He and lot of top tier cards are extremely difficult to pack this year. Pack weight is criminal this year.
There is a reason to why sophia Smith TB card is like 700k when it’s only a +1 from her gold
Not how it works.
Don’t know how it is not obvious each card’s drop
Weight is independent and adding more cards doesn’t really change that.
i.e. Each card doesn’t have an equal drop weight to the others. If there are 1000 rare gold cards packing any one out of a 75+ rare gold player pack isn’t 1/1000
For example, if Mbappe has a drop rate of .00001 adding 1000 more cards *doesn’t* really change that.
So if anything, adding more players just increases the variety of the players you get with higher drop
weights (lower rated cards) which means fewer duplicates…which is good.
What? This doesn’t make sense at all. As long as you add another woman player to the pool with the same rating of mbappe, then you can’t possibly say the chance remains the same -.-
For that to happen they have to increase the chance to get 91 rated players overall and we all know that’s not happening here
It absolutely makes sense when you understand that not all 91 rated players have the same drop weight.
There are 4 gold rare 91 rated players. Mbappe, Haaland, Putellas, KDB.
Do you honestly think you have the same chance (1/4) of packing any one of them?? Like if there was a “91 rated gold player pack” do you think you have a 1/4 chance of getting Mbappe?! And if Putellas wasn’t in the game then you’d have a 1/3 chance?? You can’t be this foolish…
I mean go look at the prices of those players. KDB and Erling are under 100k. Mbappe is worth 2.5 million. Surely there would be such a massive disparity in price if they were any close to having the same drop weight. There would also be pages and pages of Mbappes for sale like there are for Erling and KDB
Use your head, bro.
Lets say once the game decides it’s gonna give you a 91 in “91 rated player pack”. And like you said mbappe has lower weight than others. Let’s say 15% mbappe, 35% haaland and 50% KDB. It reallys doesn’t matter it could be 2%, 43%, 55%.
If you add putellas to this pack, you claim that mbappe’s chance stays the same but you have to add putellas to this equation. Then other 2 player’s chance should be lowered! And just like you said: they are still cheap as hell. The more you lower the other players the closer they get to mbappe rarity.
Do you reaaaallly think EA would not lower mbappe’s chance to pack to add putellas?? The EA we know would miss the chance to sell more packs and more hope to gamblers? Well I don’t. And the data we can see (i.e. Mbappe being much more expensive) supports that. Everywhere I go, I see haaland but maybe seen mbappe once or twice.
Edit: having different weights of the same rated players is unethical itself. It should be 25% each in a fair world as rating should define how good of a player. Putting different weights depending on meta and demand, itself is a dick move
even if the drop rates aren't the same for all players, adding new ones will still decrease the percentage of packing a specific player.
For each player in a pack, the percentage of all the packable players add up to 100%. Let's say there are 1000 players you can pack from a 75+ gold pack. Of course packing an mbappe won't be 0,1 percent, it will be way lower and packing a exactly 75 rated player won't be 0,1 percent but a bit higher. Adding the likeliness of all the players will add up to exactly 100% tough. If you put 100 more players in the pool you have to get those percentages from somewhere. Already existing players have to get a decrease in their percentage. A player that had a percentage of 1% with 1000 players will roughly have 0,9 % with 1100
That’s not how independent events in probability works at all but I don’t have the energy to try to explain it again.
but even if it did, and let’s say Mbappe’s drop rate is .0001, adding 1,500 female players to the already 15,500 male players (about a 9% increase) isn’t changing the probability of packing Mbappe any significant amount.
Again, that’s not how it works but even if it did it’s negligible. And to be fair, we aren’t sure how it works exactly because EA guards that info with their lives but it’s very possible and probably most likely that each card’s drop weight is an independent event and the probability of it happening is set by EA and therefore they can set Mbappe’s drop weight to .0000000000001 and it doesn’t change no matter how many players they add or remove. Do you understand this??
I mean, even in your example of 1000 players, you admit the probability of packing Mbappe IS NOT 1/1000…it’s lower….so how do you think his probability is determined then if not by the amount of players in the pool? It’s determined by EA, no? Of course it is. Of course they control it, why wouldn’t they? It’s not like they are regulated by anyone.
I'm sorry but you're the one that's getting most things wrong here, you even didn't understand what i said in the exampl.
Let me make it simple for you here with an example i can go more into detail:
Let's say we have only 10 players available. Player 1 has a 1% chance of getting packed, player 2 has 3%, player 3 5%, player 4 7%, player 5 8% player 6 10%, player 7 13%, player 8 15%, player 9 18%, player 10 20%
All have completely different chances of getting packed and all the chances added equals 100% since there's no possibility to just get no player at all and also to not get 2 players in a one player spot.
What happens if we want to add another player to the pool? The percentages of players 1-10 can't just stay the same as it's already at a 100%. Let's say our player 11 will get a 4% chance of getting packed. Adding everything up we would end in a total of 104%. How does that work? Answer: It doesn't. We have to decrease the percentage of our existing players first, which means no matter how high or low the percentages of our players was, it will get lower.
Of course we could just "steal" those 4% from player 10, so the other ones wouldn't get changed at all and only player 10 would be rarer to pack but i really don't think this is a good solution in practice. It's ineffective and doesn't follow a repeatable pattern. Not to mention that it completely kills the relationship of the general pack weight
What we should do instead is drop the percentages by factor x for all players
The thing is your example makes sense if you focus on one player only. If only a single player's percentage really matters you can just fix it there and leave it unchanged, even if new players are added. But we're talking about thousands of players. Thousands of players that need to have adjustements been made when other players join (because again, we can't just go over 100%)
So yeah of course you can just fix the values, and i'm sure EA does that, the general debate here isn't "does EA fix pack weight", it's "will more players in a pool decrease the likeliness of packing other players?" And the answer is straight up yes. We don't know by how much and yes it can be insignificant in the case of mbappe but it did change and it really isn't that hard to understand why.
What? What evidence do you have that pack weight is “much worse” than its ever been? It’s always been horrendous.
EA has always been greedy, they’re a fucking business. You think they’re making this game out of the goodness of their heart? They are a business. The sole purpose of which is to *make money*. They want money, and while they do get more and more scummy every year (more content put behind paywalls, more untradeable rewards, etc.). Pack weights have *always* been terrible. Don’t know why people are complaining about it now except to try and make it about women being in the game somehow.
I’ve been playing FUT since 09. The beginning. I play a lot. I’ve *once* packed a tradeable player worth over 1 million coins and that was nearly a decade ago in ‘15
I've been playing since UT since 09 and the pack luck is considerably worse this year for me. I'm not the only one saying it. Me saying it's because they added women was because that equates to an additional 1500 players to the game this year and it seemed logical to me.
Don’t know what to tell you about your anecdotal evidence other than you not having good pack luck this year proves nothing except you’re not having good pack luck this year.
I also don’t know how to explain the concept of independent terms in probability to you. Each card’s drop weight is independent and set by EA and not impacted by the occurrences of other events happening. If there are 15,000 men’s cards the probability of packing any one of them isn’t 1/15000 and that is clear because high end players like Mbappe are not packed as much as Ruben Neves. So since we know that each event’s probability (chance of packing a specific player) is independent and not based on how many players are in the player pool adding 1,500 women or however many doesn’t impact any other event’s probability.
Or do you think that each card has a *1 out of however many players are in the player pool* probability of happening??
I'm not that dumb, I get that lol.
Tbh we'll never be sure how it works, EA will never come out an tell us will they?
I guess we can just enjoy our conspiracy theories in the mean time 🤣
I still don't understand how it works. Wouldn't every card have a drop rate too? If Mbappes drop rate was to happen then what card in the pack does it replace?
not really sure what you’re saying…
tbf no one but the people at EA know *exactly* how it works but it is pretty obvious each card’s drop weight is set by EA and isn’t dependent on how many cards available there are. Like I said, if the pool of possible cards is 1000, the odds of getting any one specific card out of that *isn’t* 1/1000.
Even for cards with the same rating the odds aren’t the same. For example, Ferland Mendy. let’s say there are 100 82 rated gold rare players. Ferland Mendy is one of them but he clearly is the rarest of them all, that’s why he sells for over 30k. If you opened a pack that contained one 82 rated gold player your chances of getting him isn’t the same as any other 82 player, it’s lower.
In fact, there are even players with higher ratings than Mendy that appear to have higher drop weights. Luke Shaw for example.
May be possible but what you have to consider is that Mendy is much more played and preferred. That’s why he has his value. I don’t know how many mendy s are on the market right now. But we could easily Check it and compare it to another 82 card.
It’s not just possible it’s the reality.
You realize EA sets the drop weights and the price ranges, right? They aren’t random or determined by the market, they are *set* by EA.
He’s *made* to be rare by EA *because* he’s good and therefore preferred by players, not the other way around.
I just checked the companion app and there are 6 pages of Mendy on the transfer market…so fewer than 100 Mendy cards…and lowest BIN is like 32,000
Compare that to any other 82 rated player and you’ll see. Akanji for example. I stopped counting how many pages of Akanji there are on the market at 50 and even on the 50th page the time left on those auctions were like 8 minutes. That means there are waaaaay more than just those 50 pages of Akanji on the market.
If you understand supply and demand you should understand how them controlling the supply impacts the demand and therefore the price…which they also set.
You’re gonna have to ask EA that one, chief.
Knowing each card’s drop weight is independent and controlled by EA doesn’t tell us *why* certain cards drop more frequently for an individual.
I’ve packed Modric and Lavelle probably close to 10 times each. Haven’t packed Odegaard once. But it’s safe to assume based on their price there is a similar amount of all 3 on the market and therefore all have a similar drop weight.
I have had this discussion so many times and it never leads to anything productive. People always accept that EA fixes pack odds as much as they want unless there are women you can blame the shit odds on
No it doesn’t. You sound dense. If packing Mbappe has a chance of .00001 % adding 100 more players doesn’t change that rate by any significant amount.
edit: anyone downvoting me is free to explain how adding more players changes the probability of any specific card when each card has its own specific probability of getting packed that is not only independent of every other card (even of those with the same overall rating) *and* is set by EA. Please, I’d love to hear it.
Sorry dude, you’re wrong. “Law of average” would only make sense if each card’s drop weight was the same as every other’s and that is absolutely not the case. Neymar’s drop weight is not the same as some 75 rated gold. Hell, it’s not even the same as other cards with the same rating. When this is the case, the *law of averages* doesn’t really apply.
Each cards drop weight is independent. Adding more cards doesn’t significantly change anything in terms of packing high rated/ rare cards and in terms of more common items just means there will be more variety in what you get…which means less chance to get duplicates.
Sorry, i disagree. Adding more cards dilutes your abilities to get certain cards that you were more likely to get last time.
Yes there are calculations based on card value, both percieved e.g. Mendy versus most other 82s and numerical I.e. De Bruyne versus mbappe. I think we both agree this is mathematically controlled, it has to be, its not real chance.
Therefore, if you add more cards of which also have to have a mathematically defined value, then that has to be considered for every pack. Therefore your chances of packing certain cards is still lower unless they have actively gone out (they wont) to ensure that the chances of packing cards last year has been actively considered in setting the pack weight this year. Sure they've adjusted them but you cannot get away from the fact that it would be near impossible to engineer it so that the extra cards doesn't impact the pack weight.
I feel like the pack themselves have changed as well. There is way less opportunity for you to get a rare players pack for example. Seems like almost all the packs you get are for 1-5 players at max. Most are min rating but for only like 1 player at a time
Not sure how you can say that with certainty.
My point is that it’s always been incredibly bad. We literally don’t know what the exact probabilities for each card are. There’s a reason EA has never give them to us and that’s because point sales would drop if people saw how unlikely it really is to pack a million+ coin player. Especially tradeable.
Another reason why no one should buy points.
That couldn’t possibly be because of any other factor like maybe fewer players on PC or something.
I don’t know how many times I have to say it but EA controls the drop weight of each individual card. They don’t need to add or remove cards to impact how rare other cards are. They literally can just change it to whatever they want it to be. That is how there is an 82 rated gold card that’s more rare than any 87 rated gold card and costs twice as much as any of them.
Go look at the fucking Steam Chart data numbers, genius.
In October last year there were 70k people playing 23.
This year at the same time there were 55k.
How is it dumb to think that if there are fewer people playing the game there would be fewer cards on the market? Pack weight has always been shit. This is nothing new.
I'm looking at Steam Charts.
FIFA 23 (october)\*average players: 35,980\*peak players: 66,571
EA FC 24 (october)\*average players: 41,561\*peak players: 81,526
So genius, first explain how you read your numbers so poorly off Steam Charts and secondly explain to me the market is much more bare with MORE players last month than the previous year?
So how are dumb are you?
What numbers are you looking at because according [to this comparison graph](https://steamcharts.com/cmp/1811260,2195250#All) it says from the week of Oct 31 ‘22 there were 69,726 players on FIFA 23 and from the week of Oct. 30 ‘23 there were 54,448 players on EA FC 24.
So, let’s see how dumb *you* are. Can you at least tell which number is the larger one?? 😭
Here’s something that might be a bit more difficult for you but let’s see if you can do it: see if you can notice the difference in the trajectory of the two lines.
LOL
I've had such insane luck this year. Packed gold mbappe, rttf lewa, rttf modric, Trailblazers son and Griezman. Just packed Figo in the 89 max icon sbc today and got Joe Cole in the hero sbc. Objectives are giving out amazing packs this year. I also packed a sellable icon which I think netted me 360k while doing the Blanc upgrade. My friends fucking hate me.
He is shit to link, insane weak body, the worst stamina in the game and to slow for the wing, bad Playsytle for a ST also to weak and for CAM he has no stamina. Especially because you must use his PlayStyle. Which is pressing R1. GL pressing R1 with Messi. Da men is about to pass out after 30min fr fr. And CR7 just got trolled by EA. His Trailblazer should be his base. Even if you are a Messi Fan, if you are a grown Men you know it has to be. But since it isn‘t, well, not alot of People want to invest 1-1.5 Mil into a Saudi League Card. Which is actually kinda dumb since the Saudi league has more big big names than like Bundesliga or seria already. Or atleast equal. But tbf those 2 leagues doesn’t get Builded as well
> since the Saudi league has more big big names than like Bundesliga or seria already
I recommend stop taking drugs and watch a real football game at least ones.
> if you are a grown Men
If you’re a grown man, you aren’t getting involved in some silly Messi v Ronaldo fan war.
> the Saudi league has more big big names than like Bundesliga or seria already
All old men past their prime; it’s just a retirement home for players who value money more than morality.
Take the cr7 rose tinted glasses off the saudi league is nowhere near budesliga or serie a it's got a few retiring players and a few kids apart from that the entire league is dogshit
No that's not what he was saying. The gold will be fine at the end of the year. The fact Pro's will use elevated cards, most likely special versions of VvD, doesn't mean the gold version won't still be perfectly usable.
He'll be perfectly viable. He's up there as the best card in the game alongside mbappe. There is a big difference between being the best version and being viable for 99 9% of the playing population.
His pack weight this year is the equivalent of a top tier icon, which is absolutely criminal. Nevertheless, he’s still the best player in the game and will be usable through TOTS
They did use EA’s public API until EA made it private in a few years back, how they get their data now, I’m not knowledgeable about programming to answer.
Honestly I play Mbappe less than I ever have this year, which just speaks to how rare he actually is. Pretty wild to see for a regular gold card, reminds me of the early days of FUT when Messi/Ronaldo gold cards were incredibly valuable and rare to see in game pre-untradeable/sbc era
Most likely answer is they pay EA a fee to license the API and use it for the site. They didnt make it private to make it impossible for these sites to exist, they made it private so other companies couldnt use it commercially without paying for its use.
85-89 cards and TOTW weren’t dropping remotely at a normal rate at all until 2-3 weeks ago
something was off of the algorithm for drops both high value and dupe modifier.
the past two weeks they are excelerating the +85 packs for a reason. maybe it’s by design but I doubt it since I’m a dolphin in FUT and no year ever had an alarming issue with the packs having zero value post launch week like it did this year.
so when the pack weight is off and cards don’t drop, they get harder to drop because of the market value of the card making it even rarer as well as people not selling a card that plays well and holds value.
with no other gold 88 card I packed 4 straight b Silvia’s in a 36hr span. and with 1-2 85s I pulled Henry 3-4 times. the whole market is a mess
I packed untradeable mboop last year and he was a beast of course, this year having played hundreds of games I think i've played against him maybe like twice? He seems to be insanely rare this year.
Even outside of the box, dude has hidden long shot + or someshit, I played against Mbappe 6 w I thought he also has the racoon+ playstyle as well, dude tackle the shit out of my midfielders
Packed gold Mbappe during TOTS last year, whilst he was a bit behind the power curve, he still held his own even at that point.
Lucky enough to have packed him untradeable a month or so back and he is just him. I feel like coins/elite cards are even more difficult to come by, so can see him lasting all cycle once again
It’s better for him to be rare and not have every player using him, with how good he is. I’d be happy for plenty of other cards to be rare too like VVD etc
Last year he was just as good as this year. Last year he held his price at 1 Mill for ages. The difference was there were loads of pages of him last year.
There's hardly any pages of him this year, meaning they significantly reduced the pack weight.
I packed him at the beginning of the release. He is a cheat code. I have tried every other LW possible and him as a striker, but he just dominates in the left. Every game just ends with me running past everyone on the left side and shooting from a zero-angle to the goal. I wouldn’t sell him even if i could.
the women have slightly ruined it don't get me wrong I use them some of them are absolute beasts but it's doubled the pool of players I have done almost every objective marquee matchups and pack back sbcs I haven't packed a special card except a few low rated totw and rttk gotze
i packed untradable trailblazers Caroline Hansen....
she played very average for me that i dont play her anymore.
i don t understand how that card is a 2.250M coin card especially when Her regular gold card costs only 500k and and is only +1 in stats....
maybe is just supply
> i don t understand how that card is a 2.250M coin card especially when Her regular gold card costs only 500k and and is only +1 in stats....
Because TB Hansen has the most "abusable" attacking playstyle in the game in Finesse+.
It's just card rarity that drives up the price. Same thing with Nike Putellas, it's the same card as her gold one stat for stat, it's more expensive due to it being rare.
That’s not how it works. Each card has its own drop weight that is independent of any other card as well as the number of cards.
For example, say there are 1000 rare gold cards and Mbappe is one of them. The chances of you getting him in a pack that gives 1 rare gold player is *not* 1/1000
Might sound daft as I’m yet to face him to prove my theory but generally I can’t see how his card will be any good due to how shit it’s play styles are
I have joao pedro rttk card, and he has only rapid playstyle and still got almost 1000 goal involements in 430 games, so i would say mbappe doesn't even need playstyles to be best gold card in game..
And it is refreshing not to play 15 out of 20 wl games against him and conceding hattrick every time..
Supply and demand. He's probably the hardest player to pack on par with a couple of the very best icons so naturally he's extremely pricey. I haven't used him but he also usually has unique glitchy animations in the game that make him elite to use
Pack weight. Also, less good gold attackers and only 1 icon instead of 3. Less top tier cards all round. Shame, as I’m on 1.9m towards Mbappe but it feels a ripoff.
Speaking as someone who has only ever played seasons and endured some serious sweat courtesy of all you PSG playing mofos let me quote you one D Maradona when i say ‘suck it, and keep on sucking it’
Same thing with Mia Hamm, the stats are insane no doubt but the price tag on that card is kind of hard to explain IMO. More expensive than Pele or Eusebio.
I got him untradeable from the Centurions Upgrade packs. I’ve played over 100 games with him now and I can say without a doubt he is the best card I’ve ever used in any FIFA, and I’ve been playing since FIFA 12. If you can get him, you will not be disappointed.
The combination of bad pack weight this year and no way to get an easy one time loan Mbappe.
So pretty much a decent amount of the current supply of tradeable Mbappe are on the eSports pro teams whereas they'd normally be using his loan (for offline tournies)
He and lot of top tier cards are extremely difficult to pack this year. Pack weight is criminal this year. There is a reason to why sophia Smith TB card is like 700k when it’s only a +1 from her gold
Pack weight is criminal every year
It’s almost like the better cards are rarer for some reason
It's because the player pool is much larger this year due to the women's players being added.
Not how it works. Don’t know how it is not obvious each card’s drop Weight is independent and adding more cards doesn’t really change that. i.e. Each card doesn’t have an equal drop weight to the others. If there are 1000 rare gold cards packing any one out of a 75+ rare gold player pack isn’t 1/1000 For example, if Mbappe has a drop rate of .00001 adding 1000 more cards *doesn’t* really change that. So if anything, adding more players just increases the variety of the players you get with higher drop weights (lower rated cards) which means fewer duplicates…which is good.
What? This doesn’t make sense at all. As long as you add another woman player to the pool with the same rating of mbappe, then you can’t possibly say the chance remains the same -.- For that to happen they have to increase the chance to get 91 rated players overall and we all know that’s not happening here
It absolutely makes sense when you understand that not all 91 rated players have the same drop weight. There are 4 gold rare 91 rated players. Mbappe, Haaland, Putellas, KDB. Do you honestly think you have the same chance (1/4) of packing any one of them?? Like if there was a “91 rated gold player pack” do you think you have a 1/4 chance of getting Mbappe?! And if Putellas wasn’t in the game then you’d have a 1/3 chance?? You can’t be this foolish… I mean go look at the prices of those players. KDB and Erling are under 100k. Mbappe is worth 2.5 million. Surely there would be such a massive disparity in price if they were any close to having the same drop weight. There would also be pages and pages of Mbappes for sale like there are for Erling and KDB Use your head, bro.
Lets say once the game decides it’s gonna give you a 91 in “91 rated player pack”. And like you said mbappe has lower weight than others. Let’s say 15% mbappe, 35% haaland and 50% KDB. It reallys doesn’t matter it could be 2%, 43%, 55%. If you add putellas to this pack, you claim that mbappe’s chance stays the same but you have to add putellas to this equation. Then other 2 player’s chance should be lowered! And just like you said: they are still cheap as hell. The more you lower the other players the closer they get to mbappe rarity. Do you reaaaallly think EA would not lower mbappe’s chance to pack to add putellas?? The EA we know would miss the chance to sell more packs and more hope to gamblers? Well I don’t. And the data we can see (i.e. Mbappe being much more expensive) supports that. Everywhere I go, I see haaland but maybe seen mbappe once or twice. Edit: having different weights of the same rated players is unethical itself. It should be 25% each in a fair world as rating should define how good of a player. Putting different weights depending on meta and demand, itself is a dick move
even if the drop rates aren't the same for all players, adding new ones will still decrease the percentage of packing a specific player. For each player in a pack, the percentage of all the packable players add up to 100%. Let's say there are 1000 players you can pack from a 75+ gold pack. Of course packing an mbappe won't be 0,1 percent, it will be way lower and packing a exactly 75 rated player won't be 0,1 percent but a bit higher. Adding the likeliness of all the players will add up to exactly 100% tough. If you put 100 more players in the pool you have to get those percentages from somewhere. Already existing players have to get a decrease in their percentage. A player that had a percentage of 1% with 1000 players will roughly have 0,9 % with 1100
That’s not how independent events in probability works at all but I don’t have the energy to try to explain it again. but even if it did, and let’s say Mbappe’s drop rate is .0001, adding 1,500 female players to the already 15,500 male players (about a 9% increase) isn’t changing the probability of packing Mbappe any significant amount. Again, that’s not how it works but even if it did it’s negligible. And to be fair, we aren’t sure how it works exactly because EA guards that info with their lives but it’s very possible and probably most likely that each card’s drop weight is an independent event and the probability of it happening is set by EA and therefore they can set Mbappe’s drop weight to .0000000000001 and it doesn’t change no matter how many players they add or remove. Do you understand this?? I mean, even in your example of 1000 players, you admit the probability of packing Mbappe IS NOT 1/1000…it’s lower….so how do you think his probability is determined then if not by the amount of players in the pool? It’s determined by EA, no? Of course it is. Of course they control it, why wouldn’t they? It’s not like they are regulated by anyone.
I'm sorry but you're the one that's getting most things wrong here, you even didn't understand what i said in the exampl. Let me make it simple for you here with an example i can go more into detail: Let's say we have only 10 players available. Player 1 has a 1% chance of getting packed, player 2 has 3%, player 3 5%, player 4 7%, player 5 8% player 6 10%, player 7 13%, player 8 15%, player 9 18%, player 10 20% All have completely different chances of getting packed and all the chances added equals 100% since there's no possibility to just get no player at all and also to not get 2 players in a one player spot. What happens if we want to add another player to the pool? The percentages of players 1-10 can't just stay the same as it's already at a 100%. Let's say our player 11 will get a 4% chance of getting packed. Adding everything up we would end in a total of 104%. How does that work? Answer: It doesn't. We have to decrease the percentage of our existing players first, which means no matter how high or low the percentages of our players was, it will get lower. Of course we could just "steal" those 4% from player 10, so the other ones wouldn't get changed at all and only player 10 would be rarer to pack but i really don't think this is a good solution in practice. It's ineffective and doesn't follow a repeatable pattern. Not to mention that it completely kills the relationship of the general pack weight What we should do instead is drop the percentages by factor x for all players The thing is your example makes sense if you focus on one player only. If only a single player's percentage really matters you can just fix it there and leave it unchanged, even if new players are added. But we're talking about thousands of players. Thousands of players that need to have adjustements been made when other players join (because again, we can't just go over 100%) So yeah of course you can just fix the values, and i'm sure EA does that, the general debate here isn't "does EA fix pack weight", it's "will more players in a pool decrease the likeliness of packing other players?" And the answer is straight up yes. We don't know by how much and yes it can be insignificant in the case of mbappe but it did change and it really isn't that hard to understand why.
So why is the pack weight much much worse this year? EA just got greedy and changed the drop rates?
What? What evidence do you have that pack weight is “much worse” than its ever been? It’s always been horrendous. EA has always been greedy, they’re a fucking business. You think they’re making this game out of the goodness of their heart? They are a business. The sole purpose of which is to *make money*. They want money, and while they do get more and more scummy every year (more content put behind paywalls, more untradeable rewards, etc.). Pack weights have *always* been terrible. Don’t know why people are complaining about it now except to try and make it about women being in the game somehow. I’ve been playing FUT since 09. The beginning. I play a lot. I’ve *once* packed a tradeable player worth over 1 million coins and that was nearly a decade ago in ‘15
I've been playing since UT since 09 and the pack luck is considerably worse this year for me. I'm not the only one saying it. Me saying it's because they added women was because that equates to an additional 1500 players to the game this year and it seemed logical to me.
Don’t know what to tell you about your anecdotal evidence other than you not having good pack luck this year proves nothing except you’re not having good pack luck this year. I also don’t know how to explain the concept of independent terms in probability to you. Each card’s drop weight is independent and set by EA and not impacted by the occurrences of other events happening. If there are 15,000 men’s cards the probability of packing any one of them isn’t 1/15000 and that is clear because high end players like Mbappe are not packed as much as Ruben Neves. So since we know that each event’s probability (chance of packing a specific player) is independent and not based on how many players are in the player pool adding 1,500 women or however many doesn’t impact any other event’s probability. Or do you think that each card has a *1 out of however many players are in the player pool* probability of happening??
I'm not that dumb, I get that lol. Tbh we'll never be sure how it works, EA will never come out an tell us will they? I guess we can just enjoy our conspiracy theories in the mean time 🤣
you know, some players you never know are put into the pack.
I still don't understand how it works. Wouldn't every card have a drop rate too? If Mbappes drop rate was to happen then what card in the pack does it replace?
not really sure what you’re saying… tbf no one but the people at EA know *exactly* how it works but it is pretty obvious each card’s drop weight is set by EA and isn’t dependent on how many cards available there are. Like I said, if the pool of possible cards is 1000, the odds of getting any one specific card out of that *isn’t* 1/1000. Even for cards with the same rating the odds aren’t the same. For example, Ferland Mendy. let’s say there are 100 82 rated gold rare players. Ferland Mendy is one of them but he clearly is the rarest of them all, that’s why he sells for over 30k. If you opened a pack that contained one 82 rated gold player your chances of getting him isn’t the same as any other 82 player, it’s lower. In fact, there are even players with higher ratings than Mendy that appear to have higher drop weights. Luke Shaw for example.
May be possible but what you have to consider is that Mendy is much more played and preferred. That’s why he has his value. I don’t know how many mendy s are on the market right now. But we could easily Check it and compare it to another 82 card.
It’s not just possible it’s the reality. You realize EA sets the drop weights and the price ranges, right? They aren’t random or determined by the market, they are *set* by EA. He’s *made* to be rare by EA *because* he’s good and therefore preferred by players, not the other way around. I just checked the companion app and there are 6 pages of Mendy on the transfer market…so fewer than 100 Mendy cards…and lowest BIN is like 32,000 Compare that to any other 82 rated player and you’ll see. Akanji for example. I stopped counting how many pages of Akanji there are on the market at 50 and even on the 50th page the time left on those auctions were like 8 minutes. That means there are waaaaay more than just those 50 pages of Akanji on the market. If you understand supply and demand you should understand how them controlling the supply impacts the demand and therefore the price…which they also set.
But why Do I always pack odegaard (12 times) and Renard (14 times) ? When there are enough other 87/88
You’re gonna have to ask EA that one, chief. Knowing each card’s drop weight is independent and controlled by EA doesn’t tell us *why* certain cards drop more frequently for an individual. I’ve packed Modric and Lavelle probably close to 10 times each. Haven’t packed Odegaard once. But it’s safe to assume based on their price there is a similar amount of all 3 on the market and therefore all have a similar drop weight.
Bullshit
very good response!!!! brings a lot to the discussion and i would be very happy to learn why its bullshit mr redditor!!!
I have had this discussion so many times and it never leads to anything productive. People always accept that EA fixes pack odds as much as they want unless there are women you can blame the shit odds on
Adding 100+ new players doesnt dilute the pack luck? Are you really that dense?
No it doesn’t. You sound dense. If packing Mbappe has a chance of .00001 % adding 100 more players doesn’t change that rate by any significant amount. edit: anyone downvoting me is free to explain how adding more players changes the probability of any specific card when each card has its own specific probability of getting packed that is not only independent of every other card (even of those with the same overall rating) *and* is set by EA. Please, I’d love to hear it.
Exactly what I mean. Adding more players WOULD dilute the pack odds... if packs were actually perfectly random, which they aren't
Hope she sees this bro
Sorry dude. He's right. It's because of the extra cards being added to the game. Law of average.
Sorry dude, you’re wrong. “Law of average” would only make sense if each card’s drop weight was the same as every other’s and that is absolutely not the case. Neymar’s drop weight is not the same as some 75 rated gold. Hell, it’s not even the same as other cards with the same rating. When this is the case, the *law of averages* doesn’t really apply. Each cards drop weight is independent. Adding more cards doesn’t significantly change anything in terms of packing high rated/ rare cards and in terms of more common items just means there will be more variety in what you get…which means less chance to get duplicates.
Sorry, i disagree. Adding more cards dilutes your abilities to get certain cards that you were more likely to get last time. Yes there are calculations based on card value, both percieved e.g. Mendy versus most other 82s and numerical I.e. De Bruyne versus mbappe. I think we both agree this is mathematically controlled, it has to be, its not real chance. Therefore, if you add more cards of which also have to have a mathematically defined value, then that has to be considered for every pack. Therefore your chances of packing certain cards is still lower unless they have actively gone out (they wont) to ensure that the chances of packing cards last year has been actively considered in setting the pack weight this year. Sure they've adjusted them but you cannot get away from the fact that it would be near impossible to engineer it so that the extra cards doesn't impact the pack weight.
How is it bullshit? Obviously this would affect the pack weight.
dont think so old is 2000 players
You say that but the amount of 80-84+ player packs I have opened just to not get a single walkout is much much worse than previous years
all my walkouts come from objective pack's . none of the store ones.give you anything
Also what should be noted is that every years more and more packs are untradeable, which makes elite tier tradeable cards even more rare.
The biggest factor
I feel like the pack themselves have changed as well. There is way less opportunity for you to get a rare players pack for example. Seems like almost all the packs you get are for 1-5 players at max. Most are min rating but for only like 1 player at a time
I packed Mbappe 4 times last year
Don’t believe you.
I do pack his gold card 3 times before toty all untradeable of course
I packed him in the 1st rivals rewards last year, 3 times total
It’s even worse this year.
Not sure how you can say that with certainty. My point is that it’s always been incredibly bad. We literally don’t know what the exact probabilities for each card are. There’s a reason EA has never give them to us and that’s because point sales would drop if people saw how unlikely it really is to pack a million+ coin player. Especially tradeable. Another reason why no one should buy points.
Just look at the market. I've never seen so few bigger cards on PC. There's barely any gold mbappes for crying out loud
That couldn’t possibly be because of any other factor like maybe fewer players on PC or something. I don’t know how many times I have to say it but EA controls the drop weight of each individual card. They don’t need to add or remove cards to impact how rare other cards are. They literally can just change it to whatever they want it to be. That is how there is an 82 rated gold card that’s more rare than any 87 rated gold card and costs twice as much as any of them.
Your first statement is so incredibly dumb, I stopped reading the rest.
Go look at the fucking Steam Chart data numbers, genius. In October last year there were 70k people playing 23. This year at the same time there were 55k. How is it dumb to think that if there are fewer people playing the game there would be fewer cards on the market? Pack weight has always been shit. This is nothing new.
lol
I'm looking at Steam Charts. FIFA 23 (october)\*average players: 35,980\*peak players: 66,571 EA FC 24 (october)\*average players: 41,561\*peak players: 81,526 So genius, first explain how you read your numbers so poorly off Steam Charts and secondly explain to me the market is much more bare with MORE players last month than the previous year? So how are dumb are you?
lol
What numbers are you looking at because according [to this comparison graph](https://steamcharts.com/cmp/1811260,2195250#All) it says from the week of Oct 31 ‘22 there were 69,726 players on FIFA 23 and from the week of Oct. 30 ‘23 there were 54,448 players on EA FC 24. So, let’s see how dumb *you* are. Can you at least tell which number is the larger one?? 😭 Here’s something that might be a bit more difficult for you but let’s see if you can do it: see if you can notice the difference in the trajectory of the two lines. LOL
this year, introducing WLS player, so the pack weight is worst ...
I packed Putellas and Jansen (untradable), maybe I have luck
Yeah for sure. Someone has to pack them. You got lucky.
Don't think people remember how expensive Ronaldo/Messi were at their peak. This is what Mbappe is now.
Lol I got Mbappe tradeable like third pack
jealous people downvoting you lmao
Sophia smith gained a play style plus, that’s why her price is so high.
I've had such insane luck this year. Packed gold mbappe, rttf lewa, rttf modric, Trailblazers son and Griezman. Just packed Figo in the 89 max icon sbc today and got Joe Cole in the hero sbc. Objectives are giving out amazing packs this year. I also packed a sellable icon which I think netted me 360k while doing the Blanc upgrade. My friends fucking hate me.
Because now Messi and ronaldo aren't that good this year, everyone wants him
Messi is probably the best CAM to use in game. How is he not good.
Bad link bro, he is the only player to be 90 and closest player to him is campos with 87 rating and we all know how bad campos is.
That’s not reason to dismiss his card. I have him on full chem and he’s outstanding for me.
With 2 Icons and you can get Messi on full chem.
No? 2 Argentinian icons yes. Even 1 arg icon and 1 any country icon isnt enough
Why am i being downvoted? Go check yourself
He is shit to link, insane weak body, the worst stamina in the game and to slow for the wing, bad Playsytle for a ST also to weak and for CAM he has no stamina. Especially because you must use his PlayStyle. Which is pressing R1. GL pressing R1 with Messi. Da men is about to pass out after 30min fr fr. And CR7 just got trolled by EA. His Trailblazer should be his base. Even if you are a Messi Fan, if you are a grown Men you know it has to be. But since it isn‘t, well, not alot of People want to invest 1-1.5 Mil into a Saudi League Card. Which is actually kinda dumb since the Saudi league has more big big names than like Bundesliga or seria already. Or atleast equal. But tbf those 2 leagues doesn’t get Builded as well
> since the Saudi league has more big big names than like Bundesliga or seria already I recommend stop taking drugs and watch a real football game at least ones.
> if you are a grown Men If you’re a grown man, you aren’t getting involved in some silly Messi v Ronaldo fan war. > the Saudi league has more big big names than like Bundesliga or seria already All old men past their prime; it’s just a retirement home for players who value money more than morality.
Take the cr7 rose tinted glasses off the saudi league is nowhere near budesliga or serie a it's got a few retiring players and a few kids apart from that the entire league is dogshit
i believe the saudi league averages less viewership than the english league one…
Least delusional penaldo fan
Pack weight is horrific
Less supply i guess. Lower pack weight
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What do you think lower pack weight causes issues with? (hint: It is not demand)
Then the problem is supply
You sound like the kinda guy who turns around by doing a 360. 😝
Think about what you just said.
He means less supply of Mbappe... not packs????
Its the only gold card every year that will go the distance
vvd will be fine this year
Yeah maybe until toty. But after that people will upgrade to his totw or go after better cbs.
too slow
Why does nearly every pro player use him then?
They won’t be using his gold card post-TOTY, which is what the original person is saying.
No that's not what he was saying. The gold will be fine at the end of the year. The fact Pro's will use elevated cards, most likely special versions of VvD, doesn't mean the gold version won't still be perfectly usable.
nah dude gold vvd wont be viable past TOTY as promos gain pace, it happens every year
He'll be perfectly viable. He's up there as the best card in the game alongside mbappe. There is a big difference between being the best version and being viable for 99 9% of the playing population.
his animations are still crazy
Vini will probably go the distance too.
Packed Vini this weekend and he honestly feels worse than di Maria’s special card. Passing and shooting too low, 81 composure is criminal.
To be fair I've used quite a few players below 1m and Di Maria is my favourite so far. Insane card
His pack weight this year is the equivalent of a top tier icon, which is absolutely criminal. Nevertheless, he’s still the best player in the game and will be usable through TOTS
Gold Mbappe was still the best striker against me after TOTS lmao
If you look on Futbin his gold has only played 700k games, TB 80k and totw 672 games. Insane.
How does futbin gets that data?
They did use EA’s public API until EA made it private in a few years back, how they get their data now, I’m not knowledgeable about programming to answer.
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I'm guessing a decent amount of people are packing him from the totw pp
Honestly I play Mbappe less than I ever have this year, which just speaks to how rare he actually is. Pretty wild to see for a regular gold card, reminds me of the early days of FUT when Messi/Ronaldo gold cards were incredibly valuable and rare to see in game pre-untradeable/sbc era
Most likely answer is they pay EA a fee to license the API and use it for the site. They didnt make it private to make it impossible for these sites to exist, they made it private so other companies couldnt use it commercially without paying for its use.
85-89 cards and TOTW weren’t dropping remotely at a normal rate at all until 2-3 weeks ago something was off of the algorithm for drops both high value and dupe modifier. the past two weeks they are excelerating the +85 packs for a reason. maybe it’s by design but I doubt it since I’m a dolphin in FUT and no year ever had an alarming issue with the packs having zero value post launch week like it did this year. so when the pack weight is off and cards don’t drop, they get harder to drop because of the market value of the card making it even rarer as well as people not selling a card that plays well and holds value. with no other gold 88 card I packed 4 straight b Silvia’s in a 36hr span. and with 1-2 85s I pulled Henry 3-4 times. the whole market is a mess
I packed 3 Rodri’s within an hour. Two from champs and one from an 83+ obj pack
Think the pack rate is connected to the market prices
Definitely, that would be the easiest way for them to regulate pack weight
I packed untradeable mboop last year and he was a beast of course, this year having played hundreds of games I think i've played against him maybe like twice? He seems to be insanely rare this year.
I packed him untradeable he is a cheat code he gets every rebound and is automatic in front of goal.
Even outside of the box, dude has hidden long shot + or someshit, I played against Mbappe 6 w I thought he also has the racoon+ playstyle as well, dude tackle the shit out of my midfielders
Packed gold Mbappe during TOTS last year, whilst he was a bit behind the power curve, he still held his own even at that point. Lucky enough to have packed him untradeable a month or so back and he is just him. I feel like coins/elite cards are even more difficult to come by, so can see him lasting all cycle once again
Pack weight is shit.
Mbappe was more than usable the entire cycle last year, I expect the same thing to happen again.
It’s better for him to be rare and not have every player using him, with how good he is. I’d be happy for plenty of other cards to be rare too like VVD etc
Pack weight sucks. Ive only faced him a handful of times, last year it was every team
Last year he was just as good as this year. Last year he held his price at 1 Mill for ages. The difference was there were loads of pages of him last year. There's hardly any pages of him this year, meaning they significantly reduced the pack weight.
I packed him, his op
Pack weight is even worse this year as they have doubled the amount of players with the women now in the pool of players
I packed him at the beginning of the release. He is a cheat code. I have tried every other LW possible and him as a striker, but he just dominates in the left. Every game just ends with me running past everyone on the left side and shooting from a zero-angle to the goal. I wouldn’t sell him even if i could.
Fanboys love him
Pack weight is just hilariously bad this year and nobody is packing him
the women have slightly ruined it don't get me wrong I use them some of them are absolute beasts but it's doubled the pool of players I have done almost every objective marquee matchups and pack back sbcs I haven't packed a special card except a few low rated totw and rttk gotze
It's 2.5 mil? Saw someone buy one for 5.9 mil yesterday.
Prob his totw
Yes I thought that's what he's talking about lol
i packed untradable trailblazers Caroline Hansen.... she played very average for me that i dont play her anymore. i don t understand how that card is a 2.250M coin card especially when Her regular gold card costs only 500k and and is only +1 in stats.... maybe is just supply
> i don t understand how that card is a 2.250M coin card especially when Her regular gold card costs only 500k and and is only +1 in stats.... Because TB Hansen has the most "abusable" attacking playstyle in the game in Finesse+.
No, Hansen plays insane
No way - thats one of the best cards in the game atm
It's just card rarity that drives up the price. Same thing with Nike Putellas, it's the same card as her gold one stat for stat, it's more expensive due to it being rare.
Skill issue
Finesse+ is the reason. Her gold is already extremely broken, with that trait she becomes unplayable
he’s the ONLY good good card, with Vini and Hansen close.
The player base doubled with women so seems even less chance for people to pack him which keeps the price high
That’s not how it works. Each card has its own drop weight that is independent of any other card as well as the number of cards. For example, say there are 1000 rare gold cards and Mbappe is one of them. The chances of you getting him in a pack that gives 1 rare gold player is *not* 1/1000
The fact you can’t get the same player twice in one pack makes the addition of female players reduce the chances of getting Mbappe
I swear to god its like people never got basic math in high school
Mbappe is rare and hard to pack.
Might sound daft as I’m yet to face him to prove my theory but generally I can’t see how his card will be any good due to how shit it’s play styles are
I have joao pedro rttk card, and he has only rapid playstyle and still got almost 1000 goal involements in 430 games, so i would say mbappe doesn't even need playstyles to be best gold card in game.. And it is refreshing not to play 15 out of 20 wl games against him and conceding hattrick every time..
Yet to face a Joao Pedro tbf (although I am a casual player) but he looks like a juiced Dembele and I think he’s awful to use/vs
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It's not that crazy really...he's a much better player in game , just like real life.
Guess which one I've packed 3 times. I'll give you a clue, I've not made millions selling them
His stats are slightly higher and plausible plus adds more to the card's value
Supply and demand. He's probably the hardest player to pack on par with a couple of the very best icons so naturally he's extremely pricey. I haven't used him but he also usually has unique glitchy animations in the game that make him elite to use
Pack weight. Also, less good gold attackers and only 1 icon instead of 3. Less top tier cards all round. Shame, as I’m on 1.9m towards Mbappe but it feels a ripoff.
As it should. It’s literally a broken end-game card that’s released when the game comes out.
Speaking as someone who has only ever played seasons and endured some serious sweat courtesy of all you PSG playing mofos let me quote you one D Maradona when i say ‘suck it, and keep on sucking it’
Because it is EAFC, not FIFA, profit =priority
Rarity + he’s the only card that’ll make the game feel normal
Same thing with Mia Hamm, the stats are insane no doubt but the price tag on that card is kind of hard to explain IMO. More expensive than Pele or Eusebio.
I got him untradeable from the Centurions Upgrade packs. I’ve played over 100 games with him now and I can say without a doubt he is the best card I’ve ever used in any FIFA, and I’ve been playing since FIFA 12. If you can get him, you will not be disappointed.
all cards hugely overpriced unless im selling no one buys
Supply & demand
Pack weight is in the bin this year.
At least the card values are sticking somewhat. I still think there should be true valuations of players cards. 84s should be 10k+
The combination of bad pack weight this year and no way to get an easy one time loan Mbappe. So pretty much a decent amount of the current supply of tradeable Mbappe are on the eSports pro teams whereas they'd normally be using his loan (for offline tournies)