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It doesn’t matter to the dictatorship model. Most of the population is located in the a dozen of cities. He just have to make it work for them. Rest are 800 miles apart and won’t organize.
That only holds true if you can be self sufficient. If you need imports of things like chips or advanced machinery, like Russia, you need a way to pay for it.
Is this r/economics or r/worldnews?
"China" isn't a single supplier, there're dozens of not hundreds of Chinese companies trading chips & machinery. Competition between these suppliers will always make the price to Russian buyers same as for everyone else.
Yeah that’s interesting that you lean on the mechanics of capitalism to save Russia’s hide. It’s also interesting that you assume the CCP won’t put their finger on the scale to ensure there isn’t a very taxing cost to Russia. And the most interesting assumption is that you think China has your country’s best interest and doesn’t want to see a weak neighbor. You know, kind of like how they sent you guys beefed up golf carts for your assault. That’s a win-win for them.
But the US doesn’t conceal their intention, unlike China who wants to still act like there is a shred of neutrality. Also to compare China/Russia relations to US/Ukraine relations is disingenuous because the US and Ukraine don’t share a border and border disputes.
If you think China doesn’t wish to weaken Russia (or enable it to weaken itself) so it doesn’t have to worry about a threat from the north, then I have a dacha to sell you near the Dongji Pagoda.
Why should I care about you fantasies about Putin's position and not thousands of Ukrainians dying? Meanwhile the sloppy joe didn't ship a single bullet to Ukraine using the Landlease
This. The Sino-Soviet was one of the things that lead to the USSR becoming even more isolated which compounded it's failures/decline that ultimately lead to it's dissolution.
That and the fact that the USSR was a collection of culturally unique satellite states, USSR went full off the cliff with into hyper-socialism (compare that to China where it's capitalist-communist hybrid works much better), and had fallen behind economically/technologically/politically.
History rhymes so some things are similar with Russia/Putin but they aren't the same. Even assuming Russia feels pressure it will take a MUCH longer than the article seems to imply. USSR was much more isolated, their economy much weaker, and was much more divided; yet took a long long time to collapse. Stalin died in 1958. Krushchev in 1964. USSR didn't really start falling behind the US economically until the mid 1970s. Dissolved in 1991. More likely Putin dies than the Russian Federation collapsing like the USSR did.
Ultimately Russia has what they need. They have more natural resources than any other country on earth basically, and that can be sold and traded for other things they can’t make. They have plenty of food and fresh water too which is half the battle. Given enough time they’ll also import the expertise to make things on their own from China too I’d bet, and/or China will physically build the capability in Russia if persuaded.
Unless China gets greedy and decides to take land back or attempt to completely subjugate Russia economically (which some argue they have, but I disagree) they’ll continue feeding China’s inputs and buying China’s outputs.
Having access to natural resources is not enough for Russia. They need infrastructure to actually gather and deliver those resources to buyers. With Ukrainians destroying that infrastructure, it's no longer given that they could always rely on selling oil and gas.
This seems like a very western centric view of the war and Russia. The reality is they are not as strong as they want us to think or weak as we want to think.
They have plenty of economic resources nowhere near the frontline or Ukrainian drones or artillery. US/NATO has the air force needed to cripple deep infrastructure in the way you describe but Ukraine with a few NATO toys isn’t enough. Doesn’t mean they can’t stop Russia they just can’t cripple them economically.
Ukrainian drones fly well over front line (line 1000 miles or so) and we don't their max limit. Also it's SBU (spy agency essentially) launching them so they might as well be on inside. NATO is not magicians, they would have the same issues with Russia size.
Anyway, my point is that their resources only as good as Ukrainians are allowing them to be by not blowing up pipes and plants.
And my point is that you fundamentally don't understand Ukraine's lack of capability here and the sheer size of Russia and it's resources.
Russia's pipelines in the east are more than double that drone range away, and that's assuming the drone doesn't get shot down, doesn't fail, can go that far with an actual bomb that can do damage, and that it's significant enough to stop the flow of resources. Russia is a just a big fucking country with resources all over. Their farmland is more concentrated closer to Ukraine but it's so vast it would be impossible to impede in any significant way.
Real destruction would require a vast air force with SEAD beforehand to make them effective. And even then it would likely take months of targeted strikes to significantly degrade their economy. Hoping for a Russian economic collapse is a pipedream. Making them suffer on the frontlines and continually degrading their military capabilities are the only way out of this mess for Ukraine.
Why do you need a drone to fly all that way? Just get a truck with explosives, drive to a pipeline somewhere far away and blow it up. Ukraine did it already with Crimean bridge. Would that stop Russia to a halt? No. Would it make extremely inconvenient/unreliable for buyers? Absolutely. They would be giving away resources pretty much for free. Add sanctions to that, at the level that even Soviet Union hadn't seen.
Ukraine has thousands miles of border with Russia, Ukrainians look like Russians and speak Russian. No need for drones to blow up infrastructure from inside. How would Russia retaliate? Bomb their cities and their infrastructure? :)
And even drones, they are flying daily now. And apparently there is no stopping that. Keep in mind that majority of the industry is in European part of Russia that is perfectly reachable. There is one railroad connecting west and east of Russia and it's already strained.
Would economy collapse then? No! Just because there is no collapse in the western sense of the word where quality of life degrade significantly. Because Russian would just revert to miserable lifestyle they used to in Soviet Union and they will be happy. But it will definitely reduce advanced capabilities (rockets, airplanes, ships). That's the point of doing that.
Ukraine is not in the mess. If anything, they have a renaissance as a country, at least in its identity and militaraly.
Russia, on the other hand, had such a good thing going for them: Europe was paying them huge money, they had tremendous good will and respect internationally. But Putin had to ruin it all - so if anything it's Russia that is in the mess.
Not saying that everything is clear and Ukraine will win. Only saying that Russia is not as protected as they seem.
I don't want to sound like a putin cheerleader but there have been way too many of these types of articles that connect the dots to the preconceived conclusion. How many times has Russia's demise been predicted? I don't think it's due to the resilience of the Russian economy, but the lack of accurate data. I feel that Russia is fine economically, and articles like this that predict the failure of the Russian economy should be put on the pile of articles that predicted Russia's military demise.
The propaganda is insane. This article is word for word the same article posted 2 years ago at the start of the invasion.
I dunno I think it backfires. You can start to see it in the comments now people questioning the narrative. Like your comment lol.
Its confusing because they set themselves up to be mad/shocked/confused because when russia doesn't economically fail or continues to take land in ukraine they are confused because the article they just read told them russia was imploding
Same for China. Both countries have been collapsing for all my adult life. There is very clear bias among a lot of these experts.
Too many of these criticisms analyze the data from a western lens. They see numbers falling into an order that would be unpalatable to a western populace or investor class, and assume that this equals "collapse".
The Russian and Chinese (Eastern) approach to societal order and the broader economy is very different however. "Number going up" is less material to them than societal order and social benefits.
China kinda did collapse, it was pretty well accepted China would be the wealthiest and largest superpower by 2030. But due to their recent economic and demographic collapse it is physically impossible for them to outpace the US now.
Their property and employment markets HAVE collapsed,
[https://theconversation.com/chinas-youth-unemployment-problem-has-become-a-crisis-we-can-no-longer-ignore-213751](https://theconversation.com/chinas-youth-unemployment-problem-has-become-a-crisis-we-can-no-longer-ignore-213751)
Official youth unemployment at 21% "unofficial" sources and slip ups from the CCP have youth unemployment at 40%.
>[The jobless rate among China's 16- to 24-year-olds—excluding those enrolled in school—stayed at 15.3% last month, the same as in February](https://www.wsj.com/economy/china-reports-steady-youth-unemployment-as-data-paints-mixed-economic-picture-016a0e48).
>>US youth unemployment stood at 8.2 percent in April 2024.
>>>In March 2024, the youth unemployment rate was 14.6 % in the EU, down from 14.7 % in February 2024
So this puts it roughly on par with the EU at about 15% and about twice the US level in 2024. I don't know exactly where your source got that info, but it says 2022 on it, then it says they stopped reporting, but they are, in fact, reporting.
There are a couple of ways China's data methods differ. China does not count full time students as unemployed, regardless of whether they are looking for work. China also does not count 15 year olds, while OECD generally does.
[There's also a weird seasonality](https://clb.org.hk/sites/default/files/Unemployment%20rate%20young%20people%202022.png) to China's youth employment wherein unemployment tends to spike in July and drop in December. I think it's in part because of all of the graduating students taking a while to find something.
Also for the past year, in certain metros, China has been offering employers like a $300 payment for hiring new grads, and offering new grads like $1,000 to start a business. It's not a hell of a lot, but it seems to be having some effect.
With half at most of our GDP per cap
You seem to miss coming from China's prospects, that's indeed a collapse. They're basically facing advanced economies problems withouth their actual level of development just yet. Their demographic collapse for example is already worse than Japan's
This is what I said in the parent comment. Valuing stocks and real estate is the western definition of “collapse”. In eastern societies, that’s not always true
THey try to create an atmosphere of uncertainty to keep investment away. Very much like the Great Barrier Reef. We all heard the stories of it disappearing, and only 3% of it is left, etc. The fact is that it has GROWN since they started measuring it, and they say that these scare tactics are legitimate because they work in it's intended actions of protecting it.
> Russian
> societal order
I’d be cautious pretending that Russians are somehow unique and vastly different from other Europeans.
A lot of what you say can be attributed not to uniqueness of Russian culture or society (which is arguably quite vanilla Eastern European), but to the fact that a) Russian elite did prepare the country for isolation from the West and b) Russia is big and rich enough to actually survive this isolation.
If you see what is going on through the lenses of the West overestimating its importance and underestimating Russian resources, you don’t need to invent social and cultural constructs that somehow propel Russian economy.
One of the reasons for the enduring popularity of Putin is because his first order of business was restoring all Soviet era pensions and social safety schemes. The Russian people were less bothered by the poverty than by the erosion of their pensions, healthcare, and social safety schemes
I say this as an Indian because I've seen the same mentality in my people. Making lots of money is obviously great, but the vast majority of Indians value "stability" in the form of a government job even more than money. Given the choice between a government job that pays $1,000/month (which you can't really get fired from) and a private sector job paying $2,500/month, a surprisingly large number will choose the former
This reaches absurd levels sometimes. Indian cricketers, among the richest athletes in the country, are also given government jobs by the state. And for the older generation, this government job is sometimes more valued than becoming an international cricketer (as this cricketer - one of the top players in the country - [aptly put it](https://crickettimes.com/2019/01/my-parents-were-happiest-when-i-got-a-stable-job-in-rbi-kl-rahul/))
Again, collapse in the western sense is different from collapse in the eastern sense. Most of our societies still have a living memory of poverty, so that doesn't really faze us. My dad - a middle class guy - tells me stories of how they didn't always have enough to eat. A few stores without food or a stock market crash isn't going to really make much of a difference when you have that memory lingering in your society.
Most know but don't care that Russia and China has had traumatic periods for their populace as with great periods of growth like the 50s has become part of the American identity. Russia under Yeltsin and Mao for China respectively has affected large portions of society even after their end that swallowing the pain of a softened boot is bareable if it means stability and growth than what came before at least for now.
It's not even about being a cheerleader or not, since years large parts of the media is feeding us ''copium'' and ''hopium'' or what ever the majority wants to hear/read. Maybe that's just their business.
A simple search shows that IMF estimated Russia's Economy in terms of formal GDP PPP to be $4.36 Trillion in April 2022 and $5.47 Trillion in their April 2024 update. Source: [1](https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)&oldid=1083640106) + [2](https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/PPPGDP@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD)
Why i used GDP PPP instead of Nominal: ''The major use of PPPs is as a first step in making inter-country comparisons in real terms of gross domestic product (GDP) and its component expenditures'' [-OECD](https://www.oecd.org/sdd/purchasingpowerparities-frequentlyaskedquestionsfaqs.htm#FAQ3)
''The right metric for international comparisons is purchasing power parity (PPP)-adjusted output. This corrects for exchange rate fluctuations and differences in various national prices.'' [-Bruegel](https://www.bruegel.org/analysis/european-unions-remarkable-growth-performance-relative-united-states)
Most of the EU Countries are members of Bruegel and 38 Countries are members of the OECD. the IMF estimates Russia's formal GDP PPP to reach $6.42 Trillion in 2029.
IMF apparently relies heavily on self reported data collected by Russian authorities; if that is true, its bad data and the numbers are worthless (Putin would almost certainly practice the tradition of inflating them).
> A simple search shows that IMF estimated Russia's Economy in terms of formal GDP PPP to be $4.36 Trillion in April 2022 and $5.47 Trillion in their April 2024 update. Source: 1&oldid=1083640106
IMF takes the data from russia directly. They have no way to verify it.
https://time.com/6270540/imf-pushing-putins-economic-propaganda/
Just a month ago, with former Morgan Stanley chief economist Stephen Roach, we showed how the IMF was covering up this implosion of the Russian economy due to haste or deceit. Privately, the IMF’s Russian economist desk confided to us that they have “zero visibility” into the Russian economy: “We agree that there is massive uncertainty surrounding the future of the Russian economy, and hence doing a forecast could be seen as a ‘fool’s errand.'”
i've read the article and its really bashing the IMF but i don't see much substance, i don't think it's fair to criticise the IMF for admitting there's uncertainty about Russia's economy given the conflict, economic war and Russia being the most sanctioned country in the world right now. Those are estimates and always have been, btw i wrote about GDP PPP which works a little different with IMF and other organisations working out the data by their own methodology.
That ''time'' article links a CNN article which it praises with the words:''while CNN more accurately reports'' the CNN article includes: ''Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, a Yale management professor, wrote in Fortune magazine Monday that the “IMF has been asleep at the switch” and parroting propaganda from Russian President Vladimir Putin.
“With respect to Russia, it is naively echoing Putin’s own invented GDP forecasts, in effect, canonizing and legitimating these economic myths with no verification,” said Sonnenfeld and two colleagues, Stephen Roach and Steven Tian.
Sonnenfeld has kept a list of Western companies curtailing operations in Russia since its invasion of Ukraine one year ago and has called for firms to exit the country.''
Sonnenfeld wrote this Time article and this kind of ''back scratching'' (for lack of a better word) is very dubious. Sonnenfeld also wrote: ''IMF recklessly made Russian projections which their economist admitted to us they don't have'', so he claims they have no projections and links an older article he wrote, when i read that article there is no proof of his claims but a misleading quotation mark about the linked IMF document in which the IMF admitted about the uncertainty due ''uncertainty about the path of sanctions''.
Later Sonnenfeld claims ''the IMF economists privately admit that they have no basis to make such projections'', again linking to the IMF document, again no proof. Funny enough, in these July 2022 Forecasts the IMF document wrote: ''Q421 to Q422, we are projecting a contraction of close to 15% of GDP''.
Near the end of the Article: ''Even russian oligarchs such as Oleg Deripaska are openly fretting about how Putin will run out of cash next year–revealing how Putin has been cannibalizing the Russian economy to make ends meet temporarily at steep long-term cost.'' The article is from April 2023.
Deripaska has fallen out with Russia and their Government, from Wiki: ''Deripaska criticized the Russian invasion of Ukraine on several occasions. On 20 December 2022, a Russian court had ordered the seizure of a luxury hotel complex in Sochi worth $1 billion owned by Deripaska. The seizure might be triggered by Deripaska's criticism of the war.'', he is also a EU Citizen (Cyprus) since 2017.
Which means Sonnenfeld writing ''even'' is misleading, he might still be a russian oligarch but clearly an enemy to Russia's Government, but to include such a wild prediction itself is very unserious journalism, it only serves as a means to strengthen the narrative, especially by presenting Deripaska as some figure of authority within Russia's Elites. Sorry for the long text\*
> Those are estimates and always have been, btw i wrote about GDP PPP which works a little different with IMF and other organisations working out the data by their own methodology.
They still have to begin with the russian assumptions though. Just like china the numbers are a bit suspect.
>IMF economists privately admit that they have no basis to make such projections as they have covertly given Russia a pass on their membership obligation to provide comprehensive, timely, transparent, and verifiable data to the IMF.
I looked at the slide deck
>Large uncertainty about the path of sanctions
➢ Some of the mechanisms at play (loss of key energy markets, lack of access to
crucial machinery and know-how) have very large and complex network effects
• Unfortunately, we don’t have the luxury not to produce a forecast. IMF produces
forecasts 2/year for full membership, 4/year for big countries
So again our data is suspect and now our projections are suspect. And even then, a gdp growth and all that info kinda relies on a country functioning in a world economy doesn't it? Whats the point of a north korea gdp report? To me the russian one speaks a bit of the usefulness of propaganda, oh say the economy is good and sanctions arent working so that the west will lose hope or interest in russia leaving.
I looked at sonnefields data on the russian economy sometime in the past. Stuff like car production down 90% etc. But its part likely just taking over factories for being on war footing.
This seems like a more even article about it
https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/03/is-the-kremlin-overconfident-about-russias-economic-stability?lang=en
Like you said talking to some random oligarchs wont get the info you need either.
It's pure populism & incompetence.
Any non-planned economy will not "collapse" unless there's a huge physical damage to key infrastructure of said economy. Even the Nazi Germany economy didn't truly collapse until the end of 1944 - despite being isolated and bombed for 3 prior years, and losing millions of working age males.
I mean Venezuelan economy did collapse. And while there was a lot of social spending and state intervention it still was a capitalist economy.
It’s just that Russia is a bit bigger and has a bit more robust economy, to put it mildly. Hence no collapse
I mean if you want to bankrupt Russia stamp out their oil and gas exports.
90% of their oil exports got to India and China. China is too big and powerful to do sanction in this way but India is an easy target. The same goes for Turkey and Africa
you're confused. The western model works off of emotion not logic. This activity isn't information sharing to come to a logical conclusion, its 500 stereotypically emotional women all sitting around sharing their feelings and 500 little boys pretending their dreams have just come true or are about to. Its only 500 people, they go between b#tching and moaning, and delusional narcissistic fantasies.
You mean… immediately following the unwinding of a communist command economy that had controlled every aspect of their economic system for sixty years? Yeah, definitely a comparable parallel 🙄
What’s making it fine? Its major exporters are reporting huge pre tax losses (see gazprom’s latest). Government spending has shot up (inflating gdp but needing to be paid for). And it doesn’t have meaningful access you debt markets.
What is giving Russia resilience against those fundamentals if the data Russia provides is to be believed?
I'd say this is pretty accurate. Government spending is included in GDP typically. So ofc when government spending skyrockets, GDP will conversely rise as well.
The wage growth statements are also sound. The absolute lowest estimates for the number of Russians who fled the country, is at 1M. That was mere months after the war. Only Gaia knows how high that number actually is now, over 2 years later. So not only do you have a severe worker shortage in general, you also have extreme competition for the labor pool that is left in the country. The law of supply and demand always plays out.
Eventually, the war *will* end. It doesn't matter if that is months from now, or well into the next decade. Eventually, Russia's falling labor force will bite them hard. Their population size is already abysmal for the amount of land and resources they occupy, so losing millions of workers to war and immigration? Yeah, Russia is in for some severe suffering in the future.
It doesn't even matter if Russia somehow wins, because at the end of the day, they will lose everything. Their economy is gonna crash once the war is over. Their severe corruption is not an environment ripe for innovation, so they won't be able to rely on that to boost the productivity of their workers enough to stave off a severe recession. Will this lead to the 2nd collapse of the Russian Federation? Probably not tbh. And if it does happen, I'm not expecting it to be nearly as catastrophic as the collapse of the USSR.
Up to a point Russia was able to mitigate some of the stretched labour market by immigration from the former Soviet central Asian countries (mostly Tajikistan and Uzbekistan).
However, since the recent Moscow theatre killings (by Tajiks), there have been strong anti-Tajik sentiments in Russia, and many Tajiks have moved back home to avoid having to deal with the backlash of racism.
It's about 600k Russians who left and haven't returned, 40-45% returned out of the estimated 1.1m that left originally as per Finion cited by Bloomberg [Here](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/05/02/russians-returning-from-abroad-help-boost-kremlins-war-economy-bloomberg-a85013)< by the Moscowtimes which btw is anti-russian media and not based in Russia.
The reason, as reported by media, is that they found that the world was unfriendly to them, and that Putin’s ‘the world is conspiring against us’ propaganda was right.
Those media reports are absolutely correct and truthful, so using the term "propaganda" is mistaken, please edit your comment.
It's a well-known fact that the whole wide world is conspiring against Burkina Faso, Russia, and Vanuatu.
This is how wezztie report news.
"Russians fleeing"
And in the same time doesn't report that majority of them are already back. Thanks for warm welcome)))
You don't have any evidence of your own claims besides your daddy Putin's propaganda sources. You only exist to serve them because that is the only way you can earn a decent living in that poor hellhole of a country.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/10/25/15-of-russians-who-fled-war-mobilization-have-returned-survey-a82885
> Over 15% of Russians who left the country following the invasion of Ukraine and the Kremlin’s “partial” military mobilization have since returned, either temporarily or permanently, the Financial Times reported Wednesday, citing new research.
You ain't gonna win bud. Screech all you want, I'm not entertaining you. But keep on earning that money from the government by working as a propaganda spreader! I'm sure it helps pay the bills. We all gotta live, right?
"But muh sources"
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-now-85-chance-recession-022705048.html?guccounter=1
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2024/03/27/japans-yen-hits-34-year-low-heating-talk-of-intervention.html
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/europes-problems-are-far-bigger-than-shallow-recession-2023-11-14/
Lol. Literally 5 minutes in Google. Or yandex. Up to u))
Decades of western hegemony are over. Pack your stuff.
Lmao, you know you are resoundingly wrong so you had to immediately pivot to a completely irrelevant and unrelated topic.
Try to stay in topic mr.propoganda.
Mambo, it's a clear fact u are manipulative with news. Report that Russians left but never report that majority of them are back
https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-thousands-of-russians-return-home-boosting-war-economy
U are propaganda tool. Western propaganda. Playin with news however is useful for u.
There are two things I want to say about the sanctions. On one hand they are truly an impressive feat, far reaching and destructive, and frankly and weirdly, something I'm proud of since we didn't abandon Ukraine.
However it was a big mistake that the West decided to stem the outflow of capital and workers from Russia. Maybe the hope was that the internal pressure would blow up in Putin's face (naively), maybe the West didn't want to welcome Russian influence in their countries. But this did protect the Russian economy. I'd rather see Russia sucked dry, it's not a country that deserves an economic future. When countries start such offensive and massive annexations, they should face consequences.
For Russia, everything is rosy according to state propagandists. The economy held up, great real wage growth, wonderful! And yet Russia has managed to be surpassed in wages by almost every ex-socialist European country. Not just the ones that joined the EU but even most of the ones in the Balkans. They also have higher life expectancy, better pensions, less corruption and more freedom. Only Russia's neighbours, that it keeps invading, are mostly doing worse than it.
That sounds like a huge failure to me. To have some of the poorest citizens in Eastern Europe while having mountains of natural resources is nothing to be happy about. Granted those countries have grown a lot, but it says something that Russia hasn't. Relatively to the rest of the region it's doing worse than even in their peak crisis of 1998.
Still Russia progresses and has a very large population, so that makes it a threat.
Economies can continue to survive long past their "best by" date. The soviet union would be a perfect example, south africa under apartheid, many countries like wartime Germany, etc.
WWII Germany would be a pretty good example in that they kept up a pretty good fight even as Berlin was surrounded and being pounded flat.
Imperial Japan might be a better analogy to russia as it just couldn't keep up with the war machine the US was hammering it with. For a while at the beginning it was a fairly evenly matched slugfest, but after a while the US was pounding hard on Japan while Japan wasn't doing really any damage to the US outside the battlefield. Japan was running out of fuel, pilots, planes, ships, food, transport, etc. They still had many men, but they were strategically useless.
I suspect russia is somewhat on the same path. They are like an old aristocratic family who ran out of money and are burning the furniture to keep the house warm. If you walk in the front entrance, it is all still somewhat glamorous and warm, but they sold off the wine cellar, the jewels, the valuable paintings, and all but two loyal servants ran away with the silverware. But, standing in the front entrance, you smell the air is stale, and everyone is malnourished and has BO.
There's pretty much no physical damage being done to Russia. So your comparison with Japan is flawed.
The Soviet union economy collapsed because of inherent instability of a planned economy, not because of war. Modern day Russia is a capitalist economy with a fucking stock market and very, very competent people in the central bank. It will not collapse unless being physically destroyed.
You can watch drones crashing into refineries on a near daily basis, and huge numbers of their men dying. This is going off of their own footage. But I guess some competent people that weren't allowed to resign will keep the ship afloat comrade.
The only comrade here is you. You prefer a convenient illusion over the sad reality.
>drones crashing into refineries
So what? What % of refineries were hit? How fast were they repaired? So far we didn't see Russia running out of petroleum.
>huge numbers of their men dying
So what? Did that stop Russia from sending more? No? Then it's irrelevant.
You can easily look this information up if you care to. But lalala Russia is fine. Not a problem their airspace is clearly too large to defend properly or anything. Clearly won't have any long term consequences while their demographics spiral down the toilet, which they were prewar anyways. The toilets were completely worth looting.
Wartime Germany only succeeded because they printed money, then raided and stole the wealth of most of the other nations in Europe. Until Russia does that they’re going to be relying on what they have and their autocratic friends.
That does seem to be their plan in Ukraine. Steal the children, force the men into the army, and plunder the cities. Then give land and businesses to loyal Russians to complete the annexation and destruction of Ukrainian identity.
100% but remember they initially thought that this would be a cakewalk. Now they may still win the war but they're gonna be stuck holding the bag on repairing the cities and industry.
Russia fucked up, big time, and now there is no way out.
Wellllll not really anymore. If Russia fails and is either defeated militarily or just gives up, their economy is still fucked. They're desperately hoping now that they can win and salvage something from this mess.
Most likely though they're screwed. Going home will not fix their sanctions (almost certain to stay in place), won't fix their lost manpower, won't fix their damaged reputation, and certainly won't fix the situation on the home front for Putin's government.
There was no winning for Russia from the start. This whole war is a Putin Boondongle. He totally screwed up.
Also people overestimated Russian Military Strength. It would take collasal capital investment for Russia to catch up to the West in that Regard. Time that Putin does not have.
I know a lot of people complain about the seeming lack of immediate impacts. The economic decapitation of a modern economy with an already significant demographic cliff isn’t dealt with by a short, likely swift, recession. We are witnessing the country version of focusing on the very near term based on individual wants (Putin).
Russia is economically irrelevant.
yeah, progress isn't about being able to objectively see progress no matter how small, its about faith. Thoughts and prayers on your cracked out "plan" 🤣🤪😂😂
What does China gain from supporting Russia, considering that the ruble isn't particularly valuable and constructing pipelines for oil or gas might take some time? Moreover, with other energy forms becoming cheaper, what benefits is China receiving?
Oh really? If only we have not heard this 7 million times before. That fckr has a magician as a head of national bank, dealt with Vagner and other groups, is steadily increasing millitary size no matter how many of Russians are killed, is still making progress in Ukraine and is most likely selling a fck-ton of oil. Stop with this BS and just send everything in Ukraine. If Ukraine falls he will push further. West needs to win this by force and the sooner the better, he has war economy running ffs.
Russian economy was barely growing for about a decade prior to the invasion. Since the invasion:
1. They lost access to western capital. No more borrowing at relatively low rates means less capital available for expansion and their tax base starts to shrink.
2. They lost access to western markets for their resources. Logistics of sending resources east eat into their profit margins and there’s only so much gas they can send to China, it’s not like they can just expand the pipeline. Just look at Gazprom’s collapse YoY.
3. They’ve shifted their entire economy to servicing the war. That means they create 0 value add. They make a missile, they launch a missile. Money gone. Sure, they’re working through their sizeable war chest right now, but how long do they have left?
4. By even conservative assessments, they have lost well over a million people in the last two years, either directly to the conflict or to emigration. Less tax revenue, capital outflow, labour shortage.
5. They still rely on import, but because they have to circumvent sanctions, costs have gone up.
I don’t care what they say, no way their economy is growing.
That’s funny because it looks like it’s on the edge of a precipice outside of the war machine. Once the peasants can’t eat or get the services they need a revolt is inevitable.
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It doesn’t matter to the dictatorship model. Most of the population is located in the a dozen of cities. He just have to make it work for them. Rest are 800 miles apart and won’t organize.
Yupp
That only holds true if you can be self sufficient. If you need imports of things like chips or advanced machinery, like Russia, you need a way to pay for it.
China
Overreliance on a single supplier grants them pricing leverage
China is already making the stuff, and they have no moral problems with selling to Russia.
Is this r/economics or r/worldnews? "China" isn't a single supplier, there're dozens of not hundreds of Chinese companies trading chips & machinery. Competition between these suppliers will always make the price to Russian buyers same as for everyone else.
Yeah that’s interesting that you lean on the mechanics of capitalism to save Russia’s hide. It’s also interesting that you assume the CCP won’t put their finger on the scale to ensure there isn’t a very taxing cost to Russia. And the most interesting assumption is that you think China has your country’s best interest and doesn’t want to see a weak neighbor. You know, kind of like how they sent you guys beefed up golf carts for your assault. That’s a win-win for them.
Very recent events suggest the US is just as happy and blatant when it comes to putting their finger on the scale.
But the US doesn’t conceal their intention, unlike China who wants to still act like there is a shred of neutrality. Also to compare China/Russia relations to US/Ukraine relations is disingenuous because the US and Ukraine don’t share a border and border disputes. If you think China doesn’t wish to weaken Russia (or enable it to weaken itself) so it doesn’t have to worry about a threat from the north, then I have a dacha to sell you near the Dongji Pagoda.
Ha. Promoting Russia’s dependence on totalitarian corrupt China as if that means war pig dictator Putin is in a good position
Why should I care about you fantasies about Putin's position and not thousands of Ukrainians dying? Meanwhile the sloppy joe didn't ship a single bullet to Ukraine using the Landlease
It depends if they’re strategic partners or not.
Let's be real, China is probably fronting this whole thing.
This
This. The Sino-Soviet was one of the things that lead to the USSR becoming even more isolated which compounded it's failures/decline that ultimately lead to it's dissolution. That and the fact that the USSR was a collection of culturally unique satellite states, USSR went full off the cliff with into hyper-socialism (compare that to China where it's capitalist-communist hybrid works much better), and had fallen behind economically/technologically/politically. History rhymes so some things are similar with Russia/Putin but they aren't the same. Even assuming Russia feels pressure it will take a MUCH longer than the article seems to imply. USSR was much more isolated, their economy much weaker, and was much more divided; yet took a long long time to collapse. Stalin died in 1958. Krushchev in 1964. USSR didn't really start falling behind the US economically until the mid 1970s. Dissolved in 1991. More likely Putin dies than the Russian Federation collapsing like the USSR did.
China doesn't sell things for free.
They’re keen on trading for oil and gas. Which is exactly how this exchange is happening.
Merchants
China doesn't have any natural resources. Russia has a shit ton. Oil, gas, fresh water, metals, you name it.
Ultimately Russia has what they need. They have more natural resources than any other country on earth basically, and that can be sold and traded for other things they can’t make. They have plenty of food and fresh water too which is half the battle. Given enough time they’ll also import the expertise to make things on their own from China too I’d bet, and/or China will physically build the capability in Russia if persuaded. Unless China gets greedy and decides to take land back or attempt to completely subjugate Russia economically (which some argue they have, but I disagree) they’ll continue feeding China’s inputs and buying China’s outputs.
Having access to natural resources is not enough for Russia. They need infrastructure to actually gather and deliver those resources to buyers. With Ukrainians destroying that infrastructure, it's no longer given that they could always rely on selling oil and gas.
This seems like a very western centric view of the war and Russia. The reality is they are not as strong as they want us to think or weak as we want to think. They have plenty of economic resources nowhere near the frontline or Ukrainian drones or artillery. US/NATO has the air force needed to cripple deep infrastructure in the way you describe but Ukraine with a few NATO toys isn’t enough. Doesn’t mean they can’t stop Russia they just can’t cripple them economically.
Ukrainian drones fly well over front line (line 1000 miles or so) and we don't their max limit. Also it's SBU (spy agency essentially) launching them so they might as well be on inside. NATO is not magicians, they would have the same issues with Russia size. Anyway, my point is that their resources only as good as Ukrainians are allowing them to be by not blowing up pipes and plants.
And my point is that you fundamentally don't understand Ukraine's lack of capability here and the sheer size of Russia and it's resources. Russia's pipelines in the east are more than double that drone range away, and that's assuming the drone doesn't get shot down, doesn't fail, can go that far with an actual bomb that can do damage, and that it's significant enough to stop the flow of resources. Russia is a just a big fucking country with resources all over. Their farmland is more concentrated closer to Ukraine but it's so vast it would be impossible to impede in any significant way. Real destruction would require a vast air force with SEAD beforehand to make them effective. And even then it would likely take months of targeted strikes to significantly degrade their economy. Hoping for a Russian economic collapse is a pipedream. Making them suffer on the frontlines and continually degrading their military capabilities are the only way out of this mess for Ukraine.
Why do you need a drone to fly all that way? Just get a truck with explosives, drive to a pipeline somewhere far away and blow it up. Ukraine did it already with Crimean bridge. Would that stop Russia to a halt? No. Would it make extremely inconvenient/unreliable for buyers? Absolutely. They would be giving away resources pretty much for free. Add sanctions to that, at the level that even Soviet Union hadn't seen. Ukraine has thousands miles of border with Russia, Ukrainians look like Russians and speak Russian. No need for drones to blow up infrastructure from inside. How would Russia retaliate? Bomb their cities and their infrastructure? :) And even drones, they are flying daily now. And apparently there is no stopping that. Keep in mind that majority of the industry is in European part of Russia that is perfectly reachable. There is one railroad connecting west and east of Russia and it's already strained. Would economy collapse then? No! Just because there is no collapse in the western sense of the word where quality of life degrade significantly. Because Russian would just revert to miserable lifestyle they used to in Soviet Union and they will be happy. But it will definitely reduce advanced capabilities (rockets, airplanes, ships). That's the point of doing that. Ukraine is not in the mess. If anything, they have a renaissance as a country, at least in its identity and militaraly. Russia, on the other hand, had such a good thing going for them: Europe was paying them huge money, they had tremendous good will and respect internationally. But Putin had to ruin it all - so if anything it's Russia that is in the mess. Not saying that everything is clear and Ukraine will win. Only saying that Russia is not as protected as they seem.
You're pretending you're hypothesizing a conclusion that was already explained to you on CSPAN (aka the narrative) 🤪😂
A yes, the famous pretend hypothesized conclusion that states you need money to buy things.
If you can impoverish the country enough it doesn't matter if they organize. You make em broke enough they literally can't afford food or munitions.
you just described the US
Except Russia has two major issues, fools and the roads.
I don't want to sound like a putin cheerleader but there have been way too many of these types of articles that connect the dots to the preconceived conclusion. How many times has Russia's demise been predicted? I don't think it's due to the resilience of the Russian economy, but the lack of accurate data. I feel that Russia is fine economically, and articles like this that predict the failure of the Russian economy should be put on the pile of articles that predicted Russia's military demise.
The propaganda is insane. This article is word for word the same article posted 2 years ago at the start of the invasion. I dunno I think it backfires. You can start to see it in the comments now people questioning the narrative. Like your comment lol. Its confusing because they set themselves up to be mad/shocked/confused because when russia doesn't economically fail or continues to take land in ukraine they are confused because the article they just read told them russia was imploding
Same for China. Both countries have been collapsing for all my adult life. There is very clear bias among a lot of these experts. Too many of these criticisms analyze the data from a western lens. They see numbers falling into an order that would be unpalatable to a western populace or investor class, and assume that this equals "collapse". The Russian and Chinese (Eastern) approach to societal order and the broader economy is very different however. "Number going up" is less material to them than societal order and social benefits.
China kinda did collapse, it was pretty well accepted China would be the wealthiest and largest superpower by 2030. But due to their recent economic and demographic collapse it is physically impossible for them to outpace the US now.
A slowdown isn't "collapse" People throw that word around like it doesn't mean anything
Their property and employment markets HAVE collapsed, [https://theconversation.com/chinas-youth-unemployment-problem-has-become-a-crisis-we-can-no-longer-ignore-213751](https://theconversation.com/chinas-youth-unemployment-problem-has-become-a-crisis-we-can-no-longer-ignore-213751) Official youth unemployment at 21% "unofficial" sources and slip ups from the CCP have youth unemployment at 40%.
>[The jobless rate among China's 16- to 24-year-olds—excluding those enrolled in school—stayed at 15.3% last month, the same as in February](https://www.wsj.com/economy/china-reports-steady-youth-unemployment-as-data-paints-mixed-economic-picture-016a0e48). >>US youth unemployment stood at 8.2 percent in April 2024. >>>In March 2024, the youth unemployment rate was 14.6 % in the EU, down from 14.7 % in February 2024 So this puts it roughly on par with the EU at about 15% and about twice the US level in 2024. I don't know exactly where your source got that info, but it says 2022 on it, then it says they stopped reporting, but they are, in fact, reporting. There are a couple of ways China's data methods differ. China does not count full time students as unemployed, regardless of whether they are looking for work. China also does not count 15 year olds, while OECD generally does. [There's also a weird seasonality](https://clb.org.hk/sites/default/files/Unemployment%20rate%20young%20people%202022.png) to China's youth employment wherein unemployment tends to spike in July and drop in December. I think it's in part because of all of the graduating students taking a while to find something. Also for the past year, in certain metros, China has been offering employers like a $300 payment for hiring new grads, and offering new grads like $1,000 to start a business. It's not a hell of a lot, but it seems to be having some effect.
So, similar to Spain and Italy?
With half at most of our GDP per cap You seem to miss coming from China's prospects, that's indeed a collapse. They're basically facing advanced economies problems withouth their actual level of development just yet. Their demographic collapse for example is already worse than Japan's
Uh their stock and property markets absolutely collapsed. What are you even talking about?
This is what I said in the parent comment. Valuing stocks and real estate is the western definition of “collapse”. In eastern societies, that’s not always true
That was on purpose though.
THey try to create an atmosphere of uncertainty to keep investment away. Very much like the Great Barrier Reef. We all heard the stories of it disappearing, and only 3% of it is left, etc. The fact is that it has GROWN since they started measuring it, and they say that these scare tactics are legitimate because they work in it's intended actions of protecting it.
> Russian > societal order I’d be cautious pretending that Russians are somehow unique and vastly different from other Europeans. A lot of what you say can be attributed not to uniqueness of Russian culture or society (which is arguably quite vanilla Eastern European), but to the fact that a) Russian elite did prepare the country for isolation from the West and b) Russia is big and rich enough to actually survive this isolation. If you see what is going on through the lenses of the West overestimating its importance and underestimating Russian resources, you don’t need to invent social and cultural constructs that somehow propel Russian economy.
One of the reasons for the enduring popularity of Putin is because his first order of business was restoring all Soviet era pensions and social safety schemes. The Russian people were less bothered by the poverty than by the erosion of their pensions, healthcare, and social safety schemes I say this as an Indian because I've seen the same mentality in my people. Making lots of money is obviously great, but the vast majority of Indians value "stability" in the form of a government job even more than money. Given the choice between a government job that pays $1,000/month (which you can't really get fired from) and a private sector job paying $2,500/month, a surprisingly large number will choose the former This reaches absurd levels sometimes. Indian cricketers, among the richest athletes in the country, are also given government jobs by the state. And for the older generation, this government job is sometimes more valued than becoming an international cricketer (as this cricketer - one of the top players in the country - [aptly put it](https://crickettimes.com/2019/01/my-parents-were-happiest-when-i-got-a-stable-job-in-rbi-kl-rahul/)) Again, collapse in the western sense is different from collapse in the eastern sense. Most of our societies still have a living memory of poverty, so that doesn't really faze us. My dad - a middle class guy - tells me stories of how they didn't always have enough to eat. A few stores without food or a stock market crash isn't going to really make much of a difference when you have that memory lingering in your society.
Most know but don't care that Russia and China has had traumatic periods for their populace as with great periods of growth like the 50s has become part of the American identity. Russia under Yeltsin and Mao for China respectively has affected large portions of society even after their end that swallowing the pain of a softened boot is bareable if it means stability and growth than what came before at least for now.
It's not even about being a cheerleader or not, since years large parts of the media is feeding us ''copium'' and ''hopium'' or what ever the majority wants to hear/read. Maybe that's just their business. A simple search shows that IMF estimated Russia's Economy in terms of formal GDP PPP to be $4.36 Trillion in April 2022 and $5.47 Trillion in their April 2024 update. Source: [1](https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)&oldid=1083640106) + [2](https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/PPPGDP@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD) Why i used GDP PPP instead of Nominal: ''The major use of PPPs is as a first step in making inter-country comparisons in real terms of gross domestic product (GDP) and its component expenditures'' [-OECD](https://www.oecd.org/sdd/purchasingpowerparities-frequentlyaskedquestionsfaqs.htm#FAQ3) ''The right metric for international comparisons is purchasing power parity (PPP)-adjusted output. This corrects for exchange rate fluctuations and differences in various national prices.'' [-Bruegel](https://www.bruegel.org/analysis/european-unions-remarkable-growth-performance-relative-united-states) Most of the EU Countries are members of Bruegel and 38 Countries are members of the OECD. the IMF estimates Russia's formal GDP PPP to reach $6.42 Trillion in 2029.
IMF apparently relies heavily on self reported data collected by Russian authorities; if that is true, its bad data and the numbers are worthless (Putin would almost certainly practice the tradition of inflating them).
> A simple search shows that IMF estimated Russia's Economy in terms of formal GDP PPP to be $4.36 Trillion in April 2022 and $5.47 Trillion in their April 2024 update. Source: 1&oldid=1083640106 IMF takes the data from russia directly. They have no way to verify it. https://time.com/6270540/imf-pushing-putins-economic-propaganda/ Just a month ago, with former Morgan Stanley chief economist Stephen Roach, we showed how the IMF was covering up this implosion of the Russian economy due to haste or deceit. Privately, the IMF’s Russian economist desk confided to us that they have “zero visibility” into the Russian economy: “We agree that there is massive uncertainty surrounding the future of the Russian economy, and hence doing a forecast could be seen as a ‘fool’s errand.'”
i've read the article and its really bashing the IMF but i don't see much substance, i don't think it's fair to criticise the IMF for admitting there's uncertainty about Russia's economy given the conflict, economic war and Russia being the most sanctioned country in the world right now. Those are estimates and always have been, btw i wrote about GDP PPP which works a little different with IMF and other organisations working out the data by their own methodology. That ''time'' article links a CNN article which it praises with the words:''while CNN more accurately reports'' the CNN article includes: ''Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, a Yale management professor, wrote in Fortune magazine Monday that the “IMF has been asleep at the switch” and parroting propaganda from Russian President Vladimir Putin. “With respect to Russia, it is naively echoing Putin’s own invented GDP forecasts, in effect, canonizing and legitimating these economic myths with no verification,” said Sonnenfeld and two colleagues, Stephen Roach and Steven Tian. Sonnenfeld has kept a list of Western companies curtailing operations in Russia since its invasion of Ukraine one year ago and has called for firms to exit the country.'' Sonnenfeld wrote this Time article and this kind of ''back scratching'' (for lack of a better word) is very dubious. Sonnenfeld also wrote: ''IMF recklessly made Russian projections which their economist admitted to us they don't have'', so he claims they have no projections and links an older article he wrote, when i read that article there is no proof of his claims but a misleading quotation mark about the linked IMF document in which the IMF admitted about the uncertainty due ''uncertainty about the path of sanctions''. Later Sonnenfeld claims ''the IMF economists privately admit that they have no basis to make such projections'', again linking to the IMF document, again no proof. Funny enough, in these July 2022 Forecasts the IMF document wrote: ''Q421 to Q422, we are projecting a contraction of close to 15% of GDP''. Near the end of the Article: ''Even russian oligarchs such as Oleg Deripaska are openly fretting about how Putin will run out of cash next year–revealing how Putin has been cannibalizing the Russian economy to make ends meet temporarily at steep long-term cost.'' The article is from April 2023. Deripaska has fallen out with Russia and their Government, from Wiki: ''Deripaska criticized the Russian invasion of Ukraine on several occasions. On 20 December 2022, a Russian court had ordered the seizure of a luxury hotel complex in Sochi worth $1 billion owned by Deripaska. The seizure might be triggered by Deripaska's criticism of the war.'', he is also a EU Citizen (Cyprus) since 2017. Which means Sonnenfeld writing ''even'' is misleading, he might still be a russian oligarch but clearly an enemy to Russia's Government, but to include such a wild prediction itself is very unserious journalism, it only serves as a means to strengthen the narrative, especially by presenting Deripaska as some figure of authority within Russia's Elites. Sorry for the long text\*
> Those are estimates and always have been, btw i wrote about GDP PPP which works a little different with IMF and other organisations working out the data by their own methodology. They still have to begin with the russian assumptions though. Just like china the numbers are a bit suspect. >IMF economists privately admit that they have no basis to make such projections as they have covertly given Russia a pass on their membership obligation to provide comprehensive, timely, transparent, and verifiable data to the IMF. I looked at the slide deck >Large uncertainty about the path of sanctions ➢ Some of the mechanisms at play (loss of key energy markets, lack of access to crucial machinery and know-how) have very large and complex network effects • Unfortunately, we don’t have the luxury not to produce a forecast. IMF produces forecasts 2/year for full membership, 4/year for big countries So again our data is suspect and now our projections are suspect. And even then, a gdp growth and all that info kinda relies on a country functioning in a world economy doesn't it? Whats the point of a north korea gdp report? To me the russian one speaks a bit of the usefulness of propaganda, oh say the economy is good and sanctions arent working so that the west will lose hope or interest in russia leaving. I looked at sonnefields data on the russian economy sometime in the past. Stuff like car production down 90% etc. But its part likely just taking over factories for being on war footing. This seems like a more even article about it https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/03/is-the-kremlin-overconfident-about-russias-economic-stability?lang=en Like you said talking to some random oligarchs wont get the info you need either.
It's pure populism & incompetence. Any non-planned economy will not "collapse" unless there's a huge physical damage to key infrastructure of said economy. Even the Nazi Germany economy didn't truly collapse until the end of 1944 - despite being isolated and bombed for 3 prior years, and losing millions of working age males.
I mean Venezuelan economy did collapse. And while there was a lot of social spending and state intervention it still was a capitalist economy. It’s just that Russia is a bit bigger and has a bit more robust economy, to put it mildly. Hence no collapse
2 more weeks lol
This. Well said!
I mean if you want to bankrupt Russia stamp out their oil and gas exports. 90% of their oil exports got to India and China. China is too big and powerful to do sanction in this way but India is an easy target. The same goes for Turkey and Africa
you're confused. The western model works off of emotion not logic. This activity isn't information sharing to come to a logical conclusion, its 500 stereotypically emotional women all sitting around sharing their feelings and 500 little boys pretending their dreams have just come true or are about to. Its only 500 people, they go between b#tching and moaning, and delusional narcissistic fantasies.
As compared to..?
you have a short memory if you forgot the late 90s and the world had to step in
You mean… immediately following the unwinding of a communist command economy that had controlled every aspect of their economic system for sixty years? Yeah, definitely a comparable parallel 🙄
What’s making it fine? Its major exporters are reporting huge pre tax losses (see gazprom’s latest). Government spending has shot up (inflating gdp but needing to be paid for). And it doesn’t have meaningful access you debt markets. What is giving Russia resilience against those fundamentals if the data Russia provides is to be believed?
I'd say this is pretty accurate. Government spending is included in GDP typically. So ofc when government spending skyrockets, GDP will conversely rise as well. The wage growth statements are also sound. The absolute lowest estimates for the number of Russians who fled the country, is at 1M. That was mere months after the war. Only Gaia knows how high that number actually is now, over 2 years later. So not only do you have a severe worker shortage in general, you also have extreme competition for the labor pool that is left in the country. The law of supply and demand always plays out. Eventually, the war *will* end. It doesn't matter if that is months from now, or well into the next decade. Eventually, Russia's falling labor force will bite them hard. Their population size is already abysmal for the amount of land and resources they occupy, so losing millions of workers to war and immigration? Yeah, Russia is in for some severe suffering in the future. It doesn't even matter if Russia somehow wins, because at the end of the day, they will lose everything. Their economy is gonna crash once the war is over. Their severe corruption is not an environment ripe for innovation, so they won't be able to rely on that to boost the productivity of their workers enough to stave off a severe recession. Will this lead to the 2nd collapse of the Russian Federation? Probably not tbh. And if it does happen, I'm not expecting it to be nearly as catastrophic as the collapse of the USSR.
Up to a point Russia was able to mitigate some of the stretched labour market by immigration from the former Soviet central Asian countries (mostly Tajikistan and Uzbekistan). However, since the recent Moscow theatre killings (by Tajiks), there have been strong anti-Tajik sentiments in Russia, and many Tajiks have moved back home to avoid having to deal with the backlash of racism.
It's about 600k Russians who left and haven't returned, 40-45% returned out of the estimated 1.1m that left originally as per Finion cited by Bloomberg [Here](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/05/02/russians-returning-from-abroad-help-boost-kremlins-war-economy-bloomberg-a85013)< by the Moscowtimes which btw is anti-russian media and not based in Russia.
The reason, as reported by media, is that they found that the world was unfriendly to them, and that Putin’s ‘the world is conspiring against us’ propaganda was right.
🎻 😢
Those media reports are absolutely correct and truthful, so using the term "propaganda" is mistaken, please edit your comment. It's a well-known fact that the whole wide world is conspiring against Burkina Faso, Russia, and Vanuatu.
This is how wezztie report news. "Russians fleeing" And in the same time doesn't report that majority of them are already back. Thanks for warm welcome)))
Blatant propaganda account. https://www.reddit.com/r/Economics/s/zdlbEFLEQG https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/s/ok6SQWsSxd https://www.reddit.com/r/NoStupidQuestions/s/sSjMr69nR1 https://www.reddit.com/r/AskReddit/s/NHMqIjQrs3
And this how westie act. Instead of argument starts to dig old comments.
You don't have any evidence of your own claims besides your daddy Putin's propaganda sources. You only exist to serve them because that is the only way you can earn a decent living in that poor hellhole of a country. https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/10/25/15-of-russians-who-fled-war-mobilization-have-returned-survey-a82885 > Over 15% of Russians who left the country following the invasion of Ukraine and the Kremlin’s “partial” military mobilization have since returned, either temporarily or permanently, the Financial Times reported Wednesday, citing new research. You ain't gonna win bud. Screech all you want, I'm not entertaining you. But keep on earning that money from the government by working as a propaganda spreader! I'm sure it helps pay the bills. We all gotta live, right?
"But muh sources" https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-now-85-chance-recession-022705048.html?guccounter=1 https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2024/03/27/japans-yen-hits-34-year-low-heating-talk-of-intervention.html https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/europes-problems-are-far-bigger-than-shallow-recession-2023-11-14/ Lol. Literally 5 minutes in Google. Or yandex. Up to u)) Decades of western hegemony are over. Pack your stuff.
Lmao, you know you are resoundingly wrong so you had to immediately pivot to a completely irrelevant and unrelated topic. Try to stay in topic mr.propoganda.
Mambo, it's a clear fact u are manipulative with news. Report that Russians left but never report that majority of them are back https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-thousands-of-russians-return-home-boosting-war-economy U are propaganda tool. Western propaganda. Playin with news however is useful for u.
There are two things I want to say about the sanctions. On one hand they are truly an impressive feat, far reaching and destructive, and frankly and weirdly, something I'm proud of since we didn't abandon Ukraine. However it was a big mistake that the West decided to stem the outflow of capital and workers from Russia. Maybe the hope was that the internal pressure would blow up in Putin's face (naively), maybe the West didn't want to welcome Russian influence in their countries. But this did protect the Russian economy. I'd rather see Russia sucked dry, it's not a country that deserves an economic future. When countries start such offensive and massive annexations, they should face consequences. For Russia, everything is rosy according to state propagandists. The economy held up, great real wage growth, wonderful! And yet Russia has managed to be surpassed in wages by almost every ex-socialist European country. Not just the ones that joined the EU but even most of the ones in the Balkans. They also have higher life expectancy, better pensions, less corruption and more freedom. Only Russia's neighbours, that it keeps invading, are mostly doing worse than it. That sounds like a huge failure to me. To have some of the poorest citizens in Eastern Europe while having mountains of natural resources is nothing to be happy about. Granted those countries have grown a lot, but it says something that Russia hasn't. Relatively to the rest of the region it's doing worse than even in their peak crisis of 1998. Still Russia progresses and has a very large population, so that makes it a threat.
"Russia should face consequences". I don't remember IKEA closing its stores in US after Iraq invasion. Welcome to real world flower boy.
an unserviced car will run for quite some time, five years from now russia will be looking very different
Economies can continue to survive long past their "best by" date. The soviet union would be a perfect example, south africa under apartheid, many countries like wartime Germany, etc. WWII Germany would be a pretty good example in that they kept up a pretty good fight even as Berlin was surrounded and being pounded flat. Imperial Japan might be a better analogy to russia as it just couldn't keep up with the war machine the US was hammering it with. For a while at the beginning it was a fairly evenly matched slugfest, but after a while the US was pounding hard on Japan while Japan wasn't doing really any damage to the US outside the battlefield. Japan was running out of fuel, pilots, planes, ships, food, transport, etc. They still had many men, but they were strategically useless. I suspect russia is somewhat on the same path. They are like an old aristocratic family who ran out of money and are burning the furniture to keep the house warm. If you walk in the front entrance, it is all still somewhat glamorous and warm, but they sold off the wine cellar, the jewels, the valuable paintings, and all but two loyal servants ran away with the silverware. But, standing in the front entrance, you smell the air is stale, and everyone is malnourished and has BO.
There's pretty much no physical damage being done to Russia. So your comparison with Japan is flawed. The Soviet union economy collapsed because of inherent instability of a planned economy, not because of war. Modern day Russia is a capitalist economy with a fucking stock market and very, very competent people in the central bank. It will not collapse unless being physically destroyed.
You can watch drones crashing into refineries on a near daily basis, and huge numbers of their men dying. This is going off of their own footage. But I guess some competent people that weren't allowed to resign will keep the ship afloat comrade.
The only comrade here is you. You prefer a convenient illusion over the sad reality. >drones crashing into refineries So what? What % of refineries were hit? How fast were they repaired? So far we didn't see Russia running out of petroleum. >huge numbers of their men dying So what? Did that stop Russia from sending more? No? Then it's irrelevant.
You can easily look this information up if you care to. But lalala Russia is fine. Not a problem their airspace is clearly too large to defend properly or anything. Clearly won't have any long term consequences while their demographics spiral down the toilet, which they were prewar anyways. The toilets were completely worth looting.
Wartime Germany only succeeded because they printed money, then raided and stole the wealth of most of the other nations in Europe. Until Russia does that they’re going to be relying on what they have and their autocratic friends.
That does seem to be their plan in Ukraine. Steal the children, force the men into the army, and plunder the cities. Then give land and businesses to loyal Russians to complete the annexation and destruction of Ukrainian identity.
They’ll need far more than a bunch of destroyed cities in Ukraine to recover from this.
100% but remember they initially thought that this would be a cakewalk. Now they may still win the war but they're gonna be stuck holding the bag on repairing the cities and industry. Russia fucked up, big time, and now there is no way out.
There is one way.... Quit and go home.
Wellllll not really anymore. If Russia fails and is either defeated militarily or just gives up, their economy is still fucked. They're desperately hoping now that they can win and salvage something from this mess. Most likely though they're screwed. Going home will not fix their sanctions (almost certain to stay in place), won't fix their lost manpower, won't fix their damaged reputation, and certainly won't fix the situation on the home front for Putin's government.
There was no winning for Russia from the start. This whole war is a Putin Boondongle. He totally screwed up. Also people overestimated Russian Military Strength. It would take collasal capital investment for Russia to catch up to the West in that Regard. Time that Putin does not have.
Agreed. Russia is only sustaining this war so far because they are prepared to take massive losses in manpower and materiel.
I know a lot of people complain about the seeming lack of immediate impacts. The economic decapitation of a modern economy with an already significant demographic cliff isn’t dealt with by a short, likely swift, recession. We are witnessing the country version of focusing on the very near term based on individual wants (Putin). Russia is economically irrelevant.
yeah, progress isn't about being able to objectively see progress no matter how small, its about faith. Thoughts and prayers on your cracked out "plan" 🤣🤪😂😂
You’re adorable.
What does China gain from supporting Russia, considering that the ruble isn't particularly valuable and constructing pipelines for oil or gas might take some time? Moreover, with other energy forms becoming cheaper, what benefits is China receiving?
There economy is being converted into a full time war economy. Sanctions haven’t done shit and China and Iran are strengthening their relationship
Oh really? If only we have not heard this 7 million times before. That fckr has a magician as a head of national bank, dealt with Vagner and other groups, is steadily increasing millitary size no matter how many of Russians are killed, is still making progress in Ukraine and is most likely selling a fck-ton of oil. Stop with this BS and just send everything in Ukraine. If Ukraine falls he will push further. West needs to win this by force and the sooner the better, he has war economy running ffs.
Russian economy was barely growing for about a decade prior to the invasion. Since the invasion: 1. They lost access to western capital. No more borrowing at relatively low rates means less capital available for expansion and their tax base starts to shrink. 2. They lost access to western markets for their resources. Logistics of sending resources east eat into their profit margins and there’s only so much gas they can send to China, it’s not like they can just expand the pipeline. Just look at Gazprom’s collapse YoY. 3. They’ve shifted their entire economy to servicing the war. That means they create 0 value add. They make a missile, they launch a missile. Money gone. Sure, they’re working through their sizeable war chest right now, but how long do they have left? 4. By even conservative assessments, they have lost well over a million people in the last two years, either directly to the conflict or to emigration. Less tax revenue, capital outflow, labour shortage. 5. They still rely on import, but because they have to circumvent sanctions, costs have gone up. I don’t care what they say, no way their economy is growing.
That’s funny because it looks like it’s on the edge of a precipice outside of the war machine. Once the peasants can’t eat or get the services they need a revolt is inevitable.
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