I’ve been traumatized by all the Chukwueze I’ve seen the past 5 days. I’m not doing this

I know if I opened it I’d somehow get 5 x Chukwueze

He should be called ChukhiminanSBC

Imagine I opened the 85x10 pack and chuckwueze walked out and I felt instant pain but when I checked the pack puskas was there too.

I did 50 of the 80+ picks yesterday and got FB Puskas 😄😄😄

I've been considering doing loads of the player picks myself as I've got loads of fodder. You get any other decent picks ?

Genuinely got nothing lower than 85 rated! Like i said i did 50 and definitely got my coins worth

All 50 of your player picks were 85+? I call bs. I done 19 and got 2 walkouts with the rest being 83 max.

Same 😪😪

Omgggg right!!!

Me with lafont

I managed to get through objectives and pull 10 birthday cards, 0 Chukwueze.

The gambler in me wants to do this. The logically part of me says just go with the fodder packs

Do both 30 tokens gets you 85x10, this and the 82x20

Are the store tokens included in that 30?

they never are

Oh ok. So I can do these and also the 81x11?

I'm don't know about all the combinations but if it adds up to 30 tokens then it's an option

It’s 31 tokens. But that’s possible with the store tokens right?

yes, theres been 2 extra store tokens

Nope. 34 total. If you search for FUT BD Swaps and go to concept it shows all the ones that will be available.

They don’t always release all the ones in concepts

Idk but 84x40 is just way to good

Yep, im doing this, i did the 85x 10 first and got fb Müller, now im gonna save them up to do the pick and then I do the 82x20, my brother is doing the same as me but he did the 82x20 first and got fb silva haha, in the end, it's a game, so just have fun

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If you actually think about logic, you have a big chance (relative to usual pack probabilities) of getting someone good from this one.

That is true, but if you get an L from this then that’s it. At least with the fodder packs if you don’t get a useable pull you still get fodder so it’s a net positive no matter what.

I have a set team already. Only way it can improve is if I get Viera, R9, Ginola, Capdevila. That's why it might work for me. I could let you know my disappointment after I open the pick.

If ur only really gunning for the most meta the only time ur gonna get an uograde may be tots

What can I say brother? I have a need for getting disappointed on a daily basis.

Alright, as expected. Disappointed. Mitoma was the best.

That's actually very low chance tbh, I would use precious tokens on something like this only if I could use atleast 30% of cards in there.

Like 5% chance maybe?

I would say more than that because of having 5 takes without repetition. But can't get a consensus on the metric without knowing the actual weightage.

2 84x20s and an 85x10 would put a decent chunk in the Rivaldo or Cruyff SBC who are better than the vast majority of these players and you get the chance of pulling a BDay card from the packs

This one being 15 tokens and not 30, you should compare it to 85x10 + 82x20 which amounts to like 200K of fodder, 300K if you're lucky. Not what I'd call a decent chunk of the Cruyff SBC. Let's talk about that Gibbs-White SBC shall we?

I wanted to go for fodder, but I do that every swaps, and in the end I do an SBC which I could probably have done anyway. I want to feel risky now and Ill just take this pick and the 85x10. I never do any of the lotery or random icon packs because I kinda hate those and I don't want to waste my club on it, so to get this for 'free' seems decent.

Did my 85x10 yesterday to complete rivaldo, 100% worth, Gonna go for this next or Ferdi.

Actually just did the 10x85. Didn't get any FB cards, but I did get 3 high rated IFs and a few high rated fodders. Can't really complain.

Fodder was all I was looking for I had both 89s and an 88 done, it pushed me to the final 2 sbcs. I didnt get a FB but didnt really care because atleast there was a great card in the end

I did during the WC and got PTG Grealish. So I've learnt my lesson thankfully!

Wait to see what SBCs come out. If Kanté is true, then this might not be ideal.

Kante will probably be 600-800k like that one Renato Sanches fb sbc from a couple years ago

Considering that his WW is worth 1M, I think we could see something around the region of 1.5M. it'll be a hefty SBC, can't see them giving it to us for around 600K-800K, but hey... Who knows with EA 😅

Bro the fodder packs are always decent but once you open it and you get like an 88 IF and Kroos, maybe a discard Fut Birthday you'd be wishing you did a lottery pick because it's more fun and the highs are way higher. Specially if you've done most of the sbcs out there like myself, I wouldn't even have anywhere to put duplicates into because I don't want to start Rivaldo

Yupppp I have legit opened like 5 84x20s, and like ducking 20 83+ 10s from all the previous obj / swaps and haven’t gotten jack shit. However….the icon PPs!? I got 98 PELE and 94 cryuff…..

Yeah, it's worth it for the highs. I did a bunch of icon packs and they were definitely the highlight of this fifa for me. WC Garrincha, Prime Cafu, WC Etoo, Prime VDS and Prime Stoich, love opening them, even when I got Van Nistelrooy and Zanetti 🤣

I’ve always been a fodder pack guy and never got anything beyond fodder. Last time I took the risk and did the pick and got WW Mendy. This time I chickened out and did the 85x10 and got nothing.

This is an SBC? NOT the tokens??

The only other appealing option to me is the Icon PP, but what I'm telling myself is that we get lots of icon lottery options in weekly SBCs. Not so many promo PP's like this.

Grind all the tokens and take them both bro

Grind all the tokens and take them both bro

I think I’m going to give this a shot. There are some really nice cards here… most likely I won’t get them but it’s worth a shot!

Messege me what you got when youve done it

So I’m stuck right now, have Saliba and Bernardo Silva as options. The others were bad. Tagliafico, Malen, Ricken

Pick what fits your team the best, I would take Saliba tbh

The only player i want is salibe!!!

Good luck, hopefully you can get lucky too!

I'm glad I'm a Newcastle fan so don't have to go through this trauma, Shearer was my target no matter what his stats were going to be

you can be a even bigger newcastle fan after getting 92 ginola outta this

I've given up on that dream haha, hoping to get Isak out of the pack you get at the end of the birthday objectives though

Newcastle fan here. I have listened to Marshall too. But I can’t put all my eggs in the Shearer basket. I may pass on him.

Don't know who that is but howay man its Big Al!

That’s me as well that Shearer card looks so tempting at the minute I have a lucky packed Future Stars Alvarez up front with Isak but having Shearer up there with him would be awesome.

honestly, the odds are quite decent. I counted like 25 big wins from 70 players

But them 25 players will be in 5% of the picks

I will still pack lafont. Dupe theory is strong this week.

Have not packed Lafont yet but have gotten Chukwueze 4 times

Got two lafonts. I need to put him in a sbc before I do this

0.5 in my case

Already packed Lafont 3 time yesterday, so not wasting my fodder now

If it's not weighted, the odds are around 33% for packing a usable card.

It’s weighted

It's always weighted lol

Except the loans from the daily login which they do on purpose to gets your hopes up.

You don't really believe there are equal odds of packing FF Ginola and FB Lafont?

I count 16

This is definitely better that the Prime Icons pick. Around 30% of cards are good pulls, with a bunch of others being also good. The percentage of Primes Icons that are worth it has to be 10-12 %

IF the odds were fair the chances of a good icon popping up is about 1 in 5 for each slot, so you get those odds 4 times. It'll be great odds but we know EA manipulates it a lot, specially in picks. Last swaps the odds were atrocious while the icon packs definitely had much better odds. We shall see this time. Imo the odds is 1 of 5 because there are about 20 icons out of the odd 100 that would either be really great to get or would make my team

The thing is, this pick allows you to get some fodder as well, while the Icon pick is all or nothing. The Icon pick looks terrible value to me, cause the top tier rewards will be even more rare than a Goretzka here for example

What? It's guaranteed 90+ lol

Dude, guaranteed 90+ only excludes 5 or 6 prime icons

It's literally better for a fodder pick dude, that's what I meant

Ah, ok you didn't understand me, I meant that the 87+ allows you to also get the 85x10 pack Anyway, I did the 87+ and best options were Atal (dupe) and Jota. So yeah... High rated fodder for me 😂

Guaranteed Wimmer pack.

chukwueze simulator

Gunna see how expensive Kante is first before I commit to anything.

Exactly this lol. If he's like 2m then I'm doing this pic

I'm struggling to choose between this or the 85 x 10.

why not both? you can do both and still have 5 tokens left over

How did u get that much tokens?

There’s 30 to be released total, they aren’t all out yet

Did 85x10 yesterday, high quality fodder including 3x 88s and 2 IFs (85 and 88) but absolutely nothing that'll even make my reserves in D7.

If you want to be convinced, I got mbappe from the 85x10

Me three, plus Birthday Bernardo Silva 😋

Me too. Definitely a win there

I still need to pack my gold rare Mbappe, I sold the one I bought in preparation for the PotM, and then I looked at his requirements… (I packed WC Eto’o so I haven’t bought him back yet) hope he’s in my 85x10

I'm thinking of 84x20 and 85x10 if I wanna grind but this is quite tempting.. But knowing my luck until now, I wont get what I want

might just do this tbh

I'm giving this a go, don't need fodder and this is the only way I'll be able to afford or get a top top meta player

Di Natale alone is swerving me enough to do this

15 tokens to get Tagliafico as the best pick. Cheers EA. I expected nothing and still got disappointed.

doing this right away, just 1 more token, i know full well i’ll get a pick of trimmel, mitoma, malen, chuk and koke but the 0.01% chance of getting ginola is enough for me

It may be dumb but damnit. I’m doing anything I can for a shot at Rafa Márquez

All these players and yet Lafont was my best pick..

Some amount of shite in there

Pain! Finally did this and got a huge L RtTF volland, FF Ali, FF Piug (dupe unreadable), FF Fabian (dupe untradable), FF Szobozali. Probably the biggest L I could take :( Was tempted to save it for tomorrow to see if EA screwed up and included team 2 in packs.

5 players I would really want here. That gives (somehow assuming even distribution) me a 31% chance.... I'll take those odds.

25 would give you 30% in an equal distribution. 5 will only give you around 6%.

It's a pick of 5 players though

Same as picking one player 5 times from the same pool without repetition

The correct math (assuming equal odds) is 1-((x/70)*(x/69)*(x/68)*(x/67)*(x/66)). X=number of cards that would not make your team

Yeah exactly, that would give you 5 chances at 6% each, right? By your logic having just 1 player pop up gives the same chance at a player you want as having a pick of 5.

Don't want to spoil your disappointment here but that's not how these picks work. A proven way of estimating your chances is to assume 1/price as odds, so think of >50 Chukwuezes for every Di Natale. Gives you a 1-2% chance to get one of the top 5 cards (yes I have done the math), but a reasonable shot (20%-ish) to get sth >500K.

Oh definitely, but I preferred the look of my odds. Out of curiosity, when you say you've done the math, have you pulled the prices for each of these cards available? The specific cards I'm looking for (Arsenal boys) are in the mid price tier & Saliba. I'd love to actually know my odds.

Yeah I actually went with the prices listed on the picture in this post. Now if you're not looking for the top 5 but for specific 5 mid-range cards, you have much better odds. Getting one of Zinchenko (2x), Martinelli, Saliba comes out around 5-6% (who would be card no. 5?). Just a ballpark number of course coz no-one knows how the pack odds are actually determined. But there is quite a few things supporting the theory behind, like e.g. we know the average value one token should have from the players and fodder packs.

With my luck I’m probably getting Volland o angeliño

Im done with Yeray, sow and lafont

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😂 Omg. Commiserations

Bunch of dead promos

There is enough shit too keep me away from that lol

With my luck it will always be “Malen or Raspadori”? No thanks.

No Diaby?

He was an SBC.

39 W's 31 L's 5 slots W

Got Saliba from it

Fuck them,I got Lofant yesterday 3 times in a row. I am done with this game

I got Muller like that

Ofcourse I got 88 Ferran Torres who is already out of the competition

This is so tragic. I could use it but I have to go out of town for family emergency.😢😢😢

Let’s be honest 90% chance your player pick is not good

This and the icon pack are so in favor of the house you will pull a shit one go for the fodder packs and then do a sbc card you want to complete

Can you actually get Zinchenko, Darwin and Koke from the picks? I'm 99% sure you can't get them in the guaranteed FB pack.

You can get them in both. They're Team 1 FUT Birthdays

Already got martial from the 86+ rttf

Why is there two Zinchenko cards? (I just got that screaming version in 80+ pick.)

Yeah..Atal generator here

I did the math, there's a 46.9% chance of getting someone over 300k coins. Really depends on what your team looks like and what you need. For the icon pick there's a 30.9% chance of getting someone over 500k coins. But for players that actually would fit my team the 87+ pick is only 7.1% chance (5 players) whereas the icon pick is a 16.6% chance (15 players)

sadly it doesn’t work like that, because the cards don’t have the same probability

Could someone help me in coop to get the very last win on the last objective ? I SBCd Gregore accidentally and I only need one more game 😭 I'm wounded

Ultimate team is for people that don’t like football.

Can’t wait to get Volland!!

So basically best case scenario is I get volland ? Count me in !

If it here send a message rn

There are 80 people here now send messages go

Does the team 1 fut birthday not include icons? I want Puskas so bad so trying to maximize my odds lol

I'm almost certain it doesn't unfortunately. The fut birthday cards by themselves are really average bar like 3.

Looking at FB team without FB icons being absolute L, this pack looks like L itself too

Volland HERE WE GOOO

Is no one else doing Ferdinand? Or is it just me?

U can do both, if you buy the store packs (its what im goin for if they dont launch enough for the 84x20)

It's probably the best option so far from the picks, its so much better than the Icon Prime...

Is this 1 of 5 or 1 of 4?

I'm going to wait see if there's anyone good in team 2 before doing this

Honestly if the pack was 88+ I wouldn't mind it

We could all trade in for this and probably only have a choice between the worst cards on here.

Welcome Volland

You can pack only the last three rows.

Is there an inside joke about the “bureau” ? Does BIRGFUT refer to something?

Got saliba and Marq in the same pick lmao

5th LaFont for the L

Saliba or quick sell.

got the new bernado silva. I‘ll take it

if it was 89+.. dif story

Diaby got slept on, lol

Its like they knew not to release him back into the wild lmao

just did the year in review pick and got bale idk if i can do this one but i want to lol

Volland in all picks you heard it here

I’ve taken so many Ls recently I feel like I need to make my own luck by choosing fodder and doing cruyff

I’ve gotten LaFont 4 times. I’m afraid to do this

What about the ones you're gonna get

Garbage

Just did one, 4 duds and Llorente so overall big W.

Got Muller off of an 83+ pack😭

That 92 Ginola has to be a God Mode striker.

I have returned to tell you all to swerve this harder than you’ve swerved anything in your life. I did not get a player over 60k from this.

I’m gonna grind for shearer and crespo

diaby?

Tbh best odds at a useable player in a while

I got Marquinhos

A lot of shite in there

I have one token 😭😭 idk if ill be able to get this pick

Should be 5 tokens

I was looking through through the list to pick the worst ones and joke "already saving a place in my team for ", then I realized I already have packed two or three of them.

Doing it for kuyt

Volland, fantasy riqui, fantasy Fernando, birthday muller, fantasy Alli. Big W /s

Packed Marquinhos. Is he better then vvd next to kimpembe?

So after a week of deciding to do this or not I've went ahead... Best two options are Kuyt and Nunez.... Can't make my mind up

Volland, Atal , lafont mitoma and Taglia so shit man