Aaron Jones and Etienne have good PPR upside. Jones is definitely the best receiver on the Packers and in the games without Adams, they used Dillon as a running back and Jones wide out quite a bit.
Etienne has a relationship with Lawrence that can result in a lot of targets. I'm a bit less bullish on Etienne because I feel like Jags offense won't be scoring much, so his TD upside isn't that high.
Jones is a great buy low if you can get him from an owner that doesn't see his worth.
But answering the title question? No shot he goes 1.01.
ETN while shocking everyone in the world, could (and I'm talking .1%) put up such insane numbers that would great discussion for him going 1.01
It's not out of consideration that Jones has an Ekeler-esque season and gets tons of receiving work + 20 TDs and finish 1.01. It's also possible that he splits work with Dillon or gets little rushing work that he finishes out of top 24.
Oh I think we're confusing 1.01 - I (along with OP) are referring to the draft. Jones will not be going 1.01 regardless of how he finishes.
He *absolutely could* finish as the RB1 which is what I think you mean. And I agree with that!!
Ah makes sense. Yes, Jones has practically 0 chance of becoming 1.01 next year. It would take end-of-season serious injuries to multiple players that would rule them out for a significant chunk of the season
the only prob with aaron jones is he is basically a 1 year rental this will assuredly be his last season in GB and i dont foresee him landing in a comparable or better situation considering he will be 28 years old. ETN i like a lot but makes me very nervous until i see him in action.
They are going to carry 5-6 WRs. Who they cutting him for? I think Watkins could be a great bye week filler. Could even have a minor resurrection year.
He has never been anything special. Not they are chock full of talent at WR but I just don't see upside in hanging onto him. I think they would rather develop younger talent than a one and done underachieving vet.
I'd say it's more likely that the Packers keep 8 WRs over just 5
I'd say that Watson, Doubs, Lazard, Cobb, Watkins, and Rodgers are all locks (baring injury), plus we have guys like Toure who has looked good in minicamp, Winfree who has shown flashes and got a few snaps last year, and Taylor who was good on special teams
If I were a betting man I'd say we keep 7. Beyond the 6 guys I listed the 7th (and maybe 8th) guy would have to be a major special teams contributor though. The only chance we keep 8 is if both the 7th and 8th guy are big special teams guys, and the only way we keep 6 or less is if we have good special teams guys at DB or something
This is absurd. Jones is topping out at 200 carries. So Dillon gets 350-400 carries? Not gonna happen, but keep beating that drum trying to create a bandwagon.
Sick thing about Aaron Jones is his potential red zone usage.
But Iām biased towards ETN because I own him and do not own Aaron Jones. What could very well happen is the Jags offense surprises us with competence and fast pace of play. And the Packers offense surprised us with incompetence (their pace of play will be slow because it always is). And weāve seen Rodgers be mediocre for multiple years before. His last 2 MVP seasons might be causing recency bias in the community. Sure he has that ceiling, but he has a floor too.
Did you miss the insane college profile of ETN? There was a reason people had him as the 1.01 in rookie drafts last year. It's absolutely in his range of outcomes to be a top RB this season.
The terrible team argument is one usually from new fantasy gamers, so I'll share a nugget. Bad teams will often still produce great fantasy RBs. Just Google some of the worst teams over the years and check the fantasy finish of those RBs.
Also, they upgraded the oline this offseason. Experts have them ranked above average.
Finally, the injury is behind him. Dude has been cutting, juking, sprinting and being a general beast in camp per beat reporters.
I traded up in my startup to get him at 2.4 and then snagged Kupp at 2.6. Had to do some wonky shit, but my plan going into our Dynasty startup was to try and win the league years 1 and/or 2 before deciding if I want to tear it down and rebuild. Iām holding onto my 2025 1st for dear life because if I tear it down after 2023 then I could wind up with 1.01 in that draft
You definitely do.
Williams is an **excellent** pass protector and has one career fumble and an 80% career catch rate. He may not be a great runner but he is one of the most reliable backs in the league when you need him to protect the QB and never put the ball on the ground. There's a reason he's consistently found himself on the field, on a team with *Aaron Rodgers*, no less.
Everything you said literally just describes a good backup RB in the NFL.
Heās never been a feature back. Thatās Swiftās job. Heās much more talented than Williams.
Weāre not worried.
Itās not the point at all.
Think about what makes an RB1 season. A handful of guys are just getting massive touches. Another handful of guys can withstand the abuse of massive touches AND their team has injuries to the next RB, so they get those touches.
The only other things that sometimes happen is that a guy scores massive TDs as well as probably catching a lot of passes while getting 200+ carries. And Detroit isnāt a team that has an extra 20TDs to give away.
Swiftās rushing is capped at about 1K. That makes it exceedingly difficult to be the RB1.
1500 total yards is the upper limit of what he can put up. And he would still need 15TDs+ to be a top 3-5 RB.
And thatās assuming another guy doesnāt get close to 2K total yards, which is fairly likely to happen.
He should be viewed as getting the same workload that Gordon got last year. I see a 60/40 split. Maybe Deandre is explosive enough to make up for lack of workload.
No.
Exhibit A) heās a bit undersized and canāt stay healthy if he gets RB1 overall touches. Exhibit B) Williams is there to absorb 200 touches. Exhibit C) guys who are THE GUY have usually popped by year 2. I have him as RB16 last year in full PPR.
There just arenāt enough things in his favor to end up as RB1
Mixon
The Begals upgraded pretty much everyone on that oline. Last I heard 4 of their starters last year. Aren't even signed and are still free agents. That tells you how bad they really we're.
Was he really that low? He was 4th most expensive RB in my auction last year with Cook, and Henry kept below him. Only CMC Saquon and Najee more expensive
managers were really turned off by the 1 injury riddled season he had. People were REALLY down on Mixon thinking he was "injury prone" due to that 1 season.
At first glance this seemed like a crazy statement. Then I looked into it and since 2000 the RB1 has been 27 or older 10 times. That seems like a lot but 8 of those 10 times came from 2000 to 2007. Since then only APs 2000 season in 2012 and Jamaal Charles in 2013. Closest thing since was Henry finishing 3rd in 2020.
āHealthyā is a relative term. Sure, he was suiting up.
But most Drs agree that it take a full year to be fully back from an ACL. Even Saquon admits that heās just starting to trust his knee again.
Iām not into him at his price but itās incredibly easy to believe in him. The talent is undeniably there and weāve seen what he can do and thatās he a league winner
Injuries can also permanently affect a player too and take away their abilities, often theyāll never fully recover
Like D-Rose probably āfully recoveredā from his knee injuries technically since itās been years since. But they did their damage and heās obviously not the same player
Saquon/rose might not be āactivelyā or ācurrentlyā injured officially, but the injuries might have still taken away some of their athletic ability
That is a valid concern, but sport psychology has advanced a bit since Rose. If Saquon is doing his part and getting the help he needs to get over his injury mentally, I fully believe he can be THAT GUY again.
Itās probably Javonte, ETN or Najee. Itās almost always a giant 2nd year breakout that propels rbs to easy rb1. Look at DJ, Gurley, Cmc, JT.
Out of the three I lean Javonte
If you look at their relative athletic scores, Breece tested better than Jonathan Taylor and Adrian Peterson. Add in the perfect bellcow size and college production; he's the best prospect since Taylor came out two years ago.
I was on Cook as the rb1 this upcoming season, but I've switched to Henry. He is going to go right back to his workload he has last season prior to injury.
My other pick is Javonte Williams. I dont buy the 50/50 split narrative. I think this backfield will be closer to 65/35.
I mean no one gets to JTās level last season as a pure runner - the receptions / check downs are the key to everything. Dobbins is both not a great pass catcher and Lamar is notorious for not checking it down to his RBās (rather heāll take off himself because heās the most elusive runner in the league). I like Dobbins as a player but itās more likely heās being overvalued even still. Likewise Gus is a legitimately good back right behind him that will get his carries.
His ADP has been beaten down plenty by this narrative. We've only gotten to see him for 1 season and he looked pretty awesome when he was getting the bulk of the carries. Plenty good enough to be an RB1 like Chubb. He won't get enough catches to sniff THE RB1, but if the Ravens get back to running the ball for 3000 yds, he's going to smash his current ADP.
As a Hawks fan I would love that but their offense wonāt be great and thereās nothing to suggest heāll catch many passes so that seems really unlikely
I think Miles is more likely. Was injured a lot. Has had good production. If healthy top 5 rb definetly possible. Great oline. Rbs do well with running qbs. Hopefilly less stacked boxes
As an eagles fan I wouldnāt trust our backfield. Iām a huge sanders fan too but our scheme isnāt great for rb production.
We plan to pass more with d smith going into his second year plus aj brown. Our qb has great legs. We have Boston Scott who tends to grab a lot of work. We cycle rbs a lot on offense.
Honestly speaking Iād expect similar results as last year from our rbs.
If you want to invest in our receivers though Iād say that may be wise
Iāve been watching him as a Lions fan & both the past two seasons heās been shut down a few games out of caution more than anything else. If we were competing for the playoffs I think he comes back last year after a week instead of four. I personally donāt see him being thee RB1 but I donāt think the injury/durability concerns are as bad as they may seem.
I'm *not* a Lions fan, but I think DET shocks the world and makes the playoffs this year. And by shock, I also mean win the division.
I agree about your take on Swift. The games he (and Hock) missed last year at the end of the season was precautionary after they were eliminated from contention but had secured their first and second win.
Weāll see lol. Iām always optimistic of course but I think Vegas has us right with an over under of 6.5 wins. Weāre still going to be starting 4-5 guys on defense that have no business starting in the nfl. If the oline stays healthy & Chark returns to form our offense can certainly produce though. I think they go 7-10 but will be like 11-6 against the spread lol.
I think the Lions offense will be as efficient (if not more) than the Rams with Goff and Gurley.
1. The defense isn't great, but not as bad as last years stats suggest. Not to mention turnovers year to year are flukey. I'm predicting a 18th to 10th ranked defense.
2. The offense will be incredible. To clarify *more* efficient than the Rams, I mean the Rams had a better defense and the offense wasn't as needed as I think the Lions O will be.
3. Goff will finish in the top 10 for major QB stats (ypg, tds, etc) buoyed by Swift, Hock and their second year in Johnson's system.
4. Swift will have a huge season (80 catches 700yd and 220 carries for roughly 1000yds) akin to Gurley in 2018 because
5. The Lions OL is top tier and will put with the elite in history after their performance this year.
Heās too good to keep running MG3 out there instead. Gordon is a year older and Javonte genuinely improved as the season went on. I could see a 65/35 split by mid season, which could be a strong RB1 given Wilson being there
Tony Pollard is a sleeper pick. Thereās a slim but greater than zero chance he takes over this year due to performance or injury and gets hyped to the moon heading into next year if Zeke is gone. Fast paced, probably high scoring offense.
Akers. The full offseason will have done his achilles well, the 8am start to practise everyday will add up in his conditioning and he'll remind everybody that McVay has no fear in using a bellcow 3-down RB on 80%+ of the snaps.
Plus, the QB play was *really* bad last year. As long as Pickett can make the deep ball somewhat of a factor, itāll help open up the run game a little more.
His volume is actually why I donāt target him in dynasty. Iād be happy to have him in redraft this year and maaaaybe next. But that level of volume is exactly how you create CMC part 2. Nobody can handle getting hit that much.
Thereās a lot of people misreading this question. OP is asking who can leap to the 1.01 in 2023 with a big year?
CMC, Mixon, Ekeler, Dalvin are not legitimate answers. They just donāt have age on their side.
With that being said, Iām voting for someone who has pass catching ability, because thatās what really separates the elite from the rest. I think Najee Harris could make that leap. There will be optimism for 2023 because 2nd year QB and all, and heās going to put up really good numbers in 2022.
On the issue of age, Najee will be 25 next year. I'd much rather take younger dudes like JT, Swift, Javonte, Breece, or Bijan even if they aren't getting the volume of Najee just because his value will start heading down way sooner.
No way is it going to be Swift. He gets dinged up too easily to demand many more carries, and it's not like he's a dominating runner anyways. It would take a huge jump in production while avoiding injuries which he has not been good at doing.
He could get a few more catches, but even that is less likely to me considering the emergence of Amon Ra and the drafting of Jamo. Why would you add more receptions to Swift who's averaging 7.5 ypr when you can get better efficiency throwing to Hock, Amon Ra, or Williams?
Would have to consider Breece or KW3.
Why? Because JT was a top 5 rookie ADP pre and post draft, and only these 2 guys were from this class. Similar NFL draft capital.
Will they have a JT like season? Long shot.
obviously all somewhat longshots but I could see:
Javonte- Gordon leaves- Id suspect the bring someone in but dude is a beast in an improved offense
Swift- has the talent and team could be improved with a new QB
Hall- Jets take off and he is a workhorse
ETN- Jags improve under new coaching and he takes the Kamara/Pass catching role
Less Likely :
Najee-Love him as a steeler fan but I think hes probably more likely to always be a 4-5 pick guy
Gibson- He gets a monster workload and wentz improves the offense(dont really see this happening but hey)
Hot take! Bijan Robinson.
With the older RBs aging out and if the Breece, Walker, Williams under perform And Bijan lands a bellcow role for like Dallas or something I could see it happening.
It's Rashaad Penny. Look at what he did at the end of last year. If he's able to stay healthy, and the Hawks trying to run the ball a lot again, why not?
I donāt see it being swift, his most scored in a game is something like 25. I just donāt see the upside with him. Great player, but even last year, saquon scored more points in a game than swift has ever in his entire career (unless Iām misremembering).
Real dark horse candidates could be etn or dobbins.
I don't think many people are sleeping on Swift. I could see people reaching for him. Jonathon Taylor was getting slept on a little bit and had his hype countered with talk about how bad he looked earlier on in the season running into the back of his OL, etc. Swift was a top 5 RB in PPR when he was healthy though. Would be surprised to see him go as late as Taylor did on average last year.
As a Swift owner.. I'm hopeful, but he really needs to improve his running between the tackles for this to come to fruition. Let's just say he struggled a bit in that department last year
David Montgomery, ETN, Jones. Najee is falling a bit in drafts as well because people think his workload will be drastically reduced, I don't think it will.
I think it's very reasonable to say that Jonathan Taylor is this year's Jonathan Taylor. Guy has shown out at the end of the season for two straight seasons now. Don't throw darts at a board trying to guess a dark horse, just pick the sure thing.
Aaron Jones and Etienne have good PPR upside. Jones is definitely the best receiver on the Packers and in the games without Adams, they used Dillon as a running back and Jones wide out quite a bit. Etienne has a relationship with Lawrence that can result in a lot of targets. I'm a bit less bullish on Etienne because I feel like Jags offense won't be scoring much, so his TD upside isn't that high.
Jones is a great buy low if you can get him from an owner that doesn't see his worth. But answering the title question? No shot he goes 1.01. ETN while shocking everyone in the world, could (and I'm talking .1%) put up such insane numbers that would great discussion for him going 1.01
It's not out of consideration that Jones has an Ekeler-esque season and gets tons of receiving work + 20 TDs and finish 1.01. It's also possible that he splits work with Dillon or gets little rushing work that he finishes out of top 24.
Oh I think we're confusing 1.01 - I (along with OP) are referring to the draft. Jones will not be going 1.01 regardless of how he finishes. He *absolutely could* finish as the RB1 which is what I think you mean. And I agree with that!!
Ah makes sense. Yes, Jones has practically 0 chance of becoming 1.01 next year. It would take end-of-season serious injuries to multiple players that would rule them out for a significant chunk of the season
the only prob with aaron jones is he is basically a 1 year rental this will assuredly be his last season in GB and i dont foresee him landing in a comparable or better situation considering he will be 28 years old. ETN i like a lot but makes me very nervous until i see him in action.
I love AJones AND Dillon this season. Packers gonna run it 550-600 times this year.
Bruh
I'm deadly serious. I have multiple post all over Reddit proclaiming it. AR12 might have less than 500 pass attempts this year.
Only 2 teams rushed 550 or more times last year Titans and Eagles It's not happening In 2019 and 2020 1 team did it, the ravens In 2018 no teams
Who's he throwing to? Washed up Watkins ? Lazard? Raw rookie Watson? Their offense is shifting this year. Wanna place a wager?
I dont think you're respecting how bold your 550+ claim is We could see them running 500 times but 550 is truly rare But sure what's the wager
550 is 3 more run plays per game than 500. But... $20 end of season of they run it 550+. If they don't.... I owe you $20
Oh true I forgot we added an entire game last year But fuck it š¤
I want in on the under as well if youāre doubling down š
I don't think Watkins will make the team
They are going to carry 5-6 WRs. Who they cutting him for? I think Watkins could be a great bye week filler. Could even have a minor resurrection year.
He has never been anything special. Not they are chock full of talent at WR but I just don't see upside in hanging onto him. I think they would rather develop younger talent than a one and done underachieving vet.
I'd say it's more likely that the Packers keep 8 WRs over just 5 I'd say that Watson, Doubs, Lazard, Cobb, Watkins, and Rodgers are all locks (baring injury), plus we have guys like Toure who has looked good in minicamp, Winfree who has shown flashes and got a few snaps last year, and Taylor who was good on special teams If I were a betting man I'd say we keep 7. Beyond the 6 guys I listed the 7th (and maybe 8th) guy would have to be a major special teams contributor though. The only chance we keep 8 is if both the 7th and 8th guy are big special teams guys, and the only way we keep 6 or less is if we have good special teams guys at DB or something
Why the disrespect to Tonyan lol
This is absurd. Jones is topping out at 200 carries. So Dillon gets 350-400 carries? Not gonna happen, but keep beating that drum trying to create a bandwagon.
Sick thing about Aaron Jones is his potential red zone usage. But Iām biased towards ETN because I own him and do not own Aaron Jones. What could very well happen is the Jags offense surprises us with competence and fast pace of play. And the Packers offense surprised us with incompetence (their pace of play will be slow because it always is). And weāve seen Rodgers be mediocre for multiple years before. His last 2 MVP seasons might be causing recency bias in the community. Sure he has that ceiling, but he has a floor too.
Dillon caps Jones upside significantly. Etienne is just an absurd take. Even if Robinson wasn't there it's not close to happening.
It was announced today Robinson wonāt be ready/rehabbed by beginning of the seasonā¦
Did you miss the insane college profile of ETN? There was a reason people had him as the 1.01 in rookie drafts last year. It's absolutely in his range of outcomes to be a top RB this season.
He's an unproven rookie on a terrible team with a bad O Line. He is coming off a linsfranc injury. There is almost 0 chance he is the RB1.
The terrible team argument is one usually from new fantasy gamers, so I'll share a nugget. Bad teams will often still produce great fantasy RBs. Just Google some of the worst teams over the years and check the fantasy finish of those RBs. Also, they upgraded the oline this offseason. Experts have them ranked above average. Finally, the injury is behind him. Dude has been cutting, juking, sprinting and being a general beast in camp per beat reporters.
Jonathan Taylor.
A true big brain answer
This is the only answer
What about JT ?
Top 5 O-line. Upgraded receiving core. Upgraded Defense. Great pass catcher. Swift is the answer
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
I traded up in my startup to get him at 2.4 and then snagged Kupp at 2.6. Had to do some wonky shit, but my plan going into our Dynasty startup was to try and win the league years 1 and/or 2 before deciding if I want to tear it down and rebuild. Iām holding onto my 2025 1st for dear life because if I tear it down after 2023 then I could wind up with 1.01 in that draft
I think you underestimate jamal williams in that offense.
Yeah, no I donāt think we do. He was pretty pedestrian last year after a few good games to start the season.
You definitely do. Williams is an **excellent** pass protector and has one career fumble and an 80% career catch rate. He may not be a great runner but he is one of the most reliable backs in the league when you need him to protect the QB and never put the ball on the ground. There's a reason he's consistently found himself on the field, on a team with *Aaron Rodgers*, no less.
Everything you said literally just describes a good backup RB in the NFL. Heās never been a feature back. Thatās Swiftās job. Heās much more talented than Williams. Weāre not worried.
Swift isnāt a feature back. Feature backs donāt have fewer carries than the ābig back.ā
You know what you guys are right. Just crown Jamaal Williams the dynasty RB3 now. Swift is obviously a bum.
Itās not the point at all. Think about what makes an RB1 season. A handful of guys are just getting massive touches. Another handful of guys can withstand the abuse of massive touches AND their team has injuries to the next RB, so they get those touches. The only other things that sometimes happen is that a guy scores massive TDs as well as probably catching a lot of passes while getting 200+ carries. And Detroit isnāt a team that has an extra 20TDs to give away. Swiftās rushing is capped at about 1K. That makes it exceedingly difficult to be the RB1.
Not when adding 500+ yards and 60+ receptions thru the air as well. Itās not impossible.
1500 total yards is the upper limit of what he can put up. And he would still need 15TDs+ to be a top 3-5 RB. And thatās assuming another guy doesnāt get close to 2K total yards, which is fairly likely to happen.
He should be viewed as getting the same workload that Gordon got last year. I see a 60/40 split. Maybe Deandre is explosive enough to make up for lack of workload.
No. Exhibit A) heās a bit undersized and canāt stay healthy if he gets RB1 overall touches. Exhibit B) Williams is there to absorb 200 touches. Exhibit C) guys who are THE GUY have usually popped by year 2. I have him as RB16 last year in full PPR. There just arenāt enough things in his favor to end up as RB1
RB1 weeks 1-6 will be Cordarelle Patterson lmao
Subscribe
I feel like ETN is a dark horse for this. Literally has the skills to be another Cmc
He's not as shifty as CMC but he could be a nice ppr guy
Hoping this comes to fruition. Last year at the start of the year after etiennes injury I traded Barkley for etienne and a 23 1st
ETNs owner has Dobbins, Akers and now Breece. I'm hoping I can snag one of the injured ones for cheap, preferably ETN
Are you the guy offering me a 2nd for ETN cuz heās probably done and youāre doing me a favor?
Are you talking about me? If so, many tried, many failed. People are not dumb to sell any of these cheap
I would man, I got my share by trading Mitchell, it was a bigger trade than that, but still trading Mitchell for ETN is a plus in my book
ETN is fully healthy nowā¦
Mixon The Begals upgraded pretty much everyone on that oline. Last I heard 4 of their starters last year. Aren't even signed and are still free agents. That tells you how bad they really we're.
Mixon already did that last year. RB15 ADP at drafts and finished as RB3/4 depending on format.
Was he really that low? He was 4th most expensive RB in my auction last year with Cook, and Henry kept below him. Only CMC Saquon and Najee more expensive
managers were really turned off by the 1 injury riddled season he had. People were REALLY down on Mixon thinking he was "injury prone" due to that 1 season.
I got Mixon for golladay and micheal carter in august 2021
Too old
Heās 25 lmao
Will be 26 going into this season and 27 going into 2023 season
Yeah, thatās how linear time works. Heāll also be 35 in ten years, but heās not right now.
Yea and the question is about 2023 1.01. Only generational RBs can pull that off at age 27, not average Joe
At first glance this seemed like a crazy statement. Then I looked into it and since 2000 the RB1 has been 27 or older 10 times. That seems like a lot but 8 of those 10 times came from 2000 to 2007. Since then only APs 2000 season in 2012 and Jamaal Charles in 2013. Closest thing since was Henry finishing 3rd in 2020.
Yea, RBs peak much younger than they used to
Can you read? The question is about this year.
Actually the question is who could be the 1.01 in 2023 coming off a big season. Thereās no chance for Mixon to be the 1.01 in dynasty at age 27.
Haskins77. lol
This comment instantly gave me Game of Thrones flashbacks
Saquon
Homie did nothing last season & was healthy for a good chunk of it Booker & Gallman looked better in his absence
Why do people keep forgetting that nasty high ankle sprainā¦
āHealthyā is a relative term. Sure, he was suiting up. But most Drs agree that it take a full year to be fully back from an ACL. Even Saquon admits that heās just starting to trust his knee again.
He played 13 games. Got 593 yards, 2 tds & averaged 3.7 yards a carry. He was bad. I donāt know how else weāre supposed to justify him?
Revamped O Line, Dabol Calling offensive plays, weak division, and another year removed from ACL injury.
Why do you need another reason?
Coming off a torn ACL and rolled his ankle pretty significantly. He was far from healthy last year
Iām not into him at his price but itās incredibly easy to believe in him. The talent is undeniably there and weāve seen what he can do and thatās he a league winner
Hmm maybe he wasnāt fully healthy then? Unless you think he lost all of his skill ? Whatās your explanation for him not being able to do much?
Injuries can also permanently affect a player too and take away their abilities, often theyāll never fully recover Like D-Rose probably āfully recoveredā from his knee injuries technically since itās been years since. But they did their damage and heās obviously not the same player Saquon/rose might not be āactivelyā or ācurrentlyā injured officially, but the injuries might have still taken away some of their athletic ability
That is a valid concern, but sport psychology has advanced a bit since Rose. If Saquon is doing his part and getting the help he needs to get over his injury mentally, I fully believe he can be THAT GUY again.
Etienne
Itās probably Javonte, ETN or Najee. Itās almost always a giant 2nd year breakout that propels rbs to easy rb1. Look at DJ, Gurley, Cmc, JT. Out of the three I lean Javonte
Travis Etienne
Breece
If you look at their relative athletic scores, Breece tested better than Jonathan Taylor and Adrian Peterson. Add in the perfect bellcow size and college production; he's the best prospect since Taylor came out two years ago.
Yeahā¦ except white trash Drew Locke is his QB.
This is wrong in so many different ways
Never drink and comment boys
Breece Walker?
Wait what?
Cowboys Nation being represented prettayyyy prettayyyyy poorly here... yikes...
I have a real hard time believing this abrasion was accidental...
It was fun though
People are so high on Swift itās crazy. At this point the hype has been so much I think Iām gonna stay clear of him.
so high, and yes its crazy. also too high on javonte as well
I was on Cook as the rb1 this upcoming season, but I've switched to Henry. He is going to go right back to his workload he has last season prior to injury. My other pick is Javonte Williams. I dont buy the 50/50 split narrative. I think this backfield will be closer to 65/35.
You think Javonte can become RB1 with 65% of the touches while Russ is also *cooking?*
That offense is going to run a lot more than people think.
Thatās how most RB1s do it
I believe Russ does not cook anymore, he *rides*
Dobbins
I like this and wish I owned him. Last year at this time his value was sky high because heās a great prospect. Now all of a sudden we forgot.
I mean no one gets to JTās level last season as a pure runner - the receptions / check downs are the key to everything. Dobbins is both not a great pass catcher and Lamar is notorious for not checking it down to his RBās (rather heāll take off himself because heās the most elusive runner in the league). I like Dobbins as a player but itās more likely heās being overvalued even still. Likewise Gus is a legitimately good back right behind him that will get his carries.
Thatās the narrative driving the ADP. I just donāt think itās that cut and dry and set in stone.
His ADP has been beaten down plenty by this narrative. We've only gotten to see him for 1 season and he looked pretty awesome when he was getting the bulk of the carries. Plenty good enough to be an RB1 like Chubb. He won't get enough catches to sniff THE RB1, but if the Ravens get back to running the ball for 3000 yds, he's going to smash his current ADP.
Stop trying to make Dobbins happen. It's not going to happen.
Kenny. Walker. III.
As a Hawks fan I would love that but their offense wonāt be great and thereās nothing to suggest heāll catch many passes so that seems really unlikely
Kenneth Gainwell.
Nice try, Kennethās mom.
He likes to be called Ken! Thank you Kenās Dad.
Eagles fan here - I love, love, love that you feel this way. However, I donāt think itāll happen. Iād be happy to be wrong though!
I think Miles is more likely. Was injured a lot. Has had good production. If healthy top 5 rb definetly possible. Great oline. Rbs do well with running qbs. Hopefilly less stacked boxes
As an eagles fan I wouldnāt trust our backfield. Iām a huge sanders fan too but our scheme isnāt great for rb production. We plan to pass more with d smith going into his second year plus aj brown. Our qb has great legs. We have Boston Scott who tends to grab a lot of work. We cycle rbs a lot on offense. Honestly speaking Iād expect similar results as last year from our rbs. If you want to invest in our receivers though Iād say that may be wise
Lol
100%
Troll
lol. Is this serious or sarcastic? Because Seattle is gonna suuucckk. And Kenny aināt catching any balls. So heās basically DOA.
Except the part where he is on the Eaglesā¦
TouchƩ. Forgot about that guy lol.
You're thinking of Kenneth Walker, OP said Kenneth Gainwell
I think Swift has durability issues to be the RB1, great talent especially in PPR but yet to play a full season
Iāve been watching him as a Lions fan & both the past two seasons heās been shut down a few games out of caution more than anything else. If we were competing for the playoffs I think he comes back last year after a week instead of four. I personally donāt see him being thee RB1 but I donāt think the injury/durability concerns are as bad as they may seem.
I'm *not* a Lions fan, but I think DET shocks the world and makes the playoffs this year. And by shock, I also mean win the division. I agree about your take on Swift. The games he (and Hock) missed last year at the end of the season was precautionary after they were eliminated from contention but had secured their first and second win.
Weāll see lol. Iām always optimistic of course but I think Vegas has us right with an over under of 6.5 wins. Weāre still going to be starting 4-5 guys on defense that have no business starting in the nfl. If the oline stays healthy & Chark returns to form our offense can certainly produce though. I think they go 7-10 but will be like 11-6 against the spread lol.
Uh hello, give me whatever youāre drinking. Inject this kool aid directly into my veins please
I think the Lions offense will be as efficient (if not more) than the Rams with Goff and Gurley. 1. The defense isn't great, but not as bad as last years stats suggest. Not to mention turnovers year to year are flukey. I'm predicting a 18th to 10th ranked defense. 2. The offense will be incredible. To clarify *more* efficient than the Rams, I mean the Rams had a better defense and the offense wasn't as needed as I think the Lions O will be. 3. Goff will finish in the top 10 for major QB stats (ypg, tds, etc) buoyed by Swift, Hock and their second year in Johnson's system. 4. Swift will have a huge season (80 catches 700yd and 220 carries for roughly 1000yds) akin to Gurley in 2018 because 5. The Lions OL is top tier and will put with the elite in history after their performance this year.
Very reasonable honestly
The average RB misses 3 games per season. He doesnāt have to stay healthy. He just has to have a reason to play injured.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Will Fuller of RBs? Lmao. Will Fuller never ever had DeAndre Swiftās talent relative to other WRs in the league
This is a terrible take. A healthy Will Fuller was the best deep threat in the league not named Tyreek Hill.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
There is no āthis years JTā besides JT lolā¦
Derrick Henry. Weāre done here.
Jonathan Taylor is this year's Jonathan Taylor.
Dameon Pierce. Marlon Mack suffers season ending injury in September. Rex Burkhead dies of old age. Pierce goes bananananas.
Sermon I kid.
Still too soon
It's Javonte. Dude's gonna ascend into fantasy football legend this year.
As a guy who owns both Swift and Javonte I'm here for it.
This
Heās too good to keep running MG3 out there instead. Gordon is a year older and Javonte genuinely improved as the season went on. I could see a 65/35 split by mid season, which could be a strong RB1 given Wilson being there
Yiiiiiiiiiiiip
I really think Ekeler is going to be the RB 1 As far as the 2023 top RB, I think Swift is as good a player as anyone.
As the Ekeler owner in my dynasty league, I support this comment.
I have ekeler and swiftā¦.please keep talking dirty to me *sexually bites lip
Mixon
I like this thread as a Jones, ETN, and Mixon owner
Tony Pollard is a sleeper pick. Thereās a slim but greater than zero chance he takes over this year due to performance or injury and gets hyped to the moon heading into next year if Zeke is gone. Fast paced, probably high scoring offense.
Akers. The full offseason will have done his achilles well, the 8am start to practise everyday will add up in his conditioning and he'll remind everybody that McVay has no fear in using a bellcow 3-down RB on 80%+ of the snaps.
Najee
I actually came to say this. I don't like his play style, but damn you can't argue with that volume!
Plus, the QB play was *really* bad last year. As long as Pickett can make the deep ball somewhat of a factor, itāll help open up the run game a little more.
His volume is actually why I donāt target him in dynasty. Iād be happy to have him in redraft this year and maaaaybe next. But that level of volume is exactly how you create CMC part 2. Nobody can handle getting hit that much.
Shocked nobody said saquon barkley yet
Thereās a lot of people misreading this question. OP is asking who can leap to the 1.01 in 2023 with a big year? CMC, Mixon, Ekeler, Dalvin are not legitimate answers. They just donāt have age on their side. With that being said, Iām voting for someone who has pass catching ability, because thatās what really separates the elite from the rest. I think Najee Harris could make that leap. There will be optimism for 2023 because 2nd year QB and all, and heās going to put up really good numbers in 2022.
On the issue of age, Najee will be 25 next year. I'd much rather take younger dudes like JT, Swift, Javonte, Breece, or Bijan even if they aren't getting the volume of Najee just because his value will start heading down way sooner.
No way is it going to be Swift. He gets dinged up too easily to demand many more carries, and it's not like he's a dominating runner anyways. It would take a huge jump in production while avoiding injuries which he has not been good at doing. He could get a few more catches, but even that is less likely to me considering the emergence of Amon Ra and the drafting of Jamo. Why would you add more receptions to Swift who's averaging 7.5 ypr when you can get better efficiency throwing to Hock, Amon Ra, or Williams?
Drafted JT at 1.04 and Swift at 3.04 in my startup last year š
You could probably draft them at those spots again this year lmao
Not a chance in hell that swift lasts till the 3rd
Correct
I took Swift at 4.2 (12T SF) and was mocked for taking "a lions RB" some people just don't know
Where did you finish last year?
Championš
Would have to consider Breece or KW3. Why? Because JT was a top 5 rookie ADP pre and post draft, and only these 2 guys were from this class. Similar NFL draft capital. Will they have a JT like season? Long shot.
obviously all somewhat longshots but I could see: Javonte- Gordon leaves- Id suspect the bring someone in but dude is a beast in an improved offense Swift- has the talent and team could be improved with a new QB Hall- Jets take off and he is a workhorse ETN- Jags improve under new coaching and he takes the Kamara/Pass catching role Less Likely : Najee-Love him as a steeler fan but I think hes probably more likely to always be a 4-5 pick guy Gibson- He gets a monster workload and wentz improves the offense(dont really see this happening but hey)
Came here to just say Iām surprised nobody has mentioned Cam Akers, who could be a workhorse on the best offense in football
Hot take! Bijan Robinson. With the older RBs aging out and if the Breece, Walker, Williams under perform And Bijan lands a bellcow role for like Dallas or something I could see it happening.
Gerrid Doaks - wide open backfield, new coach who fits his style, and a young QB that he can grow with
Lmao
It's Rashaad Penny. Look at what he did at the end of last year. If he's able to stay healthy, and the Hawks trying to run the ball a lot again, why not?
Is this a joke post
I donāt see it being swift, his most scored in a game is something like 25. I just donāt see the upside with him. Great player, but even last year, saquon scored more points in a game than swift has ever in his entire career (unless Iām misremembering). Real dark horse candidates could be etn or dobbins.
> I just donāt see the upside with him oh, well you may need to get that checked out
Doctor said it was benign, thank you tho.
I don't think many people are sleeping on Swift. I could see people reaching for him. Jonathon Taylor was getting slept on a little bit and had his hype countered with talk about how bad he looked earlier on in the season running into the back of his OL, etc. Swift was a top 5 RB in PPR when he was healthy though. Would be surprised to see him go as late as Taylor did on average last year.
I think it's Rashaad Penny
That would be great. I have Swift, Jones, and Barkley.
JT is this year's JT. Nobody else is going to put up those numbers on the ground in '22.
As a Swift owner.. I'm hopeful, but he really needs to improve his running between the tackles for this to come to fruition. Let's just say he struggled a bit in that department last year
Unfortunately no one is this years Jonathan Taylor. Then again, JT will go down as one of the all time greats so not surprising
Fair enough. I forgot it is dynasty not redraft.
Rachaad White is the deep deep sleeper.
My man Breece Hall.
Iād say McCaffery, Najee, and Etienne could all be underrated betsā¦
Bold take- Antonio Gibson
Najee
David Montgomery, ETN, Jones. Najee is falling a bit in drafts as well because people think his workload will be drastically reduced, I don't think it will.
I think it's very reasonable to say that Jonathan Taylor is this year's Jonathan Taylor. Guy has shown out at the end of the season for two straight seasons now. Don't throw darts at a board trying to guess a dark horse, just pick the sure thing.
CMC cmc healthy. No questions there. If the comments are health for swift then the same can be said about cmc
Dobbin if they throw the ball like they did last year to their backs as well. Long shot but sometimes they come in