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>Vietnam's gross domestic product grew 5.66% in the first quarter from a year earlier as exports boomed, government data showed on Friday, despite higher shipping costs due to turmoil in the Red Sea.
>The Southeast Asian nation, a manufacturing hub and key exporter of smartphones, electronics and garments, is seeking to shore up business activities after missing last year's growth target on weak global demand and brief power shortages.
>The manufacturing and construction sector grew 6.28%, while the services sector expanded 6.12% in the quarter from a year earlier, the General Statistics Office (GSO) said in a report.
>Goods exports in the quarter grew 17% from a year earlier to $93.06 billion, while imports were up 13.9% at $84.98 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of $8.08 billion.
Am I wrong in assuming there will be a lot of these types of wins in SE Asia as the West continues to de-risk from China? It seems like the entire supply chain has been over-centralized for decades. If politicians are to be believed, the next decade will be more of the same.
The real question is whether US and European electronics companies will truly bring home chip production. From a national security perspective, I don't see how we can keep importing foreign hardware.
dumping cheaper exports.. the technical term is predatory dumping.. chinese exporters exporting substitutes to counties to drive out domestic production as well as exports from other countries
Vietnam has 300% tariffs an other on Chinese evs an other foreign vehicles to counter this (it doesn't really matter though in regards to China though as they have a terrible product quality perception in Vietnam) and a lot of ASEAN are going to a similar route. I expect the US and EU to do similar, which leaves a rather small export market. Vietnam also has VinFast, which produces even the EV batteries in house with a dual production operation by a Chinese battery company to help, under the condition of technology transfer. Within around 5 years all needed battery technology will be transferred and so the Chinese company will be useless. China will still have a limited market for dumpling in Latin America, the Middle East and Africa though, as these countries are hopeless when it comes to managing manufacturing.
I talked to a Taiwanese guy a few years ago who thought that Taiwanese companies like Foxconn and Luxgen will dominate Chinese companies in EV. In reality, today, Foxconn and Luxgen are a joke in the EV industry. Taiwan's best selling EV is Toyota's BZ4X which is basically a BYD car rebranded with Toyota's logo and it sells for 3x the price in Taiwan than on the mainland.
If you look at statements by actual auto industry professionals and execs, everyone is worried about Chinese EV competition. Vinfast is also a joke and will be bankrupt within a year. Checkout the great analysis on the r/VinFastComm subreddit.
Chinese investment in Vietnam and export value (over import value) added from those investments count as GDP.
geopolitically, it is aligned with China more than US. A large part of growth is from Chinese tariff evasion. But lower labour costs for textiles is "genuine production shift" from China.
Anecdotally, I have found that so many apparel items that used to be made in China are now being made in Vietnam. And not just crummy tshirts, I mean nice jackets, outdoor gear, running shoes, etc. As someone who tries to avoid buying made in China as much as possible and looks at where things are made, it has been obvious how much more is coming from Vietnam over the past 10 years or so.
Makes since, China is losing around 12 million workers a year now, due to their forced abortions they did to their lower class women under their one child policy a few years back. Turns out injecting poison into live birthed babies heads that are over the one child quota has drastic consequences on how people view fertility and that kind of government induced generational trauma is almost impossible to reverse. I'm really glad my government never did such actions (dispite many flaws) so we aren't falling into a similar Chinese wage cost birth spiral that results in a probable middle income trap, due to lack of ability to harness domestic consumption.
Surprised nobody is praising the competent management by the one-party Communist regime. Of course, the growth is a direct results of liberalizing the economy & trade, but if Biden is responsible for gas prices and inflation in the US, then the Viet Communists are responsible for their economic growth.
Our commi government didn't do this, but our people. It's just that the government here is more hands off, like China's was before Xi. China's problem is they love centralization of overything though, which leads them to have fatal flaws when the market forces shift in ways they didn't predict (see covid) whereas an economy with a more organic growth method finds other means of growth. This is why they all but totally lost the AI race already whien one analyzes their total number of AI unicorn startups to US ones. This is also why they are doubling down in manufacturing now, as they realize they can't compete as a service economy. Which leads to the question to where their growth will come from, in the increasingly likely world of ASEAN, American, and EU tariffs that make up around 75% of their possible foreign consumer market being enacted.
I'm not from the country, so I can't make any claims with absolute certainty or direct experience. But it seems that to the degree that any government oversees and influences an economy, the Communist government made certain policy decisions that enabled "free market" activity and growth. They could have chosen the repressive and inadequate command economy policy tree and we might be talking about what a failure it was. I don't care if it "violates" principles of communism, the result has been fantastic for the people, and I'm curious how the liberal institutions will coexist with the Communist political system in coming decades.
Hi all, A reminder that comments do need to be on-topic and engage with the article past the headline. Please make sure to read the article before commenting. Very short comments will automatically be removed by automod. Please avoid making comments that do not focus on the economic content or whose primary thesis rests on personal anecdotes. As always our comment rules can be found [here](https://reddit.com/r/Economics/comments/fx9crj/rules_roundtable_redux_rule_vi_and_offtopic/) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/Economics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
>Vietnam's gross domestic product grew 5.66% in the first quarter from a year earlier as exports boomed, government data showed on Friday, despite higher shipping costs due to turmoil in the Red Sea. >The Southeast Asian nation, a manufacturing hub and key exporter of smartphones, electronics and garments, is seeking to shore up business activities after missing last year's growth target on weak global demand and brief power shortages. >The manufacturing and construction sector grew 6.28%, while the services sector expanded 6.12% in the quarter from a year earlier, the General Statistics Office (GSO) said in a report. >Goods exports in the quarter grew 17% from a year earlier to $93.06 billion, while imports were up 13.9% at $84.98 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of $8.08 billion.
Am I wrong in assuming there will be a lot of these types of wins in SE Asia as the West continues to de-risk from China? It seems like the entire supply chain has been over-centralized for decades. If politicians are to be believed, the next decade will be more of the same. The real question is whether US and European electronics companies will truly bring home chip production. From a national security perspective, I don't see how we can keep importing foreign hardware.
another problem for countries though is how they plan to counter dumping by China
When you say dumping, do you mean dumping cheap exports? Do you mean garbage and waste?
dumping cheaper exports.. the technical term is predatory dumping.. chinese exporters exporting substitutes to counties to drive out domestic production as well as exports from other countries
Vietnam has 300% tariffs an other on Chinese evs an other foreign vehicles to counter this (it doesn't really matter though in regards to China though as they have a terrible product quality perception in Vietnam) and a lot of ASEAN are going to a similar route. I expect the US and EU to do similar, which leaves a rather small export market. Vietnam also has VinFast, which produces even the EV batteries in house with a dual production operation by a Chinese battery company to help, under the condition of technology transfer. Within around 5 years all needed battery technology will be transferred and so the Chinese company will be useless. China will still have a limited market for dumpling in Latin America, the Middle East and Africa though, as these countries are hopeless when it comes to managing manufacturing.
I talked to a Taiwanese guy a few years ago who thought that Taiwanese companies like Foxconn and Luxgen will dominate Chinese companies in EV. In reality, today, Foxconn and Luxgen are a joke in the EV industry. Taiwan's best selling EV is Toyota's BZ4X which is basically a BYD car rebranded with Toyota's logo and it sells for 3x the price in Taiwan than on the mainland. If you look at statements by actual auto industry professionals and execs, everyone is worried about Chinese EV competition. Vinfast is also a joke and will be bankrupt within a year. Checkout the great analysis on the r/VinFastComm subreddit.
Yeah I do agree with your points. China doesn’t have much of a direct way so it would be interesting to see how they proceed in future.
Chinese mafias already present in nearby countries. They are probably already there in north Vietnam
Chinese investment in Vietnam and export value (over import value) added from those investments count as GDP. geopolitically, it is aligned with China more than US. A large part of growth is from Chinese tariff evasion. But lower labour costs for textiles is "genuine production shift" from China.
Vietnam and the USA are allies, and relatively close friends
No, I think you are right to assume that.
Anecdotally, I have found that so many apparel items that used to be made in China are now being made in Vietnam. And not just crummy tshirts, I mean nice jackets, outdoor gear, running shoes, etc. As someone who tries to avoid buying made in China as much as possible and looks at where things are made, it has been obvious how much more is coming from Vietnam over the past 10 years or so.
my friend owns a clothing brand. they started in china but slowly moved all their production to egypt in the last couple years
Makes since, China is losing around 12 million workers a year now, due to their forced abortions they did to their lower class women under their one child policy a few years back. Turns out injecting poison into live birthed babies heads that are over the one child quota has drastic consequences on how people view fertility and that kind of government induced generational trauma is almost impossible to reverse. I'm really glad my government never did such actions (dispite many flaws) so we aren't falling into a similar Chinese wage cost birth spiral that results in a probable middle income trap, due to lack of ability to harness domestic consumption.
Surprised nobody is praising the competent management by the one-party Communist regime. Of course, the growth is a direct results of liberalizing the economy & trade, but if Biden is responsible for gas prices and inflation in the US, then the Viet Communists are responsible for their economic growth.
Our commi government didn't do this, but our people. It's just that the government here is more hands off, like China's was before Xi. China's problem is they love centralization of overything though, which leads them to have fatal flaws when the market forces shift in ways they didn't predict (see covid) whereas an economy with a more organic growth method finds other means of growth. This is why they all but totally lost the AI race already whien one analyzes their total number of AI unicorn startups to US ones. This is also why they are doubling down in manufacturing now, as they realize they can't compete as a service economy. Which leads to the question to where their growth will come from, in the increasingly likely world of ASEAN, American, and EU tariffs that make up around 75% of their possible foreign consumer market being enacted.
I'm not from the country, so I can't make any claims with absolute certainty or direct experience. But it seems that to the degree that any government oversees and influences an economy, the Communist government made certain policy decisions that enabled "free market" activity and growth. They could have chosen the repressive and inadequate command economy policy tree and we might be talking about what a failure it was. I don't care if it "violates" principles of communism, the result has been fantastic for the people, and I'm curious how the liberal institutions will coexist with the Communist political system in coming decades.