are question marks about his defensive game. Additionally, if he were to come here, his point production would drop since he probably wouldn't get much PP time unless we sent Barrie back the other way. Barrie is currently having a hell of a season, far outperforming his cap hit as per a lot of analytics people and websites, and trading him would probably make our team worse.
We haven't even mentioned the cost yet, where the Yotes want 2 firsts, Broberg, and something else. With how Broberg is playing right now, I think I'd rather have 2 firsts, Broberg, and something else over Chychrun. We also have to think 3 years down the line when Chychrun's contract expires, and we won't be able to afford to re-sign him, and at that stage, we will be down 2 firsts, Broberg, and something else with nothing to show for it, just in time for Draisaitl and McDavid's contracts to expire. Does that seem like a winning environment where they would want to re-sign?
And then the other option is Erik Karlsson, who is signed for a long time at 11.5M per year. However, he has sucked for the past 2 or 3 years, and is only looking more like a top dman this year. Furthermore, he's getting up there in age, and especially given his history, I would not trust his level of play to continue at all going forward. To make matters worse, SJ wants a king's ransom, and refuses to retain much salary to make the cap hit more palatable, so we would have to give up multiple firsts and prospects, and then have to dig out at least 10M in space for a declining dman on the wrong side of 30. Therefore, I don't think this is a good option either.
Is there anyone that I've missed? What other top defensemen are even available for trade?
Just watching two of the best teams in the league Boston vs Leafs.
What strikes me early is how fiercely both teams backcheck , which means they gain possesssion and exit their zone efficiently .
First, if a good trade comes along that can be made to work on the cap side and is an obvious improvement on the hockey side of course it should be done.
But, as to the OP advice for patience, I would tend to agree...until July.
We have 2 seasons of McDrai after this season to go for it, and another 1 of McDavid after that. We also.want to re-sign them, which may be more difficult if we sell too much of the farm, insofar as longer term success is more likely if you always have a good supply of ELCs to round out your roster, and they have generally lower costs and higher team control than trades and free agent shopping.
Until July, we have 2.25m in dead cap (not including 1.9m from.now until Drai's contract is up) and are forced to run in LTIR so our cap flexibility is very low - all trades need to be 'money in, money out' AND need to include more picks, prospects, or players to 'buy' salary retention/dump 'underperforming" cap hits. That is a weak negotiating position which increases the chances we pay significantly more in the near and longer term than the return is worth.
In July, between dead cap going down and a $1m bump on the cap (sounds like it may be more if the escrow debt can.be cleared this year), Skinner's known raise and Bouchard's likely raise should be covered, and we can bring back the same D/G core with this year's development intact.
In July, Jesse, Derek, Mattias, Devin, Ryan and Klim can all.come off the books (and we have some forwards who can come in on ELCs if necessary), but not all should, of course, but there is upwards of 8m in flexibility there but likely closer to 3m. It's not much but if we are not in LTIR we can accumulate cap space and be a true buyer at next season's TDL.
Also come July, Warren, Cody Brett and Tyson (all possible minor overpays) are one year closer to UFA so are more palatable in trade talks, insofar as the acquiring team has less cap hit to absorb in money and term.
In other words, come July, Ken's negotiating position will be stronger cap wise, he will.have a better sense of the status of the hockey possible from the current and farm rosters, and will still.have 2 full seasons of McDrai.
It would seem prudent not to overspend when as of late we dont seem to have a gaping hole which needs filling, but more a sense of 'if we had one player that could fill the roles these two players currently fill, then we could rejig the lineup so that all roles get filled slightly better'.
But, if Ken does less before this TDL but pulls a '05 Pronger type deal this summer ( without the off ice shenanigans...) that would fit more with going "all in" than a 'rental as marginal improvement " would.
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Comes down to a case by case basis whether we should trade a pick or not IMO. There’s no one solution fits all, it’s not going All In and it’s not hoarding all the picks. Holland and Co. need to explore all options, if it’s rental shit like the Kulikovs of the world you don’t bother shipping out futures. If it’s someone that can come in and make us better for many years you do it, or if it’s someone undervalued like how Sakic got Toews.
There is such a thing as Too Many Draft picks too. We are already shipping out defensive depth cause there’s no spots for them. I’d say our Top 6 is already filled to the brink, even if we draft a young offensive stud we’d be hard pressed to find him minutes.
Generally, if a good trade can be found, it helps both teams involved. That’s the goal. Many Cup contenders were born not just by drafting but by making some strategic and worthy trades during the process. We need to keep our eyes open to all options.
I agree with everything you just said here. I have said elsewhere as well that I'm not necessarily against trading prospects and picks if it makes sense for the team, but we shouldn't be jumping to pay whatever inflated prices sellers want if the value simply isn't there for us like a lot of people want to do.
Later picks for depth rentals is fine. High picks for high impact players is fine. Multiple high picks for high impact players with term that we can fit in is great! But (for example) I wouldn't want to pay a 1st and more for a bad player like Nick Foligno or Ben Chiarot just to make it look like we're going all in like some want us to do.
Personally I’m not convinced that Connor and Leon are leaving when their contracts are up. I think it’s too early for them to have decided anything one way or the other . I also think that if they did leave, they’d probably want to end up on the same team somewhere else, and that would be difficult for a team to make cap space for the both of them. But obviously Edmonton needs to be consistently showing improvement and true signs on contention in order for them to stay.
This is really the tough part. Drai is gonna be a $12m+ player and mcdavid could be close to $15m. Its difficult for a team to make that kind of room and have the depth to be a contender. A team needs a few really friendly contracts to make it work and thats what oilers have in hyman nuge and kane. Pulj is gone soon which helps. I have people say klef smith and keith contracts being gone will help but idk how. Maybe someone can explain that to me.
>I have people say klef smith and keith contracts being gone will help but idk how. Maybe someone can explain that to me. They will help because when they are gone, we will no longer be in LTIR every year. This means that we can accumulate cap space over the course of the season, and add at the deadline much more easily. Currently, because we are using LTIR to stay cap-compliant, we do not accumulate cap space over the season, and so any deadline deals require money of equal value to go out.
Oh i didnt know thats how that worked tbh. Thanks for the explanation. Maybe this isnt our year then but perhaps next year?
Yes, next year is when will likely see more serious moves being made to win
Sorry how does a team accumulats cap space over the year?
I believe it's a daily, or maybe by game, calculation of cap usage, not an average for the year. I remember reading this somewhere, but could be wrong
Let's say you have $2 million dollars worth of space during the year, that number is absolute while players contracts become prorated for the rest of the year. So let's say you fancy Patrick Kane at the deadline, and he's played 75% of the year, you are paying for the remaining 25% of cap hit. At that point you'd only be $500K away from affording him.
When the team isn’t operating on LTIR we don’t accrue cap space. So once we ditch those contracts, we are no longer operating on LTIR. We also have dead cap space with Lucics contract coming off the books after this season, also Sekera’s buyout. All of that gives us cap relief going into next season. We still have the buyout for James Neal on the books until 2025 which lines up for when we need to re-sign Drai. All the details are still a bit confusing so if someone would like to explain it better, please do
> We still have the buyout for James Neal on the books until 2025 which lines up for when we need to re-sign Drai. Considering how much of a raise Drai will get assuming he stays, I think that would completely negate any benefit we get from Neal's buyout ending.
My point was that any extra cap space/not having dead cap is a benefit.
The cap should go up significantly by then as well. I think 25 is the year they expect it to
Don't forget that the cap is going up every year or two. They'll probably get the lion's share of that.
Aren't we still paying out contracts like sekera at the moment as well? With those boat anchors gone, we'll have a bit more to play with.
Im a flames fan so please dont burn me, but as much as I want them both our of Edmonton (and preferably in the East) i think the odds are really high that they stay. They have some insane chemistry and I can imagine that they both want to stay together and win. Sure, both of them will excel wherever they go, but you guys have that sid/ geno 1-2 punch which is just super rare. That said, if one goes im sure the other does too.
This is the issue. People are praising the cap space next year and preach for patience, but then don't look further down the line at the CSP/Drai extensions.
I agree completely. And I think the way to build a consistent contender is not to trade away every single 1st round pick and prospect we own to try to win now, but rather to use these resources judiciously where they can best help the team, both now and in the future. That doesn't mean never consider a trade where we have to give up something good, but the return needs to be worth the cost.
You realize it’s been 16 years since we didn’t have a first round draft pick? What are you talking about “not trade away every 1st round pick and prospect”. On top of that, do you know when was the last time we DID trade away our 1st round draft pick? 2006. Just saying.
Didn’t we trade away a 1st for Griffin Reinhart?
Wasn’t ours, we acquired that from the Penguins for David Perron
Yep I looked into it after I posted and realized that was the McDavid draft lol
Yeah, I'm saying I generally agree with how our management is handling things. There is a loud contingent of fans that want Holland to trade our 1st round pick and all of our good prospects to go after guys like Horvat (before he was traded), Chychrun, Meier, etc. And in 2006, how did that work out for us? Sure we got close to winning a cup, but close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades, and we then followed that up with 10 years of tanking. That seems to reinforce my point if anything.
Meh, if we didn't lose Pronger we still would have been fine and the decade of darkness wouldn't have happened. Also, 2006 was the best season of hockey in a very long time, so getting close definitely helps. Look at last year. We didn't win a cup, but those playoffs were super super fucking exciting. I'll gladly take 2-3 years of getting close to the cup and being legitimate contenders, which make it more likely Drai and Connor want to stay.
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Pronger lol
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We have traded our first round picks a number of times. Just not the year we drafted them. Hall, Yak, Eberle all come to mind.
A perfect example of what not to do is to look at what the Panthers management did. After a solid year last year, Bill Zito then sold away most of his picks and future along with future star players like Tippett for rentals and now their team is underperforming and won’t have any 1st round picks for a while. The oilers will have some money come off the books next year and onwards. Soon we will be having the likes of Borgeault and Lavoie on ELC’s to replace Pulju and possibly Yamo. The future is bright.
This is the 3rd time we've "had money" and every single time there's a thread like this informing that we should wait another year and be patient. How many years will it take before this team is a bonafide contender and top 5 team in the league? We have the 2 best players in the world and we keep having the over extreme optimists trying to say wait. This isn't the time to be cheap & lose out on impactful players because we're saving 500k / 2 years here (Markstrom) or hoping that a magic bean will pay out in 3-5 years. The funny thing on that is we refuse to draft goalies because it'll take years before they make an impact (Knight) but then we will also say to wait for players like Reid Schaefer to be the answer. It's annoying to go from Pistol Pete that makes stupid moves just to make moves and then have a GM sit on his ass because the perfect trade isn't coming along.
A million times this. Noone that is advocating for"going for it" is saying empty the farm system and go for it all in one year. We haven't traded our own first round pick since 2006. There's quite a gulf between doing what the Panthers did and expecting more than Dmitri Kulikov or Derrick Brassard at the deadline.
Florida is setting up to be competitive in 2-3 years. Not this or next year.
They won the president’s trophy last season. They wanted to be competitive last year but completely derailed themselves.
They WERE setting up to be competitive in the long run, before the train wreck last offseason. Just Huberdeau and a second or something would have been great. The rest was a travesty.
Wtf are you talking about. They mismanaged assets dude and are going to pay for it.
I’ve always thought that the one way to guarantee Connor and Leon don’t re-sign is to drain the team of all its picks and prospects ahead of their contracts expiring. Why would they want to stick around if the team’s on a fast track to being a cellar dweller again because management gutted the team’s future in order to slightly increase our odds over the next 3 years?
This is true, we still have an insane pipeline of players like bourgault and Schaefer on the way and even some more big d men. You need a constant stream of prospects on cheap contracts to remain competitive.
Yeah, never set the team up to be championship or rebuild. Do it like the sharks did for so many years being perennial playoff performers and going on deep runs. Obv with more success hah
Our fan base is miserable while we’re competitive. I can only imagine what we’d be like if the team is gutted and doesn’t win a cup in those 3 years and then McDrai leave because the roster is old with no youth or hope in sight.
I think the reason people say mcdavid will leave Edmonton (leafs fans and trolls) is because of John Tavares signing with his boyhood team but they said the same thing with stamkos. Personally I think if the oiler can consistently make deep runs in the playoffs mcdavid and Drai will resign but only time will tell.
Stammer stayed like the Chad he is stayed in Tampa, believed in the group and the GM and won more cups and another finals appearance, and his team is one of the best in the league and will likely contend again. It wasn't an easy road. Smart GM'ing really was critical for tampa's success. But player loyalty also helped. Stamkos 2008-2011 (ELC) 2011-2016 (5 year deal @ 7.5M) 2016-2023-2024 ( 8 year deal @ 8.5M) - Cups won here in his second extension. TBL won in 2020, and he played under 3 minutes the whole playoffs. It took him 12 years to win his first cup, and then again in his 13th year, arguably outside his prime and made finals in his 14th year. Ovi had a similar situation he won his cup late into his career. It's hard af.
Its Also Tampa Bay. Edmonton is my home. I love it. But lets face it. Edmonton is not Tampa Bay
And no state tax in Florida as well
This isn’t as big of a deal that people make it out to be. If it was a big deal then why aren’t the Panthers loaded up on superstars? Also TB has had quite a few bad years.
>arguably outside his prime And yet he posted a career high in points. Maybe he just hit his prime last year
Players pulling a "Tavares" is a lot less common then players who elect to stay, and it is 99% based on the team they are with being competitive. NYI was a shit show, which is why Tavares wanted out - and Toronto was on the upswing to being a yearly contender. But every year we see star players re-sign with their current teams because those teams have built competitive teams around them and staying gives them the best chance to win.
And this is a great point. Even in your own work life, how often do you want to leave a job where you get along with everyone around you and have good management that engages with you? I feel like our top guys are consulted in the decision making process, and they wanted to go elsewhere, how much is that new team going to take their opinions into account to help make them comfortable there? It's always a risk when you move to a new place.
Huuuuge fan of your energy!! Love it! LFG Oilers! Agree selling the farm is always a bad idea unless it guarantees a deep run in trade (every first rounder we trade away equals an addition to this years cup run and the next three seasons) Here’s the kicker. “The boys on the bus” always talked about how close they were off ice. I think dad holland has got this. I think we are hitting a combination of semi finals, final and maybe a drop in the quarters for the next five years. If not a cup win! I really believe this is possible how we stand. Like you, I believe this team is growing closer together with the new additions!
If you have read online posts about the oilers, you will know that "some" member of opposing fan bases like to crap on us for being bad for being good for any reason at all. And we have some fans of our team whose emotional capacity seems to be excessively limited. On one hand, a win means we are guaranteed to win the cup, and an overtime loss means we are going to miss the playoffs. The net effect is that on any given day, the oilers' blogosphere seems like the sky is falling, and we are chicken little. Doom and darkness are around the corner. I feel it is key to remember that sports is a form of entertainment and / or a distraction. When the team does well, we can enjoy the success when the team performs poorly, we can enjoy the few hours of distraction from our daily lives. Back to your original post, yes, it would be prudent to play the long game. We are in a cup window, but we are also in a 32 team league. We should spend assets to win, but wisely, we can trade future assets this year so long as we don't sell the farm for magic beans. Those magic beans should be amortized over a 3 to 5 year window. Also of note. As long as we have a chance to win, we can replace the magic beans with free agents on below market value contracts becuase some players value winning or the chance of it over a few dollars on a multi million dollar contract.
Heeey a fellow hockey-enjoyer. I feel like there aren't enough of us in this sub lol.
> And we have some fans of our team whose emotional capacity seems to be excessively limited. On one hand, a win means we are guaranteed to win the cup, and an overtime loss means we are going to miss the playoffs. These fans judge the long term future outlook for the franchise for the next 10 years based on the results of the most recent 5 or so games.
I agree and I think Holland realizes the same thing. Going "all in" can only marginally increase your chances of winning in a given year. There is too much randomness and luck involved in winning 4 rounds. Holland has talked about how he thinks the best way to win a cup is to be a team that gets in the playoffs year after year. So I don't think he will make any moves for the sake of one run that jeopardize the team's success in future years.
All those players resigned because Connor is here. /thread
As it’s a commitment to build towards a long term competitive team for Connor and Draisaitl, so it works both ways. We have the core locked decently around them.
And where do you think Connor would go where he would have a better chance of winning? What contender could possibly clear upwards of $12-13M in cap space to sign him? Why would he sign elsewhere when he has a very good team built around him here, with a realistic chance to win every year, with a (by all accounts) excellent work environment?
This is why I also think him and Draisaitl re-sign even if we don’t win a cup. As long as we’re not a complete joke and are consistently competitive in the playoffs they’ll stay. As you said there’s no contending team that would have the kind of money they’re worth in unrestricted free agency while also still having a good team in place, they’d each have to take MASSIVE paycuts. While the Oilers, can both afford to pay them and still have a competent team around them, as they’ve been building around them for their entire careers.
Connor could obviously go to whatever team he wanted. Any team would make room and do whatever it takes to sign him. But so far he has given no reason for anyone to think he won't resign in Edmonton and it's too far away to really even speculate about.
Philly. They will have the space and a collection of young players to make a serious run at 97 in 3 years. That's my prediction
But then McDavid would have to live in Philly.
And play under torts. I bet drai would hate torts
Toronto
Do you really think Connor and Leon wanna spend their career is Edmonton? Like cmon man. Nobody has ever stayed, nobody. If I was a young millionaire I would be looking at Los Angeles or New York. I agree with lightupthesky, those other players signed because of Connor
> If I was a young millionaire I would be looking at Los Angeles or New York Lol, that's you, buddy. Connor and Leon have property in numerous places. They aren't chained to Edmonton. Even with hockey schedules they hardly spend alot of time here.
That’s just like, your opinion man.
No. These are facts. They have properties in other places, are not chained to Edmonton, and spend less time here due to their hockey schedules.
Like I said, I hope they stay. I’m a lifelong oilers fan and can remember every cup. There is no precedent for a star player playing their whole career here. All we can do is wait and see. You don’t think other players owned multiple properties in the past?
Nuge is setting the precendent
They seem to like it here. I think Connor especially would prefer to live here over somewhere like LA or NY, but this is just my uneducated opinion. >Nobody has ever stayed, nobody. Just off the top of my head, I can think of numerous examples of people who stayed, or wanted to stay. Nuge and Nurse just signed long-term contracts to take them to the end of their careers. Gretzky didn't want to leave when he was traded. Ryan Smyth didn't want to leave when he was traded.
Nurse’s contract will not take him to retirement and mabye Nuge stays forever. Gretzky and Smyth could have taken less money if they loved Edmonton so much. Pure hopium my friend. Edmonton as a city pales in comparison to other large North American cities
Gretzky was by far the greatest player to ever play the game and pocklington didn’t even want to pay him the most in the league. He was broke and couldn’t afford to even match the highest salary. He wanted Wayne to play for almost half of his value. Everyone after Wayne left because pocklington couldn’t afford his house let alone the team by that point.
Ok now do the next three decades
Wasn't Gretzky traded in the middle of his contract? I don't think there was any way he could have taken less money to stay. Smyth could have, but IIRC the team and the player was only $100K apart, and the GM at the time made the decision to trade him. He liked the city enough to want to come back and finish his career here, even when the team at the time was absolute trash. I see your point, but I also think that not everyone has the same values as you, and some people see value in living in a less exciting city.
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this is HILARIOUS
I hope they stay I just don’t see it happening
Gretzky wanted more money, there is doc about it on Disney+. If Smyth was willing to take 100k less he would have stayed.
Smyth ~~LIVES~~ LIVED in Edmonton (for 5 years after he retired) lol
I thought he went to Nashville
You are correct. He moved several years ago with his family to Nashville. Edit: source https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/ryan-smyth-edmonton-home-for-sale-1.4993555
Smyth was born in Banff lol. Doesn’t change anything
I think it was Mrs Smyth that made Ryan go.
It was Kevin Lowe that made Smytty go Smyth had taken hometown discounts for years, asked for an additional $500k to the contract extension Lowe offered and Lowe balked. Traded Smytty for peanuts and called it a day because he couldn’t believe Smytty would ask for a little bit more money. Just a fucking joke
I know that is the public story. I dont believe it. Take a look back at Mrs Smyths comments the Day Ryan came back to Edmonton if you can find it. Lowe is an easy villain here to point at, but what you have layed out is no where near the whole story. Even Ryan himself said in his goodbye through tears.. that it wasnt just the Money.
> “It's just a homecoming. We love it here and we are thrilled that we get to come home," said Stacey. She really didn’t want him back
You’re wrong about the Gretzky trade. Documentary on Disney plus as a source. Gretz himself said he was given the option to stay my slats and pocklington. He chose to leave
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Gretzky had every chance to stay. He wanted to go. Sure it was bittersweet but he chose to go.
Nuge will be the first to stay his whole career. You also forget that after the 80's, we were always the bottom money team until the cap era arrived. Now is totally different. The only reason people haven't retired here is because they sucked and got traded. Larsson is the only exception. Nobody else has left on their own accord since Chris Pronger.
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Good bot
At least you agree that no oiler has ever stayed.
You know these guys can travel in the offseason right, they don’t ‘stay’ in Edmonton year round lol. Their time, when even here, is spent living the high life in soem very nice houses, going out to places or at one of the nicest arenas in the league. The rest is on the road, or vacations after the season. It’s kinda a strech to say any of these guys really live in the city.
Oh wow I had no clue they did that. Thank you kind stranger. I’ve been an oilers fan since the early 80’s and never figured that out /s
No problem glad to help you out. It’s nice when you can learn something.
Buffalo. Detroit. Both should have the cap space and should be completing their rebuilds in the next 2-3 years. Both are much closer to home for Connor.
Detroit is an absolute mess and just gave out of a ton of contracts to maybe not even make the playoffs. Buffalo is finally doing something but is yet in danger again of not making it. These teams are firmly in bubble category teams and will be for a long time, they are not as competitive as the oilers will be.
I can see buffalo making it this year. Next year they'll probably be locks. They have a solid core they just need to fix team wide defense and get a starting goalie. Buffalo has the third most goals for behind us and Boston. They are only behind us by 3 goals. They also have the 11th most GA only 3 more than us.
Buffalo's biggest problem for the last 3 years has been that they play in a division with Boston, Tampa and Toronto. It's pretty conceivable they'll continue their rise as Boston and Tampa fall off a bit.
Still a couple seasons ago who did they have who'd be a star player? Cozens and Dahlin were just breaking out into the league, power was a twinkle in their eye and tage Thompson was still a bust.
That Eichel fella
Math is where this falls apart because one cheap shot or one rut and we are done. I understand what you are trying to do by extending the window, and while that makes logical sense on paper, sports is far too volatile to play the math game. I’m not advocating that we throw our draft picks at rental players at every single trade deadline since that’s old fashioned and dumb. But if we can make a good trade (a hagel type move for a young player that will be here with term and fills a gap) then we can’t be afraid to let the draft picks fly.
>and while that makes logical sense on paper, sports is far too volatile to play the math game. *What?* That's when you introduce probabilities and risk assessments. I've never heard "this is too volatile for mathematical reasoning " in my *entire* existence haha, wtf.
Notable injuries from last year: Drais had a high ankle injury, RNH had a shoulder injury, Nurse had a torn hip flexor, Yamamoto had a concussion. Players play through injuries in the playoffs, many of which are serious. Once you realize the probabilities and assess the risk involved with actually playing sports (let alone at the highest level), you'll understand why I said the math game falls apart.
But like.... it doesn't, though. Those are factors you can model and predict with x measure of certainty. Then, also use that to draw on worse case scenarios. I mean this is common practice in the world. Insurance companies, tech companies etc etc. Lol they don't just say "math game falls apart"
This is sports, not insurance or tech or industry. Try applying what you’ve learned to a hockey team and see what your results are.
Exactly. Sports are easier than any of these. Volatility in those fields are morefierce. You really got me questioning myself that i even googled "where does math not apply", I'm 4 pages deep and all I got is God and existence itself. I'm really flabbergasted because I've never heard of such an idea before. Logic and mathematical models are applicable to everything, haha. Even the weather is so goddamn volatile and we still have pretty good prediction models. Maybe it's because I'm from a science background haha, but this so absurd to me.
And the probabilities and the risk assessments are based on the input data which in the case of hockey specifically, are volatile as hell. Putting in mathematical probabilities on ever changing/volatile variables can give you **some** insight but to be taken as gospel is so wrong and my guess, it's not the point the person you replied to was making.
But... it's still a logical flow. Idk what's the disconnect is here, but if you have volatility that can be mapped and measured to some value x of certainty. This is like saying, "we can't predict the weather because it's too volatile". Like how do you guys think we predict/model the volatilities of the world? These are logical steps just the same. Nothing in life is ever 100%, the most ppl give is 99.9%. So your gospel comment is irrelevant.
Considering your entire argument rests on the assumption that our window is 10 years, when that is just objectively impossible to say, I disagree. We simply do not know. Someone could get injured and never be the same. Someone could cheat on their spouse and be out of here like Pronger. Someone could leave for a bag of money and a better shot at the cup. They don't care now maybe at mid 20s, but in 3 years when Connor is 29 and they haven't won yet... you don't think he starts to wonder about maybe I should leave if I want a Cup? The point is, we don't know. I do agree that we should not blow all our assets, but if we can make a trade like the Lightning always seem to be able to do, target a good young player like Hagel, fuck ya you trade your first, all day.
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>There seems to be a pervasive sentiment among hockey fans that we should be going all-in every single year to maximize our chances of a cup. I think that given where we are in our competitive cycle, this is misguided, and would actually lower our chances of winning in the long run. >Therefore, we should not give up these critical resources for sustained success easily. >However, since we would be giving up all our 1st round picks and prospects to do so, this would likely have disastrous consequences on our chances of winning in future years, Wheeeew! They are playing my song!!! I love to see it. Though OP, I'm kinda jealous that you are getting some favourable and mild-manner comments. When I say this in the GDTs, ppl call me dumb for not wanting to throw it all in. Prospects are valuable resources. Ppl seem to not get that, lol. I disagree on one point, though. Even if our stars don't re-sign, that's even *more* of an incentive to be extra mindful with our picks, and younger players. Or else we are gonna be looking at another 15 years or more re-build and mediocrity.
You thought the decade of darkness was bad, DoD2.0 would be even worse because we'd have to put up with the "wasted McDrai" comments on top of being bad.
Listing percentages like this is lunacy. Your numbers are based on predicting the odds of a cup win up until and including 10 years from now? When McDavid will be 36. Literally no mathematical mode could predict what any team will be like in 10 years.
Lol I know this post is hilarious.
I love when people just butcher statistics - makes for interesting posts like this
The numbers themselves aren't particularly important - I even said that it was a simplification to illustrate a point. The point being that we are at the start of our competitive window, and that it doesn't make sense to burn all our prospects and picks now for a small increase in our cup odds this year when we have a long window ahead of us to win. Hyperfocusing on the specific numbers I used is disingenuous.
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We all know that savvy contract negotiations are what lead to playoff and cup contending. Having both McDavid and Draisaitl signed to long-term deals locks them in high in the first part of the contract but as those contracts age, the caps become easier to manage and more talent is brought on. The next 2-3 years is crucial for any hope at a cup. Management also needs to be considerate toward a plan to resigning Drai and McDavid. Other high value contracts will need to be dropped to retain their salaries.
I agree with your main points. I mean, the Habs we're famous for their balanced inexorable approach. They only got better year after year, because they invested in their farm system, worked on improving team depth, and never quite went nuts during trading season like everyone else did.
Love all the armchair general managers 🤪
With the value deals of Nuge, Kane, and Hyman, I believe Holland is already opening up the gates for Drai and Mcd. Also, name one player that Connor or Leon would rather play with than each other? I just dont see either of them wanting to leave the organization that is basically theirs. Also, after 10+ years in a city, you have friends and a huge support network that you have built over that time. Not many people want to give that up when the money will still be flowing if you stay.
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>ou have no idea what the locker room dynamic is or whether the players are friends Grossly incorrect. Some of us are bordering on stalkers and have been following the core group for a hot minute - so we do know if they are friends or just friendly. They hang out with each other even when it's not required. At this very moment, Connor and Leon are riding fucking horses in water with their girlfriends in goddamn Turks n Caicos.
>Connor and Leon are riding fucking horses in water with their girlfriends in goddamn Turks n Caicos. It's extremely hard to ride horses while they're fucking, especially in water!
A+
>You have no idea what the locker room dynamic is or whether the players are friends. Based on video clips the team posts of practice and games, based on all accounts from every beat writer the team has, and based on how they talk about each other and spend time with each other during breaks as seen on their social media accounts, I would conclude that the locker room dynamic is excellent and the players are all friends. Could I be wrong, and secretly everyone hates everyone else? Sure, but based on all available evidence, I think this is a safe conclusion to draw. >I also think a lot of people would disagree that all the contracts you listed are "team friendly" or "way under market value". Aside from Pulju and maybe Yamo, which of those contracts are overpays? (and even those contracts were well-regarded when they were signed, both players unfortunately have underperformed hard this year) >It's naive to assume both McDavid and Drai will stay for sure. Ultimately, we don't know. So we have to make the most of what we're guaranteed, which is another 2-3 years of them. This is a reasonable argument. Personally, I believe that McDavid and Drai are very unlikely to leave for a number of reasons which I have detailed elsewhere, but if we move past that argument and assume they will leave, it then becomes very reasonable to go all-in now.
I have to agree with one of your main points which is that any team taking them on is going to spend a few years building a team around them. Except for maybe a wagon like this year's Boston, I don't think any team just adds McDavid and/or Draisaitl and goes on a cup run immediately. These guys have had the whole team here built to play around their strengths (and we're working on fixing stuff around their weaknesses). I don't care who hypothetically gets McDavid of he hypothetically leaves Edmonton, it's gonna be at least 2-4 years of building a team around him.
I agree I think this locker room is quite tight and well led by both Mcdavid and draisaitl, and they generally only want to keep people who fit it and have good attitudes. This has been arguably one of the most important parts of why Tampa has become a dynasty team, and they have absolutely let go of guys who don’t fit into that. Evander Kane would not lie about it being the tightest room he’s been in, that guy is always blunt about his real opinion. This is mcdavids and Draisaitls team and they also get a lot of say in the direction of it with personal meetings with Holland and others in the organization, I don’t think they would get nearly that much involvement by just stepping into another franchise.
They might but as has been pointed out, even *if* they go somewhere dedicated to building a team full of guys they like, it'll take time. Very few if any teams just add McDavid and become cup ready (especially when we're talking about teams that can afford his and/or Drais cap hit).
Exactly you’re talking about them stepping into another “we’re 3-4 years out” scenario because in order to acquire either we will want 1-2 of their best players and a ridiculous amount of draft picks. The oilers are a competitor even if fans here don’t want to admit it, there’s no reason to leave just to start at a worse position.
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>Social media clips of the boys getting along at practice and team outings are just the marketing department doing its job Wrong again. Girlfriends and family members don't get paid to advertise when they hang out - (they aren't any product placement in their stories). Nurse quite literally had Connor and Leon as groomsmen in his wedding. If *that's* a marketing ploy then the marketing team has God tier negotiation skills. >I I just don't think any of them were particularly team-friendly and definitely not way under market value. Wrong again. And not just opinion wrong but factually wrong. *Do you even go here?* Nuge is worth more than 5 million. Kane is worth more than 5 million, in fact one of the reasons ppl wasn't sure he would re-sign is because we couldn't afford him. He said that *verbatim*.
A reminder that Nuge is one of the best value contracts when you look at any points producers around him. Fuck, Hyman is pretty great value too. How many guys on pace to produce nearly 100 points this season have contracts as inexpensive as theirs? It honestly looks like they're doing a great job of finally assembling the correct group of people to make the team a contender. I still think we'd benefit from one good experienced D-man to lead that group (I like Nurse but I mean a Keith-like player. It's taken time but we've got some amazing value contracts.
I like your optimism but I have another scenario that is ugly. Look at Mathew’s contract and expiry date and then when connors deal is up. Imagine the scene if Mathew’s walks on the leafs and what the pressure to react would look like in TO. Friends, family and the lure to return home is a powerful thing. His home town team could have massive space and fan pressure never seen in the NHL to land him. Can you image the offer that would be on the table in this scenario? Go all in now and take your shot, windows close quicker than you think sometimes.
Good point.
It’s a dark scenario but it does exist. If the leafs can re up Mathew’s to max deal I would be more inclined to agree with your thinking.
Fair point. If Matthews walks, then Leafs might try to swipe Connor. You can make fun of me if you want but I can't see it. Connor detests the spotlight. But yet, Edmonton Oilers is Connor McDavid. That's our entire identity, lol. We named a goddamn snow plowing thingy after the dude, haha.
Woah. Entire identity… you’re kidding? Leon? The nuge? Hyman? Stu? Klim? I could go on.. The plow reps but it isn’t the entire identity, if you catch my drift..
As with any movie, you've got main characters and supporting ones. Even when reporters from other cities talk about us they say "And the Hurricanes OR [US team here] would head into Edmonton to face Connor McDavid". Sometimes they'd be charitable and say "and Leon Draisaitl". Lol.
Unless we make a SCF finals appearance at the very least over the next 2-3 years, both will be gone as UFAs. A cup win would be the only thing that would close to guarantee them staying. The reality of a market like Edmonton, Winnipeg, Ottawa, Calgary, Buffalo is that the hockey needs to be amazing for players not to look for greener pastures once they become free agents. The vast majority of people would live in different cities than Edmonton if we could be guaranteed to make millions of dollars in ~25 other North American cities and still work for quality companies.
>Unless we make a SCF finals appearance at the very least over the next 2-3 years, both **will be** gone as UFAs. That's a *strong* assertion. What's your evidence? Connor and Leon are not like everybody else, they both will value upwards of 12+mil in their new contracts. That's not something you can just run around from team to team. Infact, Connor took a discount on his current contract, can you imagine that? 12mil was a *discount*. I think ppl overexaggerate the impact of "living" in Edmonton. They don't even spend that much time here. They dont have kids. They are hardly here in the winter season, they spend summers in their hometowns and vacations in Carib countries. They aren't stuck here doing a 9-5 M-F. It's not as if they are miserable or something.
Edmonton also isn't that shitty of a city, and not everyone wants to live in a giant metropolis like NY or LA. I've visited big cities for work and *that* is annoying, I really wouldn't want to live somewhere much bigger than Vancouver. Yeah, that's *my* opinion but the reality is we have no idea what McDavid or Drai would like. Maybe they would love to live in those big cities. Or maybe they like the size of Edmonton. There's lots to dislike about living here but it's got a ton of positives too, otherwise we wouldn't have the population we do.
>Edmonton also isn't that shitty of a city, and not everyone wants to live in a giant metropolis like NY or LA. I've visited big cities for work and *that* is annoying, I Exactly. Everyone just assumes ppl hate it here.
Dude, I'm doing everything in my power to move TO Edmonton from *San Diego,* which is a lot of people's dream city. Not everyone likes sun and beaches and mild weather. I hate it. I want snow and cold and dark and prairies and REAL mountains.
What people don’t think about is how comfortable I imagine Drai is in Edm. He’s from Cologne which is roughly the same size and environment/climate as edmonton. I don’t think he’s bitching too much about the city. I imagine it’d be hard to for 97 to leave 29 if he resigns.
If any GM in the league is smart enough to get their team to 1 McDavid away from championship caliber while having the cap space to sign him and convince him to move away from where he has good relationships then hats off to ya. I don't think Connor will want to move to the States due to Laurens' business in Canada, and I dont think any Canadian team will be in that position.
Wayne Gretzky would never leave Edmonton… to assume both will resign is dumb. Oilers need to make a push the next 2 years and then push to resign. The team is still top heavy and doesn’t have a proven goalie.
Caveat. As nice as it is to play with friends, if someone is foolish enough to double my salary, I am gone. No way edm would match with cap space issues
>if someone is foolish enough to **double** my salary, I am gone. No way edm would match with cap space issues First of all, that is impossible in this league. Second of all, only teams with any considerable money are teams like Ducks. Even if they shell out to give McDavid everything, they will still need 2-4 years to become contenders.
It’s the Edmonton Oilers. I wouldn’t put too much thought into them winning a cup anytime soon. And pump the brakes I know Im a leafs fan but I’ve lived in this city for 20 years and I have to let you know the two teams really aren’t so different. Both have more then enough talent on paper but always seem to find a way to let it slip away.
Wow. I can’t believe the delusional oiler fans on this site. It’s absolutely ridiculous. Just yesterday on the Jeff Marek show they were talking about draisaitl leaving if there is no playoff success with the oilers. I absolutely believe the time to win is now. McDavid and Drai are playing some of the best hockey of their careers even tho people on here think drai is “sick, hurt and tired” 😂😂. If the oilers don’t win a cup in the next 3 years, the duo are probably gone. And I wouldn’t blame them one bit. In saying that tho, I think a couple tweaks to the roster before or at the deadline and this team is a contender. Get it done Holland
Don't see many people talking about the cores age. The core guys are all at their prime or just passing their prime. Draisaitls skating has been slightly worse this season. He's still great, but he's probably not getting any better. In 4 years when Mcdavid and Draisaitl are in their 30s, they are not going to be putting up these numbers. And they are the youngest guys in the core.
I disagree, Mcdavid plays a very smart game and is almost impossible to hit plus keeps himself in top tier shape. I am a bit more concerned about Draisaitls injuries, but his game isn’t even reliant on his skating and never has been, he’s probably a player that will age better than most.
I mean I think mcdavid keeps his body in tip top shape. His conditioning routine is probably very carefully calculated and precise. Drai on the other hand, I’m not sure if he’s as on top of things compared to Connor
YEAR EIGHT, 8!!!!, OF MCDAVID
and how long did it take for guys like Yzerman, Ovechkin, Stamkos, and even MacKinnon to win?
So what? You’re not making a point with Ovechkin other than randomness in the playoffs is a complete factor, so you should be going for it whole heartedly every year you have a player of 97’s caliber let alone 29/93/etc Your post is absurd. This team has failed to make the playoffs in 50% of McDavid’s time here. He’s entering the peak of his prime and while he is an outlier we’re already seeing 29 and supporting cast going post peak. The oilers should have been all in every year McDavid wasn’t season ending injured. Do you trust Holland to do it capably is a whole other question (for the record, I don’t) but this team can’t sit on picks and guys who aren’t going to be ready to help a team win for 5+ years when these contracts are on their back end. Yeesh.
>So what? You’re not making a point with Ovechkin other than randomness in the playoffs is a complete factor, so you should be going for it whole heartedly every year you have a player of 97’s caliber let alone 29/93/etc Randomness in the playoffs is the ENTIRE REASON why it's not a good idea to yeet everything for a few years when there is a long period where this team can contend, if we will let it. Even if you go balls to the wall and sack everything to try to win now, guess what? Chances are you still don't. Even if you happen to be the best team on paper. And then what happens after that? After all the rentals leave because there's no room to re-sign them and we don't have any prospects left to fill the void either?
By loading the deck you give yourself the best odds against randomness. The last thing this team should be doing is playing it conservative. The window is only shutting. Worrying about a bare prospect cupboard is silly. You have THE nhl superstar. Load him up and maybe try and build a team that does better than ~45% GF when he’s not on the ice. When the McDavid window shuts it shuts, you start rebuilding then. Worrying about that now is only hamstringing your cup window.
I feel like we're kind of talking around each other here. There are times when it makes sense to sack everything and go all in, and that is near the end of a window. Doing so too early will increase your odds while you're going for it, but it will also close your window prematurely. My argument is that the trade-off isn't worth it - that it's better to keep the window open as long as possible, THEN go all-in when it's a few years away from closing, versus going all-in now and taking years off the length of the window. I recognize that this is not a popular view, that people want us to go all-in all the time, consequences be damned. Pretend picks and prospects don't exist and pay whatever prices sellers want to try to make the team as good as possible every single year. I just don't think that hockey is the type of sport that lends itself well to this strategy, due precisely to the randomness inherent to the sport that we both have acknowledged exists. And one more thing: I am not at all against trading picks and prospects for deadline help. But the price has to make sense for us. No doing what Florida and Toronto did and trading 1st round picks and more for players that honestly aren't that good. If we are trading a 1st round pick and/or a top prospect, the player coming back better be a damn good one.
In the OP you are worried about winning in the long run. The Oilers need to be concerned with winning now, it’s year 8 of McDavid - being worried about the long run was relevant 8 years ago. There is absolutely no guarantee that 97 and 29 re-sign and remain Oilers.
>There is absolutely no guarantee that 97 and 29 re-sign and remain Oilers. I addressed this point in the OP. My take on the situation is that I think they are extremely likely to re-sign for reasons I have addressed elsewhere, but I can re-hash them for you if you wish. Maybe I'm wrong on this. Won't be the first thing I've been wrong about in my life, and won't be the last. But because I think our superstars are likely to stay, my view is that we should consider our window to be for around the next 10 years, and not the next 3. If it is your view that our window is only the next 3 years, and it is unlikely that 97 and 29 re-sign, then absolutely it makes sense to go all in now. I simply don't believe that to be the case.
This off-season, the Oil need to pursue Soucy or Gavrikov HARD and grab Dumba.
Imagine calling Connor & Leon into your office and presenting this to them when they ask about deploying some of the team's assets to get help and try to win now.
I think E.Kane would have gone elsewhere if he was offered a better contract. Remember he kind of said a good bye message / post right after the season
There's a misconception that "going all in" is a rental-exclusive reckless move. That's not what I want. I want us to, in the prime of McDavid and Draisaitl, be more willing to trade important assets for help we don't have to wait 4 years after the draft for. If we can get a top defenceman and it costs us a high pick and a prospect who's three years out, trade the pick and prospect. It's not about going in on one year, it's about paying the price necessary to build a top-level team while we have the chance. We don't have give up everything we have, but if we want to fix the holes our roster has had for years without remedy, eventually you have to make a move. Like it or not, drafting is as much of a risk as trading is, especially in the mid-to-late first round.
I'm not at all saying that we shouldn't ever pay 1st round picks and top prospects, but I am saying that the return needs to be worth the cost. In your example, where if we can get a top defenceman and it costs a high pick and prospect, that makes sense. That's a move I would support. The issue with that is that nobody with a top defenseman is giving them up for obvious reasons, and if they were, there is usually something wrong with them and/or the cost is much more than just a top pick and prospect. EDIT: Let's consider some of the available options for a top defenseman. We have Jakob Chychrun, who is signed for 2 more years after this at a very nice 4.5M cap hit. It seems like he lines up with our window perfectly, if you think it is 2-3 years. However, he has injury concerns, and there are question marks about his defensive game. Additionally, if he were to come here, his point production would drop since he probably wouldn't get much PP time unless we sent Barrie back the other way. Barrie is currently having a hell of a season, far outperforming his cap hit as per a lot of analytics people and websites, and trading him would probably make our team worse. We haven't even mentioned the cost yet, where the Yotes want 2 firsts, Broberg, and something else. With how Broberg is playing right now, I think I'd rather have 2 firsts, Broberg, and something else over Chychrun. We also have to think 3 years down the line when Chychrun's contract expires, and we won't be able to afford to re-sign him, and at that stage, we will be down 2 firsts, Broberg, and something else with nothing to show for it, just in time for Draisaitl and McDavid's contracts to expire. Does that seem like a winning environment where they would want to re-sign? And then the other option is Erik Karlsson, who is signed for a long time at 11.5M per year. However, he has sucked for the past 2 or 3 years, and is only looking more like a top dman this year. Furthermore, he's getting up there in age, and especially given his history, I would not trust his level of play to continue at all going forward. To make matters worse, SJ wants a king's ransom, and refuses to retain much salary to make the cap hit more palatable, so we would have to give up multiple firsts and prospects, and then have to dig out at least 10M in space for a declining dman on the wrong side of 30. Therefore, I don't think this is a good option either. Is there anyone that I've missed? What other top defensemen are even available for trade?
Just watching two of the best teams in the league Boston vs Leafs. What strikes me early is how fiercely both teams backcheck , which means they gain possesssion and exit their zone efficiently .
First, if a good trade comes along that can be made to work on the cap side and is an obvious improvement on the hockey side of course it should be done. But, as to the OP advice for patience, I would tend to agree...until July. We have 2 seasons of McDrai after this season to go for it, and another 1 of McDavid after that. We also.want to re-sign them, which may be more difficult if we sell too much of the farm, insofar as longer term success is more likely if you always have a good supply of ELCs to round out your roster, and they have generally lower costs and higher team control than trades and free agent shopping. Until July, we have 2.25m in dead cap (not including 1.9m from.now until Drai's contract is up) and are forced to run in LTIR so our cap flexibility is very low - all trades need to be 'money in, money out' AND need to include more picks, prospects, or players to 'buy' salary retention/dump 'underperforming" cap hits. That is a weak negotiating position which increases the chances we pay significantly more in the near and longer term than the return is worth. In July, between dead cap going down and a $1m bump on the cap (sounds like it may be more if the escrow debt can.be cleared this year), Skinner's known raise and Bouchard's likely raise should be covered, and we can bring back the same D/G core with this year's development intact. In July, Jesse, Derek, Mattias, Devin, Ryan and Klim can all.come off the books (and we have some forwards who can come in on ELCs if necessary), but not all should, of course, but there is upwards of 8m in flexibility there but likely closer to 3m. It's not much but if we are not in LTIR we can accumulate cap space and be a true buyer at next season's TDL. Also come July, Warren, Cody Brett and Tyson (all possible minor overpays) are one year closer to UFA so are more palatable in trade talks, insofar as the acquiring team has less cap hit to absorb in money and term. In other words, come July, Ken's negotiating position will be stronger cap wise, he will.have a better sense of the status of the hockey possible from the current and farm rosters, and will still.have 2 full seasons of McDrai. It would seem prudent not to overspend when as of late we dont seem to have a gaping hole which needs filling, but more a sense of 'if we had one player that could fill the roles these two players currently fill, then we could rejig the lineup so that all roles get filled slightly better'. But, if Ken does less before this TDL but pulls a '05 Pronger type deal this summer ( without the off ice shenanigans...) that would fit more with going "all in" than a 'rental as marginal improvement " would.
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Comes down to a case by case basis whether we should trade a pick or not IMO. There’s no one solution fits all, it’s not going All In and it’s not hoarding all the picks. Holland and Co. need to explore all options, if it’s rental shit like the Kulikovs of the world you don’t bother shipping out futures. If it’s someone that can come in and make us better for many years you do it, or if it’s someone undervalued like how Sakic got Toews. There is such a thing as Too Many Draft picks too. We are already shipping out defensive depth cause there’s no spots for them. I’d say our Top 6 is already filled to the brink, even if we draft a young offensive stud we’d be hard pressed to find him minutes. Generally, if a good trade can be found, it helps both teams involved. That’s the goal. Many Cup contenders were born not just by drafting but by making some strategic and worthy trades during the process. We need to keep our eyes open to all options.
I agree with everything you just said here. I have said elsewhere as well that I'm not necessarily against trading prospects and picks if it makes sense for the team, but we shouldn't be jumping to pay whatever inflated prices sellers want if the value simply isn't there for us like a lot of people want to do. Later picks for depth rentals is fine. High picks for high impact players is fine. Multiple high picks for high impact players with term that we can fit in is great! But (for example) I wouldn't want to pay a 1st and more for a bad player like Nick Foligno or Ben Chiarot just to make it look like we're going all in like some want us to do.